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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

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Batting ninth, number $60, Roy Halladay.

OMG OMG OMG

(finally appropriate)

Considering what we gave up for 1/2 of a season of Lee, I think we're getting an OK return for him. It was clear we weren't going to get Halladay until we moved Lee due to the prospects angel.

Glad we kept Brown. He'll fit in nicely in 2011.

Sophist: Why didn't the Phils simply non-tender Blanton?

G-Town: because they screwed the pooch.

What? That's not a real answer. You're so worked up about this. There are reasons for tendering Blanton. What do you think they were? Why did Amaro choose to tender him rather than move him for partial salary and keep Lee or simply non-tender him? Surely you'd have thought harder about this.

Maybe Halladay can teach Cole how to throw that cutter instead of that lame curve ball he served up there now.

CJ: Now who's being hyperbolic? For example, I like the Polanco deal. It's a definite offensive upgrade over Feliz w/out sacrificing defense or too much money.

Roy Halladay will be wearing red pinstripes.

The best pitcher in baseball has pretty much forced a trade to Philly where he signed a below-market extension.

After all of the Schillings... and Rolens... etc... we finally get the guy. And he wants to be here.

It's a good time to be a Phillies fan!

Thrilled to get Doc, disappointed to see Lee go.

So what happens if the Halladay deal now somehow falls through...we be fvcked in that case.

CJ said in the previous thread that someone should be keeping track of the hyperbolic statements being made in the midst of this trade. As the resident Little Miss Sunshine of BL, I have. The three best that spring to mind right away:

1) "This is a move that sets franchises back 10 years."

2) "This is one of the worst moves in the history of the franchise."

3) "Roy Halladay is no better than Cliff Lee."

I'm sure there are more, but I'm not sure I can stomach looking back through all of the comments.

Boom.

'Newest Phillie' graphic to come next post?

Sophist: I have thought on this, & I cannot come up w/ a justifiable reason for keeping Blanton over Lee, even if he walked after '10. You always have good insight, though, so please do share.

Because the Phils felt an acute need to re-stock the minors, and there was no way to do that + move the requisite amount of salary without trading Lee.

FWIW, the Stark article I posted about the Phils' minor league system does place both Aumont and Gillies in their updated top 10.

"If I had to re-do my top 10, Brown would obviously be 1," Manuel said. "But with 2-3-4 gone, I might skip Anthony Gose up to [No.] 2, have Trevor May 3, Valle 4. Cosart is now 5, followed by Aumont at 6. Now that's probably lower than [fellow Baseball America prospect guru)] Jim Callis would have Aumont, but I really like Cosart, Valle and May. Valle was having a big winter in Mexico as one of the youngest players there, showing a lot of power. I suppose Aumont really could go anywhere from 3-to-6, but I feel pretty firm on Gose at 2. The people I have talked to since doing the Phils' top 10 all thought I had Gose too low."

And Ramirez supposedly has the highest ceiling of all 3, but is also the furthest away from the majors.

The Phils didn't get a bad haul from the M's, they just didn't get equal value to Drabek/Taylor/D'Arnaud. Which they shouldn't have...Halladay's a better pitcher and they're getting him for multiple seasons, not just one.

Why not just non-tender Blanton?

There are at least two possible reasons, both of them perfectly valid. Reason 1: the decision about Blanton had to be made before Amaro knew we would be getting Halladay. If he non-tenders Blanton & we don't get Halladay, then we're really up a major creek. Reason 2: we've dealt 7 of our top 10 prospects within the last 6 months; non-tendering Blanton does nothing to replenish the farm system.

I'll take bets right now on which will be the better pitcher over the life of the Halladay Pinstripes days, Lee or Halladay. $5 will get you $10 it will be Doc!

Sorry, forgot to put the rest of the top 10 up there as well:

"The rest of Manuel's top 10: Bastardo 7th, Gillies at No. 8, Santana 9th and a healthy debate about who's 10th -- tools-laden outfielder Jiwan James or radar-gun hero Scott Mathieson, who is just making it back from his second Tommy John surgery."

