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Friday, January 08, 2010

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To Kenny Powers!

I don't think I've ever been less upset with the departure of a long-time Phillie via free agency.

Unless he breaks out and goes 18-6 with a low 3s ERA with Houston, I won't miss him.

You'll miss him when we sign some geezer in his place.

I can't wait to watch the 2010 Phillies play the 2007 Phillies

And on the other hand, I consider letting him go to be a tactical error.

In my view, they needed either Chan Ho or Myers. They are getting neither. If we find out that Ed Wade did what he often does and overpaid him by a lot, then this will make more sense. But I think Myers did want to return to Philly and wouldn't have been an exorbitant signing if they'd done it early.

Myers for 3 -4 million as your fifth starter would be a major coup. Myers for 8 million for a year would more likely be a mistake. My guess is that Wade will pay him closer to the 8 because that's what Wade does.

But when the season inevitably drags on and Moyer is non-productive, and Happ gets arm fatigue and Kendrick is being discussed on BL as if he's the worst pitcher that ever existed, people are going to be watching Myers in Houston and likely watching him be at least a league average starter and feel better about themselves because a jerk and a dope left town.

Of course, none of them will know there are likely half a dozen jerkier jerks or dopier dopes employed by the Phillies at any one time, but they were better at keeping it out of the papers.

We'll miss him when Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ pitch. Err, no we won't

aksmith: You seem to be suggesting that many Beerleaguer posters react with emotion rather than logic, gut feelings rather than reality and ignorance rather than knowledge.

In other words, you have this blog pegged exactly.

Myers will get $5 million plus an option year.

Good for him.

And wow how the market for 2nd tier/league average pitchers is still inflated.

Of course, if a guy like Myers is going for $5 million, what will legit pitchers want? What is Pedro worth is Bretty gets $5 million?

Pedro is worth what someone will pay him. And so far, he seems to have been offered exactly what we've been offered. Nothing.

Realistically, which team has 5 mil laying around to offer to a major question mark at the end of his career? I'd love to see Philly pick him up again at the midpoint for 1 mil and incentives if he's needed. But anything more is simply flushing money on a guy who is not going to give you more than 25 healthy starts at the most.

I think the Roger Clemens partial season come out of retirement plan is the best way for Pedro to handle his last year or two in baseball.

****Realistically, which team has 5 mil laying around to offer to a major question mark at the end of his career?****

Apparently the Astros did.

****Endy Chavez is ahead of schedule rehabbing from a torn ACL and MCL, and his agent Peter Greenberg said they'd be willing to consider a minor league deal according to Larry Stone of The Seattle Times. Chavez will likely be "90 percent or so" in March, at which time he would hold a showcase for interested teams. ****

SIGN HIM NOW.

You can never have too much depth/minor league guys. He could be our 5th OF.

NEPP - Myers is 29 and after his physical, the Stros will have an opportunity to void the contract.

My guess is that with his hip fixed, you'll see a little more hop on the fastball and some downward movement on that split. And his curve has always been very good.

I think He has 4-5 more years left in him. You really don't? I get that you don't like him. And I'm not saying I'd want him for a drinking buddy because I wouldn't. But the guy should have some time left at a fairly high level. At least, higher than his last year and a half out of two.

Regardless of what people think of the Myer's non-signing, sports with out emotion or heroes and villains would be awful. If there were no jerks or good guys, regardless of whether or not the player are actually jerks, what kind of entertainment would it be? Gotta have some emotional involvement in there or it becomes a video game.

****My guess is that with his hip fixed, you'll see a little more hop on the fastball and some downward movement on that split. And his curve has always been very good. ****

We'll see. The hip is a convenient excuse.

He could have 5 years left or he could blow apart in that bandbox in Houston and be out of the game by 2011. Its not exactly like he's a high level player...he's been basically league average for his career now...as his ERA+ shows.

NEPP: Myers is at the end of his career?

Damn, you verified aksmith's view of dim bulb Beerleaguer posters faster than I thought possible.

gobaystars: Emotional involvement and intelligence/logic are not mutually exclusive.

If he's fully healthy and he returns to the 3-3.5 Win player he was at his peak (Ages 24-25), then he's a bargain. I don't really see it happening as he's never really struck me as the guy that kills himself in the gym, shows up early, etc.

However, he hasn't had that same velocity in a long time (well before the hip went bad)...and his fastball doesn't move much so he needs it to be mid 90s.

