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Saturday, September 26, 2009

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Maybe we'll get a leadoff hitter next year.

KK, lights out baby!

Maybe Utley's saving his first hot streak of the summer for October.

Anyone else just hear Franzke break down the numbers with/without Howard's? Astounding. Something like in the 4 losses, Howard's got 9 RBIs in 16 ABs, whereas the rest of the team in those losses has 5 RBIs in 118 ABs.

Guess he's carrying the team in September again.

Am I just imagining things, or does KK seem a lot more controlled and composed on the mound, compared to last year?

Bako!!!

Utley is having a bad September. His plate discipline has deteriorated, reverting back to the form of previous seasons where he would strike out twice as often as walk. His overall line for the month is 222/327/367 for an OPS of 694. He's been relatively steady for the entire year up until September. The sooner the Phillies clinch the better. Given his penchant to deny injuries, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a broken foot, or something like that.

Utley's left leg was actually amputated from the knee down back in late August. He's been playing on a prostetic since that time.

NEPP - Bionic Utley? But he's so much more than a six million dollar man.

$11,285,714 man to be exact.

Utley is second only to Pujols with 7.9 WAR this season. All without a single hot streak, somehow.

Utley is also going to somehow fail to drive in 100 runs out of the 3 hole this year.

Sorry, it did not occur to me that people still looked at RBI counts.

Too many walks for him to pile up RBIs...that and the complete lack of a hot-strek.

curt: Considering that Utley has 31 homers, a respectable .284 average with RISP, and a .307/.432/.529 line with runners on base, the conclusion I draw is that his drop in RBIs has far more to do with the leadoff hitter's .291 OBP than with anything that Utley has done wrong.

Reverse black hole tonight - bottom 3 are 5 for 6, top 3 are 0 fer 6.

Was that bat glued to Kendricks shoulder. Gotta tack a hack at some point. Jeez

The lack of 100 RBIs is not Utley's fault. It is one of those things that will hurt him at some point in the future when they say "Utley had X # of 100 RBI seasons" when arguing for or against his HOF case".

Sadly, that stat will still probably matter...along with the "X # of consecutive 100 RBI seasons" one.

NEPP: Welcome back. I actually was wondering where you had been. When you have some free time, you ought to go back and read the threads from the past week. You missed some very solid discussions about deer-in-the-headlights ratios and about how Brad Lidge is the best choice for closer since our goal over the last 2 weeks is to lose games so we can face the Dodgers in the first round.

bap - Absolutely right about the Jimmy factor. Also right about the "respectable" .284, but we're talking about the "2nd best player in the game" here, not an ordinary #3 hitter..

Vacation in the Adirondacks with no internet access (small cabin in woods).

I will probably skim the week of threads at some point this weekend if I have the time.


This is some shameful shabby field play this inning. Man, I think I am going to get drunk

In 2008, there were RISP in 30% of Utley's plate appearances and 28% of his at-bats.
There were runners on in 48% of Utley's PAs and 45% of ABs.

In 2009, there were RISP in 28% of Utley's PA and 27% of his ABs. There were runners on in 46% of Utley's PAs and 45% of his ABs.

Conclusions? If runners were getting on base and in scoring position at the same rate as they were last year, he would've most likely hit at least 100 RBI given his higher BA/RISP and OPS of .961 with runners on.

Nothing like allowing the other team to whittle down your lead . Looking for them to play to win- to clinch. LA may have the right idea about letting them come to the ballpark late, skipping BP, given that they appear to be playing tired.

Interesting numbers, TNA. I'm actually surprised that the RISP percentage is not down much at all this year.

TNA: That's actually not as much of a difference as I would have thought. But you're right; it could be enough to account for the difference between 91 RBIs and 100.

The other missing piece of information is how many of those RISP and "runners on base" situations involved multiple runners. Despite Victorino's .11 point increase in OBP, I'd guess that, because of Rollins' huge drop, Utley has had fewer multiple-RBI opportunities this year than he did last year. That, too, could account for his drop-off in RBIs.

I love LA.. nearly throwing his headset out the window.

KK & Bako falling apart a little.

