Poll: What should we expect from Pedro Martinez?

The Phillies have made accommodations for the three-time Cy Young winner by bumping Jamie Moyer to the bullpen. Will it work?

Somewhere, a legion of Mets fans is taking bets on how long it will take for Pedro Martinez to break down. One start? Two? The entire situation is debatable at best, but if the Phils were going to try this – an inevitability since the moment Pedro put ink to paper – now is the time to do it. I said all along the Phils can afford to experiment with one of their rotation slots. There's time to decide whether Pedro can help, with eyes on October. Actually, if you want to get technical, there's enough time for the Pedro experiment to fail and add even more pitching via waivers before the Sept. 1 deadline. That said, I’m still uncertain whether Moyer’s performance this season warranted this switch. Moyer at least kept them in ballgames most of the time. Here, they’re swapping a 79 ERA+ with a guy who had a 75 ERA+ last season and hasn't pitched in the majors since Sept. 25.

In the spirit of objectivity, setting this poll on a nice, even axis, I give Pedro a 50/50 shot of being better than Moyer. It's hard to imagine Pedro lasting a full seven innings. In 20 starts last season, going 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA, he lasted seven innings just twice. But at the same time, it's hard to picture Pedro surrendering 11 hits in five-plus innings, the way Moyer did on Sunday.

Meanwhile, I don't see Moyer's new role as anything more than a backup plan for Pedro. He's not going to be used in any difference-making way out of the pen. The Phils have two double-header dates in September and there's a good chance Moyer will reemerge for those. Even still, the Phils appear to be bending over backwards to some degree, just to accommodate Pedro.

Comments

[Benny Profane]

I think Pedro will be better than Moyer, so it makes me happy that they made this tough decision, especially now that the Marlins and Braves are closing in.

However, I think ultimately he ends up in the bullpen in October, and it would be nice to give him ample time to acclimate to the role.

So ideally, Pedro in the rotation helps them increase the spread in the division, affording them to experiment with him in the bullpen once rosters expand.

[Dan]

I see no reason to think Pedro won't be better than Moyer. Don't know if we'll win more games, though. Over 10 or 11 starts, I don't think it will be enough of a difference to matter.

[TNA]

I don't know how people can 'expect MUCH better than Moyer'. Even Pedro isn't sure what to expect once he hits the mound on Wednesdsay. All I gotta say is that he better bring it for his debut because it's being picked up by ESPN for their Wed night showcase. Not that he isn't accustomed to the spotlight, I'd expect the added attention is going to lead to a high strikeout, a couple ERs, 5IP game.

[A-Train]

If EVERYONE knows Pedro won't go past 5 effective innings (at best) why don't the Phils plan on Jamie "starting" the same day as Pedro and "start" in the 6th inning? He will have his routine and his 4 days rest and it won't burn up the bullpen.

Just a thought.

[Dan]

Follow up: The last time Moyer's FIP was under 4.0 was 1999. This year, it's 5.40. Last year, in the "disaster year" for him, Pedro had an FIP of 5.18. In 5 starts in 07, 1.92.

If he's healthy, I can't see how he'll be worse than Moyer, and I fully expect him to be better. We'll see, though.

[Bob]

I view the Pedro option as pretty much a no-lose situation. Sadly, Moyer has been bad enough that the situation needs to be addressed - waiting for Jamie to "come around" is not really a valid option.

There could be some upside with Pedro. The guy knows how to pitch; a stretch run or post season games are not going to rattle him or cause him to crack. If there is something left in the tank, he could work out really well. I would LOVE to watch Mets fans implode if he beats them in a game down the road, and you never know, he just might.

If Pedro does not work out, well, then we go to other options, but w/o Pedro, that's what we would be doing now. Glad he's there to give the shot to.

[Unikruk]

There's no way I'd lay any kind of money on this bet, but it says here Pedro will be better than Old James.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm dubious. I'm just glad that the bullpen had a day off yesterday and I hope like hell that Happ can eat some innings tonight. I have a feeling that all hands may be on deck tomorrow.

