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Saturday, October 31, 2009

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Follow the Cliff Lee formula of pitching. (Minus a few pitches. But still.)

Hoping away, JW.

May Cole channel the spirit of Steve Carlton this evening.

And if Bud Selig makes them pitch through torrential downpour again this WS he should be tarred and feathered.

With Cole this year, he's often made a simple game seem so complicated. Time to be like Cliff Lee, and "Grip it and Rip it."

I dont know if any of you guys support the men in orange and black as well, but there is a clear "yankees suck" chant going on during the flyers rout of the hurricans @ the center right now.

Pretty Sweet

Mike Scuilli: I'm watching the game also and I heard it. Heard it last night, too, during the Sixers game.

Both Lee (50%) and Sabathia (44%) threw first pitch strikes, which is significantly lower than the league average (58%). Pedro threw almost exactly 58% first pitch strikes and Burnett threw 85% first pitch strikes. All four had relatively successful outings.

The main point here is that so long as Hamels pitches with intent and can control his pitches, he'll have success. And to this point, the overwhelming majority of Ruiz's calls have been good. Hopefully Hamels won't shake him off and then get hammered like he did against LA.

Depends on where those "cheapies" land. This postseason too many of them have tended to land in the stands.

Heh. I would imagine that the only thing more pathetic than being a Yankees troll is being a Yankees troll who write posts only to have them deleted. Nice work, JW.

Schweitzberg will be missing tonights game due to a previous commitment to his local NAMBLA chapter.

email your thoughts to schweitzberg@philly.nambla.org

Line-ups posted. Standard Set:
@ToddZolecki:
Phillies Game 3 lineup: Rollins SS, Victorino CF, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Werth RF, Ibanez LF, Feliz 3B, Ruiz C, Hamels P.

First pitch strikes are great, but you can't do it all the time. Eventually, the hitters will adjust. 40%-60% is probably where you want to be. Not too predictable. AJ's 85% worked for one game, but if he tried to do that all year he'd get lit up later in the season as MLB hitters would feast on pitch location that predictable.

Hamels can use his curve tonight. He has to try, at least. Perhaps just a few times early. If it works, GREAT, keep it going. If not, the hitters may still have it in the back of their head...it may still help his other pitches fool hitters.

If he doesn't try the curve, then hitters can guess his pitches with a quarter. Heads = Fastball, Tails = Changeup. Half the time they'll be right.

Adding a Carlton slider should be tops on Cole's XMas list or maybe the brass set.

Welcome back to Philadelphia, Mr. Selig. Did you just feel a drop of rain?

Don't have exact numbers but I bet Cole has give up at least 6-7 HRs this year on his curveball and it is a much, much higher percentage than either his fastball or changeup. Hanging curveballs are always a pretty hittable pitch but it seems like if Hamels throws at about 10 curveballs at least 2-3 just sit in the middle of the zone, about thigh-high and get mashed.

WOOOOOOOO HHHOOOOOOO Beat the SPANKEES!

the key to tonight's game won't necessarily be Cole... but run support...

The Phillies offense was able to come through in Game 5... and Hamels limited damage by giving up solo shots.

It's not idea...

But its certainly a recipe victory.

What will cause Hamels issues, if he has no command at all... and walking guys before giving up a bomb.

That will be a death knell.

I can't wait to head down to the game... i'm a nervous wreck over here...

More nervous than the other 4 games I went to this year...

Toughen up?
Cole should knock down two or three guys early. Like I mentioned earlier this season, he needs to instill some fear in the opposing batters.

A third pitch is nice but overrated. Steve Carlton threw fastballs and sliders 90% of the time and his overhand curve maybe 10%. Key, as always, is location. Carlton could hit the outside corner at the knees with his slider 95 out of 100 pitches. The batter knew it was coming and where, but if he made contact it was an easy groundout. Of course, if you only looked for the slider you'd get tied up by his rising fastball, which was as good as Schilling's. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

When Hamels' command is on he doesn't need more than his fastball and his change. His change is one of the best in baseball. But it's no good unless he puts it in the right spot and it's also no good if he can't throw his fastball for quality strikes early in the count. Hamels needs to perfect his mechanics, and thus his command, more than he needs to add a slider.

Forecast calls for precip, but there is rain and there is rain. The rain headed our way is light, misty rain. The game will be played.

