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Wednesday, August 19, 2009


Another great start. Roy who?

It feels so good to be a Phillies fan right now.

"Jim Bob and what's-his-face"

I think those are the same guys we got for Rolen.

I seem to remember people wanting to take Halladay for 1.5 years no matter what. Seems like Lee was the correct decision afterall.

The hits are surplusage. Plus, one was a swinging bunt. that said, he seems to be no pushover at the plate.

HH said something on the last thread about Eskin panning this trade. Listening to him is like listening to Bill O'Reilly - you're just asking to get your blood pressure up. The Lee deal was an obvious masterpiece when it was made and, that was before he blew the doors off Halladay over the last few weeks. He'll hit some bumps in the road but, compared to hte price for Halladay and given this guy's demonstrated ability, I can't believe anyone was disappointed in that deal. We needed a front line guy and we got a front line guy, without giving away the cream of the crap, er, crop.

Couldn't use "some dudes." That's reserved for Cervenak, Tracy, Mahar and Sellers.

btw - The Sandwich Man on 2d in HBG - 2.75 for a Yuengling quart. Almost as good as a Phillies win.

Are the Astros going to blow this? Come on, Valverde!

About Eskin, Mikey Miss, et al from the last thread: I miss the Philly area terribly and would move back in a heartbeat if I could, but I am thankful everyday to not be in the Philly sports talk radio market. As soon as I stopped listening to that garbage, I regained 10 IQ points that those fools had robbed from me. There are a few decent hosts (for some reason, I've always had a soft spot for Jody Mac), but most of the hosts and callers are scraping the bottom of the barrel. They're somewhere between the crazy, racist uncle who rips nasty farts at family gatherings and an idiotic, mouth-breathing jackass you've been friends with for 20 years but can't figure out why you let this person into your life in the first place, much less kept him around so long.

I seem to recall Eskin using the word "garbage" to describe Lee. Seriously. He must have been bitter about it, because how anyone could say Cliff Lee is garbage and have any credibility at all...he was likely p.o.'d because he thought the Phils were cheaping out. Whatever. Halladay was awesome, but it was going to cost too much by way of prospects. We just needed an upgrade and Lee was most definitely that...and turns out he can hit a little bit, too.

Whew! 'Stros win. After walking the bases loaded and 35 pitches, Valverde finally gets Coghlan to strike out.

Phils have now won 7 out of 8 games.

We lead the Marlins by 7 games in the loss column and the Braves by 8 games in the loss column.

No team in baseball has a larger lead in the loss column than the Phils.

No team in the NL has fewer losses than the Phils.

The Phils have the NL's best offense and best defense.

We also happen to have baseball's hottest starter and a starting staff that is really on its game.

Can I complain about Brad Lidge here?

Things are awfully good right now.

this is completely off the topic of lee, but today on missanelli he began the show talking about mike vick being caught socially drinking with a friend. he said it was an issue because of vick's probation. turns out later in the show he was told that not drinking alcohol was not in vicks probation orders. i don't like mike vick at all, but that's the kind of stuff these guys do - they have no regard for finding out facts before opening their mouths. and in the meantime they spread rumors and lies like they're real. and the amount of airtime the phillies are getting on those programs is no obsurd. the phillies are the best thing going in town and it's lucky to have 3 calls on them on the eskin or missanelli show. i'm done venting on them, but they don't help with baseball knowledge in this town, that's for sure. i wish j. stark did an afternoon.

Just for reference, here are the ERA+ figured post-trade regarding (arguably) the biggest name pitchers traded at the deadline the past two years:

2008: Sabathia, finished 11-2, 1.65 ERA, 260 ERA+

2009: Lee, (before tonight's start) 3-0, 1.12 ERA, 386 ERA+

I know there's a long way to go, but tonight's effort surely pushed that ERA+ into the 400 range, which is other-worldly.

I have a complaint. I just got back from the game and opened up my Brad Lidge bobblehead doll, and the head doesn't bobble. All it does is turn around and look up and over its left shoulder.

