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Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Comments

I love the signing. Gload's got pop and can be used in the outfield or first. Great move that almost makes up for the Castro debacle.

I like him too, but another left handed hitter

so i guess that's a mirrored image?

You can never too many scrappy white guys.

That looks like Dan Uggla in that picture, Gload is a LH batter.

From the last thread: Anybody agree that Rube is gunning for a top tier reliever?(Sherrill, Soriano) I think he'll "bust the budget" either signing/ trading for one, then non-tendering Durbin and Condrey. This bullpen needs major improvement regardless of "limit" 140 mill.. I think Ruben would be going over this number for the right reason. Maybe an extra 5-8 million to revamp the 'pen= 148 million

Gload is a lefty, but has hit lefties well over his career. .298 vs LHP, .279 vs RHP.

Tony D: definitely the most scrappy backup 1b there is, as there's an inverse relationship between home runs and scrappiness/blue collarness/david ecksteinness

Is Gload a switch hitter? Or was the pic at the top of the thread taken the only time he batted right handed?

Carson the pix I see has his name on the shirt and swung left

yeah yeah yeah.

I wouldn't expect Cholly to have much confidence in Gload against lefty pitching despite his career numbers. He's automatic with his L/R matchups.

the pic looks like a LH follow through to me

Robby J: Exactly. I don't know what these fools are talking about.

Maybe it's the ghost of Tom Gload.

I know it has been declared impossible by all the BL rocket scientists, but your Phillies are one of 3 teams in the Halladay sweepstakes, and perhaps even the favorite.

The picture is taken at the end of his swing, that's why the bat is at his right shoulder, guys.

pb asked in the last thread:
"where do find PH stats? I'm on baseball reference and can't find them"

1. Select the Splits tab
2. Choose Career or a particular season
3. Look for the "Defensive Positions" heading and it will be under there

That looks like the finish of a lefthanded swing to me.

Curt yes saw that on mlb rumors yesterday - but today no mention of phils in the running

Halladay is the lead story on Phillies.com with a good piece by Zolecki I plan on discussing today.

donc: I know, right? Carson and Kutztown must have been seeing things.

Yes, JW corrected the picture, but the first one was a RH batter that appeared to be Uggla...chillax everyone, all is well now.

Way to sell me out JW and make yourself look good :)

If it was Offerman it would be a left-handed back swing beaning the cathcer on the head in preparation for bashing the pitcher.


Since it's Gload, it's a left-handed follow through.

Amaro said that he will not be making any big splashes this week. Halladay is a nice dream, but just a dream.

Rube has fixed the bench, now turns his attention to the bullpen. One thing he said yesterday is that under no circumstances will Drabek be in the bullpen next season.

I'm beginning to think that the Phillies are reaping the benefits of back to back WS appearances. If I was a MLB bench player and the money was about the same no matter where I played, playing for the Phillies is now much more desirable than playing for teams like the Fish and the Wahoos.

One thing he said yesterday is that under no circumstances will Drabek be in the bullpen next season.

I'm glad to hear that. If Drabek pans out the way they (and we) are hoping, then moving him to the 'pen at some point this season seems a bit counter-productive.

Every bench must be able to fill these roles adequately:
1) Right handed power bat
2) Left handed power bat
3) Utility infielder
4) Utility outfielder
5) Backup catcher
6) Pinch Runner

Gload fills 2, and 4, and can play 1B as well. Dobbs can't play OF, Gload can. We've got 2 RH bats in Francisco and Castro, 3 LH bats in Schneider, Gload, and Dobbs. Between the 5 guys, we've got those roles covered. That's why Castro's on the team, he's the only utility infielder.

What I don't like about the bench is the lack of speed. Outside of Francisco these guys can't run. Bruntlett couldn't hit be he could field and he wasn't slow around the bases.

But oh well. No such thing as a perfect bench.

Still awfully weak on the bench with right-handers. Francisco is basically it and he is the ONLY guy on the bench with any speed whatsoever.

Wish there was room for a guy like Mayberry. Team needs more then 1 right-handed option (especially when Ben starts in LF for Ibanez).

