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Friday, December 18, 2009

Comments

JW: That last sentence is important to me. Loyalty from players to a team and vice versa is hard to find anymore. It's not always good to do business that way but it is sometimes, and this was a time where the Phillies felt they needed to do that for all the reasons you mentioned. There is some risk but there is some risk in almost every move a team makes.

Not to be-labor the prospect point but here is my repost from last thread...


Just to add a little more fuel to the prospect fire- here is what Phuture Phillies.com posted about the prospects on the 16th based off their SONAR scores.

My biggest takeaway after looking at everything for 2 days is that Gillies is a lot better prospect than I gave him credit for. Gillies is kind of what we hope Gose becomes. He’s got a much more advanced approach at the plate, doesn’t have the same contact issues, and if hes not as fast as Gose, its very close. The Phillies could potentially field an outfield of Gose, Brown and Gillies in 4 years. That would probably be one of the fastest outfields in history, which I’m sure the pitchers would appreciate. I’m not happy about losing Drabek, he was clearly out best pitching prospect. The key to the value of this deal is going to be the performance of Aumont. If the Phillies can tweak his mechanics, put him back in the rotation, and give him time to develop I think he could actually be a legitimate middle of the rotation starter. Which is what we traded away in Drabek. We’ll need time.

TTI: TTI: On Phuture Phillies every prospect will be a big leaguer some day. Let's see how Gillies handles the Eastern League. We know he can handle one of the most extreme hitter's parks in baseball.

As for Aumont, he was put in the bullpen because he has a chronic hip condition as well as elbow problems. If the Phillies want to make him a starter and see what happens, God bless 'em.

Yo, new thread.

Just wanted to be the first to say that here. I kind of figured the last thread was going to continue until Halladay's career ended or Cliff Lee re-signed with the Phillies.

The hanging option? Yeah, I guess Rollins must be thrilled. But if he has a career ending injury or decides to take the short bus to crazy town this season, Rube just cost himself the 6.5 million difference between the option and the buyout. Not a smart business decision.

If he really felt he did the right thing with the Lee dump, I don't think he'd have done this at the present time. How much risk of dead money can a team stand when it's on a tight budget?

And in case it wasn't discussed in the previous thread, anyone else interested in "We're drowning in red ink" Montgomery opening up the books so that can be verified? The only difference between accounting in baseball and in Hollywood is that the name on the check is Pujols instead of Cruise. Everything else in their accounting is akin to believing in the tooth fairy.

Rollins' childhood hero was Ricky Henderson, who played for 25 seasons. Being a SS, there's a chance J-Roll's motor stays running for more.

Lauber tweets:

Ruben Amaro Jr. on Chan Ho Park: "I just don’t think Chan Ho and the Phillies are going to be able to bring the marriage together."

Some of our dimmer posters suggested exercising Rollins' option was a mistake. I'm struggling to understand why. If they don't exercise, how deep into the 2010 season do we get before the media brings it up? Five games? This eliminates a distraction and is a vote of confidence for J-Roll. What difference does it make if it comes now or the start of spring training?

clout: I don't know enough about prospects. Do you agree with his assessment on Gillies vs. Gose?

RE: "Not a smart business decision." It will be if it helps keep J-Roll around past 2011. Unless you're anxious for the Freddy Galvis era to begin.

CJ: Not a shock. Chan Ho wants to start and some team will probably let him do it. Worse that can happen is he stinks for 8 games and gets shifted back to the pen again and has a fine season for them.

Montgomery says the team is operating in the red? After winning and then returning to the World Series?

You guys might have talked about this before, but if not, anyone know how this is possible? I know the payroll is high, but it's almost impossible to be more successful than they have been the last two years.

Random question, but how many seasons was Lieberthal with the Phills? Just wondering b/c I'm trying to compare Rollins tenure with his, in terms of length...

clout: Well, Rollins could get seriously injured; he could have a terrible season; some new option could emerge out of nowhere; and so on. Lots of players play in contract years with no ill effect whatsoever. In fact, some would even say it's an incentive. I don't much buy that it would be a distraction.

Maybe this was part of the agreement with Doc, who wanted him behind him that extra year at least?

King: The only reason I can think of is our most successful years have come during (and i'm not trying to get political) a downturn in the economy. I would assume had the economy kept trucking along before it started to dip, Phillies may have been able to have a payroll in the 150,000,000 perhaps?