[Willard Preacher]

That's not to say that we wouldn't need the 'pen if it was Moyer going tomorrow, too, however. I think you take that spot in the rotation and settle for a 5.00+ ERA and hope that the offense can put up some runs.

[TNA]

On another note, anybody see the Phils trading for Crawford in the off-season? Maybe throw in some pitchers and Werth? I like Werth's skills and athleticism, but I really don't like his mental game. It was telling when he said that he gets all of his positioning cues from Utley without any sort of understanding. Why isn't he in there with Utley studying hitter trends, etc.? The Phils are one of the best defensive teams in the bigs not simply because of their decent ability (they only have two above-avg defenders in Feliz and Rollins, and even they have lost some range this year) but mainly because of their extraordinary defensive positioning and the infield's familiarity with each other having played together for almost two seasons straight.
On the offensive side of the ledger, Werth just doesn't seem to put in too much effort in his batting approach. It's basically, be relatively patient until the count runs full, and then hack at anything close to the plate. And this is not to mention his lost art of hitting to right field. And then this UFC thing. Ridiculous. In the year where he and UC have constantly mentioned that it's a big year to prove his ability to play for a whole season without platooning, this is completely moronic.

I realize prospects and money don't grow on trees, but I'd much much rather see Crawford manning CF/RF at $10M than Werth at $7M.

[Unikruk]

Touching off what Bob said, if Martinez gets blown out two or three times but still beats the Mets, the whole experiment will have been a rousing success for me.

If the Mets manage to go to town on him, I hope he starts throwing his 89-mph heat up and in. Until he's ejected.

[Brad C]

Don't really see how this move can hurt the team. Number 1, it is the 5th starter, who will be rendered irrelevant either way come October. And, more importantly, Moyer was that bad that a move had to be made. Whether it was Pedro or someone else, there is no reason to expect Moyer to turn things around this far into the season. Not at his age.

I am glad the move was made, especially now the every 5th day baseball will be watchable, because Moyer is so slow when he pitches it is painful (and I don't mean his velocity).

[Tony D]

"be relatively patient until the count runs full, and then hack at anything close to the plate"

That is a pretty good approach to hitting!!! Werth is one of the most underrated players in the league. Good defense for the most part, good power, good OBP, and runs well. He's OPS+'ed 120 for the last 3 years (Crawford has never had an OPS+ of 120).

[kart racer]

I wanted it to happen just because I have always liked watching Pedro pitch.

[curt]

I just like the fact that a Cy Young wanted to come to Philadelphia, to pitch for the Phillies, bandbox and all. Never thought I'd see the day. Plus, it finally gives us visibility in the Dominican. Whether or not he is a marginal improvement as the #5 is a secondary story.

[bananagrabbers]

I think my general positivity about Pedro is that he has a short window in which to perform. I think he's going to give it his all, hit his marks on the radar, and generally put in a pretty good showing.

I think he'll perform decently, maybe a high-4 or low-5 ERA and con some team into signing him next year, where he'll revert to form.

In other words: I think he's a guy who can ramp it up for two months, and not for a season.

I also wonder if, given the pampering he's receiving from the Phils, he's being set-up to fail. If I had to pick between Moyer and Pedro in the pen, I'd want Pedro. He can't pitch back-to-back nights I imagine, but his stuff is a bit more electric and he could give you an inning every other night or so down the stretch. Maybe the Phils want to give him his shot, just like Park. If he performs well, we all win. If he doesn't, they've given him his chance and either let him go or move him to the pen.

[RSB]

Met fans have something to say? I guess there weren't enough rocks in the world to be crawled under.

[TNA]

Tony- Crawford's also a LHB, so it doesn't really make sense pragmatically to bring him to the Phillies. And you're right, Werth IS underrated. But the guy has so much more to offer if he just gets it together mentally.

