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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

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clout: Ok, my mistake. He is better, but 1.) not by that much and 2.) Feliz's defense makes up for it.

Also, year I looked quickly and didn't realize they didn't combine the games he played for both teams.

JW, that FoxSports piece seems right on. I think the Phillies will be satisfied with 2nd tier bullpen and bench help. The only big spending they COULD do is at 3rd and for someone NOT named Chone Figgins.

mvptommy: Actually he's better by a lot, as the stats posted by sophist on the last thread show.

As for whether that huge gap in offense is offset by Feliz's dazzling defense is a matter of opinion. Since you seem to think 3B is the most important defensive spot on the field, where 10 or 12 balls are hit every game, your conclusion is not surprisng.

But, like your error-filled post on how many game DeRosa has played, that doesn't make it true.

Rodney allowed a .790 OPS in the second half of the season and an OPS of 1.000 in the final month.

Bullpen guys are always high risk, but this has a huge flashing red light. Because of his closer status I suspect he'll get a nice paycheck and I hope the Phillies don't take the risk.

clout: Whoa, whoa..Where did I every say that regarding 3rd base being most important. If ANYTHING, I have been trying to understand why you would spend $10 million on a 3rd baseman (Figgins).

So much for clubhouse chemistry. I'm not sure we need a loose cannon coming in...

A couple of people have mentioned another Tigers FA: Brandon Lyon. He's a groundball pitcher, has some closer experience and will come a lot cheaper than Rodney. I'd roll the dice on him.

mvptommy: Then you'd agree that 3B is generally seen as an offensive position rather than a defensive spot?

clout: So are you hoping they sign DeRosa? I mean afterall, his age, defense and injury risk doesn't bother you, so you must think he is the best option right?

clout: Of course, I have always said that, hence my "tall 3rd baseman" joke around here. I prefer the power guy at the corner.

My only thing is that SINCE you have the defensive guy at 3rd (Feliz) and your team already scores the most runs in the league, I would rather them eithier keep Feliz or upgrade offensively while staying the same defensively. That is why I am endorsing Beltre. He offers the offensive upgrade most importantly moving from Safeco to CBP and his defensive is lateral to Pedro's.

Please not Fernando Rodney!

mvptommy: Nah, DeRosa wouldn't even make my top 3. But he would still be a BIG improvement over Feliz.

Fernando Rodney @ anywhere near a 6 million dollar figure is pure stupidity.
The Angels would probably give Fuentes to the Phillies for nothing just to get rid of the salary. I would try Putz for 2-3 million before wasting 6 million on Rodney.

clout: I agree that DeRosa isn't in my top 3 eithier. However, " a BIG improvement over Feliz" is a stretch. I think an improvement offesively is fair, but defense wise, I am still not convinced. What are your top 3 choices? By the way factor the money into account for your decision.

Mikes: I agree. At this point any big time bullpen free agent is just flying right by because Amaro won't dictate any more than 2 million to a bullpen arm.

Rodney's always been one of those guys that got by more on guts and strategy than actual talent. Unless its a minimum $ deal, I have no interest whatsoever in him.

Clout: A couple of people have mentioned another Tigers FA: Brandon Lyon. He's a groundball pitcher, has some closer experience and will come a lot cheaper than Rodney. I'd roll the dice on him.

Amen to all of that. I want absolutely NOTHING to do with Rodney. NOTHING. And Lyon seems like a nice gamble, if doable.

David Murphy with perhaps the dumbest comment I've ever heard: "Then we have Adrian Beltre, who could would bring more power to the seven-hole, or perhaps hit fifth and allow Jayson Werth to his seventh."

WE WOULD NEVER BAT WERTH 7TH!!!

This (Rodney) rumor is brought to you by Fox Sports- the same good folks that brought you the Tim and Joe WS .
About the same probability of being right as one of Mc Carver's many in-game insights.

