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Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Comments

From end of last thread:

Chris: I am necessarily suggesting we go sign another righty. Just saying, how about using a young bat (i.e. Mayberry) for 2 weeks until Lidge/Romero come back.

We don't really need another RH bat at this point. Whoever you would get would never see any playing time either way and would likely suck as a result. The bench is set.

Besides, Ross Gload is a career .298 hitter against LHP. He can pinchhit against lefties and not kill you.

Oh boy, BLErs are going to have a field day on this guy.

Sounds like a stiff to me.

He had a -18 OPS+ last year for the Yankees. You read it correctly, -18 OPS+, a career 43 OPS+.

He also has a career .704 OPS in 8 minor league seasons.

Still can't find the Phillies signing/picking him up from the Yankees anywhere.

NEPP: Again, I am not suggesting signing another guy. Simply moving a RH bat up from the MiL to add depth instead of having Francisco being your only hitting option.

As I said, Gload is an acceptable option against LHP and he won't be neutered by a pitching change like Mayberry.

If I were GM, every year there would be a September callup who can steal a base. This September may be time to use Quintin Berry, but if not this guy sounds like he'll do.

The real question is whether Guzman could win a foot race against Willy Mays Hayes.

Gload was good against lefties over only 135 PA that spanned 3 seasons, that skew the stat. Skewed stats? No surprise there.

The past 2 seasons Gload vs. LHP look as follows:

2008: 105 PA, .263/.286/.303/.589

2009: 32 PA, .194/.219/.194/.412

Apparently, he lost his magic touch against lefties that he had during the 2004, 2006 and 2007 seasons.(which only totaled 135 PA's by the way)

The Mets are now saying they don't have the cash to go after Yorvit Torreabla or Jarrod Washburn.

So, HOW MUCH did they actually lose in teh Madoff thing? I'm thinking they lost far far more than has been admitted.

The impact Guzman would have as a pinch runner is probably about 100x higher than the impact Juan Castro will have on this team.

Prediction: Guzman will be with another team by July. Quintin Berry will do.

Good to know that Lehigh Valley will have a suitable replacement in CF should DeWayne Wise go down with an injury...

Last I saw the Mets lost about 50 million in the Madoff deal, but who really knows? I don't think there's any way to get the actual numbers short of a subpoena.

As for Mayberry, I'd rather have an extra arm in the bullpen as the starters get stretched out in the early season, where weather issues tend to be more prevalent.

Mayberry is a classic AAAA player to me...Big swing with big power when he connects, but too many holes that can be exploited by major league pitchers.

****Good to know that Lehigh Valley will have a suitable replacement in CF should DeWayne Wise go down with an injury...****

That was good for a LOL.

Lehigh is gonna have a great defensive OF.

So, um, did anyone want to take a bet on whether a 38 year old Juan Castro will be able to top Gnome's impressive 22 OPS+ from last year?

OPS+ Last 3 seasons:

Gnome: 51
Castro: 42

Chris: That number has changed. In the last week or two, Wilpon said the number was "only" $7mil or so.

Television programming note:

Rube and Charlie will be on the "Hot Stove" tonight @ 6 on the MLB Network.

I saw that it was their public (read: Must Disclose) charity that lost $7 million...nothing about their personal finances (guessing a bit larger and a bit more shady so they aren't eager to disclose it)

NEPP: With that Bruntlett/Castro comp. along with me proving that the Gload career ave. vs. LHP is skewed, it is even more of a reason to bring Mayberry(or someone else from LV that can hit) up to hit off the bench until Lidg/Romero return. We need other options besides Ben Francisco.

NEPP: Castro probably beats the 22 OPS+, but if all is going well, he should play far LESS than Gnome. If Polanco shifts to 2B for Utley breathers and Dobbs plays 3B those days than Castro should only get 1-3 starts at SS (KNOCK ON WOOD!) and occasional late inning defense replacement duties.

What's the point of having Mayberry for a week or two? If you have an issue with the construction of the bench then propose a permanent solution.

Its a shame we don't have that Jason Donald guy anymore to give J-Roll a few games off at shortstop and be another RH bat off the bench. Did we trade him or something?

According to Uncle Junior clout Donald never had the makings of a Varsity athlete! Well, at least not a SS. As clout is more often right than (s)he is wrong, I see no reason to question their wisdom on that point.

Seems like Guzman is the second coming of Herb Washington.

I think Castro is going to play more than people think. I think he'll play more than Dobbs and Gload actually.

I thought future All-Star John Mayberry Jr. was the RH bench bat? Did tommythetroll change his mind on him?

Freddy Guzman is who Anthony Gose will become if the Phils scouts are wrong about him.

MPN: You can get away with Donald at SS for awhile just like you could get away with Mark Loretta there. But the lack of range will hurt you over the long run. I could see Donald being an everyday player at 2B, however.