I still refuse to believe this is a done deal until Halladay takes the ball in DC for the Phils on April 5, 2010.

Until then, based on the previous three days' activities, it's still speculation to me.

We'll never know for sure, but I really dont think a deal worth up to 5yr/$100mil is not 'below market'.

If u take CC's deal - the most comparable and recent Ace contract - he made $161 over 7 @$23mil a year. He was 5 years younger going into his free agency year than Halladay would have been. So say Halladay gets 2 less years at the same yearly price - 5yr/$115mil . $3mil a year for the next 5 years is worth our 2-3-4 prospects?

well whatever, like i said, we will never know. Halladay will be filthy and there is no reason the Phils shouldn't be back in the World Series for the 3rd straight year.

ESPN Tweet: @jaysonst Here's why Phillies announced Lee trade but not Halladay (yet): Bud Selig still has to sign off on the $6M going from Toronto to Philly 18 minutes ago

The Phillies got Tim Lincecum?

Oh you mean Halladay, not the best pitcher in baseball.

Dan: I'll take that bet if we include Taylor, Drabek, and D'Arnaud on one side of the ledger and Gillies, Aumont, and Ramirez on the other. We can determine the winner by the combined WAR of the respective group. Of course, by the end of Halladay's deal we'll all be using Chinese Renminbi instead of greenbacks, but I'll keep a Hamilton under my pillow for you just in case I lose.

Jiwan may be ranked too high, but he's a guy to watch this year to see if the conversion from pitcher to OFer works out. "toolsy" to say the least. Was recruited by U of F. to play WR, but opted to sign with Phils as a pitcher, despite, I believe, the Phils wanting him in the OF. Similarly, Domonic Brown was recruited by Miami U. to play WR.

thephaithful: thank you, that's what I've been trying to say all day.

euphronius: Lincecum just got some more competition for the CY in the NL.

Lincecum is the best pitcher now, but Doc has a longer track record of success in a much tougher league/division.

We shall see.

Just saw on Metsblog that Mets are thinking 6 yrs for Bay.. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket They're getting bid up by other teams, I'm sure.

I don't care about any of the naysayers out there, and I don't care that we have to give away cliff lee, it's ROY FREAKING HALLADAY, and I am EXCITED!

GT - BAP (1) reason I think predominates while (2) soothes it a bit. Amaro had to tender Blanton a contract before I was anywhere sure of Halladay. Story says, he tried to move him before the deadline and was unsuccessful. You think that's a risk Amaro should have taken? I'm not entirely sure Blanton is non-tendered if Halladay is a sure thing anyway.

Best pitcher in the AL East > Best pitcher in the NL West.

We'll see what kind of numbers Halladay puts up in the NL and then see who's the best...Now he doesn't face the DH, gets to face the pitcher 3 times a game, and the only offense in the NL comparable to the Yanks/Sox/Angels/best of the AL is the one that will be playing behind him. I wouldn't be shocked by a 25 win season.

All this "Lincecum is better than Halladay" stuff over the last few days/weeks got me thinking, so I looked up stats for each. I knew Lincecum was amazing, but holy cow is he great. I'm curious to see what Halladay would do in the NL and away from the toughest division in baseball though. I feel the NL East is still tougher than the NL West, but the comparisons will be much more apt now.

For those still talking about the Phillies not getting enough for Lee, here is a post from FanGraphs addressing Lee’s trade value. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lees-trade-value

ChrisInVT: It looks like you are 3 minutes faster than me. Kudos!

It's just another day in baseball heaven!

Bite me, St. Louis...

One thought - given the way Santana bent Minaya over the desk a few years ago, Bay probably can ask for just about anything he damn well wants.

One fear - the never-been-to-AA prospects we got for Lee never pan out and Lee joins Abreu as a continuing beerleauger dispute.

