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Friday, August 14, 2009

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Yeah. I'm sure glad we were able to get Jack Taschner for Paulino. There would have been no room for Paul Bako otherwise.

Thank goodness - new thread.

I respectfully request that from hereon out fellow BLrs limit themselves to discussing only one Vic - the one that really matters to Phillies' fans.
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Jason, many of us here said at the beginning of the season "beware of the Braves" because we recognized the depth of their pitching.

The fact that they are 5 back with plenty of time to catch up if the Phils falter is no surprise.

Taking 2 of 3 this weekend would certainly help a great deal.

"starting to believe they have the right combination of pitching and hitting to take the division"

No, they've believed it all year. Until a couple of weeks ago their pitching was msnifestly much better than ours.

curt, very true. Which leads me to 'utter':

Thank goodness Jr. went out and got Cliff Lee!

The Phillies' site says their Saturday starter is TBA. Isn't that suppose to be Hamels' turn?

I had the same question as DJMTWO on Saturday's starter.

I kind of look at this a different way...

ATL has the best record in the entire bigs since the break and they are as much as 5 games back still?

Florida swept us at home and went on to win their next series and are still sit 6 games back in the loss column?

So pretty much, they have done everything they possibly can, and still can't even get close enough to make the Phils sweat.

Atlanta is not the best team in the bigs and the Marlins find a way to lose 6 straight anytime they rattle off 6 wins. So if it all continues, we'll be flirting with a double digit lead by the beginning of Sept.

I worry about this series for the simple fact that it means more to the Braves than it does the Phillies.

While the Phils would like to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division, the Braves are undoubtedly desperate to close the gap.

Hopefully Lee's impressive start yesterday rested the bullpen. Moyer is probably still unavailable. Park may need one more night before he's available. Durben, Eyre, and Walker have been leaned on hard recently.

Madson seems to be the only reliever used sparingly. He's made seven appearances in 22 days.

Blanton, Hamels, and Happ going this weekend. We should have a good chance at taking 2 of 3. On a pace to win 92-93 games this season; add a hot streak to the mix and we are looking at 95 wins. Marlins and Braves project to around 85 wins. I think that's about right for them. They are good teams but not championship caliber. Phils, just take care of business this weekend in the ATL.

Who's the best Vic in town? Shane or Mike?

put me down as one who is tired of losing to the NL east teams !

phaithful, I share your optimism that the Phils will win the division.

I'm not sure I agree that a double digit lead is in the cards.

Besides, do we really want them to run away with it and relax at the end of the season?

All I want is a seven game lead with six to play. Give them all a week to rest the nagging injuries so we're ready to go for the second season.

phaithful, yeah it's a good thing the Phillies aren't a streaky team like the Marlins.

"Who's the best Vic in town? Shane or Mike?"
That question is the ultimate insult to the real Vic.

Yes, 2 of 3 this weekend is a must. Braves are feeling good about themselves (and rightly so) but the Phils must put an end to that.

When the Braves were sucking a couple months ago nearly every one here wrote them off. I do remember a couple posters saying they thought in the end the Braves would be the toughest rival. Can't remember who they were, but hats off to them for they were right and the Beerleaguer consensus was wrong.

Is that a Summer stormf, a thunder stormf, or a perfect stormf.

I'm so depressed today; I hope the Phillies can do well in this series. I can't believe in 24 hours how much has changed in this city. There's more negativity in the air (radio, TV, etc.) than usual around here. It's horrible.

I always thought the Braves were our toughest competition within the division and am actually quite nervous about this series. I hope the Phils come prepared to play because I think the Braves are going to play them like it's Game 7.

Stairs,Bako,Brunlett... any relief for this trio after 9/1? Stairs sun appears to have set. Guess the other 2 must bring Cholly his diet drink each day.What can you say?

Braves end their season with a bunch of Washington Nats games. It would be good for the Phils to have some distance in the standings come late September- early October.
Too many years of Braves winning the East and every one else looking at the wild card standings stuck in my memory.
God, I hate the tomahawk chant!

its hittin season !

Andy- Funny as usual.f

phanatic's bro-

put me in that category as well, christ it would be nice to beat the teams that are breathing down your neck once in a while.

with the muts looking like crap the braves have really filled the hate void lately... going to be watching this series closely!