JW - If Castro plays often, who's the So Taguchi/Eric Bruntlett of 2010? We know someone's always buried on the bench, and I doubt it'll be Gload. Dobbs?

JW: But will he play in 72 or 120 games like Bruntlett did for the Phils in 2009 and 2008, respectively?

JW - Nah. Castro will be 25th man on the roster and seldomly used as PH-option unless Cholly has run out of options. Can't imagine that Castro starts more than 2-3 times a month.

My bet is that Castro plays more often a bit earlier in the season, shows that he is largely washed up, and ends up being buried on bench by the time Sept. callups roll around. Means about 100-110 ABs.

I expect Castro to be what he is - a throughly washed up vet who is going to hit .220-.230 with zero pop, pitiful OBP because he hardly takes a BB and is a hacker, and is at best average defensively at SS/2B.

Castro is like Bako last year. He was once a productive MLB player who brought some definite skills to the table. Those days however are past.

During their recent run, the Phils have managed to upgrade or field capable options at every position except utility INF. It has largely been dreg after dreg there including the worst player to put on a Phils' uniform in the past 25 years (No-Hit Nunez).

Still can't get over how many people are excited about the Phils' upcoming season (including women who aren't really sports fans), how many people are wearing Phils' stuff, and the huge uptick in Phils' blog.

If this was circa '98 or '99, there would be a handful of serious Phils' blogs (maybe 5-6). Now you have at least 2 dozen serious ones that cover everything and anything Phils-related. Guess 3 playoff straight NL East titles, 2 straight World Series appearances, and 1 WFC changes things a bit.

JW: So you believe the team when they say Rollins and Utley will get more days off this year?

Personally, I'll believe it when I see it.

"I thought future All-Star John Mayberry Jr. was the RH bench bat? Did tommythetroll change his mind on him?"

Aww, clout. Are your feelings still hurt because I caught you flip-flopping and called you out on it?

Actually, I did suggest Mayberry as the RH bat off the bench as the most logical option. Try reading the thread instead of just saying random nonsense.

Also, clout, how is your boy Savery doing? Last time I checked he hasn't been everything you expected him to be.

"If this was circa '98 or '99, there would be a handful of serious Phils' blogs (maybe 5-6). Now you have at least 2 dozen serious ones that cover everything and anything Phils-related"

MG, unfortunatly it won't last forever. After 2012 when some of the big names go, the bandwagon fans will move on and my section at the bank will be 3/4's full again.

Same goes for the blogs.

It is "cool" to be a "baseball fan" these days. Just like it was "cool" to be a Sixers fan in 2001, a Flyers fan from when they got Forsberg until last year and a Eagles fan in 2004-2005. Now, I can buy a ticket for any game with no problem for the other sports (except the Eagles, but StubHub still has about 1,000-4,000 weekly there).

When you win, it breeds an extra large fan base.

2012+ Phillies dread is sort of like the dread leading up to Y2K.

holy sh*t! did tommy just make sense?!?!

I'll use the post-2012 fan drop off to upgrade my season tickets. It's been hell the past couple of years. I'm still stuck in right field. The seats themselves aren't bad, but on the afternoon games, the freaking sun beats down on them like its the middle of the Sahara.

Just a hunch, but I think J-Roll gets more rest this season and would have had more last year if Bruntlett wouldn't have been so pathetic. I think we'll see plenty of Castro at short and third and very little Dobbs and Gload in the field.

kutztown fan: Yea good call. I remember back when the Bank first opened I sat out in right during a day game. And all I did for 3 hours was pour water on my head, it was so hot.

I am on the 3rd baseline and they are really nice. It is cool watching Perlozzo giving signs to the runners and batters, and being able to look into the Phillies dugout.

Another seat I like is on the 2nd and even 3rd level (first 5 rows) directly behind home plate. Really cool view to watch the game.

JW: If that happens, what do you think the chances that they trade Dobbs for some pitching help? Because Dobbs is going to want to play more and get more AB's then you are suggesting he will receive.

There is no way Charlie throws out a lineup that has Dobbs at 3rd & Polanco at 2nd. That would mean either Dobbs starts against a Lefty, or Utley sits against a Righty. Not gonna happen.

During the NLCS we sat in left field in the front row. I liked those seats even better than behind home plate (where I sat for my first game ever at CBP).

Oh, and do you think the Phils could get much if they trade Dobbs? (That's a question, not a taunt.)

JW - I do think that Cholly will try to rest JRoll/Utley a bit more season for several reasons especially a bit earlier in the season. Just don't see Castro being adequate enough defensively or offensively though to do it that much. Cholly will stick with a veteran for a long time so Castro could be awful until June get still get a fair amount of playing time. I just bet Castro is a largely an offensive zero and the defense notably drops off when he is in.

