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Wednesday, December 02, 2009

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Regarding JJ Putz, the interest apparently stems from the fact that Putz says he's willing to accept a 1-year, incentive-laden deal in an effort to rebuild his value. He's seeking the right situation to do so.

As long as Rube's sizing up the AARP contingent of MLB,what are the odds of trying out the Big Unit? That would be almost as much fun as Pedro.

Still waiting for BaP to list the players who have taken 20% pay cut in an arbitation hearing.

Beltre would be a fool to not accept arbitration. No team is going to pay him 10mil per in multi year deal. And it would be stupid to accept 3years/24 million on his part. He'll get at least 10mil this year in arb and can make up the difference easily in F/agency next year.

I take a day off and miss 4 threads...ridiculous.


On Smoltz: It would depend on the price. He can still pitch in the NL and he's versatile with closing experience. We could do worse. We could also do better.

Pencil me in as completely not interested in Wolf for the following reasons:

1. He's used Philly twice to get better deals on the West Coast.

2. He's another Lefty

3. He doesn't like pitching in CBP.

4. Return of the wolf pack.

NEPP, snooze and loose.

awh: NOOOOOOO!

Lose. Not Loose.

It's one of my biggest pet peeves...

Interesting point on Beltre. He takes some risk but next year he'll still be a young guy and perhaps with a rebound year could be in the same spot as Figgins. All this while pulling down 10MM which he could never get in FA. From this perspective I'd be surprised if he doesn't take the arb offer.

Wolf's not even that good! I'll give him credit for doing well in Chávez Ravine but it's a pitcher's park! No freakin' way plus he dicked Philly over twice now! Screw him! Let the Mets sign his ass!

Putz is definately worth taking a flier on.

Well, FWIW, Beltre said in an interview that he's made plenty of money in his career and he would like to win a World Series. Safeco kills his offensive production. He's got Boston and Philly interested in him. I'm having a really hard time seeing him choose Seattle.

Putz? No way!
Betancourt? Okay!
Smoltz? Nah!
Big Unit? Double Nah!!
Minnie Minoso? hmmmm...

Randy Wolf? You've got to be kidding. The worst kind of mercenary. So glad the Phils beat him in the NLCS.

Why hate for the pack nepp?

Not hate, just sick of it and we're past that as an Org. Time to move on.

Jimmie J - you wouldn't sign Putz for <$1M? I sure would, and if that's all Putz is asking for (I have no idea what his asking price is), I would hope the Phillies would be interested.

In general, I like the idea of acquiring impact relievers during the season. Guys on underperforming (not playoff bound) teams who will become free agents in 2011...

The list of potential '11 FA so far:
Scott Downs (35)
Frank Francisco (31)
Jason Frasor (33)
Brian Fuentes (35)
Trevor Hoffman (43)
Mike MacDougal (34)
Chad Qualls (32)
Mariano Rivera (41)
Huston Street (27)
Billy Wagner (39)
Kerry Wood (34)

Right-handed relievers
Grant Balfour (33)
Jesse Crain (29)
Juan Cruz (30)
Chad Durbin (33)
Kyle Farnsworth (35
Matt Guerrier (32)
Aaron Heilman (32)
Mike Lincoln (36)
Seth McClung (30)
Justin Miller (33)
Jon Rauch (32)
David Riske (34)
Scot Shields (35)
Dan Wheeler (33)

Left-handed relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (32)
Randy Choate (35)
Pedro Feliciano (34)
Trever Miller (38)
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41)
Bobby Seay (33)
Matt Thornton (34)

Signing relievers is tricky because they're some of the worst/riskiest values on the baseball team. But what makes them poor values in general also makes them easier to trade for during the season because it's an easy source for losing teams to shed salary (albeit somewhat marginally) and replace with an internal pitching prospect. I'd rather wait to see if the Phillies are on track to another playoff run before splurging on a reliever. And teams generally don't hold other teams over a barrel when trading for relievers. That said, I'd think the Phillies have a relatively high number of mid-level prospect pitchers who could be traded for one of these relievers.

