Poll: Phillies change the mix with several newcomers

The Phillies made a number of additions and subtractions this offseason, with the possibility of more on the way. From this list of six acquisitions, pick the player with the best chance of providing a boost over their predecessor.

Comments

[CJ]

This one seems easy... because Polanco is a significantly better player than Feliz. However, Halladay for the full season is a huge upgrade over the short time we had Lee. Gload lead the league in pinch hits last year and Stairs was almost completely ineffective. And Eric Brutlett was the worst positional player in baseball (based on my own combination of statistics and personal beliefs).

But, yeah, I voted for Polanco.

[euphronius]

I think the offensive upgrade of Polanco assuming a neutral defensive change will be the biggest upgrade.

[mvptommyd]

From Previous thread at the end. But too good not to post...

"Don't care about Lidge's career stats at all as they include years where he was actually good."

What!!! So you are going to pick and choose years to compare your point? So you are taking 2008 out of the mix since it was so good? You make ZERO sense.

AND....TO THE POST OF THE DAY

"I mean, the Phillies of 2009 prove how overrated a "closer" is....How important could it be? Most games were won in innings 1-8, not bottom or top of the 9th."

You are a dope.

This guy has to be joking right?

[euphronius]

great arguments mvptommyd. I'm literally blown away by your persuasive authority.

[thephaithful]

In gerenal i think Halladay is the biggest upgrade, but since Lee pitched over his head as a Phillie in my opinion, the upgrade wont really show too much.

Seems like most will go for Polanco, but my vote is for Schneider, since i hated Bako that much. I love Chooch, but he hits under .100 for a pretty large stretch at some point almost every year.

And I am pretty sure that Baez replacing Park in the pen might be a winner on the 'which newcomer will be the biggest downgrade' poll.

[thephaithful]

because you're only cool if you repost:

The reason why the Phils won 90+ games and the NL East is because their division was awful and they had an incredible offense.

The reason (one of) why the Phillies made the World Series is because Brad Lidge pitched 4 scoreless innings between the NLDS and NLCS while almost every other closer in the 09 playoffs blew at least 1 game.

It sounds as though your main quarrell is with the idea of the closer role in general than it is your quarrel with Brad Lidge.

[mvptommyd]

Euph: I am stunned by you spewing nonsense that you can pick and choose years to compare Lidge. Along with not only Lidge but closers' in general being overrated.

I don't need to defend my arguments with dispute your argument. Your words alone do the trick.

[euphronius]

Well lets pick Sheffield's best three years and predict next season with them. I predict Sheffield will OPS .950 with 35 HRs next year.

Oh wait that makes no sense.

[mvptommyd]

euphr: You are the one saying that Lidge stinks as a closer and you cited that he has had bad years. But in 2008, he had a great year that you don't talk into account.

Seems with that Sheffield post, you are going against your own argument. Thanks.

[euphronius]

"It sounds as though your main quarrell is with the idea of the closer role in general than it is your quarrel with Brad Lidge."

Both.
I think "closers" are vastly overrated and Lidge is vastly overpaid. You cant even bring him in with men on base!! Holy cow.

Worst contract on the team by far.

[clout]

NEPP: "I think "Inherited Runs" is the best measure of a reliever in a lot of cases."

I agree. It basically boils down to doing the job you're supposed to do, whether it's stranding runners for a middle reliever or preserving the win for a closer.

[mvptommyd]

Ok, enough with this silly "closers' ar eoverrated" debate....

My pick to the question is Gload. The upgrade to the bench is something we needed.

Halladay and Lee for 2010 would have been comparable.

Polanco is an upgrade offensively but slight downgrade defensively over Feliz.

The biggest jump out of the mix will be Gload over Stairs.

[euphronius]

Hey Sheff had a great year once.

I'm sure he will do great this year.

Right?

[mvptommyd]

"Worst contract on the team by far."

Wow, can you please stop. Please anyone help me out here.

Moyer's $8 million(because of incentives) is worse, so is the $1.25 million we still owe Jenkins and $500K we still owe Eaton.

Lidge's contract, if he doesn't revert back to 2008 status would be the 4th worst.

