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Thursday, January 28, 2010

Comments

"It makes some sense in a half-season plan if Moyer is indeed done, knowing the Phillies won't really need a fifth starter until it starts warming up in May."

...but at $5 mil.?

No - to clarify, probably half that amount.

aksmith: Didn't Rube say in November that the payroll would be "around 140 million". $141 million (which it will be) is pretty accurate, no?

If we re-signed every $15-20 million FA we will have, plus fill in the rest of the team, our payroll would rival the Yankees at around $170-180 million. Good luck thinking that will happen.

Phillies Red: Would be nice, I agree. But won't happen. Payroll is tapped out for 2010.

Now this is a tough one. $5M will seemingly put the Phils over budget (if the approximate $140M budget is to be believed), leaving no room for in-season maneuvers. Tough call.

Jason makes a good point when he writes: "Part of the problem could have been missing all the preparation that would have happened during an organized spring training." If that is true, the perhaps it's worth a gamble. Pedro did pitch some pretty decent games for the Phils. It's a shame that his last was Game 6.

Also, worth noting. Pedro hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, when he started 31 games. His 2006-2009 season looked like this:

2006: 23 GS, 4.48 ERA, 132.2 IP, 97 ERA+
2007: 5 GS,2.57 ERA, 28 IP,167 ERA+
2008: 20GS, 5.61, 109 IP, 75 ERA+
2009: 9 GS,3.63 ERA, 44.2 IP,117 ERA+

So as you can see since 2005, the most he has pitched is 132.2 innings and for only 23 games in 2006. He just doesn't have it in him to pitch for a full season anymore. This bit us last season, you can give him a ST to get ready (as JW suggests) but I don't think it will make a difference. No sense giving him money when you have Moyer limping around too.

Plus, it doesn't fit in the budget, so this won't happen anyway.

I'd rather spend 5 million on a Jon Garland-type.

I can't understand this one. If you bring back Pedro, and that spell the end of Moyer as a starter, then does he go the 'pen as the 2nd lefty? And what about KK?

But underlying all of this is why are we messing around with all of this? If rhey are trying to get Moyer to retire now, why didn't rhey do this 2 months ago and just keep Lee?

If Rube puts up $5million for Pedro after trading Lee for prospects he's got even more disdain for public opinion than he gets credit for.

BobbyD - A little too late, Padres already wrapped up a deal with Garland.

Hopefully the FO won't go down this road. Even though Pedro pitched well for us last season (for the most part), he's too old/injury prone to invest 5 mil in him.

DPatrone - If you were Moyer and had 6.5 million sitting on the table, why would you retire and leave that much money on the table?

I'd pay him $5 million just to listen to his press conferences. Non stop entertainment.

The Phillies are in a good position to wait Pedro out. They can get by with KK or Carpenter until they get a better idea of what Moyer can give them, because chances are at least a couple of guys out of the Pedro/Wang/Bedard group will still be available a couple of months in to the season. I would love to see Bedard sign for a few million in June/July with three months + playoffs to prove he deserves a rich deal next offseason.

**** If you were Moyer and had 6.5 million sitting on the table, why would you retire and leave that much money on the table?***

Even better, its $8 million, not $6.5 million on that table. He met several of his contract incentives last year (150 IP, 160 IP, 23 GS, 25 GS).

I think "getting to the mound without a walker" was also on the incentive list, too. Right?

And refraining from yelling at the infielders, "Hey you kids! Get off the lawn!!"

If I were Moyer and WANTED to retire, I might be open to letting the Phillies structure the $8 million they owe me in such a way that I come out ahead over the long run and the team has some current cash advantages.

But, as a fan, I hope Moyer doesn't want to retire and will have a productive 2010 .

Pedro was likely sick to some degree during his WS start. He even might have had the flu.