The Phillies have a chance again to step on a rivals throat. They missed that chance with the Marlins. They get it again with the Braves. At some point you need to deliver the knockout punch to the rival and make them go away.

Stairs is now the latest player declared done by Beerleaguer posters.

clout: Why are people wrong to have written off the Braves? They're in third place and 6 games out in the loss column.

Were people wrong to write them off simply because they've had a hot streak? I guess people were wrong to write off the Nationals as well. Each are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

As we remain "worried" about Atlanta and Florida, I'll simply point out that no team in baseball has a larger lead in the loss column than the Phils. The Yankees also hold a 6 loss lead, the two LA teams hold 5 loss leads and Detroit and St. Louis hold 3 loss leads.

The lead will shrink and expand a few times between now and October, but the division race is over.

CJ: Yeah, good point. There's no chance that a team 6 down in the loss column on Aug. 14 could make the playoffs. The Braves should be written off, you're right. Sorry for my dumb statement.

There is one thing that is a MUST in this series: the Braves MUST sweep the Phillies. Otherwise, their chances of winning the NLEast are slim and none. After this series, the Phils have a softer schedule than the Braves. Its going to be difficult for the Braves to pick up too many games:

PHI: ARI, @NYM, @PIT, ATL, SFG, @HOU, @WAS, NYM

ATL: @NYM, FLA, SD, @PHI, @FLA, CIN, @HOU, @STL

Florida twice, at Philly, and at St. Louis? Sorry, its tough to be pessimistic about the Phillies chances against the Braves if they can avoid a sweep this weekend.

CJ: You usually make good, well-thought out points. I think you are off the mark here. There are many games remaining and anything can happen, especially when 2 very streaky teams are facing each other several times over the course of the next month and a half.

This race is not over. Phils are in control, but you would be niave and careless to think that "the race is over." injuries, poor hitting streaks, bullpen issues...all can contribute to a tightening race.

wonder is the mets thought the division race was over a couple years ago???

"I do remember a couple posters saying they thought in the end the Braves would be the toughest rival. Can't remember who they were..."

I'm sure clout can recall at least one such person.

Truth - excellent point - and right on the money.

clout: Never said that it's impossible. Just stating my opinion that the division race is over. I feel the Phils are too good and the Braves and Marlins not good enough. That doesn't mean things won't tighten at some point between now and October.

Are you saying the Braves will win the division? Because if they don't, then it was correct to write them off, wasn't it?

doubleh: Of course "anything can happen." But I'm confident that the Phils are better than the Marlins and the Braves. I'm also confident that neither of those teams will make up the 6 games in the loss column on the Phils. Like I said... even if things tighten up at some point, it won't matter.

Is there something wrong with being confident in the Phillies? I know it goes anything everything that Philadelphia fan is supposed to be...

clout, doesn't matter what you say, the division race is DONE. D-O-N-E. These are irrefutable points.

"the division race is over"

No Phil fan alive in 1964 would even think this for a second.

Masterlock, they probably did! And that's why they lost a 7 game lead with 17 to play! Hopefully the Phils players don't think the division race could be over soon.

However, the Mets collapse was historic. In over 100 years of baseball, no team had ever lost a 7 game lead with 17 to play. Seeing that again in our lifetimes is about as unlikley as Gnome finishing hitting 300. Hell, all he has to do is go 21 for his next 21 - anything is possible, right?

I can't believe all the heat I'm getting for being confident in the Phils.

Is that so wrong?

We're up 6 games in the loss column on two teams that aren't as good as the Phillies. Sure, anything could happen. Half the team could get injured. The wind could suddenly blow in for every home game.

I believe the Phils will win the division. I don't believe any team chasing us is good enough to prevent that.

Is this opinion *really* that controversial?

CJ: Here is what you wrote:

"Why are people wrong to have written off the Braves? They're in third place and 6 games out in the loss column."

That is a demonstrably stupid statement. That was my only point.

Klaus: Why, was it you?

In the latest Metsblog post, there is a dude who says the Mets need a manager like Charlie Manuel...so they should hire Larry Bowa. That's pretty funny.

Clout, don't be modest. : )

"Are you saying the Braves will win the division? Because if they don't, then it was correct to write them off, wasn't it?"

No... would it have been correct to write off the 2000 election for Gore after they called Bush the winner at 2 a.m. election night? Of course I believe the Braves won't win the division, but you don't write a team off unless you think they can't.