A Yankee friend of mine has, since his early youth, referred to the Muts as the Dog A$$es, a name I'll henceforth hyphenate. He got it from his pops, who got it from his pops, who must've hated the Dodgers.

Regardless... it's with great pleasure that I both introduce myself to Beerleaguer -- Hi, I'm Mr Classick (actually that's my Pops, but who are you to know better) -- and announce the following: the Nationals are closer to the Dog-Asses than the Dog-Asses are to the Phightins.

Pleased to meet you, mr. classick.
The way things are going, the gnats look better than the dog-asses.

Now *that* is a way to introduce yourself to Beerleaguer... by dropping a stat like this:

The Mets are 13.5 GB the Phils.
The Nats are 13.0 GB the Mets.


@loqiel..."All it does is turn around and look up and over its left shoulder."

that sounds like the Bobblehead can hold a runner better than Lidge himself...

There's no need to disparage some nice players who went to Cleveland. They could end up being a #3 starter, average starting catcher, solid utility guy and frontline pitcher. However, they were well worth giving up and there was never any doubt about it.

Another win for CLIFFord Lee... The big red dog of the starting rotation.

I realize his name is Clifton, but he's just a beast

Lee has been incredible, and to think he was the second choice to Halladay who lost again tonight

Lee getting some love on BBTN. Tell us, Vina, why he is so awesome.

If the real Brad Lidge occasionally looked over his left shoulder, he might do a lot better job at holding runners on first.

Oh, sorry. I skipped over some posts and only now realized that Mike C. had already made the exact same joke.

Rube done good! Si?

just imagine where we'd be if we had this guy all year! i don't think 100 wins is out of the realm of possibility for next year, though we need to focus on this one first.

So if Wags goes to an NL team, hopefully the Phils get to fulfill a long held dream of mine to hit a go-ahead home run off him in a playoff game. And if he goes to Bos/NYY, I'd like to see Pat Burrell jack one off him for old time's sake. Oh man, that would be too sweet.

Wow! Conlin, in his column this morning, annoints Vic as the best Phillies CF EVER!

Lee, Happ and days off have kept the bullpen nice and fresh, eh?

Vic the best Phillies CF ever? He's definitely become one of my favorite players, but t-h-e b-e-s-t?

Food for thought: Where would we be if Rowand re-signed? No Werth? No Ibanez?

I know we do our fair share of bitching on this site, but seriously, how good is it to be a Phillies fan lately? The 2000's have seen the team make a rise from the basement, to a .500 team, to contention, to winning it all. These are good times right now, lets appreciate them.

Good Morning!

Carson: It is very good.

Oh, this is so much fun. I am so happy about GranPop and Lee.

Since the Phils were last up 7 games in the standings both the Fish and the Braves are 12-8 (.600) and have gained only a game and a half in the standings, 1 in the loss column.

****I have a complaint. I just got back from the game and opened up my Brad Lidge bobblehead doll, and the head doesn't bobble. All it does is turn around and look up and over its left shoulder.****


To Carson: The late 80s, 90s and early 2000s were are design to weed the weaker fans out...this is our reward.

Our reward?

NEPP, the baseball gods reward no one, especially for suffering.

That's just the way they are.

Fickle, mischievous, and arbitrary, they cast their long shadow on, among other things, strike zones, batted balls, fielders' gloves, players' health and the weather.

How else, pray tell, does one explain the Chicago Cubs?

So, I expect nothing for my suffering - life isn't fair.

But, I will enjoy these times nonetheless, and hope that they continue for many, many seasons.

I have a complaint: Raul Ibanez has been a DISASTER offensively of late. He looks absolutely lost.

But goddamn this team is fun to watch. Vic may not be the best CF in team history, but is this the best starting pitching the Phils have had in team history? It's gotta be up there.

Prof- Yer Raul does look like a player that needs a night off.

But to join in the joyful tone on BL this morning-- great pitching by Lee & Moyer, with an assist by Pedro, the last 2 nights.
And the offense was none too shabby either.

Off topic post, looking way ahead: I've been doing a little standings surfing lately and have noticed that the Yankees - somehow quietly - are sliding towards 100 wins. Should this be cause for concern? Or is it just interesting cannon fodder?