Making him the full-time No. 5 starter seems like a real-stretch too. He just wouldn't hold up over the course of a season. Hell, I don't even think he could give the Phils 20 starts. Max is likely around 15 starts give or take for him really to be healthy enough to be effective.

I wouldn't seeing him come back through around mid-season (say July 1st or so) and give this team around 14-15 starts or so. That is an area where I think Pedro could help this team.

In my mind, spring training is actually a detriment for him. In other words, he only has so many bullets, and if you use too many in March, you'll have none left in August.

When he's on, he's great, but as Jason said, all the stars have to line up for that to happen.

As MG said, Pedro was clearly sick and completely unable to breathe during game 6. It was painful watching him trying to catch his breath.

In fact, if Charlie had used his head, he'd have gone with bullpen games in games 6 and 7 rather than send out a guy who couldn't catch his breath to lose the clincher.

I don't understand how we can expect 47 year old Jamie Moyer, coming off of multiple surgeries, to pitch effectively in the rotation for 2010, yet a pitcher who is almost 10 years younger, not coming off of surgery and who's had a career that dwarfs Moyer in every possible way cannot be expected to pitch a full season in Philadelphia as the #5 starter.

Pedro was the better choice in 2009 and he's the better choice in 2010. Considering the ridiculous number of days between his starts in the post season, his flu and the magnitude of the situation, he performed as well or better than nearly anyone in the same circumstances.

Given a full spring training, no WBC and a steady role in the rotation, I see absolutely no reason why Pedro Martinez wouldn't outperform any #5 starter in the National League.

Now, whether or not that is worth $5 million is another story, but if Jamie is unable to pitch in 2010 and fails to retire, I think his days as a Philadelphia folk hero will be over, as will any chance that he will coach in the organization in the future.

"In fact, if Charlie had used his head,..."

Blame NutriSystem, he is no longer able to trust the gut.

Per the above article about Game 6...it should be noted that Pedro apparently did have the flu really bad throughout the WS...odd in retrospect that he got 2 of 6.

FYI...thegoodphight.com blog is putting together their own top 30 prospect list, and they have posted a primer that I think is extremely well done in terms of succinctly explaining some of the most important statistics in evaluating minor league hitters and pitchers. I highly recommend checking it out.

Those whio do maybe able to hang a little better with clout in the future when talking about prospects.

pat the bat~

I didn't say the Phils wouldn't pay Moyer his money. He's been a good soldier of course and I'm thinking that they pay his salary over a period of time, not that he would lose it.

I say sign Pedro now because he's the ideal 5th starter. Keep him fresh and skip him every 3rd start and plug in Contreras or Kendrick to stretch them out. Moyer, if healthy, probably won't contribute until after the all star break, if at all. We wouldn't be discussing this right now if the Phils manned up and kept Lee instead of dishing out all that cash to Blanton and a few other FA's. If they had two bulls at the top of the rotation like Halladay and Lee going every fifth day then re-tooling your bullpen doesn't seem as urgent.

"Those whio do maybe able to hang a little better with clout in the future when talking about prospects."

SmokyJoe: "hang a little better"? I think the word you are looking for is "BS a little better".

Per Scott Lauber, the Phillies will have a representative at Noah Lowry's throwing session tomorrow.

Additionally, Pedro can just flat out pitch! I would march Pedro out against any of the remaining SP's available in free agency today and feel confident that he was going to give my team the best chance to win. He knows how to pitch and set up batters to get themselves out. Not many pitchers in the league today know how to do that on a consistent basis. Not many former power pitchers figured out how to transition to finesse pitchers and still pitch effectively.

mvptommy: Were you the one who thinks John Mayberry Jr. is going to be a better big league player than Michael Taylor?

Jack: I said he can/could be as good if not better than Taylor at the MLB level, yes. What's your point? Taylor hasn't even played a game in the MLB yet so please don't tell me you are going to mock me over that statement.

