Beerleaguer - Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

Beer nuts: Mets stuff; bottom-of-the-barrel news

It’s another sluggish day while the Phillies’ press corps take winter break.

Old business: Earlier this month, the Phils announced some additions to their coaching staff. Lance Carter, Steve Henderson, Mark Parent, Donnie Sadler and Jorge Velandia, who was in Clearwater last spring as a Phillies non-roster invitee, have been added to the coaching staff. Most notably, Parent, who spent the final two seasons (1997-98) of his career with the Phils, will captain Lakewood.

Keep your eye on Dusty Wathan, who served as the Phillies’ own version of Crash Davis between 2006-07. Wathan is taking over the managerial helm at Clearwater after guiding Lakewood to the South Atlantic League title last season. The fast-rising former catcher seems to be following in John Russell’s footsteps. And just look at him, too. A total throwback.

Mystery reliever still a mystery: Just a reminder to expect the Phillies to make some sort of announcement soon into the new year. Jim Salisbury’s source says the Phillies have gone under agreement with a free agent reliever, possibly Danys Baez, pending the outcome of a January physical. That’s good news. Right now, based on experience or obligation, the bullpen would consist of the fifth-starter runner-up (probably either Moyer or Kendrick), Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero, both coming off surgery, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Rule 5 pick David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo.

Bay opinion: “No, he's not Matt Holliday. Yes, the contract is kind of stupid. But Jason Bay is a heck of a consolation prize and one of those fabled ‘complementary players’ that help Reyes/Wright reach a championship.” - Sam from Amazin’ Avenue

On Molina: “To overcome a sub-.300 OBP and still be even an adequate player, you have to either be a top-notch defender (see Pedro Feliz, Adam Everett, etc.) or have incredible power (actually, these players don't exist. It's apparently impossible to hit 30 HRs and have an OBP below .300). Molina has neither. He's a bad baseball player. His SLG is good for a catcher, but is due to decline as he enters his mid-30s. If the Mets think signing him to a multi-year deal is a good investment, I can only support that. As a Phillies fan.” - Jack

Did you know? Did you know that J.C. Ramirez, part of the Cliff Lee deal, is included on the Phillies' 40-man roster?

Report: Mets set to sign outfielder Jason Bay

WFAN radio's Mike Francesa is reporting that the Mets will announce the signing of free-agent outfielder Jason Bay early next week, pending the outcome of a physical. The deal is expected to be four years, $66 million, according to the New York Post. The deal will also include a vesting option for a fifth season. Beerleaguer: The Mets will be dangerous, but only if all of their key components can rebound. It's a big 'if.' Bay isn't a difference maker in and of himself.

Monday: E-Brunt lands on his feet, signs with Nats

Eric Bruntlett, who refused a minor league assignment in November after hitting just .171/.224/.238 for the Phillies in 2009, has signed a minor league deal with the Nationals and has been invited to spring training.

Beerleaguer: It would have been hard to produce less if he tried. Bruntlett’s lone highlight was an unassisted, walk-off triple play Aug. 23 at Citi Field. Nevertheless, you can’t deny the absurd highlights during his brief tenure in Philadelphia. The triple play. Most of the others occurred in the 2008 postseason: a ninth-inning home run off hot-shot rookie David Price in a Game 2 loss to the Rays; the walk-off run on “The Little Squib that Did” in Game 3; and the eventual winning run in Game 5 of the World Series. Then in 2009, he scored the first run on Jimmy Rollins' game-winning hit in Game 4 of the NLCS. For all his faults, it’s quite a distinction to be involved in so many big moments in Phillies history.

The Nationals also announced the minor league signing of Josh “Don’t Call Me Jason” Whitesell. That’s not how you spell Weitzel, unless you’re spelling it as it sounds. And that, in a nutshell, is all she wrote for now. It’s been a slow weekend for Phillies news. I had half a mind to break down the World Series this weekend and get to the bottom of why they lost in six. We never really had time to dissect the Series as we were immediately thrust into the winter hot stove. I’m not entirely certain the Phils lost because of one specific reason; it was a combination of many issues: starting pitching, a suddenly cold lead-off hitter, the bench. I’ll stop there and open the floor for discussion.

Notes: Rodrigo Lopez has signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Tyler Walker, who I had forgotten about, remains unsigned. Recall that he expressed interest in returning. I'd offer him another minor league contract at this stage, just to add a body.

Report: Halladay talks started with Anthony Gose

The seed for one of the biggest blockbuster trades in baseball history was planted when Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. fielded a phone call from Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi while watching Raul Ibanez rehab in Reading.

That’s the story as told by veteran baseball scribe Bob Elliott, who penned the definite blow-by-blow on the Roy Halladay trade in today's edition of the Toronto Sun. Interestingly, their conversation didn’t start with the Jays asking for Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud or even top prospect Domonic Brown. According to Elliott, Ricciardi first inquired as to the availability of 18-year-old speedster Anthony Gose, set to blaze a trail through Baseballtown momentarily. Just as Reading became a hotbed for baseball’s hot stove, where opposing scouts outnumbered mascots in the days leading up to the trade deadline, the aftereffects of the Halladay deal will linger into 2010. Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez, the three players acquired from Seattle to complete the Cliff Lee portion of the trade, are likely to land in Reading to start the season.

But according to Elliott, the deal took on many different shapes. Outfielder Mike Saunders was originally part of the package from Seattle, but was swapped out for Gillies at the Phillies’ request. Then, the Phillies suggested moving Aumont and Gillies to the Jays in order to keep Drabek out of the deal. The Jays obviously balked.

One additional point worth mentioning: Regarding the July trade for Cliff Lee "We had talked to (Cleveland GM Mark) Shapiro all along," Amaro told Elliott. "Mark knew our system from the Sabathia talks." The Phillies reportedly spent a lot of time scouting CC Sabathia a year earlier, and got a good look at Lee in the process.

Beer nuts: Feast on these Phillies holiday helpings

We're talking Danys Baez, decade-ending lists and the Halladay deal.

One of our readers reminds us of the large contract Baez signed in November of 2006, a whopping three-year, $19 million albatross back when baseball was living high on the hog during the economic boom years. That was a noteworthy offseason for Baltimore. In a span of 10 days, they signed Baez for $19 million, Jamie Walker for $12 million and Chad Bradford for $10 million in an ill-fated attempt to win the American League east in the seventh and eighth innings.

Even more Baez: Finding a crowded bullpen upon his return from elbow surgery, Baez unsuccessfully lobbied to become a starter last season.

 

Yet even more Baez: Our own MG provides his scouting report: "Baez has become more of a groundball pitcher almost exclusively going with a 4-seem fastball/splitter last year vs. his pre-injury form of a 4-seem fastball/curveball regimen. Only thing that frightens me about Baez is his tendency to just melt like butter and not be able to throw a strike some nights to save his life."

 

Rosenberg: David Murphy mentions BJ Rosenberg on the short list of young, internal possibilities for the Phillies' bullpen. I'd have to think that Rosenberg, who has appeared in only 10 games above A-ball, would have to be pitching with a white-hot hand, a la Mike Zagurski in 2007, to get the opportunity. But anything's possible.

 

ESPN content: There's a feast of conversation kindling on ESPN's baseball page today, where Jayson Stark betrays Philadelphia's trust and lists Pat Burrell eighth among the decade's least valuable players. Eighth! That's harsh, Jay; Burrell garnered his share of Beerleaguer detractors over the years, but only a true curmudgeon would stick him on a list ahead of a slob like Sidney Ponson. Pat the Bat had a good run and picturesque finish; that's how most will remember his career in Philadelphia. ESPN also taps FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron, who makes a case that Chase Utley is this decade's MVP based on the WAR metric. WAR combines a player's value at the plate and in the field to illustrate the overall picture of a player's worth.