Fred, indeed. Guys jump at an offer from the Phils, where a few years ago they considered us only after making sure that there were no other offers on the table. Enjoy, because the window is small and shrinking fast.

The good news is that most pitchers are right handed and many bullpens only carry one lefty, usually saved for the Phillies' thunder. Mayberry is still an option if they get desperate.

Martino: Phillies and LHP Ron Mahay have expressed some mutual interest, source says. Talks just in tire-kicking phase, though.

I can't wait to see Manuel trot out a doubleheader lineup with Francisco, Gload, Dobbs, Schneider, AND Castro. better hope we can pitch a shutout in that game...

Isn't Ron Mahay like a 100 years old?

Just read Zo's article about Halladay...If you replace Blanton in the rotation with Doc, the Phils are nearly unbeatable in the postseason, even if Hamels doesn't return to his MVP-level performance. However, that also means the window is basically closed after 2010 (maybe 2011), as many of the big pieces would be FAs at that point. So short-term gratification at the expense of the long-term health of the franchise...That's a tough one for me, but I REALLY want another WFC and this is our best shot.

the one thing I don't get about signing Gload, Castro, and even Schneider (to some degree), is that this is a fair amount of money for a team with a tight budget to spend given that the bullpen is shaping up to be a major weakness.

Gload and Schneider are good players to have around; even though they have pretty obvious flaws, they're still probably slight upgrades at worst. but a bullpen without Park and Eyre is going to be a serious weakness, far more than a mediocre bench would be. I'm not sure Amaro is making the best use of what he claims are limited resources.

it also bugs me that Amaro's giving marginal players a second year seemingly without hesitation, especially since the 2010 Phillies are going to have salary raises pretty much across the board AND are going to be trying to resign Lee.

Maybe we can find someone as dumb as the diamondbacks. Like San Diego or someone.

Send Blanton to them. Send Brown and Gose to TOR along with a Pitching prospect we get from team X.

Unlikely, but possible. Do you think thats enough for TOR assuming team X sends a decent pitching prospect?

ae - I think one of the things that says is that after the 2010 season this team is going to undergo some MAJOR changes...I seriously doubt Werth gets re-signed, for instance, and Taylor or Brown will fill that spot. Blanton's likely gone (if he's not traded this offseason) and will probably be replaced with Drabek. Lee probably won't re-sign, as I don't think the Phils will commit the dollars/years he'll be looking for.

I shouldn't have read Zolecki's article. Now, getting Halladay seems possible and it got my hopes up. Halladay, Lee, Hamels is a pretty darn good 1-3. Too good, so it probably won't happen.

Damn you Todd Zolecki!

Ron Mahay is 38, will turn 39 in June 2010. 2009 statline with KC and MIN:
ERA/IP/K/BB/WHIP/AVG
4.29/50.1/42/22/1.67/.295

He split equal time facing RH and LH batters last year but was much more effective against lefties. Splits are big, just look here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=mahayro01&year=Career&t=p

If they're looking to replace Eyre as their LOOGY behind Romero, this guy's actually pretty good. He's not hopeless against righties either. Career numbers are actually better against righties than Eyre, and they're both about the same against lefties.

So Mahay would actually be an upgrade over Eyre.

Looks like Peter Gammons is moving to the mlb network. Huge improvement. Can't wait to see him there.

Chris,

"Blanton's likely gone (if he's not traded this offseason) and will probably be replaced with Drabek. Lee probably won't re-sign, as I don't think the Phils will commit the dollars/years he'll be looking for."

Note that Moyer's also likely gone. Drabek's only 1 guy, and no one else seems ready in the minors. It looks like the shopping list next winter is going to be starters, and more starters. Especially since the window closes hard the next year, with Howard and Hamels being free agents.

Happ, Kendrick, Bastardo and Gose for Halliday.

They're not going to get a better offer from anyone else. I smell a Johan Santana quality steal on the horizon.

