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Thursday, December 10, 2009

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At least Jesus Sanchez still remains.

Heyman's reporting the Phillies have joined the Angels, Yankees, and Red Sox in the trade derby for Halladay. Not sure what his sources are: if it's Halladay's agent and the Blue Jays, well, I take that with a grain of salt. Link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/12/07/winter.buzz/index.html

Also, according to mlb.com, the Angels have made an offer for Halladay involving Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and a CF prospect Peter Bourjous. Link here : http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/ . I don't see how the Phillies top that offer, nor should they, since it's a one year rental for the pitcher.

I know $50,000 isn't a lot of money to a baseball team, but it's still $50,000. And it's a bit hard to take their cries of poverty seriously when they're willing to take $50,000 and set it on fire -- which is essentially what they keep doing with these ludicrous Rule 5 picks.

According to Fox Sports (link: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10502238/Sources:-Phils,-Angels-lead-chase-for-Halladay) the Phillies offer is for Happ, and either Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown.

Well there goes the world series. See you in 2011

$50,000 is nothing. They likely already had it as part of their budget.

bap - how much do you imagine the value of this franchise has increased over the past few years?

Whether or not the team makes a "profit" from year to year is an accounting decision.

Lauber's twitter from Amaro on Halladay:

http://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/6532664161

Well, it's either smoke and mirrors of there not going to do it.

Does losing Monasterios in the Rule 5 draft make the Abreu deal better or worse when the baseball historians do their final look back on the deal? What's worth more, the $50,000 the Phillies get for him or retaining Monasterios? Only clout knows for sure!

It's a tale of two stories isn't it? What stands out to me though is the Angels' offer. Why offer Saunders if they are going to lose Lackey for a year of Halladay? Seems crazy to me.

Lake Fred: The $50,000 makes the Abreu trade better. It effectively gave us a free pick in the Rule 5 draft, since that money offsets what we paid for David Herndon. I don't know if David Herndon will pan out & I rather doubt it. But a free pick in the Rule 5 draft > Carlos Monasterios.

Now, here's a better question. What if Carlos Monasterios turns into Johan Santana, wins 3 Cy Young Awards & leads the Mets to 5 straight NL East titles? Would that make the Abreu trade better, since we received a star pitcher in return? Or would it make it worse since, as a trickle-down result of that trade, we made our key division rival much better?

bay_area_phan: Now, here's a better question. What if Carlos Monasterios turns into Johan Santana, wins 3 Cy Young Awards & leads the Mets to 5 straight NL East titles? Would that make the Abreu trade better, since we received a star pitcher in return? Or would it make it worse since, as a trickle-down result of that trade, we made our key division rival much better?

The mets traded him to the Dodgers.

In the AAA Phase of the Rule % Draft, the Piggies took Angelo Sanchez, RHP, from the Twinkies New Britain farm club.

Rookie League (APPY) 2009 stats:

5.52 ERA, 60.1 IP, 1.392 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, K/BB 3.20

Rookie League (GULF) 2008 stats

3.62 ERA, 54.2 IP, 1.537 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 , 9.1 K/9, K/BB 3.06

perhaps the more interesting question: if Carlos Monasterios turns into Johan Santana, what happens to Johan Santana? does he turn into Carlos Monasterios? are the Mets allowed to have two versions of the same player on their team? or is this like that documentary film Timecop where if the two Santana touch each other, they explode?

ae - umm no. Santana turns into Bastardo. Bastardo then, OBVIOUSLY, turns into Monasterios.

Brandon Lyon to sign with the Astros, Rafael Soriano traded to the Rays, and Mike Lowell to be traded to the Rangers.

Monasterios has to stick with the Dodgers or they have to offer him back to phils for $25k. Is he worth it?

