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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Comments

"I'm aware that the sun never sets in your Phillies world, but even you must see that to be true."

Yea, I guess your right Akasmith. I maybe shouldn't be so high on a team that has won 3 division titles, 2 NL Pennants, and 1 WS Championship in the past 3 years.

Guess I have to work on my pleasure after sitting through years of awful baseball being played for 81 games a year down there in South Philadelphia.

What, no acknowledgement for first reporting this as soon as it happened? Guess I am not BLer "Elite" status yet....

Tommy - Yeah, because three years in the past means everything is rosy tomorrow.

That's why I took a bath last week, but never again. I smelled pretty darned good a week ago. Let's see how that turns out.

I think I'll take "light posting" over this topic.

Verducci considers the Phillies the sixth most efficently run team of the past decade, using some dubious math as a factor.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/01/19/verducci.efficiency/index.html?eref=sihp

aksmith: Wow.

1.) you must be from the "BAP" camp where everything is wrong or going to go wrong, until it doesn't and then you are happy. But only for a brief second, until you can think of more negative things.

2.) You must not be a season ticket holder or 17-game plan holder. Because everyone I know that paid alot of money over the years to watch garbage will watch THIS type of baseball ANYDAY of the week over what we were watching in the late 90's and early 2000's.

So keep being negative but Lidge will be fine, Romero will be healthy and 2010 will be another fun year.

I can't believe people are so negative. This team won 90+ games last season all while blowing 20+ games, missing Romero and having the worst closer in the MLB.

Even if this team has a Lidge that is half the 2008 Lidge and Romero being back to half of his 2008 form, the Phillies should win close to 100 games with the team assembled.

I lurk for a minute or so every day (need my Phillies fix), and I can't help but notice how much mvptommy posts. What do you do for a living? I'm not trying to pick a fight. Just wondering. (BTW - you sure keep the conversation going on the off-season. Good work.)

JW pays him to post.

Well the man is from Oakland so I'm sure he's dealt with his share of quakes.

As for Lidge, I predict his ERA is cut in half and so are his blown saves. He'll be decent next season and that's plenty good for this team.

Looks like the Giants and Tim Lincecum are in for a Ryan Howard / phils situation. Tim filed for 13MM and Giants 8MM.

Off the top of my head it appears like a win for Timmy. Would that set a record for pitchers? I assume it would.

Bobby Abreu is a groomsman? That reminds me. That was a great trade we made!

;-)

Greg Maddux owns the Arb record for a pitcher at 15 mil, back when he surprisingly accepted the Braves' offer and they were forced to trade Millwood as a result.

It would set a record for a first-time arb-eligible player, though. Howard currently owns that record at 10 mil. And I don't see any way the arbitrator goes with the Giants' number, that's way too low.

Yeah, that 8 million seems very low.

-- Looks like the Giants got Molina back. Glad to see him stay out west.

Salisbury has arbitration numbers:

"Victorino, who made $3.25 million in 2009, filed an arbitration request of $5.8 million, while the team offered $4.75 million."

"Blanton is seeking $10.25 million; the team offered $7.5 million. Ruiz is seeking $2.5 million; the team offered $1.7 million."

Here's Salisbury's column. It says Phils talking multi-year with Vic but that it may only be through his arbitration eligible years. If that's the case, it's about cost-control and not about keeping Vic long-term. At least that's my take on it.

Tommy - In fact, I think the Phils have made a lot of great moves to tweak the nucleus brought in by Wade. And that has given the team the best sustained success in the history of the franchise. That's great and all. But that says more about the history of the franchise than the greatness of the current team.

I too think the Phillies are still very good and could have been an all time great team if they had been willing to spend a little more money this season and maybe 30 million more for the next 2-3 seasons.

But I have been a fan a little longer than you. My first year attending games was 1964 if that tells you anything.

I think the Phils have made a lot of good moves recently. But that doesn't mean I've had a lobotomy. I actually like Polanco at third and think his final year of that contract may very well be spent at second base. I love the Halladay trade. Didn't like the Lee trade much, but I think Gillies has good upside and so does Aumont, although they either need to fix his mechanics or hire a good orthopedist to have him fitted for a bionic arm.

I think they're either going to have to let Howard walk at the end of his contract or have Werth walk after this season. And that leaves a hole from the right side if Werth walks.

The pen without Chan Ho and Eyre is weaker by any definition. You say Lidge and Romero will come back healthy and all will be well in the land of the Phillies. And all I say is that you have zero idea if that's true and any good organization makes plans just in case, especially when the thing they're planning for has already happened to both players during the most recent season. Do I think the Phillies have made adequate contingency plans? No, by about half.

What I have just laid out is a reasoned, non-overreacting, not overly rosy scenario. I think the Phillies will suffer a bit because Rube has undervalued the pen and managed to give a soft tossing 46 year old a two year contract when nobody else in baseball had a bit of interest in him. And I think their overall talent this season will very likely carry them to another division and probably NL win. And everything is riding on Hamels. Should he revert to previous form, the Phils have a good shot at winning another WFC. Should he not, they have little chance unless a couple of Yankmee starters pull their groins in the AL Championship series.

Does that sound like I have nothing positive to say about the Phillies? Even in your world?

Good news for Mets fans? Molina re-signs with Giants. I kinda hoped they would have locked him in for 3 years.

Wow, considering those numbers, I see the Phils winning with Blanton and probably Ruiz. I think they'll settle with Vic before the hearing.

But Blanton's number seems pretty unrealistic. Now, there's no way they can even settle with him at the midpoint. And I wonder if they're beating themselves up for offering him arb.

