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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

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Yes, JW, I did know Ramirez was on the 40-man.

Oh who, Oh who is the mystery reliever?

The spec is that it's Baez, but with Amamro's penchant for flying under the radar I would not be surprised to find out it's someone else.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if it were Jose Valverde, who gave them a BIG discount because he wants to play for a winner and they are going to lose a draft pick (a guy can dream, can't he?).

Maybe it's even Dotel who can actually K someone?

Kiko Calero is still available too.

Oh well.............

awh: Are you implying that signing a reliever like Baez with a K rate of 5.0/9 doesn't excite you?

Someone over at Metsblog attempts to replace the awesome <> comparison method. He writes:

Reyes – Rollins +1
Castillo- Utley -3
Beltran- Victorino +2
Bay – Ibanez +2
Wright – Polanco +3
F-Core – Werth -1
Molina – Ruiz +1
Murphy- Howard -3

Johan – Doc +1
Zambrano -Hamels +2
Sheets – Happ +2
Pelfrey – Blanton +2
Perez – Moyer +1

Total:+12

Jack-I definitley agree with your statement in the post. While I believe that the Phils are better, they can't take the Mets lightly (or the Braves & Marlins for that matter). This division is improving from top to bottom. That should make for some exciting baseball!

That system is not as awesome as <>=. Silly metsblog.

Gotta love the objectivity of Metsblog.

Have they gotten fitted for their 2010 WS rings yet?

Jack, Baez? Color me unexcited.

His K/BB is unimpressive at best, because he also has a BB/9 of 3.5 since 2005. Maybe he can repeat 2009, but the odds are that he doesn't.

Who would you rather have, Calero, Baez or Dotel? (Valverde is a silly pipedream)

Calero has been better than Baez th elast 5 years and can get a strikeout when needed.

Dotel can get you the K as well, though I'm not enamored with the BB rate.

I'm not saying I would rather have Joan Baez instead of Danys, but I would rather have Calero or Dotel.

Joel, I don't think anyone is taking any team lightly. I'm on record as saying I expect more of a dogfight in 2010 than last season.

I think all anyone is saying is that the Phillies are still the best team [on paper, at least :) ]

The pundits on the MLB Network were saying the same think last night when discussing the Bay signing. It makes the Mets better, but they are still not as good as the Phils.

Baez got better as the year went on last year...his velocity recovery as the year went was pretty impressive. If he gets back to his pre surgery peak he could be a steal.

Boy, the Met fan that came up with that moronic system has contracted that dreaded disease that affects Mets fans every offseason:

"Entitle-itis".

They usually don't get over it until their hopes get bashed in by the reality of the season.

Wow, I must have missed the announcement of Zambrano being traded to the Mets and the Mets signing Ben Sheets. I remember their fans thinking they were deep in the Halladay sweepstakes too. How'd that work out for them?

From last thread...

"Add in the fact that Bay... ia a slightly better fielder and it's no contest."

clout, you are really outdoing yourself today. Stupid statements with no back-up whatsoever.

'Bay is a better fielder than Ibanez', you say. Lets see..

2009 Jason Bay,
UZR/150: -11.2

2009 Raul Ibanez,
UZR/150: +10.7

Considering Bay is going to a more difficult place to field, I would'nt expect that to get any better.

Also, "... it's no contest"

Ibanez: 2009 WAR 4.2
Ja.Bay: 2009 WAR 3.5

Excuse me, I might have shortchanged Raul Ibanez by saying he was equal to Jason Bay.

Victor Zambrano is better than Cole Hamels? Nope! And the Zambrano from Chicago is going NOWHERE! Metsflog is so funny. Those 10 Jeans must be constricting Cerrone's blood flow.

Braves takin over the NL east again phils suck mets suck and marlins suck Roy halladay is not that much better then the lefty cliff lee he makes u 3 wins better that's it stupid trade for u anyway let's go braves!!!!!

That's some damn fine analysis. Good non-biased opinion.

Oh and welcome to Beerleaguer.

NEPP: Agreed. If Doc makes the Phils a 96 win team then I am going to be waiting for the analysis (and math work to accompany it) that shows how the Bravos are winning 97 this year after trading away Vazquez.

Atlbraves: Punctuation looks like this: , . ? !

Please learn to use it.

I'm very happy because I was one of the people saying that Philly should sign Lowe and Juan Rivera instead of Ibanez last year. I would have felt pretty stupid had we done that...I was fully confident that a Rivera/Jenkins platoon would have handled LF in 09.

Honestly, it probably wouldn't have been that bad as Rivera was quite good from the right side and Jenkins should have made the team over Stairs in hindsight.