So esentially we traded Carlos Monasterios for David Herndon. Using BL logic, it was a good deal because Carlos Monasterios is only 6 foot two, while David Herndon is six foot three. Height trumps all other attributes on BL. Actually, I like Herndon's stats over Carlos Monasterios, not enough to be a major leaguer, but he has been used as a closer the last couple of years. I guess this is part of Rube's Value Village II bullpen.

Here my take:

Of course the offer for Halladay was made by Amaro. It probably was turened down so Amaro is denying. it. The Angels made a better offer.

And as far as Barndon Lyon, Amaro say Wade stole him from the Phils despite having other holes. Don't blame Wade, blame Amaro. If he commits the $$ to Lyon that Lyon wanted (albeit too much), he would be a Phillie not an Astro.

So, Amaro still hasn't fixed the 'pen. He'll likely tender contracts to Conrey and Durbin and Herndon whave have to stay. He'll probably sign Smoltz now (so what). So the 'pen is actually worse than it was not better. Why to go Rube.

Zolecki seems weirdly insistent that not only are the Phillies still in the Halladay sweepstakes, they're among the front-runners.

I know the Blanton trade rumors/refusal to dole out for Park and Eyre could be indicators that we're saving up for Roy, but every other published report/word out of Amaro's mouth says that it's not realistic. I'm surprised Zolecki is running with it so hard, I guess we'll see who scoops who when it's all over.

Chances of Monasterios sticking with the Dodgers are pretty slim, but he's been showing progress up the chain and isn't a bad use of $50k. If he makes it at all, it would be as a fringe middle reliever.

I'm glad the Phils didn't get Lyon for 3 years, $15mil.

I don't get it, DPatrone. you're mad at Amaro for not spending what you acknowledge is too much on Lyon?

"The mets traded him to the Dodgers."

Pyro: don't ruin my hypothetical.

Since Beerleaguer loves this kind of stuff . . . the Astros have inked Gary Majewski to a minor league contract. I could see an entire new thread on that subject.

ESPN's Jayson Stark says the Phillies are now looking hard at John Smoltz as a possible "back-of-the-bullpen weapon." Smoltz's agent apparently told the Phils that the pitcher has no problem with Citizens Bank Park. (from mlbtraderumors.com)

What do you think about the possibility of getting Smoltz, about Smoltz's issues/non-issues with CBP, about whether Smoltz will be a)better and/or b)cheaper than Myers would have been?

Smoltz is a lot more interesting to me as a reliever than as a starter. his splits in '09 are much stronger earlier in the game than in the 2nd/3rd PAs or 3rd/4th/etc. innings.

I think the ballpark issue is overrated, Smoltz will almost certainly demand less $ and years than Myers, and Myers wasn't going to come here anyway.

King Myno~

Agreed. Where there's smoke there surely is fire. The Phils are definitely in the mix. But their offer is not a better one than the Angels made. Amro's is denying everything because he has to. Zo is doing his job. He worked in Philly, and he's feeding the phans info.

My point is that only this: No Eyre, Park, Lyon, or Rodney for the 'pen because RAJ didn't get it done. And then he bitches to Lauber about the Astros. Lyon wanted the money, he got it. That's that. Everyone should listen to this very important point: It's always about the money. I didn't want Lyon @ 3/15. Thats too much. But remmeber I'm always harping on paying the going rate? Well, no the market has been set. So refusal to pay means we're stuck with Herndon and maybe Smoltz. Of course Smoltz is now saying he has no problem with CBP. He wants a contract. At 43, no one else is gonna give him one.

So is Amaro pulling stealth moves with Halladay, or are reporters/agents generating news? We will see

I'm reasonably confident that Smoltz could still be an effective reliever, since he still has the ability to miss bats and throw strikes. If he's used purely in a relief role, it could be a very good signing. But, if they're even thinking of using him as a starter, I would definitely have a problem.

The hand Rube's playing is pretty simple. Bottom line is that Halladay might fall into Rube's lap for a package more appealing to the Jays than the two 2011 draft picks they're looking at AFTER paying Roy $15 million they don't really have. In other words a package like Happ and Taylor.

