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Thursday, December 03, 2009

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BAP: There's a huge flaw in your thinking. You correctly state that RISP AVG is fluky and one cannot expect Feliz to repeat his .336 RISP (look at anyone's RISP year to year and you'll see it all over the map).

But then you leap to the absurd conclusion that the Phils won't score as many runs because Polly won't replicate Feliz's RISP. This is ridiculous for two reasons: First, any of the other 7 starters might see a huge leap in RISP because that's how that stat works: It's fluky. Second, Polly makes way, way fewer outs than Feliz (career 65% outs per PA vs. 71% per PA). That is a BIG difference. It means more chances for others in the lineup to drive in runs.

Bottom line: The addition of Polanco would INCREASE the numbers of runs the Phillies score, not decrease it, assuming the same level of production from the rest of the lineup.

Most amusing, however, is reading the posters who say a Gold Glove secondbaseman can't possibly play 3B.

It's a long-held belief by Beerleaguers that 3B is the most important position on the field, where most ground balls are hit etc. etc. Forget the baseball wisdom that the 4 spots up the middle are the most crucial defensive spots the most difficult to play and where most balls are hit.

the only thing worse than signing Polanco in the first place would be signing Polanco and dropping Victorino to 7th. 2007 was a total fluke season based on an unsustainable .346 BABIP (Polanco's career BABIP is .312).

additionally, his LD% has been under 20% the last two years (it was 23.9% and 28.2% in 2007 and 2005, his two best seasons) and his FB% has been steadily climbing since 2005 (a bad sign for anyone, but especially for someone who doesn't hit home runs).

the more I think about Polanco, the less I like it. add in the fact that he's played all of 9 innings at third since leaving Philadelphia and it looks like a total disaster waiting to happen.

Regurgitated from last thread...

I wouldn't be terribly concerned about Polanco's defense. He's not likely to be quite as good as Feliz, but I just don't see a scenario in which he's below average at the hot corner. He has a career UZR/150 at third base, and Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report indicates that he profiles well there on many fronts: 4.4 reaction/instincts, 4.8 hands/catching, 4.6 throwing accuracy. The only knock is a slightly below-average arm at 3.3 throwing strength, but that's in the same neighborhood as guys like Chipper Jones, Mark DeRosa, and Garrett Atkins.

Whoops, that was supposed to say "a career UZR/150 of 9.9 at third base". Stupid fingers.

Dipatrone: From last thread you said;

"I said yesterday, you win, you draw, you sell merchandise you raise ticket prices, your revenues increase. They'll spend. But they won't put all of the extra revenue into the product on the field, that's for sure."

One MAJOR flaw in your statement is that the Phillies DO NOT keep all the revenue made by ticket prices, merchandise sold, etc.. The merchandise is split evenly with all the teams in the MLB. That is why you are able to purchase a Oakland A's hat at our Majestic store if you wanted. All MLB teams share the revenue on merchandise sold. Concerning the ticket sales, the Phillies have to pay out a portion to both the Umpire and Players' unions. Therefore, they make money on ticket sales, but not nearly the amount people here tend to think.

clout: I don't share in the opinion that Polanco can't play 3rd. My concern is whether he can play 3rd on an everyday basis. The main reason is that he hasn't played the position for more than 21 games since 2002! And everyone here is harping over his offensive numbers compared to other 3rd base options. Hello! Earth to BLer, we need defense over offense. This team led the league in nearly every offensive category.

So the majority would rather sign Polanco to a 3 yr/ 18 mill deal that would make him 37 when the deal expires over a Beltre who actually plays 3rd everyday. Along with having good defense and offense to offer. All we need to give him is 4 yr/ 34 mill. Is this even a debate?

Once again since Polanco's name is entering our rumor mill, I am pretty certain he won't be coming here.

I am not changing my handle to Peaceful Turkey Seller.

FYI, the Phils have raised ticket prices for next season. My season tickets are $2 more per seat per game. Not sure if every seat is being increased $2, but if it is, that's about $90,000 more per game. At 82 home games per year, that's $7,380,000.