All we need even inyour little league ballpark is a 1 run lead after the 6 and our backend of the bullpen will shut down utley hoeard and rollins Wagner is gnna kill ur lefthanded line up

Bobby Cox? is that you?

YOu gotta be kidding me on the park thing. I always love when that wife beater manager of yours whines about the park when the Braves lose...as if the dimensions are different when the Phillies are at bat. He's even done it when we win in Atlanta..."Well, they got a couple lucky HRs, blah blah blah".

I guess the Atlanta faithful actually fall for that crap.

3 HOF pitchers for a decade along with a top payroll and only 1 ring...great managing that.

Atlbraves: Go back and watch the game tapes of Wagner against our lefty lineup in 2007. Go ahead. We'll wait for you.

I smell a Troll.

We have just a good a lineup as you if not better C. McCAnn better then ruiz 1b. Howard is better the glaus 2b. Utleys better SS. Escobar is better the the overrated rollins 3b. Chipper is much better then polanco LF melky will be better then the 100 year old ibanez CF McLouth is better then the overrated victorino and RF Jayson werth is better then Diaz

SP
1. Halladay better then Hudson but Hudson is still very good
2. Jurtjens better then hamels
3. Happ better then lowe not by much though
4. Hanson better the blanton
5. Kawamaki better then moyer
our bullpen is much better then yours

We got better rotation and ten times better 'pen

Escobar might be a better hitter than Rollins (he was last year) but he's not a good defender by any means and Rollins is the best defensive SS in baseball.

WAR comparison last 3 seasons (since Escobar's first full season in 2007)

Yunel: 9.6
Rollins: 14.4

McLouth is the worst defensive CF in baseball while Vic is a legit 2 time gold glover.

OPS+
Mclouth - 109
Victorino - 109

So offensively its a wash and Vic is a repeat GG winner.

Melky is a replacement level OF, nothing special.

And the gap between Howard/Utley and their Braves counterparts is ridiculous.

Trolls are fun, eh?

Hudson was good before the TJ surgery...we'll see how he does in a full season back.

I guess 42 innings is enough for you to be fully confident in him being back.

Even if you look at his last 3 seasons pre-injury, he's not the same guy that was a dominating Ace in Oakland:

3.86 ERA, 113 ERA+, 1.288 WHIP. His 130ish ERA+ seasons are good but the bottom level for a typical #1 is at least 140 and above. He's more of a 2 now.

You traded away your best pitcher.

Lowe is an expensive mistake. Jurrgens is legitimately good and Hansen has a chance to be special but he's still very young/raw.

J.C. Ramirez: I think it was MG who said his reporter(?) friend in Seattle thinks Ramirez COULD be a bullpen part in the later part of the 2010 season, maybe that's what the Phils are also thinking.

That would be stupid in that it would completely stunt his development. He (like most prospects) needs solid innings in the minors to work on his stuff. If his upside really is that of a 2/3 starter, he needs time to work on it.

mikes77: Well if his one-year UZR says so, it must be true, right? And when did WAR become the end-all-discussion stat?

Ibanez had a career year in 2009. And he still wasn't better than Bay last year. In any event, the career stats draw a better picture than a single season.

Rollins is not the best defensive SS in baseball jeter and even The SS that im sure you dislike as much as I do Reyes are both better

No way is Atlbraves a Braves fan. He smells like a NY troll.

Jeter?!?


LOL

Definitely a troll.

@clout why is that because I said Reyes is a good defensive SS? but he is an overrated all around player

Atlbraves: Jeter is an adequate shortsop who wins gold gloves because he can hit. Reyes has great range, when he is healthy enough to play, but is erratic.

Rollins is the best defender of the three.

Atlbraves: It was the Jeter comment that tripped you up. Eeven the stupidest Braves fan knows that Jeter isn't remotely close to being one of the best defensive shortstops.

Of course, that being said, Jeter is a 1st ballot HoF and will likely end up as one of the top players in history. If he stays even reasonably productive over the next few years (i.e. averages 188 hits for 4 more years), he could end up with over 3500 hits. That would put him on a very short list of all-time greats. Mind you he's averaged 203 hits over his last 4. He'll also be approaching 2000 runs scored and 600 doubles.

Defensively, he's been above average several times but never really "elite" like a Vizquel, Ozzie, JRoll or even Arod was.

Career UZR/150 (well from 2002 on as that's all Fangraphs has...it does cover all the "GG" years for Jeter though)

Rollins: 5.1
Reyes: 1.8
Jeter: -4.6

Ironically, Reyes doesnt really have very good range. He's fast so I'm guessing its a positioning/reflexes issue for him.