****NEPP: Myers is at the end of his career? ****

Well, he's had a couple off years in a row, is league average for his career, and is coming off a major hip surgery.

Lets just say he's got a big hill to climb. 2010 will be a huge year for him one way or the other.

2010 will be a huge year for him one way or the other.

Sorry, you can't equivocate now. He's trending downward from an already low spot and he's at the end of his career.

Nah nah nah nah nah. (You'll have to supply the tun for that one.)

huh?

I made a joking comment guys...try not to overanalyze every smartass remark someone makes.


Wont you guys be pissed if Brett bounces back to that 120 ERA+ guy that we all thought would be an Ace pitcher 5 years ago? That would have been far more likely had he signed with a team like the Cards and let Dave Duncan work his magic or in a team that didn't have a launch pad for a home park but oh well.

Without overanalyzing smartass remarks, there is nothing but a black hole where Beerleaguer used to be.

I blame Rube...he completed the 2010 roster by early January, leaving us with nothing to talk about till pitchers/catcher report in 6 weeks.

What a jerk.


If you want a good discussion, some idiot on Fangraphs argued that John Olerud should be in the Hall of Fame. Go there and refute it like I've been doing for 2 days.

Addition by subtraction. Good riddance.

about to engage clout, any advice guys?
ok here goes...
Clout, who said they were?

asksmith, I agree more everyday.

The guy sure knew how to negotiate a HUGE walk out of C.C. though didn't he? Don't forget it - it was huge!

Greatest PA in the history of the franchise.


Lots of pitcher's careers are done by Age 30...take Dan Petry for example. He was never the same after the injury bug struck him in his late 20s.

Dan Petry - havent heard that name dredged up in years - nice! How 'bout good 'ol Kevin Gross?

Petry was a pretty good pitcher till he jacked up his elbow.

First 7 seasons: 93-64, 115 ERA+

Never the same after that though.

Can you take a dog onto the berm area at Bright House field?

akmsith - I will be curious to see what role Myers fills with the Astros. If Myers got 1 yr/$5M without a lot of incentive-upside kickers and gives the Astros league average number (4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) in 25-30 starts, then this was one of rare potential savvier deals that Wade has made as the Astros' GM.

Certainly better than the questionable Lyon signing (3 yr/$15M) where it is almost impossible to see him outperforming his deal and easily seeing him underperform it due to injury/ineffectiveness.

Phils have just chosen to make upgrades elsewhere though and they didn't have the $5M available at this point to sign Myers to help them in the rotation or the pen.

As for Myers' leaving as a player, I don't mind that one bit. My least favorite Phils' player of the last decade for several reasons (e.g., immaturity on and off the field, questionable work ethic at times, etc). My bet is that his teammates and coaches sure much of the same sentiment. They won't be sad to see Myers' the person leave and won't talk about him in necessarily glowing terms when they face the Astros this season.

MG, I'm not sure I agree with your statement about Myers' teammates.

With the level of scrutiny sports franchises get nowadays, especially the kind of scrutiny a team gets when it goes to back-to-back WS (remember they had national media guys follow them around from time to time), I believe if there were any glaring problems in the locker room they would have come to light.

Now, the coaches are a different story, as we know he butted heads with Dubee, at least.

awh - It is pretty much speculation on my part with Myers and his teammates. Besides the overblown incident last year with Hamels, there haven't been that many notable public blow outs the last year or so.

Just seems like his teammates weren't crazy about his lack of preparation in 2008 nor did they appreciate when he would have one of his inevitable '2-cent head' moments on the mound.

Goodbye Brett. I don't like your style.

Where's Myers from, Jacksonville? Every guy I met from Jacksonville was a first class a-hole. They made my Philly friends look like hte mormon tabernacle choir. The notion that watching this guy walk is a good thing, viz a viz the team on the field, though, is silly. Here we are reading endless hand-wringing posts about the merits of having Kendricks, Moyers and Parks on the roster when a Myers would certainly suffice. If the reserve clause remained in effect, this is one tool they would have kept in the toolbox. Good luck to the guy. Should be fun to watch him if he faces his old team.

MG: Agree with your assessment. Lyon is way overpaid for his talent level. Just happened to be coming off a career year. But Myers as a #4 starter at $5M is a good bargain. The back end of 'Stros rotation has sucked for a few years now and this move bumps the wretched Brian Moehler back to 5th spot, where Houston fans can hope one of the kids takes his job in spring training.