I don't know if this has been postulated and whether it's off the wall. Can Polanco lead off? He has identical lifetime OBA to Vic 20 pts higher lifetime average than Vic or J-Roll and a lower strikeout rate. Of course he doesnt steal more than 10 bases. This leaves Vic in the 2 spot and bumps Rollins to 6th or 7th depending on the pitcher. Please tell me if I missed something.

Clout: According to Tom Tango the positional value of 2nd and 3rd (and CF)are the same at +2.5 runs. And, according to Dave Cameron ". . . second base is an overrated defensive position. It is lumped into the “up the middle” spots with catcher, shortstop, and center field, but is not actually that much more difficult to play than third base. I also mentioned that there’s been something of a height bias, where tall infielders are shifted to third and short infielders are shifted to second, even if the tall guy is a better defender than the short guy." (thought I'd include the height thing though it's not really germane to the point) It's also been long held that 3rd takes a different physical skill set than SS or 2nd because it's more about reaction time.

Not say'n he can't play it, just that it's no sure thing that he can move over. . . and I think I'd rather have Beltre.

Kutztown: It isn't every seat. Most seats won change. Most will change $2, while some will be $4. So I am going to venture to guess just the lower level seats will increase. So at around 20,000 lower level seats at $2 per game is $40,000 and for the season is around $3,280,000.

The 2009 payroll was around $139 million. Therefore the Phillies are planning to spend around $140 million this year. So, aren't they putting that money into the payroll?

From the last thread~

DPatrone - "But they won't put all of the extra revenue into the product on the field, that's for sure." It's not 2000 anymore. Cliff Lee? Recall the salary bumps post-WFC? a $140M payroll? Live in the now.

Sophist~ You miss my point. I know about the increase in payroll. What I'm saying is this: It has been speculated the Beltre would cost more than Polanco. Couple that with the fact the he was offered arb, well possibly being more expensive AND forfeiting a draft pick means it will be Polanco and not Beltre.

MVP~ In response to the same statement. I know they keep all the revenue fmerchandise sales. But the fact of the matter is that their revenues WILL increase. Let's se how much of it they re-invest in the product. on the field. Castro @ 900K in not a good investment. Schneider @ 2.75 for 2 years is.


If I'm allowed a post without the citing of a single statistic: Placido Polanco is far more of an asset to a baseball team than Pedro Feliz, and probably even guys like Beltre and DeRosa, whose overall games are more flawed. As a guy who is highly intense and conscious of doing what it takes to win, it's hard to imagine a more extreme contrast at the position than what we saw the previous two years. Put it this way, the ratio of times Polanco is going to drive BLers to the kind of #@%!*%$ posts Feliz could inspire daily is about 100-1. His game would make the Phils that much more enjoyable to watch.

DiPatrone: Answer me this.

Would you rather have Castro and Schneider or Brunlett and Bako?

I will be awaiting your response...

JBird: Really? Turning a DP at 2B is easy as pie? It's just as easy a position as 3B? I beg to differ and could care less what Tom Tango and his defensive metrics say. Ask Tango how many plays per game are made at 3B and how many at 2B.

er, I guess that would be 1-100. Feh, numbers.

RSB: "Put it this way, the ratio of times Polanco is going to drive BLers to the kind of #@%!*%$ posts Feliz could inspire daily is about 100-1. His game would make the Phils that much more enjoyable to watch."

Really? Based on what? Polanco's whole 40+ games he played 3rd since 2002? Offensively, no doubt Polanco is better. But defensively at 3rd, trying to move a 34 year old to 3rd on an everyday basis is not smart. Spend the extra 2 million a year and get Beltre.

When Chase and Polanco were splitting time, we had a stiff playing 3B. It was obvious Chase needed to play every day. The Phils opted to trade Polanco i/o Bell b/c Polanco could not handle 3B on an every-day basis. So we traded the better player and suffered through all those games with Bell at 3rd. Now, if rumors are true, Polanco, at age 34, can all of a sudden handle the position? I don't think I'm buying. I think Polanco is a heck of a ball player but there are better options available. It sounds like Joe Banner and Andy Reid are helping with the spin here.

A-Train: You are completely correct. I smell a ploy to get Boras and Beltre to hurry up with a decision.

MVP - my point was that ticket prices are rising, giving more revenue for the Phils to spend. If we use your estimation of $3,280,000 it would seem the Phils don't have that much more to spend. (What a world when $3+ million isn't considered much.)

