Saturday open thread: Phillies watch and wait

Not much happening besides a few workouts and intersquad games while the Halos and Yanks get set for Game 6, but we're overdue for refresher.

How the Phillies do it, or the beat writers for that matter. When you take into account the short offseason, the public relations appearances, spring training, a grueling 162-game schedule and these typically weather-delayed matchups in the Division and Championship series, it's no wonder few defending champs make it back. I'm spent, too, but this long break until the World Series is a welcome respite before that one last push. I'm looking forward to tonight's game. Lefties Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte are scheduled.

While the Phillies look to stay sharp, Charlie Manuel and crew will begin to weigh their roster options. It's a good bet Ben Francisco will take the field at some point this series with Raul Ibanez serving as designated hitter. It's a way better arrangement than last year's setup. It's just another feather in the cap of Ruben Amaro Jr., as the Cliff Lee deal continues to pay outrageous dividens. Oh and by the way, Francisco has a meaty .928 lifetime OPS (.353 AVG) against the Bombers. Meantime, Brett Myers is throwing again, but I'd have to think he'd play a minor role if he makes the club. Personally, I'd bring him aboard if they decided on 12 pitchers, but if they don't, I'd stick with the unknown Antonio Bastardo, even though the Yankees and Angels aren't deep with lefty bench bats. The Phillies can't be encouraged by what they've seen, situationally, from J.A. Happ.

That said, 12 pitchers is the way to go out of respect for the Yankees' and Angels' lineups and I'd take my chances - should the Yankees close it out tonight - against some of their inexperienced relievers. Obviously, Mariano Rivera is the exception, and represents the single biggest threat on either team. Just a night-and-day difference from Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton.

Final thought. What's up with the managing this postseason? We're lucky to have Charlie.

Comments

[BobbyD]

I would hit Francisco 9th so as not to mess with the rest of the order. I'd play him in LF in both road games regardless of matchups.

[Philistine]

Agree JW - Francisco in the field gives us incredible range at all 3 outfield positions.

Chollie has done a magnificent job this postseason. He has been very aggressive with his handling of the bullpen, but unlike other managers (cough cough Girardi cough), Unc Chollie's moves are the right ones.

I really hope to god the Yankees can pull it out, because capping of a back-to-back with a World Series victory over the Yankees would go down as the greatest sporting moment in Philadelphia history.

[Mick in Houston]

Good post. Nice point about the managing.

Does Swisher get benched? And if so, what does that mean for Yankees that under preform?

I wonder if Charlie would stick with someone who wasnt preforming. (Lidge)

[Unikruk]

"Final thought. What's up with the managing this postseason? We're lucky to have Charlie."

I would have laughed at this thought even a few months ago, but not now.

[box score reader]

Hot in Mexico. Yesterday, John Mayberry of Obregon went 5-for-6 with a homer and 5 runs scored. Even better, 19 year old Philly catching prospect Sebastian Valle, playing for his hometown Los Mochis is hitting a cool .600 with 5 homers and 12 rbi's in only 4 games.

[Old Phan]

There is no one way to manage (as much as some people think there is) but judging by results, Cholly does it right for this team.
The Phils could win 5 WFS in a row and some would still question his every move. I guess that's just the way it is.

[p. Red]

I'm not worried about Mariano.

[Pops]

What happens if tonight's game in the Bronx gets rained out? I'm guessing that would push a Game 6 to Sunday night and a potential Game 7 to Monday night. Sabathia would probably get the nod in the deciding game, if need be. The ALCS went the distance last year and it could have major implications in this year's World Series.

[PHIinBK]

Manuel is walking the same path as Joe Torre did 13 years ago. Be at the helm of a very talented squad and let the acoolades roll in. He's no better than he was his first day on the job just his players are.

[Unikruk]

Old Phan: Let's be careful about judging from results. The ends, no matter how spectacular, do not always justify the means.

[Old Phan]

Unikruk, so true!

[Old Phan]

"Manuel is walking the same path as Joe Torre did 13 years ago. Be at the helm of a very talented squad and let the acoolades roll in. He's no better than he was his first day on the job just his players are."

In case you are actually serious about this, are you implying that the manager is not important?