Saying that DeRosa would be a better acquisition than Feliz doesn't imply that you hope the Phils sign DeRosa. I'd just rather see a 35-37 year-old DeRosa than a Feliz in the same age range. DeRosa's offense is much better, will not weaken as badly as Feliz', and Feliz defense is both overrated and in decline.

tommy - I'm beginning to get the sense you don't even bother to substantiate many of your claims before posting. Not that I dispute your conclusion but what, for instance, is your claim that DeRosa is worse defensively than Feliz based on (considering the lack of substance behind your claim that he's worse offensively and your subsequent post about games played)? What, then, is your claim that Feliz' defense does and will "make up for it" based on?

clout - sorry if you've posted this before. What is that top 3?

One of the main reasons that relievers are so unpredictable from year to year is because many of them have enormous command problems. Rodney falls into this category, with 71 walks in 115 IP over the last 2 seasons. I support the idea of going after a reliever with closing experience, but I'd prefer to gamble on one who throws strikes.

Can we have neither of the DeRosa or Feliz options. I'd only take DeRosa on a low cost 1 year deal...where we were also getting another infielder to platoon/help the bench.

Say, Derosa and Polanco?

Well, regardless of how he got there, MVP is correct in that DeRosa is worse defensively than Feliz.

DeRosa had significant innings at 3B this year and was very weak (-8.6 UZR/150 in 874 innings)

sophist: In terms of game-winning impact on the Phillies my top 3 would be Figgins, Beltre, Glaus, assuming good health for the latter two.

Defense(UZR/150)

DeRosa

2009 -8.7

Feliz

2009 5.0

Pretty big difference, no?

Chalk me up as someone not all that interested in Rodney.

Rodney's K/9 in 2009 was the lowest since his rookie season of 2002. His K/BB ratio was the lowest since his rookie season of 2002. His HR/9 was higher than all but two of his seasons (2005 and 2002).

The only saving grace is that his GB% was the highest of his career while is LD% and FB% were both the lowest of his career. I suppose that contributed to the 2nd lowest BABIP of his career.

Fangraphs suggests Rodney was "worth" $1.4M last season and $1.8M the year before that.

He makes a good point. DeRosa has the added benefit of being a minus defensively at multiple positions (2B, 3B, LF, RF, 1B)

There's "value" in that sort of "versatility"

When you consider defense, Derosa is still a better option than Feliz, but not by all that much.

According to Fangraphs (which accounts for defense), Derosa was worth 1.7 wins over replacement last year, while Feliz was worth 1.3. So Derosa is better, but by less than half a win. If you can get them for the same price, you go Derosa. But I wouldn't pay a lot more to get him.

Beltre was worth 2.4 wins, and is 4 years younger than both.

I suppose it's inevitable that everyone will use Pedro Feliz as a baseline to whom any potential third base acquisition would be compared. In reality, though, being better than Feliz should not be the threshold. Is Mark DeRosa better than Feliz? Yes. Would I be satisfied if Mark DeRosa is the Phillies' 2010 3rd baseman? Absolutely not. The Phillies need to get younger. They do not need another 35-year old third baseman with declining offensive numbers & declining skills on defense.

Also, no thanks on Rodney. He lost it over the course of last year, and he never really had all that much to begin with. Wild and doesn't get enough Ks. That's suicide for a late-inning reliever.

Are we trying to put together a team of guys only aged 30 and higher?

bap: I agree... but being better than Feliz is a good place to start!

But he still throws hard...95.8 mph fastball last year!!!


Seriously though, that's all he is at this point. A guy that throws hard but has no idea where its going.

Keep the crooked caps out of our clubhouse. Phils need to re-sign Chopper and hope JC can come back strong.

Does anyone expect Glaus to play a full season at this point?

All this Rodney talk is a bunch of nonsense, no way we sign him. The money alone will be a sticking point.

I just want to sign Beltre or resign Feliz on Nov. 20th and get this all over with.

JBird: No. And with no one at Triple A or Double A available who can come up and fill in, I don't think Glaus can be considered a realistic option.

Rodney averages 5 walks per game. ERA 4.28 He's 32 so he has NO upside.These stats nearly match--- Can you say Rodrigo Lopez?

