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Thursday, December 10, 2009

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Here's an idea: Millwood isn't all that good, but the trade still seems decent for the Oriels. They get a guy who will eat up a bunch of innings, has plenty of experience, and even has a touch of upside. His peripherals have plenty of red flags, and last year looks rather fluky, but that doesn't mean he can't add value to a young team.

Also, thank you Amaro for not giving Lyon 15 million for three years.

Non-roster invitees will be announced in the next week or two. I've never been to the Winter Meetings, but I bet a lot of that gets done this week, probably handled by Ruben's lieutenants.

after looking over Mayo's Rule 5 column he are my guess as who the phils will take if you do take someone at all.

Chad Thall, LHP, Orioles: Thall is a big lefty coming off a very solid season in Double-A. He finished with a 2.69 ERA in 53 games, holding hitters to a .214 batting average against and striking out 55 over 60 1/3 IP. And he was death to lefties, holding them to a .188 batting average against while striking out 36 in 28 1/3 innings.

Corey Wimberly, UTIL, A's: He's got a lot of what teams look for in a Rule 5 pick: speed to spare and the ability to play a number of positions. Think of a poor man's Chone Figgins.

Armando Zerpa, LHP, Red Sox: He's only 22 and he's left-handed. On top of that, he held hitters to a .172 average and struck out 78 in 74 2/3 innings across two levels of A-ball. He was even stingier against lefties, holding them to a .097 batting average (7-for-72). Command (35 walks) might be a bit of an issue.

Considering that the Phillies just gave guaranteed contracts to 3 new bench players, it's pretty difficult to imagine any non-roster invitees having even a slim shot at making the team -- unless perhaps the non-roster invitee is a relief pitcher.

pb: Regarding somebody like Corey Wimberly:

Looking at his stats, he doesn't seem to have a major league bat. However, neither does Juan Castro (.650 OPS last year in a good year, .601 career). Wouldn't it be worth it to save a few hundred thousand and get somebody else who also can't hit, but can at least run the bases?

Which Phillie do you think gets thrust into the Eric Bruntlett Memorial Slow Pinch-Runner role? My bet is on Castro (5 SB, 8 CS in 1041 career games).

I have a feeling the Phils will save the $50k on the lottery ticket this time around and not take anyone unless it is a LOOGY reliever they want to take a look at in spring training.

The Jim Ed Warden inclusion is hilarious.

Also, with a name like Jim Ed Warden, this guy should be shooting heads of government not playing minor league ball.

I guess I'll give him a couple of years...

I see that Lyon signed with the Astros for 3 years, $15M.

Jack said that would never happen, that no team would pay that much or go that long.

Interesting.

pb: That Mayo column is a good one, but my bet is that the Phils would be more inclined toward the LOOGYs like Thall and Zerpa than a no-hit UT like Wimberly, since they already have that in Castro.

Two other LOOGYs he mentions are Chuck Lofgren and Zack Kroenke. My fave from that group is Lofgren, who has a decent fastball, sharply improved his previously sucky BB/9 and held lefties to .179 in Trip A.

The other 3 have never been on any prospect list. Zerpa has some promise, he hasn't pitched above A ball and the Phils would have to carry the guy all season. Thall is a classic late-round junkballer, the kind of guy who has lots of success in lower levels and then hits a wall. Kroenke is similar, although he had a nice year in Trip A, his BB/9 is poor so I'd rather give a shot to Lofgren.

one missed point on the Millwood debate last thread is that the Rangers turned around and signed Rich Harden for about the same amount of cash they saved in that trade.

Harden's much less likely to throw ~200 IP than Millwood, but his ceiling obviously blows Millwood's away.

Clout: in fairness to Jack, Ed Wade truly is the wild card.

Agreed on the Jim Ed Warden inclusion -- well done, JW.

Tuffy?

MLBTR has an interesting list of non-tender candidates. IMHO it is more likely the Phils will find a reliever/swingman in that group than they will in the Rule 5 draft.

Some of the names specualted about:

Mitre
Redding
Bush
Bonser
T Buchholz
Jenks
Olsen
Redding
Wang

List here:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/nontender-candidates-revised.html

don't think this link was posted:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10502238/Sources:-Phils,-Angels-lead-chase-for-Halladay

rosenthal as us as frontrunners for halladay giving up Happ and Taylor or Brown.

MLBTR links to a NY Dialy News article that has us possibly including Cole for Halladay.

Happ and Taylor, sign me up. Not on board if we have to give up Cole.

SHOCKER?

"Don't rule out them including Cole Hamels":

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/
2009/12/10/2009-12-10_untitled__halladay10s.html

In the same Daily News story Halladay is said to be pushing hard for a trade to the Phillies.

Brighthouse is only 15 minutes from his home.

The inclusion of Hamels sounds to me like wishful thinking on the part of a New York writer. The Phillies would be out of their freaking minds to deal Hamels after one off-year.

All you BLers "shocked" by Rube's pursuit of Roy need to get out of the basement more often.

I'm going to say this and IU feel pretty conident in it.

There is 0.0% chance the Phillies trade Cole Hamels anywhere- even if the deal brings back Roy Halladay.