One expectation - Halladay will eat the National League alive.

One more time - Lincecum needs a haircut.

All Dave Cameron says in that article is "I don't get it". I agree, but it's not real insightful in terms of explaining Lees trade value.

All I can assume about Lee is that we didn't give a lot for him, and didn't get a lot for him, so maybe there's something we outsiders are missing. Amaro isn't an idiot, and I'm certain he called around before settling with the M's. Maybe this is one case where scouting beats stats.

b_a_p: Sorry, but I don't buy the "restock the minors" argument. It's not a "right" or "wrong" issue so much a basic difference in philosophy. I look at the Phillies as a team that needs to maximize their winning potential right now, not hedge their bets in hopes of merely remaining "competitive". The latter sounds a lot like the Braves of the '90s & early '00s, & I consider those teams a prime example of failed potential. Quite frankly, if the Phillies really wanted to remain competitive they should never have traded 2 of their top 3 prospects for Halladay & (seemingly) crippled their short-term payroll flexibility in doing so.

Regardless, as it stands right now the Phillies simply cannot compete w/ the best of the AL (witness their interleague record vs. NYY, BOS & LAA over the past several years). Personally, I think the Phillies are lucky to have faced TB in the '08 Series, or we'd be looking at the 2-time defending runner-ups right now.

Rube deserves points for being a decisive GM, but he needs to balance that decisiveness w/ a little bit of patience. Signing Blanton was a knee-jerk move that hamstrung the ball club when the opportunity of a lifetime -- that of having a Halladay/Lee/Hamels rotation -- suddenly came calling. Similarly, the contracts he decisively offered to Moyer & Ibañez have/will hurt the Phillies financially.

Again, this is a simple, philosophical difference of opinion, but if I were in charge of a team such as the Phillies no amount of prospects (& they're all in A ball fer *bleeps* sake!) or a paltry $9 million would keep me from realizing the opportunity the Phillies had this season.

Disclaimer: Yes, I realize Rube has his ownership overlords & he cannot spend money that isn't his. That said, I'm as ticked off w/ ownership as I am w/ the GM. All that talk floating around Beerleaguer last season about the Phillies being like the Yankees or Red Sox was bullsh*t, because everyone here knows for a fact that New York or Boston would have jumped all over the chance to have both Lee & Halladay in their rotation, money be damned.

radar-gun hero Scott Mathieson

I look forward to the video game version of Radar Gun Hero. Expecting refurbished TV sales to soar. Don't think we'll see Jamie Moyer on the cover.

Rosenthal: Holdup in Holliday trade was TOR concern over Brett Wallace's shoulder. He had an MRI, everything checked out fine. Goes to TOR for Taylor.

Should read Halladay.

I'm still grieving over the loss of Lee, even while happy to have acquired Halladay. I get why we can't have both, but I'm still sad about his departure. I hope he does well in Seattle and doesn't feel too badly toward the Phillies. Even if, according to mlbonxm - the guy who works with Kevin Kennedy (I can't keep them all straight) - Cliff Lee learned about the trade on TV. Ouch. (FWIW, they also thought Amaro could have shopped Lee around for more, but they admitted they don't really know what happened.)

Santana's got 7 years guaranteed at that price whereas it looks like we've committed to only 4 years for Halladay, the first year of which we're effectively paying him Lee money, and only more if he keeps pitching well.

oh yeah. and Halladay's better than C.C.

yo, new thread

plus an apparently-broken typepad

There is only 1 team in the NL that has the financial wherewithal to compete with the Yanks/Sox, and that is the Mets.

THANK GOD FOR OMAR MINAYA.

Wait! We're forgetting a few things:

Hamels can't possibly be as bad in 2010 as he was in 2009.
Ditto Lidge
Our big boppers are still in their primes.
A full season of Halladay vs. a half season of Lee.
Full season of Fransisco.
A 3rd baseman who can actually hit.

