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Sunday, November 29, 2009


Well, under the clout theory of trade evaluation, it looks like that Abreu deal is still up for debate!

I'm going to say when it's all said and done that the Phils will have won the Abreu deal in a landslide!

Go Carlos and Jesus!

In other news, its the 7th inning and Bobby has yet to break a sweat.

My buddies and I used to have bets as to what inning Bobby's uniform would maybe get a grass stain or dirt stain on it at a game...many times it never happened. That tells you all you need to know about Bobby Abreu.

Damn shame you couldn't rip Aaron Rowand's heart out and shove it in Bobby's chest...1st ballot HOF if that happened.

I wonder if Valle can stick behind the plate...reports of his defense aren't encouraging.

No way the Phils trade for Halladay. Even though they should. But only if they lock up him or Lee.

Rube will try to build a package around Happ for Roy.

Besides the fact that the Phils minor league systems is a little bare right now with MLB-ready prospects/young players after the Lee trade, Halladay is scheduled to make nearly $16M next year. Phils would have to move the likes of Blanton and probably another notable salary along with emptying the rest of the top prospects.

Phils made their move for a frontline starter in 2010 when they traded for Lee. I would say the chances of the Phils making a serious run at Halladay this offseason are 100:1 or more. Ain't happening.

I myself would go for a free agent Hardin
to me hes the best pitcher out there

MG: Exactly right. Rube has basically said as much.

More and more I see the Jays hanging on to Halladay. They'll never get fair value in trade now because whomever gets him will need to spend outrageous money to sign him and that same team is not going to be willing to empty the talent cupboard, too. I truly hate to say this but I see him going into free agency and then to Boston or the Yankees. It ain't right, but that's what it is. The only other thing I could see is a trade-deadline Sabathia-to-Milwaukee type of deal, after which he still might end up in New York or Boston the next year. In any case, the speculation is getting old. Let's go sign a third baseman.

MG, I think you're dead on. I do think they'll reach for a guy like Sheets or Harden but, I expect that to be a June - July event. If Moyer is healthy, I think they go to spring training wiht hte starters they have plus Kendrick (and Park).

We're not getting Halladay.

Since the Lidge situation (really the entire pen) is unsettled, and Moyer seems like a longshot to become a productive starter again, anyone here in favor of bringing back Myers with an incentive laden deal?

The guy can either start or relieve, and now that his hip is healthy, I think it's likely he'll be a lot more effective than he was when his hip was locking up all the time. We were all wondering where his fastball went in 2008, and I think we now have our answer.

Any reason not to bring him back? We know he doesn't shrink under pressure. And we know exactly what personality he brings to the clubhouse, and that wasn't an impediment to winning the WS in 08, or to getting back in 09, when he worked his tail off to get back from surgery.

And to sign him, the team gives up nothing but money. No draft picks involved. He seems like a good bet to be more valuable than a guy like Duchscherer this year. No way of knowing how healthy Duchscherer is or if his depression is better. Love his arm, but better the devil you know?

aksmith: One big reason is because I don't think Myers will need to sign with anyone for an incentive-laden deal. Myers will get a multi-year contract in this weak starter market.

If Moyer is unable to return, expect a Phillies rotation of Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Kendrick with Drabek as a possible mid-season callup if he shows success in the minors and is needed. The Phils won't hesitate to trade for a starter again sometime during the season if needed.

I agree with fljerry. Rich Harden is available for nothing but money. We can get him and keep our kids too. Remember how miffed everyone was when the Cubs got Harden and we "settled" for Blanton. That's all glossed over b/c we beat the Rays and won it all. It's still true, though. Harden is better than Blanton. We all knew it then and we know it now.

The starting rotation CJ mentioned is a good one that can probably win the NL East. However it is not good enough to win the WFS. Harden is a top of the rotation pitcher who can win playoff games. He'd be the #2 on this staff. Guys like that aren't always available in July. And if they are, it will take Taylor or Brown to bring them here.

I hope the Phils are aggressive and get the stud now.

Lee, Harden, Hamels, Blanton, Happ


A-Train - Harden is just too undependable. And he'd likely burn a bullpen that may turn out to be pretty thin, depending on Lidge, Romero, and what happens in the near future.

