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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

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Let's wrap it up tonight with a nice W. No backing into the playoffs for us!

You couldn't work the getting casual picture into tonight's graphic?

I'm getting ready to head down tonight. Section 105. I'll be the guy who is *still* wearing his Lidge jersey.

I feel just a little bit better seeing Pedro's face as we get ready for a potential close out game than, say, Uncle Cholly's. This was a huge midseason pickup that has shown nothing but upside.

MLBTradeRumors says that all three Phillies outfielders will be Type A free agents. Pedro Feliz just barely misses the cut to be Type B.

Type A:
Cliff Lee (91.426 points)
Chase Utley (90.783)
Raul Ibanez (86.458)
Ryan Madson (83.291)
Jayson Werth (81.875)
Shane Victorino (80.417)
Cole Hamels (78.766)
Ryan Howard (73.793)
Brad Lidge (72.549)

Type B:
Scott Eyre (67.889)
Chad Durbin (67.320)
Jamie Moyer (66.907)
Joe Blanton (65.224)
Chan Ho Park (64.365)
J.C. Romero (62.148)
Jimmy Rollins (60.000)
Clay Condrey (59.733)
Tyler Walker (59.321)

Non-Type A or Type B:

Pedro Feliz (59.890)
Ben Francisco (57.083)
J.A. Happ (52.965)
Brett Myers (50.481)
Matt Stairs (43.542)
Greg Dobbs (43.407)
Pedro Martinez (38.942)
Eric Bruntlett (11.250)
Miguel Cairo (10.690)
Antonio Bastardo (9.054)
John Ennis (2.083)

An interesting way to look at each player's value.

loctastic, you're allowed to wear the Lidge jersey, just so long as you don't get within 50' of the pitcher's mound in a save situation.

WP - no worries, I'm not drinking tonight, so the chances are pretty low on that. 50-50

JR - why are you worried about free agency now? IT'S PLAYOFF TIME (almost). Worry about free agency during the off season. Better yet, worry when players actually become free agents.

With the end of the season approaching, I dipped back into our prediction thread from March.

Here's what I said:
"This year, I think we're one win better. I think we'll have a stronger rotation, a weaker bullpen and the offense will be about the same. 93-69"

Here's what some other regulars said (forgive me if I don't list yours and this is not a list of the Beerleaguer Elite!):
Lake Fred 98-64
baxter 94-68
bap 94-68
donc 92-70
Bed Beard 92-70
Jack 91-71
RSB 90-72
Sophist 89-73
NEPP 89-73
JMarr 89-73
Alby 88-74
MG 88-74

Coste being interview on DNL. Ah, feels like old times.

BTW, he's pulling for the Phils in the playoffs.

Why didn't my prediction of 162-0 make the list?

Willard, your dad needs to stash his vinyl and upgrade to the digital world. The audio purist swear by vinyl, but 40 year old vinyl played a thousand times is sure to be warped, scratched and dirty. He'll be grooving better in his La-Z-Boy listening to clean crisp digital ZZ Top on his iPod.

I feel a big game for Pedro. His big head hurt his neck last time out. A division clincher should have a determined Pedro swirling pitches past the inept Astros.

Sorry, but vinyl is always better, just less convenient.
Pedro is going to come through tonight.

hmmm maybe because i didn't post my prediction on that thread...

Dear Mr. Weitzel: I am wiping a tear from my eye and the chill off my shoulders. That leading graphic is BEAUTIFUL, man. (sniffle) I'm catchin' the fever now, go PEDRO!!

Cipper: I almost included Wes Chamberlain's prediction of 161-1. He felt we'd lose on Opening night and win the rest.

Frankly, I'm shocked that we never got an official clout prediction. Oh wait, no I'm not. Carry on.

CJ - I was just thinking about the predictions this morning. I don't remember what mine was. I think it was 95-67. Do you have a link to the predictions thread?

loctastic, just put a ©2008 under Lidge's name on the jersey and you'll be OK.

CJ, thanks for showing that list with me acting like Magic Carpet Rider MVPTommyd with the high end prediction. If this team hadn't been swept in Houston and Lidge had had a more decent season, 98 victories would've been reasonable.

Old Phan, back in the day we used to listen to these songs on old tinny AM radios and really crap record players. I know that I recently bought a Rolling Stones remaster SACD version of Aftermath and you can hear things that were never audible on vinyl.

Love the Graphic, JW.

No need for words at this point. I'm tired of analyzing this year's Phils.

