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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Comments

Concerning the long term deals, I think all 3 of them sign one. But my method of thinking concerning Werth is this:

What if we portion out of the deals so that most the money gets paid in years 1 & 3. Year 2 of the deals are very light money wise. That was you are paying extra this year to bump the payroll up a bit, but next year your not paying nearly the amounts you could be. Therefore that leaves you the room to pay Werth. Then with Werth we give him something like a 5 yr/75-80 mil deal with Werth. But in year 2 of his deal pay him virtually nothing to compensate for the Year 3's of the other guys who you are paying alot in.

Basically, creative accounting can keep everyone in tack AND within their budget.

The fascinating part of...{yawns}...um, the, um, fascinating part of, um, arbit...{yawns}...uh, arbitration...excuse me, {yawns}...um...{hits snooze button and thinks: "Wake me when it's pitchers and cathcers.")}

"With payroll commitments already reaching a reported $120 million, the Phillies may be more inclined to lowball the unsigned trio"

I don't think so JW. I think the Phillies and Amaro learned form Gillick's mistake and will not do that again. The edvidence to support this theory is last year. As mentioned Rube did a great job to lock up EVERYONE before they reached the table.

The payroll is sitting around $120 mill before arb. cases and renewals. The Phillies have portioned out about $18 million for this process. They signed Durbin, therefore have about $16 million left for this process. The reason I know they have an alotted amount for the arb. player sis because look at who they are signing. Cheap, MiL fillers.

As I have said the trick is to sign all 3 to deals with the deals constructed in a way that next year they are on the soft side (money wise) to give you room/leverage to re-sign Werth to a Bay-like deal.

It can happen...

Andy: It is fascinating because this is the time when money is spent that has implications on many moves down the line in order to keep within the budget for years to come.

"...to keep within the budget for years to come..."

Hmmmm...there is more than one way to keep within a budget.

I'm far more interested in who will man the 7th 8th and 9th innings in April.

Feliz Hernandez just signed a 5 yr/$80 million deal with the Mariners.

Well he just set the market for Cliff Lee and others....

"I'm far more interested in who will man the 7th 8th and 9th innings in April."

Yea, you are saying that NOW. Come the end of next year I am sure you will be the first one yelling at Rube when Werth leaves because they can't afford to re-sign him.

Last time I checked the Phillies have been a .500 or under team in April. April is just an extension of ST for the Phillies.

I am much much more interested in trying to make creative deals to keep Werth here past the 2010 season.

Werth-Schmerth...we got Michael Tay...errr...

I'm not sure the Phils are interested in making deals to keep Werth here. If they ARE interested in keeping him beyond 2010, they'll make a deal. And what they do in one years deals with Joe, Vic and Chooch will have minimal impact on that desire. If they want him, they'll find a way to build a budget for it.

Hey MVP,
I don't think you can compare the Felix deal with a potential free agent because Felix still had some years of arbirtration left. So this contract bought out his arb years and a couple of his free agent years. So just like Grienke and Johnson's contracts, this one didn't set the market for a true free agent.

Andy: We aren't talking about 1 yr. deals with Bam-Bam, Vic and Ruiz. We are talking about 3 yr. deals. Similiar to what they did with Hamels and Howard. And you said the following:

"If they ARE interested in keeping him beyond 2010, they'll make a deal"

This is a "no kidding" kinda post. They will sign him if 1.) they are interested in signing him long-term and 2.)there budget allows.

In order for the budget to allow for it. They need to designate money for him. This is why signing the arb. players THIS season to creative deals is important, so we can afford him for next year.

Maxmax: Right. It made it worse for the teams trying to sign him. That is my point. Felix just set the "floor" for the FA signings. Lee will be looking for Halladay type money now.

tommy - If they fail to sign Werth I will not be angry with Junior. That's more on upper management and Werth himself.

If we have Sergio Escalona protecting a 9-8 lead in a Kendrick start of a game against the Nationals, (which would have, incidentally, been a 9 - 4 lead if there was a league average starter pitching) and he fails to protect that lead in a game we should have easily won? THAT's when I'll be mad at Ruben.

And really, even though I was mainly joking around about the snooze alarm thing, what makes you believe that the Phils are looking to sign those guys for more than one year?

If that's true, that's a hell of a deal for Seattle. Felix probably could've gotten 6-7 years, 130-150 million on the open market.