Billingsly - Halladay does actually seem like a legitimate possibility still. RAJ has been saying that they're not really pursuing it, but all the "insiders" continue to insist that the Phils are one of the teams following the situation closely. I think the Granderson trade probably makes it unlikely the Yanks pursue Halladay, and the BoSox seem more focused on their lineup than improving their rotation (and I think their interest all but disappears if the NYY aren't involved). That would leave the Phillies as the only team that satisfies all of Doc's wishes (trains in Florida, perennial winner, etc.) and has show an interest...but I think the Jays would rather keep him than trade him for an "inferior" package of players like the Twins did with Santana.

I am ready to welcome Doc to Philly, and if it meant getting .20-.80C on the dollar to offload Blanton, so be it. Maybe they can get an 18-20 3b prospect from whatever organization we trade him to. Then the Phils can stash in the minors till year 3 of the Polanco deal and work him in then.

Oh and I like seeing guys that seem to kill the Phils get signed...is Tim Redding available? Maybe the Phils can sign him then sell 'em to Japan for some kobe beef or sea urchin.

I miss E-Brunt already. Juan Castro is officially my least favorite Phillie from now on. He's not in the HoF! Twice!

Who knows what Rube is doing? First, no deals this week, then signs Gload. Tells us no major deals but insiders say the Phils are in on Halladay.

ChisinVT~ You're right major changes are coming in the future. All of the things you mention are valid. Plus the starting infield will all age together.

I too want another WFC. I want Halladay just so the Yanks or Bosox don't get him. If we do, and everyone staysd healthy, WS, here we come. I like winning, been a phan over 40 years. Too many losing seasons over that stretch. At 51, I want to see another victory parade. Once their window closes who knows how long it'll take to get back if ever.

Bad News - I forgot about Moyer as well...1 nice thing about the likely changes coming after 2010/11 is that the Phils will have a lot more payroll flexibility. If you replace Werth and Ibanez in the next couple years with Taylor and Brown (as long as both live up to expectations) and you put a couple inexpensive young arms in the rotation (like Drabek), you've got a lot of money to play with. I think they keep Hamels long-term, as long as he bounces back this season. Howard I'm not sure about. Rollins will probably be gone after the 2011 option is picked up...So the Phils will have some money to play with next offseason, when Lee, Halladay, Webb, etc. will all be FAs. Who knows what direction the team goes at that point? For the coming season, though, I would love to see the Phils go all-out for another WFC and let the chips fall where they may after that.

The Jays aren't going to contend in 2010 and they know it. They also have no ability to resign Halladay after 2010.

That being said, do they settle for a draft pick and hope they get one guy that makes it to the major leagues, or do they shed payroll and take two young, inexpensive pitchers that could immediately move into their rotation, along with a couple of mid level prospects on the side?

They stand nothing to gain by keeping Halliday, and with the Yankees (and likely the Red Sox) out of the picture, the time is now to make the deal. They've already played hardball with Amaro and come out with egg on their face.

Prediction: Halliday to the Phillies before New Years Day.

The Gload signing means the Phillies' bench is set, and there is no more room for the likes of Austin Kearns, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis, Geoff Jenkins, Eric Hinske, and Garrett Atkins. Beerleaguer will suffer as a result of the loss in discussion material.

Andy: Welcome back (assuming it's the same Andy). Hope everything's alright.

Exactly, Chris. Some things have to work out, but the great exodus of 2010/2011+ doesn't have to be a bad thing. Perhaps some "favorite Phillies" leave town, but a smart orrganization can make it work.

Mahay would NOT be an upgrade over Eyre. When a guy is 38 years old, I'm not interested in his career numbers. I'm interested in his numbers from the last couple seasons. Mahay's numbers against left-handers have been only so-so over the last couple seasons & his overall numbers were terrible last year.

I'm all in favor of looking at bounce-back candidates who might be good bargains. But a guy who will turn 39 next season is not my idea of a good bounce-back candidate.

The best part about all of this talk is that I now have a confidence in the FO doing that right thing for the team that I never did before. Shows what getting to the WS can do for your credibility, even if it does make for a short window...