[Hunk Golden]

I'd consider batting Cliff Lee (.250) instead of Feliz (.161) except for the fact that, if Lee is pulled early, then his replacement will take his slot in batting order. That way, not only do we avoid the blackhole in the lineup that is Feliz, but we can bat Lee 9th and slot Francisco 7th, maintaining the same lineup we've been using all postseason.

But then again, assuming we pinch-hit for all the replacement pitchers, it might still be worth it.

[Old Phan]

While we're at it, let's bench Utley(.211) and Ibanez (.167) and Rollins with his anemic .227

[phlipper]

If the Phils need to score against Rivera, they aren't going to win the WS.

He is the biggest reason why I think the Phils would have a much better chance against LA than NY.

If NY does go through - the Phils need to build a lead before Rivera comes in, and they need to get good pitching from the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning pitchers. Nothing like stating the obvious, huh?

[Old Phan]

If anyone can beat Rivera, it's the Phils, but yes, it wouldn't hurt for them to pile on some runs early. The Yankees pitching staff doesnt seem that daunting, and we know they can beat CC.

[awh]

"we know they can beat CC."

Old Phan, "know" and "can" are teo different things.

Just because they were fortunate enough to catch him last season after multiple 3 day starts, doesn't mean he's going to be as fatigued this season.

Plus, he seems to have broken through mentally from his poor postseason track record.

I, for one, don't care who the Phils play. Both teams represent different and difficult challenges.
____________________________________________________________________

One last note on the Dodgers:

I hope they get the crap kicked out of them next season and don't make the playoffs.

Why, because upon reflection, any team that gets beaten in the NLCS two years in a row in 5 games by the same team and doesn't give the other team the respect it deserves ("they were the better team THIS WEEK") deserves to get slapped around next season.

What a bunch of jerks.

[Ben Rivera]

The Phils need Myers to pinch hit against CC.

[ozark]

I'm still not sold on Hamels in the rotation. Only if they win the first game do I remotely think he should start. His fastball has no movement and his change is only slightly better. Is he hurt? Who knows? Has he been ineffective? Duh!

[Murgatroid]

I don't know why Bastardo is still on the roster. I know we need lefties, but I don't trust Bastardo with the game on the line at all. I know Happ hasn't exactly inspired confidence so far, but I think Charlie needs to give him more of a chance to establish himself in games. He keeps sticking him into critical parts of games and removing him after one batter. And considering he started a game in the NLDS, he hasn't been given a lot of time to transition to a reliever's role. Charlie needs to commit to using Happ in the bullpen and allow Happ a chance to pitch to more than two batters. Even with Happ struggling, I trust Happ more than Bastardo against any hitter. Lefties are hitting over .300 against Bastardo this year, so it isn't like he's shut them down.

Also, Cairo is redundant with a DH. He isn't as flexible as Bruntlett, so I'd take the Gnome over Cairo. We can replace Cairo and Bastardo with Myers and Condrey/Walker. Walker looked a little shaky at the end of the season, so I'd take Condrey, but either would be okay. If Myers and Condrey are truly 100%, I trust the two of them a lot more than Bastardo, no matter what the situation.

[Iceman]

Yeah, let's take Hamels out of the rotation at this point in the season. Fantastic idea. We have tons of options that are better than him. Way to think outside the box.

Sometimes when I read these comments I think of Randy Quaid in Major League 2. Jeebus.

[awh]

The is a nice article or Charlie in foxsports:

here

One quote:

"Manuel, 65, is not the most famous or recognizable skipper in baseball. But he is absolutely among the best."

That's a long way from some of the crap thrown his way in this town when he first got hired.

[pblunts]

Diving a bit deeper into the best-case-scenario of the ALCS going to seven games: I was thinking this afternoon how great it would be if Pettite got roughed up tonight for say, 4 runs or so in 3 1/3 innings over 70+ pitches. Then the rains come and they have to postpone the game with the Angels holding a big lead.

One thing I never heard Selig address last year after the Game 5 fiasco was what would happen in this scenario. Normal rules call for the game to be started over. But if last year's Game 5 rule was made up in fairness to both teams, what would Selig do here? If I'm the team leading in this scenario, I'm very, very unhappy.

Let's face it, deciding any post season game in less than 9 innings, despite what the regular rules say, is crazy. So despite last year being done on the fly, it was and is the right thing to do.

Any thoughts on this sceanrio? My guess is that if there's more than a 50% chance of rain at the start and throughout the game, they don't even start it just because of this possible scenario.