[NEPP]

I went with Halladay since a full year of Halladay will likely be worth much more than 2 months of Cliff Lee.

[Chris in VA]

Schneider got my vote. He provides a solid and legitimate back-up option at catcher that we didn't have last year. A seasoned and skilled veteran catcher around the clubhouse is never a bad thing for the team to have.

[euphronius]

Gload had a 729 OPS last year

Stairs had a 735 OPS last year.

[mvptommyd]

I think this post is going to be the most varied in opinion. Because they are ALL improvements (Maybe minus Chan Ho). It is just up to everyone's different opinion as to "how much?".

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Definitely Polanco, at least offensively. Defensively he'll be a downgrade, but I actually don't think by much, Polanco's still got a great glove, even if his arm isn't as good as Feliz's.

[euphronius]

"Moyer's $8 million(because of incentives) is worse, so is the $1.25 million we still owe Jenkins and $500K we still owe Eaton."

Moyer 2009 WAR: 0.6
Lidge 2009 WAR: -0.7

I agree the Jenkins and Eaton ones are worse, you are right there.

[mvptommyd]

"Moyer 2009 WAR: 0.6
Lidge 2009 WAR: -0.7 "

Ok, by that Logic

Gavin Floyd 2009 WAR 4.5
Cole Hamels 2009 WAR 3.8

I guess you would trade for Floyd straight up then by your example above, no?

[A-Train]

Euph,

If you had just one on your team, are you saying you'd rather have Moyer than Lidge?

[A-Train]

Hard to think you can do much better than Cliff Lee. Castro won't play much. Chopper did well so I'm hoping Baez is a wash. Polanco will probably hit better than Pedro but not sure about the field. Which brings my options to Gload or Schneider. Even though I don't think Gload will go 0 for 26 during the year, my vote is for Schneider b/c he's a professional catcher who will handle the staff well and see a lot more action than Gload. He is far better than Bako.

[euphronius]

"Euph,

If you had just one on your team, are you saying you'd rather have Moyer than Lidge?"

Christ no. they are both terrible. But at least Moyer was better than a replacement player.

[mvptommyd]

euph: You are dodging A-train's question. Who would you chose Moyer or Lidge?

And you didn't answer my question. By your WAR post, you would trade Floyd for Hamels?

[mvptommyd]

* should be Hamels for Floyd..

[euphronius]

By your WAR post, you would trade Floyd for Hamels?

no because Hamels has more consistent over the years. If If Floyd can do it for 1 or 2 more years then they would be similar pitchers.
Let's see what Floyd does this year. He is turning into a great pitcher though.

[PHIinBK]

This is a list of choices?!? These all look like lateral moves at best. (Lee to Halladay, as has been analyzed ad nauseum, is not that huge of a jump). To chose any of these is basically saying in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

Of all the moves I am extremely disappointed with the Castro-Bruntlett "replacement." RH Bat/INF was a huge hole last season that had to be addressed. The Phillies overused Utley and Rollins b/c Bruntlett was an automatic out. So the big idea is to replace him with another automatic out?
Castro is a career .230/.270/.332 hitter while Bruntlett weights in at .231/.303/.330.

This is a huge swing and a miss by Ruben Amaro.

[euphronius]

If you had just one on your team, are you saying you'd rather have Moyer than Lidge?

Posted by: A-Train

Obviously. Moyer does less damage to the payroll and is off the pay roll next year.

Phillies still owe Lidge 24+ million.

[euphronius]

Bruntlett was terrible in the field. The problem is Castro appears to be worse!

Oh Ruben.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I hated the Castro signing, but he won't be playing much so it's not a big deal.

A lot of those moves may appear lateral, but Halladay for a full season is huge and Polanco's offense SHOULD be a big addition.

[Chris in VT]

Halladay will definitely be the biggest upgrade. I loved Lee, but people forget that he only went 7-4 in the regular season for us with a 3.4 ERA before dominating the playoffs. In his last month of the regular season (8/29-9/25) he went 2-3 with an ERA of 6.35.

I would be shocked if Halladay doesn't vastly outperform that.

