Tuesday: Money now the obstacle for arb eligibles

Several arbitration-eligible Phillies, including Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, Joe Blanton and Chad Durbin, are due raises. The Phillies are hoping to avoid going to the table. Players can file today.

Last year, the Phillies deftly sidestepped arbitration with eight eligible Phillies. Team president Dave Montgomery approved the spending, resulting in lucrative, longer-term deals for Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson and Greg Dobbs, designed to keep the championship nucleus together. This time around, the Phillies may be faced with a different set of hurdles. Where as the looming arbitration cases became last year's primary objective - a way to placate a large volume of players including a couple megastars in Howard and Hamels - this year, establishing a long-term top-of-the-rotation solution and third base really took precedent. And as the offseason has unfolded, we've uncovered more specifics on that self-imposed salary cap, believed to be around $140 million.

It's hard to see the Phillies taking the same cavalier approach, rewarding multi-year deals as a gesture of good faith. But it's possible. Guys like Victorino and Ruiz are vital components and they may decide to reward their service by guaranteeing a spot on the club beyond 2010. Of the two, Ruiz, who earned a scant $475,000 last season and is arbitration eligible for the first time, might be the better candidate for a longer extension due to the sheer lack of capable catchers down in the minors (Ruiz's agent certainly has the leverage to negotiate for a more comfortable living, and I wonder what Ruiz would get out on the open market). As for Victorino, who took home $3.5 million a year ago, eventually, youth needs to be served, and centerfield is one area the Phillies have been stockpiling. Meanwhile, Blanton, who earned $5.5 million, may have been approached about an extension as a way to stay within the bounds of the Pat Gillick Rule (no more than three years for free agent pitching). But just like Cliff Lee, Blanton has never experienced a major payout, which he's more likely to receive testing free agency.

Comments

[Greg V]

Get Chooch some green! He's been to two Fall Classics in a row!

[krukker]

From last thread:

joedad: I agree with you on Beltre. I was only lukewarm on the idea of signing him. What made him so attractive to BL posters is that even his 2005-2008 norm is still significantly better than Pedro Feliz, but it's also nowhere near those 2004 fluke numbers. He, like Feliz, is outstanding on defense.

Also on Beltre, I'm not so sure that him signing a 1-yr $9 or 10M deal + player option with Boston makes the Polanco signing any worse. I read on MLBTR that Beltre left longer offers on the table in order to sign with Boston, therefore he may not have been open to signing a deal like that with us anyway.

Even if he signed that same deal with the Phils, that would lead to 2 scenarios: 1) he has an outstanding 2010 and opts out, leaving us with a hole at 3B again next offseason or 2) he repeats 2009 offensively and we're stuck with another black hole at 3B for 2011.

And as mvptommy pointed out, the salary difference between Polanco and Beltre may not be much, but it could mean 2 more bullpen arms.

The Polanco signing, while it may end up being horrible, is a good attempt at stabilizing the position for 3 years. We have nothing in the pipeline right now to take over 3B from the minors. If Beltre signed that same deal with the Phils, that is not a move to stabilize the position.

[Meyer]

Senor Octubre in for a big raise.

[J. Weitzel]

More contact, fewer strikeouts, manageable contract and a comparable defender to Feliz. In that order, that's why Polanco is in red pinstripes.

[mvptommyd]

"Blanton has never experienced a major payout, which he's more likely to receive testing free agency. "

As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend!". Blanton's buddy and other member of the "Red Neck Wrecking Crew" Brett Myers is seeing now that FA isn't all that it is cracked up to be.

Maybe Blanton accepting a 3 yr/22-24 mil deal is in his best interest?

[NEPP]

I wouldn't be stunned if Vic files in the $7-8 million range...and "settles" for around $6M.

[mvptommyd]

NEPP: That is what I am expecting as well.

These arb. cases/reaching deals are going to take up $18-21 million.

Which will in turn take out payroll to $136-139 million.

Sign/Re-sign 2 bullpen guys and we are almost at $140 on the button.