Wade has upgraded the team at several spots, but even with that they don't look like more than a .500 team. One glaring weakness: The keystone combo of Keppinger and Matsui.

gobaystars: No one. I agree with you on the emotional part. I was just making the point that emotion need not be divorced from logic and knowledge, as it often is on Beerleaguer (see any comment by phlipper as an example).

Projected Astros lineup:

Bourn CF
Matsui 2B
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Pence RF
Feliz 3B
Towles C
Keppinger SS

Rotation

Oswalt RH
Rodriguez LH
Norris RH
Myers RH
Moehler RH

Setup/closer: Lyon/Lindstrom

Scare anyone? Didn't think so. Pitchers will salivate when they see the bottom of that lineup.

FWIW: A few years ago John Marzano was talking about Myers in the lockeroom. He said that if Myers was traded right now, nobody would be sad to see him go.

I believe that was just before the start of the 08 season, so a lot may have changed since then.

I wish him luck in Houston, but I'm not sorry to see him go. This is a big season for him.

Myers will be reunited w/ his spearfishing buddy, Jason Michaels. 2 classy guys.

Honestly, Condrey was a Bigger Loss.

I think it is safe to say that KK won't miss Myers in spring training this year that's for sure.

Myers if he was not one of our own (and he isn't any longer) is a guy most of us would love to hate. Now we get that chance. I always rooted for the light to come on with him, but now he's just a guy.

I think the chances of him doing much better than 95 ERA+ are pretty remote given the park factor down in Houston and his penchant for giving up the long ball.

Look for Myers to return to the Phils after a few years as Iverson did with the Sixers - NOT!

Bourne through Pence looks pretty strong, but ya after that it is a black hole.

just got my tickets 3/12 and 3/20 Phils @ Tigers.

lol. Still obsessed with me clout?

I guess that I shouldn't have been so tough on you when you laughably claimed that "reverting to norm" dictates that if a hitter is at 75 points above career norms one day before the end of the season, chances are that he'll end up the the year exactly at career norms.

It seems that being so completely humiliated has given you a complex.

I'll try to go easier on you next time you make a fool of yourself.

limoguy,

Heh. Maybe if Ryan Howard drifted out of town and then came back to wrap up his career here...

The CC walk video sent chills up my spine again. Then the other two spots reminded me of why I wasn't real sorry to see him go.

But yeah, mid-year when someone is hurt and that last pitching spot looks like the Keystone Cops, I'll forget all about those ugly moments.

Hey, we're on Beerleaguer. We're allowed to be inconsistent arean't we? Isn't that the whole point?

"Scare anyone? Didn't think so. Pitchers will salivate when they see the bottom of that lineup."

clout, are you saying that Ed Wade is creating a Black Hole in Houston and not Philly?

Geez, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but I think someone needs to tell Ed to chill out a bit.

kart racer, I missed your post about the black hole. You beat me to it. :)

The only thing I will say in Wade's defense (can't believe I'm doing this) is that he is in a situation where the owner demands that they always attempt to put a winning team on the field. There is no rebuilding in Houston, no taking the foot off the pedal, no trading of pricey veterans to retool.

Thus you have no farm system, bad contracts to veterans and and no giving up on a season.

Its a terrible situation to be in if you don't have the resources of the Yankees.

On a lighter note, the video of Shane's grand slam had me pumping my fist, over a year and 1/2 later.

NEPP - in that case Houston has their dream GM in Wade.

****NEPP - in that case Houston has their dream GM in Wade.****

Exactly.

****On a lighter note, the video of Shane's grand slam had me pumping my fist, over a year and 1/2 later.****

Yeah, I still get goosebumps watching it...and/or the WS Blu-Ray with that and many other clips.

NEPP - Do you have The Perfect Season DVD, as well? I liked the Goosebumps one in '07, but it's kind of disgusting how much better the official WS DVD was than the Phillies 2008 production.

No, I just have the official WS DVD...I've probably watched it 20-30 times over the past year and a half.


Is 'The Perfect Season' worth buying?

flipper: No obsession. You just happened to make one of your emotional, no-logic, no knowledge posts right in the middle of the discussion w. aksmith about the propensity of such posts.

And given that I was right about Burrell coming back from his deep slump in early 2007 and you were wrong, one would think you'd find a better example.