NEPP: Murphy also misuses "consternate" and screws up a Ricky Bobby quote. Other than that . . . .

Garrett Atkins is still being shopped. If no takers ,he may be released acc to Rotoworld

Trade for Kouzmanoff, then sign DeRosa or Scutaro. As far as the 'ren, I rather have Valverde than Rodney. I read this morning that they are going to begin talks with Chan Ho. What do you think it would take to keep him?

Jon Heyman tweets:

"#mets, #phillies competing with #angels for versatile chone figgins."

Jon Heyman is worthless as a source.

I think if Figgins were 28 and not 31 the Phils would go "all in" on him, but if he wants a 4-5 yr deal that is a big, big risk.

DPatrone-- If Park made 2.5 mil last yr, I'd say 4.0 mill on a one yr.. maybe 6.5 on a 2 yr. purely speculative

This talk of budget limits for the Fightin's cracks me the F@#$ up. We basically sold out 2009 and played an extra 8 games of playoffs, where the beer prices went up in the W.S. The $ money was flowing down there again this year. They will also sellout in 2010. Spend now and save when we are trying to rebuild. Now is the time to WIN at all costs.

I'd be surprised if Park makes over $3 million. The economy is far worse now than it was when Park was signed. Teams don't have money.

From what people have gathered, the Phillies barely made money with their payroll this year. You can't count on playoff revenue and there is no way the Ownership will risk running at a loss by banking on a theoretical 2010 playoffs. Thus, we're likely looking at a payroll no bigger than $140 million. (in response to Toddfromfairmont)

Well, I have only discussed pitchers to date, but if we're discussing position players here's what I'd do:

1) Re-sign Bruntlett. Yeah, he's had a couple of down years, but, hey, he's due for a rebound.

2) Trade for Mike Lowell. Yeah, yeah, I know he's been hurt, but if the BSox really want to get rid of him they should be willing to pick up part of his salary.

3) Sign Ronny Belliard as a super untility and 3B guy. Platoon him with Dobbs, who should be healthy. Good offense, so who cares if he can't play SS, that's what the Gnome is for.

4) Trade Vic for a pitcher (Joba works for me and the Yanks need an upgrade in CF), move Werth to CF and hand the RF job to Michael Taylor. Who cares if he's unproven? He's worth the risk, and guaranteed to succeed.

Now to pitchers:

5) Trade Hamels, who has become a complete headcase, for Edwin Jackson, who posted good overall numbers in the AL last season. Besides, Jackson throws harder and has better stuff. Dubee can make a CY winner out of him - guaranteed!!! Cole will be too distracted with the new baby, and then there is that little weenie dog to walk, so he won't have time to get ready this offseason.

My prediction is that 2010 will bring the all-time greatest quote from a frustrated Hamels: "Boy, I can't wait for my career to be over!"

6) Bring back Myers on a 1 year deal. As fars as risks are concerned, he's fairly low when healthy, and a pretty reliable BP arm.

7) Bring back Billy Wagner. we don't know if Romero and Eyre will be healthy, so we need the LH insurance.

(TITSSIYBAOIYAAF)

awh, I almost thought you were serious for a second.

Well done.

Garrett Atkins would be good. He's 6'3", so by definition he would surely be an upgrade.

Atkins is terrible defensively...And his offense is overrated.

I wouldn't mind him as a backup 3B/1B but we already have Dobbs in that role.

Glaus would be an interesting guy, especially with the Phillies great medical staff. I think BP mentioned a few months ago that they wondered if the difference between the Mets and Phils was their med staff.

I think part of the Mets issue was that once you get a fair number of injuries, your training staff becomes overwhelmed and preventive stuff doesnt get done for guys (stretching, etc) and then those guys go down and it simply snowballs.

And their medical staff is just criminal on misdiagnosis.

(TITSSIYBAOIYAAF)??

I know I'm not on top of my game today, but what does that mean?