Halladay holds most of the leverage, and is exercising it. He wants traded to the Phils, Yanks or Bosox before spring training. Neither the Yanks nor the Sox really need him, but they will step in if the other makes a play. And of course the Jays aren't particularly eager to trade him to the AL East.

The Angels want him badly - IF they are going to lose Lackey. He doesn't want the Angels. If the Angels manage to sign Lackey, they lose interest in Roy. He falls into our lap. Since it's looking more and more possible, Rube's working on ways to make room in the payroll (Blanton).

It's about spending the right money on the right player, not just b/c he could be the best "name" on the market. Seems that Amaro is looking to go the non-tender route, hoping he can spend less. Maybe it's the right way to go. Lyon's low K totals worried me.

And no, I don't think we'll be stuck with this Rule V guy as our offseason reliever acquisition.

AE~

No. I'm not mand at Amaro for not getting Lyon. No way you pay him mopre per year than Madson. I'm mad at him for not updrading the 'pen.

Hypothetically speaking:

Amaro to Lyon's agent: We'd like Brandon to pitch for us, we're offering 3/12.

Agent: That's a very nice offer, but you know I was hoping to get a liitle more.

Amaro: Sorry but at the moment I'm n ot at liberty go go about that offer. We really like Brandon though.

Agent: Well if we don't get a better offer, than consider him signed. I'll be in touch.

Agent to Wade. We're asking 3/15. If we don't get it, we're signing with Phila.

Wade: we'll give it to you.

Agent: Fine. done deal.

Amaro to Lauber: That SOB wade took my reliver.

AE~ Amaro has said all along if there were better offers out there for players than he made. they should take them. They will and do. It's Rube's fault, not Wade's. Most players are not gonna accept less money to play. I say most not all. They want as much as they can get and who can blame them. But when you offer less than someone else, your usually left holding air.

Does anyone (Bed Beard) disagree with me that the Phils 'pen is at the moment not in better shape than it was?

I do believe that they will make a run at McDougal if he's non-tendered. 33, hard-thrower, not expensive.

I think the Lyon situation is actually Ed Wade trying to help the phillies and make up for all the stupid stuff he did back in the day. Thank you, Ed.

I'm with Dave:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-worst-signing-of-the-winter

DPatrone - RAJ wasn't bitching to Lauber. He was joking about Wade. That said, he was probably laughing that Wade paid Lyon 3 years for $15M. That's ridiculous for a guy who is an average middle reliever.

As long as Smoltz's workload is carefully monitored, he should be able to contribute out of the pen. Just don't expect him to pitch back to back games with any frequency, if he's to be effective for 162 games. If he's handled like Saito was for the Red Sox, he should be a valuable arm.

Braves got nothing for Soriano besides salary relief. I wonder how they feel about him accepting arbitration.

Of course the pen is in bad shape and needs work. That doesn't mean to go out and rush into bad contracts like some (coughWadecough) have done.

Bed Beard~

If we get Halladay, Rube's had a great off-season. I'm not disagreeing with you on Lyon. Merely showing how things work. You know how they work too. Amaro didn't sign Lyon because he didn't want to meet his price (and he shouldn't have). But then don't tell Scott Lauber that the Astros stole Lyon from the Phils.

Lyon's money ranks right up there with Wolf's. A ridiculous amout for average to slightly above above pitchers. Shows what the premium for pitching is.

This line of thinking was brought up another thread, but everybody needs to draw a parallel between what Amaro says and what NFL GM's say leading up to NFL Draft: don't believe a freaking word they say.

That doesn't mean we're getting Halladay, but he has no incentive to let everyone know our intentions.

