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« Beer nuts: Mets stuff; bottom-of-the-barrel news | Main | Holiday weekend wrap: Bozied and Baez discussed »

Friday, January 01, 2010

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Happy New Year!

We signed a guy named Tagg Bozied too.

(via MLBTRADERUMORS: The Phillies signed Tagg Bozied today, MLBTR has learned. Bozied, 30, hit .288/.360/.447 in 240 plate appearances for the Pirates' Triple A club this year after starting the year in Taiwan. He mainly played first base and the outfield corners. Bozied hit .306/.382/.569 for the Marlins' Triple A club in '08.

Bozied was a big-time power prospect in the Padres system several years ago, but he ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee in July of '04 jumping on home plate to celebrate a game-winning grand slam.)

Poised once again to dominate the League. Happy New Year. Remember, these are the good times.

They once used that tough tendon to repair my ACL. Must have been some celebration at home. Tagg Bozied. Two verbs.

Danys & Tagg, eh? The Phils must have a scout assigned to guys with unusual names. Looks like his work is paying off.

The always dishonest mikes77 tried to make Park look worse than Baez in the last thread, but Baez isn't being brought in as a starter. He's replacing Park's relief innings. Thus the honest comparison is this:

Park 50 IP, 1.18 WHIP, .576 OPS, 2.52 ERA
Baez 72 IP, 1.13 WHIP, .634 OPS, 4.02 ERA

Also worth noting: Baez's BABIP was an unusally low .232. Some of this is because he's an extreme groundball pitcher, but it's a number he's unlikely to duplicate (his career BABIP is .275).

clout: You're right, .232 is a hard number to replicate, but I'd imagine that with the Phils defense, the team's BABIP against tends to be lower than average. I wonder if I can find that somewhere.

I'd imagine Baez's BABIP will go up, but hopefully that's countered by an improvement in control one more year removed from surgery.

Just read an ATL newspaper interview with chipper jones. Most times when I read interviews of opposing players I end up liking them more. Not the case with Chipper. Something about that guy bothers me.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/chipper-jones-confident-of-263618.html

CJ: That's why I liked the signing although Baez is far from my first choice for bullpen help. The second year back from TJ surgery is almost always a better year.

clout: Do you think they'll sign another veteran? MG and I were discussing this and figure they may not sign any more relievers to Major League deals.

can't wait to see buck commander 3 starring chipper jones

"...Buck Commander 3 [his hunting group's latest video production] is coming along really well. Everybody came in for the hunt [in Texas in December], all the Buck Commander guys, [country singers] Luke Bryan and Jason Aldean. Everybody had a great time, and everybody got a deer. First time we all harvested [shot deer]. Buck Commander 3 is going to be off the charts."

chipper does come off as a bit of a douche...

CJ: I think it's possible depending on what's left as we get to spring training. If Eyre, for example, is still out there and willing to do a reasonable deal, I could see them bringing him back.

I never really liked the idea of a designated hitter but it would seem a logical move for the NL to adopt it.

Stocking the bullpen seems like a perpetual problem and would be a lot less complicated if the DH were adopted throughout baseball.

Am I looking at this correctly or not?

limoguy: no. The DH is a perversion of natural law.

"The always dishonest mikes77"

clout, I don't think mikey is always dishonest.

I just think he doesn't have the analytical skills to to look past the raw numbers and try to make sense out of them.

Sure, he took a cursory look at the numbers for Baez and Park, and thinking he had found some sort of pot of gold, he posted them.

It probably never occured to him to separate the RP numberrs from the SP numbers.

awh, glad to see it's a new year and you continue to be the most juvenile poster on the board.

Call him Larry.

I dont see us signing other veterans...we'll get a good handful of ST invites along the level of Marcus Giles last year but I think Rube's done.

And way too early. We're gonna be pissed when we see how cheap some legit guys go for in the next couple months.

Shot in the dark: I think Rube will lock up Vic on a 3 year deal in the next couple months...