Benny Profane - way to live up to your name. I would say Ibanez is playing like what he is: 37. My opinion is that he will prove to be a first half player throughout his contract before father time reaches out and pulls him back to earth. Should the Phils clinch early, I fully expect Ibanez to get a wealth of time off at the end of the year.

Benny P, do NOT take the Lord's name in vain.

(The baseball gods don't like that either.)

"I would say Ibanez is playing like what he is: 37. My opinion is that he will prove to be a first half player throughout his contract before father time reaches out and pulls him back to earth." - PJ

Does this remind anyone else of Tom Gordon? Late 30s signing, 3 year deal, dominant in the first half of year 1, made the all-star team, got hurt, and foundered the rest of the way. I pray this is not the case for RI.

"what's-his-face" is excellent writing. A lesser writer woulda settled for "what's-his-name".

Phillies have the 3rd best run differential in baseball (+91), behind on the Yankees (+107) and Dodgers (+119).

Another off topic, to Brett Myers.

Going to a bar the night before a big rehab start is bad judgment. Why even take a chance to invite trouble? But these things happen all the time. I'm sure Myers had a little liquid courage/anger in him, someone mouthed off to his wife, he mouthed back, etc. I used to witness this about 20 times a night when I was younger and frequented the bar scenes.

However, lying twice about the incident goes beyond bad judgment. It shows bad character. If I was in the FO, I would be much more alarmed at the signs of bad character as opposed to the bad judgment.

Lee is awesome! Homers by Howard, Utley and Werth? Awesome! Werth has turned out to be a great Value Village acquisition!

Are we in the market for the Rat? I can hold my nose and root for Pedro. I guess I can root for the Rat.

So, does the Lee success fuel Hamels's fire and kick him into gear, or just serve to frustrate our "other ace?" I'm concerned that King Cole might not take to being second fiddle so well. Here's hoping he steps up, rather than go into 'diva sulk' mode.

Ya know, it's been awhile since mvptommy bragged about his prediction that Ibanez would hit 40 HRs and drive in 110 runs.

Profane - Exactly. Ibanez has really struggled offensively the past 3 weeks at the plate. Heard to tell if he is entering one of his patented slumps (month of where he hits .250-.270 with little/no power and a low OBP). What you can't tell how much of it is related to his groin injury but it is clear that he doesn't have nearly the same power as before.

Here the Ibanez numbers pre and post DL:

62 G, 250 ABs, .312/.371/.656 for 1.027 OPS with a crazy 22 HRs and 59 RBIs

Since July 11th:

31 G, 117 ABs, .239/.310/.444 for .755 OPS with 5 HRs and 19 RBIs

Cholly needs to start Francisco more than he has been to give Ibanez a bit more of a breather. Francisco's last start was Aug 11. Frankly, this is no reason why Cholly can't start Francisco against LHP more to give Ibanez a bit of breather and try to help his groin injury a bit down the stretch. Francisco isn't a rookie and isn't Bruntlett.

Same goes for Feliz. Feliz clearly looks tired out there. No reason that Dobbs shouldn't be starting at least once a week too. His start was on Aug 9 and he has been used very sparingly the past couple of weeks.

As for Feliz, I thought it would be a slam dunk to resign him and pick up his option 6 weeks ago. You have to see where he finishes up but his defense has clearly slipped a bit this year (although he is still a solid option at 3B), his power stroke continues to diminish (you can clearly beat him now with a 93-94 MPH fastball that is belt-high and middle-in where 2-3 years ago he would likely crush that pitch), and what drives me crazy with him is that "That guy is *back*... trying to pull the ball again! ..

It baffles my mind why Feliz almost inevitably resorts to this crap every season where he tries to pull every damn pitch regardless of type and location. It is like a junkie who always comes back for another fix. Slider down and away - pull it. Fastball in - pull it. Changeup inside - pull it.

Feliz clearly has value but Cholly needs to rest him a bit more down the stretch and Feliz has to stop trying to pull every pitch he sees/make so many easy outs.

