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Thursday, September 17, 2009

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"MG: So if Romero comes back and puts up numbers matching his season numbers so far (15 IP, 11 H, 13 BB, 12 K, 1.53 WHIP, .975 OPS vs. LH) he's a lock to be on post-season roster?

Intersting."

Not really. Romero is a veteran who has delivered for Cholly the past two seasons down the stretch. That will triumph whatever missed results Romero gives the Phils in 3-4 games over the next 2 weeks in Cholly's decision-making.

If Romero needs to be shutdown again, then all bets are off but if he is healthy enough to pitch, Cholly will put him on the offseason roster if he has been mediocre this year and hasn't pitched much at all down the stretch.

Possible rotation for the next week...


Tonight vs. Nats- Hamels

Friday at Braves- Happ
Saturday at Braves- Martinez
Sunday at Braves- Lee

Tuesday at Marlins (GAME 1)- Moyer
Tuesday at Marlins (GAME 2)- Hamels
Wednesday at Marlins- Blanton (give him an extra day)

Thursday at Marlins- Happ (an extra day)


Hopefully by next weekend, things are wrapped up and we can start preparing the staff and bench, for the post-season.

From the previous thread:

Not to belabor the point, but the Phils' record against the Cardinals the last 4 seasons is:

2006, 3-3
2007, 6-3
2008, 5-4
2009, 4-1


That said, the playoffs are a crapshoot, and anything can happen.

Pedro for closer. Happ to the rotation. Book it.

I'm surprised anyone would think that Romero's performance would be a deciding factor on whether he makes the post-season roster. The only question will be his health. If Romero returns to this team and demonstrates he's healthy, he will be on this roster.

Romero dominated lefties the last two seasons including an OPS against of 346 last season. That's not a typo.

Romero is on the roster if he's healthy whether he has a 1.5 WHIP over the next two weeks or not.

awh: I agree w/ you. Of the Phils' apparent potential postseason opponents (Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies, Giants), I'm least intimidated by StL. The Phils have matched up very well against them the past few years, offensively in particular.

From this morning's Today Show:

Donning her pink Phillies hat and occasionally sucking her thumb, Emily snuggled up to her dad and told Matt Laurer what really brings her to the games:
“Raul Ibanez,” she said.

sweet.

awh/GTD - These aren't the Cards from last year or the year before that. Carpenter is healthy and throwing well. Holliday continues to be on fire protecting Pujols. Lugo, Glaus, DeRosa, Rasmus, etc. all provide lots of depth at all positions and good offense on the bench.

I do not understand the Pedro for closer comments at all.

Bob: At which point, BLers revolted and said, "Emily, wait until the year 2011 until you crown him your favorite player!"

"what really brings her to the games:
“Raul Ibanez,” she said.

The torch has been passed to a new left fielder- Sorry, Pat

Apparently Emily is unaware of Raul's "reversion to career norms" ... oooOOOOOOooo!!! :-o

I'm surprised Clout didn't show up at the Today show (a la Kanye West) and reply to Emily, "Interesting."

"I do not understand the Pedro for closer comments at all."

Simple. Cholly is a huge fan a radical experiments, especially at playoff time.

flipper - why do you think Pedro would have more success pitching his first inning as closer than he does pitching his first inning as a starter. He's Eatonian in his first innings.

clout - i still think Lidge will be the answer in the 9th come playoff time. Not sure why.

Jack - My comment about Moyer and Walker had less to do with who's earned the right than with what i see happening. I just don't see Moyer being left off the roster. But this Phils team cut Jenkins and Eaton, so who knows.

awh: Re: Pujols, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio et al from last thread. What makes Pujols so amazing is that combination of high BB/low K slugger is far more rare today than it was in the 1940s and 1950s.

Kutztown: CLASSIC! Followed immediately by BAP, AWH and Jack trying to teach little Emily that it doesn't matter about this year because at some point he is certain to revert back to career norms. Also, teaching her the complex calculus theory as to the reason Burrell is actually better even though he had a horrendous year.

CJ: "Romero dominated lefties the last two seasons including an OPS against of 346 last season. That's not a typo.
Romero is on the roster if he's healthy whether he has a 1.5 WHIP over the next two weeks or not."

If that's your standard, then Lidge is your post-season closer. Makes it easy.