Give the Seattle GM credit. He's really turned that franchise around over the last couple years--taken a bloated payroll filled with aging veterans and turned it into a contender in the West built around pitching and defense.

MVP,
fair enough, but I think the floor is way higher than 15 per year. Heck, Lackey got around 15 per year, and Lee is better than Lackey.

No matter what he says publically, if I were Lee's agent I would be looking for more than Halladay money, since Halladay signed a below MV deal when compared to either Sabathia or Santana, both in terms of years and salary per year.

"what makes you believe that the Phils are looking to sign those guys for more than one year?"

-Ruiz: Because we have no other prospects in the minors and his value will only continue to increase.

- Blanton: Due to the fact that after this year we will have to shop for a #3 starter in a market next year that isn't very good for what we would need.

- Vic: For the same reason as Ruiz, except for the fact that it could be either Werth or Vic that we sign long term. But like I said above "creative accounting" can keep everyone here.

"If we have Sergio Escalona protecting a 9-8 lead in a Kendrick start of a game against the Nationals"

I doubt this would happen. The 9-8 ballgame in which KK starts. Maybe. But they would use Durbin or Madson in that spot most likely. So don't worry about Escalona in there.

Max: Exactly correct. That is why I was happy about the deal for Halladay.

Rube jumped on a opportunity to 1.) Save money on the BEST pitcher in baseball, 2.) Didn't have to gamble on whether Lee would hold them hostage after this year and 3.) Got some prospects for the system back in return.

This Felix signing just re-enforces that point. He signed to take away arb. years. But FA pitchers are going to look at his deal and go "Whoa, he got that? I am better than him and with more years. I am asking for $20+ mil/yr."

Rangers sign the young Catcher the Phils were hot after:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100118&content_id=7933102&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

The Rangers have signed Jorge Alfaro, a highly regarded 16-year-old catcher from Colombia, for $1.3 million, according to industry sources.

mvp - I actually agree on Chooch.

Not so sure on Vic - toolsy CF types are an area of some depth for the Phils farm system. I could easily see them signing Vic for a year and hoping that one of the guys (Gillies?) develops quickly.

I don't think they want to put a lot of money into Blanton.

Andy: Would you rather HOPE that a guy in the system steps in and produces like Vic does? Or would you rather just sign Vic? I would choose option B.

Gillies is most likely in Brown's same shoes in that they are both 1, maybe 2 years away.

That's a lot of money for a longshot prospect...I'm not upset that we didn't sink that kind of cash into a 16 year old.

I'd rather see them bust slot in the draft with that cash.

Tommy: I disagree with your take on the Felix deal. You seem to be saying it was a big deal, setting a high floor for pitchers. I strongly disagree.

There are VERY FEW pitchers who can make the argument they are even comparable to Felix. He's only 23 years old (turns 24 before the start of this year), and was one of the 5 best starters in baseball last year. He would've set the record for FA contracts for starting pitchers if he'd hit the market.

Vic will only be signed for 1 or 2 years, I'd think. There are too many young OFs in their system with the ability to play CF to lock him up long-term...It just doesn't make sense on a cost-control basis.

Jack: So you think his deal will actually hurt Lee and the others to hit FA in 2011? If so, how?

mvptommyd: It's hard to compare the organizational depth of catcher and CF. There are virtually no legitimate prospects at catcher in the Phils minor league system while there are at least 2 or 3 CF prospects.

"Phils minor league system while there are at least 2 or 3 CF prospects."

Right. But as I said. Those prospects are 2-3 years away.

Id like to see Rube go after Kiko Calero. i think hed be a good fit. has good numbers. just my 2...

Tommy: I don't think it has a bit of impact at all, actually, because, as others have pointed out, Felix had a couple of years of team control left.

You seem to think a lot of pitchers can make the case that they are comparable or better than Felix. Lee maybe can, but I don't see any other pitchers due to hit FA who can. Felix finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting last year, at age 23. That's pretty hard to top.

I do think Felix left a good amount of money on the table though. Had he hit FA in a couple of years, he likely would have set the record for a FA contract for a starting pitcher. Now it will be up to Lincecum.

I'd have to think that the Giants will do everything possible to lock Lincecum up long-term...I don't think they can afford to go year-to-year with him.

Jack: Beckett, Lee and Webb will get what Felix got, if not more.

