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Monday, August 17, 2009

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If you don't want to go to PP

R7 – Brody Colvin, RHP (St Thomas Moore HS, LA) – Now we’re talking. Colvin has a lightning fast arm and a very projectable frame. He’s already got present low 90’s heat and could sit in the 93-95 range when he’s done maturing physically. He’s also got a sharp curve and the apparent aptitude to develop a changeup as well. His delivery needs a few tweaks, but he’s kind of similar in his total package to what Kyle Drabek was out of high school. Colvin is a major signability pick, as he has a very strong commitment to LSU. If the Phillies are buying him out of that, its likely going to take 7 figures. BA had him ranked 3rd in Louisiana and 43rd overall.

What?!?!?!

Can not compute...

Phils draft and sign above slot...

Does... not... fit... narrative...

We can now pretend as though we actually HAD a 1st round pick. We sorta spent like we did, anyway.

They did it last year too...they've apparently turned over a new leaf on the draft.

Congratulations, JW!!!

It looks like the first place the Colvin "signing" was reported was here on BL.

I wonder if Andy Martino reads BL, as his first mention on his blog was at 6:13 PM?

BedBeard first posted the original link to the Colvin story at 4:23 PM. It's the first reference to it I have been able to find anywhere.


Berr*Leaguer: Where intrepid Phillies fans break stories, scoop the media and beat each others brains out!!!

NEPP, when you think about it it makes perfect sense.

If you're going to "waste" money signing players, throw a few extra $million at your draft picks instead of a marginal free agent who may not produce to his contract.

The draft picks could have way more "upside".

AAMOF, I'm sure someone in the Phils FO did a "return on investment" analysis contrasting signing free agents vs. signing draft picks.

Dave Montgomery is, after all, a Wharton man.

Oh, not to belabor the point, but Matt Diaz had this to say about a former Phils draftpick named J.A. Happ:


"He threw well tonight, and he's got that late life on his fastball that makes his fastball look very good," Diaz said. "When you cheat on his fastball, it makes his offspeed pitches look very good."

Yippee. And 900K is a better deal than I thought they'd get. If they get Susac or Stewart this will be their second very good draft in a row.

It doesn't sound like they're getting either Susac or Stewart at this point. Stewart MIGHT still sign but I doubt it.

Still, Colvin makes this an okay draft. Basically it went from mediocre to okay with his signing (assuming its confirmed).

Colvin replaces Knapp in our system, which is huge.

Great news about Colvin. Can he close? When can he report to the team so we can DL Lidge?

AWH: Ross Ohlendorf proved (by analysis, not by example) the advisability of busting slot his senior year of college:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=4230662

Tommy "Not as good as Bastardo" Hanson moved to 8-2, 3.05, fanning 7, walking none in 6 IP vs. the D'backs tonight.

Agree with NEPP about Colvin being the Knapp replacement, which had to be what Rube was thinking too when he made the Lee deal. Now have to hope he stays healthy, always the biggest IF with HS pitchers.

D'backs = Murderers' Row.

After all the debate about the Blue Jays and Mac's assertion that the Blue Jays must absolutely cut payroll this was an interesting note on MLB Trade Rumors

The Jays have cut costs this month by trading away Alex Rios and Scott Rolen. Now, Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail hears that ownership may allow for more spending, but only if Paul Beeston stays on as team president and CEO. (Hat Tip: Drunk Jays Fans) The club would then allow Beeston to hire a veteran baseball person to continue grooming Blue Jays assistant GM Alex Anthopoulos.

Its starting to look like Colvin is it...either way, he was the best of the 3 "hard sign" guys though likely the one with the most risk as a HS pitcher.

Let's hope he's next year's Jason Knapp.

Clout, You continue to greatly exaggerate the collective opinion of Beerleaguers on both Bastardo & Hanson.

Also, you have no problem drawing conclusions about the supreme capability of an Atlanta pitcher with a total of 79 2/3 innings pitched, but still claim the jury is out on Happ, who now has twice as many innings pitched in his career than Hanson. They both have relatively the same K/BB (2 to 1), and Happ has a lower WHIP. Interesting. At what point are you capable of using your own brain to draw your own conclusions instead of just reporting what you read on other websites?

