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Monday, October 19, 2009

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Does anyone else think that Ryan Howard is now the leader of this team? Or at least Ryno and Jimmy? I used to wonder who took Burrell's place in the clubhouse but I really think it is Ryan.

Scott Lauber has a good blog entry today.

http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/

Woohoo!

Color me impressed that JW found a picture of Cliff Lee smiling.

From the last thread: I'm a little curious: Ryan Howard has obviously made some sort of adjustment in his hitting strategy. He's not getting so many deep fly balls, and he's not striking out nearly as much. Instead, he's driving the ball laterally, driving in runs with doubles, triples, and singles. He may not hit 40 home runs next year if he keeps this up, but his batting average will be a lot higher, and his RBI total might be higher, too.

Anybody have any idea what he did?


He's doing what he always does when he's locked in. He's staying back on the ball and letting it come to him. The HRs are almost always secondary with him when he's locked in. He's not up there trying to Matt Stairs it out of the park, he's just making solid contact and if it goes out, it goes out. A locked in Ryan Howard is a dangerous dangerous opponent. No one in the game has more power than him.

Not impressed by an offense that generates zero earned runs (regardless of what the box score from Game 2 indicates) in back-to-back games of a post-season series? Jeez, you're tough.

Let's face it, both L.A. teams are overmatched in the playoffs.

Here is a interesting article from today's LA Times. Basically the article is about Don Mattingly saying that the West Coast media isn't hard enough on the Dodgers players like the East coast media is on their teams. Also, saying that the players laugh at the emdia on the west coast because they miss so much that the players should be held accountable for doing wrong.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-simers19-2009oct19,0,6682232.column?page=2

We're clearly the better team but this series is far from over. I like our chances of going .500 in the remaining 4 games (especially with Hamels, Pedro, Lee lined up for Games 5,6, & 7)

Howard is clearly seeing the ball better and recognizing pitches he can and cannot hit. He's laying off balls and crushing anything over the plate. Tis a thing of beauty to behold.

I'm officially not concerned about Utley's throwing. As long as he squares up pitches and runs the bases like he has, he can bounce and air mail the occasional throw. I'll take it.

Take a look at Gillick's first half dozen personnel moves and then take a look at Amaro's. Night and day.

I just hope that the Phillies don't take LA as lightly as some fans. The Dodgers had the best record in the NL, the highest batting average, the largest run differential, and they have an excellent bullpen (last night's game notwithstanding, they have an army of low ERA flamethrowers).

I've never been impressed with Randy Wolf, but his ERA would indicate that he's had a pretty good year this year (including 2.78 away and an effective performance against the Phils at CBP).

The Phils are in the driver's seat - but assessing the series outcome on last night's game seems a bit risky. The two previous games were close, and the teams seemed evenly matched.

With Howard if u compare 09/08 playoffs you can see he isn't swinging at breaking balls as much. What is interesting is that last year LA fed a full diet of breaking pitches and this year he is seeing more fastballs. Not sure why, but he is being much mroe patient.

Flipper: Good post. Exactly right.

I agree, Phlipper. You don't make it to the postseason by rolling over when faced with any setback. If Kuroda had had better command last night, the pitching matchup would have been a lot more even, although with Cliff Lee pitching like the Cy Young award winner he is, he'll always be tough to beat.

Joe B. is good, but he has given up at least 1 HR in the majority of his games. If Randy Wolf is able to shut down the Phils' offense, we could end up losing by 1 run. You never know what will happen!

That said, the Phils' showed their impressive side last night. This was the offense we all love to watch. The top of the order will continue to be key, and so will Jayson Werth if the Dodgers decide not to let Howard beat them.

Go Phils!

That triple Howard hit was a slider, low and away. The same pitch they were using last year for K's.

Great win, but I'm not ready to write the Dodgers off yet.

Phlipper is 100% right. Remember, thre Dodgers only have to win 1 of the next 2 to get this back to their yard. And the POhillies offense is very up and down. Two wins does not a series victory make. Despite the lospsided score, last night only counts for 1 win

Bill Lyon at his best this morning in the Inky:

"Enter Jayson Werth. Here is a man capable of lunging, hopelessly overmatched futility on one swing and then a thermonuclear detonation the next. This time it's a 5-megaton blast, the ball climbing in a majestic arc and landing at the back of the greenery in center field. Chopped up into singles, it would be a week's worth of hits."