(cheap)5th starter alternatives:

-How about giving Mad Dog another shot at starting? After expanding his arsenal with that sinker, he's far better suited for starting than he was before. He'd have to be replaced with at least 1, probably 2 pitchers in the bullpen, but I think its an option worth exploring.

-Why not offer Chan Ho Park another shot? Worst thing that happens is he reclaims his bullpen role.

-Chad Durbin. His tendency to wear down concerns me a bit, but lets be honest with ourselves: the 5th spot in the rotation will be a patch job.

-Brett Myers. I hate the guy and bid good riddance when he left, but if Ed Wade doesn't offer him a contract, he probably won't have many options. I could see him coming back for a very reasonable price.

-Kendrick...most likely/boring option

-Rookies: Bastardo, Carpenter, Savery, Stutes, Worley, Ramirez, Aumont(probably stays in the bullpen in 2010) My money is on Stutes; his hard sinker, physical stamina and mental toughness make him an ideal candidate for the job. He won't start the season as the Phillies 5th starter, but I think he'll finish it in that role.

Regarding Mike MacDougal rumors.

To me, if they are absolutely out of cash, this isn't a bad alternative to Rodney, who also has control issues. Bullpen is such a crapshot, and if he's half the cost of Rodney, I say go for it.

I know about the walks. But if you're talking 9th inning, who would you rather have in the 9th inning right now, MacDougal or Madson? It's a tough call, knowing Madson's track record.

clout: The one thing I like about Gillies that seems pretty consistent in the scouting is he is patient at the plate. Patience as a hitter is hard to teach to a young guy and it can really help him make the adjustment.

On Aumont what I'd be interested in how his hip condition can be managed. I've also heard varying degrees as to how serious it is. It's very possible it's somethign tied into his mechanics where he is causing more of an issue by putting undue stress on that area. Hopefully it is something semi-simple like that because it's an easy fix.

I'm with you on Rollins. Why not just eliminate the distraction and get it over with.

"... a guy who forfeited free agency during a moment in history when the Phillies were the most despised team in town."

That's one way to look at it. Another way would be that the Phillies offered a multi-year extension (after a series of 1-year deals) to a player who had averaged .268/.325/.411/.735 during his 4 full Major League seasons, & was batting .263/.305/.383/.688 for the season at the time in '05 that said extension was signed. It turned out to be a great deal for the Phillies, but I seriously doubt J-Roll or the organization felt he was "forfeiting" a more substantial free agent reward at the time.

CJ: Everything I've read suggest Gillies might be as fast as Gose. They should have a match race. I like Gose better because he's 2 years younger and has power potential, which Gillies does not IMHO.

Saying that Gillies does not have the same contact issues as Gose is a big Duh! Gose is 2 years younger! Gose held his own (24 doubles, 9 triples) at age 18 in a tough league last year. Gillies was 19 when he played at that level and he played in more of a hitter's league than Gose did.

Gose will move up to Clearwater in the FSL, another strong pitcher's league. If he cuts down on his K's and steps up his power, that will be a good sign. He's yet another tools guy, but he shows far better skills than Hewitt, Golson et al.

If I were ranking the minor leaguers I would take into account age-for-league and park factors. Doing so, I would rank Gose higher than Gillies. I think he's upside is higher.

Cipper: Lieby was with the Phils for 13 years, 10 years as a full-time player.

With Aumont's stuff, phyiscal size and makeup, it would be stupid to ever think this guy will ever be a starter.

He has "future 8th inning/closer" written all over him, if he can stay healthy.

As for the 5th starter, I would guess Kendrick will be given every opportunity to earn this spot. By June, if they need to, I am sure Rube will trade for someone to fill this spot. Or maybe a prospect will have pushed for this slot with their early season work.

Its not a truly pressing issue anyway. The season will hinge on Hamels and Happ and not the 5th starter. And Kendrick isn't much different then most teams 5th starter. Most teams have "questionable" guys in their 5th hole.

Only way this becomes a big issue, is if one of the top 4 starters has an injury.

denny b: Agree with ytou on Aumont. I think his fastest patgh to the bigs is thru the bullpen. I hope they keep him there.

King Myno: "You guys might have talked about this before, but if not, anyone know how this is possible?"

I have absolutely no idea whether the Phillies owners are cheap b@stards pocketing millions or have set the limit so they break exactly even. But.. it is possible that $140mil is a reasonable limit, as it is a higher number than the Red Sox payroll in every year but one since their '04 WS championship.

"Some of our dimmer posters suggested exercising Rollins' option was a mistake. I'm struggling to understand why."

clout, perhaps it's because:

"Rollins is 31, was hideous at the plate last year, and has suffered huge declines in back-to-back seasons. While certainly not probable, the chance of his hitting .230 this season is real.