Here are the career comps:
Player-W ▲ L ▲ ERA ▲ G ▲ GS ▲ CG ▲ SHO ▲ SV ▲ SVO ▲ IP ▲ H ▲ R ▲ ER ▲ HR ▲ HB ▲ BB ▲ SO ▲ AVG ▲ WHIP ▲ GO/AO
Hanson-8 2 3.05 13 13 0 0 0 0 79.2 73 28 27 8 4 29 62 .244 1.28 0.82
Happ - 10 3 3.07 37 21 2 2 0 0 164.1 137 56 56 19 6 63 123 .228 1.22 0.73

Clout: So he should be known as Tommy "not better than Happ" Hanson from now on, is what you're saying?

So, what would you rather have?

1 year of Bruntlett at $800K

or

6 years of Colvin at $900K


This is why investing in the draft is worth it. Eaton's salary this year is probably triple our draft budget.

Hey, good for the Phillies for investing in young talent.

Beerleaguer: Where no grudge goes unheld.

So, to summarize my post, JA (not as good as Tommy Hanson) Happ has almost identical K/BB, WHIP, & ERA, while putting out those numbers over twice as many innings.

Doohickey - Do unto others as they have done to you.

Zolecki just said that we signed all of our top 10 draft picks. Does that include Susac and Stewart? Where were they drafted?

* of posts stating that Bastardo is better than Hanson, by poster:

clout: 53
everyone else: 0

Stewart & Susac were outside the top 10 rounds...14th round & 16th round respectively

So the Nats have less than three hours to sign Strasburg - I dont get the sense that it will happen. Man, that franchise needs to be blown up - how do you not sign your #1 pick 2 years in a row?

Umm...Scott Boras?


Boras is completely ridiculous and he is using Strasburg as a guinea pig to try and destroy the MLB Draft process. It should be an interesting battle when Strasburg doesnt sign and Boras then tries to circumvent next year's draft by making Strasburg a resident of a foreign country or has him play in Japan. Meanwhile, Strasburg goes a year without playing top competition and could very well blow out his arm instead of taking a huge payday (reportedly $12.5 million) before ever having thrown a pitch as a professional. Either way, it could very well end bad.

He'll suddenly be 22 next year and still will not have thrown a professional pitch...but hey, its all about Stephen's interests, right?

Nothing at all to do with Boras being a selfish ass out to make the most money he can.

Perhaps if more of his players were like Madson and told him to go F#*# himself when offered fair contracts, baseball would likely be a better sport because of it.

Speaking of Adam Eaton and his stolen jewelery; he should have plenty of rest having last pitched Aug 14th (giving up 2 ER). I guess it's only fitting that those 2 ER were to the Fish and ended up being the difference in the game.

NEPP, its not like the Stasburg signed with Boras after they drafted him. Mgmt new it would take a boatload of money to sign him - now they will wind up saving the $20M or so that it would have taken the deal to get done, AND avoid paying the millions they should have spent on the player they would have taken in his place. Disgusting.

The number being bandied about is starting at 17 mil for Strasburg with incentives that can take it up to over 20 million.

If Boras doesn't agree to that deal, he's insane. And so is the player.

My hope is that he doesn't sign, then the players get together soon to revamp the CBA and change the draft to one with official slots with fixed dollar amounts no matter how old the player or what country he comes from. Then Boras can just leave everyone alone. He will have killed the golden goose and every other agent will put out a contract on him.

Smoky Joe: To recap the Bastardo-Hanson thing. At some point in a thread a poster (don't remember who) said that Bastardo was a better prospect than Hanson and would have a better MLB career.

That is clearly a ridiculous statement on the former and the latter is probably unlikely, but in the air.

Trevor May seems like the next Jason Knapp to me. His numbers for the Blueclaws are insane. I've been looking for a scouting report on him, anyone have a recent one?

Truth-please climb out of Clout's ass.

