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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

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From end of last thread:

"he'll be pitching deep into all his starts I assume"

What exactly does "deep into games" mean?

I kid, I kid.

1 Day, 23 Hours and 47 Minutes away!

May it come to pass that Roy hits more home runs than he allows.

From last thread:

2009 PECOTA Projections (real stats in parentheses)

Rollins: .290/.357/.452 (.250/.296/.423)
- Obviously missed on this one

Victorino: .291/.352/.429 (.292/.358/.445)
- Pretty much nailed it, Shane hit for a little more power than expected

Utley: .297/.378/.525 (.282/.397/.508)
- Projected little more power, and little less OBP, but nailed the overall OPS

Howard: .268/.371/.541 (.279/.360/.571)
- Overestimated his OBP slightly, underestimated his SLG, but not bad

Werth: .276/.372/.493 (.268/.373/.506)
- Pretty close to nailing it

Ibanez: .284/.350/.472 (.272/.347/.552)
- Obviously whiffed on the power numbers, but close on the others numbers

Feliz: .260/.311/.407 (.266/.308/.386)
- Pretty close, provided less power than expected

Ruiz: .247/.327/.351 (.255/.355/.425)
- Definitely off on Ruiz


Overall, I'd say those projections weren't too bad at all. Obviously they missed on Rollins, Ruiz, and Ibanez's power numbers, but then again I'd imagine we all would have missed those going into last year as well. Additionally, I'm not sure they can account for the fact that Ruiz hits 8th, and thus his OBP numbers are higher than what you'd expect for his skill level.

Otherwise, they did pretty well overall. Maybe we should do fan projections here, have someone keep a list, and then compare to PECOTA at the end of the season?

Would love to avoid PECOTA and UZR on this thread.

Being a DE native, I would love to see Snell come back home and pitch for the Phils. The kid has nasty stuff.

BedBeard, then this means WAR

awh - Re Roy - That's right, if they pitch him every 5th day his first start will be that day game against the nats on the 15th.

With the weather, who knows. Probably will snow in April at some point.

From the last thread:

More and more, I see Dom Brown disappointing us in the long-run. I don't really have anything to base it on but I just don't see the hype surrounding him. He should have DOMINATED in Reading last year and he was merely good. He'll turn 23 this Sept and will be in the minors. He's never had a dominant season in the minors and they keep saying "this year he will break out".

I'm completely prepared to be disappointed by him. I think we should have kept Taylor over him anyway as we have a huge NEED for a RH bat that is MLB ready since Werth is gone after this year.

Sure, there's a decent chance I'm wrong but after 3.5 seasons in the minors, I'd have hope for some more signs. Top prospects tend to destroy the competition, not just muddle by with good to pretty good numbers.

NEPP: He was 21 and dominated the age-appropriate High-A league, and held his own at Double-A Reading. If he doesn't "dominate" Reading this year, then yes, I will be disappointed, but as of right now, I'm prepared to accept the scouts' opinions which go along with a very good, though not great, statistical record.

To Jack: Yeah, I'm hopeful but the jump to AA is by far the toughest to make. Till he makes it, he's still just a bunch of nice potential.

NEPP: And I agree I would have done everything possible to keep Taylor. If the Jays wanted Brown so much, maybe they would have done Brown, Drabek and a lesser prospect (Valle?) and we could've kept Taylor and D'Arnaud? If that was possible, I would've done that.

But the Phils FO has clearly preferred Brown over Taylor (for the record, most scouts and prospect experts do as well). So we've got him--hopefully he holds up his end of the deal and becomes a star. While as you point out it isn't guaranteed he'll become a star, it is certainly very possible.

Jack, that was quicker than I thought.

Here are the results for Baseball Musings lineup analysis (baseballmusings.com):


Using the above lineup and plugging in a .183 OBP and .166 SLG for the pitcher's spot, which was the Phils' 2009 average, the lineup projects to score

5.218 RPG, or 845 runs during 2010.

Moving Polly to 7th and Vic to 2nd, I got the same results as I did using career numbers when I ran the analyzer right after the Polly trade. With Vic at #2 and Polly at 7, the lineup projects to score

5.223 RPG, or 846 runs during 2010.

(When I ran it in November the differential was about 10 runs.)

