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Monday, December 14, 2009

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lol. nice graphic

OK, so how does replacing Lee with Halladay make the Phils stronger WS contenders this year?

I'd hate to see Lee depart.

Gotta think the negotiations between the Big Red Dog and the Phils on an extension went extremely poorly. That Dude has to be right. The Phils probably see virtually no chance that they can extend Lee. If that's the case, this does make sense. But damn Halladay, Lee and Hamels made me horny.

OMG OMG OMG

Who would replace Lee's bat in the lineup, not to mention speed on the basepaths?

This is more exciting than the Cody Ransom signing!

If Lee is involved, I'd have to think that Happ, Drabek, Brown and Taylor are all off the table. At most, I would only give up a 2nd/3rd tier prospect like a Hewitt or Bastardo.

Halladay may be better than Lee, but he's also much more expensive in 2010. The cost certainty in future years offsets that for sure, to the point that strictly from the Phils perspective, Lee/Halladay shouldn't be much more than a wash trade.

this is good news as long as we don'thave to giveup anything else but Lee. Halliday, Hamels, Happ and Drabek.. come on people, this is pretty damn goooood

Lee?

If Lee is included in this deal. Count me out. Especially if we lose either Brown or Taylor. If Lee is used to secure prospects and we keep Brown and Taylor then I'll feel a little bit better.

Any other scenario that would leave us without a roation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels would leave me for the lack of a better term... limp.

It sounds like the FO has determined that they are getting Halladay, and that's why they were exploring Blanton's trade value. Nobody bit on that, so Lee was the next trade candidate...

IF they do this, it is for the long-term (next 3 years or so) rather than the short-term, cause it seems very lateral for next season.

<...Currently removing the marbles from the envelope I was going to mail Amaro...>

I've been a phan for 45 yrs and these are the BEST of times! This only used to happen up the friggin Jersey turnpike. We ARE the ELITE!

Why does this make us better if we have to lose the playoff Ace for us Lee??? I don't understand why we are getting excited over this? isn't it trading apples for apples?
why do it then?
whats the age diff anyway between Lee and Doc?

Where is the BL'er Brain Trust on this one?

Cliff Lee is a really good guy/player, and I'd hate to see him go. I'm sure Amaro tried to make a straightup deal happen and failed. I'm sure he also gets the sense that signing Cliff isn't going to happen.

If Halladay comes with 4 years on his contract then I guess I'm in...

dammit. i want them both.

Halladay is my favorite pitcher in the league.

It is very bittersweet to get him if we have to give up Lee though. I got very used to the idea of having 1 year of Lee + Halladay.

Maybe we will also pick up a reliever from one of the teams. That will make it a lot better

Nice to see Rube target a player and go after him, and to see the FO pony up the $$. Got to respect that

Rich - Doc is older. The difference is that Doc will sign a reasonable extension, Lee will not.

And DPatrone just posted that the deal is Halladay + cash to the Phils, Lee to Sea for 3 prospects, those 3 + Taylor to Toronto.

What do We get from the Lee trade? Prospects to replace Brown/Taylor?

Agree that if this goes down as reported, lose Lee but get Halladay, it is mostly a latteral move for this year. But it has to mean that Lee was going to walk at the end of this year. That's why it makes sense I suppose. It is going to be very interesting to see what else we give up.

Gillick again|

From previous thread: How many more playoff games can Halladay win than Lee did last year? If they aren't going to pair the two of them, what's the point of burning the money and the prospect(s) to bring Halladay here. How many "extra" regular season wins is Halladay likely to be worth over Lee? 1? I like Halladay, but I'm not fond of a deal that sends Lee out of town without a serious return.

Losing Lee hurts. If we have both Lee and Halladay, we're back in the World Series. If we give up Lee, but retain all of our prospects, okay, that's a good trade for one reason: we lock up an ace pitcher for years at a fixed salary, instead of having to negotiate with Cliff Lee next year. Lee apparently wants to see what offers he'd get, and I don't blame him, but if the choices are Halladay for 4 years at a fixed price, or 1 of Lee and then we lose him/pay 18 million, I say go with Halladay.

We end up w/ Halladay and no bullpen piece(s)? plus Taylor? At least we didn't decimate the farm.. but I thought we'd snag a reliever.. from either team

I like keeping Happ, but I'd rather keep taylor.

Lee+Taylor for Halladay and cash? Hate to say I feel kinda "eh".

