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Thursday, August 20, 2009

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"Bruntlett can prepare for what he's asked to do" by visiting a Botanical Garden somewhere and standing next to a toadstool.

mvptommy: So the RBI discussion contained no mention of Raul batting 6th? And yet 4 separate posters here all remember the whole point of the debate was his spot in the lineup and how hard it would be to get to 100 with these guys in front of him, when he batted cleanup in Seattle. How do you explain this? Mass hypnotism? Or bad recollection on your part?

This sounds like a great idea, Jason, which is why it most likely will not happen. I say 1% chance Dobbs gets the start tonight, although I do see Benny being out there.

For godssakes, can we keep the Ibanez/RBI "discussion" to the last thread? It's ridiculous.

Ibanez looks like a player that could benefit from a day off.
Feliz too- But I don't know if Chaz. will sit 2 regulars.

Clout: simple answer. Those are the people on your side of the debate of him not be able to hit 100. The whole debate was that he hit 100 batting cleanup in Seattle. But batting lower in the lineup here below Howard wouldn't give him the chances. NOWHERE does it say 6th in the debate. It says below Howard.

I actually said he'd hit 100...but what do I know.

I'm saying right now that Ibanez gets a sports hernia operation next year, only plays in a couple dozen games, and only hits 15 RBI next year. If I'm right, I will remind everyone on the post everyday. If I'm wrong, it will be so far removed, that either nobody will remember my prediction, or at least I'll be able to recollect differently about it and everyone will be too lazy to look it up.

SmokyJoe: So true. It's a shame that there isn't a "post history" for the users here. Would make that sort of tactic useless if you could just, with a few clicks, see all the posts a user has ever made.

I am hoping Fransisco will come off the bench and make a contribution tonight. I like the way he plays and he looks like a good pickup. Although, from what I've noticed watcing him over the past few weeks, is that he seems to be very suseptible to the low and away slider or off-speed pitch. I will say that he seems to have a swing from the right side that is tailor made for the Bank.

1) dobbs will not play tonight. manuel doesn't play him against lhp and won't tonight either
2) smokyjoe is an idiot

In re: Victorino vs. Ashburn
I am not so sure that the evidence is compelling that Ashburn's arm was not decent. The percentage of runners who held against him, in his prime, is little different from other CFs of his day (though decidedly lower than Mays). From 1954 - 57 (chosen because those are the first four years that extended data in available) only four NL teams had steady CFs. By the stats and stories Mays had the best arm. After that, though, Ashburn is better than both Duke Snider and Gus Bell. More kills and far more DPs. Their "hold" percentages are all about the same. People do tend to hold against Victorino, at a Mays-like rate. But when they do run on him, he's not nailing them any better than Ashburn was able to. Indeed, Ashburn got more of the runners, percentage-wise, than Vic has from Center.

OTOH, I have seen Vic throw but not Ashburn. And Vic throws very well.

P.S. It's hard to believe that clout wasn't watching the Phils in the mid-50s. Who WAS your team then?

If the Phills are able to clinch early, the bench will get played then. I would not worry about getting ABs for the bench unless the lead shrinks and it's a race to the finish.

subtle humor isn't your specialty, is it ST?

I remember indicating that the main problem was batting sixth. I even asked Sophist to do research on how many fewer PAs went to the sixth versus fourth spots.

I also remember recanting after his hot streak, not because I thought he'd continue to be hot, but more because he had amassed so many RBIs in the early going that even in the sixth spot and hitting at his career pace, he was going to make it. I still believe that.

I think the best way to get Bruntlett more ABs is to trade him to Narnia.

a day so very bold
smoky joe's prediction made
august twentieth


I think I'll run that haiku everyday. That way we'll never forget and when Rauul gets his 16th RBI next year you'll have to eat crow.


(I have several good, well-tested recipes, incidentally.)

ooops.

Take out the "so" in the first line. Start: "a day very bold"


Thanks.

I did think that Ibanez could get to 100 batting primarily 6th -- for essentially the same reasons as Andy. But I also predicted that he'd end up getting moved around so much that the issue would become moot. On this second point, I was right. On the first, we'll never know.

For what it's worth, Ibanez & Werth have 152 RBIs between them. Only 39 of those RBIs (16 for Werth, 23 for Ibanez) came out of the No. 6 spot.

Give Cliff Lee the start at 3rd, he can hit better than Brunt.

Do you think Met fans write haiku? Or even know what it is?

Interestingly enough, Andy, I have been eating crow all day at work today. I was blaming several leaders for not following a new process, when in fact, my program had a hidden bug in it. Crow does not taste like chicken. It tastes really bad. Off course, hopefully I'll learn a lesson of humility, similarly to the way a child learns not to cuss from the bad taste of soap in their mouth.

Off course, I blame beerleaguer for the bug in the program, because it distracted me from giving the code my full attention. Off course, I can't tell anyone at work that.