The best lineup:

Utley
Werth
Polanco
Howard
Victorino
Rollins
Ibanez
Pitcher
Ruiz

projects to score 5.472 RPG, or 886 on the seson.

The worst lineup:

Pitcher
Victorino
Rollins
Ruiz
Polanco
Werth
Ibanez
Utley
Howard

projects to score 4.866 RPG, or 788 on the season.

Interestingly, Baseball Musings WORST projection is HIGHER than the 764 RS that PECOTA projects.

I wonder what is the difference in their algorithms?

There are a bunch of names on this list don't make any sense because they will definitely be on the season opening day roster. Just take the Pirates. The only guy that might have to clear waivers is Moss and even he might be their 5th OF. Rest of the guys will be on the 25-man starting roster Opening Day.

Looking over that list quickly and there isn't necessarily a lefty reliever who immediately jumps out to me. This is still one area I do think the Phils are going to pick up another option because it is a pretty near certainty that Romero won't be on the Opening Day roster and I can't see the Phils be crazy about going with two unproven lefties out of the pen (Escalona/Bastardo).

awh: It's a function of playing time, I believe. Like I said, I have no idea why, but you simply can't use PECOTA for raw counting numbers. Their rate stat projections are pretty good, however (see above).

I would take 845 runs from this team right now, no question. With the pitching staff we've assembled, we should win 95+ games if we get 845 runs.

Jack, I agree. Assuming player health, I think 95+ games is a real possibility.

I've tried to post BP's top 15 Phils prospects, but the post won't go up...not sure why.

They have:
Brown
Aumont
May
Gillies
Valle
Gose
Jiwan James
Colvin
Domingo Santana
Mathieson
JC Ramirez
Cosart
Bastardo
Galvis
Leandro Castro

Brown is the only 5-star prospect, Aumont the only 4-star. They seem pretty high on Colvin, considering his lack of experience/judgment. Other than that, the most interesting to me is that all 3 prospects received in the Lee deal are in the top 11 and 2 are top 4.

MG: I agree with you. Reviewing that list was tough because alot of those guys will be on their teams rosters.

I have liked Snell for a while and I think I even suggested last year or the year before that the Phillies should try to trade for him.

On the lefty front, there aren't a ton of options on that list. And you are 100% right that with Romero more than likely being unavailable until AT LEAST the 2nd week in April, we need a lefty and I am not sure if Bastardo/Escalona can cut it until then. Although I think it is possible that they are the answer until Romero returns.

Snell is a head case, but I think on a solid, stable team, he could excel. I've followed him since he pitched at class A Williamsport. Being on the Pirates would depress and craze anyone.

When he's on, he can be unhittable, and having the Phils run support might give him the confidence he needs.

Bastardo should be fine for the first few weeks...the Phils (particularly Amaro) seem really high on his potential this season, I doubt we'll see them bring in another LOOGY unless he blows up in spring training.

On another note, Jurjjens is having an MRI on his shoulder today due to lingering soreness/pain...that would be a pretty big blow to the Braves' rotation, despite the likely regression he will experience this season.

In the last thread AWH posted that the Phils won't need a 5th starter until April 28th. How does this myth keep reappearing? I even saw Matt Gelb from the Inquirer post something similar in his chat yesterday. The Phillies have 6 consecutive games from April 7-12. Any time you have 5 games in a row you need a 5th starter, no matter who starts the first one.

The only hope for El Domo is that in SP, by osmosis alone, he becomes at least the equal to either Utley, Howard or Ibanez. This same osmosis process will convert Kendrick into a 15 game winner through his bud Roy.

****Any time you have 5 games in a row you need a 5th starter, no matter who starts the first one.****

We can safely assume at least one of those games will be either snowed out or rained out.