Here's a sub-thread: Is there a chance we've overlooked Rube's greatness? Pulling the trigger on Cliff Lee for peanuts, swapping Burrell for Ibanez, both clutch moves in getting us back to the WS.

Is there a *chance* our very own Ruben Amaro Jr. is the shrewdest GM in baseball?

Chew on that, Beerleaguer.

Ok Just got off the phone: What I'm being told is:
Re-post from the last thread:

We get Halladay and cash;
We 3 prospects from the Mariners which we send to Toronto with Taylor. Happ is not in the deal.

3-year extension for Doc.

RobbyJ~ Yes I was floored when we got Lee. helluva deal by Amaro. He had to do it. But not signing Lee to anextension last year brought us to where we are now.

MVP~ This is why I love stirrin' up the pot. I am guy everyone loves to hate.

ChrisinVT~ I wouldn't say it makes us dtronger contenders. But what it does do is makes the rotation stable and not so LH heavy. Lee told us that he wasn't signing here. Rube's got little choice but to move him. Now I wanted them both too. I'm hoping we get a reliever either from Seattle or Toronto.

Rube I owe you one. Now you can fix the 'pen. Take your time.


I'd be reluctant to let Lee go but the fact is it looks like he is asking for a contract that only the Yanks or the Red Sox would be equipped to give him. If that is the case I think it's a smart move by Rube to trade for Halladay and sign him to an extension. Especially if it means not moving Taylor, Brown, or Drabek. The team will be a playoff contender if not a World Series contender for years to come. I would like the move even though for the present it seems lateral.

Rich:
It's not apples for apples, and here's why. You have to assume that the Phillies' attempts to extend Lee beyond 2009 have been rebuffed. So you're looking at

(1) A 2009 rotation headed by Lee and Hamels, followed by "Unknown" in 2010 and beyond

OR

(2) A 2010-11 (and maybe 2012?) rotation of Halladay + Hamels

Don't get me wrong. I'd LOVE to have Hamels, Halladay, and Lee for 2009. We all would. But Amaro is thinking BEYOND 2009---if these reports are to be believed. You get the maximum number of years from the best arms, not the maximum number of arms for one season.


I would rather have Halladay then Lee period. Only becomes more true if it's easier to lock Halladay up for the next few years. Lee may have immediately priced himself beyond anything the Phils wanted in future years. I'm not sure there's a world in which the Phils have both pitchers or Lee alone for the next few years.

That said, any reservations I have about the deal are about what else the Phils have to give up besides Halladay.

"And DPatrone just posted that the deal is Halladay + cash to the Phils, Lee to Sea for 3 prospects, those 3 + Taylor to Toronto"

I understand the departure of Lee in order to get Halladay, but I just threw up in my mouth thinking about losing Taylor, too. Wonder if a Werth re-signing is part of this decision???

Would trading Taylor make it more likely that phan phavorite Werth sticks around?

i want them both. but let's not forget that Halladay is a significantly better pitcher than Lee. fwiw.

Halladay had a 155 ERA+ last season. That's absolute dominance. I would have thought Lee had fewer walks than Halladay as well. Nope. Halladay had all of 35. That's nuts. I see it as an upgrade over Lee, and I think he's going to rip the ass out of the National League. Need to see the rest of the trade particulars, but ... come on.

Unlike halladay, Lee hasn't seen the big bucks. Sure the 25 mln or so he has made in his career isn't chump change but he hasn't recieved that big payday. No way Lee is signing an extension in lue of FA unless there is either an overpayment involved.

Clearly it has been determined that Halladay will sign reasonable 3-4 year extension and it would be unlikely that the Phils would meet Lees contract demands in FA after this season. You get cost certainty, which the phils value

I mean you really shouldn't give up much additional in this trade since it doesn't clearly make you better for next year, though you pay for the right to extend him. Since it seems like a given you would be Halladay's top choice in FA after this year anyways, why give up prospects when you already have a comparable pitcher for this year.

Let us hold out hope that somehow it is Blanton that is moved for prospects which are then combined woth some of ours to get Halladay. I mean I'd rather pay 9mln for one year of Lee than 7-10mln for one year of Blanton next year. And if the prospects are enough you should be able to get some salary relief from Toronto to keep your budget intact.

As a fan, I'd love to mortgage the future, trade our top prospects and mow people down in 2010. But long-term/logically, if you can keep Happ and Taylor/Brown and move one of the OFs and the Lee-acquired prospects (or something like that) for Halladay AND lock him up for a while, that's a move you gotta make.