CJ - I'm pretty sure that Myers expressed earlier that he'd take an incentive-laden deal to return. And I'd imagine that if he reached his incentives, the deal may end up being for more than one season. But he's still young, and if he's healthy, he's more versatile than anyone else on the staff. What I'm wondering is this: Why is there talk about every other pitcher on earth, and yet there are zero Myers rumors anywhere to be found. I wonder just how much demand he'll be in. My guess is he'll be signed somewhere late and rather cheaply for his talent.

But Amaro has spoken, and I guess that ship has sailed.

Breaking news:

Derek Jeter wins arbitrary, criteria-less SI Sportsman of the Year award. Sounds about right.

MG: "Phils made their move for a frontline starter in 2010 when they traded for Lee. I would say the chances of the Phils making a serious run at Halladay this offseason are 100:1 or more. Ain't happening."

So you are saying there is still a chance? I love long shots!

Halladay will still be a Blue Jay by the start of the season.

I was listening to an Astros game this year in late August where Harden struck out a bunch of Astros (9), but also walked a bunch (6), not going deep into the game (5 innings), giving up a bunch of runs (5) and getting tagged with the loss. I was not impressed.

"was listening to an Astros game this year in late August where Harden struck out a bunch of Astros (9), but also walked a bunch (6), not going deep into the game (5 innings), giving up a bunch of runs (5) and getting tagged with the loss. I was not impressed."

Sounds something like BrettMyersBlantonMoyerKendrick on many occasions.

Jason Larue will resign with the Cards so cross him off as a Ruiz backup (I know he was mentioned by several here as a good choice).

I have no interest in bringing back Myers whatsoever. He is an ass. I don't want guys like him on the team I root for. Don't really care what his production might be (which was never anything to write home about and is anybody's guess).

Anyone else think that Garrett Atkins will be non-tendered by the Rockies and the Phils will pick him up on the cheap as the solution to 3B?

Just a hunch.

[I apologize if it's been mentioned.]

May I also add -- gosh, this off-season seems to be moving at a snail's pace. It's amazing when you have a great team that comes up oh-so-short. February can't come soon enough!

Jason Larue is even worse than Paul Bako at the plate. Count me as happy that we didn't get him.

It's sort of funny that everyone gets all bent out of shape about signing the horrible Juan Castro; yet, when it comes to backup catcher, it's generally seen as ok to settle for someone who struggles to crack the Mendoza line. In fact, our backup catcher -- whoever it is -- will see a LOT more playing time than Juan Castro. Last year, our backup catcher started 62 games; the year before, he started 70.

The list of FA catchers is long. Is it too much to ask that we find someone who can at least provide a tiny bit of offense?

Atkins will be a huge disappointment if we get him. He's terrible offensively and defensively.

I don't think our backup catcher will get anywhere close to 60-72 games this year. Ruiz has pushed ahead and is not a platoon guy like he has been lately. I fully expect 110-120 starts out of him and 500+ PA (which would be a first for him) in 2010.

Still, I completely agree with BAP: Some offense would be nice out of a backup. Not another Bako.

NEPP, I agree on Atkins. His offense is falling off the cliff and his D is bad, some call him horrible with the leather.
A minor league flyer on him? -- sure, why not, but not a major league contract. It will be interesting to see if some AL team might see him as a platoon possibility, flitting amongst 3B, 1B and DH.

NEPP: I agree, and I would be disappointed if Atkins was the answer. That's just a strange, Phillies-trying-to-think-outside-of-the-box type feeling that I get the longer Atkins remains unsigned.

I am in love with NONE of the 3B options out there for different reasons -- be it monetary, offensive deficiencies, defensive deficiencies or otherwise. But something, unfortunately, has to be done. It should be interesting, to say the least.

MLBTR has their offseason outlook up for the Phillies now. Nothing too groundbreaking, but worth a look.