 

Halladay, Lee trades interrelated after all? One of the arguments against last week's move is why the Phillies didn't find a better trade partner for Cliff Lee. However, Dave from U.S.S. Mariner believes the M’s actually traded Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez for Cliff Lee, Brandon League, and Johermyn Chavez. Morrow was traded for League and Chavez earlier this week. Dave's position is that portion of the negotiations couldn’t get finalized before the 72-hour window granted to Toronto and Philadelphia, so the Mariners and Jays worked out the Morrow trade later.

Report: Phils under agreement with veteran reliever?

New CSNPhilly scribe Jim Salisbury adds another strong bullpen possibility to the Phillies’ list: veteran right-hander Danys Baez. [Link]

Salisbury’s source says the Phillies have gone under agreement with a free agent reliever, pending the outcome of a January physical. Reading between the lines, it’s going to be the 32-year-old Cuban native, who, as Salisbury puts it, “has been the name most attached to the Phillies in baseball circles in recent days.” Baez, who was 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA (112 ERA+) in 71 2-3 innings with Baltimore last season, missed the entire '08 season recovering from a partially torn elbow. In eight seasons, he’s 35-49 with a 4.04 ERA and 114 career saves, his last full-time, ninth-inning duty coming in 2005 with the Rays. Since then, he’s settled into a set-up role.

Beerleaguer: Your prototypical, league-average, professional late-inning reliever. He earned $7.17 million last season and I haven’t the foggiest clue what this is going to cost. But it seems like a safe choice and a decent fit for the what the Phillies need, and I think it's a smart call to go with a proven commodity here. He's somewhere in between Chad Durbin and Ryan Madson, which means he's not marquee, but a guy who will inspire a significant amount of trust, possibly even a ninth inning role if Brad Lidge is unable to make it back in time for Opening Day. Looking over the numbers, he was reliable last season, blowing just a pair of saves and finishing the season strong for a lame-duck Orioles club. I guess the one concern is how he'll adjust to Philadelphia, where expectations are obviously much higher than Baltimore or Tampa.

Transactions: Former Penn Stater signed by Phillies

Baseball America released its latest batch of minor league signings today. Topping the list: right-hander Nate Bump, who was the Giants’ first pick (25th overall) in the 1998 draft.

Bump, who last appeared with Florida in 2005, split the 2009 season between the independent Camden Riversharks and the Toledo Mud Hens (Detroit), going 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 33/10 K/BB ratio in 10 Triple-A starts. In 11 minor league seasons, the 33-year-old Towanda, Pa. native is 49-48 with a 3.69 ERA, and in parts of three seasons with Florida between 2003-05, he was 6-7 with a 4.68 ERA in 113 appearances, earning a ring as part of the Marlins' championship club in '03. It's possible he will be invited to spring training as a non-roster player, but no word on that yet. (Incidentally, I was a Penn State student when Bump was drafted and there was quite a bit of excitement over it; PSU isn't known as a hotbed of baseball talent).

Other new additions include right-hander Jay Stephens, 25, who came up through the Yankees’ system and bounced between Tampa (A), Trenton (AA) and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA) last season. Third baseman Eric Campbell, 24, joins the Phillies after spending six seasons in the Atlanta system, his last stop with Double-A Mississippi. Entering 2007, he was rated by Baseball America as the No. 6 prospect in the Braves organization. Venezuelan utilityman Melvin Dorta, 27, spent last season with Triple-A Norfolk (Baltimore) and earned a cup of coffee with Washington back in 2006. Catcher John Suomi, who was with the Phillies in 2007-08, rejoins the club after a year in the Kansas City chain.

In other news, the club resigned right-handers John Ennis, Santos Hernandez, left-handers Jason Mackintosh, Jake Woods, catcher Kevin Nelson, shortstop Fidel Hernandez, outfielders Javis Diaz, Kevin Mahar, Mike Spidale and Brian Stavisky (the latter three are likely to rejoin Reading).

Meanwhile, Robert Roth, Dan Brauer, Esmelvin Jimenez, Brendan Akashian, Phil Aviola, Francisco Murillo, Cory Wine, Vladimir de los Santos, David Hissey and T.J. Warren were released, and thus, unworthy of boldface.

Report: Braves set to trade Vazquez to Yankees

The trade, as reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, will bring outfielder Melky Cabrera, right-hander Mike Dunn and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino, rated as the third-best prospect in the Yankees' system by Baseball America, to Atlanta in exchange for right-hander Javier Vazquez and reliever Boone Logan. Vazquez held the Phillies to a .207 BAA in five starts against them last season. The Yankees' rotation already includes CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. Meanwhile, there is a report the Yankees will pay all of the $11.5 million left on Vazquez’s contract for 2010, and there are reports the Braves may use that money to lure free agent outfielder Jason Bay. Vazquez was 15–10 with a 2.87 ERA in 32 starts for the Braves last season, striking out 238.

Tuesday: Bastardo stays sharp in Dominican Republic

Left-hander Antonio Bastardo, part of the the Phillies' 25-man roster throughout the playoffs, resumed pitching Dec. 4.

The Dominican League is a sneaky thing. Just when it looked like Sabastian Valle in the Mexican League was the only player worth tracking in the Carribean this winter, Bastardo jumps into the mix. If you needed further proof that Bastardo's place will be in the 'pen, all seven of his winter league appearances with Cibao have been in short relief. In six innings of work, he's given up five hits and two walks while striking out six. Bastarto is currently accompanied by another Phillie, shortstop Wilson Valdez, who signed a minor league deal with the club last month. Valdez, who served as Jose Reyes' replacement with the Mets last season, has a .575 OPS in 158 plate appearances. Veteran Andy Tracy and Rule 5 selection David Herndon also appeared with the Cibao club earlier this offseason. Meanwhile, Valle continues his catching duties for Mochis. The 19-year-old Mexican native has a .861 OPS and 10 homers in 155 plate appearances.

Phillies faced with some unrealistic expectations

One would think the Roy Halladay trade, executed during a golden age in club history, would suggest the Phillies have moved into the uppermost echelon, but instead, it raises awareness about the team's limitations.

Half the reports spun from last week’s blockbuster were framed around the notion that the Phillies are operating within a hard spending cap, even though Halladay will be raking in $20 million a season over the next four seasons. Reason being: Halladay guarantees the Phillies a linchpin atop the rotation, but just as importantly, fiscal certainty beyond 2011. At that point, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, Ross Gload and J.C. Romero, who has an option, are set to walk, meaning Halladay, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels would become a worst-case, last bastion of hope.

Payroll is widely believed to allow for $140 million in spending, which leaves little-to-no wiggle room depending on the outcomes of several negotiations with arbitration-eligible players, including first-time All-Star Shane Victorino, who made $3.25 million last year, and right-handed workhorse Joe Blanton, who made $5.5 million. Point being, the Phillies, despite packed houses, the sea of red down Broad Street, record-setting television viewership and a pair of extended excursions deep into fall, aren’t the New York Yankees in a variety of ways.

That said, the preemptive measure with Halladay, and need to restock the farm rather than go all in with Cliff Lee for one season, makes sense. It’s actually to the point where one can start to project the Phillies’ future moves based on their minor league maneuvering. They went out of their way to protect Domonic Brown and clearly view him as one of their future corners. I’m already willing to say Ibanez will be gone in 2011, and Jayson Werth, a free agent after this season, may already be gone by then. What it means is that fans have a great chance of seeing Brown in red pinstripes in two seasons, as long as he continues to progress. The Phillies are up to their eyeballs in centerfielders with defensive skill and speed, including one of the players acquired in the Lee deal, Tyson Gillies, a late bloomer in the very general mold of Shane Victorino, though not a switch hitter like Vic. Anthony Gose is a much younger prospect with a very exciting skill set. My advice: It might not be the wisest play to invest in a Flyin’ Hawaiian jersey this season. In addition, go back and look at the list of 2011 free agents and you’ll see the entire back-end of the bullpen is set to leave. That’s why the Phillies need to keep grooming former Seattle first-rounder Phillippe Aumont as a reliever, his personally preferred position, rather than move him back into the rotation.

Anything can happen in two years, but it’s a fun exercise, and just as fun to predict who the Phils will attempt to resign. Note that two players on the list – Howard and J-Roll – are least likely to be pushed by a high-rising prospect during the next two years.