I guarantee he doesn't want to go to Arbitration with him (as it could be costly) and Rube loves to give out contracts like that. Something like 3 years, $18-21 million might do it.

An equal shot in the dark, but I don't believe that the Phillies will make a very strong offer to keep Victorino when he reaches free agency. They have too many potential replacements that may be ready when the time comes.

I do, however, think they'll make a significant offer to Werth.

I don't see it. Unless he takes a very team friendly deal, I don't see Werth staying around.

They don't have the payroll room to give him a $15-17 million deal.

mikey, I was defending your honesty and integrity. How is that juvenile? You wouldn't purposely post dishonest numbers as clout implied, would you?

"They (phillies) don't have the payroll room to give him a $15-17 million deal."

Nobodyelse has the payroll room to give Jason Werth that much either... except the Yankees.

NEPP, I agree. They probably don't have the payroll room to extend Werth.

****Nobodyelse has the payroll room to give Jason Werth that much either... except the Yankees.****

Well, there are other teams that don't have the massive payroll commitments we have that would want a great corner OF...all the same people going after Bay and Holliday would take him. The Yankees would want him, the BoSox could sign him (as Ortiz will be gone and they could move Drew to DH), the Angels, Mariners, etc could all go after him. We will have trouble because of the $111 million already committed to 10 other players.

Zolecki has 10 Phils questions up on MLB.com.

out of curiosity, will domonic brown be starting the year in reading or allentown?

drake: I'd start him at LV. He handled Reading pretty well last year.

Maybe Rube should deal Werth now since he wants more years and money so we can "replenish the farm system."

The Reading Phillies outfield should very interesting to follow next year. Domonic Brown in RF, Tyson Gillies in CF and Sudsdorf in LF. I think the Hardball times has Brown and Gillies as the top 2 prospects.

I don't think Susdorf is a prospect, and like clout, I don't think Brown will spend all that much time in Reading.

His defensive kinks can be worked out booting the ball in Allentown just as easy as Reading and LaMar has shown a propencity (sp?) to be aggressive...

Why would Domonic Brown be placed in LV? He spent about 1 month in AA in 2009. Makes no sense whatsoever.

Clever, Len

mikes77: Well, it makes sense if you want to challenge him. Brown had an .801 OPS in 162 PAs at Reading last season, which suggests his bat is ready for Trip A. I haven't heard any complaints about his glove and at age 22 he's age-appropriate for Triple A.

Can you make a sensible baseball argument for why he shouldn't go to LV?

Clout - long time - hope the new year is treating you well. I don't know about a "sensible" baseball argument, but a philosophical one could be made.

If the Phils are hoping for a 2011 arrival for Brown (personally I think 2012 is a bit more likely on our club) - they may want Brown to start the year in AA and rake for the first month or so of the season before sending him up to AAA.

Only to guard against a slow-start and a possible blow to the kids ego/confidence. I would be o.k. with the first month of the season at Reading - but not much more than that.

Happy New Year all.

Since when is an .801 OPS in 162 plate appearances enough to show at AA?
I could understand your thinking if he had ripped apart the league for a 1.100 OPS, in so few ABs. Then followed that up by hitting in the Arizona Fall league. He did'nt do either.
By all acounts, he takes bad routes in the outfield. And that was proved in the televised AFL game. He took 2 horrible routes to fly balls in that game alone. Sickels said he should be left in AA until July, no matter what does early in 2010.

muchacho: Susdorf isn't much of a prospect. He spent most of last season at Clearwater at age 23, which is positively ancient for the FSL. In 88 PAs for Reading he hit .221. He was a 19th round pick out of Fresno State in 2008 and he's got a little Jeremy Slayden in him, although Slayden had more power and walked way more. Slayden was also an even worse fielder.