I think the story actually was AWH(?) made a sarcastic remark about Bastardo being better than Hanson after Bastardo's major league debut (on the same day?) was better than Hanson's. It was said in jest And of course, Clout took it and ran.

Cosart, Colvin, and Pettibone look like a trio next year at Lakewood.

BedBeard, I never made a definitive statement either way. I merely compared their first starts to make a little sarcastic fun of Hanson and clout started pressing the issue.

Why? I dunno. I guess he had nothing better to do that day.

Either that or he really has no sense of humor.

Mrs. Conlin must have a great sense of humor to make up for it.

Truth: Actually, no one ever said either of those things. I remember the discussion quite distinctly and you are free to fact-check my memory by looking through the old threads.

What happened was that some poster -- I think AWH (now awh) -- merely posted Bastardo & Hanson's stats after their first 2 major league starts, pointing out that, so far, Bastardo's were actually better. clout then asked, "So you think Bastardo will have a better major league career than Hanson?" AWH responded by saying he had made no such claim, but was merely pointing out the two pitchers' current stats. clout the asked the question again. When others chimed in to point out that AWH had never made such an assertion, clout asked the same question of the others. At that point, several posters (with tongue unmistakably in cheek) wrote that, yes, Bastardo was clearly the better prospect. And that is how the myth got started that Beerleaguers believed Bastardo was a better prospect than Hanson.

Granted, there is no particular harm in this little myth. Exaggerating his opponent's position is just sort of clout's way of amusing himelf, just as my way of amusing myself is to be excessively negative and Andy's is to write fake dialogue. Still, when myth starts to morph into reality, it needs to be corrected. In reality, I'm fairly sure that not a single poster ever said (in a tone that could reasonably be understood as serious) that Bastardo would have a better career than Hanson.

Here's the link to the alleged "Bastardo is better than Hanson" thread. Scroll down to AWH's 1:42 p.m. post, which was the launching point for the subject. Then read the next 50 or so posts thereafter.

http://beerleaguer.typepad.com/beerleaguer/2009/06/postgame-phillies-split-series-with-7-2-win.html

So Strasburg signed and for $15.75 million. Sounds like a win-win for both sides.

...I mean $15.1 million.

BAP: I'm fairly certain the Bastardo discussion evolved from there, and someone else definitively said Bastardo was a better prospect. I don't remember where, or who (pretty sure it wasn't AWH) and I don't care enough to go back and look it up. Personally I don't think AWH said it entirely in jest though. Mostly, but not entirely.

BB: So telling someone-who clearly didn't know- about a prior discussion on the board is being, "up someone's ass?" You must be a joy to be around in your private life.

Oh, and now that it'smorning and my coffee is kicking in.......

bap, thanks for posting the link. I really didn't care to look it up myself.
that old yarn just wasn;t worth the effort to me.


The one disturbing thing about the whole prepubescent episode getting brought up again:

The ugly truth that "Truth" may be one of be BLrs who suffers from lack of reading comprehension skills.

What do you guys think about this Stasburg guy for Washington they're hyping up on ESPN. How soon will he be an impact? ..And how big of an impact could he possibly have for the Nats?? Hopefully he won't be a Phillie killer and will just end up killing the Mets, Marlins and Bravos!

AWH: I said someone after you continued the discussion but I don't remember who. I didn't attribute the definitive statement of Bastardo being a better prospect than Hanson to you.

I also said I'm mostly sure you were kidding about the statement.

So basically I said, "Someone other than AWH said it to be a definite, and he was pretty much kidding" and you then slam me for not having reading skills.

Do you see the irony in that statement from you?

Jack: That's exactly what I'm saying!

SmokyJoe: Please explain to me what conclusions I've made about Hanson or not made about Happ.

It's good to see them restocking the system with quality players.

While we all await Drabek, and look hopefully at people like Stutes, we also might note that the following all look very good and are under 20:
Jonathan Pettibone, Julio Rodriguez, Jared Cosart, Trevor May, Matthew Way, and, now, Brody Colvin.

