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Sunday, December 13, 2009

Comments

Good news for David Herndon I suppose.

I was/ am a fan of Condrey's. He got hit with the business end of the arbitration process. 34 year old fringe bullpen arms who spend significant time on the DL should expect to find themselves out of work. It's a fact. No ill will but, not a surprise. Good luck to him. Maybe he finds his way back in the Spring.

As for the Capps speculation, that guy is a crap shoot, not an investment. I'd rather watch him pitch to the Phillies than for the Phillies.

Exactly, Jason -- I have to think this gives Clay Condrey 2.0 (Herndon) a better shot of sticking.

What I don't quite get is why the Phils would be so intent on saving the $850K or so that Condrey (career xFIP: 4.43) would be making, while tendering Durbin (career xFIP: 5.06) and risking paying him upwards of $2 million. I mean, if they really wanted to save money, wouldn't the opposite course of action have made more sense?

or Scott Mathieson, I suppose...

From the end of last thread regarding Matt Capps


AWH: He did battle some arm injuries last year so obviously you would have to do a pretty extensive medical check-up on him but he's worth it if they are willing to spend the money, They offered Chan ho 3 million apparently so they could do the same for Capps.

Hugh- He's far from a crapshoot. He had one bad year in his 4 year career. Really good BB/9, K/9 and K:BB ratio. Also, he's only 26. I think the arm troubles had a lot to do with his struggles last season. If he checks out healthy though he's easily worth what you would've paid Park.

PhillyFriar: "What I don't quite get is why the Phils would be so intent on saving the $850K or so that Condrey (career xFIP: 4.43) would be making."

Because he wouldn't be making $850K. He had a career year last year on a salary of $650k, has 3 years of MLB service and ranked 58th among the 153 NL relievers in the Elias Rankings and was a Type B. He easily would've made $1.5M in arb and, depending on what the Phils would've offered, could've made $2M. That's why he was non-tendered.

As for his skill set, he's a competent middle reliever with a bad career K/BB ratio and below average stats vs. LH hitters. I'm guessing most Beerleaguers think he'll duplicate his career year from here on out, but I don't.

As for why Durbin wasn't non-tendered, I'm guessing it's because he's better than Condrey, his Elias ranking much higher (Type A), he's younger, he can start and maybe he's willing to sign at a reasonable price.

TTI: Dead on. Capps is a superb prospect who had injury problems. He's less of a crapshoot than most bullpen guys.

this from a Pitt beat writer on the release of Capps :
"Foremost, how will this release help the team? Fact is, the Pirates need exactly what Capps can bring when he pitches anywhere close to how he did his first three seasons: 3.97, 2.28 and 3.02 ERAs. He is 26, has a strong arm, a history of impeccable command and an established ability to get the final three outs."

Seems like exactly what the phils need as well.

My take on Kenneth "David" Herndon based on what I've read: Heavy sinker, low 90s, no secondary pitches, command still a work in progress as attested by his 1.2 HR/9 which is pretty high for a sinkerballer.

If he could develop a better second pitch (he throws a slider and changeup, but has no clue where they're going) he could be a pretty good MLB reliever.

Chances of breaking camp with the Phillies this season: 1 in 1,000.

We won't pay Condrey $800 K but we're willing to pay Durbin more than twice that...yeah, that makes sense.

CY: Exactly right that beat writer is.

To me the reports were the Phillies wanted a guy who could be in the back end of the bullpen and possibly close should he be needed. It's almost crazy how perfectly he fits what they were looking for.

Like I said- they were going to give Park 3 million and Capps is easily worth that. Check his arm out, and talk to him about filling the role you have. If he checks out, and will do the role it's a no brainer.

Plus- you'd have an easy 7 inning game almost everyday with Capps, Madson, and Lidge at the end of the bullpen.

Matt Capps has at least got the best middle name of any RH reliever...

I have to think also that the FO strongly believes that Mathieson would've beaten out Condrey for the last bullpen spot.

Add me to the CY, TTI Capps bandwagon. I'd be happy to go to war with this bullpen:

Middle relief:
Kendrick, Mathieson & Durbin

LOOGY: Romero

Setup: Madson & Capps

Closer: Lidge, on a short leash.

Which of those would you replace with Condrey? In my mind, none. And it might make sense to throw $1M at Eyre as insurance in case Romero is still hurt or the kids (KK & Mathieson) fall short.