Report: Phillies offer minor league deal to Eyre

FoxSports' baseball writer Jon Morosi (via Twitter) has learned the Phillies are interested in bringing back free agent lefty Scott Eyre, but only on a minor pact. Eyre, 37, is as said to be drawing interest from the Yankees.

Beerleaguer: We should assume the Phillies are right up against or have exceeded their spending cap; team president Dave Montgomery said as much in a radio interview following the Halladay press conference. I also tend to believe Ruben Amaro when he says he didn't feel comfortable the Phillies would reach the finish line on an extension with Cliff Lee, with the biggest hurdle a matter of years, not dollars. The 2010 offseason will be Lee's one shot at a major payout, and the Phillies never like to go beyond three guaranteed years for pitching. Lee is well within his rights to demand five. The Phillies wouldn't go there.

Turning to the bullpen, here are their choices as far as we know: Scott Eyre, Mike MacDougal, Fernando Rodney, John Smoltz. The chances of resigning Chan Ho Park sound slim. Truthfully, if the Phillies are completely strapped, I'd settle for the cheapest options on this list and lose no sleep over it. MacDougal, who will turn 33 in 2010 and saved 20 games last season, albeit with brutal peripherals, isn't a bad alternative to Rodney, who also lacks control. Bullpen is such a crapshoot, and if he's half the cost, why not roll the dice? According to Jayson Stark, they're serious about it, and his 70-career saves have to be the biggest reason. They're really seeking a safety net for Brad Lidge. Even with his walks, who would you rather have pitching the 9th inning right now, MacDougal or Ryan Madson, knowing Madson's track record in save situations?

As for Eyre, who worked a good 30 innings last year, a minor league offer suggests there isn't much left on that arm. There's also a question of whether it's going to be worth carrying a second lefty who will be used so sparingly. I also think they're intrigued by the young, live arm of Antonio Bastardo.

Good tidings: Phillies exercise Rollins' 2011 option

Jimmy Rollins, who signed a five-year, $40 million contract extension in 2005, will make $7.5 million in 2010 and $8.5 million in 2011.

Beerleaguer: The majority of components from the championship core have been compensated in one form or another since the parade down Broad Street. So the Phillies did the right thing by rewarding a vital cog the only way they could. J-Roll is signed well below market value and won an MVP award midway through his tenure. Barring a catastrophic injury, which would, in my opinion, shatter all hope for a title, Rollins was going to be the shortstop the next two seasons. The timing also couldn't be better for Ruben Amaro Jr. to win back some goodwill. The Phillies severed loyalties with several key components this offseason, including Brett Myers, Scott Eyre, Pedro Feliz, and most surprisingly, World Series stalwart Cliff Lee in a swap of former Cy Youngs. The move might also serve as a way to light a spark for a player coming off something of a midlife crisis; Rollins posted an 86 OPS + this season, his lowest in seven seasons. But even in a down year, he still managed to lead all major league shortstops in fielding percentage (.990) en route to his third-straight Gold Glove Award.

The hanging option is one of those issues that was out there, but didn’t come to light until now. Let’s be honest: If I was Rollins, I would be incredibly bothered knowing the Phillies had an opportunity to guarantee a little more job security and hadn’t done so until now. At a time when there is an absolute shortage of capable shortstops, here’s a guy who forfeited free agency during a moment in history when the Phillies were the most despised team in town.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Halladay the talk of town

More would be less now that the Phillies have reached the end of this long, drawn-out ordeal that started in July, so rather than beat a dead horse with another Roy Halladay column, here are some links.

Bill Conlin calls Ruben Amaro the master of the shell game. Rich Hofmann wonders "Why not Lee and Halladay?" David Murphy notes that Kyle Drabek wasn't untouchable after all. Bob Ford identifies that Philadelphia is now the place to be. Phil Sheridan admires what he sees as a bold move by the second-year GM. Ken Rosenthal, in a leftover from yesterday, reminds readers of the ludicrously high cost of top-flight pitching. Perhaps my favorite piece is Jayson Stark's Q&A with Baseball America's John Manuel, who covers the Phillies' farm system. While everyone knows the impact this deal will have on the big club for years to come, Stark and Manuel illustrate the toll it will take on the organization and identify a few holes this will create starting as early as 2011.

But even with the issue attacked from so many sides, there's still room for a good column entitled "OK, so what about the bullpen?"

Epic fail: Prospect involved in trade flunks physical

Bob Elliott, who has been covering the Roy Halladay deal for the Toronto Sun, reports that one of the seven prospects involved in the trade has failed their physical.

According to Shi Davidi, another Canadian writer, Phillippe Aumont, who has had injury problems, passed his physical. As we know, Kyle Drabek has undergone Tommy John surgery and was shut down early this season as a precautionary measure, this after posting a 5.02 ERA in five August starts. Michael Taylor also had his season shortened with an oblique injury, but played winter ball, appearing in 19 games before departing in early November. During his stint in Mexico, he was missed 10 days with mild elbow strain, according to Scott Lauber of the News-Journal.

Update: Larry Stone of the Seattle Times is hearing it's not a Mariners prospect who failed a physical, meaning it is either Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud or Brett Wallace, the player going to Toronto from Oakland. Stone adds that the news is not a dealbreaker.

New update: Andy Martino of the Inquirer tweets "Official announcement of Halladay trade today still not out of the question."

Wednesday: Phils set to formally announce Halladay

A presser could be held at Citizens Bank Park today, according to reports.

The Phillies and Roy Halladay agreed on a three-year, $60 million contract extension Tuesday that is believed to include at least one vesting option in the neighborhood of $20 million and possibly a second one for 2015. Halladay first checked into a Philadelphia hotel on Monday and reportedly passed yesterday's physical. The interrelated deals between Toronoto, Philadelphia, Seattle and Oakland, set to receive outfielder Michael Taylor in exchange for prospect Brett Wallace upon completion of the trade, will be finalized once all the players involved clear physicals, according to reports. As for new news, the Inquirer is reporting that in July, Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi requested Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Domonic Brown and also outfielder Anthony Gose, who stole 76 bags for Lakewood this season. That is the first I'd read Gose's name mentioned in any trade rumor. Meanwhile, FoxSports is reporting that Oakland GM Billy Beane first became interested in Taylor after the Phillies inquired about outfielder Matt Holliday, fearing that Raul Ibanez's groin injury was severe enough to cause him to miss the rest of the season. Holliday was then sent to St. Louis in a deal that included Wallace.

Unleashing the beast; extension talks reportedly done

The deal between the Phillies and Roy Halladay is pending the outcome of a morning physical and will reportedly take the right-hander through 2013. The Phillies will also get $6M from Toronto and three prospects through an interrelated trade with Seattle involving Cliff Lee. Some thoughts ...

As the Beerleaguer barometer continues to sway toward the pessimistic side, here are a few words of encouragement on Doc Halladay, as expressed by former Phillies pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, who repeatedly called the 6-6 right-hander "an animal" this morning on 610 WIP radio. Kerrigan, who observed the former Cy Young winner many times from the opposite dugout, painted the picture of a fanatical competitor, a fitness zealot, a gym rat determined to achieve peak physical form while wearing his intensity on his sleeve for all to see. Besides a breaking ball, everything Lee can do Doc can do better: fewer walks, longer outings, more strikeouts, more grounders, more consistency. The key is that everything arrives down in the zone, including a hard, power sinker right-handers can’t handle, to go with an out-of-this-world cutter, which can take the fat form of a curve, according to Kerrigan, or a small, darting slider. There. Isn’t that better?

Taylor flipped for Wallace? Buster Olney says the Jays will immediately deal outfielder Michael Taylor to Oakland for Ben Wallace. Here’s Beerleaguer maven, clout, on Wallace. “Wallace is one of the best hitting prospects in the minors. The question is his glove and if he moves to another position he becomes far less valuable. He combined for .293/.367/.455 with 20 HRs between AA/AAA last season. because being dealt to the A's he was Cardinals #2 prospect according to BA, just behind Rasmus. He's a heavy legged guy with an average arm, but I think he can be league average defensively at 3B. I think he'll hit .300 in the big leagues with 20-25 HR power.”