Posted by: bay_area_phan"


Of course, I would like to show everyone here what bap's defines as "hideous".

JRoll's 2009 season stats, and his rank among all 30 MLB Shortstops:

BA - .250 - 16th
OBP - .296 - 17th
SLG - .423 - 9th
OPS - .719 - 11th
H - 168 - 6th
2B - 43 - 2nd
3B - 5 - 10th (T)
R - 100 - 4th
HR - 21 - 3rd
RBI - 77 - 4th
SB - 31 - 2nd
BB - 44 - 11th
____________________
SO - 70 - 16th

The stats above the line are the "good" offensive stats. So, in a "hideaous" offensive year, Rollins managed to place in the top half of all MLB SS in most major offensive categories except BA and OBP.

Now, Jimmy hits leadoff (I know bap will go back to that) but still managed to rank 20th in ALL MLB- not just SS - in runs scored.

This is all I can really saY: That certainly doesn't fit my defnition of "hideous". Methinks our friend bap, and his Rollins bashing cohorts, have very high expectations of JRoll. I guess that's the price of success for Jimmy. Have a subpar year and the naysayers will rain down their insults.

In honor of our esteemed colleague from the Bay area, on this board I hereby will no longer be using the term "Negadelphia" to describe the Debbie Downers.

Thsough he is 3,000 miles away, I shall be using the substitute term "BAPadelphia" to describe them.

It is a term that fits. Indeed.


clout and denny b.: Aumont and the Mariners say the hip was NOT the reason he was moved to the bullpen, but I think that's some spin on their part. They do, however, acknowledge it would get him to the majors faster.

And Aumont, himself, says he prefers the bullpen.

He's more valuable to us if he develops into a middle of the rotation starter, but many believe he has a MUCH greater chance of developing into a back of the bullpen arm (set up or closer).

To be honest the depth of the rotation does scare me. I am one of those that thinks Cole will bounce back, you know Big Joe will give you what Big Joe gives you, which is consistent 6 innings and 3-4 runs per start, but Happ scares me I could see him as a guy that has a down year this year and then bounces back this year. Now this brings me to the 5th spot, I believe it should be Kendrick, from everything I have heard about him and what I saw from him at the end of the season, I believe he has learned from his time in the minors and could be a quality 5, but which is actually a 4 because like I said I think Happ will be more like the 5, but I am afraid it is going to be Moyer, I just feel that there is an obsession with him in this organization, and if he is healthy I feel like he will be the guy, so if that happens there rotation is going to be above average at best.

He feels "discomfort" in his hip while pitching...at Age 20.

Yeah, I'm sure he's fine.

But if he has a career ending injury or decides to take the short bus to crazy town this season, Rube just cost himself the 6.5 million difference between the option and the buyout. Not a smart business decision.

Yes, it's a bad business decision because either one of two highly improbable things may happen. What's more, as clout says, they likely wouldn't have waited until the end of 2010 to pick up the option. Meaning the window for this already highly improbable event is small, making the likelihood of it occurring and blocking the option even more unlikely.

BAP, any clue just how poorly Rollins would have to pay not to be worth $6.5M? Option out of nowhere? When's the last time a GG SS fell out of nowhere?

Its definitely a loyalty thing to Rube. I'm sure it made Rollins' day and Christmas and it shows some good faith after the whole Lee fiasco (which just ended badly...especially the giving Roy his number like that)

clout: This is absolutely my feeling on Aumont. "As for Aumont, he was put in the bullpen because he has a chronic hip condition as well as elbow problems. If the Phillies want to make him a starter and see what happens, God bless 'em."

Seattle, knowing as well as we do the starter/reliever value spectrum, made an assessment that he couldn't start. Wishing that away does us no good.

"Montgomery says the team is operating in the red? After winning and then returning to the World Series?

You guys might have talked about this before, but if not, anyone know how this is possible?"

Posted by king myno


Your Majesty, accounting mrthods (or tricks) permeate corporate America, and for anyone to think that MLB is any different is naive.

Forbes ranks teams and reports their "Operating Profit". Operating profit is essentially what it says it is, profits from operations, and usually for most companies - before taxes.

Now, if the Phillies owners are all paid "salaries" (it happens on many MLB teams) as opposed to a share of the "profits", those salaries are usually contained in an item called "SG & A" (Selling, General & Administrative Expense). These expenses are deducted BEFORE operating profit is reported - that is, operating "profit" is what's left after those expenses.