I keep looking at the FA list for catchers and I'm not convinced ANY of them can hit. (not incl type A and B FA) especially hit AND throw.. That would make them a STARTER.. I really don't think the need is for a .260 hitter who can't throw out anyone. What's the difference what you get in 150 AB's in a year? Just make sure he throws at least 30 pct of base stealers and hits maybe .220

NEPP: I agree with you that Ruiz has probably earned more starts this year. But we said the same thing after 2008. Then Ruiz went out & endured a two-month period in which his offense was so bad that Cholly went to a platoon with Bako.

I love Ruiz's defense, and still think he has an offensive upside that we haven't seen yet. But, on the other hand, he has been benched for his offensive futility at various points in each of the last 3 seasons. I think the Phillies should plan for the possibility that it will happen again in 2010.

Besides, even if he makes 120 starts, that still leaves the backup making more than 1/4 of the starts. So it would be nice to find someone like, say, Mike Redmond or Brian Schneider or Ramon Castro who can at least hit a little. In fact, I daresay that the backup catcher position is considerably more important than the utility infielder position.

Robby: Bako & Coste had 245 combined PAs with the Phillies last year. Lou Marson had another 20, in his April stint as backup catcher. That's far more PAs than any reserve on our team.

My off-season priorities:

1. 3B
2. Set-up man who can close in place of Lidge
3. Starting pitching depth: AAA starter or long reliever
4. Lefty reliever (Eyre?)
5. AAA starter or long reliever (whichever wasn't filled by no. 3)
6. Lefty pinch hitter
7. Last man in the bullpen (Condrey?)
8. Backup catcher
9. Utility infielder

BAP: All I was saying is that you can have a catcher who throws runners out or one that MAY hit 270.. On this free agent list, you can't have both.

Does Amaro sign a positional player this offseason under the age of 35? Every starter next year except Vic will be 30 or older.

2010 Phils slogan - Wheeze Kids II: Still Wheezing?

BAP - Did a post the other week but the backup middle utility INF has average only 100-125 ABs a year since Cholly became manager. Part of that is because of JRoll/Utley and the lack of a legit option there but Cholly just doesn't use his bench much either.

Backup catcher though has seen a fair amount of action because of Ruiz's perennial summer slump the past 3 years. Wouldn't be surprised if the Phils get 200-225 ABs from catchers besides Ruiz.

Robby: Yeah, I understand that. And I agree that defense is the most important attribute at catcher, particularly the backup spot. Perhaps my biggest gripe with Bako was not that he hit .220, but that his defense was terrible.

Still, I think we can find a decent defensive catcher who isn't offensively useless. I'm not asking for a .270 hitter; not many starters even hit that, let alone backups. But I'm asking for maybe a .240 average, a .320 OBP, and a little pop.

I wouldn't mind Miguel Olivo as a backup catcher under two conditions:(1) the money was right and (2) they used him more as upgrade with the bat as a PHer. I'm not sure that either of those conditions would be met... and it would also heavily depend on whether his OPS last season was a mirage.

Sorry this is off-topic but I got a big kick out of this article re: Grady Sizemore. The story, for those who don't know, is that some pictures intended for his girlfriend were stolen from his girlfriend's e-mail account and posted on a website.

But these excerpts are what I found hilarious...

Sizemore took the photos, which first appeared Sunday on a Web site, with a cell phone standing in front of a bathroom mirror. He is partially nude in a few of them.

With a rare combination of speed and Sizemore, acquired from Montreal in a 2002 trade, has developed into one of baseball’s best all-around players, but he was limited to just 106 games last season because of injuries.

Only a missing word, but the implication is pretty damn funny!

****But I'm asking for maybe a .240 average, a .320 OBP, and a little pop.****

What was the average line for a MLB catcher this year? MY guess is that its close to the above numbers.

Looks like Rueben either read the market really well or he set it for middle INF's.

Alex Cora 1yr 2mil
Omar Vis. 1yr 1.3mil
j. mcdonald 2yr 3mil
a. gonzalez 1yr 2.75mil

Apparently its a good year to be a backup middle infielder.

NEPP - The average lines for catchers for the past 4 years are:

2006: .269/.329/.416 .745
2007: .256/.318/.394 .713
2008: .257/.325/.390 .715
2009: .254/.321/.396 .717

These don't account for park effects.

I'm thinking it would be somewhat unreasonable to expect Rube to acquire a backup catcher who is good defensively and near league average offensively.