[MPN]

JW: I also have to wonder if there is thought that Polanco may shift to 2B in year 3 of the deal and Utley to 1B if they can't hold onto Howard?

[MG]

Polanco will be fine next year if he hits right around/above .300 and plays good/adequate defense.

It is also possible too that last 2 years indicated Polanco is a player in decline too. The Phils might be stuck with a guy with limited pop, .270ish average, mediocre defense, and average speed.

My bet is the Phils get closer to the former and not the later. If so, Polanco won't be an issue in '10.

[NEPP]

Apparently Jason Bay got a full no-trade clause out of the Mets...I wonder if that will come back to bite them.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Third base remains a position the Phillies need an answer for down the road due to teh dearth of prospects in the minors. I look at the Polanco deal as a 2 year solution with the hope that he's a highly paid, effective utility guy in year 3 of the deal.

[NEPP]

What would Vic do if he were offered a 2 year, $14-16 million deal (possibly backloaded like Werth's).

Financially that would probably make sense and it wouldn't block any of our CF prospects that are still a good 2 years away at best.

[Chris in VT]

A 2 year deal for Vic wouldn't buy out any FA years, just his last year of arbitration next year, correct? If that were the case, I think Vic would probably accept because he'd still be going into FA as early as possible.

Is that something the Phils would be interested in? I'm not so sure...

[NEPP]

Exactly...it would give Rube some cost certainty (as well as perhaps free up some money this year) and it would give Vic a guarantee against injuries.

Paying Vic something like $5 million instead of $7-8 million could help Rube out come the trade deadline.

[thephaithful]

tommy: Myers signed a deal early on that took him through a year past arbitration where he made over $28M in his last 4 years, including $12M the past year where he hardly contributed. He hit the market coming off seasons of being injury plagued and shuffled between both the bullpen and rotation.

Blanton has done no such thing and is no such situation. He has went year-to-year under team control his whole career and has pitched +190IP every year as a starter with no injuries to speak of.

His past contract and future FA status do/would not mirror Brett Myers at all.

[mvptommyd]

NEPP: True. But then next year with that remaining $9-11 million will just strangle hold them even more for next year. I would rather just split the cost equally between the 2 years.

[Chris in VT]

If it's a 2 year deal for 14 mil, and only 5 was paid out this year, his salary for next year would be 9 mil. Is that really a number the Phils would want to lock in on? If they do something like that, there is 0 chance at all that they'd be able to work anything out with Werth, as opposed to the very slim chance they have now.

I know it's a pipe-dream, but I really think the Phils HAVE to do everything possible to keep Werth for the next few years, and should be planning their budget for next year accordingly. Without him that lineup gets completely out of whack.

[mvptommyd]

the phaithful: I am not saying they mirror each other. I only said that for some FA isn't the answer. Blanton and Myers both have a career 4+ ERA. With the crop of 2011 FA starters, Blanton isn't looking at making a huge splash.

Also, they are similiar in the fact that Blanton has a career ERA+ of 102 compared to Myers of 99.

[NEPP]

There is Zero chance we extend Werth...barring him taking well below market value or a trade of another expensive piece leaving another hole in the lineup.

[CJ]

2 years, $5.25M for Baez

[mvptommyd]

Chris in VT: You mirrored my post, with one exception. I think no matter what Werth is gone after this season. Phillies basically have no room to sign him for the $15-17 per year that he will want.

But according to clout and others, offense is more important than pitching for the Phillies. So maybe signing Werth and having a rotation of Halladay/Hamels/Happ/Kendrick/Carpenter or Savery is the answer.

If it were up to me I would let Werth walk, put Francisco in the OF and sign a pitcher or two from the decent crop in 2011.

[NEPP]

***2 years, $5.25M for Baez***

Damn, it pays to be a mediocre reliever with closing experience. Good thing for us he's not LH or he'd have probably gotten twice that.

[thephaithful]

The only way the Phils should offer Vic more than a yearly arb raise is if they can buy out a free agent year(2012) from him at a team friendly price in exchange for a few mil in the next two years.