Thoughts?

[ozark]

Ice: How many starts have Blanton and Happ had in the postseason? Those are 2 options. They've been much more consistent than Hamels all season and clearly seem better suited to start then relieve.
For all the Hamels lovers out there: I hope I don't have to say "told you so" but I will if warranted.

[Kutztown Fan]

Remeber Game 3 of the WS last year? It was a Saturday night and started way late because of rain.

The forecast is for the rain to stop later tonight, so I bet they have a late start. The gates of Yankee Stadium have already opened, so they'll do whatever they must to play this game tonight.

First pitch - 10PM?

[Steve Jeltz]

pblunts: If I recall correctly, they changed the rule and now all postseason games must go nine innings, even if they are suspended for rain. I'm fairly sure one of the TBS announcers discussed it during an earlier series.

[Old Phan]

Ozark, thanks for the warning. If I have good thoughts about Hamels, I will keep them to myself.

[pblunts]

I was at Game 3 last year. Had to take a 6:00 a.m. flight the next morning for a biz trip! Got about an hour of sleep but well worth it!

Jeltz... help me out, so what you read is that if they start it and suspend it before it becomes official, (before four and a half or five) they will pick it up where it left off no matter what? (Unlike regular season games that get totally washed out and start over if rain comes after the game starts but before it's official?).

Separate question, can someone who is very in tune with the AL explain the DH rule as it relates to pinch hitting? For example, I remember watching an interleague game thinking you could pinch hit for a DH and then put that pinch hitter in the field as a way to keep him in the game. But it didn't seem like you could do that.

[Steve Jeltz]

pblunts: I think the way you described it is correct, but I'm not 100% positive.

Regarding your DH question: if you pinch hit for a DH and then put the "second" DH into the game, then the pitcher would have to hit for himself.

There was a misconception on here earlier in the year (during interleague play) that some people believed you cannot pinch hit for the DH. That's not true.

[muchacho peligro]

Looks as though a couple of days off from actual games have some brimming with something to bitch about. Feels like home here, for sure.

The argument is simple. Hamels has one of the top 2-3 arms on the entire team (bullpen included) and has been way more effective against RH than LH through his most recent struggles. They have to win four games. They absolutely must start Cole and need him to win once in order to win the world series.

You remove Hamels from rotation and you have no chance to win world series. Arguing to the contrary is silly.

[BENTZ]

Game 6 rained out tonight and will be played tomorrow night. If there's a Game 7, it would be Monday.

[regalmeans]

Game 6 officially rained out and is being played tomorrow night.

Still feels weird that we're the ones who clinched first and are waiting to see who we play. This is probably better for us but I was looking forward to watching a game where I don't feel like I'm living or dying by each pitch.

[Steve Jeltz]

pblunts: The MLB official rules discuss the suspended game situation:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/start_end_4.jsp

If you got to rule 4.12 and then to the EXCEPTION below 4.12(a)(9), it discusses suspended postseason games. The language is kind of convoluted referring back to previous sections but I think you're interpretation is correct.

Rain out tonigt = good news for Phils.

[DJMTwo]

If the Yankees lose tomorrow with Pettitte and CC needs to pitch a game 7 on Monday that means he's not going to be available until game 3 of the WS (assuming of course the Yankees win a game 7.) If they decided to pitch him tomorrow, on what I believe would be full rest, he'd be ready to go in game 2 of the WS on 3 days rest. What do you do if you're the Yankees?

[NEPP]

Shouldn't it be properly referred to as "The Ben Francisco Deal"? I feel a little weird referring to our blockbuster deal for a 4th OF by naming it after that LOOGY we got them to toss in.

[NEPP]

BTW, the postponement is awesome. Its about time bad weather screws another team other than us.

[clout]

DJMTwo: Easy decision. You pitch Pettitte and have CC ready for Game 1. If they lose Game 6, that's baseball.

[NEPP]

Please let this series go 7...and have that Game 7 be a 24 Inning affair that burns both pitching staffs.

[clout]

ozark: Blanton will certainly get a start in the Series so you're really just talking about replacing Hamels with Happ. I can see going with the hot pitcher, but Happ hasn't exactly been a hot pitcher, so there's no rational reason to replace Hamels.