And I assume that's the plan.

JBird: You're evaluating the trade based on the conventional Beerleaguer premise that we'd pair Halladay & Lee and go all in during our one-year window in 2010. Amaro seems to be operating on a different premise. I think the purpose of this trade is to expand that window of opportuity beyond one year, by getting one of the best pitchers in baseball & locking him up for several years.

If you think of Lee & Halladay as roughly equal, then think of this deal as the equivalent to locking up Lee for several years. The truth, however, is that, as much as I like Cliff Lee, Halladay is a better pitcher.

I wonder if the Halladay extension component would have swayed Amaro on the offer he rejected last season?

If this deal is as speculated, then it is definitely less romantic than the ideas everyone built up about a rotation with both Halladay and Lee. At the same time, we've only got one year of Lee before he walks, so I'd rather have multiple years of Halladay. Still, I'd think one year of Halladay should be about equal to one year of Lee, so I wish we wouldn't lose a prospect in the process.

Still, probably the right move... even if it isn't preferred.

thanks to ChrisInVT and Stand_Pat for your insights, I wasn't aware of that info.

ChrisinVT: "OK, so how does replacing Lee with Halladay make the Phils stronger WS contenders this year?"

Although you and most Beerleaguer posters don't believe it, Halladay is better than Lee.

I'll like the deal a hell of a lot more if you can guarantee a "head out of his ass" Hamels as the #2 next year.

Gotta admit, though, the future is clearing up nicely. Especially if Dom Brown is the real deal.

Don't know if anyone saw this and/or posted this previously, but this sheds some light on Lee's involvement in the Halladay deal. From NBC Sports.com:

John Heyman reports that Cliff Lee is willing to do an extension with the Phillies, and that that wild idea of Rosenthal's about Philly maybe trading Lee right now isn't happening, but that if the Phillies want Lee beyond 2010, it's gonna cost them: $23 million a year. No hometown discount.

Lee thinks he's worth Sabathia money. Maybe he is on an annual basis on a short deal, but I can't help but think we've seen his best. This will obviously be a big year for him.

Pretty interesting if true, no?

I only want to include one of our prospects along with Lee if we get a 3rd base prospect to keep. :-)

Heyman tweets:

3-way trade agreed to with halladay going to phils, cliff lee to mariners. phils trying to lock up roy now.

I want Halladay.

Especially if he can be extended for 3+ years. I think Lackey's contract is encouraging, especially if Halladay is willing to give the Phils a "discount."

When was that posted R.Billingsly?

This just in:


Let's wait for word about the deal from real people instead of just going off the whims of whomever DPatrone has invented in his head.

If it ends up being we gave up Taylor than so be it but sorry if I'm not going to just accept DPatrone's word for it.

clout - I AGREE that Halladay is better than Lee...but how many more WS games would Halladay have won this season? Replacing Lee with Halladay doesn't make the team better in a 7-game WS. That's my point...It might make them a couple wins better in the regular season, but that's not really my concern.

SI_JonHeyman Twitter

3-way trade agreed to with halladay going to phils, cliff lee to mariners. phils trying to lock up roy now.

CY: Of course, I closed the link. I'll have to see if I can find it again. I stumbled upon it accidentally.

"Lee+Taylor for Halladay and cash? Hate to say I feel kinda "eh"."

I USED to feel kinda the same way until I looked at it like if we don't make the deal we lose Lee anyway after this year. At least this way we have Halladay for 3 years and we trade Taylor but we have Brown still. There has to be a give/take somewhere.

I believe Lee has made around 14 mil for his career thus far. + 9 million for 2010. He's 31. Who can blame him for wanting to test the market.

Maybe we're getting back more. I don't know.

I get the feelingthat Rosenthal's weekend hunch wasn't a hunch. He clearly had a source.

Heyman reporting a deal is in place!

CY: I guess it wasn't that hard. It was posted on NBCSports.com today, at 12:45 pm

the more i think about this deal the more i like it. not only was Halladay better than Lee last season, but remember 2007? Lee's a fan favorite, and well-deserved, based on what he's done in his short time here, but who knows when he could have another season like that.

Seems smart: Send a guy packing who just proved he's got serious stones in the big moments for a guy who hasn't pitched in the Playoffs.

"Lee+Taylor for Halladay and cash? Hate to say I feel kinda "eh"."