Godfather: Dobbs can't play the outfield? He played more innings in the outfield last year than he did at third base or first base, and he played twice as many innings in the outfield as Gload.

Also, why do people take GMs at face value? How exactly would it be to Amaro's benefit to say he's trying to make a big splash? I'm not necessarily saying he's going after Halladay, but the fact that he's not saying so to the media means next to nothing. Nobody knew he was in on Cliff Lee until the day of the trade.

DH PHils: I'm with you. We all read the same stories and try to interpret every word Amaro says, but it all should be taken with a big grain of salt. Why would he telegraph anything?

There was some hand wringing on here yesterday about how it seems that Amaro isn't doing anything at the meetings, and he goes and signs Gload. Granted, Gload is no Halladay, but it was a move seemingly out of nowhere.

DH Phils: Good point about Rube. If we've learned anything about him it's that he plays it close to the vest. He seems to be good at keeping a lid on things until the right moment. It's hard to be sure but he seemed to leak certain details at opportune times when he was negotiating for Doc this summer. Then out of nowhere he pounced on Clifford. Having said that, I'd be shocked if we end up with Halladay. OMG. Lee, Halladay and a resurgent Hamels(that's what I expect anyway) at the top of the rotation. That wouldn't be fair.

bleh. someone wake me up when we sign a pitcher.

First of all, thanks for switching the picture, JW. I'll remember that.

Secondly, re: Halladay.... I posted yesterday that a few Yankee fans with whom I talk are convinced that the Yankees and only the Yankees are capable of signing Halladay. They're so non-chalant about it to the point where I want to beat their pointy little head with a blunt object and then pour lemon juice into the wounds. Their arguments: 1. Halladay is jonesing to join the Yankees (the inference being that EVERY player's fantasy is to be on the Yankees). 2. Only the Yankees have anything in their system that the Blue Jays want. 3. No other team has the brains to pull off a trade of that magnitude.

BAP: Both are old and both get out lefties, but here's why Mahay would be an improvement over Eyre:

Eyre IP past 2 seasons: 65

Mahay IP past 2 seasons: 115

Yanks fans are amazing sometimes. They don't get the concept that if you eat salary you are able to pull off better trades. And their prospects are always all-world (many fan bases suffer from this).

If our prospects were Yankees prospects we'd be able to trade for Halladay for the rotation, Soriano for the bullpen and Adrian Gonzalez to be our bat off of the bench and still have enough left to pick up a little help midseason.

i missed the last thread or two but jsut wanted to say my peice on the Granderson deal.

I think the Yanks made a bad trade and the Tigers/DBacks definitely look to have gotten the better of it...BUT the Yanks aren't a normal team and this trade will probably work out great for them when they go sign whoever the top CF FA is in 3 years(or sooner) once granderson's time is up.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Austin Jackson back in NYY once his six years are up adn will make this trade almost risk'less.

Yankee prospects are notoriously overhyped...Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy were supposed to be the next great Yankee rotation and more than likely not a single one of them will be starting next year. The only player in their system at AA or higher who looks like he'll be an impact player is Jesus Montero. Austin Jackson was supposed to be AMAZING, and he just finished a season at AAA with 4 HRs and around 140 Ks.

How many runs do we have to be up by, how late in game, and how far away does Howard's spot in the lineup have to be for us to sub Gload as a defensive replacement?

Per Yahoo sports:

Lee's agent, Darek Braunecker, says that he and the team have had "very preliminary talks" about an extension.

ChrisinVT: It's not like Phillies prospects like Antonio "The Next Santana" Bastardo are hyped on Beerleaguer, right?

I think they did a nice job of hyping Kennedy, but then didn't trade him when he was at peak hype. I think the other guys are good.

They won't likely trade Happ as he's dirt cheap. If a starter is traded it'll be Hoss Blanton.

Rosenthal reports Wolf signs w/ Brewers for 3/$29.75mil. More than a little steep.

clout - I'm not saying that fanbases in general don't overvalue their team's prospects, but the Yankees prospects are overhyped by the media in general. Nobody in the media was talking about Bastardo as the next Santana, but tons of people at ESPN and other places were referring to Joba as the Yankees' "next Roger Clemens." Which is just flat-out ridiculous.