Sign Capps and Eyre and Rube's bullpen work is done as far as I'm concerned.

Maybe crapshoot is too harsh but, he was godawful last year. His track record will get him 2 years at $7-8MM, I'd wager. He definitely had a couple very good years but, he's not exactly a physical specimen who you count on to have a long run of success. It could just be that I watched the wrong games last year but, in the Pirates games I watched (mostly as an ineffective cure for insomnia), his velocity was good but his stuff was flat and staying up in the zone. He had some arm trouble in '08 and last year got nicked by a batted ball in teh elbow but, I never perceived injury as the reason for his ineffectiveness this past season. He just couldn't get 3 outs often enough. If the objective is to get a guy with closer potential in case Lidge goes down, do you really sign a guy who was Lidge, Jr. last year in the closer's role?
(And if anyone starts telling me how his BABIP shows he was unlucky, I'd like to bust out a highlight tape of hte line drives that earned him that dubious mark)

I'll miss Clay. He had one of the best lines in "The Pen". When asked what historical figure he'd like to have dinner with he replied, "John Wayne." Classic.

i give it a week till he's an astro

"I'll say this right now: IMHO non-tenderring Condrey will prove to be a mistake."

Beerleaguer love for Clay Condrey borders on the bizarre. How does non-tendering a 34 year old, mop up man, register on the rictor scale.

Posted by: mikes77phillies


Ummm, mikey, nice way to take a quote out of context. How about including the rest of the post:

"Based on how well he has pitched the last couple of seasons he will find an MLB contract somewhere, and pitch better than someone in the Phils 'pen."

If that happens then it will "prove to be a mistake".

Next time, be a little more honest.

Sophist, you think Madson - as a reliever - was "unproven" going into 2008? Really? Go back and check his stats as a releiver up until 2008.

High: Here's the way I look at it. Capps has spent 4 full seasons in The Show. Here are his ERA+ for those seasons:
117
191
139
71

You can say the first 3 seasons were a fluke or you can say the last season was a fluke.

pb: That's a pretty good bet. He's from Texas, Wade signed him and he'll earn far less for the Astros than he would've gotten in arbitration here.

BTW, I don't expect Everyday Clay to duplicate the last 2 seasons.

As the 7th guy out of the 'pen in a mop-up role I would have expect an ERA in the 4.50 range - league average.

As I posted above, that will be better than someone in the Phils pen in 2010.

"Middle relief:
Kendrick, Mathieson & Durbin

LOOGY: Romero

Setup: Madson & Capps

Closer: Lidge, on a short leash.

Which of those would you replace with Condrey?"

Durbin for sure, and possibly Kendrick (who will almost certainly need to be in the rotation at some point anyway). Also Mathieson, Romero, Capps, and Lidge all have HUGE question marks next to their names. Condrey has been pretty damn good at what he does the past two years without exception and is more of a sure thing than probably anyone else but Madson. With that said, yea he's not that great. But he's been a valuable, cheap piece for us who is comfortable in the role he has played for the team.

awh: That's a pretty easy bet to win. When is the last time any major league bullpen didn't include a pitcher with an ERA above 4.50?

Oh, and for all of you Matt Capps fans - don't lose any sleep in wild anticipation that Jr. is going to sign him.

He hasn't shown any inclination yet this offseason to sign the relievers with the better track records to market value deals. I will be very surprised if he changes that approach to Capps. Someone else will probably step up and give Capps either more money or more years than the Phils will.

Remember the Zolecki quote I posted on the last thread?:

"The Phillies' payroll is pushing $140 million, which seems to be their limit. That might explain why the Phillies haven't made much progress in finding bullpen help -- they are trying to get pitchers under market value. And if you're a pitcher, why would you do that?"

clout, I have a question:

If Mathieson would have beaten out Condrey for the last spot, does that mean Matieson is going to be able to pitch multiple innings in a mop-up role?

I might be in the minority, but i'm ok with Durbin>Condrey.

As for why Durbin wasn't non-tendered, I'm guessing it's because he's better than Condrey, his Elias ranking much higher (Type A), he's younger, he can start and maybe he's willing to sign at a reasonable price.

Clout, please wrangle me up a statistic that shows that Durbin is better than Condrey. ERA? ERA+? FIP? K/BB? WAR?