The NL East will be a dog fight. All the teams in the division got better in the off season (except the Fish who seem to be standing pat for the most part with a decent team). Early prediction but I say it's PHILLY-ATLANTA-FLORIDA-NEW YORK-WASHINGTON and all end up fairly close. It'll be a tight and fun race.

I wonder how many plusses Keith Hernandez would have earned in his heyday.

You mean award winning actor Keith Hernandez?

Did he play baseball too?

Just for Men Champion

"It wasn't Hernandez...it was McDowell from behind the bushes on the gravelly drive!"

Don't the Mets win the World Series every December/January? Don't count them out just yet. At least wait until February/March.

Cole: I finally see a little love on BL for me when MPN wrote "Victor Zambrano is better than Cole Hamels? Nope!"

Heidi: You're much better than Zambrano. He's such a brutish man. (Heidi starts sweating) Cole, you're such a pussycat. Oh, by the way, my toenails need polishing. Go get the Midnight Pink Passion polish and start painting. Hurry up. I have to go shopping with Momma later today. My nails need to be dried by then.

Billingsly, you made me LOL.

True, true...the NY Mets: "December/January World Series Champs".

Hey, if Omar fields a team that is completely Dominican, maybe they can win the WBC next time around! ;-)

This is one of my favorite posts of the year:

Atlbraves: Punctuation looks like this: , . ? !

Please learn to use it.

Stan McNeal has his NL East outlook up on sportingnews.com.

Here's the link:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-12-30/nl-east-evaluation-phillies-remain-divisions-best

****Hey, if Omar fields a team that is completely Dominican, maybe they can win the WBC next time around! ;-)****

Apparently one of the caveats of the Bay deal has him obtaining Dominican citizenship and legally changing his name to Jasón Bahía

Atlbraves,Come up from the basement. Mommy, made you scramby eggs for breakfast.

Uh Oh, Mets' trolls, Jeff Pearlman at si.com says Jason Bay is going to be big in NY.....a big bust.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jeff_pearlman/12/30/jason.bay/index.html

Bay could play his arse off for the next 4 years and still be a bust if they don't win a WS or even come close. He's in basically a no win situation now. He's also going into it with a fanbase that will always say "he's not Matt Holliday!"

No wonder he didn't want to sign there.

That Jeff Pearlman article is terrific... in terms of being illogical hogwash.

Oh and NEPP, I'd bet money you guys would do the same exact thing to Halladay if that happened.

Altbraves, your actually selling yourself short on Happ/Lowe comparison. Lowe should outperform Happ next year. We'll see though I guess.

Nothing like a Jason Bay signing to bring the Mets trolls out from under the bridge!

Halladay basically forced a trade to Philly because he was dying to come here.

Bay tried everywhere else in teh world other than the Mexican Leagues before giving up and signing with the Mets.

I think that difference is noted in the fanbase's reactions to each.

Roy will have a ton of rope to play with in Philly...unlike Bay.

For my money, nothing beats watching Ollie Perez pitch a gem at Citifield.. oh wait...Ollie has never pitched a Met gem

The Sporting News article linked above brings up a good point about the Braves.

Their bullpen will likely be worse this year as they replaced Soriano and Gonzalez with Saito and Wagner.

Their rotation will likely be worse this year as they traded away their best starter from last year.

Their offense has not been significantly upgraded (Troy Glaus and Melky Cabrera to replace Adam LaRoche and a platoon).

Hard to see how the Braves have improved themselves.

Remember when Omar "swooped in" and outbid himself to lock up Perez for 3 more years at the bargain basement price of $12 million per?

Were there any other teams that were even willing to give him a MLB contract last off-season? That deal makes the Moyer deal look brilliant.

At least Moyer gave us 160 innings of sub 5 ERA.

HNY Everyone!

anyone have a favorite Zambrano to the Mets trade scenario from the fansites? Mine is

Carlos Zambrano
for
John Maine
Luis Castillo
Ruben Tejada
Reese Havens

I always "love" reading the comments on MLBTradeRumors where a devout Mets fan pulls 5-6 completely one-sided trades out of their arse and then lists their entire "revamped" lineup.

"Um...Luis Castillo, Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez and John Maine to STL for Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter. Then we flip Mike Pelfrey to the Giants for Matt Cain, sign Aroldis Chapman, sign Bengie Molina to a 1 year, $4 million deal, start Murphy at 2B and then our lineup is...