But your posts have at least been consistent since the first one you made here a couple of screen names ago: Worthless.

clout you are friggin' hilarious on here! I'll admit it is one of the reasons why I keep coming back!

clout, isn't that "werth-less". Oh, wait. :)

I agree Joel V.

NEPP - The Perfect Season is awful. I know it's stupid to say "the production values are awful" for a team-produced DVD about winning the World Series, but the production values are absolutely f-ing awful.

Plus, when it comes to narration, Terrence Howard > Brad Lidge.

Looks like Myers first game is against us. Games 4-6 for both teams are in Houston. At least it won't be cold. Combine how ex-phils do with our record in April, and it could get ugly.

But Terrence Howard is no Don Cheadle.

anyone excited at all about wassermann possibly making the BP? im late to the boat and could probably just go read all the posts from the last thread to answer this question but am feeling lazy.

he posted decent FIP in his last two years (only ones in the league), and was hurt last year by a real high BABIP. also in '07 his GB rate was ridiculous (not so great in '08). i'll admit though i'm biased by wanting a cool sidearm pitcher on the phillies

Astros look like a team trying to compete for the wildcard, instead of the division. Like Clout, I don't see the talent there as good enough to leapfrog both the Cardinals and Cubs. Their offense and pitching doesn't match up with St. Louis. Clout's also right about the bottom of the Houston lineup: when you have Feliz as a #6, that's not good. Bourn had a career year last year for the team, let's see if he duplicates it.

I'm happy Myers got another deal with Houston, I always liked him, but he definitely wasn't worth the 12 million on his option. I'd actually say the Phillies are so up against their payroll limit (140/145 million) that they can't even afford to spend 5 million on a starting budget. Them's the rules of a budget guys. Doesn't matter how bad your needs are, you don't have the money, they don't go fulfilled. And if the Phillies are at their budget limit, forget about another free agent starter with a 5/6 million a year deal. End of story.

"You just happened to make one of your emotional, no-logic, no knowledge posts right in the middle of the discussion w. aksmith about the propensity of such posts."

Pretty funny, clout - given that your emotional attachment to Burrell (in other words, your manlove) caused you to whine about how sorely his RH power bat would be missed, and to say that the Phillies should have paid him what - double what ANY GM in either league felt he was worth? And even at that, he was way overpaid last year.

I know love is blind, clout - but Wow!

Frankly, I thought Myers would be a better fit as a closer/setup-guy at this point in his career than as a starter. My bet is that his days being a decent starter are over.

I see him barely league-average and is among the league leaders in giving up HRs again this season if he stays in the rotation all year.

Besides his noted struggles with his velocity (which likely won't rebound that much even with his offseason surgery), he has never been a great control pitcher.
Over the last 3 years, he has had only a few months where he could effectively locate his 4-seem fastball enough to be a really effective starter.

My bet is that Myers starts the season in the rotation for the Astros due to a lack of better alternatives but ends up the season in the bullpen.

If his hip his healthy, he might give them good value.

I dont see his velocity coming back. He hasn't had that as a starter since 06ish.

@Nepp, i got this package for 20 bucks they were selling at that ballpark, it has every year ending dvd from jimmy's first year i think in 01 to the perfect season, pretty sweet stuff

Ed Wade has spent almost $15 million on Myers, Feliz and Lyon this offseason. Wow.

Thanks for the memories Brett.

Excuse my ignorance, but what was that audio clip from?

Len39 - Here is a rundown from Fan Graphs on the upcoming value of Lyon, Feliz, and Myers in 2010:

Lyon (0.8 WAR)
Feliz (2.0 WAR)
Myers (~1.0 WAR)

If they 4 WAR or so, that isn't bad value considering the FA market is paying about $3.5-$4M/WAR this offseason so far based upon 2010 projections.

My bet is that the generous ratings for Feliz including the rebound in his defensive rating and HRs don't hold up to to what CHONE is projection. Bet Feliz ends up around 0.5-1.0 WAR and Feliz won't have been a good signing. If he is at 2.0 WAR, it was a decent signing as a 1-year stopgap.

Myers probably has the most upside potential to exceed his projections though and provide the most value. If he can end up at around an ERA of 4.50 and stay in the rotation all year, he likely would project to around a 2.0-2.5 WAR and would represent the a pretty savvy Ed Wade FA signing.

Let's say that Myers/Feliz end up around 3.0 WAR this year for the Astros. That's not bad value and more importantly Wade potentially addressed two positions where the alternatives the Astros might have used might have been slightly negative WAR.