And "he can start"? Come on. If Chad Durbin gets anywhere near a major league rotation at this point, Amaro and Manuel should be committed.

Condrey would have made less than Durbin this year, and he's a better pitcher. This isn't Beerleaguer irrationality over a fringe player here, it's just simple facts.

rjb360:
Durbin ERA+ past 2 seasons: 152, 97.
Condrey ERA+: 134, 141.
Durbin WHIP: 1.32, 1.47
Condrey WHIP: 1.51, 1.21
L/R OPS split differential
Durbin: 203, 0
Condrey: 147, 170

We are not talking about a huge difference in results. BUT, Durbin is 2 years younger has better stuff and can start. To me, that's enough to make him the more valuable piece given the big bump in salary that Condrey would've gotten in arbitration.

Clearly, however, this decision was driven by dollars not the evaluation of how well Condrey has performed.

Capps speculation is dead on. There's no chance that the Phillies don't jump at the chance to pick up a failed Pirates closer. See, e.g., Mike Williams, Jose Mesa.

"You can say the first 3 seasons were a fluke or you can say the last season was a fluke."

Right now, I'm not looking to call either a fluke. He was very good for 3 seasons, got hurt. Results were not flukey. He was very bad last season, on merit. Ineffective, not flukey. I'm not ready to call it a fluke, either. He could be very bad again and, if he is, it will be at a high price. It could also be the Pittsburgh-effect whereby talented guys peter out after 3 years or so of the same team results and prognosis. Wouldn't be the first guy to rebound once he sheds the black and yellow.

PhillyFriar: Yes indeed Condrey was better than Durbin last season. And I have no doubt you think Condrey will continue to duplicate that career-best season from here on. But when I evaluate a player I try to look at the big picture. Durbin was clearly better than Condrey in 2008, so they're two year tenure here is basically a wash (although Elias ranks Durbin much higher).

So, as I said above, the fact that Durbin is 2 years younger, has better stuff and can start makes him more valuable.

I'm confused as to why either player's Elias ranking matters as to whether you tender them a contract for arbitration or not. It's not like they're free agents; there's no draft pick compensation coming.

Condrey was a true Phillie during this little golden age run, and I'll remember him, but it was the right move to non-tender him.

How much do people think Capps would sign for? Seems to me like he could probably sign somewhere that would give him better chances to get saves and be a closer than here, so I don't think we'll end up with him. He'd be a nice pickup though, depending on price. He doesn't strike out enough guys to be a dominant late-inning reliever, but he doesn't walk anyone and is good against righties, which makes him a valuable piece in a bullpen. Surprised the Pirates didn't tender him an offer and then trade him and try and get something for him from a contender desperate for bullpen help.

awh: "If Mathieson would have beaten out Condrey for the last spot, does that mean Matieson is going to be able to pitch multiple innings in a mop-up role?"

If he can't, he won't make the team. I'm speculating the FO thinks he can.

BTW, Condrey pitched 42 innings last season.

Jack: Elias rankings are part of the arbitration process in making a case for a player (i.e. used by one side or the other in making their cases.) It is one of the things that the arbitrator is allowed to consider in making his decision.

awh: there was another report that said the Phillies offered Park 3 million for one year. Capps is easily worth that.

My general understanding was that the Pirates would have tendered him for about $2.5MM but, that his counter in prior negotiations was high enough (guess $4MM+) that the Pirates simply wouldn't risk letting an arbitrator determine it. It may even be that Capps' agent did right by his client and antagonized teh Pirates into non-tendering him. You can question the wisdom of the Pirates brass or, if you're me, you can question their intent to field a competitive team next year vs. the intention to continue to plow money into prospects, but it seems pretty clear that Capps wants to make something in the $4-5MM range.

Jack: Your assessment of Capps is 100% correct. I think the Pirates bungled it and will wind up paying whatever Capps would've gotten in arb for a lesser pitcher. The money going to FA relievers so far is higher than expected.

BTW, just to make it perfectly clear, and so I don't get accused of being president of the Chad Durbin fan club, I would've had no problem if the Phillies non-tendered Durbin as well. In fact, had they signed Park, I think Durbin would've been non-tendered. I am simply defending the Phillies choice between Condrey or Durbin. I think they made the right choice.

My guess is that one big reason they tendered Durbin is they don't think they can get Park back.