If Susdorf can repeat his Clearwater #s and bump up his walk rate at Reading this year he might crack BA's Top 30 Phils prospects list in 2011. I think he's a longshot because he's not much on defense, lacks power required for a corner OF and his low walk rate suggests bat troubles await him at higher levels.

mikes77: I think 162 PAs is enough to show that it's appropriate to test him at a higher level, especially in the context of the past 2 years. He's hit well at 4 levels now so it wasn't a fluke.

I think he can be coached on defense just as easily at LV and test his bat. As I said, I'd start him there, but if he does start at Reading he will almost certainly be moved up within a couple months if he hits like he did last year.

Brown in 2010: 1/2 year at Reading, 1/2 year at Lehigh.

Susdorf is that org filler guy that might get a cup of coffee in a couple years if we have some significant injuries and/or he sticks around as a minor-leaguer. He's not a prospect.

yea, Susdorf is like Slayden redux in many ways in my eyes. Saw him a few times in Reading last year and the comparison is more 'on' than 'off.'

And mikes, like clout just said, Brown may start the year in Reading (as he prob should), but I don't think he'll be there long.

And his AFL numbers, to me anyway, are a product of exhaustion than an indication of anything else. He started off there like gangbusters, if you remember.

and since we're talking pharm...who would win in a battle to the death between Tagg Bozied and Andy Tracy?

The winner may be manning first base in Allentown this summer...

clout you have'nt given a 'sensible baseball argument' for why Brown should be promoted to AAA for the start of the season. Your argument is basically, 'I think they should challenge the kid'. That's not a sensible baseball argument. Brown has'nt done enough at AA to warrant promotion to AAA. What's more, the Phillies have no need to rush him to AAA. They're big club is filled with professional, LH hitting, outfielders.

BTW, the Phillies gave Michael Taylor 363 plate appearances with a .977 OPS, before they promoted him to AAA... and he was a year older than what Domonic Brown will be this year.

Brown won't be promoted to AAA to start the season, nor should he be promoted. If he is lucky, he will go to AAA after the draft. Your wrong.

mikes77: There is a school of thought in baseball that you should challenge prospects. Push them, don't make it too easy. Dom Brown has breezed through 4 levels offensively. This view is not something I invented.

If they put him at Reading and he picks up where he left last year I think they'll move him up to LV "within a couple months" as I wrote in the post above. A couple of months would bring us to June. The draft is in June. You wrote "If he is lucky, he will go to AAA after the draft."

So I guess in your view I'm saying that he'll be lucky. Whether I'm wrong or not remains to be seen. BTW, it's "you're" not "your."

"I'd start him at LV. He handled Reading pretty well last year."
"Can you make a sensible baseball argument for why he shouldn't go to LV?"

Dont change your argument to 'He will play in Reading for a couple of months'. If you would have said that in the first place, I would not have had to waste my time in this exchange.

clout, just say you were talking out your 'you know what' and move on.

mikes77: I think you're confused, which is understandable given your intelligence level.

I said originally that I would start him at LV. I did not predict the Phillies would do that. I said I would do that. Go back and look.

I later said that if the Phillies did start him at Reading, he'd probably be moved up within a couple months because he did well at that level last season.

That is not a change in my opinion.

I did ask you to provide a sensible baseball argument for why he shouldn't start at LV and all I got from you was that he takes bad routes on fly balls.

Pretty weak argument, no?

****and since we're talking pharm...who would win in a battle to the death between Tagg Bozied and Andy Tracy?****

Doesn't Lehigh use the DH? They'll probably just use one at 1B and one as DH.

ah, NEPP...always one step ahead of me

My reaction is that the Phillies will keep Victorino but lose Werth.I think that Victorino would accept a 3 year deal, whereas Werth will not. The Phillies still have some legit prospects in the high minors (Brown, Gose) and a 5 year deal for Werth might not be economically justified, especially if they make a real effort to retain Howard after 2011. These are just my opinions and I have no direct knowledhe to the situation to back it up.

I wish that Baez could be addition to the pen instead of a replacement for Park. That both Romero and Lidge might not be able to start the season concerns me and having both Park and Baez might be enough to get them through the first 6 weeks.