I USED to feel kinda the same way until I looked at it like if we don't make the deal we lose Lee anyway after this year. At least this way we have Halladay for 3 years and we trade Taylor but we have Brown still. There has to be a give/take somewhere."


Yeah, i'm coming around! Just as someone said, I had "the big 3" in my head. JW's post about the 155+ and 35 walks helped a bit!

Bittersweet. Love Halladay though. I will have his jersey IMMED!

BAP- Not saying Halladay isn't the better pitcher, but The Phils are trading for 1 year of Halladay. The Blue Jays have no power to grant the Phillies extra years of control. Only Halladay can agree to that. So, when you are talking about 1 year of Halladay vs 1 year of Lee, is that worth a Mike Taylor and $6.75 million? I say no. But, there maybe other pieces involved. Blue Jays have a very deep bullpen. But, I still think it's a heavy price to pay for a marginal increase in projected wins.

ChrisinVT: You do understand that short, post-season series are a total crapshoot don't you? That the Nats could've beaten the Yanks in a 5 or 7 game series if Lannan, Zimmerman, Willingham and Dunn had gotten hot at the same time, right?

No one builds a team to win a 5-game series. You build a team to win the division and then hope the right guys get hot post-season.

MICHAEL TAYLOR WHERE ART THOU? I WILL MISS THEE (and Lee)

ChrisinVT: There's not a scenario in the world you could put in front of me that would make us any more likely to win the World Series.

Playoffs, by their nature, are a bit of a crapshoot. Roy Halladay gives us a better chance than Lee of winning our division. He's a better pitcher.

JC on a pogo stick i am exhausted

robby j, I was just thinking the same thing myself.

Does anybody wlse remember some of the dreck we had to watch, and some of the crap they signed and traded for during the dark years from the last '80s through '00-'01? And don't bring up 1993, that was wonderful, but it was an outlier.

The Phillies STUNK for a long time.

I like this version much better. I'm amazed that it's the same ownership group.

I gotta give Rube credit for trying to take care of next off-season's issues this off-season, when the Phils would seem to have a bit more leverage. I just hope the execution is just as savvy.

I definitely understand the logic behind Halladay being clearly better than Lee (if not by a huge margin), and Halladay being easier to lock up long-term than Lee. but this presumptive trade, on balance, still leaves me kind of cold. it leaves several significant issues (back of the rotation, bullpen) unresolved and since I'm assuming the Phils will be at their cap, effectively ends their offseason.

don't get me wrong, I would absolutely love to see Halladay destroy the NL for the next 5(?) years in a Phillies uniform. but I'm not seeing this as a real significant move for the Phillies on the level of trading for Lee in midseason 09.

Would be nice to get something from Seattle for Lee - seattle is giving up just future players and all going to Toronto. Hopefully maybe one future to us??? Seattle is probably getting Lee like we did last year, but they will have him the whole year. They Seattle is going all out this year to win it all.

If the trade is as DPatrone described, then it's essentially Michael Taylor for 3 years of Roy Halladay (I'm assuming a 3 year extension). That's how you have to look at it. In which case, it's more than reasonable.

Deal done says SI. Lee to Seattle.

Forget Doc...who's the 5th starter going to be?

hmmm, via twitter Heyman is sort of backtracking on the inclusion of Lee.

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/6673202446

"sorry, quick trigger finger. #mariners definitely the third team. checking now with cliff lee is the pltcher they get."

All this excitement has me with a thought...

BLers which is the better 1-2 punch. Hamels/Halladay or Felix/Lee?

Hopefully we're getting a decent reliever from Seattle. They've had a good bullpen for the past few years. And, if most of the prospects come from Seattle, that's a very good thing for us as well.

Still, I'd prefer both Lee and Halladay to be in the rotation. I guess with Halladay's salary that's just not in the cards.

Gotta agree with any sentiment of Lee not wanting to negotiate an extension. If the Phils thought this was going to happen, Lee never would be offered in a trade.

Heyman is confirming deal....

Brian G: It's 6 years of a cost controlled Mike Taylor for exclusive negotiating rights to locking up Halladay a year early. There's no reason to believe he wouldn't have been willing to sign with Philadelphia next offseason.

