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Monday, January 11, 2010

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I don't see how it can be anyone other than Lidge. Dude hit rock bottom last season, he can't get worse.

Brad Lidge. Last year's statistics are the worst for any full time reliever by far. A return to even career norms would be night and day.

It would also, barring injury, practically ensure the NL East crown for a 4th straight year.

Per MLBTraderumors:

Giants sign 33 year-old Aubrey Huff to a 1 yr/$3 million deal.

Really? Seriously? For a guy that hit just hit .241/.310/.384 in 2009?

This one is a head scratcher. They have Travis Ishikawa who is 26 years old, hits better and plays better defense. Yet the Giants STILL sign Huff to a $3 million deal.

Seems that $3 million could have been stretched towards other needs and players in the same position.

I voted for Hamels.

The thinking here is that he was mostly unlucky in 2009. His numbers from 2008 to 2009 were about the same (if not better in some cases), yet he didn't get the results. I'm not buying all the BS about his "mental toughness", so I look for him to be dominate this year.

Huff's got homerun power. That's what the lineup desperately needs behind Kung Fu Panda. Yet they didn't make a run at the two players who would fill such a need, Holliday and Bay (probably because they don't have the budget to fill all their other holes). So you get a "value village" signing of a player who likely won't produce his career statline in that park. He'll be better than the .694 OPS, but probably not the .812 OPS he's produced for his career, especially since he's spent time in 2 hitters parks, TB and BAL.

It's a stopgap and it won't help much. They've got DeRosa, The Panda, Ishikawa, and Huff now to play 1B and 3B, though Huff's probably more of a defensive liability than Sandoval. Betcha DeRosa's going to spend a lot of time in the left field this year.

The answer to this question I think is Brad Lidge no question.

Jimmy I am sure will imoprove his average back to around .280ish next season. In other categories Jimmy actually was better than 2008 such as runs, hits, doubles and HR's. We are basically expecting him to cut down his strikeouts and get on base a little more next season.

Cole Hamels as we have discussed and beat to death will most likely have a bounce back year next year due to his innings pitched situation alone. Cole's 2009 seasonw as pretty much exactly like 2008 numbers wise except his gave up 2.0 H/9. Those extra hits along with pitching 36 less innings than in 2008 made a huge difference to Cole in 2009. I expect Hamels to improve in 2010, but his improvement won't be the biggest out of the bunch eithier.

What can I say about Moyer? He is a huge question mark, literally. Will he even pitch again? Can he pitch like he did in 2008 at his age? With that being said, how can you vote the guy to be the biggest improvement in 2010 when as of now he can't throw.

Next option clout favorite,BLer Darling and the biggest running debate on BL to date Kendrick. Can he bounce back? Sure. Will he? I don't know. Let's see how his pitch developement comes along in the spring. I expect KK to be the Phillies #5 starter and also to do pretty well. But to call him the most improved player in 2010 will be a stretch.

Fianlly, my choice, is Brad Lidge. This guy just had a horrible 2009 by any standards. Between the blown saves, injuries, bad luck and getting waxed in big spots. This guy had surgery in the offseason and will be ready by May at the latest (according to Monty on 610 WIP about 2 weeks ago). I really believe he pitched hurt last season, as suggested by MLB Network's Mitch Williams. His mechanics were way off and he never looked comfortable in his delivery. I expect Lidge NOT to be 2008 Lidge, however I think 35-38 saves with an ERA of around 2.50-2.75 isn't out of the question.

I picked Kendrick since he's got nowhere to go but up. He was on the IronPigs for most of the season. I think he can stick with the big club as the #5 for the year.

And to those who say Lidge couldn't get any worse.. sure he could. He could continue to stink. We're hopeful he'll get it together, but who knows..

I don't see Jimmy drastically improving and become the leadoff hitter the Phills deserver.

I'm not convinced that Moyer will be in the rotation this year. Injury, surgery, another year. I think a younger arm can win the 5th spot from him.

Lidge could improve, but it's not going to be 2008 again. He'll get hit. He'll blow a handful of saves. But he'll also be on a short leash.

Kendrick has the potential to improve the most. It's just that he may not get the chance.

Hamels has a good chance to have a winning season this year. Which would be an improvment, but not quite as much as KK or Lidge could.

I picked Kendrick as well because I think he's now going to realize this is his last chance and he has a great opportunity to make a big impact either as a 5th starter (where he'll likely start out) or as a swing guy in the bullpen a la Chan Ho Park last year that the Phills really need.

Obviously Lidge can't get worse, and everyone expects him to be better because there's no other option.

I don't see Rollins putting up better numbers this year, and I think Moyer is going to be the same pitcher he has been- 6 innings and 5 runs on his good nights, 3 innings and 7 runs on his bad.

Hopefully all of the above players makes great strides!

Moyer-the last I read- is having another surgery today , so I hope he shows the most improvement from his status quo .

From the '09 season I think Lidge could & should be better .
KK was in the minors most of the year so '10 should be better than '09 for him as well.