[ozark]

Even if he doesn't turn an UTP, Castro is an upgrade overall Brunt purely because of his existence on the roster.

[Slugdog]

This poll was very tough to pick one, which is not good...

[timr]

If Baez ends up actually performing better than Park I will be amazed, because Park was a REALLY good reliever last year. I think even hoping for the same level of performance out of Baez is asking alot.

[clout]

mvptommy: Are you saying Moyer had a worse season last year than Lidge?

Interesting.

[mvptommyd]

clout: No. Absolutely not. But what I AM saying is that Lidge will more then likely have a better year this seaosn than Moyer.

[PHIinBK]

I don't understand why you'd shrug off the Castro signing b/c "he won't play that much." If the guy could play he could get 4-10 ABs a week in relief of Rollins, Utley, or Howard - especially in the dog days of the season.

There HAS to be a RH infielder out there that can manage a .260/.315/.380 - which sucks but is a huge improvement over what they acquired.

[denny b.]

I hear Steve Jeltz is publicly admitting today he wishes he would have used steroids.

I don't thinks its possible for the bench to be worse then it was in 09', so ANY of those additions almost HAVE to be better then the Stairs/Bako/Bruntlett trio of lameness.

[euphronius]

Baez sucks and is overpaid. They could have kept Condrey and got similar performance.

I understand Chan Ho wants to start so I guess he was not a fit here.

[doubleh]

From the "no-duh" story department comes McGwire's admittance to using steroids:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4816607

I, for one, am beyond shocked!

[euphronius]

Doing steroids means taking tremendous legal, professional, and health risks in order to benefit your team and help them win. Doing steroids is quintessence of being a team player.

[Gsl]

Tommy,

Stop feeding the troll.

[GBrettfan]

Ditto to Chris in VT on the Halladay upgrade reasoning.

I also think Baez is not an upgrade to Chopper

[MG]

This is a tougher call than some of the other polls because I don't see an obvious candidate although it is likely that there are a couple of upgrades here. Hell, even Castro might be an upgrade just because Bruntlett was so terrible last year with the bat.

My nod was for Polanco but it is easy to see Polanco not being much of an upgrade at all if he only hits .270-.275. All depends on whether or not Polanco hits .300 or so.

[MG]

euphronius - I completely agree that I would rather see the Phils stuck with Moyer than with Lidge. Moyer's contract is over this year with no buyout option next year.

The Phils are on the hook for at least another $24.5M to Lidge and I really don't know what he will give the Phils this year and next. My bet is the Phils don't honestly know either. It has been all quiet on the Lidge-front except that blurb last week that he likely wasn't going to be ready for Opening Day.

People better like Baez because my bet is that he will be your 2010 Opening Day closer for this team (at least until Lidge comes back).

[NEPP]

I wonder if this makes Big Mac's Hall vote go up or down next year?

[PHIinBK]

denny b: it can be possible to have a worse bench and its certainly possible to have just as bad a bench.

I see this year's bench as having similar talent to last year's version. Castro and bruntlett both suck something awful, Gload was useless situationally last year (.186 RISP, .083 RISP 2 outs, .246 w/ men on) and Schneider can't hit a lick (.218/.292/.335).

Better hope Ben Francisco and Dobbs max out their numbers b/c i can't see putting much trust in the other guys.

[mvptommyd]

MG: I have 2 questions for you.

1.) Did you know Lidge was hurt all of the 2009 season thus explaining his brutal year?

2.) Who would you rather have as the closer if Lidge weren't here (obviously be realistic)?

[MG]

NEPP - Up is my bet but it won't be nearly enough to get him in the HOF next year. He is the kind of guy that likely will have to wait a long time and probably be put in by the Veteran's Comittee at some point because people are always going to wonder if his insane number in his mid-30s were largely due to HGH/steroids.

[NEPP]

He doesn't deserve to make it in. He's not a HOF level player. If he's telling the truth now and he started taking steroids/HGH in the mid 90s to recover from injury then everything from 95 on is wipe off...that leaves him at 238 HRs and a career .869 OPS.

Hardly a HOF career.