Overall, this team is quite a bit better on paper than the 2009 squad which made it to the WS, and better on paper than the 2008 squad which won it.

However we got here, I'm really, REALLY happy with where we are.

Dan: you're much too positive to be a Phillies phan. ;-)


I don't think typepad could handle the trade either.

Dan FTW.

now we just need a 5th starter and enough bullpen options that someone at a given moment will hopefully be hot.

Yep BAP, I had Bud being annoyed that his nap time was being disturbed.

Dan, ditto!

The undisputed best team in the NL just got better for the upcoming season. Considering the history of this franchise, we really don't have a lot to complain about.

FWIW My current theory on Lee's depressed trade value is that the potential availability of the younger Josh Johnson led some teams to save their bullets.

JBird: Not a bad theory.

I had to leave TGP blog, because the negativity and groupthink there is unbearable. This is awful, we were raped, etc., etc.

We just acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball for the foreseeable future, and quite frankly, Philadelphia: your reaction to the trade sucks.

There, I said it.

I understand we wanted more for Lee. Totally. But we didn't give more and didn't get more. Perhaps there's something about Lee we don't know.

I understand we didn't want to give up so much for Roy, but you can't get him for free. Yes, the Mets got Santana for less, but his contract extension was double what Roy's was and it would appear that the Twins aren't all that smart in hindsight, now, wouldn't it?

So, I can understand having mixed feeling about the entire thing, but one thing's for certain: we got Roy Halladay. And we controlled where not one, but two, CY award winning pitchers went in baseball.

Find the silver lining somewhere.

I was excited about Michael Taylor. Bummed to see him go.

AWESOME

Oh, and another thing while I'm all fired up: for years Phillies fans whined that the team would never have the guys to make the big trade and ONLY went the value village route. Now the team is going for it and I'm reading comments from people who say RAJ should be fired for NOT going to VV avenue?

I swear, this fanbase is so fickle and spoiled--we really are turning into Red Sox fans.

thephaithful: Where do you get a 5 year/$100M contract?

2010: $9.75M
2011: $20M
2012: $20M
2013: $20M
2014: $20M vesting option

That's just $69.75M guaranteed from the Phils (plus $6M from Toronto). C.C. Sabathia signed a 7-year, $161M contract with every cent guaranteed. Johan Santana has 4 years guaranteed left on his deal for $98.5M. Even John Lackey has more guaranteed money coming than Halladay at $82.5M.

That should say "have the guts to make the big trade" but I guess guys works, too.

Off topic-- I had no idea Gose was a pitcher in college. Supposedly, he had/has electric breaking stuff. Is there ever a chance that he becomes a LHP? BTW, count me as ecstatic about Halladay. Let me be the first to say:: Cliff WHO?

HH: I understand your vent. From reading the posts the last couple days the people here that are upset with the trade isn't for the most part because we traded Lee. It is because we gave up Lee + our 2,3 & 4 prospects to get him. Some people would rather have kept Lee and the kids, while taking our shot in the market next offseason at signing Lee and if not just collect our 2 picks then go after Halladay, Beckett, Cain, etc..

I WAS upset with the trade, BUT now am alright with it.

hear, hear doubleh. what i'm especially dreading is every time next year when we lose a game where Lee would have appeared in the mythical Halladay/Lee rotation, someone somewhere will try to use it as evidence that this was a horrible trade.

doubleh: It's not that this fanbase is fickle... it's that certain people can't help it but bitch and moan about anything and everything the Phillies do.

You're right... the hypocrites hated the Value Village and now they hate getting the big ticket. Can't have it both ways... unless you like to complain about everything.

"Let me be the first to say:: Cliff WHO?"

Whoooaaa, easy there. Without Cliff Lee, we don't make the WS last year. So by saying "Cliff Who" is blatent disrespect. But with you on the happiness for Halladay.

Now they just need to go sign Wang.

Gose was a pitcher in HS. Allegedly hit 95.