This lineup really has looked good at times especially when Feliz is making solid contact and not creating easy outs.

RE: Brett Meyers

What grown man takes his wife to a bar anyway? Have some class. Meyers = white trash.

Conlin is crazy. Look at these numbers and tell me Vic is the best. And that's just in the modern game. Vic also would have to beat out this guy who was one of the best base stealers ever.

I'm not even sure he beats out the secretary of defense who made the VET OF look small and Greg Luzinski look fast.

Regarding Raul, maybe it's time for Charlie to give him a night off, and perhaps sit him against LHP.

Not that he can't hit LHP, but it will give Benny Frank a few more AB and Raul some additional rest on that groin.

In re: Rauul
Anyone who looked at his logs over the past few years (as BL did to an insane extent when he was acquired) knows that he goes through periods of extreme drought on a regular basis. It happens every year. He also comes back from them.

Some might call this reverting to career norms even.

Andy: "Some might call this reverting to career norms even."

According to Beerleaguer posters no such thing exists.

Willard, our man Colbert won't sulk about Lee. Since Lee and Moyer both sport 11-9 records, Colbert can just diss Lee by saying he's only as good as "washed up" Moyer.

I find cheering for Pedro very easy for some reason.

Wagner, however, reminds me of Percy in The Green Mile.

clout - In re: BL posters

They don't believe in Yetis, alternate universes and Darren Daulton either.

It's almost as if Andy baited Clout into posting a "you're damn straight" type response. I'm amazed that it only took 4 minutes.

Clifton and Colbert sounds like a law firm

Andy: Thank you for posting some common sense on Raul. He might benefit from some days off, but it's definitely not time to jump off the Ibanez bridge.

I remember hearing Rosenthal say that there were times he absolutely carried the Mariners...and then he went in a drought for a while. I do think an injury has something to do with it this year, but there is no reason to think he won't have a few more big hits before this thing is over. Look at Howard, many considered his drought perminent just a few weeks ago. Ah, the ebbs and flows of a baseball season...

Jayson Werth has now matched Raul Ibanez' totals in home runs and surpassed him in RBI

"According to Beerleaguer posters no such thing exists."

What? If anything, "reverting to career norms" or "regressing to the mean" is way over-used as an explanation on this site.

Anyway, I think people need to back off Raul. The guy absolutely carried this team in the early-going, its okay if he has to hand the batton to Howard now.

BENTZ: True true

MG: Feliz is definitely streaky, quietly one of the most streaky on the team. It drives you a little crazy, too, because the guy actually can have a nice, easy swing and take smart at bats.

And it only took Clout-obsessed SmokyJoe 1 minute to jump.

SmokyJoe -- Myers being a punk is nothing new. Which is why he'll be closing next year for a small market team willing to take a shot. What good does it do the Phillies to make a big deal of him getting punched out? They just need him to get rehabbed and be ready to go in Sept.

smokyjoe - Like dropping a plastic purple worm in front of a bigmouth bass.

I do want to point out, however, that with regard to reverting to career norms over the course of a 162 game season, I actually agree with clout that a) it happens; and b) a lot of people do not perceive it happening until after it does.

What's interesting about streaks is that when they start the season, fans go nuts and either bury a guy or proclaim him a Hall of Famer. When the player reverts to the mean later in the season, nothing is said. The start of the season is over-magnified, while mid-season streaks go unnoticed.

Clout. I said 25-30 HRs and 100 RBI. Way to put words in my mouth in true clout fashion.And last time I checked, he is most likely going to accomplish my prediction, thanks clout.

In re: Myers
He's worth a couple draft picks next year unless they fail (a la Burrell) to offer him arbitration. Even if he accepts arbitration, he might make for an okay 1-year player.

I don't think Myers will qualify as a Type A FA.

clout: That was Ryan Madson's problem for a while. In 2007, he struggled at the beginning of the season and was injured at the end. In the middle, he was the team's best reliever not named Myers.

Clout: thank you, captain obvious. And why don't you follow your own advice there regarding Hanson. You update us after every start as to prove you being right about something.