A-Train: When Chase and Polanco were splitting time, we had a stiff playing 3B. It was obvious Chase needed to play every day. The Phils opted to trade Polanco i/o Bell b/c Polanco could not handle 3B on an every-day basis. So we traded the better player and suffered through all those games with Bell at 3rd. Now, if rumors are true, Polanco, at age 34, can all of a sudden handle the position? I don't think I'm buying. I think Polanco is a heck of a ball player but there are better options available. It sounds like Joe Banner and Andy Reid are helping with the spin here.

We didn't let Polanco go because he couldn't play 3rd. He didn't want to play 3rd. he saw himself as a 2nd baseman. Now that he's older he is ok with playing 3rd. I don't know whether or not he can do it at this point of his career, but you logic is flawed.

"Most amusing, however, is reading the posters who say a Gold Glove secondbaseman can't possibly play 3B."

clout, I share your amusement.

First of all, we're talking about Polanco, a guy who has ACTUALLY PLAYED 3B in the past, not some guy they're going to take a flyer on and see if it works out.

One of the mild criticisms of Feliz on this board has been that his range has decreased of late. Well, Polanco solves that problem, doesn't he? Doesn't he? I challenge anyone here to please give a logical explanation of why a GG winning 2B doesn't have the range to play 3B, and would provide increased range at the position.

Lastly, have any of you ever heard of the Defensive Spectrum?

From Bill James' Primer:

"[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]

with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right to left along the spectrum successfully during their careers."
Which position is supposed to be harder to play?

Kutztown: True. But my point is that the management doesn't keep all that money. It goes to various places like the players and umps unions. The remainder of the gate gets pushed into the payroll. That is how this management group works. As soon as CBP was built that is how they did things.

A-train - You beat me to the punch - so I have to agree with you. We had him, but they at that time did not think he could handle 3rd base position, so he was traded. Why now do they think hes capable? Even though I like his bat, but they liked it then, since Rolen was traded for him.

You know, looking at Beltre's numbers, if it takes a 4 year 40 million+ deal to get him (it's Scott Boras here, the asking price is likely 10 mil a year), he's not worth it. Not by a long shot. Not when you can use that money to keep Werth or Victorino.

Here's Beltre's numbers the last 3 seasons:
BA/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI/BB/SO/TB/AB
2009: .265/.304/.379/8/44/19/74/170/449
2008: .266/.327/.457/25/77/50/90/254/556
2007: .276/.319/.482/26/99/38/104/287/595

So he's had an off year when he was about to walk too, thing is, Beltre dropped 100 points in his OPS, Polanco dropped 40. Is age really that much of a difference that Beltre's off year isn't a big red flag, but Polanco's is? Beltre's 30 for goodness sake, it's not like he's a young kid compared to Polanco. DeRosa's also got the same size drop in production as Beltre, and he's the same age as Polanco.

For me, the issue with Polanco is his defense at 3B. I don't think he can do it full time, so I guess Dobbs well get more starts in a platoon role to give Polanco a break. However, Polanco can also backup Utley and Rollins and I'm sure this is a factor in his pursuit over Beltre, who can play 3B only.

Yes, we should try and improve offensively at 3B. At worst, Polanco is a marginal improvement over Feliz for the same amount of money we payed Pete Happy. At best, he's a high average hitter from the right side. Having a .290BA/.340 OPB hitter in the 7 hole would be great.

Guys, they're not in a position to make a ton of big signings. Arbitration hasn't started yet, and the payroll ceiling is 140 million. They've addressed backup catcher, they still need another reliever or two, AND they have to add a 3B. You can't afford to spend 10 million a year on Beltre now, not if it costs you the ability to retain Victorino, Werth, or Lee, since these guys are a more important part of the team than any potential 3B we could sign this year.

Heyman is reporting it's a done deal 3/18 will be signed tomorrow

Couple things here as I've been laying back and reading these discussions.

- Polanco's 2009 season offensive output is not all that different statistically from his 2004 and 2006 seasons. The following year both those times he rebounded with a great season. So it's real possible some things just didn't go his way last season.