Cliff Who? Cliff Lee. A guy that'll never have to buy a beer in Philly if I'm around.

Cliff Lee is a good dude and a quality pitcher and doesn't deserve to be so downgraded by some on here. He should still be in the Phillies rotation. The money spent on him next year would only have increased the brand name value of the Phillies which would provide tremendous financial security for the owners in their old age (whether they actually need it or not). As the national Phillies brand value and following increase with a power team, that would aid the Phillies organization tremendously in their next deal for tv and radio contracts or even consider starting their own broadcast system. They would share increasing revenue from increased road crowds. Not keeping him for another year was short sighted to what the long term goals of the Phillies franchise and brand name should be.

Also, Alex Anthopoulos is 32 and a year older than me, and the GM of a major league baseball team. If there's anything truly upsetting to me about this trade, that's it.

He says Halladay is the best player the franchise has ever had.

After he gets his free agent deal I don't think Lee will need your help donc.

FWIW: the Jays see Brett Wallace as a First Baseman.

Gose 97 mph - HS.Clock. Gillies,Gose & Lopes' watch.

By the way... after all the talk of Wallace being a 3B... he had already been moved to first by the A's and the Blue Jays see him as a 1B as well.

This was mentioned before, but I can't help but wonder if the biggest loser in all of this end up being Cliff Lee. The M's have no reason not to throw him an extensive amount in their one-year push for the playoffs, which could put an undoubted strain on his arm. Now I am in no way wishing injury on him, he is one of my favorites to ever don the bloodstripes, but I wonder if his big contract from the Yanks is not as big as it might have been after a year of rigorous use?

Cliff lee pitched the most innings in baseball last year. I think he can handle it.

I said Cliff WHO? b/c I'm ready to move on.. WITH Halladay. When you see that Lee will pitch to a 4.25 ERA, you'll be ready too..even if you adjust it for league, factor in ballpark, 4.15

Halladay will take #34.

Deutsche Plan: Stark reported that Lee was very upset at being dealt and plans to use this as motivation.

Bottom line... I think the Phils asked Lee and/or his agent if they could work out an extension right now that would include a discount. Lee and/or his agent at least gave some indication they'd rather not.

As soon as that happened, Phils turned their attention to Halladay.

Just, you know, to add insult to injury.

Well... through all my disappointment as this process moved along, seeing Roy F-in Halladay hold up a Phillies jersey just brough a huge smile to my face.

And they gave Roy Cliff's #. Bad karma there...

Rube says moving Cliff was a baseball decision and did not want to leave the cupboard bare. Says it's not the way to do business in baseball.

Try telling that to the Yankees. LOL.

Amaro says... Lee was moved BECAUSE of the prospect replenishment. Not cash. Says "that's not the way to do business"

BS???

My most vivid Halladay memory...

May 18th, 2008 when Halladay came in to pitch 2.1 innings of relief after the 2nd rain delay of the game. I hated him that day.

RAJ basically just said that the guys they got from Seattle are comparable to what they gave up to Toronto.

Reuben Amaro sounds like a politician ... or a laundramat worker he's so good at spin!

CJ-
That day Roy was a man among boys, and I was really glad he was in the AL.

Can't wait to see it every 5th day.

CJ - I was there and waited through that whole delay. The sun came out, it was beautiful, and he shut us down. Truly a sight to behold.

Well, now the Joe Blanton rumors make perfect sense. Amaro decided he needed to restock his farm system if he was going to make this trade for Roy Halladay. And he's right, the farm system was gutted for both pitchers. So he tries to move Blanton, who's making close to the same amount as Lee, but discovers that no one's willing to give him good talent for Kentucky Joe.

Teams probably tell him they want Hamels instead, he says no (smart move). So he looks at his biggest trade piece. He doesn't want to tamper with his offense because he has no one to step up in the outfield or infield. So he moves Lee, since with Halladay he's got an embarrassment of riches in the rotation. Lee brings back equivalent talent for what's lost to Cleveland. End of story.