Problem solved.

****This same osmosis process will convert Kendrick into a 15 game winner through his bud Roy.****

That's almost as good as the articles on KK back in 2008 where it talked about KK asking Brandon Webb for pointers on his sinker when the Phillies were in AZ for a roadtrip.

KK: Brandon, what should I do to work on my sinker?

Webb: Don't suck so much?

Jack, just to check the accuracy of the Baseball Musings analyzer, I went back and check how well the actual 2009 results you posted above would [have] project[ed] out.

Using the actual 2009 OBP and SLG you posted, the BM analyzer "projects" that that lineup 'would' have scored 808 runs, with Werth batting 5th, and 804 runs with Ibanez in the 5 hole.

The 2009 Phils scored 820 runs.

At worst, the projected results differ from the actual results by 2%.

If the same accuracy occurs in 2010, then the Phils should score somewhere between 828 and 863 runs (845 +/- 2%).

That's why it MUST be by Osmosis with KK.

NEPP - Actually KK is one of the guys I am most interested to see this spring training. Everybody keeps harping that he needs to throw his changeup to lefties but I am just as interested (if not more interested) to see his slider a bit this spring. If he is going to get good enough results in spring training, he is going to need pretty good control and mix in that slider/changeup combo especially against LHB.

One of the #10 things I am interested in seeing - KK's slider (put it at #4).

awh - One thing that should out to me yesterday with the whole Polanco vs. Vic thing was that it will likely a wash because the Phils will have a dropoff in production at the #2 spot but have a big lift in the #7 spot.

Only way this offense likely scores notably more runs is if JRoll rebounds to his '06/'07 levels and I highly doubt that happens. Otherwise it should be a unit good enough to score around 830 runs or so. Wild card as always is injuries although the Phils do have Francisco who can fill in and a slightly better bench this year.

Meyer: i like your KK theories, i'm on board.

Count me on board for KK as well. I think he will beat out Moyer for the 5th spot when it is all said and done.

I am most excited about seeing his fastball, slider, (sick) changeup and 2 other mystery pitches that he is supposed to have this season. Source: His fiancee.

I've been wondering if lefties Joe Savery (purest of hitters) and Domonic Brown (drafted as a pitcher) should find out in SP who can do what best in SP.

KK's fiancee is a "Survivor" survivor. Between Roy and Steph that should be enough osmosion.

****Count me on board for KK as well. I think he will beat out Moyer for the 5th spot when it is all said and done.****

Probably a good chance of that since I seriously doubt Moyer will be healthy enough to start the season off the DL. Being that his only other competition is Drew Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong, its not really that hard to see happening.

I still expect Contreras to end up as a starter at some point.

Meyer, what is "SP"?

Hamels' wife was from Surivor as well.

So now Dom Brown is a bust and should consider a move to pitching.

Real games, or even scrimmage games, can't get here soon enough.

Well this is getting cozy. Soon Cole, Kyle and Roy WILL be having BBQ's together.

BedBeard, I know.

NEPP is fast becoming like bap..."MR. NEPPative". :)

For those in the area or access to the internet:

On 610 now Scott Franzke is guest hosting with Billy King and Anthony Gargano until 3 pm.

They are talking about the Braves now and Franzke isn't scared of the Braves starters. Says Jurrjens is a question mark with his MRI ad shoulder, Lowe isn't the same guy as old and referenced his bad 2nd half, finally says there is a lot of pressure on Hanson.

Also, says the Mets are always suspect.

****Amaro knows he’s going to have to filter young players onto his team’s roster at some point, but he wants to keep Ryan Howard around “forever.” The first baseman is under team control through 2011, so the Phillies have more time to determine their course of action with Howard than they have for Jayson Werth, who hits free agency after this coming season.****

IE: We have to choose between Howard and Werth and we want Howard.