1B - Pujols
2B - Murphy
SS - Reyes
3B - Wright
LF - Bay
CF - Beltran
RF - Francouer

SP - Santana
SP - Carpenter
SP - Cain

Blah blah blah"

JBird - My favorite Mets Zambrano trade remains Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir.

If Metsblog commenters believe that's a fair trade, then the Phillies should one-up their offer and send the Cubs a sack of balls.

Blah blah, Drabek is going to be a future #1, LIKE, NO WAY CAN WE GIVE UP BROWN AND DRABEK IN THE SAME DEAL, AMARO IS AN IDIOT, Reyes is a cocky idiot, blah blah blah

C'mon Cuz, Dannys Baez stinks!

Seems like Toronto thought Drabek is going to be a #1 so its not just the Phillies who thought that. I suppose only Syter (or is that supposed to be sister and you can not spell correctly) think Drabek is not anything special. If thats the case Phils made a great deal in getting Halladay.

I think any trade that involves Castillo for Zambrano is hilarious. But it's really all Mets fans have to live for. Their farm system is barren and their club is heartless. It's a good time to be a Phils fan!

Well... considering we didn't give up Drabek and Brown in the same deal, I'm not sure what our newest troll is talking about.

Had we given up Drabek and Brown in the same deal, I would likley have called Amaro an idiot.

Marlon Byrd to the Cubs on a 3-year deal.

"Nothing like a Jason Bay signing to bring the Mets trolls out from under the bridge!

Posted by: CJ"


CJ, correction: I think you meant "out from under their rocks".

Some people would argue that a player like Marlon Byrd is not worth a 3 year deal. He LOVES playing in Arlington...it will be interesting to see if that transfers to Wrigley (also a launching pad on occasion).

CJ, I have to disagree about the Braves rotation.

Hudson could potentially replace Vazquez's production, Lowe could bounce back Jurrjens should be Jurrjens and Kawakami could give tham 30 starts. Most importantly, they'll have Hanson for a full season, who pitched 193 innings last season between AAA and the show.

If Lowe bounces back their rotation could be improved. IMHO, even without an upgrade offensively they could potentially win 2-6 more games in 2010.

Tha would put them in the 88-92 range and certainly in contention for the wild card. I don't know many teams that could match that rotation in a short series.

This is why I've been saying for months that the Bravos will be the biggest divisional threat in 2010.

Mets' fans who think their team is going to contend after being 23 games back last season are engaged in fantasy. It's simply too much ground to make up on a team that won 93 games last season and improved the lineup and rotation. Yes, Reyes and Beltran make a big difference, and so does Bay, but do they collective represent 24-26 WAR?

Byrd should give them more than Bradley did in 2009. Good for Marlon. I always thought the Phils gave up on him a little too soon.

BREAKING NEWS!!!


The Phillies signed Tagg Bozied today, MLBTR has learned. Bozied, 30, hit .288/.360/.447 in 240 plate appearances for the Pirates' Triple A club this year after starting the year in Taiwan. He mainly played first base and the outfield corners. Bozied hit .306/.382/.569 for the Marlins' Triple A club in '08.

Bozied was a big-time power prospect in the Padres system several years ago, but he ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee in July of '04 jumping on home plate to celebrate a game-winning grand slam.

One reason the Mets were 23 games back was b/c of injuries to key players, to pretend otherwise is fantasy.

Finally! Lehigh has a legit 1B.

[Tagg] Bozied was a big-time power prospect in the Padres system several years ago, but he ruptured the patella tendon in his left knee in July of '04 jumping on home plate to celebrate a game-winning grand slam.

Newest Phillie!

Dont forget about Wright's sudden loss of power. If/when he corrects that (likely 09 was a fluke), then they might get a couple more wins back that way too.

IF healthy, they are dangerous.

Thanks to NEPP and Beard for keeping it real.

The Mets were tied for first place in the NL East on May 18th.

Carlos Delgado played his last game of the season on May 10th. Jose Reyes played his last game of the season on May 20th.

Anyone who says the Mets will be battling the Nats for last place is kidding themselves. The Phillies will most likely take the division again, but the Mets will definitely be in the wild card hunt, assuming these fluke injuries don't return.

awh: Hanson's not as good as Bastardo. I read that on Beerleaguer.

Tagg Bozied? Who is he??? I hope it's a minor league deal. Beaz is the the mystery reliever per MLBTR. It's a good signing, but why the msytery?

Honestly though, which is the real David Wright?

The guy that put up WARs of 8.3 and 7.4 in 07 and 08 respectively or the guy that somehow dropped to a 3.4 in 09?