I really hope Durbin isn't going to be counted on to fill CHOP's role next season. That would be tought to swallow. Even worse would be for Durbin to end up starting somehow.

With Putz signing for 3mm + incentives, you would think that we could put together a similar deal. 3.5 mm and incentives for closing out games (which is a very real possibility with Lidge).

Do you really think Condrey would earn as much as Durbin, clout? I agree with you that they have been similar in results the past two years. Wouldn't it make sense then to keep the one who earned $1MM less last season if it's dollars they are worried about? I'm not going to pretend I know what each one will wind up earning, but I will be surprised if Condrey makes more than (or as much as) Durbin.

Durbin has been less consistent, but had a huge year two years ago. I tend to place value on the consistency Condrey has shown compared to Durbin, hence our disagreement on their respective values. Over the past four years he's been remarkably dependable. Stats:

BB/9
D: 5.2, 3.5, 3.6, 6.1
C: 2.8, 2.9, 2.5, 3.0

HR/9
D: 1.6, 1.5, 0.5, 1.0
C: 0.9, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9

SO/9
D: 7.0, 4.7, 6.5, 8.0
C: 5.0, 4.9, 4.4, 5.4

Career ERA+
D: 89
C: 105

Out of all these, it's really the BB/9 that kills me with Durbin - it's something that my eyes have noticed and stats confirm. Those are the things that catch up to you in the late frames (see Lidge, Brad). It's also what probably accounts for his larger fluctuations in performance. The ERA+ is also a little unsettling - Durbin has posted an ERA+ > 100 only ONCE in his career during that incredible outlier 2008 season.

This isn't the end of the world. It's just something I would have done a bit differently.

****Capps speculation is dead on. There's no chance that the Phillies don't jump at the chance to pick up a failed Pirates closer. See, e.g., Mike Williams, Jose Mesa.****

Both All-Star closers...

Oh and Mesa went to the Pirates after us, not before.

"Condrey would have made less than Durbin this year, and he's a better pitcher."

Shocking.

Condrey is not better than Durbin. Saying Condrey is better than Durbin is like saying Blanton is better than Hamels. Condrey had a slightly better statistical year (while being injury plagued).

Conrey would have challenged for 2 million in arbitration because of his ERA last year. Durbin will only get a slight raise due to service time. They would have mede close to the same money.

Keeping Condrey over Durbin would have saved $1 million and probably given us the same level of performance. Its a puzzling move to say the least.

Per Fangraphs, here are their respective 2009 values:

Condrey: $700 K
Durbin: -$2.0 Million

****Conrey would have challenged for 2 million in arbitration because of his ERA last year. Durbin will only get a slight raise due to service time. They would have mede close to the same money. ****

That's funny considering that most reputable sources have Condrey likely making around $800K through arbitration BECAUSE of those injuries.

awh - if you think the lesson of the 2008 pen is that the Phils should pay a premium on relief pitching (no matter the role of the reliever), you are wrong. You're right about Madson (I was distracted by his 2006), but that is besides the point.

The point is that Madson was an internal option making less than $1.5M (about what the Phils were set to pay Condrey) but with a career WHIP as a reliever around 1.2. The rest of the guys named were picked up off the heap (Romero, Seanez), at near-bottom value (Lidge), or with some creative though (Durbin).

Condrey is simply not worth the premium. The Phils can piece together his likely production for much less. The Phils gave raises and extensions to their success stories from 2008 and look what they got from those guys in 2009.

So why are we gonna reward Durbin with close to $2 million?

He'll almost certainly get at least a small raise on his $1.6 million in 2009.

NEPP: We get that Condrey had a better year than Durbin. You provide nothing new. The issue is who is the better pitcher for the money.

BTW, who are these "reputabe sources" reporting that Codnrey would've made $800K in arb? He easily would've made $1.5M for reasons stated above.

BTW, just to make it perfectly clear, I'm not the president of the Clay Condrey Fan Club. He is what he is. I just feel that with the situation the Phils bullpen is in (Lidge & Romero - big question marks as to their health, Mathieson still a question mark, not knowing which Durbin will show up, and other questions, I just think it's imprudent to let a decent arm walk.

*****NEPP: We get that Condrey had a better year than Durbin. You provide nothing new. The issue is who is the better pitcher for the money.****

I think we should have non-tendered both...but if we're gonna keep one, at least Condrey is cheaper.