Rankings: Baseball America ranked the incoming Mariners prospects this way: RHP Phillippe Aumont (No. 3 in Ms system), OF Tyson Gillies (No. 20), RHP Juan (J.C.) Ramirez (No. 5). From what I gather, Ramirez, a late addition to the reports, has the most upside. Phuture Phillies had this to say: “I actually like Ramirez more than Aumont, mainly based on his also plus arm strength but his more fine tuned delivery. Like Aumont, he gets nice tailing movement on his fastball and couples it with a hard slider and a rudimentary changeup. Ramirez, signed out of Nicaragua, dominated the Midwest League in 2008, striking out 113 and walking only 38 in 124 IP. He was moved up to the Cal League this year, and the results weren’t good. As I detailed before, High Desert is one of the best hitting parks in all of baseball, minors or majors, and it appears to have gotten into his head"

Keith Law also says Ramirez has No. 2 starter potential.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Breaking down the deal

Attacking the deal from all sides, based on developing reports.

The good: The best part of this deal is the cost of Roy Halladay's extension - averaging $20 million a season and committing to only three guaranteed years past free agency. That's very reasonable, and since they're reportedly getting $6 million from Toronto, he's essentially owed Cliff Lee money for 2010. The Phillies know what they're getting: a stud set to rip the ass out of the weaker Senior Circuit, and a great fit for the elite Phillies in every possible respect.

The bad: The part that could haunt Ruben Amaro's dreams is not finding a home for Joe Blanton last week in an effort to shed salary, and because he didn't want to get caught with his pants down, tendered a deal to Kentucky Joe in the event that they couldn't land Doc. So because of that, they essentially had to sell some of their premium prospects to guarantee having a front-line starter for the next few seasons, while missing out on the opportunity to unleash the hounds of hell - Doc, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels - upon the league next season. What's more, if Amaro is dumping Lee as a way to free up funds to go toward free agent relief - and he fails to acquire some - than this series of deals smells like a sophomore slump for the second-year GM.

As of this morning, the prospect portion is still up in the air. The Phillies universal development philosophy is to draft and retain the players with elite star potential, often at a very high risk. The Phillies believed they had two good bets in Domonic Brown and Kyle Drabek, with a significant drop between them and the next highest group, including Michael Taylor and Travis d'Arnaud, also included in the reported deal. They were able to keep one of them - Brown - and Toronto, justifiably, took the other - Drabek - according to reports. Though still unclear, it appears the Phils' system will at least take a small step backward. (Although I gotta say I'm intrigued by the heavy fastball of 6-7 closer prospect Phillippe Aumont, and Tyson Gillies could experience the same type of breakout season in Double-A as Taylor had in Reading this season).

The unknown: Now that the framework is set, will another team stand up and be heard? Halladay and Lee are coming and going in separate deals, so the Phillies could tell the Mariners to go pound sand if they receive a better offer. Keep in mind the 72-hour window granted to the Phils and Jays, and the AP report of Blanton getting a physical yesterday. Guys like Blanton and even J.A. Happ are the real wildcards here: competent, economic starting pitchers, but in my view, non-essential components in the Phillies' master plan for knocking off the Yankees.

Halladay inspires off-season of giving for Phillies

New details on the reportedly imminent deal between the Phillies, Blue Jays and Mariners have emerged since our last update. Here's what we think we know, culled from multiple sources.

At this hour, Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown is dancing around his bedroom to MC Hammer's "Can't touch this." Reason being - all this hullabaloo seems to stem from the Phillies' reluctance to deal their prized prospect, the player Toronto wants most of all. They'll need to settle for Travis d'Arnaud, a player the Phillies like a lot, outfielder Michael Taylor, who they like less than Brown, and either Kyle Drabek or J.A. Happ. Indeed, a boatload of young talent, intended to jump-start a rebuilding franchise, appears headed north of the border in exchange for Roy Halladay and possibly $6 million in cash. Happ tied for the team lead in wins last season and finished runner up for Rookie of the Year. The other three are rated 2-through-4 in the Phillies' chain by Baseball America, Drabek being the highest. The last we heard of Drabek was that he was a deal-breaker in the July negotiations between these two sides. Amaro's willingness to pull the trigger now may be tied to a completely separate salary dump type deal in which the Mariners would receive ace left-hander Cliff Lee in exchange for 2007 first-round pick (11th overall), 6-7 right-hander Phillippe Aumont, soon 21, considered a closer prospect, along with 21-year-old tools outfielder Tyson Gillies, who appeared in the Futures Games this season and hit .341/.430/.486 with 42 SB, 9 HR with Seattle's High-A affiliate. According to report by a Seattle paper, both are blocked in the Mariners' chain.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press jumped in with a report that Joe Blanton, the subject of rumors during the Winter Meetings, Happ and Brown took physicals Monday in Philadelphia. The AP also reported the commissioner's office granted a three-day window for the Jays and Phils to hash out a deal Sunday.

We'll have more details as this story unfolds, but for now, the only near certainty is that Doc Halladay, who sported a lights-out 155 ERA+ last season, is set to become the Phillies' ace for the next four seasons.

12:32 a.m. update: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports reports the deal will involve Drabek, and could include a third prospect coming to Philadelphia.

Stark: Parties agree to framework of Halladay trade

ESPN's Jayson Stark said the deal hinges on the Phillies' ability to extend Roy Halladay, who is believed to be willing to accept a three-year, $60 million extension with a vesting option. [Link]

Beerleaguer: Speculation continues to swirl at this hour and most outlets are sure a deal will not be finalized tonight. However, the possibility of Roy Halladay wearing red pinstripes next season appears likely. Pick your poison with these rumors, but I'm hanging my hat on Stark's latest offering; Stark has been a good friend to Beerleaguer over the years. Stark and several others believe there is a three-way trade on the table, with Philadelphia receiving Halladay, postseason hero Cliff Lee going to Seattle and a care package of Phillies and Mariners prospects going north of the border. Aside from finalizing an extension with Doc, it sounds like there are other variables at play. Phillies catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud is believed to be involved in the deal, but there is some uncertainty over the second player in the the package; speculation surrounds outfielder Michael Taylor, but that is unconfirmed (it's all unconfirmed). Meanwhile, the deal may or may not involve cash coming from Toronto; the latest reports actually have the Phillies getting a few players back in the deal. The centerpiece of the deal, from the Jays' end, appears to be right-handed prospect Phillipe Aumont, a Canadian first-round pick of Seattle in 2007.

If the reported deal holds, the Phillies will be able to keep Domonic Brown and Kyle Drabek, who are considered 1-2 in the Phillies' system with a wide gap between the next best players; this according to Stark on Beerleaguer two weeks ago. Toronto has been hot after both of them since July. According to Stark, the Phillies had been trying to shed payroll by aggressively shopping Joe Blanton at the Winter Meetings, but couldn't find a match.

Breaking report: Halladay, agent arrive in Philadelphia

Two sources for the Inquirer report that Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay and his agent have checked into a Philadelphia hotel. [Link]

Hold on to your hats! According to reports, the Phillies and Blue Jays have graduated past the flirtation phase of a pact that would send Halladay to the Phillies in exchange for prospects, with the reported involvement of a third team, and possibility of World Series hero Cliff Lee being sent out of town to complete the three-way deal. If the reports are correct, Halladay's presence in Philadelphia signals the start of a negotiation process to extend the right-hander past this season. Halladay is set to become a free agent at the end of the year and is owed $16 million in 2010. The Phils and Jays have long been locked in discussions about Halladay, but reports of cash coming from Toronto and the inclusion of Lee in a deal are new developments, speculated in multiple reports. Lee is also set to become a free agent after the season and is said to be leaning toward testing the open market after the 2010 season. [FoxSports]  [CSNPhilly]

Update: The Mariners are the third team and would possibly receive Cliff Lee in the three-way trade, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com.