[mikes77phillies]

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Pedro Martinez is an upgrade over Jaime Moyer. My concern with Pedro is whether he can pitch 2 games in a row without gettingg hurt. If he is healthy, Pedro is MUCH better than Jaime Moyer.

[blimey]

Pedro will be better than Moyer but will only be able to last 5 or 6 innings each start. The phils wont score in his starts-- the impact on the bullpen will be about the same.

[NEPP]

Pedro will strike out the side on 9 pitches, come out to pitch the 2nd and see his arm fall off during his warmup pitches. Moyer will come in and complete the combined no-hitter but lose 1-0 on an walk, error, wild pitch combination that scores a Chicago runner.

[rk]

I think we are all kidding oursleves about Pedro. I have had two suggestions on the pedro issue:
1. Use him as relief pitcher even a closer (we don't have one now). The rationale here is that he has completed games so he knows the pressure and its just an inning--he can get fired up for an inning.
2. Have him start and let Moyer take over if he gets bombed. In fact they can alternate and share the 5th spot. That is likely to work better than either alone.

[bananagrabbers]

Speaking of Mets fans: Saw a bizarre statement from Cerrone a few days ago on their blog. Something along the lines of: "I'd love to see Billy Wagner get a chance to win a ring this season."

Is that for real? Or some sort of backwards thinking, like how we would have loved for Adam Eaton to pursue a championship with some other team last year?

[mm]

ATrain: I think the only problem with the tandem starter idea your proposing is the reason moyer is being replaced is because in 4 innings of work, he's been giving up 7-10 hits. I'd honestly rather see Jamie used as a loogy.

[sneed]

TNA: Werth is a clown, but he's got talent. I think his potential and affordable deal make him a keeper. Plus we have two corner OF prospects on the way in. Crawford is a marginal upgrade, if at all.

Werth is a weird dude, a late bloomer, but a talented player nonetheless.

Also, what made you say we only have two above average defenders? Shane and Werth don't count this year?

[mikes77phillies]

"(Werth has) OPS+'ed 120 for the last 3 years (Crawford has never had an OPS+ of 120)."

Uh boy. So now Carl Crawford is'nt as good as Jason Werth. Good thing for Werth the extra 60 Bases a year that Crawford steals (and Fielding Bible wards) are'nt included in OPS+.

[clout]

mikes77 guarantees that Pedro will be better than Moyer.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

[mikes77phillies]

On TNA's OT point:

Would'nt sign Carl Crawford to replace Werth in the offseason because of Taylor and Brown coming soon.

If I were Ruben, I might consider not picking up Pedro Feliz's option, then try to sign Chone Figgins for 2-3 years. I would bat him lead-off and drop Jimmy Rollins down in the line-up.

3b Figgins S
2b Utley L
ss Rollins S
LF Ibanez L
1b Howard L
RF Werth R
CF Victorino S
C Ruiz R

[phanatic's bro]

Jason,

Do you think this move will put a spark in Moyer or do you think he doesnt have anything left in the tank to be an effective starter again?

[NEPP]

Figgins would be too pricey.

[SmokyJoe]

Someone like Jamie doesn't need a spark. If he's not performing well, it's not from a lack of effort or desire.

[mikes77phillies]

"Figgins would be too pricey."

Would he get more than Casey Blake? Thats about 7mil per for 3 years. Figgins is 32 and not a power hitter. Can't see him getting 10m from anybody. I can only see the White Sox bidding on him. If 7mil was the price, i would let Feliz(5 mil) walk.

[Unikruk]

Really? Shane in 7th? Why not bat him 9th?

[NEPP]

How good is Figgins (a speed only guy who is already losing a step) gonna be when he's 34 at $7 million per?

That's my concern.

[Mac Tonight]

"....the Phils appear to be bending over backwards to some degree, just to accommodate Pedro."

Give me a break.

If anything, the Phillies have bent over backwards making excuses for Jamie Moyer to continue to take up a roster spot, let alone a role in the starting rotation.