That is wishful thinking on the part of a Mets beat writer. Of course you would want the Phillies to trade a younger pitcher who can be an ace now and into the future for a guy who is in his early 30's and may have only a few good years left. It would be a completely short-sighted move and I know the thought is to cash all the chips in now. However, I want the Phillies to be sitting at the table 10 years from now with a decent stack of chips.

The problem is cashing out is that it means you had better win or you're starting from scratch. I'm not necessarily against sending Happ and Brown or Taylor for Halladay but it just doesn't feel like a move that is going to be made.

This feels like a typical rumor that happens this time of year. There is, or was, some truth to it but it is becoming bigger story than it was originally.

Phils take Ken Herndon from the Angels RHP in the rule 5.

Happ is too cheap to trade. Maybe they'll take Blanton and a throw-in like Mayberry, who's career potential is very suspect.

I'd be fine with trading Cole if we could get an extension on both Lee and Halladay. I'd also believe that we could flip a couple lesser prospects there way if Cole was the centerpiece. That way we could save Taylor and Brown for when we need them.

As I said a month ago, Rube would try to sell the Jays a package built around Happ. So far, so good, but the Angels are getting desparate.

this is Ken Herndon. he also goes by David Herndon, FWIW.

doesn't look like anything special to me.

carlos monasterios- was taken in rule 5 by the mets

A couple things on the Halladay rumors...If Doc is traded here, then Blanton's a goner, either through trade or non-tender. And if we trade Happ + 1 or 2 for Doc, the rotation gets extremely thin after the top 3 of Lee/Halladay/Hamels...Who are the 4/5 starters? Kendrick/Moyer/? (maybe Pedro?). That's a GREAT playoff rotation, but not a great regular season rotation, and you've got to get to the playoffs first. Also, with only 8 or 9 mil available under their self-imposed payroll ceiling, there'd be next to nothing left for the bullpen and we'd be looking at a BP of Lidge/Madson/Romero/?/?/?/?...Who fills in those spots? I'm not opposed to giving some young guys like Bastardo and Mathieson a shot, but not 4 guys like that.

I LOVE the idea of trading for Halladay, and overall I'm in favor of getting it done and then figuring everything else out afterwards...but there's still a lot of risk there.

Halliday is NOT coming to Philly.

If he was going to come to Philly, it would have been last July.

Its simple economics, folks. The Phils cannot afford to pay him (even for 1 rental year) and are not going to gut their farm system to do it either.

The Phils have plenty of starting pitching, especially if Hamels comes back to life in 2010. They have an ace. This isn't "fantasy baseball".

Rube's next move (as it should be) will be for a late inning guy, who can possibly fill in/replace Lidge, should he be cooked.

Forget this Halliday nonsense. Its a waste of everybody's time. He'll end up in Boston or Anaheim and that will be that

ChrisinVt - old dogs like Smoltz and Pedro would be lining up to join that train.

And what's your problem with Moyer/KK - that's 2/5 of a BL paradise rotation.

Clout: I forgot that Ed Wade has a love affair with middle relievers and no sense of the market. I should've accounted for that. You're right.

Ed Wade. Unbelievable. Lyon should be the missing piece for the Astros, no?

I like that there are two conflicting stories. Happ and Taylor/Brown for Halladay and Amaro saying such a deal is "unlikely". If I wasn't such a hot stove junkie, I'd ignore these stories completely. It's annoying when you have the opportunity to get better and don't. And yes, they can afford him. This team is selling out left and right and some are predicting obtaining tickets to be very difficult next season and the prices have increased! So don't tell me the money isn't there!

I don't buy the Hamels to TOR rumor. I think Amaro already assured Hamels that he will be back and they're confident in him.

denny - I agree that it's unlikely, except all the "insiders" continue to insist that the Phils are 1 of the main players for Doc, if not leading the pack. Maybe the BJs are blowing smoke to try to drum up interest...but then how would you explain the Phils' interest in trading Blanton? Unless they're bringing in a better, more expensive starter, getting rid of Big Joe makes ZERO sense for a WS contending team. Where there's smoke, there's usually fire. And how many people thought the Phils were in on Cliff Lee last July before the deal took place?

As far as "gutting" the farm system, that won't happen. If Doc's traded, it will be a lot closer to the Santana deal than the Bedard deal. And Santana was acquired for 1 good prospect and 3 medicore ones. If that's the kind of deal it would take to bring him in, not only does it not gut the farm system but it represents tremendous value.

curt - we already went the "old dog" route with Moyer and Pedro last season...I'd prefer someone more reliable and less, um, old.

If our first three pitchers are Halladay, Lee and Hamels, I'm fine with Kendrick and Moyer.

what are the chances the dodgers can keep carlos monasterios on their 25 all season? i'd have to think there's like 85%-90% chance we get him back

If our first three pitchers are Halladay, Lee and Hamels, I'm fine with Kendrick and Moyer.

yeah, this seems like a no-brainer to me. there's a lot of potential issues with trading for Halladay, but the 4/5/6 starter ain't one of them.

The Dodgers are dumping payroll and players left and right...They look to be going through the same thing the Padres were a year or two ago with John Moore's divorce. I wouldn't be surprised to see them play a ton of young, cheap players and not even really worry about winning. Which would mean Monasterios will probably stick if he shows potential.

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