Brad Lidge hands down. Hamels would be a distant second. Lidge had perhaps the worst year a closer ever had so he must improve over that. I agree that if he reverts to his career averages, that alone would be a tremendous improvement. If not, he is done.

Hamels was not nearly as bad as Lidge last year so there is less room for improvement. Here's to Halladay-Hamels being a more dynamic duo than the elusive Halladay-Lee.

Impossible. The single season blown save record is 14, held by Rollie Fingers (1976), Bruce Sutter (1978), Bob Stanley (1983), and Ron Davis (1984). Lidge was 3 short of the record.

He _CAN_ pitch worse.

"The single season blown save record is 14....He _CAN_ pitch worse."

Shane, since when is the "save" stat, the #1 indicator of a pitcher's(closer's) performance?

Saves are a "bad stat" when judging performance. Similiar to judging a pitcher on wins-losses. Look at Lidge's ERA for the #1 perfomance indicator with other categories other than saves being close second.

It is going to be hard for Lidge to have another 7.21 ERA season. Mostly due to the fact that his career ERA is a 3.56 (including last season).

Hamels wasn't even bad last year so I guess I don't understand the poll. I gues she could give up less HRs

Looking at his numbers, Hamels 2009 was similar to 2008 in terms of his skills stats. So I think he will have a similar 2010. I don't know what you would want him to do better? strike out 10 per 9? I don't know.

Moyer is literally a huge question mark?

Someone doesn't know the meaning of "literally"

To answer the Poll though, jimmy Rollins is the best candidate to have a better 2010 because he can improve his patience and pitch selection and keep that consistent over a whole year.

Kendrick and Moyer are probably done. Lidge will be a disaster again. Hamels will be excellent as always.

"Someone doesn't know the meaning of "literally""

Yup, TTI. He is probably walking around Rittenhouse Square now about to walk into Thomas Jefferson Hospital for another check-up/surgery wearing a question mark T-Shirt.

"Kendrick and Moyer are probably done. Lidge will be a disaster again"

C'mon. Are you baiting people out to debate and therefore create post counts. I am going to pretend you didn't make this post. Can I have some statistics to confirm this?

Kendrick does not have ML skill. I think the burden should be to prove he can pitch in the MLs.

Moyer is 47. I guess he could be a replacement level pitcher if he is healthy. But I mean I guess if you want to bet on a 47 year old who was bad last year go ahead. If he wasn't under contract he wouldn't be here.

Lidge is trending down in every important stat. He was incredibly lucky in 2008 and had one of the worst years ever in 2009. I don't see any positive stats for him. I suppose he can be lucky again. Stranger things have happened. I mean Ryan Franklin was saving games for awhile there.

Hey I mean sure Kendrick and Moyer could pitch at replacement level. But so can a bunch of other guys.

I'm taking Lidge due to the wide range of results that would be viewed as an improvement. I expect that he comes back healthier, he regains the upper hand on hitters with hte slider and keeps the ball in the ball park better (say, less than 1 HR per 9IP). Expect an ERA around 3.50 and that's a vast improvement. I also expect Hamels to be better. The rest, I don't necessarily see much improvement as likely though, I would love to see it.

mvp: "This one is a head scratcher. They have Travis Ishikawa who is 26 years old, hits better and plays better defense. Yet the Giants STILL sign Huff to a $3 million deal."

Yeah, its almost as if Brian Sabean is a bad GM or something.

Yeah the problems with Lidge's slider, which is still good obviously, is that he is now a one pitch pitcher. Because his fastball sucks.

He fast ball used to not suck.

He also does not hold runners on 1st base and can't throw the slider with runners on 3rd.

He also has health problems and I'd be amazed if he made it through the year as the "closer." They certainly can't go back into the playoffs and expect to succeed with him in a major spot.

Brad Lidge, by virtue of not being able to be any worse than he was last year...

I went with Hamels because I think he will rebound and have a season in the range of a 150 ERA+. That's far more valuable to us than Lidge bouncing back*.


*By the sole virtue of a healthy Hamels might pitch 230 innings while Lidge will be lucky to throw 1/3 that much.

Doing it the old-fashioned way

Not everyone pays attention to these numbers, of course. While teams such as the Mariners, Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, who improved greatly on defense in 2009, peruse and subscribe to these stats, some teams still just won't buy them -- literally or figuratively.

"I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are," says Charley Kerfeld, a former big league reliever who now serves as a special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.

"And since I've been here, we don't have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We're not a statistics-driven organization by any means.

"I'm not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us."

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100110&content_id=7897834

Honestly, what is a statistic anyway? Its not as if a statistic is somethings that provides measurment of a player's on field performance. Statistics are made up numbers that have no bearing on the outcome of a game.

"We're not a statistics-driven organization by any means."

Super.

The Phillies window for winning is closing faster than I thought.

Well, in the context of defensive statistics (UZR, TZ, etc), I'd personally rather have a long-time scouts opinion over the statistical metric...this despite the fanatics on Fangraphs and their devotion to UZR/WAR over actually watching a game.

I think that's the context of the statement.

The best stat is WS wins=4.

NEPP: Don't some of these new defensive statistics come from people "watching the game" though?

Yo, newer thread

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