I still favor the Phils over any of the NL teams out there, bullpen situation and all, but I certainly do not think of the Cards as a nonthreat.

They've got a CY Young race inside their own rotation with Wainwright and Carpenter, the best hitter the big leagues - by a pretty large margin - above average protection for him in Ludwick and Holliday, and before recently, a extremely effective closer.

Franklin has had a few rough patches lately, but I would still notch their closing situation ahead of Philly's.

We rocked Wainwright earlier this year and have had decent success vs Carpenter before, but haven't faced him since 2006. I would put more crediblity to their season totals than I would with our team's past history against them.

The Phillies didn't face Carpenter or Wainright this year (although Pinero shut them down something fierce). So the head to head record is skewed for contributing to any october predictions.

So if you're wary of the Giants you should be more scared of the Cardinals cause they actually have talent in their lineup to boot.

mvp: that comment got a laugh out of me!

I'm looking forward Braves and FLA series, because this past week of going against these awful team has been perhaps the least interesting week of the baseball season.

You let Pedro close if it's the 12th inning of game 7 and everyone else has been used.

clout: I don't remember Lidge having that kind of success over the last two seasons. So if that's my standard, I suppose Lidge doesn't have the job.

On a different topic, Rich Harden is a free agent and the Cubs will probably pass... On the theory that there's never enough SP, should the Phils give up the Type A picks and sign him?

I think you can still look at Romero's 2008 numbers because he's pitched a whopping 15IP so far in 2009. Whereas Lidge has had the entire 2009 season to improve, and has failed.

If Romero shows he is healthy, I believe you can still count on him as postseason addition, especially considering the lack of LHP in the pen. Romero's health a big if right now tho.

thephaithful: "I would put more crediblity to their season totals than I would with our team's past history against them."

That pretty much sums up our differing viewpoints.

PHIinBK: The Phils faced Wainwright on 5 May & totaled 9 H & 7 ER against him in 6 In.

I'm not suggesting the Cardinals are pushovers, I'm merely pointing out that the Phillies have had a good deal of success against them the past few years. I'd also take the Phils' chances to score runs at Busch over their chances to score runs in, say, SF any day of the week.

PHIinBK - May 5th, 2009

Wainwright - 6IP 7ER 9H, Werth and Vic combined for all 7 RBIs against him. Vic solo shot and a 2run double while Werth had a sac fly and 3 run bomb.

Can you make a good case as to why Rich Harden would be a good buy? Esp. giving up a 1st round pick for the second straight year?

Gtown - I will agree with you there. Phils love that flight to ol saint louie for some reason. Homecoming for Howard and Werth surely helps as they both have hit historically well there.

Since 2007, Phils are average 6.35 Runs per game (89 runs in 14 games) at Busch Stadium.

Danger Lad and Rob: Not to get ahead of ourselves and talk 2010 rotation. But aren't we to think that the rotation is already formed. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer? With room to bring up Drabek towards July of next year if needed.

CJ: Romero was more successful last season than Lidge?

Are you high?

Kendrick is breaking thru in 2010 and beyond!

thephaithful: SO, regardless of how badly Romero pitches if he returns, he should be on the post-season roster because he hasn't been as terrible in as many inning as Lidge has.

Yeah, that makes sense.

thephaithful: If you read this board you know that Kendrick cannot possibly be successful at the major league level.

clout: Did I say Lidge was more successful than Romero last season? I wrote, "Romero dominated lefties the last two seasons including an OPS against of 346 last season."

Brad Lidge was far from dominate in 2007 while being remarkably dominate in 2008. Since you've decided that my words are the standard by which this decision is made, then I'll simply point out that my standard is "the last two seasons."

Romero is certainly one of our 2 or 3 best relievers when he's healthy & able to keep his wildness in check. But I'm with clout on this one. We don't know about Romero's health &, after all this time off, we have no idea if he can keep his wildness in check. He certainly wasn't able to do so earlier in the season, after returning from a long break. With at least 2 other lefty relievers (Moyer & Happ), & potentially 3 (depending on Eyre's status), I want to see Romero pitch decently before I add him to the post-season roster. I don't agree that he's any sort of lock to make it. In fact, given our already left-handed heavy bullpen, I think the odds are slightly against Romero being included. If it comes down to Eyre & Romero, you've got to go with Eyre, who has had the far better season.

clout - Romero serves a purpose on this team: he can get lefties out. If he even shows a hint of that in the next two weeks, he'll make the first round playoff roster. You know this.