So, the Phillies' owners COULD be taking millions of dollars out of the franchise every year, yet reporting zero ( 0 ) operating profit.

Therefore, Dave Montgomery could be telling the "truth" when he says the franchise "loses" money, because the "bottom line" is negative.

However, if the owners are taking money out of the franchise as a "top line" expense, then there is a little bit of disingenuousness going on.

(I hope I wasn't too confusing.)

king myno: awh has made an excellent post of explanation to your query. Please allow me to add my own opinion of the General Partner, President & CEO's claim -

Monty doth protest too much, methinks.

Are we exaggerating Aumont's elbow problems?

He had some discomfort in June of 2008 and was sidelined for 2 months. He pitched in 44 games last year with no elbow problem at all.

Sophist, it's this simple:

Even in a year that coould really be described not as a "career year" but as a "career BAD year", Jummy Rollins ranked in the top half of SS in nearly every major offensive caregory in MLB.

And that's not taking into account that if he's not the best defensive SS in MLB right now, he's in the top 2.

25 other MLB teams should be so lucky.

(Perhaps we need to start a "bap Prozac Assistance Fund".)

CJ: We may be exaggerating a bit, but I think anytime a young pitcher has any type of arm issues you tend to be concerned that it could be something that follows him around his entire career.

Also...

Lots of owners take some year-to-year losses on professional sports franchises. But they know they'll get it back and then some when they sell their team at an obscene profit when the time comes.

"BAP, any clue just how poorly Rollins would have to pay not to be worth $6.5M."

Ok, last comment on this moot point. And my comment is this: you are missing the point. I'm not here to appraise Rollins' monetary worth, or whether a .235-hitting Rollins would still represent good value at $6.5M per year (although I doubt it). A guy can be decent value in a purely economic sense, but still not be the best option. If Rollins has a third straight year of declining offensive numbers, the Phillies would do well to take a hard look at the FA market. Mabye there could be guys out there who have some upside and won't cost $6.5M. Or maybe they'll conclude that even a declining Rollins is still the best guy for the job, given his price & his excellent defense. The point is: the decision did not need to be made a year ahead of time & there was no decent reason to make it a year ahead of time.

To be honest, I'm astounded that ANYONE would disagree with this rather commonsensical business proposition.

Skip: Drabek had Tommy John surgery. Seems a bit more serious that what Aumont had.

I guess I'd say we have a lot more reason to worry about his hip than about his elbow. Had it happened more than once, I may be concerned.

Besides, some arm trouble is almost run of the mill for young pitchers.

bap: "If Rollins has a third straight year of declining offensive numbers, the Phillies would do well to take a hard look at the FA market."

Here's your FA SS list for next off-season:
Shortstops
Juan Castro (39)
Alex Cora (35) - $2MM option vests with 80 starts
Craig Counsell (40)
Bobby Crosby (31)
Adam Everett (34)
Alex Gonzalez (33) - $2.5MM club option
Cristian Guzman (33)
Cesar Izturis (31)
Maicer Izturis (30)
Derek Jeter (37)
Julio Lugo (35)
Jhonny Peralta (29) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout
Nick Punto (33) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Edgar Renteria (35) - $10.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Jose Reyes (28) - $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Ramon Vazquez (34)
Omar Vizquel (44)

I suppose we could hope Reyes gets bought out, he'd be an upgrade.

CJ: Unlike others on this board, I am not clairvoyant and I don't know what will happen next year. Therefore, I am not in a position to weigh in on whether Rollins at $6.5M will represent better value in 2011 than all of those guys you just listed. If I had to guess, I would say, with some degree of confidence, that there's a very good chance he will. But I DON'T have to guess, and neither did the Phillies. But they did it anyhow.

As we bicker over whether to bat Rollins 1st, 2nd, 5th, 7th, or 9th... I find this little tidbit on Fangraphs:

"Most studies of batting order show that even using the optimal 1-9 slotting, you're going to gain only one or two wins."

b_a_p: Now that Roy Christ ... er, Halladay ... has come to town (OF HIS OWN VOLITION!!!), making business decisions based upon vague notions of "good feelings" & "doing the right thing" mean more than common sense. It's the new, cuddly Philadelphia sports scene. Isn't your heart just bursting w/ that old Kumbaya spirit?

bap: You'd be guessing next year, too, wouldn't you? The list of FA SS's isn't likely to change, except it will get smaller as any of the valuable players with options have their options picked up.