Beckett, Lee and Webb are not at all in the same situation as King Felix. If he were a FA this offseason, like those 3 will be, he would get far more than them...in fact, he'd easily set the record for a pitcher. All 3 of those pitchers (if healthy and productive) will get a bigger deal than Felix got, but they're FAs, not several years away from it.

Jack,

Felix will still 'hit' the FA market at age 28 or 29 depending on if there is another year in current deal to take it to a 6 year deal, so don't worry too much about him. He'll get a chance, assuming he stays healthy, to play for the Yankees...

Chris: I know that. That isn't my point. Felix would get way more than those 3.

I am saying that what Feliz got is going to the be the LEAST that those 3 will get.

I mena "Felix" not "Feliz"....

Tommy: Maybe, maybe not. I think Lee probably deserves more, but Webb will have to show he's recovered from his injury this year, and while I think Beckett may get more, I don't think he deserves it. He's one of the more overrated pitchers in the game.

But as I said, Felix's deal doesn't really impact any of them, because it was a different situation. He had 2 years of team control left and couldn't negotiate with other teams.

On the open market, however, Felix would have gotten significantly more than them.

Jack: You are correct with Felix getting more in the open market. The only point we disagree on is that I think this move will affect the FA market while you think it won't. We will have to wait and see I guess....

Buying out arbitration years has little effect on the free agency market.

A similar case to this would be Pujols in 2004 when he got that 8 year, $116 million deal (well beneath his value)...however he bought out all 3 of his arb eligible years with it.

NEPP: Pujols is averaging the 4th Highest annual salary for a 1st baseman EVER. Behind on Tex( 22.5 mil in 2009),Howard(18 mil in 2009) and Helton(15.7 mil in 2003) and Pujols (14.285 mil in 2004)

I think his signing affected the market. Because guys that felt they were comparable to Pujols in eithier stats, winning a world series or just because the Yankees wanted them paid them more. Pujols salary was the bar back in 2004.

The 5-8 spots behind Pujols are Berkman, Morneau, Delgado and Lee (tied for 7th) and Guillen and Konerko (tied for 8th).

As I mentioned above Jimmy Rollins is getting married on Saturday in the Cayman Islands. Ryan Howard and Vic are among the invited guests. Along with groomsman Bobby Abreu.

A Earthquake struck the island today. But everyone is ok according to Channel 6 news reports...

Kiko would be a great final addition to out pen. Seems like he would cost around 3MM. Any chance that this actaully gets done?

A deal buying out someone's arb years has zero impact on free agent value. That's a whole different market.

Felix is an elite pitcher, who has lived up to the hype. And....he is very young for a pitcher of his stature.

It can truly be said that he is one of the top 5 pitchers in MLB - or, at the very, very least - he's in the discussion.

His age is what makes him so valuable. Aat the age of 23, it is probably more likely that he makes it through his 5 yr. contract healthy, than someone like Beckett, or even Lee.

I am a little surprised that he got as much as he did, given that he had 2 more years to FA. I thought that if they were successful he might get 5-7 yrs at an average of about $14 million.

For Phillies fans, pay attention to what Cliff Lee gets this offseason.

Cole Hamels is 5-1/2 years younger and will be an FA, with a resume that could potentially rival Lee's (except maybe for a CY). Hamels has an ERA+ of 121 (1.176 WHIP) at the age of 25, including last season's "slump". Lee had an ERA+ of 99 (1.393 WHIP) after his age 27 season.

Both are "premium" pitchers in that they are LH.

If Cole Hamels has 2 more years at his career norms - even including last seasons struggles - he will potentially be the most valuable LHSP, and maybe the most valuable SP on the FA market in 2 years.

awh - I think Cole will rebound like most BL'ers - but there is also a chance that his struggles continue and we have to determine what Cole Hamels circa 2012 is worth - not circa 2008.

Much more complicated.

****I think his signing affected the market. Because guys that felt they were comparable to Pujols in eithier stats, winning a world series or just because the Yankees wanted them paid them more. Pujols salary was the bar back in 2004.****

What would he have gotten on the open market? (The same market already paying guys like Manny, Arod, and Jeter $20-25 million per?)

Its not comparable.