The issue with Wade is that he always manages to make a couple of WTF-type moves. Lyon signing is the perfect example.

Hard to see Lyon exceeding his $5M contract this year and it will likely go down as yet another bad Wade bullpen signing (really the calling card of his career as a GM so far).

I know the Astros need a potential closer but that isn't a role that Lyon has necessarily succeeded at before. Additionally, you have to wonder if the Astros wouldn't have been better off signing 1-2 veteran journeyman (and maybe a minor league guy or two) with that $5M instead of locking up Lyon.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Aroldis Chapman has signed with an unnamed NL team for around 30 million dollars.

Most of his suitors were previously thought to be AL teams. Most likely will be the Nats. But maybe it's the Phils...

Chapman to the Reds it looks like.

Wow - I did not see that coming from the Reds if that is where Chapman lands. Wow.

If it is, indeed, the
Redlegs you can add me to the "color me surprised" crowd.

$30 MM is way more than I would have predicted. I thought that it would be $25 MM tops.

And thus, we see another shining example of why awh "don't amke no stinkin' predictions".

The Red?!? Wow, someone wanted to make a splash.

If it works out, its a bargain. If not, ouch that really hamstrings them budget wise.

IF he is really a #2 level starter, its a bargain (even assuming he spends all of 2010 in the minors as expected).

If it's a five year deal as previously reported, that's a lot of money even for a quality unproven arm. But I have also seen that it might be for 10 years. That doesn't make any sense, but if it's really 10 years, the Reds may have gotten themselves the steal of the century.

If he pans out...definitely.

However, they'll look silly if they're paying $3 million in 2019 for a guy that never made it to the Majors.

"You just happened to make one of your emotional, no-logic posts"

That coming from the same clown who regularly makes emotional, no logic posts anytime someone dares to say a neagtive word about Jaime Moyer, Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu.

mikes77: Hey, say all the negative you want about those guys as long as it is factual. I can list 5 or 6 negative facts about each one. The problem is when guys who know very little about baseball, like yourself, begin pontificating. If you don't have the knowledge, acquire some and then post.

Yeah Mike,

If you "had the knowledge," like clout, you could write post after post that the Phillies should pay Burrell way more than any other team felt he was worth -- because they would miss his RH power bat in the lineup by signing Ibanez to replace him.

Don't you wish you "had the knowledge" like clout? If you did, you wouldn't allow your Burrell manlove to interfere with your pontificating.

Oh, and don't forget. Clout called Parker an "idiot" because he said that Kendrick had been "bad at times."

And of course, it wouldn't be clout's "emotional" attachment to KK that causes him to freak out any time someone points out that Kendrick is a less than mediocre pitcher.

LOL@ flipper & mike. clout's a rockstar here...

mike/phlipper - Why you you take it so personally? clout is a knowledgeable guy generally he is just standoffish. If you post on here with any kind of frequency, you will be on the end of clout's rhetorical questions or posts calling out your intelligence.

MG:

Interesting...

Gazoo:

Interesting, no?

"clout's a rockstar here"

Really? Wow, that is news to me. Nothing about clout says "rockstar" to me. Words like "weasel" or "condescending" are more appropriate.

If both pitch enough innings to qualify(myers will probably get hurt so its an 'if'), Kyle Kendrick will have a better ERA in 2010.

If Myers is a good move at $5mil, i wonder how much of a steal clout will pronouce Padilla's signing if/when it happens.

If consistent, I will guess his description of it might follows along the lines of best...deal...ever.

Would I rather read a post by clout or by phlipper and mikes77phillies? That's a no brainer.

phaithful - I hope you're right about hte ERA part. Why would you expect Myers to get hurt? The hip was the only significant injury I recall in his career and, if that's a factor, wouldn't Utley be of similar concern being an everyday player? My guess is that Myers makes his usual 30 starts and comes in with an ERA above 4.75 in that park in Houston. Kendrick is the one I doubt throws the innings to qualify for the ERA rankings.

Per MLBTraderumors:

Giants sign 33 year-old Aubrey Huff to a 1 yr/$3 million deal.

Really? Seriously? For a guy that hit just hit .241/.310/.384 in 2009?

This one is a head scratcher. They have Travis Ishikawa who is 26 years old, hits better and plays better defense. Yet the Giants STILL sign Huff to a $3 million deal.

Seems that $3 million could have been stretched towards other needs and players in the same position.

Yo, newer thread

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