BB: So now Dom Brown is a bust and should consider a move to pitching.

awh: NEPP is fast becoming like bap..."MR. NEPPative". :)

Yeah, its called being realistic. He is not a sure thing and anyone penciling him into RF for 2011 is making a huge assumption. The guy has barely 100 ABs at the AA level and was only good, not great. Go back and look at a top prospect's MiLB stats...they tend to crush the competition, not merely do good.

This is a huge year for him. He should do well but its not a guarantee. If he falters in a full year at Reading, Rube will end up looking a bit foolish. Yes, Dom Brown has great upside but its far from a guarantee that he realizes it. I apologize for not being a pure fanboy and assuming everything will go perfectly for the team.

NEPP: Relax, I was mostly referring to Meyer's comment about Savery/Brown seeing what position they are really good at. That, coupled with your cautiousness (reasonable) were a little much as a 1-2 punch this AM.

When you're a 5 star prospect, every year is a big year. I'll still stick to the scouts and their impressions.

"IE: We have to choose between Howard and Werth and we want Howard."

NEPP, exactly right. And the only piece of edvidence you need to look at is again the 2011 Payroll. We are at $132 million now, have $4 million in renewals, $5-7 million in arb. players. That brings us to $141-143 million already to for the 2011 offseason.

Need to replace Contreras as well.

Werth is as good as gone.

On Savery, I wonder at what point this year that they will consider converting him to a 1B?

He's never come back from his arm injuries in college. If he comes out slow again, do they transition him to a position player (and drop him down to maybe Clearwater to work on that?)

He's no more than a longshot to ever make it as a pitcher at this point...maybe hitting will work (not that he's much more of a sure thing as a hitter either).

Your 2011 OF/Bench will be: Francisco in RF and Mayberry as 4th OFer off bench

In 2012 it will be: Brown,Vic,Francisco with Mayberry/Gillies/Gose as 4th OFer

****Your 2011 OF/Bench will be: Francisco in RF and Mayberry as 4th OFer off bench****

Pretty much this.

Unless a low-cost veteran option is signed as insurance. They clearly are stating they cannot possibly afford Werth nor can they raise payroll any further than it already is.

SP is Spring Party in Florida. I need a vacation.

Nepp, your statement is not always true. Go look at a young Chase Utley's stats as a 22 year old in A+ ball, and then his 23 year old stats in AAA ball. In neither year did he destroy the minors...but if you look his year 24 stats you'll see a guy that destroyed the minors.

I was also a bigger Taylor fan, but he had questions too. I understand tempering excitement, but I think it is fair to say Brown has a legitimate shot at being on the Phils and starting in 2011.

There are about 8 million reasons and a few options that make the 5th starter 'comptetion' a moot point.

NEPP: Again, completely correct.

To go back a few threads, all those posters hoping and/or expecting them to raise the payroll another $15-17 million for the 4th year in a row are really kidding themselves.

with a deep playoff run again they will go from $143 million (this year) to around $146-148 million MAX. That would mean in the past 3-4 years they increased the payroll $45-50 million. That is pretty darn impressive and worthy of praise.

NEPP: You mean you don't think a 23-year old who had a 1.25 SO/BB ratio is a legit starting pitcher prospect?

Me neither. But Clout begs to differ.

Savery is 24. He needs to show some serious improvement in both Ks and BBs this season to be considered a future starter. It's true that a guy like Happ was a late bloomer out of college as well, but Happ had shown significantly better peripheral numbers throughout his minor-league career.

****Nepp, your statement is not always true. Go look at a young Chase Utley's stats as a 22 year old in A+ ball, and then his 23 year old stats in AAA ball. In neither year did he destroy the minors...but if you look his year 24 stats you'll see a guy that destroyed the minors****

I completely agree. Utley was and is an exception to the rule as he was a late bloomer who was penciled in as a utility IF all the way till his 2nd year in the Majors.

There are always exceptions to the rule. I really really hope Dom Brown is the next Daryl Strawberry (minus the whole coke addiction). I just don't ASSUME it will happen is all.