At the beginning of the season, the statistical line for the player ONLY contains the streak. In the middle and beyond, it is the compilation. For instance, what kind of hitter is Rollins right now? Right now he is closer to be the hot guy that gets cheered than the dead weight the team carried the first month. His stat line says .241 BA, but he's a lot better than that, too.

Rauul right now is not the guy we knew in May, nor the guy shown by his 2009 stats. BUT, at some point, he will become something closer to his career numbers. So you keep playing him and wait it out. It's what you do unless you're desparate. Charlie, who has remarkable patience and a way of treating his players like adults plying a difficult trade, is not a desparate kind of guy. Expect Ibanez to maybe get a little time off, but not much.

With Davis pitching tonight I expect to see Raul get the night off.

mvptommy: You most definitely claimed Ibanez would hit 40 HRs. Do not pretend like you said 25-30. That's ridiculous.

On this issue, Clout and I were on the exact same page. We both said (I believe), that Ibanez would put up his normal career slash stats (.285/.355/.500) or so, with a little bump in power (SLG and HRs) because of the park and a little bump in RBIs because of the lineup.

Tommy, you got totally carried away by his hot start and made ridiculous claims. You now look ridiculous.

Clout: And end-of-season streaks are magnified excessively as well. See: Ryan Howard, last year.

Andy: I don't think Conlin is saying Vic is the best overall CF in Phils history. That's unsupportable. Ashburn led the DECADE in NL hitting in the 1950s (most hits, highest BA), a decade that included Mays, Aaron, Clemente, Musial etc. Vic will never do anything close to that.

Conlin is saying that Vic is the best defensive CF the Phils have had. Of course, at CBP, this is like having a Mercedes E Class that you use only to go down the block to Wawa.

Conlin's argument is based on Vic's excellent arm, which is inarguably superior to Ashburn's and Maddox's. Given their respective homefields and how Maddox played (way shallow, Vic plays normal depth), I believe Maddox had superior range to Vic. So really is boils down to how important you think a CF's arm needs to be. Is it more important than range? Or is the gap between Vic's arm and Maddox's much larger than the gap in their range?

I think that's the case Conlin is making and I think you could make a case against him as well.

Yeah, but an end of the year streak is worth a lot more (or is a lot more costly) to a play-off team. It deserves to be magnified.

Jack: go find that quote of me saying that. At the beginning of the season I said ibanez will have 25 homers and 100 rbis. When he had his hot start I said he is ON PACE for 40 HOUR and 110 rbis. See the difference? You and clout are ridiculous in twisting words around.

Andy - On Vic- I agree Conlin is way overstating his case in comparison to Ashburn & Maddox, but Vic has some traits that remind me of CF'ers past.
300+ average, shallow defensive position with the ability to go back.And this year a trip to the AS game .
Give Vic a decade or so of years like that and ol' Conlin may make some sense.

jack: are you saying his streak was over rated?

Whoever was speculating that clout is Conlin can forget about it. Conlin today:

"best-ever centerfielder: Victorino"

"one-dimensional player like Pat Burrell"

"Reverting to career norms" is solid science. Each at bat is a unique event. A .300 hitter has a 3 in 10 chance of getting a hit. If he gets five at bats in a game, he could get five hits. He could get five hits a game for a number of games, but over the long run, he'll regress and end up batting .300.

Now BLers are pessimists. Hitters on good streaks we fully expect will cool down and "revert to career norms". However, when Ryan Howard is slumping, BLers will consider his career over and he needs to be traded. We don't believe that a slumping Howard can "revert to career norms".

clout - I'm not convinced that Ashburn did not have a truly decent arm. Look at his early fifties assist numbers, for instance. And there were years - 1957 sticks in my mind (I could check but I'm not going to) when he reached more than 500 balls. That was in Connie Mack, right? Which I think had a very deep center field fence. I'd still go Whitey.

As for Maddox, well, yeah. He had a noodle arm. But he still won 8 GGs.

Charlie Manuel on the Cliff Lee-Paul Bako battery
"He's 3-0, and to be honest with you, that is one of the reasons" for using Bako, Manuel said. Then the manager quickly switched gears.