- Both Beltre and Polanco would've been good additions to this line-up for different reasons. Beltre would've provided another right handed bat with pop that could've surrounded Ibanez and really made our 3-7 a tough out with a ton of power. Polanco works best in the 2 hole and does a good job of getting on base and hitting behind the runner. Let's assume Polanco moves into the 2 hole and Vic down to the 7 hole. Victorino would add a good dimension to the bottom of the line-up with his power potential, but more importantly his speed. There have been numerous instances ove rthe past few years where Vic's ability to swipe a bag has unnerved a pitcher on the mound. With him dancing around over there the chances of Ruiz getting more fastballs and more mistake pitches increases. That potentially makes the line-up dangerous throughout. Basically Beltre and Polanco bring different elements to the line-up, and both are good elements.

- Lastly, there is one thing I think being overlooked here. Polanco is being brought in as the third basemen but I still asssume Dobbs will see time over there. More importantly though, when Utley needs a rest (or god forbid gets hurt) we now have a legitimate guy who can slide over there and hold his own without being a total collapse like Bruntlett (or someone similar to him ) would've been. Polanco would definitely be the startign third baseman but I'd venture he sees his share of duty at second as well this season. Rube has done well so far is provide Charlie with options to give Rollins and Utley a rest from time to time.

we traded Polnaco not because he count play 3rd, but because David Bell wouldnt get us Urbina.

3B and 2B are very different. Yes, catching the ball is the same but 3B requires very fast reflexes and a quick first step. Second basemen can make up for a lack of this by being more fast than quick. 3B also requires a much stronger and accurate arm to make the long throws.

I belive Chase to be an excellent second baseman but I don't think he has the arm to play 3rd.

Haven't watched Polanco since he left here (as a 2nd baseman) so I don't know about his arm.

We've seen Pedro make all the throws right to Ryan Howard's chest for 2 years now. Not everyone can do that. It may look easy but it's not.

Pyro, I don't remember Polanco saying he didn't want to play 3rd. I remember the Phils not wanting to admit a mistake in Bell.

Overall, I believe Polanco to be a positive over Pedro offensively. He can bat 2nd or 7th and be helpful. He can move a runner and he doesn't strike out a lot. He'd be nice to have to spell Chase now and then too. I'm just not so sure about the defense at 3rd.

"the more I think about Polanco, the less I like it. add in the fact that he's played all of 9 innings at third since leaving Philadelphia and it looks like a total disaster waiting to happen."

ae, I understand you're expressing an opinion, but why would you characterize it as a "disaster waiting to happen"?

Boys and Girls, when analyzing who Feliz's potential replacement is you need to keep only ONE thing in mind:

He will be replacing Feliz. Yes, Pete Happy had a good year in 2009 because of a fluky RISP BA, but he's not likely to repeat it. It's still Feliz who's going to be replaced.

ALMOST ANYONE IS GOING TO BE AN UPGRADE!

Get it?


"The Phils opted to trade Polanco i/o Bell b/c Polanco could not handle 3B on an every-day basis."

pyro, what team were you watching? At the time of the trade, Polanco had played a LOT of 3B in St. Louis before the trade as well as 323 innings with the Phils.

The reason he didn't play more 3B with the Phils? David Bell...not because he couldn't handle it.

The reason he (and not Bell) got traded? Bell's foolish contract made him untradeable, because the FO at the time refused to eat money. I'll bet my left arm that if the FO had a "do-over" the FO would eat the money, and Polly would have been in Philly at 3B the last 4 years.

You can't re-write history to suit your opinion. You'll never get away with it - at least not on this board.

Clout: there's Dave Cameron's article about 2b. quibble with it if you like. I'm not sure about your assertion that total chances is the best way to determine positional value. So let's just move Shane Victorino to 3rd since according to Bill James' Defensive Spectrum he should be able to handle it and then we can sign Mike Cameron instead or call up Taylor and move Werth over to CF.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/second-base-is-the-new-third-base

Polanco's deal is reportedly 3/18 with a 4th year vesting option...Not sure I like the # of years, but Polanco's definitely an upgrade to the lineup. He brings a contact hitting approach that nobody else in the lineup does, and is an ideal #2 hitter. They are apparently hoping that Victorino can become a more productive RBI man lower in the order as well.

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