Keep in mind that Hamels' key numbers are nearly identical to last season's, both statw-se and stuff-wise. The biggest difference is his BABIP, which is affected by luck to a large extent.

While it is an accepted fact on this blog that Hamels pitched great last year and horrible this year, the reality is that he's pitched about the same, but gotten different results.

This happens to dozens of players every year.

[NEPP]

****47% - Swine Flu: Worth a Shot?
Fri Oct 23, 1:00 am ET

The swine flu virus has been making headlines since April, and large majorities of Americans continue to cite it as a news story they are following closely. Yet, if given the chance, only 47% of Americans would get a swine flu vaccine, while an equal number would not. While 60% of Democrats would get a swine flu vaccine if it were available, just 41% of both Republicans and independents would get vaccinated. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to say the media are overstating the danger involved in swine flu. The country as a whole is roughly split on whether the media are presenting the danger associated with virus appropriately. Among those who say they would not get the vaccine, the most cited reason is that the vaccine is too risky or has not been tested enough. Another quarter say they are healthy or just never get flu shots, while 16% do no believe in vaccinations. Despite any skepticism towards the media’s portrayal of swine flu or of the vaccination itself, fully 64% say they are very (17%) or somewhat (47%) confident in the government’s ability to deal with the swine flu.****

His control has been a bit more iffy this year. Not so much on walks but he seems to leave alot more over the middle of the plate. His last start supports this as he didn't walk anyone but he basically threw all his pitches down the middle.

He'll bounce back next year regardless.

[NEPP]

Sorry, I cut and pasted the wrong thing...dangers of working on two things at once.

I was responding to clout on Hamels issues this year.

[Old Phan]

NEPP, thank you for clarifying. I was trying to read between the lines, and could find no parallels between the swine flu and Hamels, although some posters probably could

[TNA]

NEPP - two cases of perception trumping truth?

[Phylan]

If any of you have BP accounts I encourage you to read this article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9673 (most of it is hidden to non-subscribers)

The long and short of it is, no matter what way you look at it, Hamels' problem this year has been luck. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and the quality-of-contact (fly ball vs. groundball vs. line drive) are all the same if not better than last year, and yet his BABIP has soared. The article goes into a lot more detail too, and is a great read.

Obviously he made a few mistakes in the NLCS but at the time he was yanked he had still only surrendered 3 earned runs. You're literally insane, as in have some kind of problem with your brain, if you want to remove him from the WS rotation.

[NEPP]

I think Hamels shows the limitations of statistical analysis and BABIP. He's missing over the plate more and he's gotten punished as a result.

He also simply hasn't been able to put guys away. The jump in his BAA in 2 strike counts support that.

[Phylan]

His swing-and-miss percentage is exactly the same as last year. Batting average against doesn't show anything, it's subject to the same BABIP distortions.

Hamels doesn't show the limitations of statistical analysis, he shows the limitations of people's perception, my own included. Our eyes lie to us.

[NEPP]

Pitchfx doesn't lie and it shows him missing continually over the middle.

[NEPP]

Interesting (and telling) stat on Hamels:

Swing rate at pitches outside the zone:

2008 - 30.8%
2009 - 26.8%
Career - 28.6%

Basically, guys are laying off his out of the zone stuff and forcing him to throw more strikes. A 4% drop is pretty significant. Perhaps he really was/is tipping his pitches and guys aren't chasing as much.

[Phylan]

Every pitcher leaves some over the middle. I would have to see a season-long chart to be convinced that it was a consistent trend. You'd think if he was missing up the middle his swing-and-miss ratio would be lower (it isn't), that the percentage of balls pulled would be higher (it isn't), or that the percentage of balls in the strike zone that are contacted by the hitter would be higher (it's 3% lower), or that the percentage of balls contacted by the hitter that go to the outfield would be higher (it isn't), etc. etc.

[Phylan]

Or that he would be giving up more line drives (he isn't)

[NEPP]

He is giving up more flyballs and more HRs as a result. Both of those areas ticked upward this year.

The numbers show that guys aren't chasing out of the zone. That's not luck.

[Phylan]

And yet, his overall swing percentage is exactly the same, they're swinging at more pitches IN the zone, and still missing at the SAME RATE.

[NEPP]

Scratch that last comment on HR/flyballs, I was looking at the wrong row on Fangraphs.