I highly doubt anybody in the Phillies clubhouse is taking the Dodgers lightly. That doesn't mean the Dodgers have so far proven to be the inferior team. Their victory came due to an unforced error and a walk. They've basically done nothing yet to make you believe they will win 3 more games.

Amen to not getting cocky and taking the Dodgers lightly. Not a prediction, but I would expect them to bounce back, and that tonight they will provide a tough game that could go either way.

Daulton noted last night that teams know they are going to get smacked around once in a while and tend to get over those games quickly.

I don't think they should take the Dodgers lightly, either, but at the same time, aside from Padilla, they've had nothing this series.

Good to see Jamie Moyer on the bench last night. Scott Lauber on his infection:
http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20091019/SPORTS01/910190342/1021

Agree that we can't take the Dodgers lightly- the high from last night's win lasts until 8:07 tonight.

I agree with noted predicter of the end times Darren Daulton in the fact that last night wasn't one of those stomach punch games. You can get over a blow out easier than losing a game you thought you had won. The boys need to keep applying the pressure and score early. If they can be up by 3 early that puts the Dodgers ind esperation mode.

It is time to step ontheir necks!

I know we concentrate of the performance of our team and rightfully so, but if the Dodgers don't start hitting, this series will not make it back to L.A.

Did you ever think that you see an NLCS where Padilla and Wolf would be the major obstacles to the Phillies taking a commanding lead?

"Chopped up into singles, it would be a week's worth of hits."

Thats beautiful.

I think it was Buck Martinez that made a point at the end of the game of how the Phillies are great at scouting other teams for these playoff series. And how they knew how to pitch all of the Rays hitters last WS and they give each of their pitchers an excellent game plan. I know every team does this but I think the Phils are really good at it. My point is the Dodgers offense isn't that bad but they are making them look it.

Agree with flipper. The Dodgers have looked anemic so far in this series but they are not done yet. Last night was a combo of things but to me a lot of it had to do with another bad decision by the opposiing manager. I don't understand why Kuroda didn't pitch in LA instead of waiting til game 3. Maybe Torre was hoping Kuroda could bounce his team into a series lead or deliver a knockout punch but that wasn't the case. Kuroda lives with his split finger fastball and in cold weather it's extremely hard to get the grip and feel for that pitch. And a split-finger fastball is all about the feel. Without that pitch the Phillies were sitting on his regular fastball and hitting it all over the park. Back in LA, with the warmer weather, Kuroda probably does better.

Tonight though is a throat stepping game. This type of game is something the Phillies have become good at. If Blanton can be big tonight and they get the win that means the Dodgers need to beat Hamels, Pedro, and Lee in 3 straight games to advance. That is a hard task for any team and it's not really the best route for success. Look for the Dodgers to be aggressive tonight against Blanton early in the count and try to keep him from getting settled. If Kentucky Joe can keep them at bay I like our offenses chances. And I like our chances to get to a second straight World Series.

That Simers column is unintelligible. I can't tell when he's being sarcastic. Is that the same guy who wrote the nonsense hive-poking anti-Philly-fan column last year?

From last thread, I'd like to thank EFF for blowing yet another myth out of the water.

The Phils' offense does not go into a shell immediately following a big offensive performance. I was going to run the numbes, but EFF already did. The Phils averaged 4.5 runs/game after a double-digit scoring output.

We win! They lose! Yes!

I am half-asleep from being at the game. More cutting observations later.

Good line from Mark Bowman of mlb.com, referring to J-Roll's "Little Red Machine" comment:
"Considering that they are making this journey with Ryan Howard, it's hard to link the word "little" to anything about this year's Phillies club."

My favorite thing about Cliff Lee is that he will still be on this team next year

"The Phils averaged 4.5 runs/game after a double-digit scoring output."

Maybe so, but it would still be nice if they got to roll over their runs, the way some cell phone services let you do with your minutes.

"Did you ever think that you see an NLCS where Padilla and Wolf would be the major obstacles to the Phillies taking a commanding lead?"