[clout]

mvptommy: As I recall Lidge was hurt in 2008 too. Although maybe I'm slow on the uptake Is it that whenever Lidge has a bad year it's because he's hurt and when he has a good year it's because he's healthy?

It's not possible that he had a bad year because he just sucked, right?

[mvptommyd]

He is full of BS. I don't believe one word he said. He doesn't deserve to make it in. And then he has he nerve to blame it "on the era" instead of blame himself. He is a disgrace.

[mvptommyd]

In other News:

Harry Kalas' widow, Phillies in dispute over Harry the K's restaurant at Citizens Bank Park.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillygossip/Harry_Kalas_widow_Phillies_in_dispute_over_Harry_the_Ks_restaurant_at_Citizens_Bank_Park.html

[mvptommyd]

clout: Maybe. But if you review the tape of his 2008 season vs. 2009 season like I did. You will see that his leg movement toward the plate is different. In 2008 his leg makes a full extension towards the plate and in 2009 his leg does not extend all the way. I am not a doctor but I suppose it is due to pain in his knee.

Also, if you watch him throw his slider, when his knee doesn't extend his arm movement and delievery is different as well.

I conclude that since his leg and arm motions are different, it has a result on his pitching, no???

And if not. Interesting.

[clout]

Also, was Feliz a Gold Glove fielder last year? Does anyone besides Jack think that? I thought his range was below average, although his arm and sure-handedness on balls he got to were above average.

Yet there is the assumption here that Polanco can't possibly be better on defense than Feliz. Why is that? I know some here think 3B is the most important defensive position on the field, but do they also think it's a tougher position than 2B?

Surely there's no one that stupid posting here.

[mvptommyd]

Clout: I said that Feliz's arm and surehandedness were slightly better. True or no?

[clout]

mvptommy: Bad mechanics have a definite impact on the result. Are bad mechancis only caused by injury?

[mvptommyd]

"Bad mechanics have a definite impact on the result. Are bad mechancis only caused by injury?"

Well, if he can't fully extend the exact knee that was injured and you can clearly see it on film then yes that is the reason.

BUT to your question of can bad mechanics only be caused by injury, then obviously the answer is "no". Pitchers can develop bad mechanics all the time.

[GBrettfan]

Humor for the day, courtesy of "The Onion"

Resigned Jason Bay: "Well, I'm A Met Now" January 9, 2010 | Issue 46•01 | Onion Sports

NEW YORK—At an introductory press conference at Citi Field Tuesday, Jason Bay donned a blue and orange hat, sighed deeply, and announced that he was, indeed, a New York Met. "Well, here we are," Bay seemed to say to himself while tightly gripping the lectern and slowly shaking his head. "I guess I'm a Met now. A New York Met. I was on the Red Sox for the past couple of years, they offered me $60 million to stay, but instead here I am with the Mets. Not exactly sure how that happened, but yeah, I'm thrilled to be here. Just thrilled." Bay became more animated when musing aloud about the possibility of a trade, but fell quiet once he realized that possibility wasn't very realistic.

[clout]

mvptommy: Well, Polanco did win a Gold Glove at 2B. And he has made fewer errors than Feliz in each of the past 3 years. And his range is obviously better. So that leaves his arm. Since we haven't seen it yet from 3B, it is possible that Feliz's arm is better.

[Spitz]

I would argue that 4 of the 6 replacements are certainly upgrades (Halladay, Scheider, Gload, Polanco), 1 is a wash (Castro), and 1 is a downgrade (Baez). If this is true, it was a pretty damn good offseason for the front office. Even small upgrades could mean that we win games 6 and 7 in the WS next year.

[kart racer]

I think at this point Feliz only has a better arm than Polanco. Polanco has him beat in range, and they are probably even on glove.

Watch and see though, maybe Polanco misjudges a few balls being at 3rd. I'm still confident he will be an upgrade all around though.

[NEPP]

I don't know about gold gloves but Feliz had two gold boots...at least that's what it looked like when he tried to run.

[NEPP]

Even if Lidge becomes an average closer instead of the atrocity he was last year, we likely win 5-6 more games in 2010.