However, I predict we are going to get Halladay. Like somebody else mentioned in this thread, the Jays aren't going to want two 2011 picks after they pay him 15M in 2010 and then guess on two draft picks. They can't get legit MLB ready players from us or somebody else. And if Halladay won't approve a trade to the Angels then we are the front runners. Plus, it's possible Halladay would approve a trade to the Angels, but won't sign an extension. That shoots the Halos leverage to hell.

Blanton gets traded to clear some space and hell, maybe Werth or Ibanez too. (Don't ask me who would play our corner OF spots or who we would trade them to or for what).

Lyon got overpaid. He'll suck for the 'stros next year as they wallow in or near the cellar. Wade will be thinking about all the free time he'll have after he gets fired.

DPatrone: I think we agree on a lot, except for how the process actually works. I enjoy reading any tidbit I can to try to figure out if a trade/signing is going to happen. However, I take them all with a grain of salt.

You, however, seem to read into everything as if it is gospel and/or just want SOMETHING(!!) to happen so you can talk about it, then later complain about it.

Bed Beard~

Not saying Rube should rush into any bad contract. But what's plan B. Or C etc.

Plan B or C: I'd love to know, but why the heck should he talk about it openly?

Bed Beard~

I don't take everything is gospel. But I do want them to put a team together that will win another WS.

Since Smoltz is only 43, will he get a 2 or 3 year deal?

Dom Patrone, c'mon, be reasonable.

Ruben almost never shows his hand before he plays it.

I'm sure they have Plan A, B, C, D......

Do you really expect him to discuss it publicly? Really?

Ed Wade got us again (no not really)

Pedro Feliz Close To Signing With Astros
By Tim Dierkes [December 10, 2009 at 11:53am CST]
The Astros are close to signing Pedro Feliz to a one-year deal worth about $4MM, tweets ESPN's Enrique Rojas.

Poor Kenneth David Herndon is merely a future roster casualty. He'll go the way of past Rule 5 flunkies- Robert Mosebach, Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, Adam Donachie, Jim Ed Warden, and Ryan Budde...bunch of all-stars there right? In fact, the last successful Rule 5 draftee the Phils had was Shane Victorino in 2004, and even he didn't make the Opening Day roster.

Rodeo: The Braves undoubtedly hoped that Soriano would decline arbitration, so they could get their 2 draft picks for him. Instead, he accepted & they promptly traded him away in exchange for 100% salary relief & a guy who might be a passable 6th or 7th reliever.

Had they NOT offered arbitration to Soriano, they would have gotten absolutely nothing for him when he signed elsewhere. So, even though he called their bluff & accepted arbitration, they still ended up better off as a result of offering arbitration. Right?

DPatrone: I still don't get it. why should I "blame" Amaro for not signing an awful contract?

even if Amaro did, for some unfathomable reason, outbid Wade for Lyon, there's a fairly good chance that he wouldn't be any better than whatever Condrey/Walker/Value Village type Amaro finds instead. Lyon's had some very good years and some replacement level or worse years. and last season, he had an unsustainable BABIP (.229) and strand rate (80%), both way out of line with his history.

the fact that Amaro is unwilling to pay an exorbitant premium for a Veteran Reliever is a good thing, not something I have any intention of "blaming" him for.

Rodeo Jones: OK, let's review. The Braves had a choice: They could either not offer arb to Soriano, in which case they lose him and get nothing.

Or they could offer arb to him and hope he turns it down, realizing that if he doesn't they would have to deal him and possibly get nothing.

So his decision to accept arb is a major disaster for the Braves, according to NEPP, and other posters here, because he accepted arb and they were forced to trade him and get Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old middle reliever who makes the major league minimum.

And this is a disaster how?

Zolecki coming up on 610...

Rodeo Jones: "Braves got nothing for Soriano besides salary relief. I wonder how they feel about him accepting arbitration."

I'm pretty sure they don't care, or more likely are happy about it because they got a young, cheap reliever for him. So what was the harm in offering it to him?

ae: Totally agree. Most relievers are notoriously erratic because they pitch so few IP each year. Unless it's a stud closer, you don't give them a fat contract and evcen then it's high risk (Lidge). Shorter the better.

ae: I completely agree. I don't understand the pseudo-whining going on about it.