Yes, when they played for the Phils.

Of course you don't take the Dodgers lightly. If the Phils beat the Dodgers, and Bud Selig decides they have to play a one game playoff against the KC Royals,you don't take them lightly, either.
That said, the Dodgers look done. If it wasn't for one bad inning, they would be down 3-0. My hunch is they might win 1 more game.

Dodgers desperately need somebody to pick them up offensively for the rest of the series and carry them. Manny doesn't look capable and the rest of the guys in the Dodgers lineup all have some notable offensive holes too right now.

Biggest thing though seems to be Furcal killing them at the top of the lineup. He hasn't been the defensive liability he was in last year's NLCS but he has done next to nothing offensively.


"My favorite thing about Cliff Lee is that he will still be on this team next year"

I wonder what Cliff Lee thinks about living and playing in Philly? Would be consider staying here with a new contract after 2010 or are there places he'd prefer over the tri-state area? I know it's early but has anyone heard or read anything on this?


Although I agree that it might be risky to assess the series outcome on last night's game, if you look at the way they played the game last night after an ugly loss and assess the series that way, it's a bit less risky. They are unphased by a win or a loss.

I'd think Cliff Lee thinks he looks mighty nice wearing the Bloodstripes for as long as he has Howard, Werth, Utley, Raul, Ruiz et al at his back.

I love it when the Phillies win 11-0. If I were the Dodgers, the thought of facing Pedro and Lee in possible games 6 & 7 make it seem like an impossible task. I think Bulldog Blanton is ready to give us another workmanlike game of quality.

It's great to be a Phillies fan.

Chaz - agreed on Simer's column. It is a mess. And yes, he spent most of last year's NLCS dogging Philly and Philly fans.

I was at the game last night, but in less-than-desirable seats. Therefore, I couldn't see location of pitches, etc. I just got done watching the condensed game on mlb.tv and from what I saw, Cliff Lee was once again stellar.

Interesting info I heard on the radio while leaving the ballpark: Lee was on the mound for 43 minutes and commercials for the game added up to more than an hour.

"Enter Jayson Werth. Here is a man capable of lunging, hopelessly overmatched futility on one swing and then a thermonuclear detonation the next. This time it's a 5-megaton blast, the ball climbing in a majestic arc and landing at the back of the greenery in center field. Chopped up into singles, it would be a week's worth of hits."

Yeah, I think that's just ridiculous purple prose for the most part. The Inky should hire Jason. He's very good when he does his more writerly posts.

"Interesting info I heard on the radio while leaving the ballpark: Lee was on the mound for 43 minutes and commercials for the game added up to more than an hour."

Absolutely believable.

Why does the woman with asthma have no face?

"In the driver's seat." Not yet. When we're up 3-1, THEN we'll be in the driver's seat.
Right now, we're in good shape---but too early to celebrate.

I knew it was a Cliff Lee game when I looked at my clock at the end of the 9th inning and it said something like 11:20 pm instead of 12:45 am. The man works fast.

Simers= Worst writer in sports. Ramblings of a lunatic.

A Family Guy quote sums up my feelings on last night:

[Cliff Lee's performance] tickles me in a way, that if Loretta tickled me in that way, I'd say, Oh yeah ... that's nice ... that's the spot.

Haven't the Phils scored as many runs vs the mighty LA bullpen as the Dodgers have the whole series vs everybody?

Carlos Ruiz = Senor Octobre

Sorry if it's been covered already, I can't catch up on the hundred of comments posted in between visits, but Choock is sick in the postseason.

I'm going to be in downtown Boston on Friday night. Hopefully we don't get to a Game 6, but in case we do, I would like to watch with a pro-Phils crowd. Any suggestions for Philly bars in Boston?

Thanks

phargo: if you look closely, they show her face for about a split second when she walks by one of the chart displays.

Considering the BL consensus about three weeks ago was that this team would be lucky to win a playoff series and that they are "the worst [93] win team in history," the fact that so many posters are putting this series in the bag gives me an uneasy feeling.

The Dodgers had the best record in the NL for a reason. While I still feel very good about the Phils' chances to wrap it up at home, they're not going to just sit around and let us kick them in the nuts three times in a row.

