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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

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From the last thread:

MG, the Phillies mailed it in for one game, the Mets for 1/4 the season.

What's Mitchy Poo doing on CSN Postgame Live? I thought he was always on the MLB Netowrk?

Law of averages? Marlins beat Moyer for the first time ever in Wow, Whole Sections Are Empty Every Night Stadium, and also their first win vs us there this year I think?

Frankly the only thing that has really mattered since after Labor Day is who will be available in the bullpen and what role they will have.

Further injuries have only complicated matters a bit but that is about the only really compelling thing to watch on this team over the next 2 weeks. Rest of just a matter of semantics really and getting the starters a little rest.

Hugh, The "latissimus muscle" is commonly known as the "lat", it's on the side of your back below your shoulder and arm pit. Odd to hear that, since he was complaining of shoulder soreness, which would normally be connected to either the Trapezius or Deltoid muscle, or the rotator cuff.

And Houston is mailing it in against St. Louis. Hope to take four from them next week to even out the season series.

oKay, smoky joe. That is actually consistent with the puzzling reports which placed his disomfort in that area of his back. gratuitous jokes about his night life omitted

About the only interesting thing in the nightcap was another strong spot start by Moyer. Moyer has really quietly had an excellent 2nd half coming into tonight:

10 G, 7 GS, 4-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 55 IP

If you would have asked me 3 weeks ago if Moyer had a shot on the postseason roster, I would have said "hell no" with with all of the injury questions lingering about the pitching staff and the lack of depth in the bullpen it wouldn't surprise me if Moyer sneaks on to the postseason roster especially if he has another strong start or two.

BTY - Moyer has some really dramatic road vs. home splits. At CBP, he has been a disaster:

15 G, 13 GS, 6-7, 6.10 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 1.91 B/BB

On the road, Moyer has been very good:

12 G, 11 GS, 6-2, 3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.39 K/BB

Either way I think Moyer has shown enough down the stretch to merit serious consideration both for the postseason roster and as the 5th starter next year.

From last thread:

EFF, sorry to sound like I was questioning you. That post was more of me thinking out loud. You may have already realized that one of the teams would knock the other out, but it just dawned on me.

MG, I'd feel better about Moyer than Durbin in the postseason.

MG - i have recently come to the conclusion that Moyer will probably be on the post-season roster. He is the long man. If Lee, Hamels or Blanton sh!ts th e bed in a game, you either move one of them up to replace him or you bring in your long man. If you go with the better pitcher, Moyer gets game 4. Happ could be that guy but, it seems he is destined to be Madson's counterpart late and close.

So that makes it that we're 7 1/2 up with 12 to go, right? For some reason that feels much more comfortable than, say, just one game less might be ...

I'd be very surprised if Jamie isn't on the roster for the playoffs.

O.P. - poorly worded. I'll be very surprised if Moyer isn't on the post-season roster. The man's an institution on top of being a rock solid fifth starter.

Phils are 88-62 - 12 to play.
Braves are 81-70 - 11 to play.
Fish are 81-71 - 10 to play.

If the Phillies go 4-8, the Bravos must win all 11 just to tie, and the Marlins cannot win enough games to catch them.

It the Phillies go 5-7....bye, bye Bravos.


I'm more concerned about them winning out enough to overtake the the Dodgers, and not fall behind the Cards in the loss column.

OK. Jamie will be pitching in the post season for your Philadelphia Phillies.

I expect the offense to still be tired tomorrow from playing 2 today, plus the last nite out in this town for the year. No big deal at this point, just will make for a game as boring as tonites. I'm usually up pretty late, but I fell asleep in the 7th.

Attn. stat guys: I asked this question months ago, but never got an answer.
What is the LEAST number of wins for the winningest pitcher of a team that has made it to the post-season?

For me, Moyer's place on the postseason roster was never in question, but I'm very happy to see it emerging as a consensus. He's pitched well in a lot of different situations over the last couple months, and has been a very important and effective member of this staff for 3+ years.

I'm also putting in my (meaningless) vote for Lidge as postseason closer and Hamels as Game 1 starter. Trust the gut.

Moyer making the postseason roster isn't necessarily a great sign because there are other guys who likely would be better positioned to help this team out of the pen in the postseason if they were healthy.

All said though, Moyer has given the Phils alright value again this year if he finishes with 12-13 wins and an ERA of 5.00.

The discussion of the postseason pitching staff is pure speculation at this point. There are far too many question marks due to injury to predict any of it, beyond Hamels, Lee, Blanton and Madson. Heck, Moyer could be the #4 starter and Kendrick the long man, if both Happ and Martinez have nagging injuries. Or Kendrick and Moyer could be on the outside looking in, if Eyre, Romero, Happ, Myers and Park all look good between now and the end of the season. There are way to many moving parts to make any predictions at this point.

Brad: I agree with every word of your post. But how else are we gonna entertain ourselves between now and the end of the season, except by speculating about what the post-season roster will look like?

I'm as paranoid as the next guy, but as far as the 0-3 game goes, this really has got to be a case where you give them a collective pass. Even if they were to have the most spectacular collapse in the history of sport from this point on going forward, a bad game in the second game of a doubleheader while things appeared to be going smoothly after a well won series win in atlanta ain't going to be what killed them.

Luis, any collapse would, at this point have to be worse than 1964.

See my post above.

Even if the Phillies go 3-9, the Braves would still have to win ALL 11 of their remaining games to pass them. The Fish would only be able to tie by winning their remaining 10.

But, it's impossible for both of them cannot win the rest of their games, as they play each other, and either the Fish or Bravos will lose at least one game in their series.

By winning the series against the Braves, and taking Game 1 from the Marlins, the Phillies have shrunk the margin of error for both teams to the point where coolstandings.com calculates that they both have a 0.1% chance of winning the division, and the Braves have only a 4.0% chance of making the playoffs. The Marlins playoff chances a 0.7%.

Simply put, as ugly as last night's second game was, the Phillies are taking care of their business - beating the teams they must beat, their division rivals.

Unless we expect them to be perfect and win every game, what more can we really ask for.

Besides, Anibal Sanchez is a good pitcher - let's not forget that.

Hamels vs. VandenHurk tonight is a very favorable mathcup in which we should have a magic # of 4 following the game.

One of the other between the Marlins or Braves will lose at least 2 games, not one.

So, the Phillies have to go 4-8 AND have the FISH go 11-0 for us to tie. The most wins the Braves can get is 91 and the Fish 92. I would guess our chances are 99.9% right about now. Of course, here at BL, I am sure the dumb and dumber comment would be, so you are saying there is a chance...

With the injuries, I have to think Moyer is a lock to be on the roster for the first series in the playoffs.

I was encouraged by Blanton's fine outing, and ditto to a lesser degree for Moyer's losing effort. The impotent bats in the nightcap were disappointing, but at least we didn't have to see Lidge trotted out last night.

I'm with Smoky Joe, if it comes down to one post season slot between Durbin and Moyer, I'd vote to see the Durb wearing street clothes.

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