Ex-Yankee 3B among Phillies' non-roster invitees

Seven minor league veterans, including A-Rod's early season replacement in 2009, will be invited to Phillies spring training in Clearwater. Here's a look at three you haven't seen before.

Chris Duffy, OF: Duffy, 29, started the season with Milwaukee, where he hit .125/.222/.156 in 19 games before he was demoted to Triple-A Nashville in late May, where he appeared in only three games before going temporarily inactive for the rest of the season due to personal issues. He'll slice the occasional home run, otherwise he's your basic banjo-hitting minor league center fielder with OK athleticism and a schooled approach, hitting .269/.328/.361 during his days in Pittsburgh, swiping 41 bags. He should have discovered Japan by now.

Bill White, LHP: White, 31, did not pitch professionally this past season, last pitching 2008 as a member of the Texas Rangers organization where he combined to go 4-1 with six saves and a 3.48 ERA in 51 relief appearances between triple-A Oklahoma and single-A Bakersfield. He appeared in eight games for Texas in 2008. Over nine minor league seasons, he's 19-23 with a 4.66 ERA. Think Allentown, or even Reading. Definitely not Philadelphia.

Cody Ransom, INF: Ransom, 33, split the 2009 season between New York and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He began the year as the Yankees' opening day third baseman, filling in for Alex Rodriguez as he recovered from hip surgery. With New York, Ransom hit .190/.256/.329 in 31 games, including 18 starts at third, two at shortstop and one each at first and second base. He's appeared in parts of seven Major League seasons between the Giants (2001-04), Astros (2007) and Yanks (2008-09). Aside from filling in for A-Rod, his modus operandi is that of a Triple-A lifer, hitting .247/.325/.446 in parts of nine seasons at the minor league's highest level. He has good power from the right side, hitting over 20 home runs the last three seasons in Triple-A, plus he has speed. However, he has no plate discipline to speak of, whiffing 1,195 times in 4,802 lifetime minor league plate appearances. With the Yankees last season, he struck out 25 times in 86 plate appearances. He's another guy who should seriously consider Japan.

The Phillies also invited Andy Tracy, DeWayne Wise, Wilson Valdez and Paul Hoover to spring training. Valdez, as discussed, is slightly worse than Juan Castro, but since he'll have the luxury of staying fresh an entire season in Triple-A, could creep into the mix late in '10 if Castro starts collecting too much dust, which is how it worked for Miguel Cairo and Eric Bruntlett a year ago. Ransom, as a righty hitter with pop, versatility, athleticism and experience, is positioned pretty well in the Phillies' chain if someone like Greg Dobbs gets hurt again.

Ex-Phillie report: The Mets have signed third baseman Mike Cervenak to a minor deal. Cervenak collected his first MLB hit with the Phils in 2008 as a September call-up. Meanwhile, the Astros are helping themselves to more of the Phillies' sloppy seconds, including reliever Gary Majewski and starter Gustavo Chacin, both signed to minor deals. Finally, T.J. Bohn, who appeared in a couple games for the Phillies in 2008, has signed on with the ChiSox.

Phillies sign Colombian catcher? Wanted to pass along an unconfirmed report that the Phils have signed 16-year-old Colombian catcher Jorge Alfaro in the amount of 2,500 million Colombian pesos, which is a record signing for that country, according to a report in a Colombian paper. A follow-up Twitter report from an ESPN senior scribe said the catcher worked out with the Phillies yesterday, but no deal has been struck. That figure, by the way, translates to $1.25 million US dollars.

'Everyday' Clay gets midnight non-tender by Phillies

Clay Condrey, 34, had been in the organization since 2004 and went 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA in an injury-shortened 2009. He is now a free agent.

Beerleaguer: We bid farewell to one of the most popular Beerleaguers of all time today, a handy middle reliever whose fringe status made him the subject of countless debates over the years. After a season in which he floated between Triple-A and the Majors five times - faithfully accepting his assignment each time - the right-hander finally earned a full ride in Philadelphia during the championship season and played an important role in the middle frames and in long relief. The sinkerballer had one of his best seasons going in 2009, creeping closer to the late frames, displaying a little more life on his fastball and picking up six vulture wins before injuries set in. He pitched sparingly over the final month and was left off the postseason roster.

Nevertheless, it was a good ride for Everyday Clay, who initially signed as a minor league starter in 2004 and was converted to a reliever in 2006. The right-handed Texan would eventually make 161 middle relief appearances for the Phillies over a span of four seasons, going 16-8 with a 3.65 ERA and 143/87 K/BB ratio over 189 2-3 innings. Beerleaguers had this to say following news of the non-tender:

"He's a low leverage middle relief pitcher. The reason guys like this get non-tendered is because, as the put on service years, their likely arbitration value exceeds their actual value. His production is easily replaceable for less money." - sophist

"Condrey is nothing but a middle-of-the-road reliever coming off an injury-plagued year and who likely would have commanded ~$900k-$1M or so in arbitration. He's far from irreplaceable. Still, the bullpen has almost zero depth right now and a ton of question marks. Addition by subtraction doesn't help things" - MG

Notes: I'll be back later today with a recap of Friday's announcement of the non-roster invitees and contract offers to the rest of the Phillies' arbitration-eligible players.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Arb deadline approaching

Just a few notes to get you started this Friday, none of them related to the odds of the Phillies landing Roy Halladay before Christmas (the odds are down to 34.2 percent today).

After selecting sinkerball reliever David Herndon in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft, the Phils followed up by taking right-hander Angelo Sanchez from the Twins in the minor league phase. The 20-year-old Venezuelan started 12 games for Elizabethton of the rookie Appalachian League, going 5-1 with a 5.52 ERA. The Phillies relinquished only one player in the draft: Carlos Monaserios, which is good news for those who hold Edgar Garcia in high regard. Meanwhile, talks reportedly continue with agents for Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and also John Smoltz, who Jayson Stark sees as a fit for the Phillies’ bullpen rather than the rotation. Speaking of the bullpen, the Phillies have until midnight Saturday to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, a list that includes Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey. The last piece of news stemming from this week’s winter meetings includes the Philllies’ reported interest in flame thrower Aroldis Chapman, a Cuban defector who is said to be seeking a four-year deal in the $15 million range. The Phils have reportedly been tracking him for a year. Elsewhere, the Mets were the center of the hottest rumor of yesterday, a reported four-year, $65 million offer on the table to Jason Bay.

Scribe sets Phillies' odds for Halladay at 35 percent

Re-Rewrite: Todd Zolecki, a guest of WIP radio, suggested the Phillies have a fighting chance of landing Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay in a trade before Christmas, setting the likelihood at 35 percent. J.A. Happ and either Domonic Brown or Michael Taylor would be part of the deal, according to reports. Other outlets, including FoxSports, are calling the Phillies and the Angels frontrunners for the right-hander's services. The asking price for Halladay, who is a free agent after the season, has dropped since the trade deadline since his presence will impact only one World Series, not two. And the World Series is exactly where the Phillies are going if they make this trade.

Former Phillie Pedro Feliz headed for Houston

Multiple reports are confirming that free agent Pedro Feliz, who spent the last two seasons with the Phillies, will earn $4.5 million on a one-year deal to become the Astros new third baseman. Feliz would have earned $5 million had the Philllies entertained his 2010 option, but received a $500,000 buyout instead. So financially it evens out for Pete Happy. The 34-year-old posted a .694 OPS last season and hit just .167 in the postseason. If the financials are accurate, Ed Wade, once again, overpaid for an aging, marginal veteran, and I'm a little surprised by how much teams have been spending here in the early going.

Phillies select Herndon, lose Monasterios, in Rule 5

David Herndon, a big, 24-year-old right-handed reliever, spent last season with Double-A Arkansas (Angels), going 5-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 11 saves in 65 1-3 innings.