"He is not his personal catcher," Manuel insisted.

So basically, you don't mess with a guy on a streak and if you think you're winning because you're breathing out of your eyelids, then you are.

Now if Eric Bruntlett could revert to career norms of a .200 BA, we'd be set...

re: conlin on vic...

clout, that's right, conlin's article is a defense only argument (and a financial argument, too). conlin does not even consider batting avg. or on base percentage - he doesn't even talk about stolen bases, which is fine. but if he did, the argument would be harder to make.

being 32 i am way too young to remember ashburn. i did see maddux but was way too young to be thinking about the kind of center field he played. the guy i remember most is dykstra and while he crashed into walls, he was rather limited with his arm.

now, if we make this an offensive argument, my bias would be that dykstra had the two best offensive years ('02 and '93) of any phillies center fielder. but ashburn hands down was better over a longer period of time. and vic, we'll see...

drb: Im saying his overall numbers for the year were decent at best for him (see: .251/.339/.543, same power numbers as the year before), but because he was hot in September, he finished 2nd in the MVP voting and he was considered to have a great year by a lot of people on here.

FWIW, I thought it was absolutely ridiculous that Carlos Delgado got MVP consideration last year too. Does the first half of the year not count? I know the 2nd half should get more weight because the games are higher leverage situations, but the first half counts too. Both Howard and Delgado were AWFUL in the first half last year, and their overall season stats were not worthy of MVP votes.

At this point, though, it probably doesn't matter, because the award might as well be renamed the Albert Pujols MVP award.

this whole "reverting to career norms" has some truth to it when it comes to drastic jumps and streaks, but what about a guy like vic? does it mean that he will end up hitting .280 or .290 this year? what if a guy just figures some things out gets better as his career goes on? the career norms argument does get a little overblown - it doesn't allow anyone the opportunity to get better.

cipper: that would be .228! Don't short-change the gnome.

Dukes: Obviously, the longer a guy's career, the more established his career norms. Also, you have to consider that career stats usually form an arc, and are not linear. Guys begin a certain way, then improve to establish norms at their peak, and then decline. You do have to consider where a guy is in his career when comparing him to his own "norms".

Francisco's career splits vs. LHP:

.270 .359 .450 .809

Raul's career splits vs LHP:

.270 .327 .431 .758

Seems to me Raul can rest that groin every so often.

"What grown man takes his wife to a bar anyway? Have some class. Meyers = white trash."
That's a dumb comment. What's wrong with going to a bar, unless you are Carrie Nation or someone of her ilk. My wife and I are old enough to be Myers' parents and we make an occasional stop in a bar.

anybody think there is truth to the rumor of lee's dislike for latin players? the rumor began when lee hit sosa in the head during the second at bat of the game the texas rangers were honoring sosa for hitting 600 homeruns. sosa had to leave the game. after the game, lee and victor martinez got into an argument that ended in a team meeting because martinez thought lee didn't show enough remorse. is it by coincidence that kelly shoppach (not martinez) was his personal catcher in cleveland and bako (not ruiz) seems to be his personal catcher here? i'm not stating this to be true, just throwing out these details.

jack: good points.

It was important for Ibanez to get off to a hot start to win over a lot of fans who were still devastated by the loss of Pat. I was at both Opening Day and Ring Day and I heard an awful lot of "I wish we'd kept Pat" and "who is this Ibanez guy anyhow?". I think the support he enjoys now can only help him get back on track, because he looks mighty lost right now.

Edmundo: Agreed. Mrs. Bedrosian's Beard and I spent many hours inside a bar last night.

****So basically, you don't mess with a guy on a streak and if you think you're winning because you're breathing out of your eyelids, then you are.****

Respect the streak. UC does and so do I. How anyone can be a sports fan or athletee and NOT be superstitious is beyond me.

Its not that Myers went to a bar...its that he went to a dive bar where fights break out regularly...that's the mistake. He shoulda went somewhere a bit know, like McFaddens.

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EST. 2005

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