I advocated Lyon a few threads back. I recently red that he is adament about signing a multi-year deal. Do you think that puts us out of the running? I doubt we start handing out multi-year deals to relievers.

Also, the whole 3b height joke has run its course.

Being that we've already given multi-year deals to Madson, Lidge, and Romero, I dont see us tossing more money into relief pitching. Too much risk for not enough guaranteed return.

On the plus side for Rodney, he looked like a workhorse in his losing effort in the late innings of the Tigers-Twins one game playoff. He's not worth $6 million.

****Also, the whole 3b height joke has run its course. ****

It was a good run though. Went on far longer than the "Victorino is actively hurting the team" meme from 2008.

i don't understand why the phillies operate under a budget yet piss away significant money on guys like adam eaton and geoff jenkins or in this case rodney.

I wouldn't count on Park at this point...he said yesterday that although he likes playing for the Phillies (he made some nice compliments about the clubhouse, city and fans), his first priority is being a starter for a championship club. He said he wouldn't mind playing for a team that he's never played with before, like the Yankees. Apparently one team other than the Phillies has already contacted his agent about starting.

Perhaps the Phillies would sign Figgns to play 3rd for the next 2 seasons, while keeping open the possibility of moving Utley to 1st and Figgins to 2nd when Howard becomes a Free Agent after 2011?

For all of the reliever talk, I would be surprised if we didn't sign a pitcher with back end experience, but it is not a move a move I would advocate. For one, the volatility of bullpen performance year over year means our pen is as likely to repeat 2008 as it is to repeat 2009, and probably falls smack in the middle. Lidge will be better and Romero will be healthy.

To me, the key is bringing Chan Ho Park back who was our best reliever this year and one of the guys who held up during the playoff run. I would also bring Scott Eyre back on a 1 year deal and prepare Bastardo for the pen. Matthieson is going to have a decent shot at making the club out of ST too. If you've been following, Mathieson has picked up in fall ball where he left off over the summer.

Save the $6 million we would waste on Rodney and use it towards Figgins.

I would love to see a "% correct rumor rate" for various sports reporters. My bet on Heyman is that it would be around 10% or less.

I think Park's opportunity to be a "starter for a championship club" has come and gone.

I agree about the height joke running its course. Fun while it lasted.

TNA: Interesting, I had not seen that quote from Park yet. He obviously is better suited to a bullpen role these days, but clearly this means a lot to him. If he goes, we will have lost one of our better relievers.

Park is closer to being a good major league closer than a passable fifth starter at this stage. Someone needs to tell him that.

At the time, Jenkins was hailed as a great signing as he would supposedly platoon with Werth (his splits were good and he would get a "boost" from playing in CBP). I still think he would have given us more this year than Stairs. At least Jenkins was a decent defensive OF.

If Park still wants to be a starter...One, he's a moron. Two, he won't be back in Philly. He's a great reliever, but not a starter anymore.


On rumor rate: Locally, Zolecki is usually the best at reporting something. If he says it, it tends to be true. Lauber is pretty good at getting stuff before most.

Rosenthal has a good record (at least as I've observed) on the national level.

AWH: I say resign Bruntlett, make him the starting third baseman, and bat him leadoff. Most will disagree, but there's a strong case to be made for it:

1. He hit .400, with a .933 OPS during the last month of the season (at least the last month in which he actually made a PA), so he's clearly trending upward.

2. He has had 5 bad years in a row and, unless you believe he's completely washed up at just 30, he is well overdue for a reversion to his 2004 numbers, when he posted an .847 OPS & was on pace to hit 38 homers over 500 ABs.

3. He had a .429 OBP as a third baseman last year.

4. When batting leadoff, his career splits are an incredible .450/.476/.700.

5. He has a career batting average of .298 in September & October, so he heats up when the games matter most.

6. He has a career OBP of .372 against the Mets, .324 against the Braves, and .321 against the Marlins -- all huge upgrades from Feliz's .293 career OBP.