John Manuel, who covers the Phillies for Baseball America, writes that Herndon, listed under the name "Kenneth" "struggles with lefthanded hitters, but he has a solid-average fastball and pretty decent slider and splitter. He’s another groundball pitcher who walked just 14 in 65 innings at Double-A this year." Meanwhile, the Mets grabbed Venezuelan right-hander Carlos Monasterios with the seventh pick overall, then immediately traded him to the Dodgers for cash. In 35 games for Clearwater, Monasterios, part of the 2006 Bobby Abreu deal, was 5–6 with a 3.73 ERA, pitching primarily in relief. Herndon must be kept on the Phillies 25-man roster all of next season or be offered back to Angels.

Teams make $50,000 bet on longshots in Rule 5 draft

There will be diamonds in the rough, but far more fool's gold when teams stake their claim for unprotected minor leaguers in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft.

Shane Victorino turned into a prize for the Phillies five years ago in the Rule 5 Draft, but the Flyin' Hawaiian is more the exception than the rule. The Phils are scheduled to pick way down at 26 tomorrow, and with a team poised for the pennant once again, odds of drafting, and keeping, a hidden gem on the 25-man roster are slim to none. Last year, the Phils selected Double-A right-hander Robert Mosebach and gave him a short, spring audition in the bullpen before returning him to the Angels. There was no room for Mosebach, but credit the Phils for seeing something they liked. Mosebach actually turned in a pretty good season for the Halos between Double and Triple-A, posting a 1.48 ERA in 52 relief appearances, allowing just one long ball the entire year, which is hard to do when 33 of your games come in the PCL.

Picking 26, the story this season could be the players the Phillies lose to other clubs. Right-hander Edgar Garcia and second baseman Harold Garcia are notable Phillies left unprotected, according to Baseball America. E. Garcia, who throws heat and can miss bats, was a FSL All-Star in 2008, but missed much of '09 with visa issues. Before the '09 season, assistent GM Chuch LaMar told me during a winter tour stop that the right-hander was one of the prospects teams frequently inquired about. H. Garcia is an older infielder with some assets who had something of a breakout season with Lakewood. It will be harder for a team to make room on a 25-man roster for a position player than it will be for a reliever, so of these two, Edgar might be more likely to be stashed somewhere. Catcher is another position that's coveted as an economic way to pad inventory. My understanding is that organizational catcher Tuffy Gosewisch is eligible to be taken.

Phillies bring bench veteran Ross Gload into the fold

Gload, 33, bats from the left side and can play first and corner outfield. Reportedly a two-year deal, he's coming off a season in which he hit a capable .261/.329/.400 and led baseball in pinch hits.

Beerleaguer: With Gload, Ben Francisco, Brian Schneider, Greg Dobbs and Juan Castro, the Phillies have a "presentable" bench headed into 2010. It wasn't long ago that Gload was an everyday first baseman in this league, but it was with Kansas City in 2008 and he was considered the worst regular at the position in all of baseball. Baseball Prospectus said after 2008 that the last time a regular first baseman posted a sub .665 OPS in 400 or more PAs was Pittsburgh's Kevin Young in 1993, and the last time a first baseman went yard fewer than four times in a season was Todd Benzinger in 1991.

None of that really matters for the Phillies; what matters is that at age 33, soon to be 34, Gload has successfully transitioned to his second career as a pinch hitter in the National League, hitting a robust .318/.418/.455 with a pair of homers in the role for the Marlins. He's got marginal pop from the left side, sound defensive skill at first base and can be used sparingly in the outfield, so he's an upgrade over Matt Stairs and more in the mold of primary pinch option Greg Dobbs, who had a shaky year. Unfortunately, he doesn't hit lefties, so the bench will remain imbalanced. Interestingly, Dobbs is signed only through 2010, so if this is indeed a two-year pact to Gload, or even if it isn't, we could be seeing the last of Dobbs after this season.

Gload, who earned $1.9 million last season and is expected to command a similar payout, was also pursued by the Braves and Marlins. Good signing by the Phils.

Monday: Beerleaguer VIP lounge open for speculation

It ain’t Vegas, and it ain’t Indianapolis, either, but business hours are open for readers to share the Winter Meetings' dirty little secrets in this virtual hot stove champagne room.

Beerleaguer wishes he was present at the Winter Meetings so he could sift through the hotel lobby trash cans in search of any nugget of information blotted on a cocktail napkin. Readers recall it was last year at this time when Ruben Amaro Jr. and his cronies, fresh off a chest-thumping win in the World Series, slung some serious hash in Las Vegas, netting Ronny Paulino straight up for Jason Jaramillo in a rare catcher swap, likely hatched at 1:34 a.m., brandy snifters and Cubans in hand. (Imagine what that cocktail napkin would go for on eBay). It ended up being Rube’s second worst deal of the season, second only to the swap that flipped Paulino to the Giants for Jack Taschner.

In Indianapolis, there's a good bit of chatter involving former Phillies. Brett Myers is drawing interest from the Rangers and Astros. Myers would be wise to stay in the familiar framework of the National League I think. I wouldn't put it past Myers to make his decision based on the fact that he could still take his hacks by staying in the NL. Meanwhile, I’ve read Pat Burrell’s name in connection with the Mets and Luis Castillo, but most of the reports coming from New York’s press corp say they want no part in Pat the Bat, as part of a three-way deal or even in a straight-up for Castillo.

The juiciest bit of information involves Phillies right-hander Joe Blanton, who is arbitration eligible. Ed Price of AOL’s Fanhouse reports the Phillies are exploring interest in the right-hander. In other news, the Phillies are revisiting the Chan Ho Park issue today, according to David Murphy of the Daily News. Share with the class ...

Baseball America abuzz about toolsy, aggressive Phils

Baseball America continues to lavish the Phillies with praise, recently rating the organization's farm system as the fourth strongest in baseball behind only the Rangers, Rays and Giants.

John Manuel, who has covered the Phillies for the last few seasons, couldn't say enough about the National League pennant winners in a November BA podcast (subscribe for free on iTunes; I highly recommend it). I can't remember his exact words, but he said something to the effect of the Phillies having toolsy outfielders coming out the wazzo. He seems generally high on many of them, even guys who didn't make the top 10 cut, like Jiwan James and Zach Collier. He's obviously most stoked about Domonic Brown, who was something of a reach by Manuel a season ago as the top prospect in the chain. Manuel's scouting sources think the still developing gazelle could hit 30 homers in the pros.

Long story short, Manuel's most striking observation during the podcast compared the system under assistant GM Chuck LaMar with that of Mike Arbuckle, who moved on to Kansas City after the promotion of Ruben Amaro Jr. Unlike Arbuckle, LaMar has been very aggressive to move prospects through the ranks and less inclined to demote struggling players. Look at someone like Kyle Drabek, for example, who needed only 10 starts at Clearwater before making the jump to Double-A, with only 35 injury-interrupted starts made before that point. Carlos Carrasco, now with the Indians, was another hard-throwing pitcher shuffled along quickly. Compare that to the methodical, step-by-step development of prospects during Arbuckle's early days.

I wonder, however, which is the correct approach. To me, Drabek and Carrasco each took their lumps for it; Drabek really faded after Toronto's scouts withdrew following the trade deadline. On the other hand, Drabek's mid-season promotion succeeded in buidling excitement around a potential trade chip. And to me, Carrasco never pitched with much consistency at any point during his hurried time with the club. Food for thought.

Phillies could lean on young pitching in bullpen

The Phillies are expected to direct their remaining offseason efforts toward the bullpen. But with resources stretched, there’s a chance not every hole will be filled by an established reliever.

Ruben Amaro got his third baseman. Now comes the hard part: untangling the web in middle relief. Free agents Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre were not offered arbitration, even though they filled very important roles in the 'pen last season. Meanwhile, Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey are due raises through arbitration. Neither one is a given to be tendered considering the Phillies’ financial constraints. Dec. 12 is the deadline to make an offer. And now this: There’s a report from Jayson Stark today suggesting late-inning option Brandon Lyon is now the Phillies’ top free agent priority. Competition for the right-hander’s services will be stiff. The Yankees and others are in on him, too, so his price tag immediately goes up. If the Phillies can somehow get him, will there be room for anyone else? It's doubtful.