Happy New Year to all.

I still have a feeling Scotty Eyre comes back...

Park in addition to Baez and Durbin? How much does everyone want the Phillies to spend on middle relievers?

Under normal circumstances, Park, Baez and Durbin would be overkill. But these aren't normal circumstances. With the uncertainty over Lidge and JC, I would rather be safe than sorry. One of the 3 could fill the closer spot while Lidge gets himself ready.

The argument could be made (and perhaps it involves a great deal of wishful thinking) that Mathieson, Bastardo, Escalona, Herndon can bridge that gap until the bullpen is 100% healthy.

They had Romero for how many games last year? 50 maybe?

Trying to recap who's now on the team now. If we've signed Baez, that means right now we have:
Closer: Brad Lidge
Right-handed setup: Ryan Madsen
Left-handed setup: J.C. Romero
Right handed middle relief: Danys Baez, Chad Durbin
Left handed middle relief (LOOGY): ? Bastardo ?
Rotation: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer/Kyle Kendrick/Andrew Carpenter
Starting 8: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Placido Polanco (3B), Chase Utley (2B), Ryan Howard (1B), Jayson Werth (RF), Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF), Carlos Ruiz (C)
Bench: Brian Schnieder (C), Juan Castro (INF), Ben Francisco (OF), Greg Dobbs (LF/3B/1B)

That's 23 spots. I assume they'll carry a 5th bench player (probably another outfielder like Mayberry) and whomever loses the 5th starter battle (I don't know who else will compete for the spot after Kendrick and Moyer I was throwing out names). Seems pretty nice to have all those roster spots settled. Obviously the bullpen is a problem, as once again everything hangs on Brad Lidge. If he returns to his career norms (3.56 ERA, WHIP 1.27, K/BB 2.98, K/9 12.15) from last year's dreadful numbers (ERA 7.21, WHIP 1.81, K/BB 1.79, K/9 9.36) we'll be fine. But I don't know how big an if that is.

Mathieson and Bastardo are the wild cards; If they come through, the bullpen will be fine. Herndon would have to be dominant during sporing training to make the team. I just don't think Kendrick has major league stuff. Unless he's hitting his spots, he's batting live batting practice.

Godfather---You are leaving out Ross Gload from your bench spots.

"With the uncertainty over Lidge... rather be safe than sorry. One of (Park, Baez Durbin)could fill the closer spot while Lidge gets himself ready."

That's what Baez is for. Park is'nt a closer and neither is Durbin. All this hand ringing over middle relief is comical. If Lidge does'nt come back, guys like McDougal are'nt going to help. They would have to make a trade to get a real back-end guy anyway.

The Phillies lost Park's 50 innings, Condrey's 42 inninings and Eyre's 30 innings. Condrey and Eyre can easily be replaced by internal options. Neither one is, or was, a great reliever. Bastardo will get Eyre's spot. Mathieson, Kendrick and Herndon will battle it out for Condrey's sooo important, mop-up spot.

Stop overstating those guy's contributions. (Especially Eyre and Condrey's 72 innings combined) The bullpen is not in bad shape due to those 3 guys departure, its in bad shape because it's hard to count on Lidge bouncing back and putting everyone in the proper role.

AH! New I forgot someone. That's one reason I posted that list. Bench is actually Schneider (C), Castro (INF), Francisco (RF), Dobbs (LF/3B/1B), Gload (OF/3B/1B).

Bullpen's going to come down to Lidge, again. If he's good, that bullpen suddenly becomes very strong between Lidge, Madsen, Romero, even Baez, who seems to be a decent reliever, and Durbin. The wild card is who the LOOGY is going to be.

mikes77: It's not is'nt. It's not did'nt. It's not are'nt. The apostrophe takes the place of the letter "o" in the contraction, which you would probably know if you completed first grade.

Thank you.

Yo, newer thread

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