7. He is versatile and can give Utley & Rollins a day off.

8. He will be a lot cheaper than Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, or even Mark DeRosa.

9. He is the major league career leader in unassisted triple plays.

10. He scored the winning run in the 2008 World Series.

Park would probably make a very good closer. His fastball/slider combo is great and he could ramp up his velocity in 1 inning outings. He can easily hit 95 with good movement as a reliever. Ashame he doesn't see it. His jump in K/9 going from starter to relief should be enough for him to see:

2009
SP - 5.7 K/9
RP - 9.4 K/9

sneed - You make some really good points especially about that the impact that an everyday starter like Figgins would have over an extra bullpen arm.

Still, I wouldn't mind the Phils resigning Park but there are other guys I would kick the tires on too especially if he wants over $3M next year just as bullpen guy. As for Eyre, it all depends on what the docs say.

Amaro will lean on them heavily to decide on whether or not resign Eyre and how much to offer. No sense in giving Eyre a guaranteed deal if he might the first month or two.

I still would like to see the Phils kick the tires though on a few relievers who might be had as more of relative bargains including a swing-man type FA the Phils have had a decent amount of success the past 2 years with (Durbin in 2007; Park in 2008) out of the pen.

If the Phils are going to spend big money on a reliever, then the one guy I want them to target would be Soriano. His stuff can be dominating and he would be a clear difference maker in the pen. He likely might be on the market for a bit because of he is a Type A FA and supposedly is looking for a potential closer job & the higher paycheck that goes with it.

Can't see how the Phils would sign Soriano at this point but he is the one guy I wouldn't mind seeing the Phils give a 1 yr big-dollar deal and bring back a guy like Feliz at 3B for cheap dollars.

Interested to see what happens with Dobbs. Can he rebound from last year's awful awful performance? I feel like that at bat vs James Sheilds in Game2 of the world series has scarred him for life.

I think the Phils opinion of Dobbs' future will sway their decision making. If they think he is still a productive lefty platoon hitter, would that allow them to pursue more of a utility type 3B that can move around like Derosa/Polly?

If phils think Dobbs will never see his 2008 season again, will that make them go for more of a everyday type player like Beltre?

Sent the Rodney rumor to my Tigers fan friend. He says:

"Whenever you can snag a journeyman middle reliever who only kept the closer role because Jim Leyland hates change, you have to do it."

If Park really still makes his decision on who will allow him to start instead of out of the pen, then his agent needs to karate chop his stupidass.

I think Dobbs biggest problem in 2009 was playing time. He never got to start and when he did, he was so rusty that he sucked.

2008 - 43 GS, 226 AB
2009 - 28 GS, 154 AB

Its hard to get anything going when you never play. Feliz's strong 1st half basically ruined any chance of Dobbs seeing regular playing time.

Park was terrific out of the pen this year. But if he actually believes that some team would pay him to be in their starting rotation next year, then I want no part of him on our team next year, as insanity generally has an adverse effect on pitching performance.

I was a little surprised Jenkins wasn't picked up by anyone last season.

I think the Mets should sign Park to a 3 year, $24 million deal to be one of their starters.

BAP: how is #9 not #1?

also you forgot he is proud owner of two peices of HoF memorobilia.

Never happens:

Wagner strikes me as the type of guy who will provide some real value to a team looking for a stopgap solution as a closer for a year.

Considering the Braves aren't going to resign Soriano or Gonzalez, it would be interesting and make sense for him to land in Atlanta as a 1-year stopgap solution to a decent base with plenty of upside potential.

I would love to see Wagner back here but the chances of that are as close to 0% as you can get.

"So you mean their is still a chance, right?!"

Maybe Jenkins didn't want to be picked up by anyone? Hell, he made like $8 million to stay home.

There was just a glut of aging LH OF bats and Jenkins couldn't beat out Stairs (in other teams eyes). I will always think we should have kept Jenkins over Stairs. Geoff was at least a decent OF and they could have used him more (especialy when Ibanez went down). Stairs in the OF was painful to watch.