Both Zolecki and Lauber mentioned the $800 K number.

If it were me, I would have non-tendered both and then used that $3 million to go after a guy like Capps or give Park more money.

I'm not sure it's a safe assumption to think that the Phils had a choice between Condrey and Durbin. Durbin may have agreed to come back for less, for example.

Over the last two seasons (WHIP, HR9, K9)

Condrey: 1.396, .8, 4.8
Durbin: 1.392, .7, 7.2

I'm also fairly sure Durbin has been in tighter spots in the last two years (esp in 2008).

BB~

I'm with you. Condrey and Durbin would've been ok. My buddy way out yonder thought Condrey would be non-tendered based on comments made by Amaro about the 'pen when he didn't mention Condrey. I disagreed with him. He was right.

I'm glad Durbin will be back but the fact remains that currently the 'pen is still not better than last year. Rube is trying to save $$ wherever he can and to me that money is for Doc. But what if we don't get hom? How is Rube gonna fix the 'pen when everyone signs elsewhere? The anwer is the 'pen probably won't be better and I'm afraid we're gonna have to live with that.

I could see Eyre re-signing (ok) and Smoltz and Mc Dougal coming in. I can't say I'd be thrilled with those two, although they're both able to pitch the 8th and 9th.

If Durbin had even average control, he'd be a great reliever as he does make outs...however, his BB rate is brutal (career and last year).

not a big deal, but i would have kept condrey over durbin.

Granted Amaro is likely to make a couple of moves yet for the bullpen but the bullpen as currently constituted has a ton of question marks and zero depth.

If they went into the season right now, it would be eerily similiar to the bullpen they went into the 2007 season with. Banged up closer who is an injury concern, 1-2 solid options (Madson), a lack of left-handed options, and 2-3 unproven solutions.

We all saw how that worked out. I have a feeling that this team would likely face the same one as the 2007 although the starting staff would likely be much stronger - a team that has to get good starting pitching and score a lot because their bullpen stinks.

"That's funny considering that most reputable sources have Condrey likely making around $800K through arbitration BECAUSE of those injuries."

NEPP: No way. When have you ever heard of a pitcher with over 5 years of service time AND a an ERA of 3.00 getting 800k.

Good luck finding him. It probably happened in the 80's.

The Phillies saved over a million dollars by non-tendering Condrey. For 300k, They can let Herdon come in and eat innings in 6-0 games.

Although I am not a Chad Durbin fan, it is downright disrespectful to say that Clay Condrey is a better pitcher than him. Their stats can't be compared because they don't pitch in the same situations.

Durbin often comes into games against good hitters in crucial parts of games. I can't remember more than two occaisions where Condrey faced a good hitter in a tight game. Condrey pitches to nobody's, with 6 run leads, for the most part. The Phillies ask Chad Durbin to pitch to the David Wrights and Manny Ramirezs, in the 7th inning of close games, with men on base.

Your ERA will be higher, when you are used like that.

Your ERA will also be higher when you walk 6 batters per 9 IP.


I'd be happy if neither were brought back personally.

"Your ERA will also be higher when you walk 6 batters per 9 IP."

Touche'

AWH~

I couldn't agree more on Capps. Phils will not sign him. Rube has shown he's unwilling/can't spend big money on relivers so why start now?

Capps would be an ideal fit for our BP...its a shame if he were to go somewhere like the NYM instead.

Found this amusing blurb in Capps's Wikipedia entry:

"This was the kick start to his new role as the Pirates' closer. It was also the time they decided to add an extra 11 minutes to his PNC entrance video."

Link to said video

Durbin is definitely better than Condrey. Almost 90 innings in 2008 and one of the unsung heroes of that season, particularly in the first half. Not surprisingly, broke down in 2009.

Honestly though, Durbin really only had 1 good HALF of a season with us. He was spent by Aug 08 after pitching 59 innings in the first 4 months of that season.

Aug-Oct 08: 28.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.786 WHIP
2009: 69.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.478 WHIP


So yeah, JW, you have a point.

I'm suprised someone has'nt brought up the fact that Kyle Kendrick can fill the '09 role of Clay Condrey for 450k.
Why pay Condrey 1.5-2mill, when you already have a better, younger, pitcher available for 1/3 the price?