The Phils have had the good fortune to maintain a cohesive, mostly veteran bullpen these last two seasons, but there’s a chance 2010 could resemble 2006-07 as a time of youthful experimentation. The Phillies have 18 slots on the 40-man roster devoted to pitching and nearly half are for pitchers who spent time in the minors last season. Some of them, like Drew Naylor, for example, will be non-factors, but others, like left-hander Antonio Bastardo, who stayed on the active roster the entire postseason, appear to be part of the Phillies’ plans. Others include Sergio Escalona, who bounced back-and-forth between the minors, and Kyle Kendrick, who may be forced to embrace a relief role. It’s also sounding like dart-thrower Scott Mathieson could factor into the mix if there’s room. And just as Escalona came out of nowhere to earn a call-up last season, the same could happen to Yohan Flande or Jesus Sanchez, depending on the timing of it. The Phillies tend to go with the hottest hand when the need arises. Both prospects are included on the 40-man.

Beerleaguer take: Pros outweigh cons in Polanco deal

Here’s why the deal makes sense: As of this morning, the Phillies had the worst third base situation in baseball, which is to say, they didn’t have one. They elected not to exercise their $5.5 million option to Pedro Feliz, one of the weakest run-producing third baseman in baseball over the last few seasons. So by their own hand, there was a real urgency for the Phillies to get something done early if they had any hope of making an upgrade. Polanco is a good Major League player and will shore up arguably the weakest position in the Phillies’ chain. In locking in for three years, they’re leaving nothing to chance by relying on free agency or trades for the next few years.

Many readers have scoffed at the amount. To the credit of Polanco’s agent, he leveraged the most he could from the Phillies, knowing that Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins, viewed as more attractive options for various reasons, were out of the Phillies’ range. He knew the Phillies would set the bar among the hot corner’s second tier. As for the $6 million per season, a little perspective; that’s less, per season, than Geoff Jenkins got to platoon with Jayson Werth. Compare that with an everyday third baseman. It's not a crippling amount, either, when you consider what the Phillies likely have planned for the rest of the offseason (8th inning option, fifth starter). In Polanco, the Phillies are getting not only a third baseman, but a Gold Glove winning second baseman (outbidding all the other teams in need of a second baseman) plus a very sound contact hitter atop the lineup, which is something they needed.

Here’s why the deal doesn’t makes sense: He’s playing out of position. He hasn’t been a regular third baseman for almost seven years and there’s no way to know if he has the arm for it at age 34. Best guess: he’ll be just fine because he’s a naturally gifted defender. But it’s still a $18 million gamble. Secondly, his age and .727 OPS in '09 suggest declining levels of skill that will only get worse. Scouts said his bat slowed in 2009. Finally, when was the last time a returnee found success in Philadelphia? For whatever reason, it never happens.

Phillies sign INF Polanco to 3-year, $18 million deal

Following a successful physical this morning, Placido Polanco will be officially announced as the team’s new third baseman later today, according to reports.

(From a Phillies news release) - Polanco, 34, hit .285/.331/.396 last season with 31 doubles, 10 home runs and 72 RBI in 153 games for the Detroit Tigers. Among all active major league players, Polanco has the second-best career strikeout/plate appearance ratio at 15.39. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre has a better ratio (18.0). This will be Polanco's second stint with the Phillies. He was previously acquired by the club in July of 2002 as part of the trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for third baseman Scott Rolen. In 297 games with the Phillies from 2002-05, Polanco hit .297 with 38 home runs, 160 RBI and 23 stolen bases, then was traded to Detroit a deal for Ugeth Urbina. A two-time Rawlings Gold Glove Award winner (2007, 2009), Polanco is the active major league leader for fielding percentage (.993) at second base. As a third baseman, Polanco has a .982 fielding percentage in 322 career games (266 starts), 95 of which came as a Phillie. Beerleaguer will offer his official take on the signing when he’s not quite so busy.

Report: Phillies, Polanco on verge of 3-year pact

SI’s Jon Heyman is reporting that the Phillies and free agent Placido Polanco are expected to finalize a 3-year, $18 million deal today. Polanco, who won the AL Gold Glove at second base this season, is expected to take over at third base. More as this story unfolds ...

Readers express concern over potential Polly signing

The Phillies are reportedly in serious talks with free agent Placido Polanco. Reactions have been mixed.

"Kind of mixed on this signing. Polanco is the type of hitter this lineup needs (high AVG, right-handed hitter). Still, there are a couple of worrisome signs the last 2 seasons including the drop in % LD that Polanco is hitting and the increasing amount of balls he is chasing out of the zone. Might correspond to Polanco trying to cheat on offspeed stuff a bit more because the scouting reports said his bat speed has slowed a bit last year and that he has a bit more trouble catching up with fastballs. This lineup really needs a .300 hitter and apparently Amaro thinks Polanco is that guy. If Polanco can give the Phils a line of say .295/.340/.410 and play steady defense, then it was a good signing. However, if Polanco hits say .275/.320/.390 and struggles to make the throws over to 1B consistently then it wasn't a good signing because it really doesn't represent much of an improvement over what Feliz gave them." – MG

"Polanco's OBP dip last year was completely on a dip in singles (his power numbers and walk rate were nearly identical from the year previous). The BABIP drop despite a steady LD% could be just an off year, or it could be a red flag of a aging player (something we say with Jenkins the year previous to his signing). Supporting the former: his HR/FB actually went up from 2008. Additionally, his BA on LD was nearly identical to 2008, suggesting that the bulk of the dip lies in a dip in IF hits. Interesting number: Polanco's BB percentage was lower than Feliz' last year." – sophist

"Here's where the BL conventional wisdom gets dinged, at least statistically. Based on lifetime stats, by moving Polanco to the 2-hole and Vic down to the 7-hole, the Phillies produce an estimated 4.952 RPG, less than if Polanco hits out of the 7-hole. Now, there are obviously problems with using a statistical analyzer that relies solely on OBP and SLG (no SB, etc.), but I thought it was at least interesting enough to post." – awh

Multiple reports say Polanco is the Phillies' guy

A number of outlets, including ESPN and FoxSports, are reporting that talks have intensified between the Phillies and free agent Placido Polanco, who is being targeted as the team's next third baseman. Polanco, 34, won his second Gold Glove at second base this season, hitting .285/.331/.396 as Detroit's two-hole hitter. His last regular action at third came as a member of the Phillies.

Wednesday: Putz, Betancourt named in Phils’ rumors

Right-hander and former 40-game saver J.J. Putz, and right-hander Rafael Betancourt, who finished the season in Colorado, are listed as possibilities for the Phillies in two separate reports.ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick says they Phillies have expressed interest in Putz, who flamed out with a season-ending elbow injury after 29 1-3 innings with the Mets last season; Putz hasn’t been right since 2007. Betancourt, included in a FoxSports report, went 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA in 61 games with the Indians and Rockies. The 34-year-old faced the Phillies three times in the NLDS, striking out the side in Game 3. Update: One more rumor to report, courtesy of SI's Jon Heyman. The Phillies are one of three teams "believed to have some interest" in Randy Wolf. What offseason is complete without the annual rumor of Randy Wolf's fabled return "home."

Smoltz report suggests starting pitching is next

The Phillies have crossed off utility infielder and backup catcher from their list. Now, they may have their sights set on a pitcher to contend for the rotation or slot into the bullpen. John Smoltz could be that guy.