This is the Kyle Kendrick I remember so well from last year. He gets 2 strikes on hitters but then has absolutely no ability to put them away. So they just foul the ball off all day long until they get a pitch to hit. Then, when the hits starts coming, he unravels with balks, errors, hit batsmen, etc. And then things go from bad to worse.

With KK pitching, and the top 3 hitters in their lineup continuing to look absolutely inept, their odds of winning this game are slim and none.


I dont like this at all

Three outs harder to come by last two innings. Think it will be Jamie next inning?

Fortunate that Howard made the road trip - so many of his mates didn't.


The Phils have to get some more runs tonight and 1-3 in the order have to finally get into gear.

Awhile ago, some poster (I forget who) took umbrage with people who say that a guy is "literally carrying the team" -- since no player "literally" picks up 24 other players and puts them on his back.

Well, guess what? To carry does not only mean to lift. It also means, according to my dictionary, "to bear the major burden of by superior talent, determination, etc." So it is quite gramatically, and rhetorically, accurate to say that Ryan Howard is literally carrying the team right now.


I agree. There have been periods where if not for Howard, the offense would have been nearly nil

After much less than 15 minutes of fame this time around, KK back on the road to obscurity.


Moyer in. I hope he goes a full 5 innings

Despite Rollins' terrible OBP and the loss of OBP-master Burrell, the Phillies have a slightly better team OBP this year (.334) than they did last year (.332). The slugging in 2009 is about 10 pct pts higher than last year. And the average is about the same (.258 in 2009, .255 in 2008). In terms of relative OBP/SLG, the Phillies are about the same as last year as well -- mediocre or (NL league average) in OBP and tops in SLG.

Tonight illustrates for me how important it is to have good pitching and defense. stating the obvious, I realize.

Geezer!

I'll get it on the table....Moyer for closer.

:)

Spoilt Victorian Child and Curt - Utley may be 2nd in WAR, but that's largely because of his exceptional defense (according to a sample-challenged UZR metric) at a relatively difficult position. But offensively, he's way behind Pujols and provides less value than other 3-4 hitters: Mauer, Fielder, and Ramirez. Utley's offensive value puts him in the same peer class as Adrian Gonzalez and Teix.

Communicate, guys!

I can't remember the last game where the Phillies defense looked this bad. Some really bad plays tonight.

Cursing like a sailor right now.

This is getting ugly and I don't think it's Jamie's fault

Ugly horribly played game so far. Ibanez and Kendrick with errors. Werth pulls up on a ball and lets it drop right in front of him for a ground-rule double, should have been caught. J-Roll lets a pop-up bounce off his chest, allowing 2 runs. I hate watching them when they play like this, it's disgusting.

Watching the Phillies lately is positively nauseating. I should be excited about the possibility of October baseball for a 3rd straight season; instead, I'm wondering why I devote so much time to following a team that plays like this down the stretch.

"This is getting ugly and I don't think it's Jamie's fault"

LoL

That's quite a tremendous performance we've gotten tonight from the first 3 hitters in our lineup. Vic & Utley both need to ride the pine for a game or 2. Francisco & Cairo would be no worse right now.

This team is so good defensively that when they string plays together like that, it's incredibly frustrating to watch. I gave my remote a solid toss across the room for the first time in quite a while. Not fair to Moyer, who looked like he was going to put out the fire here tonight.

That is true. If you look only at batting, he falls all the way to 5th.

Is "Chico's Bail Bonds" posted on the Phils uniform nowhere tonight because they look like the Bad News Bears tonight defensively

Dare I say that the Phillies look tight? Right now they're the Mets, and the Braves are them... and I think they're starting to understand that it can be a difficult place to be...

I don't like what's been going on this last week one bit.

petey: Don't worry, Atlanta will lose enough games to bail the Phils out. Just not, you know, tonight. Or yesterday. Or any of the three games before that ...

Yeah Petey, they're the Mets. Great analogy. What a tight 5 runs they scored in the first 5 innings of the game.

Maybe it's just because we've never been in a position where the division has been wrapped up with a bunch of games to go, but either way it's interesting to see losses turn everyone into a bunch of chicken littles (if they weren't already).

A cool 0 for 17 tonight from the top 6 hitters in our order not named Ryan Howard.