He has little more to this club in 2009 than Adam Eaton with an apparent ability to coach and a sentimental, hometown story. He is one of the most unreliable starting pitchers in the game and he is on a team with as many as seven viable options for a spot in the rotation.

"Bending over backwards" for Pedro? Please! This qualifies as the most blindly biased statement ever published in a Beerleaguer story.

[Tony D]

Not a fan of Rollins batting 3rd.

[wagner]

I'd have to rate Werths defense below average. He has all the tools but looks like the Bull out there sometimes....

[chicago phan]

well put Mac - pedro was signed to be a starting pitcher... in the majors. let's see what he can do. moyer deserves respect, but not blind loyalty.

[clout]

Mac Tonight: "he is on a team with as many as seven viable options for a spot in the rotation."

That is tremendous news. Please name the "viable" seven who could take the 5th spot in the rotation.

[Mac Tonight]

Pitchers who perform on a much higher level than Moyer:

1. Lee
2. Hamels
3. Happ
4. Blanton

Pitchers who perform at or around the same level as Moyer:

1. Lopez
2. Park
3. (Moyer)

Pitchers who, if the sh*t hit the fan, could realistically pitch in the major leagues and be expected to match or beat Moyer's 2009 ERA and WHIP:

1. Carpenter

For sake of argument, pitchers who, at various times during the season, have outperformed Moyer:

1. Myers
2. Bastardo

Pitchers who should be given a shot to outperform Jamie Moyer due to his advancing age, his reliance on a sympathetic strike zone and his unreliability:

1. anyone
2. future Hall Of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez.

Glad to be the bringer of good news clout. Now go back to pretending you know your a** from a hole in the ground. Thanks. :)

[Mac Tonight]

PS: nice job blatantly trying to twist my words. If you were semi-literate, you might see that I said we had as many as seven viable options for a spot in the rotation, not seven men who could be our #5.

[RSB]

I see it more as the Phillies bending over backwards to accomodate the signing that they made a few weeks ago. Trading for Lee in lieu of Happ for Halliday pretty much put the organization in an untenable spot; deferring to either Moyer or Martinez in this situation requires delicate, damage-control maneuvering, the sort of dilemma whose handling is bound to be keenly observed and judged by other organizations. (Recall, for instance, the way the Braves mishandled the departures of Smoltz and Glavine, and the backlash it earned them.) It testifies to Amaro's earnestness in improving the team that he was willing to put such a strongly image-conscious franchise as the Phillies in such a position.

[Tony D]

clout, I dont think Mac Tonight likes you.

[clout]

Mac: Hmmm, I'm afraid I don't count 7 alternatives. You do list the top 4 current starters, but they're not alternatives. Which leaves the others on your list:

1. Lopez, who hasn't had a good season since 2005, is sporting a 5.70 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and sadly, for you, just got optioned.

2. Park, who's pitched quite well in the bullpen and therefore it makes no sense to return him to the rotation especially since he posted a 7.29 ERA when he was there before.

3. Carpenter, a junkballer with a 9.45 career ERA in The Show, who's pitching well at LV but whose stuff may not be enough for a starter.

4. Bastardo, the Beerleaguer proclaimed star who somehow had a 6.75 ERA when he was up.

5. Martinez, who may or may not have anything left, although I'm not sure his 5.11 ERA with 3 minor league teams tells us much.

I'm leaving Myers off the list because anyone who pays attention has read that he will not be be able to start again this season, although he might be able to come back as a reliever in mid to late September.

That's quite a list, Mac. But I'm not sure that the average fan (or the average 5-year-old) would agree with you that every one of them is a "viable" alternative.

[clout]

Tony D: He is a bit over-sensitive, isn't he?

[loctastic]

Bastardo has an awesome name though..

[doubleh]

Anyone see this photo of Victorino at Sesame Place:
http://www.thefightins.com/chris/shane-takes-a-trip-to-his-happy-place/

He's shorter than Elmo...LOL.

[TNA]

hh- That Elmo's got to be at least 6'2".