[Phylan]

He's not giving up more flyballs. His home run per outfield fly ball rate IS up, far above his career average, and that is a stat that, like BABIP, regresses from year to year, because it depends on luck and park factors.

[A-Train]

Hamels' pitch count in most games was higher too b/c batters fouled off a lot of pitches waiting for the mistake over the heart of the plate. This led to frustration from a 24 year old kid who doesn't always handle it well.

Much like Charlie said we need Lidge to win, we need Cole to pitch and pitch well to be WFC again. I think he can do it.

Here's something else to ponder...Would it be better to face CC twice on full rest or 3 times with 2 of them being with short rest?

[NEPP]

Well, despite that, it did force him to throw more pitches per hitter, per inning, etc. Teams changed their approach and made him far less effective as he became a 6 and out pitcher.

And his strand rate went down. Whether its luck or not, he simply couldn't finish guys off or finish innings off without getting dinged.

Either way, I think its simply an off year due to a WS hangover and he'll be fine next year.

[Cliff]

Anyone (who's not allergic) who refuses to get the swine flu shot is an idiot. Period. There's virtually no risk and a hellofalot of reward. "Boy, I don't feel like going outside today. I might get hit by lighting."

Anyway, thanks for getting me riled up with your accidental copy & paste, NEPP.

[NEPP]

No problem Cliff. I happen to agree with you. The so-called "dangers" of vaccinations are completely overblown and the rewards of vaccinating a populace cannot be understated. There is also the issue of herd immunity that makes it far more effective for an entire populace to be vaccinated instead of only half or 1/3. Diseases need vectors to spread and an effective vaccination program denies that to the virus.

Interesting Split on Cole:

BABIP for 3 Ball Counts:

2008 - .224
2009 - .480

What is up with that?

In addition

BABIP in 2 strike counts:

2008 - .255
2009 - .338

For whatever reason, Cole can't finish guys off and ends up giving up a hit after throwing more pitches than he should. How many times have we seen Cole in a 2 strike count and the hitter fouls off pitch after pitch till he finally hangs one?

[Phylan]

Strand rate is another fluctuator, and tends to hover in the low 70s. Watch what happens when Happ's returns to Earth next year.

Anyway I feel dumb having this argument with you since your opinion on Hamels is more rational than like 90% of the people I've talked to.

[NEPP]

Happ is in for a major regression. No one expects him to repeat his high 2's ERA. However, there is no reason for him to post an ERA in the 4-4.50 range next season. His other indicators (FIP) support that. Basically, he should be a good 4th pitcher. Though, there is also the possibility that he marginally improves going into his Age 27 season and does a bit better than that projection.

[NEPP]

Its all good, Phylan. I said before the season and even spring training started that I expected a major regression out of Hamels in 2009 if only due to his heavy use in 2008. Unlike some fans, I'm not really worried about him long-term. He's 25, a #1 pitcher for most teams, and even in his "off" year, he posted a low 4s ERA in a hitters park. Had he not had the BP blow 7 (I think) of his Saves, we'd all be happy with our 17-11 starter. Instead, we freak out about our 10-11 starter.

[mikes77phillies]

Murgatroid said, "Cairo is redundant with a DH. He isn't as flexible as Bruntlett, so I'd take the Gnome over Cairo.

If all 7 games of the series were played at Yankee stadium that would make sense. Since 3 of the games are played at CBP it does'nt make sense. That move brings Bruntlett's bat into place in any game played in Philadelphia. Cairo all day everyday over Bruntlett.

[NEPP]

Considering the huge hole we will have at 3B this off-season (I dont expect Rube to use Pedro's option at this point), What should be done. Chone Figgins is the sexy FA pick but he will likely cost an absolute ton. Figgins made $5.775 million this year on a 1 year deal but I would guess he's looking for at least a 3 year deal in the $7-10 million range on the low end. So, how about Adrian Beltre? He's coming off a bad year due to major injuries. However, he's much better away from Safeco and he's a legitimate gold-glover. The biggest downsize is his agent is Scott Boras (who will claim he's the 2nd coming of Michael Jack). I wonder what he would cost? He'd be a good fit probably.

[mikes77phillies]

"BTW, the postponement is awesome. Its about time bad weather screws another team other than us."

The Phillies may have had the biggest break of the playoffs by getting snowed out in game 3 of the NLDS. Forced the Rockies to face 4 straight LH pitchers including Cliff Lee 2 times in 4 games.