Hamels has good break on his curveball. He just doesn't trust it enough.

I don't know why he doesn't throw it more.

clout - agree. The third pitch talk is misguided. Hamels has thrown his curve in equal percentages, more or less, his whole career. Although a third weapon is always beneficial, his lack of success isn't due to his inability to throw the curve. Could be a solid out pitch tho.

My wife is watching the Red Bull Crushed Ice skating competition from Quebec City on NBC. One of the skaters is named Shane Nuttley. Say that five times real fast.

Here is the deal with Game 3:

- Since 1946, there have 28 World Series where the first 2 games of the series were split.

- Winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the World Series that year 20 times (71%).

- Phils have been in two World Series where they split the first 2 games ('83 and '93) and lost Game 3. They eventually went on to lose both World Series.

- Last time to win a World Series after losing Game 3 when the ties was tied was '03 Marlins. Before that you have to go all the way back the '79 'We are Family' Pirates.

These are the only 2 teams in the past 40 years to win the World Series after losing Game 3 in a tied series. There have been 16 World Series since '69 and the loser of Game 3 in a tied series has only won 2 (12%) of the time.

Conclusion:

- If the Phils lose tonight, the odds are very much against them to win the World Series. Hamels and the offense need to both show up tonight.


Someone said the lineups were posted. I can't find them. What are the Yankees rolling out with?

The one thing I am going to be most fascinated to watch tonight is to see what kind of offspeed stuff Petitte chooses to bring to the table tonight. He has the curveball, changeup, and a slider occasionally uses against RHB along with his fastball/cutter.

Not many of the Phils' hitters have faced Petitte (with the exception of Ibanez) and in the limited ABs have had very limited success against him including Werth (1-13), Utley (1-8), and Howard (1-9).

Given that Petitte generally has a reputation for being a pretty tough guy to hit the 1st time through the lineup, I hope the Phils can scratch out a run early and get to Petitte in the 5th or 6th.

If Petitte gets the strike zone that Burnett got the other night including pitches down and away, the Phils are going to be in trouble night.

Odds, Schmods. They need to win tonight because they have a potentially uneven pitching matchup tomorrow nite more than they need to win because of historical trends.

Odds/schmods? - 88% is a number that I would place a huge and sizable wager on if I could.

Because of the huge advantage the Yankees have when the DH is used (Matsui vs. human garbage), the key to a Phillies World Series victory is winning a minimum of 2 games at home with tonight's being the most important.

Jeter,Damon,Tex,A-Roid,Posada,Cano,Swisher,Cabrera,Pettite for the Yankees

Will Cool California Cole be crapping in his pants?

ozark: He might be; I thought I read today that Cole wasn't feeling particularly well. My hubby spent last night in the ER with stomach virus, so I hope that's not what the guys on the team have.

the word 'hubby' seems so emasculating...

Bringing up Lefty to defend two-pitch starters is A)Inaccurate since Lefty had a 3rd pitch and B)Unfair. Lefy had a great fastball and a devastating slider. An older friend of mine claims that Lefty could get to 100mph when he was young. While I don't know about that, I do not doubt it was well above average. Cole can't match up to that.

muchacho: You didn't witness what I did until 4:30 in the morning...

Cole sounded hoarse in an interview, too. Maybe he'll pitch better sick than he has been healthy. You know, having to use all your energy to complete the task in front of you, so not having any to spare for extraneous thoughts. Jamie pitched very well last year while ill. So, maybe. Or maybe he just has a small cold.

Thanks, MG, for making me more nervous than I already was for tonight's game. Like Scott Lauber today, who put out there a comment about how long it's been since Lidge last pitched (and whether he'd be rusty), as if we needed another reason to worry when he pitches.

i don't know why everyone seems so eager to get this game in - doesn't a rainout mean we could start lee in game 4?

Cole Hamels SUCKS. Time to trade him and his issues and try to get a righthander. They guys gameplan was stupid and he can only throw two pitches. Our lefties are trying to pull petite when they should have gone opposite field. and Bruntlett pinch-hitting was just idiotic.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA WHERE ALL MY COCKY MOTHERFU****S NOW?!!!!!!! LOOKS LIKE WERE GOIN BACK TO NEWWWWWWWW YOOOOOOORKKKK.... LONG LIVE KING ROD!!!!

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