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Friday, October 30, 2009

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Good move by Charlie!

Smart move by Charlie. I know, I know the numbers don't look sexy against the Yankees. But you have to look further into it than that. Blanton is a career 9-4 with a high 3 ERA at the Bank. Also, Happ is out of the question to start due to the fact that he hasn't started a game since September 29th. So it has been over a month since Happ has started.

This is the best and most logical move by Charlie. I am happy he is doing this. Also in being that this game is here in Philadelphia I am pretty confident with him going against CC on 3 days rest. CC has not pitched any games on 3 days rest this year. But career wise, he is 3-1 with a staggering 1.01 ERA. BUT that loss came on the hands of us. CC pitched on 3 days rest last year here as we all remember and went 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K's, 4 BB for a 12.27 ERA. Besides that start he has NEVER pitched in the playoffs on 3 days rest.

Good for Charlie for putting this decision to bed before Game 3- gives his team some reasurrance, I think, to not have thid decision up for debate.
Not that the sprts talk folks won't debate it anyway.
Or that the more literate BeerLeaguer crowd will be of one opinion either

0-3 with an 8.18 ERA. Well, that's promising! Sigh. Well, last year, our starters really stepped up. Granted, it was against a young, inexperienced postseason team, but that doesn't mean they can't step it up again this year. Cole and our offense can make me feel a whole lot better about this news and series with a whiz-bang job tomorrow.

@clout - "doubleh: If it makes you feel better, Yanks hit LHP better than RHP and Jeter, in particular, pounds LHP."

Any idea on what they do to lefties with reverse splits? I guess we're about to find out...

Well, they'd better win Game 3.

Didn't Sabathia JUST pitch a Game 4 on 3 days rest, Tommy (against Anaheim - in the post-season)? Seem to recall that he looked pretty damn good, too (8IP, 5H, 1ER, 2BB, 5K).

In Gut we trust.

Go Joe!

What were Blanton's numbers vs the Rays?

You are right RSB - heck, Hamels has to step up. The success of the series can't be placed on Blanton's back win or lose. He hasn't started much in the post-season. Hamels is the guy who has to get a win.

Career vs. Blanton:

Teixeira - 9 for 27, 3 hr
A-Rod - 4 for 7, 2 hr, 3 walks
Jeter - 4 for 12, 1 hr

Gotta step up, Hamels.

That takes Blanton out of the BP for tomorrow, and gives Hamels one less crutch.

Need Hollywood Hamels if we're gonna win this thing...

This is the right call. Lee going on short rest would be too big of a gamble.

We knew coming into this series that Lee would give us two great starts, and that everybody else would have to step it up. Its time for Hamels and Blanton to do just that.

@Kirk: agree. Hamels is the key here.

J.A. Happ's last quality start was on Aug. 27, 6 starts ago. The Yanks have an edge against LHP. Blanton pitched pretty well in his start against LA. Blanton's 7-4, 3.77 at home. Happ's 5-2, 4.18 at home.

I think the evidence tilts Blanton.

Lee has never pitched on 3 days rest. You don't want to change that now.

Also, although the Blanton-Sabathia match-up in game 4 seems potentially daunting, I don't necessarily see it like that. Don't let the media fool you - Sabathia is far from a sure thing on 3 days rest. Furthermore, as far as I can tell, Sabathia has never pitched against such a threatening, formidable offense on 3 days rest against the same team in both games.

Finally, I urge all you Phillies fans to not forget Sabathia's career post-season statistics prior to this season. He had a sub-.500 record, incredibly high ERA, etc. And his only start at the Bank? I do believe I'll never forget that night of 3 2/3 innings of shaky ball.

Blanton came up big in his World Series start last year, and I fully expect him to come out firing on Sunday night. Game 3 is NOT a must-win game now that we have Blanton going in 4. I refuse to listen to the skeptics who (if we lose tomorrow) will say game 4 is must-win game and therefore an awful decision to start Blanton. I like the move.

Big Joe's numbers against the Yanks are truly awful, but the Phils have not lost a post-season game that he has started (5-0).

Gotta believe that Happ simply isn't stretched out enough to start a game at this point, though we certainly could see him early in Game 4.

Find a way to win one of the next two...

Great site for radio calls and interviews of the Phillies.
http://www.philliesradio.net/

You all seem to forget that Joe Blanton has won AND hit a home run in every World Series game he's started. So, bully for us.

as I posted a few days ago, the overall ERA for Blanton is a little misleading. of the four games he's pitched against NY, three were pretty typical Blanton starts (6+ IP, 3-4 R). in the fourth he gave up 9 runs and couldn't make it out of the third. however, in that 9-run game, he was a rookie making his second start in 7 days against the Yankees. I think it's pretty reasonable to guess that they were just all over his pitches after seeing him so recently.