[Mac Tonight]

You used the word "alternatives" clout, not me. Once again, you are arguing with yourself because you have no argument at all.

I suppose it's easier to make stuff up to argue against when you have nothing to say. You would know that better than anyone, my arrogant friend.

[clout]

Mac Tonight: I'm sorry, you think the word "alternative" has a different meaning than "viable option"????

Let me refresh your memory:
"he is on a team with as many as seven viable options for a spot in the rotation."

[Andy]

I wonder how big the sample size needs to be for Steven Johnson's emergence theory stuff to work. If 619 people is enough, we can surmise that Pedro will be slightly better than Moyer. (Assigning a value of 1 to much worse and a 5 to much better and calibrate the scale by integers, we're figuring about 3.85 (and trending upwards) at this point in time.)

Good news.

Except that the poll is not random people who are voting, it's beerleaguers, which means "random" people.

[doubleh]

TNA: I was making a joke, since Shane is on the shorter side. I know those characters are generally pretty large.

I loved the comment from one of the posters who said "is this an artist's rendering of how Jayson Werth sees the world?" Brilliant.

[Andy]

626 people, 3.87

[cipper]

Is anyone else enjoying this hilarious argument going on between clout and mac?

I'm waiting to see who will be the first to 'throw down the keyboard' and come out 'clicking'...

I know I'm not funny but I thought I'd try...

and for the sake of an argument, I'll say that if they didn't sign pedro, Kendrick, Carpenter, or even Drabek or Savery would be getting the call around this time... because Moyer, as hard as it is to say about the man, sucks this year.

[clout]

cipper: You think the Phils would recall Drabek or Savery?

[awh]

Wow, back after being out of town for a couple of days.

My.....how things have changed.

Hmmmmm, the team has faltered a bit, Moyer has been replaced, and those of us who worried about complacency or taking the division for granted........well, I wonder if we're going to be as readily dismissed.

3-1/2 game lead. A lead that has been halved on 4 days. That probably had something to do with Moyer getting replaced. They can no longer afford to expose this limited bullpen every five days - at least not until Durbin, Condrey and Romero are back and showing they're healthy.

Could Pedro be worse than Moyer? Possibly, but Jamie has, unfortunately, been so erratic this season, at this point they almost had to make the move. Pedro could be worse, but he would have to be a total disaster to be worse.

Well, it seems the BL Reverse Jinx is alive and well.

As soon as I took on a handle to honor or most recedntly demoted pitcher, he started pitching like crap, to the tune of a 14.85 ERA. So, in order to reverse the Reverse Jinx, I will be dropping the handle and reverting to my original one, though out of humility I will be using lower case letters (it's also a PITA to use caps).

I also, because of the BL Reverse Jinx, urge Lake Happ to drop his moniker and revert to his original one.

Go Pedro!

[Cipper]

I think at the point, if Pedro wasn't in the picture, they would entertain the idea. Lopez was begining to fall off, haven't heard of Bastardo any time recently... Kendrick is still ify...Carpenter hasn't done all that great neither..

So why not? Savery just got called up to AAA right? And Kendrick was brought up to AA his rookie year... I dont see why they wouldn't entertain the idea.

[awh]

To settle the dispute, I propose that clout and Mac Tonight engage in a steel cage match.

Wee, either that, or, if they're female maybe mud wrestling in the parking lot during the next homestand.

[Unikruk]

What if they're really BIG females?

[cipper]

Why do we need a dispute to be settled with women mud wrestling? We should be having women mud wrestling every homestand, just for the sake of haveing women mud wrestling...

Maybe alternate with Jell-o every other Homestand...

[Bay Slugga]

Pie eating contest?

[Unikruk]

Ooh, ooh, most accurate throw to home plate from center field!

[Mac Tonight]

"he is on a team with as many as seven viable options for a spot in the rotation."

Yes.