[NEPP]

I was thinking more of the 27 degrees game and also Game 5 last year. Both were brutal.

[Phylan]

NEPP: I agree re: Happ, he'll be a fine 4th dude.

You really don't expect Amaro to pick up Feliz's option? I would prefer he didn't, but I was getting the feeling that he would.

[pblunts]

Jeltz-
Thanks for the info.. as you said, a rainout is good all the way around for us. As someone else said, a Game 7 on Monday with both pitching staffs being depleted would be a beautiful thing.

BTW, I had a dream last night that Texiera shredded an ankle in the ALCS, making him unavailable for the WS. Feel free to insert a comment how sad it is that I dreamed that.

[Old Phan]

It's a bit too soon to worry about off season, but I would imagine Rube would pick up his Pedro's option. Depending on how much the Phils want to spend, is Figgins worth that much extra $ ?

[NEPP]

Feliz has regressed on defense and his offense (power numbers particularly) have been in decline for 4 straight years. The Phillies can do better for $5 million.

[muchacho peligro]

you're a sad dreamer, pblunts?

or by 'sad', do you mean how pathetic you are for having dreams involving postseason baseball?

if it's the latter, i've been having 'sad' dreams my whole life. i haven't always been a phils follower (not originally from here) but some of my best dreams of a kid were about postseason baseball.

[Phylan]

Mark DeRosa could be worth a look, and probably wouldn't be too expensive. He did have a down 2009 though.

[Phylan]

Maybe Juan Uribe (just throwing out some FA names)

[danger lad]

Or pry Alex Gordon from KC? I know there's another blog in the blogosphere who has supported this idea.

[mikes77phillies]

"(I dont expect Rube to use Pedro's option at this point), What should be done. Chone Figgins is the sexy FA pick but he will likely cost an absolute ton... I would guess he's looking for at least a 3 year deal in the $7-10 million range."

I've been saying Chone Figgins for months now. A lot of guys have been assuming that the Phillies will pick up Feliz's option. I don't think they will. 5 million is a lot for Feliz if the market is anything like it was last year. Feliz's glove is'nt what it was last year and he is the weakest offensive starter on the team now.

If the Phillies could get Figgins for 3 years, 21 million I think that would be smart. I'm not even sure Figgins could command that much, since Orlando Hudson (similar player at 2b) could'nt get that much last year.
Chone Figgins for 7mil or Pedro Feliz for 5mil? No brainer.

[pblunts]

NEPP-
Agreed about Feliz, I think the Phils have gotten their money's worth and then some out of Pedro.

Was actually thinking about the 3B spot for next year the other day. Are there any stud 3B prospects out there that we could deal Taylor (or insert another high end prospect) for? I'm sure the Phils would love to find a low cost option at 3B considering the money that's wrapped up right now in the rest of the team.

[bay_area_phan]

DeRosa's combination of advanced age and declining numbers are reason for serious concern.

Assuming a return to career norms (which is probably a reasonable assumption), Beltre is a somewhat better version of Pedro Feliz in his prime -- great defense, pretty good power, poor batting average and on-base skills. Overall, he's mediocre, but reliably so. The Phillies seem to find comfort in that (why else would they have signed Feliz?), so Beltre strikes me as the kind of guy they might target. And don't get me wrong; he would be a sizable upgrade.

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them take a flier on Troy Glaus. He probably has the most upside of all FA third basemen & would be a nice fit for their lineup because he rakes against lefties, has a high OBP, and hits for excellent power.

[Phylan]

I was going to mention Glaus as well, I just haven't read anything about how likely he is to recover from his injury.

[clout]

Phylan: Re: Hamels. This subject has been pretty much discussed to death. The stats show one thing. NEPP and many others believe the opposite. There is nothing new about that.

[clout]

NEPP: "However, there is no reason for him to post an ERA in the 4-4.50 range next season."

I'm not sure what you mean by this. What ERA do you expect Happ to post next season?

[mikes77phillies]

Would'nt mind Beltre. Can't stand Glaus. He's nothing without his steroids.

[clout]

DeRosa and Feliz are the same age, although I bet DeRosa would sign for less than $5M since he went to Penn and likes the area. He'd be a worse fielder, better hitter, but add flexibility since he can play 2B, 1B and the OF corners.

