Beerleaguer 5 questions with ESPN's Jayson Stark

ESPN senior baseball writer and author of “Worth the Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies" stops by with his insights before heading off to a 6 p.m. book signing at the Barnes and Noble in Rittenhouse Square.

Beerleaguer: The difference between the Yankees' table setters and the Phillies in the World Series cannot be overstated. You recently suggested that lead-off gem Chone Figgins would not only carry a high price tag, but constitute a tough sell for Jimmy Rollins. Be that as it may, how much more rope are they willing to give J-Roll if he struggles the way he did last season?

Stark: That's a tough question to answer in 25 words or less. Charlie Manuel loves Jimmy Rollins and the energy he brings to that team. But there's no doubt that the manager and the hitting coach (Milt Thompson) want Jimmy to get back to having better at-bats. For a couple of years, starting with his hitting streak in 2005 and running through his MVP season, Jimmy seemed to have a great feel for his swing. In the same period, while his walks didn't increase that much, he was much more willing to work counts and look for his pitch. But the last couple of seasons, he's gotten away from that because he seems to be trying too hard to duplicate his MVP numbers. So they've talked to him about this. But it remains to be seen how they'd react if he has the same kind of approach next season. Let's just say that both he and the Flyin' Hawaiian should take note of this team's interest in Figgins and Placido Polanco, even though it's unlikely they'll wind up signing either of them.

Beerleaguer: It's shaping up to be another sluggish offseason for free agent signings. The Phillies have started off with an economic upgrade in Juan Castro. Should we expect more value signings, and are the Phillies basically maxed out at this point?

Stark: I don't think that "maxed out" really describes them. They have money to spend, and they're going to have a record payroll (close to $140 million). But they need to find an every-day third baseman, and they need to make an impact bullpen signing, or maybe several. So that's where their money is going. And that'll pretty much eat up the signings budget. If they sign any combination of Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre, Brandon Lyon, Mike Gonzalez, etc., I can promise you those would definitely not be on-the-cheap type signings. They wouldn't be at Sabathia/Teixeira dollars, but they won't be million-dollar-a-year players, either. There will be some more of those, though, to fill out the bench and bullpen. But I see at least two significant signings at some point.

Beerleaguer: The Phillies have traded offense for defense at third for several seasons (Pedro Feliz, Abe Nunez, David Bell, etc.). Are you worried what a defensive downgrade such as Mark DeRosa might do to the confidence of the pitching staff?

Stark: That depends on whether DeRosa winds up being the every-day third baseman or something else. If he's the guy they sign -- instead of Beltre, who can play the heck out of third base -- I think they'd use him at other positions, too. DeRosa's greatest assets are offense and versatility, so it wouldn't be out of the question to see him play some left and some second base to spell Ibanez and Utley. I don't know if I like the idea of the "regular" third baseman also being the primary backup at two other positions, but they've kicked that around. Then again, it's not a slam dunk that he'll be the guy they sign. And other than Beltre, everybody on their shopping list would be a defensive downgrade from Feliz. There's a price to be paid for that. The question is whether the pros outweigh the cons. I'm a big DeRosa fan, so I'd vote yes. He'd be a major step toward balancing out this lineup.

Beerleaguer: Would the Phillies consider trading Cole Hamels?

Stark: Now? No chance. None. Nada. Why would they? This guy doesn't even turn 26 for another few weeks. He's younger than most of last year's big rookie-of-the-year candidates: J.A. Happ, Jeff Niemann, Randy Wells, Ramon Troncoso, etc. Compare his overall '09 numbers (strikeout ratio, WHIP, K/BB ratio) with Cliff Lee's sometime. You'll be shocked how close they are. And remember this, too: Cole Hamels has s been great every year of his pro career until last season. Great. So with Lee's future so uncertain, they can't even consider trading a pitcher with that much upside. And they aren't.

Beerleaguer: Which prospects have the Phillies most excited?

Stark: Domonic Brown and Kyle Drabek are the clear 1-2, and there's a big dropoff to everyone else. They love everything about Michael Taylor, but I still sense they're skeptical he'll ever be a star. They like Travis D'Arnaud a lot as a potential Catcher of the Future. And while Anthony Gose is really, really young, he's the clear-cut Centerfielder of the Future. They have a ton of pitching prospects. But Drabek looks right now like the only one with top-of-the-rotation upside. The big name to file away is Domingo Santana, a 17-year-old outfielder from the Dominican who's already 6-5 and 200-plus, who looks like an offensive monster. The ETA might not be till 2013, but if he stays on his present path, look out.

The "Worth The Wait" book tour has cranked back up for the holidays. So if you're in center city Philadelphia tonight, Jayson will be signing books at the Barnes and Noble in Rittenhouse Square at 6 p.m., alongside Phillies broadcaster Chris Wheeler, columnist-laureate Bill Lyon, Philadelphia baseball historian Rich Westcott and ever-popular Philly TV sports guy Steve Bucci.

Comments

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Love it. Nice job, JW.

[thephaithful]

Great grab JW - Stark is a clear Philly fav.

also..I cant wait til Michael Taylor becomes a star.

[Jimmie J.]

Beerleaguer: Would the Phillies consider trading Cole Hamels?

Stark: Now? No chance. None. Nada. Why would they? This guy doesn't even turn 26 for another few weeks.

When the Phillies go for Ryan Zimmerman, Hamels will be history.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Jimmie J.: Your obsession with Zimmerman hasn't gone unnoticed.