I like Ruiz right in the 8 spot even if he is hitting over .400 for the playoffs. Since the middle of the order is hitting well, Ruiz's ability to turn the lineup over almost every single AB is so huge.

I feel bad(not really) for anyone who has to face the Phillies when Ryan Howard is locked in - he is like no other player when he's riding a hot streak.

Great win. Good to see Mr. April get 2 hits also. Mr. September is slowly breaking all Phillies playoff records. Very impressive considering he has played in less playoff series than Schmidt, but is obliterating all of the career playoff records.

Where is sophist? Let's hear again why Howard is'nt as great a slugger as Schmidt.

After Friday’s tension filled game, it was great to have the Phillies offense in overdrive (including a Ryan Howard triple!) and to watch Cliff Lee pitch a masterpiece. By the way, does anyone watching at home have any Avocado dip? I didn’t, and I don’t think that’s bush league, man! Chevy Chase looks really old too.

"Mr. September is slowly breaking all Phillies playoff records. Very impressive considering he has played in less playoff series than Schmidt, but is obliterating all of the career playoff records.

Where is sophist? Let's hear again why Howard is'nt as great a slugger as Schmidt."

Back then, there were way fewer playoff games. I imagine that has something to do with it.

Billingsly, I hope you didn't mean Mark Loretta?

"Even Jamie Moyer... and contrary to popular opinion, played a big role in the Phillies' success down the stretch."

Huh... How... and where did that come from?

It was a lot easier to pitch around Schmidt since he was the only real power threat in the lineup. Take the 1980 team for example:

1. Michael Jack - 48 HRs
2. Greg Luzinski - 19 HRs
3. Garry Maddox - 11 HRs

No one else even had double-digits in HRs.

More annoying, The avacado commercial or the Frank TV commercials from a few years back?

Both are complete overkill, although I am craving an avacodo. I will ,however, never turn on Frank TV (if it is still around).

I digress, but just want to mention that I don't know what product Fergie is promoting but, um, definitely not overkill.

I don't get annoyed at all by the commercials (love the mute button) but I'd much rather hear about avocados than Frank TV. Did that show actually ever air?

CY - I think you have to put the George Lopez commercials in that discussion. In fact, I had a friend at Dodger stadium for Game 1 who said that they had a George Lopez commercial between innings at the ballpark - can't even get away from them there.

NEPP: HR totals in 1980 don't tell the hole story. Greg Luzinski from '75 thru '80 was a much more feared hitter than Jason Werth has ever been. In fact, Luzinski was better than Schmidt for most of those years. The difference being Luzinski's career fell off a cliff at age 30 whereas Schmidt kept producing through his mid 30's.

SPitz - Agreed. TBS needs to learn about over exposure.

I don't think anything could top the Frank TV commercials. Those were all-time bad.

UD Hens.....Fergie?

You've got to be kidding.

She looks rid hard and hung up to dry.

Yech.

Spitz - it's been a few years, but Champions (near Copley) used to get a good crowd for Eagles games and I imagine some of the same folks might turn out for baseball. I didn't know any other philly-specific bars in Boston.

I'm not a huge fan of the bar itself though - pricey and very mediocre food. Eat before you go.

Lefty tonight...maybe they should think about starting Cairo at first.

Headline on Dodger blog Truebluela.com: "Carlos Ruiz = Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, and Mike Piazza all rolled into one"

Couldn't have said it better myself.

TK: I think Bruntlett has had more experience there in a Phillies uniform. And he's got the team's only unassisted triple play. And he's the major's active leader in World Series-winning runs scored.

Bruntlett should get the start at first tonight.

Randy Wolf is gonna give you what he always gives you. Five solid innings. Lots of 3-2 counts,9-pitch ABs with a lot of strikeouts and flyouts. Hopefully some of them are big flies and the Phils can get an early lead tonight and send Wolfie to the showers early, before the Dodgers bring in all the flame throwers from the pen.

****NEPP: HR totals in 1980 don't tell the hole story. Greg Luzinski from '75 thru '80 was a much more feared hitter than Jason Werth has ever been. In fact, Luzinski was better than Schmidt for most of those years. The difference being Luzinski's career fell off a cliff at age 30 whereas Schmidt kept producing through his mid 30's.****

Yeah, I know that, but I also think its fair to say that our current team is far deeper in the power department than the 1976-1980 teams.