[Andy]

{Hamels walks into the training room where Halladay is wearing a puzzled expression.}

Doc - Hey, Cole?

Cole - Yeah, Doc. What's up?

Doc - I been wonderin about that other new guy...the third baseman.

Cole - Aw...he's not a problem. He's not like a gold-glover or anything but he'll be okay.

Doc - Naaahh. Not that...

Cole - What's up then?

Doc - It's just that...well...every time he sees me he, like, gets a big grin and kinda chuckles....Is he okay?

Cole - Oh that. He's fine.

Doc - What's up then?

Cole - He just found out that the beerleaguer conventional wisdom is that he's more important to our season this year than you are.

Doc - Yikes!

Cole - I know.

Doc - It does explain one other thing though.

Cole - What's that?

Doc - You know: how he got such a big head.

[Alby]

Cole Hamels for Gavin Floyd straight up? Interesting proposal. I wonder if the Chisox would take it.

Before you laugh, look at the contracts -- Floyd signed last off-season for 4/$15.5 million. His salaries the next four years, if the team exercises its '13 option, are 10:$2.75M, 11:$5M, 12:$7M, 13:$9.5M. That's just over $24M for 4 years.

Hamels has two years left, at $6.65M and $9.5M, total $16.12M. In other words, you get two extra years of Floyd for only about $8M more. If you're a GM, that counts for a good bit, even if Floyd is more like a #3 on a good team.

Floyd wasn't as bad last year as you might think, despite the drop in wins and an 0.75 gain in ERA. His peripherals actually improved from his big '08 season: his 7.6 K/9 almost matched Hamels' 7.8, and his 1.228 WHIP beat Hamels' 1.286. Most people think he fell to Earth, but his ERA+ only fell from 119 to 114.

Given all that, I doubt the White Sox make the trade.

[Brett]

I hope the mets don't sign Joel Pineiro. I know some may say his 2009 isn't likely repeatable, but he has dominated the Phils his entire career. Dominated. Who knows, his bottom may fall out and they'll be stuck with another Perez type signing.

[clout]

Alby: That was my reaction exactly. The White Sox would not make that trade.

[thephaithful]

and they probably wont win a world series either.

[aksmith]

Since we're partially discussing Lidge here, I'd like to address something that was said in an earlier thread and is thrown around all the time.

"Saves don't mean anything." Variations are numerous. "Saves are a meaningless or useless stat." Etc.

Saves, indeed, often don't mean much. But "Blown Saves" are a very useful stat. Saves don't mean much when you get one. All they mean is you gave up anywhere from from 0-2 runs in an inning, for the most part. And we can all agree that's pretty much expected of any pitcher brought in for one inning. But they do mean something when you blow them. Because blowing them means you didn't reach the very mediocre benchmark of not allowing 1-3 runs in an inning.

To blow a lot of saves means you flat out stunk. In Lidge's case last year, it was nearly historically awful. So, let's correct the "saves are a meaningless stat" idea to "saves are a relatively meaningless stat, but blown saves are highly meaningful, especially the more of them you have."

[MG]

Alby - I don't know if Floyd's ceiling is as high as Hamels but it would be very interesting to see how Floyd would do in the NL.

Floyd likely won't go down like Ferguson Jenkins trade did but all the Phils did get for a guy who will likely be a very solid starter for the White Sox for several years was a 1 win, a ton of sweat, and a guy who didn't seem that enthusiastic to be here in the 1st place.

[Brian G]

clout/alby: Yes, the White Sox would absolutely make that trade. Hamels is only signed for 2 more years but he's under team control for 3 years altogether. And last year was Floyd's best by far if you go by peripherals, and even with that he was only equal to Hamels, who has a solid edge in innings per start in the last few years to go along with the better performance.

Hamels has a track record of consistent success that blows Floyd's away.

[NEPP]

I'm glad you guys aren't in charge. The WhiteSox would make that trade in a heartbeat.

And Rube should be fired if he ever made a trade like that.

[mvptommyd]

NEPP: I believe for the most part those of us comparing Floyd to Hamels and discussing trade the two straight up were going on the account of them being same money wise. Just comparing them skill wise.