So which Izturis do you want at SS in 2011?

Maybe this information is more information the Phils used in determining that it made sense to go ahead and pick up Rollins now. The benefits (as listed by JW, clout and mike cunningham) are apparent, even if you don't think they are.

Roy's real full name is Harry Leroy Halladay III. No wonder he goes by Roy.

Now, since Jimmy Rollins bats leadoff, I went over to espn.com and sorted through all the stats for hitters that batted #1, with the limitation that they had to have had 300 PA in the #1 spot - there were 27 such players in MLB (I had to use 300 PA to get at least 25).

Here's where Jimmy ranked in 2009 against all of the other players who batted in the #1 spot:

BA - .245 - 20th (WOW, there were 7 worse?)
OBP - .292 - 26th (OK, that's pretty bad)
SLG - .413 - 16th
OPS - .704 - 25th
R - 93 - 6th (#1 job of the #1 hitter, right?)
H - 157 - 8th
2B - 43 - 2nd
3B - 5 - 11th (T)
HR - 18 - 3rd
RBI - 71 - 2nd
SB - 30 - 6th (T)
BB - 42 - 17th
____________________
SO - 70 - 16th


So, it seems that Jimmy's ability to slug and run helped him out a great deal.

But, would you still call all of the above numbers "hideous"?

BAP - I don't see the Phils declining the option next year unless Rollins is literally unable to play or falls so far off in performance. It's a $6.5M difference and he's a franchise player, whose offensive performance picked up last year, and whose defensive value is still high. Do you really believe that if Rollins has a 85-90 OPS+ that the Phils would explore the (weak) market for SS? Sign Cristian Guzman?

"Most studies of batting order show that even using the optimal 1-9 slotting, you're going to gain only one or two wins."

Seeing as how the Phillies missed the playoffs by 2 games in '01, '04, '05 & '06, & made the playoffs by 1 game in '07 & '08, those "one or two wins" are kinda important. J-Roll should be sent to the bottom half of the order for good, & if he complains Charlie can direct him to all of the posts on Beerleaguer about how happy, wonderful & comforting the early picking up of that '11 club option must make him feel.

G-Town Dave: Good point. Dismissing a one or two win difference is kind of funny considering the Halladay-Lee blockbuster swap most likely resulted in somewhere between a one and two win upgrade for next year.

Sophist, the Mayor of BAPadelphia does not believe that "the Phils would explore the (weak) market for SS".

However, he may think they "should".

The Phillies player payroll is $140 million. What do 81 nights in luxury hotel rooms for 25 players plus the traveling party cost? What about the free buffet for home games and stipeds for road games? How about salaries for the non-players in the organization - from Amaro to the scouts to the ushers? It's easy to see how a pro team loses money.

Jack: Not sure anyone is dismissing it... but I think you miss the point. Fangraphs says the "optimal" 1-9 slotting.

Do you know what the optimal slotting is?

There are a couple dozen "experts" here on Beerleaguer, and even they disagree on what the "optimal" lineup is.

Harry Halladay is a workaday superhero's name.

Bobby, the players' clubhouse dues pay for those buffets, not the team.

One thing I've learned from reading Fangraphs is that Fangraphs is never ever wrong and that their analysis is the ONLY way to look at things. Any other viewpoint is ruthlessly smacked down.

CJ: Yeah, I don't know what the "optimal" lineup is, but I do know it doesn't start with Jimmy Rollins.

Jack, the Phils may have one or two more wins in 2010 by simply having a Lee or a Halladay for the entire season.

Now, will "average" Halladay be the difference of two more wins MORE than "average" Lee would have?

Beats me. I'll leave that answer to the SABR guys.

Jack: You suspect it doesn't. It's impossible for you to know.

And since it's mostly guess work, teams aren't likely to gain even a win in shuffling a lineup and may be just as likely to hurt themselves.

That's the point.

Is the possibility of 1 win worth pissing off a team leader and sowing discord?

I doubt it.

Especially if Rollins reverts back to a .330 OBP guy with power. At that point, I doubt there is much advantage at shifting the lineup.

With especially balanced lineups, it's hard to make bad decisions about construction. What's more, to find those optimal RS lineups, you usually do more than move 1 guy. It's likely that this ideal lineup has most players in new, unrealistic slots. If you run through one of those simulators, a lot of the best lineups not only have Utley first, but Ruiz second. I found a bunch that said the Phils would score 833 runs if Feliz hit 3rd. You get the point.