Are we on our way to being a "pitching team?"

Actually, Truth, if you read through the thread, clout did his best leviculus tomas preur imitation and in silly fashion kept challenging anyone and everyone to say Bastardo was a better prospect or would have a better career than Hanson.

CJ, in what was obviously a tongue-in-cheek post (as bap pointed out) happily obliged him.

No one - no one ever seriously took the position that Bastardo was "better than" "has more upside"....whatever.

Never happened.

Andy: Too early to tell. But going on the fact that in the past 25 years or so we only have had only one pitching prospect actually do anything impressive( Cole Hamels). I am not counting my eggs before they hatch.

The more I read about Colvin the more I like. Seems like he has good stuff and a solid delivery which can be a major hurdle for young pitchers adjusting to the major leagues.

Andy: Rube did say in the off-season that he was going to focus on pitching so I hope you are right that we are looking at a movement towards that which extends from the big team all the way down to draft strategy. We know from history that prospects can be a crapshoot but the more you have the better the chance of finding some good ones.

AWH: So your claim is you were just baiting someone to say something by stating something intentionally ridiculous? That's the definition of trolling. Not saying you're a troll necessarily but seems like what you were doing in this instance then.

And again- someone brought it up in a later thread. I remember reading it, but no I don't care enough about it to go reading through 2 month old threads to find it.

Brohamel, Strasburg obviously has "stuff".

Who knows how that will translate?

Keep this in mind, despite all the hype:

Even though he has 'stuff' and had great results, Stephen Strasburg did not even play in the best college baseball league on the West coast.

Had he played for a summer in a league like the Cape Cod League where he would have faced better competition of some of the best college players in the country (I see a lot of Cape League games - competition level is probably +/- A ball), I think you could project him better.

From what I've read he has hit 103 MPH on the radar gun, has a very good breaking ball, and has told some members of the media that he "has a changeup".

The same member of the media, who saw him pitch at the college all star game, described his changeup as "a HR in disguise" if he tries to throw it to MLB hitters.

In short, it's said he has the talent to be a #1 starter, though based on the competition he's faced in college, it's probably premature to pencil him in at the top of the Nats' rotation.

Good for the Phils on getting this done. Stewart would have been a nice piece to lock up too, although that ship probably sailed once the Hudson and now Colvin money was spent.

It's a cliche, but you absolutely cannot have enough arms in your system, especially if you could use a piece like Cliff Lee on your ML roster.

Truth, read what I wrote.

It's very straightforward, simple, and needs no further explanation.

I stand by it.

Oh, and Brohamel, to address your question as to whether he'll be a Phillies killer - who knows?

He is RH, though in the case of Tim Redding that didn't seem to make much difference.

It will be fun to find out.

***From what I've read he has hit 103 MPH on the radar gun***

He sits 95-98 typically. But yes, he can hit triple digits when need be.

How that translates from PAC 10 baseball to MLB baseball should be interesting. I think he'll struggle mightily for a couple years like every other "can't miss" pitching prospect.

Hopefully he ends up better than Brien Taylor.

Being a father of an LSU grad and have two other children in LSU as upcoming Juniors and Seniors, and a rabid Phillies fan, I have a unique rooting interest on the Colvin signing. That said, the Phillies win out in my heart as I've been a Phillies fan for a long time and for LSU...not so long, so I'm happy that Rube signed Colvin. I hope he can become a big success for us. Baseball is a big deal in Louisiana, so Colvin should be good for us.

I'd think the troll is the one who keeps posting updates on Hanson along with sarcastic remarks about how BLers think Bastardo is better.

To answer JBird's post earlier, Trevor May isn't in the same mold as a Knapp or (hopefully) Colvin. Those guys are mid 90's power pitchers with 12-6 curveballs. May is putting up some great numbers right now (though his last outing wasn't great). He relies on changing speeds with a fastball that might touch 90 once and awhile, but I believe he's in the upper 80s most of the time.

I'm not saying May can't be effective, but I think some of the talk of Colvin replacing Knapp in the system is due to their pitching style, as well as their ceiling.