I don't expect Blanton to shut down the Yankees, but I think it's pretty reasonable to look for him to give us 6 decent innings.

Hey, at least we have Tina Fey rooting with us.

with both teams' aces going in different games, Game 3 is really a huge turning point to this series.

By the book each ace should get a win, so if the Phils want to take 2 outta 3 at home, then you've really got to hope Hamels tames this offense.

I know Petitte is a gamer, but c'mon Phils, he is hittable and this lineup is due for a breakout!

thephaithful: Tame an offense that has exploded for 4 runs in 2 games? Do you think it's possible?

So... I hadn't realized that Dobbs is out with the flu. Which means he's likely out with swine flu since the seasonal flu hasn't really started yet. Not what you like to hear around a team in the middle of a World Series!

I agree with Clout on this one.

I think once Happ got out of his routine, it has hurt him big-time. Blanton looks more comfortable pitching "out-of-rythem" and did well in a similar spot last year in the WS.

Remember last year, everyone was also predicting "doom-and-gloom" having to start Grandpa in Game 4 (I think it was Game 4, wasn't it?) and that turned out OK.

You have Lee and Hamels pitching 2 of the 3 games, both on full rest. You can't set it up any better then that on paper.

I forgot about your earlier post, ae, thanks for that info again.

CJ: Eyre said his flu was not swine flu--and there are seasonal strains going around right now--so let's not jump the gun here.

This is the right call. Lee on 3 days rest would be stupid & Happ has just forgotten how to throw strikes over the last 6 weeks. Blanton hasn't exactly been stellar lately, but he has a 4.66 ERA in 3 playoff games &, in his one start, went 6 innings & allowed 3 runs. It's not like he has been getting totally lit up.

So, idk if i am looking to far ahead here, but do you think Charlie is going to run happ out in game 6? Is he going to go back to pedro in game 6?

@denny, grandpa started game 3

doubleh: Been doing H1N1 stories for months now. There are few, if any, seasonal flu strains going around. If he's tested positive for Type A flu, it's likely H1N1, although the treatment is no different whether it's seasonal or swine. The seasonal flu strain generally emerges closer to December and peaks later that month.

It's possible he doesn't have swine flu. I'd be interested to hear if they specifically tested for it (test for H1N1 runs about $1000).

This decision does 3 things...
First, it puts Cole on notice that they need him to step up his game. We need him to pitch well so to give them the best chance to go up 2-1.
It lets KY Joe prepare for a start on Sunday night.
It also allow Lee to prepare for his start on Monday.
Also, consider this. If Cholly had gone with Lee on 3 days rest on Sunday, would he be able to use him again on 3 days rest for a second time in this series? By waiting to use Lee on Monday on normal rest, he can come back for a game 7 on short rest. But unlike CC, who is pitching back-to-back-to-back games on short rest, this would be his first time on short rest.

Let's hope Cole steps up and Blanton gets the ball with the Phils up 2-1 in the series.

They better win Game 3 because of this? Why not go back in time and try to win Game 2 again? This is a disaster!

Blanton is the only choice here, and until he is a flat-out disaster I don't know why people think he's going to get shelled. His numbers were bad against the Rays and he stifled them. He extinguished Boston earlier in the year. He can handle the Yankees.

Mike - I think it's possible Cholly goes with Cole in Game 6 especially if they are down 2-3. Wednesday night would be after 3 days rest. Depends on his performance tomorrow. Now if they are up 3-2, maybe you go with Pedro and if you have to play a Game 7, Cholly can start Cole and also use Lee for 3 innings. Any goes in a Game 7.

The danger of pitching Lee in Game 4:

What if he pitches poorly? What if his performance indicates he *can't* pitch well on 3 days rest? That means he'd not only pitch bad in Game 4, but not be a good candidate for Game 7 anyway.

Of course, on the flip side... if he pitched in Game 4 and pitched great, we could have had him available again in 7.

I think the risk outweighed the reward.

Okay, I won't let the 'media' tell me that a Sabathia vs. Blanton matchup overwhelmingly favors New York. I also won't let them tell me useless things like Hamels not pitching past 5 1/3 innings in the post-season. How much more irrelevant can you get? Just remember that homerun and those MVP trophies!

I don't like either of the next two matchups, and therefore the Phillies' ability to win 2 of 3 at home.