I love me some Cliff Lee, but he's young and wants to test the free agent market next offseason and will command top dollar. Halladay will command big money too, but I think he desires to be on a team that is a near lock for the playoffs, as are the Phils, and will sign an extension to do so. So, if the trade is essentially 1 year of Lee's services for multiple year's of Halladays, then I'm all for it. Rube is a crafty S.O.B., so I'm excited to see how this pans out. I've got my credit card ready to purchase the jersey.

MVP: Tough call. Slight edge to Phillies?

I feel like a true BLer for not completely loving a trade that brings the best pitcher in the game to Philadelphia. I know Lee would be tough to lock up later on, but does it make the staff THAT much better swapping him for Doc? As someone said above, it's a marginal improvement. AND they lose guys will probably play in the bigs. I'm delusional, right?

btw RAJ has balls the size of the Death Star.. wow

I'd rather include another prospect from our end and make it Blanton to SEA. Lee still brings draft picks if he leaves as FA after 2010.

TTI~

Let's get 1 thing straight. I don't invent anything. I passed on info as I got it.

here is the morale to the story...this time next yr we will read about cliff lee signing with....the Yankees

clout - Are you really going to argue that a playoff rotation of Lee, Halladay, Hamels doesn't have a better shot at beating the Yankees and winning the WFC than a rotation of Halladay/Lee, Hamels, Blanton because the playoffs are a "crapshoot"?

I'm not an idiot, and I know that the team is upgrading by getting Halladay to replace Lee. But Lee/Halladay/Hamels is a potentially dominant playoff rotation, while Halladay/Hamels/? is not. The Phils still have to hope that Hamels rebounds and they're in the same position as they were this past postseason where they have no idea who their 3/4 starters would be in the playoffs. They didn't trust Blanton or Happ enough to rely on them then, I doubt they do now.

supposedly we got the doc

JBird: I'm pretty sure you're wrong. It is not unusual for a deal to be contingent on one team's ability to lock the player up within a 72-hour period. The Santana trade worked the same way.

If they can't lock up Halladay, the whole thing is off. If they can, then they will have traded one year of Lee (plus Taylor or some other propsect) for multiple years of Halladay. It is NOT one year of Lee for one year of Halladay.

JBird: Phils trade for Halladay will include an extension.

Bay: I am not sure eithier. It is very very close. But if the Mariners acquire Lee, Bay and Figgins they are going to be improved a great deal.

Few thoughts:

1. Halladay simply put is a better pitcher than Lee. I don't know how people argue otherwise. Halladay has dominated playing in the AL in the toughest division in baseball the past 2 years. Lee is a very skilled craftsman. Halladay is a performer.

2. Too bad the Phils need Happ for the rotation because now is the perfect time to sell high on him. His value will never be higher and there is no way he duplicates his same performance next season.

3. Really hope the Phils do their medical due diligence on this and don't get sold a bill of goods with Halladay like they did with Garcia.

Yeah, it is not the same thing but there are an awful lot of rumors going around about just how healthy Halladay is. Where there is enough smoke, there is usually some fire. A huge extension with an injury-plagued Halladay (and the one they already have with Lidge) would seriously crimp this team's payroll flexibility and competitiveness.

4. I am sad to see Taylor go if he gets moved. He might not be a dominant performer at the MLB level but he is a guy I can see being quite valuable who does a number of things at an above average level.

5. Fascinated the Mariners are the 3rd team if true. They have totally taken the "Value Village" approach and only signed
Figgins because they had a fair amount of money being freed up. Guess they see an opening with the Angels losing Lackey potentially and see Lee being as a potentially dominant pitcher in one of the tougher parks to hit HRs/an outfield defense that is among the best in MLB. Lee/Hernandez would be the best 1-2 in MLB.

Everybody chill out. This time next year the natives in the hills will be singing folk songs about Rube after he signs Cliff Lee as a free agent. Bloody genius he is.

The reason it's a great deal is that we don't have to give up any prospects to get this done and that Halladay wants to sign long term with the Phillies, and that Lee wants to test Free Agency!

Guess Rosenthal wasn't an idiot...

ChrisinVT: And just how was this Lee, Halladay, Hamels rotation going to happen?

BAP: That is exactly right.

We have the "Dumb Post of the Day" courtesy of MetsBlog:

"Honestly the phillies rotation isn’t much better than the Mets….we beat them with santana over halladay

Hamels isnt much better than pelfrey and everyone else on the phillies are old while the mets rotation is young"

Bed Beard - I guess not...but nobody has a "hunch" like that play out that quickly. Clearly he had some inside info.

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