MPN: Olivo will be a starting catcher in MLB next season.

As for backup catching ABs, Ruiz had the 9th most plate appearances for an NL catcher in 2009, his first as the clear-cut starting catcher. I wouldn't necessarily say that Ruiz gives up ABs because he slumps. It's more like because he gets worn down and gets injured...usually an oblique strain. This past year, despite the 9th most plate appearances, was one of the top 5 NL catchers in terms of overall production at the plate as well as behind it.

In terms of outperforming or underperforming their contract, Ruiz brought a lot of value to the team:

1. Utley, +$23MM (Value $34MM - Contract $11.285M = 23MM)
2. Werth, +18.6MM
3. Victorino, +12.08MM
4. Ibanez, +11.93MM
5. Ruiz, +9.53MM
6. Howard, +6.60MM
7. Rollins, +2.30MM

The underperformers (no surprise)
1. Bruntlett, -$5.4 M
2. Dobbs, -$2.15
3. Stairs, -$1.63

clout: yes, probably so. But if he'd like to win and he didn't get the dollars that he wanted then maybe there would be a chance. Granted Ruben Amaro is not going to want to spend $1.5 million+ for a 2 day a week catcher.

This is a fairly robust list of 2010 FA catchers. Supply may outstrip starting demand. Particularly if Conlin is right and more teams will break north with cheaper talent this spring.

Rod Barajas TOR (B)
Josh Bard BOS
Michael Barrett TOR
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Castro CWS
Ramon Hernandez * CIN (B)
Jason Kendall MIL (B)
Jason LaRue STL
Chad Moeller BAL
Benji Molina SF (A)
Jose Molina NYY
Miguel Olivo KC (B)
Mike Redmond MIN
Ivan Rodriguez TEX (B)
Brian Schneider NYM
Yorvit Torrealba COL (B)
Gregg Zaun TB (B)

tna: so bruntlett owes us about 4.4mil? that sounds about right i guess

MPN: Olivo made $2.7M last season. I'd be suprised if he got that much again, but I could easily see him getting $2M.

pb - actually, bruntlett owes the team $5.4MM. the above numbers are net (production value - contract).

It's possible. A lot will depend on weather a team like the Giants or Mariners will want to go with a mix of Buster Posey or Jeff Clement as starters with a veteran back-up, or not. To be sure, I'd have to look at all of the team depth charts, but maybe you'll be proven correct. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this offseason shakes out. The pace of signings, however, is quite glacial at the moment.

Robinzon Diaz was just released by the Pirates. He hit .279/.307/.357 in 138 plate appearances. According to Fangraphs, he's a bad-ball hitter in the mold of Vlad, so if nothing else, he'd provide some entertaining ABs.

Worth a spin?

TNA: you missed Lidge at around minus a billion...

Regarding the values, it'll be interesting to see if Howard can maintain a positive value-add. His contract for 2010 is $19MM. His performance values for the past 4 seasons are:
2006: $25.9 MM
2007: $17.6 MM
2008: $15.0 MM
2009: $21.6 MM

In terms of 1B guys, the only player to maintain a high level of production value is Pujols. Everybody else seems to be inconsistent waffling between great years and ok years (for a premium 1B). Miggy Cabrera places a distant second to Pujols and Fielder's record is a little short. Gonzalez was awesome this past year, but was worth about $15MM/yr for the previous 3 years. Basically, the Phillies will be lucky if Howard outperforms his contract next year.

Chooch has more PAs in 2007 than in 2009.

Its gonna be a very slow off-season as teams wait for each other to set the market.

Jeff Clement is a Pirate...part of the Jack Wilson trade.

And he's expected to play 1B for them, not C.

GSS: Robinzon Diaz is really a nice-bat backup, rather than a catch-and-throw guy. He had some dreadful PB and E numbers as a catcher in the minors (and a weak CS%) and wound up more a utility guy, playing 1-2-3-RF-DH.