Therefore, I think the Phillies focus this offseason should be finding a 3B starter, value village bullpen pieces, and a lefty pinchhitting threat who can play RF.

Putz wasn't really regarded as a positive clubhouse guy in NY...why is everyone so eager to sign him?

If it is an incentive laden deal it would be foolish not to roll the dice on Putz. This would be the definition of low risk, high reward.

Zolecki has the Phils in serious talks with Polanco. Huge upgrade offensively over Feliz (fangraphs has a good article up on him right now, too), and probably a guy who can still hold his own at the hot corner.

Assuming that Chuck will never move Rollins out of the leadoff spot, I thought Beltre would be a better fit for the Phils offense. Regardless, you gotta like Polanco's obp and decent ba in the Phils lineup. But I'd guess that Vic ends up batting 7th if we pick Placido, which would result in redoubled and endless lineup-construction arguments on Beerleaguer.

Could Polanco "ever" hold his own at the hot corner?

He's a career 2B who hasn't played a single inning at 3B since 2005.

I really don't like Polanco as the "answer" for 3B.

From the last thread:

AWH~ Thanks for your opinion. I like Polanco too. As I said, still a nice player. But I'd like the team to get younger at 3B. Wouldn't mind him as a back-up though. Glaus, when healthy is a monster bat.

RobbyJ~ Your point is well-taken. I know you want Beltre. So do I. But it doesn't look like they're going that way.

Brian G~ didn't mean to suggest that a better bench would have won the WS. Meant to say that Rube skimped on the bench guys and due to Dobbs's injury it really showed.

Guys, I never said Amaro was a bad GM and I know he has a budget. I respect that. All of us have budgets. But when you win, you draw. And you sell merchandise. Your revenues increase. Then you raise ticket prices. So don't skimp on the field that's all. Get the best guys you can.

When he was with the Phillies, Polanco was not a bad defensive third baseman at all. That said, among the guys who have been discussed, he's literally my last choice. He brings literally nothing to the table other than an ability to hit for high average. That skill is usually the first one to go, and there's compelling evidence that it's starting to go.

Polanco would be a good 2-hole hitter at least. I like that about him. I just dont know if he can even play 3B anymore. I assume Rube and Co know that better than me though.

It's like semantics day at beerleaguer. Fair enough NEPP, Polanco's limited experience at third keep him from qualifying for "holding his own" at the hot corner. For what it's worth, his career UZR 150 at 3rd is about 10 in 270 games started (all of them many years ago).

I agree with the apprehension about moving him to third but think he'd be fine in the end. Fangraphs also did a couple of interesting articles on this exact topic last spring (no joke, the same articles discuss in detail the height bias towards third as opposed to second). The articles sure made it seem that if you can play one, odds are decent you can play the other to about the same defensive ability.

Still, I agree, there may be better options for third. But that doesn't change the fact that Polanco would be an upgrade and a decent fit at least.

Well, he should at least get a jump going from the AL to the NL and going to a good offensive park (albeit one that doesnt play to his strengths as he's not a HR hitter). He is a career .334 hitter in CBP in 381 PA though.

Still, he's not a 3B.

Well, as long as he's got the arm strength still, he can probably handle it. Again, Rube and Co would know that better than us.

Latest from TradeRumors: A source "with knowledge of the Phillies' intentions" tells the FOX duo that the NL champs could offer Polanco a two-year deal worth between $10MM and $12MM.


That's a good chunk of change.

I suppose his ability to make contact would play well in the 2-hole. But his .331 OBP sure wouldn't. If our 1-2 hitters ended up being Rollins & Polanco, that would be a pretty crappy top of the order when it comes to getting on base. Unless, of course, Polanco were able to bounce back and hit .300+ again. But I'm skeptical.

BAP~ Polanco is not a bad defensive player as you mention.

NEPP~ You are also correct. Polanco would be an ideal 2-hole hitter. But who would you move down?

Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Vic?? Ruiz. In leiu of 82 RBI from Feliz, does that lineup produce more runs than last year? Yes if Rollins hits. No if he slumps most of the year.