NEPP: Wouldnt a vic trade be more realistic in 2011 when our prospects are closer and he is eligible for FA? I would rather try to keep it in line like a $6mil 2010, $8mil 2011 deal than turn it into a $5mil-$9-10mil structure.

If he is a trading option in 2010, you gotta think that his total money owed (which would include the backload) is just as relevant to a team than his current year salary.

[JBird]

Blanton's been much, much, much more consistent than Myers. He's a safer bet for a team looking at a 3 year deal. Plus he's not coming off an injury that wiped out a good chunk of a season. I think every GM in baseball would choose Blanton over Myers right now, it's not even close.

[NEPP]

****NEPP: Wouldnt a vic trade be more realistic in 2011 when our prospects are closer and he is eligible for FA? I would rather try to keep it in line like a $6mil 2010, $8mil 2011 deal than turn it into a $5mil-$9-10mil structure.****

Yeah, probably. The only worry with that is whether or not Gillies or Gose would be ready to play CF in 2012. Odds are against it...odds are against either ever really being an MLB player to be honest...prospects are never a guarantee.

[mvptommyd]

And with that, goodbye to Chan Ho.

Your 2010 Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

Lidge
Madson
Romero
Eyre??
Baez
Durbin
Moyer/Kendrick
Escalona/Mathieson/Bastardo

[NEPP]

We knew Park was gone as soon as we signed Baez. Well, honestly, we knew he was gone as soon as he said he still wanted a chance to start. Now we just have to hope he doesn't go to a rival like the Mets.

If Lidge returns to form (or even close to it), that's a very solid bullpen. If he doesn't, Park wouldn't have helped us anyway. Spending big money on the bullpen is rarely a good investment.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Blanton doesn't have Myers' baggage, either.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Blanton doesn't have Myers' baggage, either.

[NEPP]

How's Blanton's right hook?

[J. Weitzel]

MPN: That's a good point.

[NEPP]

I am a bit surprised that Myers hasn't been signed by Houston to be their Closer. I guess he burned his bridges with Ed Wade. Eddy usually signs any and all available former Phillies.

[NEPP]

Temporarily shifting Utley to 1B for one year (in MPN's scenario where Howard walks) wouldn't be the worst idea on earth. He could always go back to 2B the following season as there are usually tons of available 1B on the market...or maybe one of our long-shot 1B prospects will have panned out by then.

I expect Utley to shift to 1B at some point anyway as he plays into his mid-to-late 30s.

[DPatrone]

From the last thread:

Bed Beard~

I meant to say the RAJ may not make the final decisions on what happens. Some decisions, I believe, on what he can and cannot do come from above him. Maybe he doesn't have as much of a free reign as thought by some.

[mvptommyd]

"Spending big money on the bullpen is rarely a good investment."

I 100% agree. Also, I have been trying to tell that most of the posters here who are now complaining about that exact point.

On Lidge, honestly could he be any worse? Also, with Romero back that will surely be an improvement.

Overall Rube did a good job this offseason. Depending how he handles the Arb. eligibles, he can make it a great offseason.

[NEPP]

****On Lidge, honestly could he be any worse? Also, with Romero back that will surely be an improvement.****

Other than intentionally throwing games, I don't see how.

Rube nailed the arb-eligible cases last year. I hope and expect the same success this year as his reputed great strength is in negotiating.

[Chris in VT]

I understand there's almost no chance to keep Werth, but that lineup is a mess without him. There is zero RH power and it would be extremely vulnerable to any good LHP.

I get that his price range is probably well outside of what the Phils would be willing to pay, but the balance he brings to the lineup is vital.

[NEPP]

Well, that's probably why we should have kept Michael Taylor and substituted out one of our 50 other OF prospects instead.

[Chris in VT]

Very true...but I still don't see how you can put that lineup together without Werth.

That's why I would be extemely wary about giving out deals to Vic/Blanton/etc. that include large money for next year. But I'm not running the front office, so that's up to ownership/RAJ.

I would most definitely sacrifice a Blanton + Vic next year (for instance) if it meant they could re-sign Werth.

[CJ]

yo, new thread

[awh]

yo, novus ligamen!