Rube has stated his preference for a defense-first (i.e. no-hit) backup at catcher (and middle INF).

hornet - didn't look up the pitchers...but since you brought it up: (not considered on this list are Pedro and Lee)
Top outperformers
1. Hamels: +$12.55MM (16.90 production - 4.35 salary = 12.55)
2. Happ: $7.60
3. Park: $4.5
4. Blanton: $4.23
5. Madson: $3.87

Bottom underperformers:
1. Lidge: -$15.30MM
2. Myers: -$14.28MM
3. Romero: -$5.65M
4. Moyer: -$4.00MM
5. Durbin: -$3.65 MM
6. Eyre: -$2.10 MM

Another thing I just noticed on Clement after checking him on BR: He'll be 26 next year...welcome to borderline prospect land, Jeff.

Assuming the Phils carry 12 pitchers againb, you're looking at 2 automatic outs on the bench next year (Castro & the backup catcher) with Dobbs as the top LH PH and Francisco as the top RH PH. The 5th guy should ideally be a big bopper type who can be used the way the Rockies used Giambi (and the Dodgers used Thome) last year.

Mets sign Coste! We are doomed!


what a traitor.

Meanwhile, somewhere in the Dakotas, Davthorn is at his local Sports Authority loading up on Mets gear.

Wouldn't be surprise if Pedro signs with the Mets as well.

I bet Coste leveraged all the Phillies secrets in exchange for a guaranteed spot on the 40-man roster.

MetsBlog, meet DavThom. DavThom, meet MetsBlog. Have fun.

Davthom's first post on MetsBlog in 3...2...

There is that...Coste could litterally pass on all our signs to them...

What a traitor.

I thought the handle read DavthoRN for the longest time as well NEPP, but then, under closer scrutiny, after someone linked him to Wendy's a year back, I saw his handle was DavthoM.

For notoriety, he's definitely a BL HOFer.

I always read it as DavthoRN...I'll be damned.

Definitely a BL HOFer.

Coste to the Mets. I guess davthom will be posting on metsblog.

Also, I would never call any MLB player a "traitor".

Those jobs are too hard to come by.

For a guy who toiled in the minors for 11 yrs and only got his shot because the guys the Phils had on the big club were stinkin' the joint up at the time, he's as entitled as anyone else to try to stay in "the show" for as long as possible.

It it the twilight of his career, after all.

Good luck to him.

I'm only joking, awh. Coste deserves a job with whoever is willing to sign him.

NEPP, don't be so sensitive.

NEPP: D'Oh! I forgot about that Pirates-Mariners trade. Mea maxima culpa.

Great, with Coste on the Mets that will be 18 games when David Thom comes here to cover us in his irritating Coste-jaculations.

MLBTR has their predictions up regarding which free agents will be offered Arb.

The list of players they do NOT expect to be offered arb is fairly long. The ones on which I would at least kick the tires are:

LaTroy Hawkins
Kevin Gregg
G Mota

there are probably a couple of others as well, but they didn't jump right out.

I'd take Tejada as our 3B in a heartbeat.

No way in hell Beltre IS NOT offered arbitration.

NEPP: You think the Mariners want to pay Beltre $12 million+ for this year? He's only a Type B free agent, so a lot will depend on whether they want to risk paying him a lot of money in return for the payoff of the the 3rd round pick they'll recoup for him if he walks.

I think the Mariners can safely assume that he'll decline arbitration as Boras is his agent and he'll get multi-year offers from teams like us.

NEPP, the reason he might ACCEPT arb for a one year deal is he'll almost certainly get a raise and could rebuild his value for next offseason.

It's a risk to the M's if they offer it.

Remember, the Bravos expected Maddux to decline. they were then forced to trade Millwood.

BTW, what is J Estrada up to these days?

NEPP: Unless Boras tells him: Hey, you're only 31... you were hurt last year... and a big 2010 will get you a better multi-year contract next offseason.

Maybe...big risk for Boras/Beltre to take.

Maddux was a completely different case.

I'd like Tejada. He's 35 but he is still a good hitter and he'd be moving over to 3B so his defense shouldn't be too bad.

His line over the past 3 years:

.298 AVG .336 OBP .773 OPS

He does hit into a TON of DPs a result of a fairly high GB% and his spot in their lineup.

Rube and the Phils don't much care who is manning 3B, so long as he is cheap.

Yo, new thread

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