Personally, my bet is he'll be back in that 8 range for 2010...especially as it will be his Age 27 season. He's the only player on their team I respect and he's the best 3B in baseball when he's on his game (Longoria/Zimmerman could take that crown away very soon though).

MLBTR says Baez is the mystery man.

Mystery reliever is indeed Danys Baez (per MLBTR). What a "relief".

Heyman just tweeted that the phils will sign Baez.

BedBeard, I agree about the injuries. My point was this:

If WAR is a valid stat to use for a projection, and the Mets, because of injuries, only won 70 games last season, where are the wins going to come from?

It's not like they didn't have Santana for the whole season. He gave them 166 IP in '09 with a 3.13 ERA. So, how many more IP is he going to give them coming off of surgery?

Bay's WAR is 3.1
Beltran's WAR is 5.5
Reyes WAR is 5.2

But it's not like they didn't have Beltran for the whole season either. He had 357 PA last season with a .915 OPS. If they get a full season out of him how many more wins do another 3-350 PA translate into?

Reyes only had 166 PA last year so if he's healthy that helps them a lot.

You can't look at that 70 win team and ignore the fact that the DID get some contribution from those playes last season.

So again, having Bletran for another 1/2 season, Reyes for another 75-80% of one (assuming he gets approx. 750 PA), Santana for another 30-40 IP, and Bay.....how much does that really inprove them?

Heyman reporting that the Phillies will sign Baez.

clout: LOL!

awh: If Hudson can be healthy. If Hudson can be effective. If Lowe can bounce back despite being a year older.

Jurrjens should be good again. Kawakami should be league average again.

Hanson may improve. Or maybe he has a sophmore slump. I think he'll be pretty good. But any improvement he shows will likley be countered by the downgrade from Vasquez to Hudson.

It's hard to argue the rotation for the Braves will be better next year. It's hard to argue the bullpen for the Braves will be better next year. It's hard to argue the offense for the Braves will be better next year.

That's all I'm saying. I think the Braves have largely treaded water.

Man, Heyman broke that one for us...good work!

I wonder what his dynamite source was? MLBTradeRumors archive page?

Tagg Bozied? Is "Bozied" a verb? To Boze means to rupture the patella tendon in the knee. Tagg Bozied himself in 2004.

Tagg is destined to be an Iron Piggy in 2010. Ryan Howard does not need to be looking over his shoulder at Tagg.

As far as AAA filler goes, Bozied is pretty good AAA filler.

Baez AND Bozied!?!

How is this not worthy of a new thread? Killer Bs!!!

awh - if i'm not mistaken, the AR in WAR is above replacement. many of the mets fill ins were (without looking up the stats) below replacement, or negative WAR. that is a factor worth noting.

"The Mets were tied for first place in the NL East on May 18th."


MFiP, the 2005 Washington Nationals were tied for first place on July 24th.

The 2001 Phillies were tied for first place on September 1st.

The 2007 Mets were tied for first on September 29th.

The 2008 Mets were in 1st place by 1 game on September 14th. (Sorry to remind you of the last two.)

How did those seasons turn out for them?


AAMOF, all 5 NL East teams were tied for 1st on March 31, 2009.

If you want to make a point at least make one that makes some sense or has some relevancy.

You have heard of a 162 game season, no?

Conshy Matt, I'm not disagreeing.

I'm asking a question:

How much have they really improved?

Awh: I'm with MFiP: Phils will/should win the division, Mets will be competitive, that's all. If things break right for them (few injuries, sign a pitcher like Sheets who comes back to form) they could be really close. I'm just reading a bit too much about how the Mets are going to be lousy. I think that's naive.

awh - probably not enough to win the division. i'd say 10 wins just being reasonably healthy.

on a different topic, fangraphs noted that the phils unusually high strand rate last year (Haap's was very high). they speculated that the phils could pitch better than last year yet give up a lot more runs, as a high strand rate is not likely a repeatable skill. i wonder how much of this could be attributed to defense...??

Bed Beard: It's certainly possible... but first the Mets need to find some starting pitching help (and the pickins are slim) and then an awful lot has to break right for them.

They're now in a ballpark that neutralizes offense and they combine that with shaky starting pitching and some questionable defense. I'm not sure that's a recipe for success.

Why the hate about a Baez signing? I would have rather seen a Velarde signing myself but the Phils just don't/aren't willing to spend that kind of money on a bullpen arm.

Still wouldn't mind seeing the Phils sign another two arms for the pen thoug and I still think they will go after a veteran LOOGY to compete with Bastardo/Escalona/etc in spring training.

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