On another note: I hope they re-sign Chan Ho, but not for a cent over 3m for 1 year.

Also: Eyre can take a hike too. Another BL superhero.

KK will very likely end up as a starter at some point in 2010...you can't count on him taking over a BP spot like that.

Eyre won't be missed as he's not worth $2 million+ despite his ERA.

Bastardo/Escalona can handle the 2nd LOOGY spot.

Beerleaguer favorite and former can't miss prospect TJ Bohn signs minor league deal with the White Sox

Durbin was never as good as he was before Charlie auditioned him in a quasi-setup role. Why does that happen to relievers? Everyone from Tyler Walker to Ryan Madson. When pushed past their comfort zone, they fall apart ...

"KK will very likely end up as a starter at some point in 2010...you can't count on him taking over a BP spot like that."

Starters: Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Moyer. Bastardo spot starter (With Drabek at AAA).

BP: Lidge, Madson, Romero, Chan Ho(or replacement), Durbin, Kendrick, Bastardo and Herndon.

Unless the Phillies dump Happ and or Blanton in a deal for Hallady, I don't see the Phillies making the mistake of starting Kendrick again.


I like Clay. I don't think he's better than Durbin. Considering how many arms we used last year, I'd like to keep everyone who pitched worth their salt. However, I understand it's a business, and if it's believed that Escalona, Bastardo, or KK - or whoever - can fill Condrey's role for a fraction of the cost, then it's just good business sense to let Clay go. - I feel he could sign on anyway, doesn't anyone else think so?

I like Eyre, too, and would like to see him back. But the reliever I think the Phillies most need to retain from the perspective of value to the 'pen, is CHoP (and Durbin who it looks like they'll keep). I hope he has an epiphany where he realizes he's a far better reliever than starter, and resigns with us.

Starting to see the same erroneous and flawed thinking you saw alot on here 2-3 years that the Phils can simply fill 3-4 spots in their bullpen with internal options like Escalona, Bastardo, Kendrick, or Mathieson.

They can but will likely have a pretty mediocre bullpen at best and much more likely to have a below average/poor bullpen if they do.

My bet is Amaro makes at least 2 bullpen FA signings (probably more if you include minor league deals) although they may be of the Value Village type.

Given that I bet that the Halladay trade doesn't happen, it is very likely that Amaro's performance this offseason will be judged on how he rounds out the rest of the pitching staff including the bullpen.

It was the #1 issue going into the offseason and remains an even bigger one with Condrey, Eyre, and Park as FA now.

mikes - we started about 10 different pitchers last year. someone posted a list a couple threads back. KK will almost certainly get the ball at some point.

Well, KK started for us last year twice and we will use a good number of starters next year as we do every year. 2008 was the exception to the rule.

I will bet that KK makes at least a handful of starts next year despite having Bastardo and Drabek ahead of him on your depth chart.

"KK will very likely end up as a starter at some point in 2010...you can't count on him taking over a BP spot like that."

"Well, KK started for us last year twice"

How exactly, does Kyle Kendrick starting two games, preclude him from taking Condrey's spot as mop-up man?

mikes is right. CHOP made 7 starts last year and still managed 50 IP as a reliever. Condrey threw 42 IP total last year. He's averaged just over 53 in the last 3 years.

The Phils should have a lot of options and flexibility. Amaro is far from done with the 'pen in any case.

"Durbin was never as good as he was before Charlie auditioned him in a quasi-setup role."

But for one half-season Durbin has been throughout his career, at best, a mediocrity, whatever the role. Same can be said for Tyler Walker. Madson represents an interesting case, if one discounts the issue of sample size. Certainly at least a few relievers excel or maintain upon promotion--few closers, for example, begin as closers.

Relievers do about as well as their talent-level allows.

I would love to see smoltz and capps rounding out the bullpen...maybe I'm higher on mathieson and bastardo than most but i think if lidge rebounds and madson slides back into the 8th inning I see the bp being a strength. I think the biggest problem last year was merely lidge/eyre/romero being hurt - having them healthy and given that bp pitchers are crapshoots year to year, I'm not too worried. Capps was incredibly unlucky last year (babip about 70 points above career average), has posted some very solid years, and is still only 26. I'll take him for sure.