Because the troll "euphoria" was saying he would take Moyer over Lidge this season because he thinks that Lidge stinks and Moyer could bring more to the table. And to prove his point he brought up both of their 2009 WAR numbers.

In response I compared Floyd and Hamels' WAR numbers for 2009. Floyd's was better than Hamels'. But overall I would take Hamels over Floyd. AGAIN, take the money out of it.

[mvptommyd]

"To blow a lot of saves means you flat out stunk. In Lidge's case last year, it was nearly historically awful. So, let's correct the "saves are a meaningless stat" idea to "saves are a relatively meaningless stat, but blown saves are highly meaningful, especially the more of them you have.""

I disagree. As we have discussed before both "saves" AND "blown saves" can be overrated. To prove that point, the following number are blown saves by Madson and Lidge in 2009.

Lidge: 11 blown saves
Madson: 8 blown saves

So according to you, if blown saves are "highley meaningful" then Madson had almost as bad a season as Lidge.

That isn't true, is it?

[clout]

Brian G: Your line of thinking, that Hamels has been more consistent than Floyd, ignores a gigantic fact that subverts your conclusion: It took Floyd a bit longer to figure things out (partly due to injury). Once he did, in 2008, his numbers have been very consistent.

I'm not trying to make the case that Floyd will be better than Hamels going forward. I don't think he will. But I think he'll be close. And when you weigh the contract differences, which hugely favor Floyd as Alby noted, then the trade becomes pretty stupid from Chicago's view. They wouldn't make that trade.

[euphronius]

Some numbers for Polanco:

The last time he played significant time at 3b in 2002. He played 131 games in 2002 at 3b. His UZR was 7.0. His UZR at 2b in 2009 was 11.4

Feliz’s UZR in 2009 was 5.3, down from a high of 20.8 in 2007.

So there is a real possibility Polanco could be as good as Feliz was last year, but he will not ever be as good as Feliz was at his peak.

But even so, we are talking the difference of a handful of runs over the year, so I don’t think it will be a big thing on defense.

On offense: Feliz’s OPS the past 3 years were 2009: 694 2008: 705 and 2007: 708
Polanco for the same three years was 727, 768, 846.

So obviously Polanco is declining but should be better than Feliz offensively.

If you want to look at WARs:
Polanco 2009: 3.1 2008: 3.0 2007 5.2
Feliz 1.3, 1.5, 2.8

Different positions though.

We were talking about moyer and lidge in teh context of their contracts.

B

[euphronius]

Also, I guess we can assume that better lineup + better ballpark means Polanco's OBS will be better this year than last, but you cannot discount Age.

[clout]

Feliz has barely averaged .700 OPS over the past 3 years, which is extremely poor for an everyday player and places him in the bottom 10% of all players who had enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. If you look at just thirdbase, he ranked dead last or next to last in each of the past 3 years.

Since 2000, when Polanco first got more than 300 PAs, he has been below .700 OPS only once. His career OPS is .761.

[mvptommyd]

clout: Ok, ok. You are making me like this Polanco-Feliz move more and more with your analysis.

Like I said, I am just cocnerned with Feliz's arm and surehandedness over Polanco. But you stated not to worry too much about that, so I am actually going to take your word on that.

[dlhunter]

Let's be honest here.

In pure relative terms, Juan Castro will be the biggest upgrade over his predecessor.

[dlhunter]

/Joke.

If anything, Beardo's beardo puts him a head (and neck) above Juan.

[euphronius]

"In pure relative terms, Juan Castro will be the biggest upgrade over his predecessor."

He isn't though. He plays worse defense and hit about the same (when you look at the past 3 years).

[euphronius]

Good thing about Polanco though is you can rest Utley by playing Dobbs at 3rd and Polanco at 2nd.

[aksmith]

Tommy - Yes, Madson as a closer was every bit as bad as Lidge and quite possibly worse.

He was awful in save situations at the end of games. I haven't even looked at the numbers, but his blown saves in the closer role were likely just as high a percentage as Lidge's or worse.