[Len39]

Good interview JW, cool to see stuff like this on the site.

A few subjects after catching on the last few posts:

Schneider- Love the signing. Big upgrade at backup catcher. We wouldn't do better than this as a backup.

Werth- If I'm him after losing the early part of my career to injury, I'm taking the biggest contract I can get after this season. This is my last shot at a really big deal, especially if I crank out 35 HRs again. With Brown and Taylor knocking on the door the Phils will spend the money elsewhere.

Lowell- He is very intriquing at 3B, especially with the Red Sox willing to eat half his salary. He is still a .290 hitter with power and while he has limited range, he still played good defense last year and made some really nice plays. Injuries are a big concern and he is plodding on the basepaths. However, if you can get him at $5-$6 million for a year and take the $4 million you are saving on Beltre and spend it on bullpen help it could be a good deal. I think Lowell would demand the signing of someone like Jerry Hairston Jr, who can pinch run late in games and be a defensive replacement. In addition, Hairston can start once a week and rest Lowell. You could sell Hairston on getting a lot of ABs between resting Lowell, Rollins, Utley and occassionaly Ibanez (although those ABs would go to Francisco) and pinch hitting. Lowell would look great batting 7th in this lineup and is a winning ballplayer that would fit right into the clubhouse.

Bullpen help- At the end of the day this is where we need to spend the most money. There are a lot of good relievers out there. I'm looking forward to seeing what Armaro comes up with. If Mike Gonzalez was even a remote possibility I'd go cheap at 3B to spend the money on him. This is where Lowell could end up as a bargain next to what Beltre or Figgins would cost.

[Brian Quinn]

Goood stuff, thanks for posting. The Phillies NEED two impace signings - 3rd base and bullpen.

[Iceman]

It sucks that we even have to make this decision, as I love both players. But am I the only one who would look to keep Werth (even with the pricetag) and trade Vic? Anyone? Bueller?

[awh]

Good stuff - Jason on Jason. ;-)

[mikes77phillies]

Mariners offered Adrain Beltre arbitration. If I'm Beltre I run to the phone to accept. He will make in one year, what he would for two in free agency.

Cardinals offered Derosa arbitration. Hard to call that situation. His skill suggests that he should'nt get an offer for more than he maded last year, but some dumb team will probably offer him multiple years for the same money. Something is wrong in the world when 35 year old utility players like Derosa and Marco Scuturo can command multi-year deals at 6m per.

[pharmer dan]

Currently No. 6 on the most popular searches on Yahoo! is Brian Schneider.

A slow news day, but maybe a sign of how the Phillies fan base continues to grow.

[NEPP]

Beltre will be looking for a 3-4 year deal. I doubt he accepts regardless of that 1 year. Figgins will officially cost us a 1st round pick now as well as a big contract...I just dont see it happening.

Its not surprising pharmer dan, Brian Schneider is just that good.

[awh]

Didn't Beltre make $12 MM in 2009?

If so, he stands to get a raise if he accepts arbitration.

OTOH, he might get a 3-4 year deal else where, the question is at what price per year?

What is the date players either must accept or decline arbitration?

[awh]

Austin Kearns was not offered arb by the Nats.

A MiLeague contract with an invite to ST?

[That Dude]

JJ: u r out of your mind. I dont think the Nats would (or should) trade Zim even if the Phillies offered Utley straight up for him.....why r the Phils so "down" on Michael Taylor? All he does is HIT

[Jack]

awh: Kearns will prob get a 1-year deal from someone for the vet minumum or close. He's not gonna get the lavish multi-year deal that Clout predicted, but presumably he'd latch on somehwere for more than a ST Invite.

But if he doesn't, yeah, I'd be happy to have him.

[bay_area_phan]

Beltre made $12M because his free agent year followed the one great season of his career, & he was able to find a sucker to make him one of the most overpaid players in baseball. In a bad economy, and following the worst season of his career, there is literally 0% chance that he would get anything other than a significant pay cut after an arbitration hearing.

But we'll never know because he won't accept arbitration. He will go to the FA market, where he knows he can find some team to give him a multi-year deal.

[clout]

Jack: A 1-year deal with an option for a 2nd is "a lavish multi-year deal"?

Interesting.

[clout]

BAP: "In a bad economy, and following the worst season of his career, there is literally 0% chance that he would get anything other than a significant pay cut after an arbitration hearing."

When is the last time a player received "a significant pay cut" in arbitration? I can't remember that ever happening.

[clout]

mikes77: "Something is wrong in the world when 35 year old utility players like Derosa and Marco Scuturo can command multi-year deals at 6m per."

Well, if DeRosa and Scutaro were, in fact, utility players you'd have a good point.

DeRosa has been an everyday player for 4 years, Scutaro for 2.

[pblunts]

If Beltre was offered arbitration, say hello to our new third baseman Placido Polanco, who wasn't. He's versatile, has a solid bat, is a smart situational hitter who doesn't strike out, will be fairly cheap allowing us to put more money toward the bullpen and won't cost a draft pick. It makes too much sense not to happen.

Love the suggestion about Hairston somebody mentioned as well.

[awh]

yo, new thread!

(...where I will respond to Jack and clout.)

[Joel V.]

“The Phillies have started off with an economic upgrade in Juan Castro.”
Just how is a guy with a .230 career batting avg and a .270 career on base an “economic upgrade”???
To put it in perspective, Eric Bruntlett has a .231 career batting avg and a .303 career OBP.
How is that an “economic upgrade”??? I’m all ears.