CJ: few would disagree with you when you say the Phillies will most likely win the division.

I chafe when you say this: "Just stating my opinion that the division race is over."

That's not literally true. It's not even figuratively true. The Braves pitch well. Recently they've been hitting well. They have the league's best post-ASB record. They've become a good team, it seems.

clout: So it wasn't correct to write off a team that won't win the division? At which point will I be allowed to officially write off the Braves. Can I write off the Mets? I assume we can write off the Nats, right?

Spitz: That is classic. Have there every been two polar opposites coaching the Phils back-to-back?

Klaus: You clearly give the Braves a better chance than I do. It's certainly your right.

I believe the division race is over.

Is it wrong to say the Nats won't win the division? They're not "officially" eliminated either.

I think certainty is warranted in the case of the Nats. Not so with the Braves.

Tray: I don't think the Braves can win the division. Hence, I've written them and the Marlins off.

I understand if people aren't comfortable doing that, but it's certainly not worthy of the outrage I've seen. I'm funny, actually.

CJ's vendetta against clout is leading to some hilarious delusional posts.

CJ: I think people's pessimism is what's leading the "outrage". Your opinion seems valid to me. Yes, anything can happen, but the Phils do appear to be the better team.

Truth Injection: Vendetta against clout? I'm not sure why there would be. We disagree on a couple topics (Moyer, for example), but we agree on significantly more. In fact, for a long time, people thought clout and I were the same poster.

Bed Beard: Fair enough. I don't begrudge people their opinion. But I also don't think it's unreasonable to believe the division race is effectively over.

CJ: I, too, am quite optimistic that the Phillies will hold off the Braves & Marlins, and win the East. But saying "I believe the division race is over" is like saying, "I believe that 3 + 5 = 6." You can say it all you want, but it's preposterous on its face.

Maybe there is a better way to think about this, rather than arguing the semantics of whether the race is over or not. I'd argue that the Phillies in better position than any other division leader because they have the biggest advantage in talent versus the second and third place teams in their division. Maybe you could argue that the talent gap between the Angles and the Rangers is as large as the talent gap between the Phils and the Marlins / Braves, but thats about it. I would definitely NOT want to trade places with LAD, STL, NYY, or DET.

CJ: Saying "Should we write off the Nats," is ridiculous.

I don't think we can just easily write off the Braves yet considering we are right now 2-7 versus them this year. It's not impossible for them to take 6 of the last 9.

"You can say it all you want, but it's preposterous on its face."

An example of BL at its worst.

CJ is merely stating his opinion that he thinks the the Phillies are the better team and they have the division locked up. Yes, there are X amt of games to play and they have to go out there and win X amt for them to OFFICIALLY lock it up, but he feels they are the better team and will do that.

Clout(and others) opinion that they aren't willing to go that far just yet b/c there's a lot of ball to play is also fair enough, b/c yes, it is true there are X amt of games to play and it is technically not over.

CJ, there is a difference between saying a team "cannot" do it and saying they "will not" do it.

I put you in the category of saying you believe the division race is effectively over because you believe the Braves and Marlins "will not" do it.

Is that a fair statement of your position?

Just don't get swept. And there's really no way they should get swept with their starting pitching.

Amen BobbyD - finally someone talking sense!

"Just don't get swept. And there's really no way they should get swept with their starting pitching."

Careful, BobbyD, I'm sure some people going into the Marlins series thought the same thing.

My two favorite things of beauty in sports:

2. Brian Westbrook hits the hole and busts one up the gut for 16 yards.
1. Ryan Howard puts a good swing on the ball and pops one into the left field seats.

I like the way Ryan's swinging right now. I'm ready for one of his patented streaks where he carries the team for a while.

That's fair.

I do not believe either the Marlins or Braves *will* win the division.

And now we can move on. Didn't mean to hijack the thread.

BREAKING:

Brett Myers to begin rehab assignment tomorrow in Clearwater. He'll start but pitch just one inning. He's slated for the bullpen when he returns.

BedBeard: So, in your understanding of the English language the statement "The division race is over" equals "The Phillies are the better team."

Is English your first language? Third?

Klaus, clout being disingenuously modest is a joy to behold, no?

yo, new thread.

I'm more worried about the 2009 Fish, because they smell like the 2007 Phillies. They smell hungry.

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