Still bet that Castro joins Nunez, Taguchi and Bruntlett "Have you seen me?" types by Sept. 1 either way.

Kutztown Fan: Most likely not.But I do know Dobbs will want to play. And JW suggested that he won't play that often this season. So with that being said, would it make sense to try to trade him?

The question I asked was more for brainstorming of ideas in response to JW's opinion rather then saying I would want to trade Dobbs.

MG: I agree with your assessment 100%. I think that is a little more logical. Seeing more Dobbs at 3rd instead of Castro is the way things will shake out.

You'd be better off playing Dobbs/Polanco against a righty than a lefty. The loss of Utley against a lefty or a righty is about the same; he doesn't really have much of a platoon split. But Dobbs does have a huge platoon split.

So, obviously, if you're going to substitute Dobbs for Utley, you'd be better off doing it against a righty. Personally, I would try and do this once every 2-3 weeks, but I doubt Charlie will actually follow through on his vow to get Utley more rest.

If he does though, it should be against a righty.

If Polanco plays for Utley, when does he get his own rest days?

GBrettfan: Polly played 153 games last year so mybe he doesn't need much.

Blogmaster, I'm curious, what is it that makes you think we'll see so much Castro and so little Dobbs (and Gload for that matter)?

I don't really have any predictions myself, but I liked the idea of getting Dobbs more playing time at third, or even in the outfield. After this year, we've got one more arb year with Dobbs, and it'd be nice to know if we can use him in the field. Hell - it's wishful thinking, I know - it'd be nice to know if a Dobbs - Francisco platoon would actually be an option in place of Werth.

MG: Nunez doesn't belong in that group with Taguchi and Bruntlett. Even though he sucked, he played a ton on this team; 369 plate appearances in 06 and 287 in 07.

Charlie likes defense, and Castro can defend. He's not Gold Glove, but he's a far sight better than Gnome. I seem him earning some playing time at short. A hot start would help; something Bruntlett didn't have, or Helms, or Taguchi. That's really the key.

Don't see a problem with Polanco getting some rest. Against a righty, no reason Dobbs can't fill in at third.

Guzman and Lowry? Wow the Hot Stove isn't so hot these days!

Amazin Avenue has a pie chart showing how dominant the Mets were from 2006-2009.

Seriously!

I can honestly say that the Mets were one of the top 5 teams in the NL East in that span.

JW - Your right about Nunez. Looked back and didn't realize how much he played after Sept. in a Phils' uniform. Especially in '06.

As for Castro being solid at SS that is what I have read in the scouting reports or his defense numbers:

UZR/150
04: 6.9 (31 G)
05: 19.8 (73 G)
06: 11.1 (77 G)
07: 1.8 (16 G)
08: -16.9 (57 G)
09: -24.2 (28 G)

UZR isn't the end all be all but he pretty clear that his skills have eroded at SS even with the pretty small sample sizes. He also has been rated negatively at 2B/3B albeit with small sample sizes too the last few years.

My bet is that Castro is going to be below average defensively whether he plays at 2B/SS. If he hits .250-.260 and gives them an OPS of .650, he will be adequate.

More likely he hits a really empty .220 and doesn't bring much else to the table offensively because he is a hacker with no pop.

NEPP - No argument there. Definitely a top 5 team in the East.

I will say this in Amaro's defense - there weren't really any great options at Castro's price range in FA.

Ideally, the Phils would have a utility INF who could hit .250 or so, was average/above average defensively at 2B/SS, and had a little speed.

Hell, Cholly might actually start a veteran guy like this once a week to spell his two middle INF who are starting to age a bit.

That was Castro circa '05 or '06. Likely not '10.

MG: Those wildly erratic UZR numbers say more about the value of UZR than they do of Castro's defense.

But from everything I've read, Castro is a former superior gloveman, especially at SS, who for the last couple years was no better than league-average. Whether he will be that good in his age 38 season remains to be seen. FWIW, he doesn't make many errors (only 1 in 28 games at SS last season.)

For me, his signing is the most puzzling move of the off-season.

Felipe Lopez - Do it!!

Clout - Few anecdotal things I saw on Dodgers' blogs is that while Castro hit a bit he wasn't anything to write home about defensively.

My bet is that he is like Bako. A good gloveman who has actual skill level has diminished significantly since then.

Erratic?

Looks more like an age related decline than erratic.

"For me, his signing is the most puzzling move of the off-season."

I agree. Plus the desire to get it done so quickly with a 2 year deal. He's basically a dime a dozen type player.

Eff: Thank you. That pie chart made my day. Hell it probably made my february. That's the funniest most pathetic thing I've ever seen. That dude wears his underwear in the shower.

Yo, new thread (TM)

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