1. Lee
2. Hamels
3. Blanton
4. Happ
5. Martinez
6. Lopez
7. Park
8. Moyer
(9. Carpenter)
(10. Kendrick)

All Phillies.
All healthy
All viable starters in the major leagues.
Most as good or better than Moyer in 2009.
Most paid far less than Moyer in 2009.

Thanks for playing.

Now piss off.

[Bay Slugga]

There's always room for Jell-o

[NEPP]

Park and Lopez have both shown themselves to suck worse than Moyer.

Now go get your shinebox.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Maybe you didn't hear, I don't do shines no more.

[CJ]

NEPP: Fair warning... the man who said "Now go get your shinebox" was stuffed half-dead in the trunk of a car, stabbed with a kitchen knife and dumped in a shallow grave.

I'm just sayin'...

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Whatever Pedro does, I'm reasonably sure it won't be dull.

I wouldn't bounce Moyer for Lopez, Park , Kendrick or Carpenter.

[clout]

Cipper: Drabek is 21 and the prize of the organization, coming off surgery. There is zero chance they would call him up. Kendrick was 22 and not nearly as prized a prospect, so the risk was lower. Savery has pitched 2 good games at Trip A and if he tosses a few more then maybe they would entertain it, but it would probably be 4th or 5th on their list.

[Bay Slugga]

Savery still has a lot of problems with walks. A fly ball pitcher who surrenders a lot of walks is not a winning formula in CBP.

[The Truth Injection]

Mac: I wouldn't use Carpenter, Lopez, or Park to strengthen your position. Also Kyle Kendrick is the source of scorn for many Beerleaguers so he probably won't help you much either.

That leaves you with what the real situation is without the need to bump numbers like you did. There are 6 starting pitchers for 5 spots.

[Andy]

Mac is forgetting Chacin; and I suppose if you include Drabek and Savery you could put Worley and Stutes on there. There are lots of guys who could start games. The real question is who, right now, would be a better starter than Moyer. With that question the list starts getting a lot smaller. It comes down, in fact, to maybe Pedro. (Although the beerleaguer emergent consciousness is pretty sure that Pedro will indeed be slightly better.)

In any event, I think the only way to settle the clout/Mac conflict is with balloons and blunderbusses, over the cesspool at dawn.

[Andy]

For those who do not know that reference, here is the scene from the movie.

[Phan]

"If he is healthy, Pedro is MUCH better than Jaime Moyer"

Perhaps it should say "was" not "is".

[RSB]

Mac Tonight: just so you know, bud, you come off as the far more intolerant a-hole in this "discussion". Don't think people are going to get behind you because you're not clout.

[awh]

Andy, not a bad idea. Haiku that one for us, will you?

[Mac Tonight]

RSB: I'm really not trying to round up allies. I've just found that the only way to combat obnoxious people is to lower to their level. At very least, it amuses me.

[Andy]

for awh:

mac tonight and clout
balloons and blunderbusses
it still ends in s**t

[Mac Tonight]

Hugh and Truth: For the difference in salary, both this season and next, I would most definitely entertain the notion of starting Lopez, Park, Carpenter, Kendrick and nearly anyone else with a pulse.

Moyer's free pass with me ended the day that he held the front office over a barrel for a second year. Frankly, I don't give a damn how his career ends.

[awh]

Andy, CLASSIC!!!!

Well done.

[loctastic]

A couple of good quotes, that's all we should expect from Pedro Martinez.

[clout]

TTI: Evidently Mac is unfamiliar with the stats and track records of those 4 players. Not to mention Park's performance in the bullpen makes the idea of him returning to the rotation absurd even by Mac Tonight standards. Like I said, even the average fan would know these are not "viable options."

[mikes77phillies]

"I wouldn't bounce Moyer for Lopez, Park , Kendrick or Carpenter."

Agree. Moyer is stining it up this year, but I would'nt bounce him from the rotation for any of these guys. That being said, Mac Tonite said "viable option" and I think given the chance to "TREND UPWARD" for 3 months, Kendrick and Chan Ho Park could put up a 5.47 in 22 starts.

[awh]

yo, new thread.