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Thursday, February 18, 2010

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I'll do it.
When can I start and how much will I get paid?

After we get that handled, just sit back and enjoy the ride...bigmyc style.

Steven A Smith's got nothin' on me.

I'll do any graphic and photoshop work for ya.

I hope this is the lead-up to JW's unveiling of a third personality... one even more turbulent than Clout!

In all seriousness, this is an interesting BLer development. While I would be lying if I said I was concerned about the fate of the site, I also have faith that JW will choose the right party. Good luck to all applicants (except one).

I'm surprised there hasn't been any comment on this:

"Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee told Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse that success for left-hander Cole Hamels won't come back until his demeanor changes."

For a guy whose peripherals are nearly identical (and in some cases better) to the year before, but whose BABIP soared, Hamels has sure been overanalyzed and explained.

Prediction: If Hamels BABIP plunges next season, leading to more wins and a better ERA, even as his peripherals (including FIP) decay showing he pitched worse than 2009, he'll be hailed as having a "better attitude" which led to "a far better year than 2009."

from the end of last thread:

Jack: Ok, thanks for that article.

Ehh, I guess I am fine with that. Besides according to DiTHL splits, they tend to appear more often during the months of July-November.

Regarding the BLer post game wrap-up applicants.

Let's just congratulate AWH, clout, NEPP, Jack, BAP(After losses) and Sophist now.

Moving on to discuss the latest in the "War of Words 2010" between the Mets and Phillies. You know it is only a matter of time before Reyes and BB-Rod weigh in on the subject.

Clout: It's funny. I was thinking the other day that, by the numbers, Hamels didn't really do anything differently last year--the process was correct (his underlying numbers), the results (wins, runs) just didn't work out--to put it an analytic terms.

But the overreaction to the results being bad might end up changing the process for the worse (adding new ineffective pitches, different approaches, etc.), which might lead to similar bad results, or even worse results, and these ones will actually be legitimate. Essentially, the idea that Hamels had a bad year last year could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Of course, I happen to be in the minority who thinks that Hamels needs to add new pitches to his repertoire. He threw his curveball slightly less in 2009 than he did in 2008, but the same amount as he did in 2007. He just needs to throw it in the right spots, and command his fastball and changeup better. I'm pretty confident he will.

That should say, "who DOESN'T think that Hamels needs to add new pitches to his repertoire.

He should pick Bay Area Phan:

Projected headline for Opening Day:

"Phils win 10-0 Behind Strong Halladay Effort: On Pace for 1-161 Season"


I will limit myself to the comments...not enough graphic design ability or time to write recaps. I;m sure whoever applies and is picked will do fine.

Jack & clout: A question for you both cocnerning Hamels.

We all realize that his numbers were pretty even as you both just said. But you do realize that they look at numbers AND watch video on every pitch he threw in the 2009 season?

This is where numbers don't tell the whole story. Certain things in Hamels' delievery or the way he set up to pitch certain pitches could have tipped off batters or done various things unrelated to stats that caused him to have different results in 2009.

Just like with Lidge as I said after re-watching his appearances(and I am sure the Phillies did as well), it was obvious he was hurt for the reasons JW listed in the previous thread.

I said weeks ago that his mechanics, leg kick and delivery were all off compared to 2008 and was due to his injured knee and elbow.

Lidge should have never said he was "alright and felt fine", he lied and it ended up costing him any chance he had of having a good year by trying to suck it up.

Tommy: True, but if he was doing something like tipping pitches, you would think it would appear in the stats, right? Like, if a hitter knew a changeup was coming, he'd be more likely to hit it for a line drive, or a home run.

Except Hamels gave up less line drives last year, and the same amount of home runs (per 9 innings). He struck out the same number of batters, and walked the same.

The only difference is that he had serious bad luck on balls in play (this is borne out by watching the games; there were countless games where he gave up just unlucky bloop hits), and he gave up too many big innings.

It's certainly possible he was doing something which made him susceptible to a big inning, but considering he hadn't had any problems with that before in his career, the more likely scenario is he was just unlucky.

Jack: Exactly right. FIP also bears this out. His FIP in 2008 was identical to his FIP in 2009.

Jack: Exactly, you hit the nail on the head.

So by watching the games over and seeing he was "unlucky", what makes you or clout think he will feel the need to change something?

Dubbs and Cole more than likely realized he was unlikely after watching film, which turned into big innings and are going into the 2010 season ready for Cole to pitch more or less, exactly the same.

I don't view BABIP as strictly a "luck" stat. Happ has an outstanding BABIP. It will probably come down some, but I'd guess he'll usually be above average in this "stat". IMO, his deceptive delivery keeps hitters from making solid contact as often even when they do get the ball in play. Mixed in with his really unhittable stuff, Hamels seemed to throw more "hittable" pitches last year, pitches that guys were just crushing. When hitters made contact, they were driving the ball.

Maybe Dubee means Cole should drop that laid back, water-off-a-ducks-ass attitude, turn around and rip out the defense for letting those balls drop in and sneak by.

SteveW: "When hitters made contact, they were driving the ball."

Odd that something like that wouldn't show up in the stats.

It did seem like hitters were fouling off more of Cole's pitches last year...I don't know (not looking it up) if that's supported by his stats or not.

Read the context of Dubee's comment. He was saying Hamels needs to be less of a perfectionist, the opposite of the general consensus here.

"I will limit myself to the comments...not enough graphic design ability or time to write recaps. I;m sure whoever applies and is picked will do fine."

Nepp: You spend more time on here than the next 5 people combined. You don't have the time? Who you kidding?:)

I know the history of the game,I have the way to see every game and watch all other games on MLB.Com
I know just about every teams lineups from like 1975 to today
I'm unemployed cook and have plenty of time,its my favorite sport and I even still fool around with Strat-o-Matic
This is the perfect way for me to express my passion for the game.I have been to Hall of Fame like 10 times and a member of the
fans pass to the Hall,so I can go up every year to see induction weekend.
I would truly have fun and know stats,can express my professional and personel opion about the Phillies and other teams.
I would truly love to be conisdered for this job

Thank You

I can even be a great resercher and help out this site on the history of the game

To me sometimes Hamels looks scared of not being a perfectionist.When he starts to get hit alittle bit,I feel he gets a look on his face of almost fear.I would love to see him get tougher on the mound and have what Brett Myers had,the non-fear of being mean.Throwing more inside,not looking at other players to make them look bad.I hope he can learn from seeing Lee pitching last year of having no fear and pay more attention to Moyer and Holiday this year.He still has to study the art of pitching,very talented,but must still become a pitcher as they say

Dave

Haha. Can I do your laundry for free too?

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