Coincidentally, we're paying him $1.5 million to stay home this year. Maybe we could invite him to ST like we did Marcus Giles last year.

re: Park

Maybe they can have him compete with Moyer and Kendrick for the final spot in the rotation. And then if he falters after winning the job, put him back in the bullpen. He said he put too much pressure on himself as a starter and injuring his hamstring during ST didn't help. However, he said that he learned a lot about pitching in tight situations because he was thrown into a lot of tight high-leverage situations this year (as opposed to how Torre handled him when he was with the Dodgers). At this point, he's valuable in the pen, but I also don't see him performing any worse than Kendrick and Moyer in the starting rotation. But do we really want to go down this road again?

BAP- I think Jason and all BL faithful join with you in wanting THE RETURN OF THE GNOME.

Think of the great graphics he has inspired and the loss of traffic this site will suffer w/o him.

How bout we don't make a stupid promise again. That was terrible last year. ST stats mean NOTHING in the regular season. Didn't Bruntlett bat like .380 in Spring Training last year?

@MG:

I think Soriano's an excellent pitcher. However, in his career, he has thrown over 60 innings or more only thrice, two of which were contract years. Now, those years have all come in the last 4 years of his career. However, for the money he's going to command, I don't think betting on him to stay healthy is a worthy risk.

Anyone think that Eric Bruntlett should be the Comcast TRIPLE PLAY spokesman instead of Ben Stein and Shaq? I personally picture the Game Postponed banner JDub made...

Then again, it would probably scare little children and parents would then refrain from purchasing comcast's services...

Obviously, that should read "60 innings or more" not "over 60 innings or more."

Griffey Jr signed a 1 year deal to stay in Seattle for another year.

Its sad when once great players dont know when to hang it up. The guy batted .214 AVG with a .735 OPS and can't play the field. What is Seattle thinking?

At least Michael Jack knew when to hang it up. I'll always respect that about him. He could have hung around a couple more seasons and maybe pushed 600 HRs (particularly if they moved him back to 1B). He didn't. He knew it was time.

MG: I like our internal options in relief. What teams have found is that signing free agent relievers is too volatile, especially if you remove the upper echelon guys (ie: K-Rod), to be able to do successfully, yet they try it anyway and throw dollars at a common problem. For example, the Phillies had great success with two lefties that were waived by their previous teams (Romero/Eyre) and two castoff former RH starters (Park/Durbin). There are certain parallels between Madson and Scott Mathieson. We acquired Brad Lidge at a low point in his career and he was our team MVP the following season, followed by the worst season by a reliever in modern history.

The only time I would spend money on a reliever was if I were in dire need of a closer.

NEPP: If the consensus is that Dobbs can't be a pure PH anymore and only succeeds with enough ABs, than why even keep him around if you sign a fulltime 3B?

If they put $$ into a FA 3B, there is no way they'll be counting on giving Dobbs a couple starts a week.

Everyone seems to be focused on what the Mets are doing this offseason but frankly I much more interested in what the Braves are doing.

Yeah they have to kind of limited in what they can spend and Soriano/Gonzalez/LaRoche are likely gone but there are a couple of guys in this market who the Braves could sign as credible stopgaps solutions to a 1-year deal to fill their holes at closer and 1B.

Plus, they are likely going to resign Hudson and get a full year of Hanson. Additionally, they have a stud OF prospect in Newsome who likely will make a real impact for them next year and help the weak corner OF production they have gotten the past few years.

Braves really have been under the radar but if Wren makes a couple of savvy signings (and isn't forced to trade Vazquez to keep payroll at $90M or so), the Braves are the one team that will really be interesting to watch.

I have full confidence that Minaya will sign a big-name FA (Lackey, Holliday, Bay) and leave his team with several other holes because he doesn't have a Yankees-type payroll. In Minaya I trust (for the Mets to be an interesting but ultimately flawed team).

sneed - There aren't enough internal options though to fill all the spots if the Phils don't bring a few guys or bring in another 1-2 veterans.