FWIW, to all the people who were ripping on Law for being inconsistent on Drabek, in his top 100 prospects list released today, he has Drabek at #40, and says he has "a chance to be a #2 or #3 starter". I believe that's pretty close to what he was saying about him when he was still a Phillie, right?

I think Law decided to backtrack when he was caught in flagranto delicti.

He made the statements that everyone saw, suddenly ranking Drabek, for instance, higher the moment he was no longer a Phillie. He was called on it. So, he's modified his suddenly insane praise of the former Phillies.

I see no contradiction in what Law has done. He is intellectually dishonest, and now he's shown that he's just plain overall dishonest.

In another tweet, Lauber says Jose Contreras believes pitching in relief can lengthen his career.

Defintely not a CHP attitude.

If we sing Pedro to big money, I'll feel even worse about trading Lee.

I still think they should just wait to see. I'd rather have them just give the #5 spot to Kendrick and save any extra cash for that mid-season pickup to bolster a weak area. They'll have more flexibility.

Once again....WGAS about Keith Law?

"Once again....WGAS about Keith Law?"

AWH, I think this your comment of the year.

Some News and Notes on this slow newsday per MLBtraderumors:

- The Red Sox lowered their offer to Jason Bay from four years to two years because they were "scared to death" of his knees, according to Peter Gammons

- Jon Heyman of SI.com says (via Twitter) that the Mets will sign Tatis. This means Carlos Delgado will have to look for a job elsewhere

***Good job Omar, keep up the good work. Rube and Omar are the dynamic duo****

- The Brewers have agreed to sign Jim Edmonds to a minor league deal that will pay the outfielder $850K if he makes the team and up to $1.65MM more in incentives.

- 15 teams set to watch Lowry on Tuesday.

***Nothing to get excited about BLers. Rube just covering his bases.****

- Nats sign BLer favorite and popular closer candidate Tyler Walker to a 1 yr/650k deal.

mvptommyd: Jack's point is you know absolutely nothing about the relative potential of minor league prospects. Your statements about Mayberry and Taylor were so laughably ignorant of the strengths, weaknesses and ceiling, an 8-year-old would laugh at them. Stick to things you have some knowledge of, although God knows what that is.

Does anyone think even the stupidest GM in baseball would give Pedro $5M? Even if you were in utter and complete denial of Pedro's stats over the past 4 years, like Schweitzer is above, you wouldn't pay him $5M in today's market.

clout: Aww, are you a little upset because I made fun of you earlier about your usual weasel-like self. Now all of a sudden you didn't hate it "per se". Seemed the lefthandness is working out better than expected. Stick to being a weasel.

Regarding, Mayberry and Taylor, why don't you wait and see how each develop in the MLB before shooting your mouth off once again.

I'm a Pedro sympathizer so I'm fine with brining him back. Despite his awful Game 6 of the World Series, people forget how good he was in Game 3 of the NLCS. In all honesty, I'd rather have him than Smoltz.

Would Smoltz be a better candidate than Pedro because he's (probably?) cheaper and has closing experience?

It makes no sense to me, but I get a strong feeling, maybe it is intiution or remote time viewing, but I can see Pedro wearing the Phillies bloodstripes and being our 5th starter. I offer this observation for what it's worth, not worth much. No one ever confuses Lake Fred with clout, ha ha! However, I have been accused of being Andy, whoever he is.

Tommy - don't you find it interesting that Maberry was not rumored in any trade whatsoever (Lee, Halladay) - but Taylor was a key component?

Does that not tell you how the two prospects are viewed?

I find it laughable that you think Mayberry is even a similar prospect to Taylor.

I really wish we were both GM's and I had exclusive rights to minor league trades with you.

We'll always have Pedro's 130 pitch, 8 IP dominance over the Mets. For one last night, the old Pedro showed up and made us all remember why baseball is so great and why the truly great players hang on so long sometimes.

What a performance and what an amazing game to watch. I'm still stunned that UC left him in the game in the 8th.