As for Hughes, he may end up being a solid ML starter, but to me he looks like an average starter or a solid bullpen guy, but that's about it. Joba will never be "special" as a starter, and based on his struggles this year he may never even be replacement-level. Kennedy will be lucky to stick as a 5th starter.

And Wolf at 10 mil per is just crazy...Maybe the market isn't as weak as it's looked.

The Bastardo/Santana reference was from Jayson Stark, not BL.

ChrisinVT: You are right about that. Yankees and Mets prospects are hyped throughout the media. Even BA isn't immune. You can pretty much lop 15% off the top in projections for any Yankee or Met prospect.

Clout: I take issue with your characterization of Bastardo as the next Santana. I believe most BLers actually thought Santana may one day be the next Bastardo.

Actually the Bastardo-Santana comparison did come from someone on ESPN. I think Jason Stark reported that he was "drawing comparisons" to Santana because of his stocky build, 94 mph fastball and decent change.

Forget Santana. Bastardo, if he's lucky, may one day turn out to be mentioned in the same breath as the immortal and incomparable Joe Savery.

Jack: I think you have it in the wrong order.

I can't wait to see Manuel trot out a doubleheader lineup with Francisco, Gload, Dobbs, Schneider, AND Castro. better hope we can pitch a shutout in that game...

ae, IIRC, Jim Fregosi once said that sometimes you have to take a "strategic loss" during the season in order to get your regulars a rest, and have them fresh for the stretch run. Quite frankly, they won the division by 6 games in 2009, and while hindsight is alweays 20-20, I think they probably could have afforded to rest some of the regulars, esp. Utley, earlier in the season.


"Plus the starting infield will all age together."

Mr. Patrone, I'm actually someone who is not too worried about that. The Yankees just beat the Phillies in the WS with two of their starting infielders at 33 and 35 years of age. Their catcher was 37, and their DH 35 and and OF 35.

Utley, Howard and Rollins are elite players (anyone disagree?). As such, I'm not too concerned about age related declines from them.

Look at it this way. Assuming age realted decline by the age of 35 for the three of them, let's ass-u-me that they all decline 25-30% in production by then.

Using 30%:

For Howard, that would mean about 32 HR and about 98 RBI, still placing him in the top half of all 1B.

For Utley, that would mean about 22 HR and 70 RBI. He would fall from being the top 1-2 to being in the top 10 among 2B.

For Rollins, it's a bit more difficult to assess what his value would be because he hits leadoff and is not considered a "run producer" the way the Utley and Howard are considered such. Still, he was - despite his worst year since 2003 - still 4th among SS in R, 3rd in HR and 4th in RBI. So, overall he might fall to the middle of the pack among SS, but as long as he can continue to flash the leather, that might be acceptable production as long as some of the other talent (Brown, Taylor, etc.) show up and start doing the heavy lifting.

Of course, assuming the Phils are going to be able to keep all of them until then is a stretch, but I'm merely addressing the "decline" they might experience.

I had to laugh. Listening to WFAN this morning Evan Roberts (total ass clown) proposed an economical solution to the Mets problems that involved signing Lackey and DeRosa and trading John Mayne for Corey Hart. I don't know about the trade but I wonder if the Wilpons think that adding Lackey and DeRosa is economical. I hope they do sign Lackey. He reminds me of a typical free agent trap. Yeah he's good but he'll probably get overpaid because he's far and away the best starter on the FA market. The best of a weak class always seems to hit the jackpot.

The only group more deluded than NY fans is the NY media.

You're right Joe. It just warms my heart to see that Mets fans apparently have that disgusting mindset just about as badly as Yankees fans do.

I'm not trading Antonio Bastardo! To hell with Roy Halladay!

Kevin Correia is reportedly going to be non-tendered. He apparently turned down the latest contract offer from the Pads. Interestingly, his 2009 splits were very weird. Certain periferals seemd to be better AWAY from Petco - better K/BB, K/9, HR/9, though others like WHIP were worse.