It's time to win that division and defend that title

Do it for HK boys

Old Phan, that was the UK version of Aftermath with the extra songs, well worth the money.

LF, SACDs have a much higher bandwidth than most digital recordings these days, but all they are really trying to do is emulate analog. True, though, about the crappy stereos of the past.

Lake Fred: The bulk of predictions were around 89 or 90 wins. We may be closer to your prediction than the "consensus" by Sunday!

LF, I have that one, too. One of my favorite Stones albums.

CJ - "This year, I think we're one win better. I think we'll have a stronger rotation, a weaker bullpen and the offense will be about the same. 93-69"

Bullpen has been weaker. Rotation has been weaker. Offense is better.

1 for 3. Your batting average is still way better than anybody on the Phillies. Your prediction of 93 wins, however, will make or break your season.

Aside from Lake Fred, did everyone take note whose post was the most optimistic of the bunch? CJ also left out the last 3 words of my preseason prediction, which were "WFC."

Chase Utley 'aka' the 2nd best player in baseball according to Jack and a few others... Also owner of the 2nd best OPS on his own team.

TNA: I protest! We're averaging 5.06 runs per game this year compared to 4.93 runs per game last year. That's a difference of .07 runs per game. I think the offense is about the same. :-) I'd also contend that our rotation of Hamels-Lee-Blanton-Happ-Martinez is clearly superior to last year at this point! If we finish at 93 wins, I'm going to claim I went 4 for 4!!!

Moehler 6.19 career ERA vs. the Phillies.

mikes77phillies: Are you suggesting OPS is the only measure of a player?

Chase Utley is second in the NL in WAR (wins above replacement) behind just Albert Pujols.

The Phils ranking in WAR is: Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino, Rollins, Feliz.

Found that flashback thread amusing, especially the Phils vs. Royals WS prediction.

I also noticed I was too chicken sh** to make a prediction, but I'm big enough to admit it. I don't like making predictions, because I'm about as superstitious as they come. It's part of my PA Dutch culture.

MLB.com homepage is advertising their 2008 MLB.com Fantasy Preview. Much more accurate when you put it together two years later.

I stand by my 89-73 prediction. I assume we'll be penalized several wins at some point.

I did predict a repeat as NL East champs but I figured we'd fall back a bit due to a WS Hangover...I never expected Cliff Lee AND Pedro Martinez.

HH - Yeah, I remember the Phils/Royals WS prediction. I almost fell over.

And I hear ya re: the PA Dutch superstition thing. It kept me from watching the game last night.

Is anyone else confident about tonights game?

Things I would like to see tonite:
1.Phils take big lead into the 9th.
2.Lidge comes in.
3.With 2 outs,Walker comes in to play 3B.
4.Phils clinch.
5.Walker is the first guy to jump on Lidge,putting him out for October.

Mick: Absolutely not! It wouldn't be like the Phillies to clinch the division with 4 games left in the season. If I know my Phillies, they will lay an egg tonight and tomorrow, while the Braves are winning both games. In fact, I've already prepared tomorrow night's post in which I rant and rave about how we're going to blow this the division. I've also written a bunch of posts for tonight's game, in which I talk about how much Utley and Victorino are stinking it up right now. I like to get things done ahead of time.

How in the world did BAP predict 94 wins?

I see the bats coming around tonight and helping Pedro out.

However I might stat ranting if they cant get out of the first inning.

That's it Pedro, set up the DP ball.

Tale of 2 seasons:

Pre-ASB ERA: 4.61 (14th of 16th and this was arguably the worst staff in NL until Memorial Day.
Post-ASB ERA: 3.57 (4th of 16th)

Pre-ASB R/G: 5.35 (1st)

Post-ASB R/G: 4.72 (tied 5th of 16th)

That post-ASB doesn't tell you that since Aug. 1 this offense is at 4.48 which puts them 8th out of 16 teams)

This is why Pedro as closer is one of the zaniest ideas to take hold on Beerleaguer in all of 2009.

Kutztown: I'm by no means worried about free agency. I just think the Elias point system is an interesting way to evaluate the talent that's on the ballclub right now.

You know, just as some people are "night people," do you think it's at all possible that a given pitcher could be more effective at 9:00 than 7:00? Never thought about that before but I don't see why it wouldn't be (possible).

JR - gotcha.

Now, back to not watching the games until after they clinch. It worked last night.

30 pitches later...

At least he battled through it. Now he needs to settle down and go 6 strong.