For more on prospects, I recommend Phuture Phillies. Prospects can definitely get a bit overhyped there, but it's the best site for Phillies minor league info.

I'm pretty certain that Colvin is a better prospect than Tommy Hanson.

I also think it's fair to say that Happ is clearly a better ML pitcher than Hanson will ever be.

Finally, I think we can all agree that the jury is still out on whether Hanson is, in fact, a better prospect than Bastardo. We shouldn't jump to any conclusions.

JimJJJ-Are you confusing Trevor May with Matt Way? From all I've heard and read, Way, a 4 year college player, tops off at 90MPH.

The Phillies signed 26 of their first 28 draft picks. They did not sign Stewart or Susac. 13 of their last 21 picks also went unsigned. The full list can be found by clicking here.

tommy - My point was of the "not all eggs in one basket" vein. I cannot remember a time when the Phils had this many prospect quality pitchers under the age of 20. We always used to hear about, like, one 23 year old doing well in AAA ("This guy is the future."). Someone like Tyler Green.

I'd almost given up hope of anyone answering my question. I typed "May" into their search function over at Phuture Phillies yesterday and it didn't do anything other than reload the main page.

May's last start was 6k's and 1 ER in 5 innings. . . and he's got 72k's in 57 1/3 innings.

BB: To be honest- I don't think one is any better than the other.


CJ: Thanks for the list. Good job by the Phillies to get that many under contract. They had a ton of additional revenue last year- and the past few in general- and I'm glad they are spending some of it. I think investing in the draft, and your future, is a better allocation of resources than giving some marginal major leaguer a big contract. A majority of prospects don't turn out but if you are signing 25+ per year the chances of getting some finds increases greatly.

That to me is a good way to keep winning in the future.

re Tommy Hansen: All I know is if he was a Phillie, we'd say he is one of the best prospects we ever had. I watched most of his outing yesterday and he throws a real heavy ball. I know the D-backs aren't very good, but he was starting them off with great breaking pitches and then fooling them with a 94 mph heater on the black. Yes, his numbers are comparible to Happ this year, but I think in the long run he projects more as a number 1 or 2 starter, where Happ projects as a 3 or 4. Don't get me wrong, if Happ ends up as a quality 3 or 4 starter, I'd be happy. But sometimes our bias is a little exagerated on here. If Hansen and Happ are both in the Phillies rotation, there is no doubt we'd be more excited about Hansen.

Good to see the Phils sign this kid -- it's hard to believe we have a first-class franchise in Philly.

Regarding this Phils being a pitching team, if the rotation by midseason 2010 is Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Drabek, I'd say we're there.

I can't believe no one responded to mvptommy's statement that "in the past 25 years or so [the Phillies have only had] one pitching prospect actually do anything impressive( Cole Hamels)."

This is the very strange statement from a poster with a history of strange statements. I'm fascinated.

Tommy, are you a casual fan who has never seen Brett Myers or Ryan Madson or J.A. Happ or Randy Wolf pitch? I don't think so, because even my wife has a vague recall of Brett Myers pitching down the stretch last year.

Which leads me to the conclusion that maybe your definition of "impressive" is a tad high. In order to do "anything impressive," does a pitcher have to be World Series MVP?

NEPP, not to nitpick, but.....Strasburg did NOT play in the PAC 10, hence my comment that he "did not even play in the best college baseball league on the West coast."

SDSU is in the Mountain West Conference:

SDSU, New Mexico, TCU, BYU, UNLV, Utah, Air Force.

Their schedule is here:

http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/sched/sdsu-m-basebl-sched.html


It's not exactly a smorgasborg of NCAA baseball powerhouses.

I agree with Bed Beard. I could care less if somebody thinks Bastardo is a better prospect than Hanson or vice versa. I don't get all worked up over prospect projections, because it cannot be proven who is correct. Baseball history is full of "can't miss" prospects that never did anything noteworthy. I can't believe that commentors are getting on each other's case just because of someone's opinion. Let people state their case and be done with it.

Yo, new thread.

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