Based on him rejecting SDP, he probably wants more than the Phils would offer to come in and compete for the 5th spot, but he's be worht an invite.

AWH~

I wasn't thinking that the infield'd numbers would decline but more like there aren't many (or any)suitable replacements currently down on the pharm. That's why I'd like Rube to go for again now. With just a little tweaking, we could send a deep message to baseball: It's gonna very difficult to beat the Phila. Phillies.

Correia gets an "eh" from the Beard. Plus, he's under 30.

Correia pitched a lot differently last year than in the rest of his career. threw a lot less of his fastball (only 51.7%, down from the 70s when he first came up) and change and a lot more of his slider (30.3%, 2nd most among NL starters) and curve (10.5%, up from hardly ever earlier in his career).

looks like the big difference between his good seasons (06, 07, 09) and his bad seasons (08) is whether or not his slider is effective. he could be an interesting guy to have as a swingman (a la Park or Durbin in years past) if he's not too expensive.

he was worse on the road than at Petco (by about 0.50 ERA), but it wasn't as stark as Eaton (who was a full run worse in 03 and more than a run and a half worse in 05).

Don't love the Gload signing, but will say that the bench is looking decent for next season. With Gload able to play first and the corner outfield spots, that gives the Phils decent depth at every position (save shortstop). I hope that Charlie will take advantage of it, and I'm guessing he will as a lot of the subs would be ok platoon options when it comes time to rest the bigger pieces (the Phils can actually trot out an entirely left-handed hitting line-up).

I do wonder if the Phils have explored trades involving Francisco. I love the guy as a fourth outfielder, but a league average player that's under team control for 4 more years might bring back a decent return. The Phils could likely replace him with Mayberry and then Taylor later in the season.

I don't see the difference between Gload and Dobbs. Could this mean Dobbs is on the move?

I don't think Gload plays third.

Gload can play RF. Dobbs really can't. That's the point about the OF.

As for Mahay vs. Eyre, Mahay had a "bad" year last year with Kansas City then pitched very well for Minnesota as a lefty specialist, which would be his primary role in Philadelphia (I put bad in quotation marks because it's really an below average year, but not awful). In 2007/2008 he was actually very very good against both sides of the plate, better than Eyre who was primarily effective against lefties but was hit hard by righties in 2008. Eyre actually put up similar numbers to Mahay in 2007. Remember, Eyre's going to be 38 next year. It's not like he's younger, really.

Oh, yeah, I forgot to comment on the thread topic.

Who did they sign?

I'm with loctastic: Wake me when they sign a pitcher.

What's this about?

5:46pm: ESPN.com's Jayson Stark hears that the Phillies do indeed have interest in Marquis

Does anyone know how start a new thread or reply to a thread in mlbtraderumos forums?

I created an account, but every time I try to do anything I get a screen telling me I don't have "permission"

Has your account been reviewed and accepted yet? Once you sign up, they send you an email containing a link you must follow. Once you follow the link, they tell you that they will review your account and approve it shortly. After my initial sign up, it took about 10 minutes.

Correia as a reliever, yes. Correia as a starter, no.

Phillies Red -- thanks so much didn't spot in my spam

Nobody has anything to say about Marquis? Yeah I'm not buying it either unless he's coming at a huge discount. Because why try and deal Blanton to sign Marquis, makes no sense at all.

pb - The Phillies also have interest in Roy Halladay, John Smoltz, Ron Mahay, Brandon Lyon, that Cuban guy, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre...

Let's hope Marquis is just another name on that long list of random guys we won't actually get.

Marquis might be the answer to not having a second righty pinch hitter. He's a better hitter than Castro. But I've never been a fan of his pitching.

Marquis essentially equals Joe Blanton. Both are durable and consistent, with little downside risk, but fairly limited upside. Just about every starting rotation in the majors can use 1 starter like this. But starting the season with 2 of them is too much of a concession to mediocrity.

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