Additionally, this whole process is anything but certain. The Phils scored 820 R last year. The baseballmusings.com simulator has that lineup scoring 791 R (4.886 R/G) (using aggregate stats at each position). It only takes into account OBA and SLG, so maybe it's worse than other theoretical simulators.

For a lineup that goes CF-2B-RF-1B-LF-SS-3B-C-P, Phils theoretically scores 4.958 R/G (803 R). 8 more runs. That's less than a win.

Utley should never ever bat 1st. His power in the 3 hole is worth far more than his OBP is at the top. Utley is a classic 3-hole hitter and one of the best in the game.

Its a damn shame we didn't get Holliday last year...could you imagine the WS lineups?

SS Rollins
2B Utley
LF Holliday
1B Howard
RF Werth
DH Ibanez
CF Victorino
3B Feliz
C Ruiz

That is even better than the Yanks lineup...we probably would have won and it would have only cost us Michael Taylor.


NEPP - You'd trade a half season of Holliday for Taylor? Remind me not to make you my GM when I buy the Phils from the current group. What's worse is that the Cards paid more than Wallace. There were two other prospects in the deal. Lost in all this are the Rockies who got Gonzalez and Street.

The Cards definitely "needed" Holliday, but they seem to have made out worse of all three teams.

Oh God no...I'm just saying that lineup would have been pretty tough.

CJ: There've been several studies of "optimal" lineup based on average stats by position and they show an improvement with the pitcher batting 8th.

I like Rollins as much as anyone on here. But if the guy goes roller blading and wrecks his ankle for the next two years, the Phillies pay him the 6.5 million difference. That's just bad business.

Hey, if they really love Rollins, why not give him a raise. I suppose with all the good will and patting Ruben on the back over picking up his option, we should certainly be in favor of kicking in a couple of million more. Imagine how happy Jimmy would be then. And just think how much better he'll play.

I can see few here have ever had to run a business of any kind. There was simply no reason to pick up the option unless they were going to give him an extension at the same time and save some money in the nearterm.

I didn't see Jimmy rebating some of his salary when he stunk for the entire first half of the season, hitting a Bruntlettesque .205 Imagine how much we'd love him if he'd only given the Phillies a check back then.

Anyone being negative on the Phillies picking up Rollins' option really has to get their head checked.

Honestly, if I was J-Roll I'd want the next two years of my contract ripped up and a new one signed with an extension for market value.

As I recall, SABR studies by Tango et al also showed that the 2 most important lineup spots are 2 and 4 and that your 2 best hitters should go there.

aksmith - Your post is so nonsensical in parts that I'm not sure whether to take it seriously.

****Honestly, if I was J-Roll I'd want the next two years of my contract ripped up and a new one signed with an extension for market value.****

Yeah, maybe he should hold out in training camp.

Sophist - As your name implies, most of what you've been spouting is sophistry. No, of course I'm not serious. I'm merely extrapolating the arguments of and others.

Of course in this market Rollins is worth 8.5 million dollars two years out. But there is a reason it's called an option. You exercise it when it is beneficial to you. If you think a little good will from Jimmy is worth risking 6.5 million that might be wasted, then why wouldn't you toss him a few more million over these two years to really let him know he's loved?

See how well it worked with Jamie Moyer? But I guess he's too short or trending downward. Or he's merely . . . interesting. I guess that would be the BL way of saying it.

BTW, I love him to death and am happy he's been extended, but Rollins really isn't a very good leadoff guy. He really an ideal 6th hitter, where you want someone with power & speed, if possible. It's also a spot where OB isn't very important.

Moyer really better stink horribly this season or aksmith, BAP, CJ and a bunch of other posters are gonna look like smacked asses.

Ideal Phillies lineup, worth 1 more win per season based on conclusions of sabermetric studies:

Utley
Ibanez
Ruiz
Howard
Werth
Rollins
Victorino
pitcher
Polanco


Moyer may not even make the starting rotation out of spring training - he may not even make the team

clout: That lineup makes me sad. Not because Rollins is batting 6th (I, too, feel that's his ideal slot), but because it suggests there's actually something to Tony La Russa's annoyingly über-cerebral management style.

Clout - On the contrary, I would love Moyer to be great this season. My suspicions, based on nothing but his age and the number of surgeries/bouts of sepsis etc. he's undergone is that he will not be.