Clearly the BlueJays knew better than to ask for Mayberry. He is an untouchable prospect.

mvptommy: You make a habit out of calling clout on the carpet for dishonesty in his statements. Hypocrisy from you is inevitable.

You absolutely said Mayberrry would be a better major league talent than Taylor. In fact, at every turn you downplayed all signs, stats, and scouting reports that indicated Taylor would be better. Your rationale for Mayberrry being a better player was that his father played baseball.

So were you being intentionally argumentative then or intellectually dishonest now?

"I didn't think *people* actually read this site."

Just wondering, JW, what that makes us.

;)

"...accused of being Andy, whoever he is."

Or, per Weitzel (see above) "whatever."

I'm a big Pedro fan. At his best, there never has been a better pitcher.

Now, however, Pedro is fragile. He can't be counted on for a full season, but from May through September, Pedro can still be very effective. He might be good for 20 or so starts.

I would sign him to a pro-rated $2.5 million contract. He would be a big help during the regular season and maybe in the post-season whenever the weather is good.

Curt: Those were just released today on BP, and I don't think they are very useful, because they aren't accurately adjusted for playing time. Also, obviously a lot will change roster-wise for teams between now and April 1.

The BP projections are interesting and can be very useful (in 2008, PECOTA pegged the Rays for 91 wins, I believe, when they had never finished above 70 before. Obviously that was quite a prescient prediction). But let's take a look at them at the end of March.

It is interesting to note some of PECOTA's player projections. Not surprisingly, they see some major regression in Ibanez, pegging him at .265/.336/.429, which would constitute a massive drop in power. They're also seeing a dip from Howard, down to .250/.351/.501. I may be considered bearish on Howard around here, but I'd be shocked if he even approached that low of a SLG, and I'd probably bet the over on AVG and OBP as well (though the OBP is probably the closest).

Quite optimistic on some other Phils though. Polanco is projected for .304/.358/.422. I think we'd all take that in a heartbeat, no? They like a bounce-back season for Rollins, hitting .279/.339/.464, with 19 HRs and 30 SBs. They like Shane to repeat last year (which many considered a career year), hitting .291/.358/.449. They also see Werth basically repeating his year from last year, projecting him at .268/.371/.494. If we get those sorts of seasons from those guys (along with Utely's standard excellence), we should do just fine, even if Ibanez does drop off.

I don't see anything that makes me think this team isn't primed to win the NL again. Early for predictions, but I'll go 92 wins and another NL East crown, and only that low because I'm hedging against injuries. If the team stays quite healthy, I could easily see 94-96 wins.

I'm an optimist and predict 100 wins for the Phillies based primarily on two factors:
1. A full season of Roy Halladay and
2. Fewer blown slaves.

Having shown loyalty to Lidge in '09, Charley won't be nearly so patient in '10. Lidge should be better in '10. If not, the Phillies will have other options.

Something is wrong with those BP predictions when three teams in the AL East are set for 90+ wins and none in the whole of the NL.

I suggest $2M with incentives based on games started or innings pitched. Have him start the season as the 5th starter, but sit him every 4th start to keep him fresh. This means someone like Jose Contreras, Jamie Moyer, or Kyle Kendrick would fill in. Sounds crazy, but it might work.

One game. If Pedro had pitched great the last game he would have been a folk hero and probably resigned. Then again Lee couldn't have done any better or his contract any cheaper and he was hustled out of town. The Phillies love to play with one hand tied behind their back.

Well, this should shut up the people that say trading Cliff Lee was about money. (I know, the carcass has been beaten so badly you can no longer tell it was once a horse.)

what about c.m wong - late of the yankees?

i bet he could be had for the $5m pedro dollars..

Give him a incentive loaded contract for him to reach his 5 million. Alot of you are right on the money, that 5 million would have fit nicely in Cliff Lee's pocket. I feel Amaro made an error there.

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