****There are about 8 million reasons and a few options that make the 5th starter 'comptetion' a moot point.****

The 5th starter competition is more between Jamie Moyer's heart and his 47 year old body than between Moyer and KK.

NEPP, I'm just busting chops.

However, I think you need to give the kid a chance. He did really well in the FSL (better than highly touted Ike Davis in the Mets' system).

I agree that Taylor might wind up being the better player, but even he started out slowly at every level.

Let's see what Brown does this year. as you said, he barely had 100 AB at the AA level. Is that enough to pass judgement?

Even Albert Pujols has had a .279 BA over 100 AB at the major league level. :)

Let me ask you, what level of performance by Brown is it going to take to impress you this season (BA, OBP, SLG)?

Who would win a greased lightning foot race between Gose, Gillies and Galvis? About the Savery/Brown contest, I was really wondering if Brown could pitch better then Savery. We all know Savery can hit.

****However, I think you need to give the kid a chance. He did really well in the FSL (better than highly touted Ike Davis in the Mets' system).****

I agree. Davis is only highly touted because he's in the Mets system. THere are some good concerns based on his really high K rate.

I give him a great chance, I just dont think he's a guarantee to be ready by 2011.

****Let's see what Brown does this year. as you said, he barely had 100 AB at the AA level. Is that enough to pass judgement?****

Definitely not, that's why I am not sold either way on him.

****Who would win a greased lightning foot race between Gose, Gillies and Galvis?****

Galvis isn't considered a speedster by any means. One of the concerns on him is his lack of a running game.

I was caught up with G names. No time to investigate. The puppy has diarrhea and the 5 year old is hungry.

NEPP: Taylor was a far more polished prospect than Brown. I would expect Brown to develop more slowly. No question Double A is the key test for most prospects.

Jack: You're confusing our debate over KK with our debate over Savery.

On KK, you (and numerous others here) say he can't possibly have a major league career because of his low K rate. I've cited several examples of pitchers who did quite well with low K rates.

On Savery, my support for him last season was based on the fact that he had 4 good pitches and projected a decent rotation back-ender. Obviously, if he ceases to have 4 good pitches he'd no longer be a prospect. He suffered a drop in velocity last year that is worth monitoring (injury?), but, unlike you, I'm not ready to say he'll never have a career.

NEPP: "Utley was and is an exception to the rule as he was a late bloomer who was penciled in as a utility IF all the way till his 2nd year in the Majors."

Wow, I totally missed that. He was a 1st round pick and rated among the top Phils prospects every year since he signed. The only question on him was his glove. I never saw a single report that projected him as a utility guy.

Wow Galvis is quick like cat but average on the base path. Manny Trillo.

JW: Thanks for reminding us of the Dave Dellucci/Robinson Tejeda trade. Tejeda is still wild as hell, but he's posted ERA+ of 110 and 125 the past 2 seasons and is just 27. Tons of walks, tons of strikeouts, very few hits.

Clout is correct. Utley may have been shuffled between 3B and 2B, and platooned when he first came up, but he was always considered good enough with the stick to be a regular wherever he ended up. Obviously no one saw this level of play coming, but it's hard to project any prospect to be a legit MVP candidate every year.

Also, NEPP is confusing a couple things when he says guys have to dominate the minors. It's true that dominating the minors is sufficient to get you considered a top prospect, but it is by no means necessary to being a star-level MLB player. None of our best players (Utley, Howard, Rollins, Werth, Victorino) dominated the minors at a young age the way NEPP is describing. In fact, of our best players, only Hamels really followed that path to stardom.

Meyer: Interesting comp. Trillo didn't hit much in the minors either, through age 19 and it took him 3 times to pass the AA test. But it all clicked at age 21.

Galvis is 19. Love to see the same thing happen with him.

If a 5 tool player has 2 hitting tools, would a 5 tool player who can pitch in a pinch have 6 tools, two for throwing? How many tools does Ross Gload have if he can pitch a no hit, no run ninth against TB?