But just his being on this team was enough to keep Cliff Lee from being on it salary wise. I'd say that's a pretty strong reason to wish his two year contract had been a one year contract. And we also know that Ruben was bidding against himself. No other team on the planet was bidding on Moyer last season. So it's fair to conclude that Ruben gave him that dollar amount and extra year for "good will." He knew Jamie was popular. And he knew he's a good baseball ambassador. Don't the same two conditions apply to JRoll? I sure think they do. And he's very popular among African Americans, a dying demographic in baseball. Doubly important.

But I would be happy to appear to be a smacked ass if it meant Jamie won 12 games and had an ERA anywhere in the ballpark of 4, and he made 30 starts, keeping the team in a lot of them.

What if Jimmy's wife/girlfriend whacked him on the knees with a 9-iron after she caught him cheating?

"BTW, I love him to death and am happy he's been extended, but Rollins really isn't a very good leadoff guy." clout

clout, I'm just curious, but what exactly do you consider a "very good leadoff guy"? (It's a subjective term, you know.)

I've posted numerous times on this board, the MLB statistics for guys that both bat in the #1 position in the lineup, and also lead off innings.

Rollins grades out, at least statistically, as above average.

Personally, I agree that he's not "very good", but if you really take a look around MLB - even going back 20-30 yrs. - there aren't a lot of guys I would label as "very good", much less "great".

If you evaluate them based on OBP, the top active "leadoff" hitter in OBP is Jeter, and he ranks #15 in MLB (and he hasn't hit leadoff his entire career). The next one on the list is Ichiro at #25. Next up is Grady Sizemore ar #36.

So, I think you need to use other stats besides OBP to do a complete evaluation.

goody: Who cares? Jimmy looks good in red, smiles a lot & probably helps old people cross the rough streets of Oakland all off-season long. Picking up his option right-freakin'-now was the best move in the history of the franchise, dammit! It was a no-brainer!

The "interesting" thing is that anyone would find exercising J-Roll's option early controversial. Spring training can't come soon enough.

If his girlfriend did that, I'd personally thank her for driving Tiger Whatshisname off the 24 hour news cycle.

Clout: I assume your comment about Moyer means you were happy with two years for him and are predicting a big season for the old guy. Won't you look like a smacked ass if he doesn't have the big season you're predicting? Don't answer just yet. Take a year or so to think about it.

Just to gove some perspective, courtesy of b-r.com, the following are the 2009 MLB stats (both leagues) for leadoff hitters:

1st Batter G
.271 .332 .409 .741 [4860 PA]

Leadoff Inn.
.265 .326 .430 .756 [43,339 PA]

Batting 1st
.278 .347 .410 .757 [22,878 PA]


Jimmy Rollins Career
1st Batter G
.279 .309 .461 .770 [1,061 PA]

Leadoff Inn.
.264 .305 .425 .730 [2,328 PA]

Batting 1st
.278 .334 .456 .790 [5,045 PA]

Old Phan, this is BAPadelphia, a political and psychological entity all it's own, where every Phillies move is subject to criticism, and nothing any Phillies' GM, FO or player ever does is good enough! :)

jerrry: If Moyer's healthy, he'll make the team, but it could be in a bullpen role if KK (or some as yet unknown third candidate) out-pitches him in spring training. Whatever role he ends up in, I certainly hope he stinks up the joint, as I sure don't want to looked like a smacked ass.

smitty, I must have missed it. Was it in a prior thread? Where didc clout predict Moyer would have a great season?

awh: You've apparently not been around the last few days, when I've written countless posts defending both the Lee & Halladay trades.

aksmith: If Moyer has a bad year, I have a sneaking suspicion that clout will assure us that it's really a good year.

awh: It's not so much that clout predicted Moyer would have a great season in '10, it's that he still doesn't think Moyer had a bad season in '09. Not that I blame him, mind you. No one wants to look like a smacked ass.

It was subtle, awh. He said those of us who weren't happy with the second year and/or amount of Moyer's contract would look like smacked asses unless Moyer is awful this year.

From that post, I think it's reasonable to infer that Clout is fine with that second year and amount being paid to the old man. Otherwise, if he is also unhappy with the contract, he'd be calling himself a smacked ass if Moyer is bad.

And I don't think Clout would ever call himself a name. Seems a bit out of character for someone who is so, shall we say, interesting. So, I have to assume Clout is fine with the Moyer contract and expecting big things for that 8 mil.

****Don't the same two conditions apply to JRoll? I sure think they do. And he's very popular among African Americans, a dying demographic in baseball. Doubly important. ****

So, your theory on why Jimmy's option was exercised early is Affirmative Action?

Interesting.

I hope Moyer makes the team and has the best season of any 47 year old in history.