@RSB -- if the Phillies can't win 2 out of the next 3 at home... then season = over.

CJ: Could be stomach virus. Those have been going around. I know; I just had one.

MUST WIN 2 of 3. I don't see the boys winning 6 AND 7 but you never know with this team...

RSB: I can't believe people are still falling into the trap of judging each game on the basis of the starting pitcher matchup.

As I recall, that's why we were supposed to lose to the Brewers last year and the Dodgers last year and the Rays last year and the Dodgers this year.

The Phillies starting pitching is better than the Yankees starting pitching.

clout: You really think so? I mean, we have more depth, but do you really think Lee, Hamels, Martinez are better than Sabathia, Burnett and Petite? I mean, beyond that, NY has nothing, but I seriously doubt they show us anything beyond the 3-man.

I do think Lee is better than any of their SP.

These are the same horses they rode to the pennant. I'm glad Charlie's not going to hte whip on Lee just yet.

I like this move, too. Not worth the risk of Lee pitching on short rest.

Some folks speculating we only see Pettite once if it goes seven. Gaudin would take a turn at some point because they think Pettite couldn't do 3 days rest and Game 7 is CC's.

Game 5 = Lee for sure, best SP to either close a series, save a series, or pole position us back up I-95.

RSB: you also predicted doom in the first round before they even made the playoffs, so keep the predictions coming.

Being down 3-1 in this series is looming

"Being down 3-1 in this series is looming"

For the Phils or the Yankees?

As the series goes on the Yankees pitching gets weaker as they try to pitch Burnett and maybe Pettite on 3 days rest. Yankee pitching in games 5 and 6 are huge question marks. Settle down everyone...

Right, Iceman, I know this personally offends you for some reason. Never mind that I picked them to beat the Dodgers.

Cole: Heidi, I just read in the last BL thread that "EVERYTHING we discuss on Beerleaguer is pointless." Does that mean they were wrong about me losing my control?

Heidi: What's the point, Cole? Are you worried about the stuff you read in BL being pointless or about your lost control?

Cole: I enjoy reading BL. I used to think if clout wrote it, then it must be true, now I find out that it's all pointless.

Heidi: Cole, you are hopeless.

Cole: Heidi, if we have another son, I think that I want to name him Lake instead of clout.

Heidi: Lake is a stupid name!

Cole: How about Fred?

Heidi: I think you need to concentrate more about tomorrow's game! Oh, and your control might be on the floor in the back of the master bedroom closet.

Cole: Oh, thank you, Heidi!

Very funny, Lake Fred!

Lake Fred, I love the Cole/Beerleaguer stuff, but do you really think he reads anything other than TMZ.com and maybe US Weekly?

Remember guys, Sabathia may be taking Game 4 on three days rest and Burnett Game 5 on three, though we don't know what the rain will do. All is not lost.

Read this from Charlie about Cole pitching. I'm using only part of the quote, which ended with Charlie's vote of confidence in Cole. But funny choice of words to express confidence, here in the first part of the quote:

"Every time he goes out and pitches it's different in some ways. It's an adventure."

:)


It looks like rain may be a factor tomorrow with forecasts saying that rain is going to start in late afternoon with 70-80%chance of rain by 8:00-9:00 pm and lasting through the evening. Depending on the severity of the rain, if this causes a postponement, here maybe the potential pitching matchups. This is presuming that the games are moved back a day and the teams head straight back to NY after Game 5 if series isnt decided
without the off day on Tuesday.(Pitchers rest days in parentheses):

Sun Game 3 Hamels vs Pettite
Mon Game 4 Blanton or Lee(4) vs Sabathia(4)
Tue Game 5 Blanton or Lee(5) vs Burnett(4)
Wed Game 6 Martinez(5) vs Gaudin(?)
Thu Game 7 Happ vs Pettite?(3)

What are Burnett's numbers on 3 days rest? I would think that the last time he went on that schedule would have been with the Marlins, since the Blue Jays haven't been in a pennant race the past few years.

in an interview i think i read that Aj burnett said he likes to pitch on three days rest, and did so in the middle of this year, although i could have misudnerstood.

and i believe i read somewhere that he has a low 2 era or maybee lower. I have no articles to support that this late, but i do recall reading it

Charlie's quote isn't about Lee or Blanton; its about Cole and Pedro. Depending on the results of Game 3, Manuel's setting up the rotation for Hamels to start game 6.

Burnett has pitched on 3 days rest 4 times. Never this year though. Three times in 08. He has been effective under those circumstances.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=burnea.01&year=Career&t=p#3%20Days,GS

Yo, newer thread

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