Also, speaking of unlucky...how much for Wang? babip almost 100 points higher than is normal for his career, GB pitcher. I wouldnt mind seeing that if the phils can convince moyer to retire.

just lidge and romero healthy...I'm not too interested in bringing eyre back.

We have to get Capps and then replicate that entrance video. I'll buy a six pack, which I was going to pass on this year since you can't get Red Sox and Mets tickets together and they are limiting you to only 2 Mets games.

GrandSlamSingle, thanks for posting that.

capps is an extreme FB pitcher. no thanks in cbp. esp. if he costs $4-5 M.

Hell no on Capps. He'll get whiplash in Philly.

As for Condrey, I've always felt he was a quality bullpen arm who was much better than many thought. That being said, there are dozens of pitchers out there that can do what Condrey does for much cheaper and that's where his Philly days will end.

Not getting the Durbin haters. Sure he's no Cy Young but he's a decent long man with a tendancy to get knocked around a bit but also with a tendancy to be great. I recall him shutting down the Red Sox for 3 innings in one game last season. He's ok in my book and I'd hang on to him.

We now know who's been non-tendered. And the Phils are still sittng on the sidelines waiting to fill out the BP. Another wasted weekend.

I think Chien-Ming Wang should be considered. He's a decent groundball pitcher when healthy and worth taking a flier on.

I suppose it was inevitable that "Buster Heyman" would break out the Wang talk...

OT: With talk of the Phillies clearing salary to take on Halladay... Would the Phillies be better off shopping Raul Ibanez to the Red Sox? There is talk in the Boston globe, that Jason Bay is out of Boston.

I would rather see the Phillies move Ibanez, than move both Happ and Blanton to make room for Halladay. Since Taylor is almost ready to take Ibanez's spot, trade Ibanez to Boston for a mid-level prospect and offer Drabek for Halladay.

First off, you need Durban on the team because nobody else (not the real guys atleast)Tweets on the team.
Next I want to know where Brunt is, has he been let go yet, I don't want to see him again.
Finally I have been seeing all these expert "prognostications" from "guys" several people know personally here. What happened? Was there not supposed to be some giant trade or signing happening here this weekend?

Durbin:

- He did struggle last year but he admitted that he was hurt for several weeks before he finally went on the DL on July 23. He just didn't say anything because the Phils bullpen was a bit short-handed in June with a bunch of injuries.

Durbin's biggest issue last year where there just appearances where he couldn't throw a strike to save this life. He still was tough to hit though including a low BAA (.222) and an ability to get Ks (K/9 of 8.01).

The thing that strikes me as incredibly odd is that according to Fan Graphs - Durbin largely abandoned his slider and pretty much became a 4-seem fastball/cutter pitcher last year.

My bet is that if Durbin is healthy and able to throw his slider a bit more next year that he will rebound as long as Cholly doesn't drive him into the ground again by August.

Bill James has Durbin at

66 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.55 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, .262 BAA

My bet is that Durbin has a slightly stronger season as long as he is healthy and can use that slider. I would say:

~75 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP with similiar K/9 and BB/9 to what James says.

Wow, I keep seeing guys like mikey77 post things about Durbin and Condrey, things like:

"it is downright disrespectful to say that Clay Condrey is a better pitcher than him. Their stats can't be compared because they don't pitch in the same situations.

Durbin often comes into games against good hitters in crucial parts of games. I can't remember more than two occaisions where Condrey faced a good hitter in a tight game. Condrey pitches to nobody's, with 6 run leads, for the most part. The Phillies ask Chad Durbin to pitch to the David Wrights and Manny Ramirezs, in the 7th inning of close games, with men on base.

"Your ERA will be higher, when you are used like that."


Then I went and actually did some homework by looking at their career splits. This is what I found:

Condrey

High Leverage .259 .349 .370 .720
Med. Leverage .273 .343 .450 .793
Low Leverage .296 .351 .434 .785

Durbin

High Leverage .279 .368 .426 .794
Med. Leverage .288 .369 .493 .862
Low Leverage .266 .339 .419 .759


It seems Durbin is a better pitcher than Condrey in low leverage situations.

Great post awh. I suppose u got me.

Now, how about posting the number of times Condrey actually pitched in high leverage situations. Check Bill James 2008 and 2009 guides for the numbers. Can you say, "Sample size".

Dishonest nonsense, you posted.

Yo, newer thread

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EST. 2005

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