"I hope Moyer makes the team & has the best season of any 47 year old in history."

Oh, I don't. That would mean Jamie had a better year than did Satchel Paige in 1953. As you know, Satchel Paige is very popular among African Americans, a dying demographic in baseball. I'd hate to watch all of the goodwill gained by picking up Jimmy's option early squandered so callously. Why, the entire organization would look like a smacked ass! :-o

Okay...the 2nd best year by a 47 year old in baseball history.

NEPP: Oh, alright ... I suppose I can get behind that idea, then.

just think of the fan excitement when we extend moyer for another 5 years, guaranteeing we'll see him win his 300th game in a phillies uniform. when's the last time we saw a 300 game winner pitch in philadelphia? exactly.

Oh we all hope Moyer has a great season, but we all expect the worse and it could come down to eating his contract like we did with Eaton, and Jenkins. Why keep someone on team that can not help, bullpen or starter. He did pitch well out of BP last year, so its a good guess thats where he will end up.

Wow, Bob Klapisch on si.com is saying thr Mets should trade Santana.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/klapisch-mets-should-trade-santana-121809

Says no matter what they'll not going to compete this season.

The issue isn't that Moyer can put up average stats for a 5th starter. It's entirely possible that he can put up a season with around a 5.00 ERA, which as Clout points out, is about average for a 5th starter.

The issue is that there are a LOT of guys who can put up a 5.00 ERA, and for a lot less than 8 million dollars. Clout likes to pretend money doesn't matter, but as we saw this week, it quite clearly does. We traded Cliff Lee because money matters.

It is entirely plausible that if we weren't committed to paying Jamie Moyer 8 million dollars this year, we would have Cliff Lee in the rotation still along with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels. That's the issue with signing Jamie Moyer to the 2-year contract before last offseason.

Jack
We all agree it was the stupidest signing of Moyer for 2 years, but as of this moment theres nothing we can do about it but complain. Between Lees trade and now Moyer we sure been doing a lot of that lately.

****Don't the same two conditions apply to JRoll? I sure think they do. And he's very popular among African Americans, a dying demographic in baseball. Doubly important. ****

So, your theory on why Jimmy's option was exercised early is Affirmative Action?

Interesting.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well, NEPP. Since some folks on Beer Leaguer like to misrepresent what people write, I in no way implied Jimmy Rollins is an affirmative action signing. That's just stupid. The guy is a talented major league ballplayer and a big part of the Phillies' success. He's earned every penny he's made and more. And he's done it completely on merit. (It occurs to me that maybe you don't understand what affirmative action is?)

But, like Tiger Woods used to be in golf, Jimmy is also a shining beacon for Black youth in America, calling them to the baseball field to try their luck at America's pastime, which they are doing in ever shrinking numbers.

I know exactly why the Phillies exercised his option now. (And I don't find it anything more than a distraction move by Rube.) What I was struggling to find a reason for was why some here on BL seem to think this is a bold stroke, a great move, or in the least bit a mitigation of the money driven disaster that took place with Cliff Lee this week.

Jack, someone posted it before, but NL league average for 5th starters was something in the 6.25 ERA range.

If Moyer pitches to a 5.00 ERA in 2010, one could say that he'd be an unqualified success. :)


Speaking of SP, did you know that only 18 SP in the NL pitched over 200 innings (not counting both leagues: Lee would make 19)?

Did you know that 161, yes, that 161, different pitchers started a game in the NL in 2009? That's 10 per team.

Did you know that the very disrespected and "unvaluable" Joe Blanton - the pitcher who has received very little love on BL the last 72 hours - was 21st in IP in the NL (22nd incl. Lee)?

Did you know that Blanton pitched more innings in 2009 that the following pitchers: Lowe, Looper, Hamels, Carpenter, Zito, Gallardo, Nolasco,Oswalt, Lilly, Kershaw, Zambrano, Harang, Santana, Pelfrey, Sanchez, Suppan, Cook, Volstad, Kawakami, etc., etc., etc.?

"What I was struggling to find a reason for was why some here on BL seem to think this is a bold stroke, a great move, or in the least bit a mitigation of the money driven disaster that took place with Cliff Lee this week."

smitty, did I just see you - in the same post as the quote above - make the accusation that "some folks on Beer Leaguer like to misrepresent what people write"?


Maybe I missed it, but who wrote it was a "bold stroke" or a "great move"? I couldn't find it anywhere.

Most folks seemed to be saying it was understandable.


Be careful of who you accuse of misrepresentation. You might get a surprise when you look in the mirror.

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