The moment nothing came up for Blanton and Lee refuses to negotiate an extension, Amaro decided to move Lee.

Dude sounds like he just got released from prison.

Hamels has been lost a bit in all of this? He hasn't always shown himself to be a consummate "pro," as of yet. Wonder how he reacts to playing 2nd fiddle, yet again? Methinks he was hoping to be the MAN after 2010.

I hope he, too, uses it all as motivation.

I think I saw Stark report that there's hope that Halladay's work ethic and competitiveness will rub off on Hamels.

There's also talk that Halladay "fits" better with the Phils clubhouse than Lee.

I love Cliff Lee... and I love what he did for us, getting us to another World Series... but I love Roy Halladay more.

"There's also talk that Halladay "fits" better with the Phils clubhouse than Lee."

CJ: Would you care to source said "talk"? Was it via Stark as well? Halladay probably never even set foot in the Phillies clubhouse until today, so I'm curious as to how such conclusions are arrived at.

Anyone who thinks Cliff Lee is a more desirable pitcher than Roy Halladay should be shot for the crime of extreme stupidity.

Right now, I want to see what the Braves do. They've got a need for an offensive bat, and they've got a big trade chip in Derek Lowe. Anaheim's an obvious target since they just lost John Lackey. The Yankees may also feel they need more pitching. Thing is, that's about it for trade partners. Atlanta isn't going to trade Lowe in the same division, so the Mets are out. Boston doesn't need him.

You want a ridiculous trade? Lowe to Chicago for Milton Bradley. THAT would be an awful deal for Atlanta.

Lowe turns 37 next summer and his ERA+ was 88 last year. His ERA was over 5 for most of the season. I wonder what they could get for him besides salary help. In his 4 years previous his ERA+ was 120 so maybe there's some hope. He was absolutely nasty in that opening start against the Phils last year.

The Phillies held a press conference to announce the signing of the best pitcher in baseball and the team's general manager had to ask the reporters to stop asking questions about the pitcher they traded away.

Not a good sign.

Lowe, I think, will bounce back next year Sophist. However, I think you've got a point about his numbers and salary. Frankly, it limits Atlanta's trade partners.

Vasquez, on the other hand, is a very tempting righty for any team to look at. If Atlanta trades Vazquez for a good bat and Lowe rebounds, look out. They'll be tough in 2010.

Commonsense tells me that when Philly sports fans are pissed about something, it's probably a good thing. I have a feeling the Lee trade hysteria will go the way of the Dodo by next October.

Jr King, It's simply a sign of a complicated deal. People want to know why he was dealt at all. The reporters are doing their job.

Braves will be tough no matter who they deal. Lowe probably won't be worse.

Hey J.R. - sounds like what Mike Schmidt used to say: "Philadelphia is the only town where you can experience the thrill of victory one night and the agony of reading about it the next day".

Just spoke to a friend of mine who scouts for a national league team. General feeling is we won out on this. Drabek is not as highly valued by the rest of the league (i've heard that the word "overrated" has been used consistently with Kyle) as he is by Toronto and Philadelphia (see definition of Tommy John surgery). Scout also likes the hell out Phillipe Aumont and that the jury's out as to who will be more effective in the majors - Aumont or Drabek. D'arnaud is also viewed as MLB material to the tune of roughly .250 avg with 8-12 homers a year - frankly - something they can for 1-2mil (give or take a couple mil depending on the availability of fre agents) from somewhere else at the start of any year. That leaves michael taylor as the only "i'm sad to see you go".

to be clear - i'm bummed we don't have Lee and Halladay in the same rotation next year but frankly - the Halladay deal doesn't get done without him in the mix (regardless of Blanton being tendered). Once we begin to accept that Lee and Halladay in the same rotation was an impossiblity - this deal is really quite good for all the reasons referred to above.


this was a great trade - we got the best pitcher in baseball for a long time

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