Vic clearly isn't a good negotiator...he seriously lowballed himself.

Blanton is dreaming.

Bengie Molina...yet another player that really didn't want to sign with NY...a hell of an organization they're running there.

Though this does show that Brian Sabean is not content with his place among the worst GMs in baseball.

Aksmith: For you, that is positive. I still love how everytime you say something positive the very next word you type is "but" followed by a bigger negative.Love it! Keep it up!

You also say some funny things. You said, "a little more money this season and maybe 30 million more for the next 2-3 seasons". Yea, I love that too. But the Phillies are going to be 4th in MLB in payroll this season. Behind the Red Sox (own a Tv Station), Yankees (own a TV station) and Mets (Own a tv station). What is the common trend there?

They increased their payroll by 15 million between 2008 and 2009. This year they are increasing payroll by another 30 million. What else do you want???? I am a season ticket holder and I am happy with their increased payroll and would love even more money spending, but I am not a dummy. I know they have a budget too (Whether BLers want to believe it or not).

Finally, you acknowledge that they will most likely win the NL east and another NL pennant. With Hamels being the wild card for the WS, which is absolutely true. Then why are you complaining?

If AS THEY ARE NOW in your words "will very likely carry them to another division and probably NL win". Why are you complaining about the attention Rube spent on the bullpen? You are ocntradicting yourself.

I think JW is going to great lengths to get Bobby Abreu's name into the header to drive traffic...

In all seriousness, glad to hear J-Rol is unharmed.

Honestly looking back, getting rid of Abreu transformed the locker room and made this team a winner.

Best trade we ever made.


~waits for it~

NEPP: I don't know if that was sarcastic or not, but I agree. That is why I nicknamed him "The Ultimate Cooler". Because every team he goes to come playoff time goes ice cold.

I mean he played on the Yankees and didn't win a ring. Now that is saying something....

MVP, you'll see the blowback from clout among others very shortly.

FWIW, I wasn't sad to see Abreu go...just sad that we got nothing in return. That entire trade just kinda crashed and burned IMHO.

I welcome Clout's backlash. Abreu is "The Ultimate Cooler" for a reason. He puts up "fake numbers", runs horrible routes, is lazy in the field and is afraid of the wall.

He is 1-4 in his playoff career in series.

BREAKING NEWS:

PHILLIES SIGN BLANTON TO 3 YEAR DEAL

Vic and Ruiz are next for 3 year deals. Rube says no to arb. table.

Where's the Blanton deal coming from???

Link?

Per 610 WIP. More info to come I hope.

I see nothing from Twitter (Zolecki, Lauber, etc).

I tend to doubt 610 occasionally.

If there is anyone who knows less about the game of baseball posting on this blog than mvptommyd, I can't imagine who it would be.

A review of his posts shows that he has no clue about the strengths and weaknesses of players he posts about, has no clue how free agent market prices get set, has no clue who's good in the locker room and who isn't, has no clue about the randomness of relief picther stats, and has no clue about which prospects are more likely to pan out and which are more likely to fail.

The question is, does mvptommy have a clue about anything?

mvptommyd: I bet they sign Vic only through his arbitration years and are prepared to move on with one of the prospects. But if the prospects flame out, they'll see where they stand with Vic in a couple years.

NEPP: "I wasn't sad to see Abreu go...just sad that we got nothing in return. That entire trade just kinda crashed and burned IMHO."

My feelings exactly. When you trade that kind of production, you need to get at least one prospect who's a near sure-thing to contribute.

I see nothing on Blanton still...and nothing even on WIP (internet is great sometimes, eh?)

Okay, I can't listen to 610 anymore...I forgot how terrible Eskin was. Nothing about Blanton in the last 15 min.

Nevermind...they just said it again...Blanton avoids arb with a 3 year deal.

Hmm.

clout: Hey... don't we still have a couple prospects from that trade in the system? Don't think we should give up on that deal just yet! ;-)

i HATE Eskin. Talk about a negadelphian.

I saw Blanton asked for $10.25 Mil and was offered $7.5 Mil (MLBTradeRumors)

Does anyone think he'll get anything over 9 Mil???

Interesting deal with Blanton. If they money is right, could be a good thing for the Phils. This will only be his Age 29 season, and if he stays healthy, there's little reason why he can't be our #3 starter for at least the next two years. Having Halladay-Hamels-Blanton signed helps keep that window open.

Long time reader, first time poster.

In response to "clout" who said: "If there is anyone who knows less about the game of baseball posting on this blog than mvptommyd, I can't imagine who it would be. The question is, does mvptommy have a clue about anything?", I'd like to say that I've found Tommy's posts to be both sensible and accurate, and that the predictions I've read under his username have been pretty close to the mark more often than not.

In contrast, much of the Clout posts that I've read contain flames, circular reasoning and false logic. They're very frequently self-serving and seem to exist only to put others down while promoting himself. Any positive contribution this poster has made is lost in the myriad of childish nonsense that is typical of a Clout post. It's a shame. This blog is highly informative and enjoyable otherwise.

Blanton is smoking something WAY better than me if he thinks he will get 10.25M ... if the 610 reports are true, I hope it is like a 3yr deal for between $25-27M

Blanton at $8-9 million per is not really a huge bargain.

@NEPP -- If it were more towards the 3yrs/$25M, I'd be ok with it considering the FO is offering up $7.5M. I agree that anything at or above $9M would be too much -- although I don't know what comparable guys with Joe's numbers and age are getting this offseason.

Yo, new thread.

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