Ok. Not terrible. 1 run. We'll be alright.

I guess it is going to be up to our BP

Pedro got squeeeeeeeezed. Hopefully the strikezone will remain the same in the bottom of the innings.

Well... after that first inning, Pedro only has 100 pitches left in him for the night.

Considering that I was expecting a Hunter Pence grand slam, a 1-run inning feels like an extraordinarily favorable outcome to that inning.

Not a terrible inning for Pedro. First two hits were ground balls that found holes. One solid single up the middle. And he was an inch or two from getting out of the inning without allowing a run.

Pedro lives for this kind of thing. I think he'll settle in for the next couple innings.

@bay_area_phan:

Yeah, Pedro as closer is definitely a zany idea. I think his first inning ERA is closer to 6 than 5 - and it makes sense. He doesn't have the power he used to; if he has anything it's a lot of tools and a lot of experience. He has to figure teams out to get them out and in that respect he's similar to Moyer - another guy in the same vein, and another "not your closer" guy.

.250!

Sac bunting here by Vic is so stupid.

WOOHOO!!!

Finally over .250!!!

Normally that would be pretty ridiculous to bunt over with your 2-hole hitter but the way this team has struggled to store runs and with Vic struggling, it was a sound move and executed well.

Now the dreaded RISP . . .

Well our choices were sac bunt or weak ground ball. The bunt is more likely to advance the runner.

MG: That's even more reason why it's ridiculous.

Good work Chase...get that RBI.

Nice Ryan...nice.

Pedro needs to settle down

Love that replay...right?

So, I guess the umps do know how to use replay in important situations. Good to know.

Makes you appreciate how Moyer pitches when it's his turn on clinch day.

Pedro will not make it to the 4th inning

Can we get that Greg Dobbs HR now?

It seems like the guys that Pedro is allowing HRs to are generally not your big power-hitters. Willie Haris, Velez, Pagan.

Pitch count up already. Not good.

It seems like Pedro tries to sneak pitches by non-Power hitters.

Bourn was out

I was actually thinking what the situation must have been for Bourn to actually be doubled up on a ground ball. The scenario that just happened (with the tag) could've likely been it.

Pitch count is high, I was hoping Pedro would step it up for this game.

Maybe he can settle in

this ump's strike zone is bs.

51 pitches for Pedro.

So only 80 to go...pitchwise.

one nice thing about mlb.tv, can have the marlins/braves game on at the same time

mm - I don't understand MLB. They implement these largely meaningless rules to speed up the game (e.g., the pitch must throw a pitch or the hitter must get back into the box in a certain amount of time) yet you have pitches that are clearly strikes by any measure consistently called balls. Umps don't call a strike above the belt anymore and it is getting to the point where even a strike at the knees is an iffy call.

2 on 0 out for the Fish

How upsetting would it be to get in tonight with a Marlins win?

Marlins 1 Braves 0

So Pedro is proving he can't pitch in important games.

Mick, it wouldnt upset me in the least.

Marlins up 1-0. Runners on 1st and 3rd with one out!

Lack of long-men out of the pen is going to really hurt the Phils potentially tonight. It looks like they might need a minimum of 2 IP from KK tonight.

Wp scores a run. 2-0 marlins. 1 out, runner on third.

RBI Single. Marlins up 3-0. Runner on 1st. Two outs.

Old Phan: To keep you from getting upset, Phils are gonna need to win, Fish are up 3-0 in third and appear to be getting to Vasquez

The Cooch-Cooch Train is back brothas!

Mets blew a save on a walkoff grandslam by Justin Maxwell in the bottom of the ninth. 3-2 count, 2 outs.

@gm-carson

I assume you mean chooch-chooch train.

I don't think Carlos is that crotchety...

Uh, John,

I hope you're joking here. Pedro has proved his ability to pitch in big games many times during his career to the point where I don't think you can seriously challenge his clutch capacity. He may not have the command he needs tonight, but I'm surprised someone would put out the idea that he can't pitch in an important game.

T-Mac calls games like he's yelling out Bingo numbers at some sleazy AC casino.

Mick: Wouldn't upset me either. If the Phillies had a 1-game lead on the last day of the season, and ended up winning the division only because both they and the Braves lost their final game, I would call that backing into the playoffs. But the Phillies have a 5-game lead. They've earned the division title over the first 157 games of the season. If the clincher happens because of a Braves loss, instead of a Phillies win, there is no shame whatsoever.

That said, I'd much rather we win.

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