Im surprised you are taking so muck stock into Romero's 15IP this year.

He came back from a long suspension, did not pitch well, and quickly landed on the 15 day DL - for the last 60 Days.

I believe his first 15IP were barely an indicator of his skill level this season.

MVP- that was sort of my point to Rob

clout: Can you please stop your silly "man-crush" on Kendrick. Are you a regular at Gigi's on 3rd and Market, just so you can hopefully catch a glimpse of him?

I hope Kendrick does well. His future wife annoys me though.

I agree that Eyre should get the nod over Romero. But at this point, who knows if either will be an option.

I think Romero has earned the benefit of the doubt over the course of the last two years if he can prove he is healthy. And I am a firm believer that Moyer serve no purpose in the postseason bullpen, so that eliminates on lefty out of "my" pen.

bap: So if both Romero and Eyre prove themselves healthy and only one can make the roster, you believe they'll take Eyre? I think the Phils go the other way. I guess we'll see if either prove healthy enough.

Sophist:

To be serious, I don't think there's much of any chance that UC will use Pedro as a closer - but I think it could work.

I've been very impressed with his pitching for the Phils - and he seems to me to have the mentality of a closer.

As for his first inning stats. One possibility is that it is a sample size issue. He's the same pitcher in the first inning as the rest, only he's just had bad results in the first innings - in the same way that any pitcher has bad results sometimes - and the first inning aspect is coincidence.

Another possibility is that he really does pitch differently in the first innings of games - meaning that he takes a different approach. Maybe he's pacing himself to leave him with more gas in the tank later in the games. Maybe he's trying to establish certain pitchers because he has an eye towards later in the game. Maybe he's trying to establish himself with the ump, to get calls later in the game. But if he were closing - he'd have no need to do any of those things since they're predicated on a strategy focused on later in the game.

The final possibility is that something physical changes in how he pitchers after the first inning - something out of his control. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Why would pitching in inning in game action affect his physical abilities differently than warming up before the game or warming up before being brought in as a closer? I suppose it's possible - just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

speaking of mancrush's, MVP: Your boy is 14 RBI short of 100...that crow in the oven is getting close to being ready.

Why does Romero earn the benefit of the doubt but not Moyer? He has done quite well out of the pen, but we have no idea what Romero will do.

Ben Francisco gets the start in LF tonight.

king myno: That's my whole point. Please recall my original post when MG said Romero will be on the post-season roster no matter what: I asked whether he would be there even if he continued to pitch as he has with lefties tuning him up for a .975 OPS.

CJ and MG say yes. BAP says no. What do you say?

Go BlueClaws!!!

It's quite interesting that on this board the word "interesting" means "you're a complete moron."

And something else that everyone seems to have missed. Should the Phils face the Cardinals in the league championship series, their best pitcher against the Cards is probably Moyer, who has flat out dominated that team over the last few seasons. He didn't get to pitch against them this year, but before that, he dominated them much like the dominates the Fish. So, no he shouldn't be on the roster for the first playoff series. But if the next opponent is the Cardinals, how could he be left out of the rotation?

thephaithful: Yea I know. But even if Raul is short. He still had an above average year in the HR column, which I predicted. And doing a heck of a lot better than "The Babe" down in tampa. I believe he is 4-39 in his last 13 games. That is .103. AWFUL.

So no matter what happens with Raul. I will eat that crow with a smile, because at least we don't have that dog and thief Burrell here stealing the Phillies money with a .228 BA, 14 HR and 62 RBI's. Also, he can't field anymore, which he proved here.

What gives with BenFran in LF? Raul is just starting to get his eye & timing back. Is the Gnats pitcher a Lefty? If so, why not give one of Howard/Utley the night off instead?

I'm hoping Moyer isn't included in next yrs rotation. Drabek/Kendrick can be the guy in case of injury OR in September if need be.. I just thought Harden was an improvement on Jamie/ Pedro.. I did notice that he's a flyball pitcher, but so are ALL starters here except Kendrick.

mvp - you see the irony in your attempt to belittle clout's alleged obsession, yeah?

flipper - yeah, i don't know the reason. Could easily be a sample size issue. He'll have a few more starts to iron it out perhaps. For now, considering his age and his pitch quality in first innings (velocity, command and movement), I'd bet it's not a coincidence. Just an fairly uneducated opinion.