If the Phillies make it through the rest of the offseason without giving a more than 1yr/3mil contract to either Brandon "higher career ERA than Clay Condrey" Lyon or Fernando "higher career ERA than Clay Condrey" Rodney, then I will consider it a success.

The Astros just signed Pedro Feliz (1yr, 4.5mm).

They might as well rename themselves the Houston Phillies at this point.

Zolecki: "It's definitely legit" regarding Halladay.

And for a certain BLer: "Amaro has no reason to say he's going after a big starting pitcher. Why would he say that?"

"could be the reason why they haven't made much of an overture to Eyre/Park yet."

If they're going after Smoltz, why not round out the bullpen with offers to all ex-studs over the age of 40?

A bullpen of Jamie Moyer, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, and hell, let's bring back Pedro Martinez while we're at it.

Might as well follow the pattern: win the World Series, get back a few years later with the Wheeze Kids. :)

BB - Yeah, each time I've mentioned since the WS that we're obviously seeking Halladay some genius assures me that it can't be true because Rube never mentioned it.

Zolecki - 75% chance we land Halladay today. Happ and Brown.

Be right Todd! 1 Time!

God, Ed Wade is a horrible GM. I know you have to fill positions of need and put a competitive team on the field, but is blowing $10 million of 2010 money on Pedro Feliz and Brandon Lyon going to get the Astros over the hump? They're basically replacing Valverde with Lyon and Tejada with Feliz. I bet they'll be worse next year than last.

I'd jump out the window if my team made moves like that.

On 610, Zo said it was a "35%" chance the Phils get him and it'll likely be before Christmas. Not "75%".

(goes with out saying: the "35%" is an arbitrary number he came up with.)

"Zolecki - 75% chance we land Halladay today. Happ and Brown.

Be right Todd! 1 Time!"

CY- When did he say that? I missed that part, I heard 35%

myno: Don't you have to wait and see what Valverde and Tejada sign for first? Or are you saying Wade should've paid them whatever they wanted just to keep them?

Wade may well look like a dope here, but it seems to me you can't know if he screwed up until: 1. You see what Valverde and Tejada get or 2. You see what kind of year they all have.

Keep in the mind Beerleaguer is the place where posters had a good laugh about what a dope Wade was for trading Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn, who would never hit in the big leagues. Remember?

Not that I'm against trading for Halladay, but I'll play Devil's advocate. They trade Taylor & Happ for Halladay. Maybe they also trade away Blanton to save some money. But, to keep things simple, I'll assume he's still here & I'll assume that he & Moyer round out the starting rotation. Total payroll for 2010 is around $150M.

2010 ends. Werth, Lee, Halladay, Moyer, & Blanton are all FAs. That's $38M off the books for the first 4 guys, plus around $8M for Blanton. But, assume a good $8M to $10M increase in existing salary obligations, due to back-loaded contracts. Also assume that, having made huge increases in payroll over the last 2 years, the Phillies want to keep it around the same amount, or lower, in 2011.

Conclusion: you've just lost 4 of your 5 starting pitchers, including your 2 aces, plus one of your best bats. You've only got $36M to fill all 5 spots. Domonic Brown is still a year away & you've already traded away Michael Taylor. Drabek was good, but not great, at AAA during the season and he didn't look very good in his September call-up. Now what?

Are we willing to accept this very plausible scenario for an increased -- though still unlikely -- chance at winning another World Series?

BAP: And what if passing on Halladay is the difference between winning another WS or not? And then in 2011 the replacements for Lee, Moyer & Blanton all suck?

You can see here this is going.

BAP-please tell us when you're NOT playing "devil's advocate" ;-)


Personally, If we get Halladay, I don't want to talk about 2011.

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