Uribe is younger than Feliz and a better fielder than Feliz at this point, but he's basically a Feliz clone on offense.

Beltre would be an upgrade, but he will be overpriced.

The best fit of all would be Figgins. He'd be a legitimate leadoff guy, they could move Jimmy down lower, where he belongs. But he will be overpriced and I doubt the Phils will overpay.

[NEPP]

***I'm not sure what you mean by this. What ERA do you expect Happ to post next season?****

I missed a "not" in there. What I meant was "there is no reason for Happ to NOT post an ERA in the 4-4.50 range next season".

[NEPP]

****Phylan: Re: Hamels. This subject has been pretty much discussed to death. The stats show one thing. NEPP and many others believe the opposite. There is nothing new about that.****

Way to simplify. I just think that its not all LUCK as I have stated before. Its mostly luck and the rest is probably due to overwork in 2008.

[Phylan]

Oh, I forgot, why are we hitting Francisco 8th in these hypothetical scenarios? Why not put him 7th and, while you're at it, make Ruiz 8th and Feliz 9th since Ruiz is clearly a superior hitter at this point.

[pblunts]

muchacho: "sad" from the standpoint that I'd rather be dreaming about Alyssa Milano, Megan Fox, etc., rather than some clown from the Yankees going down with an ankle injury.

[CJ]

Phylan: There's not an easier lineup to predict than one from Charlie Manuel:

Rollins, Vic, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Francisco (maybe Stairs vs. RHP), Feliz, Ruiz

He's not going to move Ruiz up and he's not going to put the DH after Feliz.

[Phylan]

I'm not saying he WILL I'm just saying he SHOULD.

[Spitz]

So if the LAA wins tomorrow, then CC or Lackey can't go in the WS until Game 3, and then they go again in Game 6, with no real possibility of having an impact in Game 7. Has anyone ever been a bigger Joe Saunders fan and a Andy Petit hater?

[Meyer]

I am quite sure Rube will pick up Feliz's option after he pokes in a couple game winners with that little league swing. I can see him popping a walkoff in the Series Finale.

[Iceman]

ozark- yeah, you do that. You should be more concerned than being able to say "I told you so" about predicting disaster than the result of the actual game. I'll be sure to keep all praise for Hamels to a minimum with the fear of being reprimanded by you.

[Klaus]

I don't like Figgins--not at the price he'll command. I do like Beltre. Defense is ++ and he has power. I think he'll come cheaper than De La Rosa, to be honest.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adrian-beltres-bat-away-from-safeco

[Klaus]

"I think he'll come cheaper than De La Rosa, to be honest."

Actually, that's moronic. Disregard.

[Scott]

Random Stuff: Here's a nice article about Charlie's early days. Those who appreciate him might like it, and those who don't will have a field day about him pitching a guy five straight days. :-p

Is anybody here NOT rooting for the Angels to force a Game 7 tonight?

The Magic Number is: 4

[muchacho peligro]

count me among the (few?) not rooting for the yankees tonight.

I want the yankees and I want them at their perceived best. No excuses, no 'well we couldn't pitch CC 3 times, etc.'

The phils have proven they are without a doubt the best team the NL has had to offer in quite a while. I would like to see them go against the perceived best at their best, so to speak.

[muchacho peligro]

And, for what it's worth, I'd like to see a road line-up like this:

JRoll
Vic
St. Utley
Ryno
Werth
Ibanez
Francisco
Chooch
Feliz

[thephaithful]

Yanks have a pretty small LF, so I think DH'ing Stairs vs. Burnett(3-11 2HR) would be more helpful then the better D from francisco.

[Old Phan]

The lineup I'd like to see is the one that works. In other words, the one UC is using now, with the RF position batting 9th.

[Mick O]

Any time a raft of premium stats that cost you money to see can be cut up and analyzed and with the final conclusion being simply

"Hamels' problem this year has been luck."

This by definition shows a limitation in the analysis. You can't seriously be saying you've statistically proved bad luck? On top of that you've discovered bad luck that lasts in arbitrary time block of one baseball season.

Unsubscribe.

[BobbyD]

With the "new" Phillies, is there any doubt they'll come back next year with a better 3B and bench?

[loqiel]

I need some recommendations on where to watch games with a date, preferably around Market St. Ideas? The Field House always seems packed to the gills.