If Eyre is out, Romero will be on the roster if he is able to pitch. No matter what he does the next couple weeks. If Eyre is able to pitch, then it makes it a different story. We'll see how it plays out, but I would be shocked if neither Eyre or Romero are on the roster.

Romero has been bad this year, but if there's no Eyre, Charlie will have no choice but to bring along Romero and take his chances. Just the way he works. He's gonna go with the guy who did it for him last year over Moyer/Happ as a late inning situational lefty.

What's really interesting is how much is up in the air. We have no idea who will be healthy, let alone effective. And we've only got two and a half weeks to figure it out. Kind of scary.

Smoky: I know! Raul needs to play everyday so he reaches my 100 RBI prediction!

MVP, I guess you have an issue with PtB, huh? Seems a bit personal, no? Did he steal your girlfriend?

"mvp - you see the irony in your attempt to belittle clout's alleged obsession, yeah?"

The big difference being Ibanez has actually be productive for his career, while kendrick is sporting a career ERA of 4.73.

Smoky--- Nats pitcher is a lefty.. although a terrible one

aksmith: i have never heard that before but you are right. Career .668 OPS against the Cards in 11 starts, 5-1 2.34 ERA.

Pedro told Charlie that he couldn't believe how good his arm felt, both the day after throwing 130 pitches, and during the mid-term bullpen session. That's good news.

Old Phan: Actually I don't have a personal issue with "The Babe". My EYES just told me after last year he wasn't worth the money and he was done. I am just taking solice in that my EYES were correct.

Also, I just want to field the best possible lineup and obviously Ibanez > "The Babe"

Is Moyer especially good against certain Cardinals players? Saying he's been good against the Cards over the past years (esp. when he hasn't pitched against them this year) may not be saying much, unless there's something about those uniforms that brings out the best in him.

MVP - Sorry. Not what I was referring to. You can't call someone a stalker and in the same breath name-drop the bar where (I suppose, I have no idea) the players hang out. The one who looks overly obsessed, or at least insecure, is you.

sophist: It's not where all the players hang out. Kendrick's fiance owns the place.

I think the main point, Rob, is that (w/ Moyer's money next season) there's no room in the budget for an upgrade over the current cupboards contents for the rotation...

You say career 4.73 ERA like its a horrible thing. Kid had over 20 wins before he turned 24.

He was thrust into the majors as an emergency plan, and pitched well enough to earn a spot on a playoff team. He then started to struggle with location and lacked a third pitch to help give him a larger margin for error.

By Spring 2010 he will have had enough time to develop a changeup and improve his command. I don't like comparing him to Happ, but to use him as an example, he stuck in the minors until he was 26 before putting it all together and making an impact in the bigs. KK has already made a positive impact, and now has the valuable experience of getting knocked around. My bet is on Kendrick to use that experience and proper seasoning in the minors to establish himself as a major league pitcher once again.

Sophist: Also, everyone in Philadelphia realizes that point. But being that most the posters here don't actually live in Philadelphia than I shouldn't have said the name because most people obviously don't get the joke.

thephaithful: Wonderful but I won't be holding my breath.

Jack: "We have no idea who will be healthy, let alone effective. And we've only got two and a half weeks to figure it out. Kind of scary."

Exactly right.

MVP - That doesn't belie my point.

Clout: Do you think Kendrick will be successful?

clout - Didn't say I thought Romero had pitched that well this year. He generally had control issues all year although he was a bit better before he went on the DL in July.

If Lidge is on the postseason roster (who is having one of the worst seasons by a reliever in the last 25 years), then I doubt then Romero gets let off either.

Cholly has shown time and time again in the bullpen that he goes with experience or what is necessarily what might be a better overall option. Let's rattle off the names over the years . . Rhodes, Gordon, White, Mesa, Alfonseca and that is just a couple of guys.

re: Kendrick girl / GiGi's owner:

Pics? Links?

re: Moyer vs Cards

Vs Pujols: .200/.273/.200 in 11 PA
vs Lucwick: .083/.154/.083 in 13 PA
vs Holliday: .000/.143/.000 in 7 PA

That AMAZES me!! All power righties, all worthless vs Moyer!