****Kiko would be a great final addition to out pen. Seems like he would cost around 3MM. Any chance that this actaully gets done?****

No.

interesting article on payroll efficiency as an indicator of how well clubs were run in the 2000s. In analyzing money spent, games won and post season success the phillies weigh in as the sixth most well run team in baseball in the decade.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/01/19/verducci.efficiency/index.html?eref=sihp

The Phils spent the eleventh most on payroll, won the eleventh most regular season games, were in the second most penant races, and won the third most post season series.

incidentaly the mets were the worst run franchise behind the orioles.

In other news, Dayne Perry on foxsports.com

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/crystal-baseball

is prediction the AL Rookie of the Year will be:

MICHAEL TAYLOR.

Oh, and Perry also predicts a WS rematch. :)


(for what it's worth)

Talk aboutan emascualted GM?

From MLBTR:

"Earlier today we learned that GM Omar Minaya was never given a budget this offseason, and instead must seek approve from COO Jeff Wilpon on a case-by-case basis."

Programming Note:

Brad Lidge will be on 610 WIP tomorrow between 10-3 on Gargano and Macnow's show.

They said today that when they were booking him he mentioned that he said he "would be ready for the start of the season".

Should be an interesting interview tomorrow.

So Jeff Wilpon is that dumb too?

Werth is as good as gone after this season. He'll get picked up by one of the REAL big boys, and hopefully we'll have brown waiting in the wings.

Hopefully they can extend Cole for some more years, but I suspect that he's headed back home to the West Coast.

And Howard... Well, the rumors are that he turned down the Pujols deal, the Utley deal, and that he's gunning for the big one.

agree with others who say that the King Felix deal has absolutely zero impact on the free agent market for next year, for Lee and every other FA pitcher.

Also don't think that Cliff Lee's 2011 contract, numbers at age 27 or his similiar handedness to Hamels will offer any preview or insight into what Hamels will be on the market for either.

Two pretty unrelated situations in my opinion... people just getting antsy to find anything baseball/phillies to talk about - but cant blame them, i'm feeling the pain as well.

>So Jeff Wilpon is that dumb too?

Wilpon's fortune got wiped out due to Bernie Madoff, and they aren't selling out their new cool stadium.

I think the mets might be vying for the cellar spot with the nats again.

re Durbin

Thought the Phils got extremely lucky in 2008 when Durbin failed to make the rotation, fell into the pen, and ended up pitching very effectively.

He didnt duplicate those numbers in 09, although i do remember him showing flashes of stuff late into the season when he came back off the DL(was it the DL or did he just never see action for a long period of time?).

I think him making over $2M is kind of a joke while there have been reliever with much stronger numbers and track records in the past few offseasons that settle for similiar type money.

Arbritation has completely ignored the economy that the free agent market has dealt with. When you have teams feared for their lives to offer arbritration to soon to be free agents, it should tell them something.

Joe: I think Wilpon "only" lost $8million in the Madoff scheme, not the $50mil+ it was rumored to be.

I will concede my argument that King Felix's signing will be used as the floor for the FA class of 2011 pitchers, since I am clearly outnumbered on the issue. I am just looking to talk anything baseball besides the "%" of times Utley pulls the ball over the past 3 seasons.

Oh well....

Tomorrow Lidge does speak for the first time since his "minor" sugery on his knee. Hopefully he does say what was "teased" and in fact will be ready for Opening Day. Will that put BLers at ease if he says that? Ehhh, most likely not.

Yeah, Tommy, I think we can trust Lidge. Didn't he say he was healthy all through last season, when it was clear to anyone watching that he was not okay and that he'd altered his delivery.

And I think we can believe him when he says his god is the real god, his wife is beautiful and his children are brilliant - To paraphrase HL Menken.

If there's anything we've learned over the years it's that we can't trust player's when it comes to their own health. I'm aware that the sun never sets in your Phillies world, but even you must see that to be true.

phaithful, so, you don't think comparing Cliff Lee (lifetime ERA+ before 2008: 94; lifetime ERA+ after 2008: 109), and what he might get for and FA contract, to Cole Hamels (lifetime ERA+: 121) at a similar age or younger, offers any insight to what Hamels might get or ask for if his lifetime ERA+ is still 121 when/if he becomes a FA?

Do you think Cole's agent or other agents won't be comparing them and trying to assess their relative value given Hamels will be 5-1/2 years younger?

You don't think what one FA pitcher makes in one year affects what another pitcher makes in subsequents years?

Interesting.

Yo, new thread


Interesting.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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