Really don't want to go to xtra innings, both b/c I buy into LA's argument that they're exhausted&b/c I don't like our chances of holding their offense

Iceman: You persist in missing the point. The Phillies have already pretty much pissed away their shot at home field throughout the playoffs, are working on pissing away their shot at home field for the NLDS &, most importantly, seem intent on dragging out the regular season as long as possible, thereby missing, or at least greatly shortening, the amount of time available for R&R that so many Phils obviously, desperately need ... both physically AND mentally.

Give it up for Geezer.

Moyer with a solid job out of the pen. After his initial pouting about going to the pen, he really has turned out to be a reliable and valuable contributor as a starter/reliever in the 2nd half.

Well, this sure won't be Moyer's fault if they lose. He deserved better from both his defense and the Phillies' lineup.

"The lack of 100 RBIs is not Utley's fault."

Have you seen him this month? He's had PLENTY of opportunities to get those last nine RBIs, and he's had a bunch of bad at-bats.

Sure it would help if Jimmy had been on base more all season, but c'mon.

But can we get another inning out of 'im?

Well Jamie has certainly done his job tonight . Hey, can he spend some of his time in the bp helping Lidge I wonder.

curt - The geezers watching would give it up for Moyer but they drifted off about 30-45 minutes ago . . .

Like how the cameraman kept the camera zoomed out just in case he miffed the catch. Jesus.

Hell's Bells.

Anyone else surprised they changed that Rollins stomach bounce to a hit?

Sabathia with his 19th win. Where are the Brett Myerses of yesteryear?

Thome knocks in a pair to give Dodgers lead over the Pirates in the 8th.

Am I the only one stressing out about clinching a playoff birth??

LA Jeff: No.

Jeff: The Braves aren't good enough to catch the Phils for the division. But home field advantage isn't looking so hot right now.

JRoll has 20 HRs and nearly 80 RBIs but it just seems like he has had a poor season offensively and just isn't a guy I want to gennerally see up late with the game on the line.

Iceman: the mets' problem, if I recall, was not being tight early in games, but tight late, or even any time a game didn't go perfectly their way. that's what we've been seeing out of the phils lately...

remember all those mets fans a few years ago whining about how if the games ended after 8 innings, they'd have run away with the division?

I'm only watching on Gameday, but Hoffman looked really good. His pitches kept just barely catching the low part of the plate, in almost the same hard to hit spots.

Must be nice to have a closer who can control where the ball's going to go after it leaves his hand.

Not stressing Jeff, but cognizant of the possibility of not clinching if they can't summon enough energy to play their best


Step right up. Who gets to blow it in the 9th for the Philles?

Maybe we'll win tomorrow.

A week ago we were limping towards the finish line. Now we're limping and staggering. By the time we fall across, there will be no celebration, only relief.

timr - Yeah I thought the same thing. Hoffman isn't a HOF but he had a really nice career and been one of the more reliable relievers year-in and year-out of the past 25 years.

Oh, and how huge was that 2 out of 3 against the Braves last week? That might well prove to be the difference here at the end.

For at least a few more games, that is.

Maybe they can catch some luck tonight

Tyler Walker has done a nice job as an injury fill-in, pitching almost entirely in low leverage situations. But for him to be pitching in the 9th inning of an important game is a sorry commentary about the state of our bullpen. I'd rather have even a guy like Clay Condrey pitching right here.

This is exactly the kind of spot where Walker is going to get exposed especially if he faces left-handed bats or a left-handed PH option.

I am worried about this team. the Braves are HOT and they have an easier schedule than the Phillies. The Phillies look like the 2007 Mets.

Brewers radio says lefty is up. Is it Happ?

is anyone here at all surprised about what just happened?

Well, that's fitting.

Good hitter (Braun) ends it a batter soon than I thought they would (Fielder).

Craptastic!

No kidding curt!

And there we go -- can't seem to buy a clean 9th inning

hahahahahahahah....anybody wanna wake and play some ball from here on out?

4-0 lead against a mediocre team turns into 7-5 loss. pretty much unacceptable for a team trying to do something in the playoffs.

(It was Eyre warming.)


Quick and painful

Can we please stop the crap about the '64 Phils or the '07 Mets? The Phils still have a 5 game lead and the Braves don't control their own destiny. Man.

this team sucks right now. If we can't find someone to close were not making it past the first round.

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