You can fill 1-2 spots internally but if recent history has taught the Phils anything (2006 & 2007 were perfect examples) is that you can't rely upon filling 3-4 spots in the bullpen with castoffs & internal options. It uses shows up right away in April & May.

As for bullpen signings, there is no harm in sign veterans guys to 1-year deals with limited, fix price tag. The Phils finally started doing this the past 2 years and generally have had some good results.

Counting on Romero & Lidge to both very effective and be healthy next year is a bit of a long shot. Not with both guys have offseason surgery and posting such mixed/abysmal results this year.

****NEPP: If the consensus is that Dobbs can't be a pure PH anymore and only succeeds with enough ABs, than why even keep him around if you sign a fulltime 3B?****

How many pure PH are there in the game. Most PH get regular playing time. Dobbs didn't because Feliz had a strong first half and we had 3 AS OFs. Dobbs only got 11 starts at 3B last year. He probably should have gotten at least 25-30 as Feliz was terrible in the 2nd half. He had more starts in the OF (13 overall) as a result of Raul going down than he did at 3B. He was a good piece in 2007 (358 PA) and 2008 (240 PA) as a result of somewhat regular playing time. Both years he was basically a platoon guy that also was a good late innings PH. This year, he rotted on the bench. That's more of a UC issue than a Dobbs issue.

I want to take this time in the day to thank the BLer faithful for finally put the "3rd baseman height" joke to rest. It was a terrible choice of words on my part and will never make such a statement again.

Ok, now I am with MG. We should be worried with the Braves more than the Mets. For the sole reason that they are closer to us in the division than the Mets. All the braves need is some more offense and they should be right there. Although it will be fun to watch the big Lackey or Holiday news conference celebrating Minaya's great move, only to watch them falter next year due to their bullpen, catcher, 1st base, among other holes in their team.

The Mets could be dangerous if they stay healthy. They very well could spend $50 million this off-season. They had a payroll of $149 million in 2009 and they only have $92 million in commitments right now in 2010 not counting arbitration raises to Francouer, Maine, Feliciano and several other lesser names.

If they managed to get Lackey and Holliday (as well as some smaller pieces), they could be dangerous.

I sincerely hope Park is back as a reliever next year and that this starter talk is just blowing smoke. he was excellent in relief in 2009: 50 innings, 52 K, 16 BB, 0 HR. opponent OPS of .576. (also, incredibly small sample size, but he was the only Phils pitcher not to give up a run in the World Series.)

granted it's just 50 innings, could've been a fluke, but I really liked the way he pitched in relief this past year.

Park was clearly a different guy in relief both last year and in 2008. He is a great reliever. How he can't see the "honor" in that is beyond me. He could likely have another 3 years in him as a reliever.

Yeah guess you're right about the lack of pure PH guys. I just dont anticipate much time for Dobbs again in 2010 and if thats the reason for his poor showing in 2009, then he is probably going to be bruntlett-esque again next year, which makes him useless.

Jack - What's noteworthy about that (although you could argue he's in decline as well) is that DeRosa put up his worst offensive season since 2004 last year (.228/.291/.405) and still was able to have a higher WARP than Feliz (who's offensive output wasn't so different from his last 3 seasons).

Braves, Mets, Marlins. I'll be sure to allocate my worrying time appropriately. Let's see what the Mets do this offseason. They should be busy.

I keep looking at how well Figgins seems to fit in with the Phils.

Between the earlier years division losses to the Phils & and a Phillies- Yankees World Series I'm sure the mets front office is in win at all costs mode.

2010 will likely not be as disability prone as '09 was for them either.

Can't wait for spring- like JW said a few threads ago- it's going to be long off-season.

Bubba: Yea, but it could be worse. Back in the days not too long ago when our season ended in August and instead of a 3 1/2 month layoff it was 6 months.

Sophist: Yes, that is true, but I think the point you hide is the key one: when a 35 year-old has a down year, it's probably a bad bet to assume he's going to bounce back.

If we're buying low on someone and hoping they bounce back, I'd much rather do it on Beltre, the guy who's 4 years younger.

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