As a setup guy, he is much better and his percentage of blown saves to holds had to be much lower.

Guys who pitch the last inning are different than guys who pitch the next to last inning. And they get paid more to do it because they are the court of last resort. It's certainly not a physical difference. But it is very clearly a psychological difference.

As a closer, Madson is a dog. As a set up guy, he's terrific. So, your answer is that he was no better than Lidge as a closer. He was awful. And he was a very good set up guy, once again.

[NEPP]

So, we're gonna ignore that Hamels is typically good for an ERA+ of around 130-140 while Floyd is a 110-120 guy?

That's a significant jump.

[NEPP]

****Good thing about Polanco though is you can rest Utley by playing Dobbs at 3rd and Polanco at 2nd.****

Except for, knowing UC, Utley won't be rested on the sunday daygame after nightgame of a series against the Nats in Mid June when we've already taken the first 2. He'll play him into the ground again. Hopefully, Utley actually gets some solid rest this year so he's not burnt out by mid-August.

[Bubba]

NEPP- Dobbs is in a key situation for a bench player in that Charlie is way more likely to make the Polanco- Utley move if Dobbs is hitting more like 2 years ago than last year.
In addition we need someone off the bench who can PH .

[MG]

Hamels has pitched better than Floyd so far in his career. There's no arguing that really. However, Floyd has gradually improved since mid-2008 while Hamels struggled a bit last year especially in the 1st half and in the playoffs.

It is going to be interesting to see this season though if Hamels rebounds a bit and if Floyd can continue to improve.

My bet is that if Floyd played in the NL with a team with decent defense that his numbers wouldn't be that far off from what Hamels give the Phils this year.

[Andy]

hunter:
I'm not sure who has the better beardo...
Bruntlett or Castro.

But Castro has the better smoke.

[Andy]

Bubba - presumably, Gload can ph.

[Andy]

in re: the meaninglessness (meaningfulness?) of Saves and Blown Saves

It's important to factor in the concept that a reliever can get a blown save messing up the 6th, 7th, or 8th, and frequently gets one while not technically being the closer. OTOH, all relievers are expected to "hold" a lead, as well as keep a team close in a close game.

I'm not sure the degree to which BS is a much better stat than S.

[MG]

Lidge stunk any way you slice it last year. Historically bad. Yet he deserved to get a pass for what he did in '08 and largely did. This year all bets are off.

Amaro made a huge gamble on investing a ton of money on Lidge when he resigned him during the middle of '08. Because of that investment, the Phils don't have any kind of money to really invest in another high-priced bullpen option.

There is probably more pressure on Hamels to rebound because of his poor playoff performance & way the season ended but Lidge is probably 1A on the list of players the Phils desperately need to come through with an adequate season to reach the postseason again for the 4th year in a row.

[euphronius]

MG- that is exactly my thinking on the issue as well.

I bet the Phillies want that Floyd trade back, huh?

He would look good in the rotation right now.

The ChiSox could have a great rotation this year if Peavy is healthy.

[euphronius]

"Lidge is probably 1A on the list of players the Phils desperately need to come through with an adequate season to reach the postseason again for the 4th year in a row. "

I don't know. He stunk last year and the coasted to the playoffs.

the difference between average lidge and bad lidge is like 1 or 2 wins.

[MaxMax33]

Of course the Phils would take the Floyd trade back, but not because Flody has turned out to be a decent pitcher, but simply because that was a horrible trade given the health and production they received from Garcia.

I'm not sure Floyd would or would not have developed into a compentent starter in Philly. I tend to think, without any emperical evidence, that a change of scenario is often very good for MLB players, especially young ones. Floyd's issues, to me, were in his head and approach, rather than ability. I'm don't know if there is any way to convince ourselves that he would have turned into a good pitcher at the major league level as a Phillie.

[euphronius]

*** I tend to think, without any emperical evidence, that a change of scenario is often very good for MLB players, especially young ones. ***

yeah I have that gut feeling too.

Tough to prove.

[NEPP]

Floyd's also a year older than Hamels.

[euphronius]

Of course Floyd was "bad" in Chicago too, after scene change.