That Rosenthal piece was good reading - Thanks, awh.

****I never saw a single report that projected him as a utility guy.****

I'll pull the Baseball Prospectus scouting reports that say it. I believe it was their 04 or 05 handbook that still had him pegged as such due to his questionable (at the time) defense.

****Also, NEPP is confusing a couple things when he says guys have to dominate the minors.****

I never said "HAVE"...I said they "TEND" to dominate.

Good feeling words by Rosenthal. 7 straight 85+ win seasons. If ever a Phillies team could win 100 it will be this year. Of course I would like to see Gillick top his record.

My guess is 97 wins in 2010.

A full year of Halladay along with swapping out Feliz for Polly should give us that much improvement. Considering that with an average Lidge last year we would have won 100+ games, its a fair estimate.

NEPP: Wow, BP projected him as utility? Never saw that. Says something about their scouting skills. Their list above is pretty strange too, quite different than what I've seen so far (I don't think BA list is out yet, but the BP list is lowest I've seen Ramirez projected and the highest I've seen Colvin.)

I am also thinking that the Infielders will help Lidge with eliminating base runners by working on a half dozen or so new versions of the hidden ball trick.

RodeoJones - That is if Moyer is able to pitch enough in spring training to build up his arm strength. My bet is that isn't on the Opening Day roster and joins Lidge in extended spring training. Phils don't need a 5th starter for the first 3 weeks of the season anyways with the schedule.

Another thing I am interested in seeing with Lidge this spring (whenever he actually does manage to take the mound).

Lidge's pickoff attempt to 1st (#7 on my list of thing this spring training). It was comically sad how last year runners were pretty much going at will against Lidge because of his inability/refusal to develop a competent pickoff throw. Coupled with his delivery and propensity to throw a ton of sliders in the dirt, Lidge is one of the easiest relieves to run on in the NL.

Very interesting comments per Amaro regarding Cliff Lee and getting type A arbitration draft pick compensation in that Rosenthal linked by awh. I felt at the time that Amaro had bungled some of the decisions regarding offering arbitration, particulary with guys like Moyer and Park. But his thought process on possibly getting only draft picks for Lee seems pretty reasonable.

I've said it before, but I think JC Ramirez is the key to the Lee deal. Opinions on the guy clearly vary. There's a chance he'll end up being the best of the three players we got back from Seattle, and that won't necessarily be a bad thing.

Rosenthal with his typical weak article that recycles content that has been out there for weeks.

I still can't believe that the basis of his article is that the "Phils are built for the long-term" yet he goes on almost refute that in the middle of the article talking about many key guys on the roster are not signed after 2011. Hell, this team is built to win now. After 2011, Amaro's crystal ball gets alot cloudier especially given the lack of nearly any positional prospects in the organization except in the OF.

As for Amaro's statement that "the Phils are built for the long-term." BFD. He made that as a PR statement to buttress public opinion regarding the Lee trade. It is a typical throwaway comment you see from any CEO who has to both balance meeting quarterly earnings numbers & annual numbers vs. investors who may hold the stock as a long-term growth/dividend play. Of course Amaro is going to stay this team is also focused on winning in the long-term. He didn't really provide any specifics on exactly how this will be accomplished.

clout, I'm surprised to see Mathieson and Bastardo are so low on the list.

MG: I think having Doc signed through 2013 certainly helps. I'm not sure how much long-term stability you're seeking. In baseball, I don't think it's really possible to look more than 4 or 5 years down the road because prospects are so volatile.

Each off-season, Amaro will have an opportunity to reshape the team for a few years down the road. That's he's essentially built a team for the next 2 to 3 years is a good start.

Amaro somehow knew Lee would be on a recoup, rehab & mend year. Gillick will have him over to the place in a double secret meeting where he will arrange a deal for Lee to come back before the deadline to mop up again.

CJ: Totally agree with you.

awh: So was I. Mathieson barely makes the Top 10.

.

Ian Anderson would be a better fit than Ian Snell. Lol.

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