Spitz - I'm more of a 'home on the couch' Phillies guy, but a bunch of people go to An Tua Nua by Fenway Park/Kenmore Square for Eagles/Phillies games. Place is a dollar-draft college bar/karaoke/dance lounge some nights, though, so you might have to give them a ring beforehand and see if any Philly fans have anything planned.

Re: Howard vs Schmidt's playoff numbers

Tray said, "Back then, there were way fewer playoff games. I imagine that has something to do with it."

Howard : Series 6 G 24 Ab 107 Hr 5 RBI 22 Avg.300 OPS.969

Schmidt: Series 8 G 36 Ab 140 Hr 4 RBI 16 Avg.236 OPS.690

Schmidt played in more games and produced less than Howard.


Schmidt, as a whole, was not exactly Mr. October.

I'd like to put this one away early and give the entire national media a big "Eff You." The dream Yankee/Dodger matchup that they're all dreaming about (Torre vs old team, ARod/Manny in post steroid reinvigoration mode, Old school Brooklyn vs. Bronx, 2 biggest media markets, etc.) ain't happening.

It sure would be fun to be the underdog again, too. I think this team really thrives on that kind of stuff.

Hey guys,

I'm looking for a website where I can denigrate the greatest third baseman (at 6'2" his genetics predisposed him to the position) in baseball history, even though he played for my favorite team. I'd like use a really small sample size despite the fact that he had a really long career and it will make me look totally ridiculous.

Also, despite the fact that he played for my favorite team, I'd like to compare him to another player who also plays for my favorite team who I think is better. I can't like both of them the same cause that would require me holding two thoughts in my head at the same time. Does anyone know where I can find that website?

Thanks for your help!

Um, Noah? Pretty much everyone on this site will tell you that Michael Jack was the greatest 3B to ever play the game and probably one of the Top 5-10 players in the history of baseball.

I was able to visit last week. If I didn't know any better, I'd think that Philly's identity as a "football town" was in serious jeopardy....

Yes, Howard is seeing more fastballs than last year. Anyone else have a theory? Here's mine in 8 words:

"Protected by Jason Werth instead of Pat Burrell."

No disrect to Pat. But it's like night and day. Werth is definitely helping Howard this year.

Not sure what the career numbers are, but Wolf strikes me as the kind of lefty who generally gives Howard fits. I'm picturing that big, slow curveball of his coming across the outside of the plate and repeatedly fooling Howard. At the same time, Howard has been seeing the ball better than any time in his career, so it will be interesting to see if he can lay off those pitches tonight like he's been doing for the rest of the postseason.

Noah - There was a 25 minute lull on the BL site as all were afraid the baseball gods would hurl down thunderbolts after the blasphemy against Michael Jack.

Given your name I guess you were expecting floods instead.

Noah - Excellent post. Very true.

"The Dodgers had the best record in the NL for a reason. While I still feel very good about the Phils' chances to wrap it up at home, they're not going to just sit around and let us kick them in the nuts three times in a row." Iceman

My wife asked me at lunch what I thought. I told her exactly the same thing almost word for word as the above, but the last 10 words were phrased a bit diferently.

"I'm looking for a website where I can denigrate(Mike Schmidt)"

Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Charlie Manual and Brad Lidge get denigrated on this site daily. If they can get can get some Schmidt can get some.

I'll beat clout to the punch on this one.

Pat Burrell's 2007 stats:

Avg.: .256
OBP: .400
Slugging: .502
Homeruns: 30
Extra base hits: 56

Pat Burrell's 2008 stats:

Avg: .250
OBP: .367
Slugging: .507
Homeruns: 33
Extra base hits: 69

Jayson Werth's 2009 stats:

Avg: .268
OBP: .373
Slugging: .506
Homeruns: 36
Extra base hits: 63

There's certainly a big difference between Werth & Burrell on things like speed & defense. But if there's a difference as hitters, it's more like the difference between 12:30 a.m. and 12:32 a.m. than it is "like night and day."

I expect the remaining games of this series being more like Game 1. Close, hard fought contests that end in victory for the Fightins.