I'd leave Rollins leading off and move Vic to the 7-hole. I dont think Rollins is gonna repeat his terrible 1st half in 2010. If he can give us .280/.330 with power like he did in the 2nd half (.844 OPS from July 2nd on), that's plenty out of the leadoff spot for our lineup.

Most of Polanco's "regression" in 2009 was BABIP related. Could have just been a fluke year.

Polanco's ability to play 3rd would be the least of my concerns. He has played the position extensively and arm strength is not something that I would expect to diminish much with age -- at least not at his age. His Gold Glove at 2nd base says that he still has the reflexes and agility to field ground balls. The ground balls come a little faster at 3rd base, but ground balls are still ground balls. I think he'd be fine on the defensive front. I worry more about his declining batting average, and his lack of other plus offensive skills.

4675 of Polanco's 6017 PAs have come out of the 2 hole. He'd be our 2-hole hitter if UC is consistent.

Polanco can also, clearly, play 2nd meaning he could spell Utley and further limit everyone's favorite utility player, Castro. That would be a nice factor. And if the price tag is $10-12 million over two years, I'm guessing the Phils would save money over Beltre and Figgins. I'd rather the Phils go whole hog at every position, but assuming they're not, saving money for the pen might be smart.

As long as we're moving a player to another position, why not move Utley to 3rd? - I'm kidding, but out of curiosity, I wonder whether it would work. Inspired by Pedroia's desire to switch to SS, although I realize he played there in college. But really, I'd rather the Phils leave their great DP tandem intact and just get a good third baseman, preferably someone younger. If it's to be Placido for the year, I can live with that, although I'd rather it be Beltre - but if it's Polanco or DeRosa, I hope they continue the search for a 3rd baseman for the future.

If the rumor is real, I would expect that he will be signed sometime tomorrow or Friday. Rube moves fast when he wants a player.

Or we don't move the best 2B in the game (offensively AND defensively) away from his position. Besides Utley didn't do well when they tried to make him a 3B back in 03/04 anyway.

Yeah, Placido may not hit 330 again, but I'm guessing he sees an ok bounce back in BA and OBP. Sure would be a busted top two if he and Jimmy continue to be BABIP-challenged. But if they return to something close to career norms, they'd both be pretty good table setters.

Even in a down year last year, Polanco was better than Feliz with the wood: 727 ops vs 695.

I'd be happy with a .290/.340 AVG/OBP out of him.

Beerleaguer is one of the few places where you can find people who actually think that $10M guaranteed is smarter than $24M guaranteed.

More amusing "wisdom" from Beerleaguer: Beltre is a way better offensive player than Polanco.

OPS+ past 5 years
Beltre 93 105 112 88 102
Polanco 120 80 121 101 88

Clout~ I'd rather them spend the money on Beltre. A 2-year deal for Polanco means he'll be 36 when it's done. The entire infield will be aging at the same time.

The polanco move is strictly money that's all. Let's hope Rube puts the savings over Beltre into the pitching staff.

Polly OPS+ over the past 5 years is also better than DeRosa's.

DPatrone: I don't disagree. Beltre is 3 years younger than Polanco.

But I think posters should be honest about what kind of players they are. Beltre is a low, low-OB, low AVG, high-K, high-HR good glove player. Polanco is a high-OB, high AVG, low-K, low-HR good glove (although I do understand many posters here think 3B is the most difficult position to play and the most important on the field and cannot imagine that a Gold Glove 2B could possibly make the move to such a tough position) player.

Personally, I think the Phillies offense would be better with Polly than Beltre. But because of Beltre's youth, power, glove and higher upside I lean his way. But the quality gap between the two isn't remotely what posters here think it is.

While the thought of signing Polance doesn't have me doing cartwheels in my living room, I do like the idea of adding a hitter that doesn't strike out and has good bat control. I'm only ok with this signing if he's going to hit 2nd, if they keep Vic in the 2 hole and hit Polanco 7th, then I would prefer a player like Beltre who can hit the homer and we know can play 3B.

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