ESPN's Jayson Stark reported yesterday that the Phillies have shown interest in the soon-to-be 43-year-old former Brave, who went 1-3 with a 4.26 in seven starts with the Cardinals late last year. Smoltz, who has 213 wins and 3,084 strikeouts over a stellar 21-year career, began the season with the Boston Red Sox and was torched with an 8.23 ERA in eight appearances before he was designated for assignment. The Phillies, who rounded out the bottom of their rotation using veterans Chan Ho Park, Rodrigo Lopez, Jamie Moyer and, most successfully, Pedro Martinez at various points throughout the 2009 campaign, could be hatching the same plan here. Moyer, who is set to undergo knee surgery, in addition to his continued recovery from a pair of surgeries related to two torn tendons in his groin, may be questionable to open the season as the team's fifth starter, meaning the Phillies could sign Smoltz for the same half-season program they built for Pedro. Smoltz has also had success out of the 'pen, but hasn't pitched in that capacity in regularity since 2004. Kyle Kendrick, who could also get a look in the bullpen, figures to be the only other viable in-house option should Moyer need more time.

No arbitration offered to free agents Park, Eyre

As suggested by team GM Ruben Amaro Jr. this afternoon, the Phillies declined salary arbitration to free agent relievers Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre, who were both Type B free agents. The Phillies have indicated at least some interest in resigning them, particularly Park, who flourished as a late-inning option. Eyre underwent elbow surgery shortly after the World Series and his health and plans to pitch in 2010 remain vague. Elsewhere, the Tigers did not offer arbitration to Type A free agent Placido Polanco, meaning the Phillies wouldn't forfeit a draft pick if they signed him. Beerleaguer: I'll need to see their reasoning behind declining arbitration to Park. They could still resign him, but still. I would be excited to see what he could do over a full season in the Phillies' bullpen. (The Inquirer's Andy Martino broke this story tonight on Twitter)

Beerleaguer 5 questions with ESPN's Jayson Stark

ESPN senior baseball writer and author of “Worth the Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies" stops by with his insights before heading off to a 6 p.m. book signing at the Barnes and Noble in Rittenhouse Square.

Beerleaguer: The difference between the Yankees' table setters and the Phillies in the World Series cannot be overstated. You recently suggested that lead-off gem Chone Figgins would not only carry a high price tag, but constitute a tough sell for Jimmy Rollins. Be that as it may, how much more rope are they willing to give J-Roll if he struggles the way he did last season?

Stark: That's a tough question to answer in 25 words or less. Charlie Manuel loves Jimmy Rollins and the energy he brings to that team. But there's no doubt that the manager and the hitting coach (Milt Thompson) want Jimmy to get back to having better at-bats. For a couple of years, starting with his hitting streak in 2005 and running through his MVP season, Jimmy seemed to have a great feel for his swing. In the same period, while his walks didn't increase that much, he was much more willing to work counts and look for his pitch. But the last couple of seasons, he's gotten away from that because he seems to be trying too hard to duplicate his MVP numbers. So they've talked to him about this. But it remains to be seen how they'd react if he has the same kind of approach next season. Let's just say that both he and the Flyin' Hawaiian should take note of this team's interest in Figgins and Placido Polanco, even though it's unlikely they'll wind up signing either of them.

Beerleaguer: It's shaping up to be another sluggish offseason for free agent signings. The Phillies have started off with an economic upgrade in Juan Castro. Should we expect more value signings, and are the Phillies basically maxed out at this point?

Stark: I don't think that "maxed out" really describes them. They have money to spend, and they're going to have a record payroll (close to $140 million). But they need to find an every-day third baseman, and they need to make an impact bullpen signing, or maybe several. So that's where their money is going. And that'll pretty much eat up the signings budget. If they sign any combination of Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, Brandon Lyon, Mike Gonzalez, etc., I can promise you those would definitely not be on-the-cheap type signings. They wouldn't be at Sabathia/Teixeira dollars, but they won't be million-dollar-a-year players, either. There will be some more of those, though, to fill out the bench and bullpen. But I see at least two significant signings at some point.

Beerleaguer: The Phillies have traded offense for defense at third for several seasons (Pedro Feliz, Abe Nunez, David Bell, etc.). Are you worried what a defensive downgrade such as Mark DeRosa might do to the confidence of the pitching staff?

Stark: That depends on whether DeRosa winds up being the every-day third baseman or something else. If he's the guy they sign -- instead of Beltre, who can play the heck out of third base -- I think they'd use him at other positions, too. DeRosa's greatest assets are offense and versatility, so it wouldn't be out of the question to see him play some left and some second base to spell Ibanez and Utley. I don't know if I like the idea of the "regular" third baseman also being the primary backup at two other positions, but they've kicked that around. Then again, it's not a slam dunk that he'll be the guy they sign. And other than Beltre, everybody on their shopping list would be a defensive downgrade from Feliz. There's a price to be paid for that. The question is whether the pros outweigh the cons. I'm a big DeRosa fan, so I'd vote yes. He'd be a major step toward balancing out this lineup.

Beerleaguer: Would the Phillies consider trading Cole Hamels?

Stark: Now? No chance. None. Nada. Why would they? This guy doesn't even turn 26 for another few weeks. He's younger than most of last year's big rookie-of-the-year candidates: J.A. Happ, Jeff Niemann, Randy Wells, Ramon Troncoso, etc. Compare his overall '09 numbers (strikeout ratio, WHIP, K/BB ratio) with Cliff Lee's sometime. You'll be shocked how close they are. And remember this, too: Cole Hamels has s been great every year of his pro career until last season. Great. So with Lee's future so uncertain, they can't even consider trading a pitcher with that much upside. And they aren't.

Beerleaguer: Which prospects have the Phillies most excited?

Stark: Domonic Brown and Kyle Drabek are the clear 1-2, and there's a big dropoff to everyone else. They love everything about Michael Taylor, but I still sense they're skeptical he'll ever be a star. They like Travis D'Arnaud a lot as a potential Catcher of the Future. And while Anthony Gose is really, really young, he's the clear-cut Centerfielder of the Future. They have a ton of pitching prospects. But Drabek looks right now like the only one with top-of-the-rotation upside. The big name to file away is Domingo Santana, a 17-year-old outfielder from the Dominican who's already 6-5 and 200-plus, who looks like an offensive monster. The ETA might not be till 2013, but if he stays on his present path, look out.

The "Worth The Wait" book tour has cranked back up for the holidays. So if you're in center city Philadelphia tonight, Jayson will be signing books at the Barnes and Noble in Rittenhouse Square at 6 p.m., alongside Phillies broadcaster Chris Wheeler, columnist-laureate Bill Lyon, Philadelphia baseball historian Rich Westcott and ever-popular Philly TV sports guy Steve Bucci.

Phillies sign catcher Schneider to a 2-year deal

The 33-year-old Northampton, Pa. product hit .218/.292/.335 in 194 plate appearances with the Mets last season, starting just 52 games behind the dish, missing time with multiple ailments including a bad back and knee.

Schneider, a notorious Phillies killer during an all-NL East career starting with Montreal/Washington from 2000-07, then onto the Mets from 2008-09, is a lifetime .251/.323/.374 hitter, but is a .273/.354/.412 hitter against the Phillies. As Phillies fans can attest, every one of his 92 lifetime hits against them seemed to be daggers. Schneider will reportedly earn $1.25 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. He has already passed his physical, so the deal is official. Schneider, who grew up a Phillies fan, will serve as a more than capable backup to starter Carlos Ruiz for the next two seasons.

Beerleaguer: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. I've written a lot about Schneider over the years and many Beerleaguers have always had a soft spot for him, be it his local ties or the way he played the position. Before Chooch emerged, I considered Schneider to be exactly the type of savvy handler the Phillies needed. Now they bring all that knowledge into the fold and there’s no other way to view the Phillies’ catching situation as one of the best in baseball. If Chooch goes on the shelf, the Phillies wouldn’t miss much, and Schneider is the type of player who helps a team even if he isn't playing. Not only that, but look at what he does to the bench. Stats aside – and he’s a far sight better than Paul Bako – Charlie Manuel will feel very confident handing the bat to Schneider in a big spot.

Two concerns: the injuries; and how he adjusts to a bench role. Nevertheless, Schneider will receive a good deal of trust right from the chute, so I wouldn’t expect him to collect dust.

The other story here is the work of Ruben Amaro Jr. to once again shore up a need early in the offseason. Schneider was one of the better catchers on the board in my estimation and to woo him with a backup role says a lot about his power of persuasion.