Do not underestimate the element of the crowd getting under the skin of Randy Wolf tonight. Wolf had a very shaky start at home, and tonight he has the following things going against him:

1. First playoff road start.
2. Team is down 2-1.
3. Playing against his old team.

The fans are going to smell blood and really lay into him tonight. I predict an early exit for Randy.

Let's not worry about Mike Schmidt. More important is the need to put LAD away tonight. And there aretwo things that stand out: first,is that Ruiz has owned Wolf this year and when you combine that knowledge with the fact that our new Senor Octobre is really seeing the ball well I am wondering whetehr it doesn't make more sense to move him up a bit in the line up. Second, WOld throws a lot of pitches and leavres after 6 innings so we have to prepare for the following 3 innigns as well. I realize that is much more thinking that ZCholly will do but suppose we tweak the lineup as follows:

Victorino (has hit wolf better than Rollins)
Rollins
Ibanez (hits lefties anyway)
Howard (too hot to move too far down)
Werth (has not hit WOlf but will others)
Utley (He seems to be in a funk anyway)
Ruiz (Very focused now and loves WOlf)
Feliz (great at third and you never know)

The advantage of this line up is that in addition of Ruiz moving up Howard and Utley are separated which will nullify the lefty issue (Iabanez has been hitting lefties) after WOlf leaves in the 6th inning (having thrown over 110 pitches).
ButI am being silly our manager would never do anything like that.

The Phils and Dodgers are two very evenly matched teams. The Dodgers' offense, heretofor fairly silent, is capable of breaking out at any moment. Both teams have their holes--Phils in the BP and bench and LA in their starting rotation.

I will say this, however: if the Phils find a way to win tonight, I really like their chances of taking the series. Having to win three straight games with Hamels, Pedro and Lee would be a tall mountain to climb, IMO.

Marc H: The only people who thought that was possible were people paying attention to NL baseball this season.

Just out of curiosity, how many times do you think TBS, ESPN, etc. will talk about Wolf's "experience pitching the first game ever at CBP" before noticing that he, uh, LOST that game?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI200404120.shtml


We'll have to see Wolf pitch tonight before we can assess whether he will be a major, minor, or any obstacle at all.

RK, the team scored 11 run yesterday and has scored 20 runs in 3 games in this series, and you want to make changes to the batting order?

Bay: I have no idea how Wolf will do tonight, but I'm not sure how being down 2-1, or pitching against his old team, work against him. If anything, going against one's old team is usually a motivator. In Wolf's case, though, it has been 3 full years since he was with the Phillies. I tend to think the statute of limitations has run on any "former team" effect, if such a thing exists in the first place.

What might be a factor, though, is that Wolf is a fly-ball pitcher who, as I recall, has previously expressed his dislike for CB Park. His career ERA in CB Park (4.40) IS considerably higher than his overall career ERA (4.13), but much of that occurred, of course, when he was with the Phillies. Over the last year and a half, he has pitched better than at any other point in his career, and his FO/GO stats are no longer as extreme as they once were. Plus, his last 2 starts at CB Park have been good ones. Wolf may not like pitching there, but the park is probably no more a factor for him than for Blanton.

I'll go out on a limb and predict that UC shakes things up with the following lineup tonight:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz
(Pitcher)

NEPP: I disagree. We can't leave Howard in against a lefty starter. I predict:

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Bruntlett
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz
(Pitcher)

Spitz-
As SC referred to above, Champions at the Marriott Hotel in Copley is the place to be for any Phils/Eagles game.

I always saw it as an unofficial "home base" for Philadelphian ex-pats looking for a place to gather with other Phans for any big game.

"In Wolf's case, though, it has been 3 full years since he was with the Phillies. I tend to think the statute of limitations has run on any "former team" effect,"

Ah, but if the Wolf Pack is out in full swing, then I think we can throw the 3 years thing out. If he'd been gone for 100 years, the Wolf Pack would be enough to bring out the nostalgia and old feelings. The Wolf Pack transcends time and space.

;-)

The Randy Wolf hates CBP thing can be found here:
http://dodgers.scout.com/a.z?s=283&p=2&c=711337

The Phils can't win the series tonight, but LA can certainly lose it. Let's hope they do.

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