Clout does not answer direct questions with direct answers, Jack...

He prefers to make it 'interesting...'

Sophist: So I am a stalker because everyone in the 18-40 age bracket that lives in Philadelphia or surrounding suberbs knows that Kendrick's fiancee owns the bar and I made a joke that Clout is a regular there just to try and see Kendrick when he goes there.

Fine, I am stalker then. I love the comedy on this site.

Jack: He already has been successful. I don't rule out future success. He is what he is: A back-end starter/middle reliever who needs to develop an out pitch vs. lefties.

thephaithful never watched survivor?

and what is the irony that two phillie's pitchers will be married to two different survivor contestants from different broadcast seasons? weird...

mvptommy: Your EYES told you that Burrell would suffer a neck injury that would hamper his swing all season long? Some team needs to hire you as trainer!

Wow...I stand corrected.

danger: The same irony that 2 Eagles players that married playboy playmates were almost teammates.

Clout: Do you think he will develop an out pitch against lefties, and thus be successful? I'm asking you to make a prediction here.

clout: Ohhh, ok so the injury did it. Gotcha. So it is acceptable for Burrell to hit .228 this season due to a neck injury. BUT unacceptable for Ibanez to have a 20 game slump due to his groin. BRILLIANT!

His changeup seemed mildly improved, Jack...

danger lad: Really? Try me.

Jack: You have declared it is not possible for Kendrick to be successful. I say he's already been successful and could well be successful in the future, but if he doesn't develop a pitch vs. LH then most he can be is a middle reliever.

I got one for you Clout. On a subject that you were unwilling to take a gander at a couple of weeks ago. Do you now think you've seen enough of Pedro this year to feel as if he has more upside potential than Moyer? Do you believe that he will have enough to be a difference maker for the Phillies in the post season?

Clout-

You already proved me wrong, mate. No bubbles, no troubles. Meant no offense.

MVP, There is no question that Burrell hasn't been healthy this season. You're issue with PtB really does sound personal. I'll be the first to admit that I wanted the Phils to sign PtB, but that doesn't mean I'm not happy with what Raul has brought to the team.

Clout: For about the 700th time, so please don't distort my position again, I think it's certainly possible that Kendrick could be successful, but I am betting against it. I don't think a guy with his career numbers and repertoire will suddenly develop a new pitch and all of a sudden become successful.

That's like asking if a team can come back from 7 games down with 17 to play. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Clout, follow up questions. When you were going at Pedro lovers pretty hard three weeks ago, was it mostly out of defense for Moyer (and those who claimed he was washed up), or to make a point against premature judgement on Pedro while the jury was out? Or both, or neither?

I'm guessing Clout has gone home from work at 5:00, and won't be responding to the inquiries.

David Murphy interrupted Bottalico on DSN mid-sentence and said it wasn't necessary for Lee to complete that game the other night.

Murphy asks why doesn't Cholly try to keep Lee a bit fresher and give some other guys in the bullpen so much needed work including Condrey and Myers up in a game 5-0?

The 'Ask Clout' segment is already over?

Who cares what David Murphy thinks? I always crack a smile when those beat writers are looked at as strategical experts...

At least a guy like Les Bowen knows he doesn't know anything about his beat.

Was David Murphy ever a crappy reliever? No?

Then he knows nothing about this. He shouldn't express an opinion on it.

That's a bit extreme, Jack, don't ya think. Sort of misrepresents my point. In no way did I say that Ricky Bo (indeed a crappy former reliever) had any more important or expert an opinion.

I just think DNL and WIP allows good newspapermen/writers to turn into analytical experts is all.

Kendrick's fiancee owns a bar? He has risen in my estimation. He's still only a AAA pitcher in my mind.

Que? He is a guest on a show that talks about sports. What exactly the hell is he supposed to talk about for 30 minutes?

Just saying.

SmokyJoe: The people who declared Pedro would be great before he threw a single pitch at the major league level this year turned out to be right. I was skeptical and wanted to see it before believing it.

As for "upside potential" that's not a phrase I've ever seen used with a 38-year-old pitcher. The guy is a Hall of Famer. We should ride whatever he's got left until it's gone, where that's 5 games or 50 games.

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