Replace every "off course" with "of course"

SmokyJoe: I also find that BL distracts me from coding properly. Oh well I guess.

"off course" works fine.

In re: corvidae barbecue

LOTS of sauce; that's all.

Tonight's game is on the MLB Network. Does anyone know if they will just steal the feed (and announcing) from the home or away team, or will they supply their own broadcast and announcers?

I thought they had their own announcers, but I could be wrong.

Thanks for the out of market heads up, too.

Just Francisco in left tonight. No other changes besides Ruiz.

Livan released. Wagner activated.

MLB TV has their own announcers. I'd kind of like to listen to them, but think they might be blacked out.

Can you all believe that Ben Francisco was basically a throw-in for the Cliff Lee deal? Down the stretch, he gives this team significantly more flexibility than Mayberry provided.

Amaro sure earned his stripes with that deal.

CJ - Almost as important is that Lee and Francisco are going to fill 2 clear needs the Phils had next year also (a frontline starter for when Myers walks and a young reserve OF to likely increasingly spell Ibanez). Done and done.

That is why I was really impressed with Amaro on that deal. It addressed short and intermediate needs while doing so at a reasonable dollar level and asking price.

"I'd take him," the official says. "I mean, it's not like you'd be running the risk of an arm injury because it's not exactly power stuff. For him, it's about feel. And as long as he shows he's still got that feel for pitching, why not?
From Stark's Rumbling and Grumblings on Moyer today:

"To me, he'd be a great fit for a team like Washington. Get him around Stephen Strasburg and some of those young guys, and they couldn't have a better role model."

We can't forget, though, that Moyer is guaranteed at least $6.5 million next season -- a figure that would grow to at least $8 million if Moyer makes three more starts and works another 30 2/3 innings."

What GM in their right mind would trade for Moyer even if he is making $6.5M next year and possibly $8M as a base? They would have to be nuts.

My bet is another team wouldn't even touch Moyer via trade unless the Phils were willing to eat at least half of his salary next year.

"My bet is another team wouldn't even touch Moyer via trade unless the Phils were willing to eat at least half of his salary next year."

Makes sense to me. He'll bring his experience, but not sure why else any team would want him next year.

If I've heard correctly, Mitchie-Poo is the color analyst tonight on the network.

From the last thread:

donc, that line about settling it at recess was a classic!!!!!!!!!!


I almost had a stroke.

I was checking the batting stats and I noticed that the the Gnome's batting average is lower than Cliff Lee, Brett Myers, Chad Durbin, Jamie Moyer, Colbert Hamels and Chan Ho Park. What a disgrace, to be hitting worse than half your pitching staff.

We should argue other prediction questions. Here's a few burning questions.

Will Bruntlett end up above or below .200?

Will Brunlett get 20 hits in 2009?

Will Bruntlett get one home run in 2009?

Will Lidge get his ERA below 6.50?

Bed Beard -

If the Marlins were smart they would trade for Moyer ..... that's probably a ~5 game move in the standings right there.

Lake Fred: Could you imagine if Rollins or Utley got hurt going into the world series and Bruntlett somehow hit 3 bombs and stole a crucial base or something and ended up the WS MVP. Could you imagine how hilarious that would be? Of course, it would be hilarious only after we were all dead of heart attacks from Rollins or Ultey getting hurt being replaced by Bruntlett.

We thought moyer pitched with a chip on his shoulder the other night, wait until he pitches AGAINST the phillies!

dumb work blocked cot's website.

How long do we have benfran under control?

I dont think people realize how hard spot starting once a week and pinch hitting is. Now, I am not giving excuses for how Bruntlett, Stairs, and Dobbs have been playing but if you look around the league there are not a lot of Super Subs out there. Bruntlett just happens to be the worst of the worst.

MG & BedBeard, right now, the Phillies have 5 starting pitchers under contract(or option) for 2010:

Lee
Hamels
Happ
Blanton (last yr of arb)
Moyer

IMHO, Pedro and Myers will not be back, as Myers will be able to make more money elsewhere, and so will Pedro.

So, there being no guarantees that there will be any prospect that will make the staff next season, I IMO I don't see Moyer getting traded, at least not until they see what they have in ST.

What are the chances of Drabek getting a shot in ST like CC had this year?

CJ, I wonder in Francisco was really a "throw in", or Ruben and Co. targeted him as part of the deal.

They knew they needed help.

They could have asked for both Lee and Francisco, and as soon as Shapiro agreed to make them both available it was a matter of what it would cost them in prospects.

OTOH, Shapiro could have asked for the 4 guys he got, and Ruben could have said, "No, too much, but throw in BenFran and you have a deal".

My point is Ruben may have outright asked for him in the up front, as opposed as him being a throw in.

It would be interesting to find out.

Isn't that basically the same thing?

Slugga, who knows, but they may want him at AAA to start the year.

He may not necessarily be ready, which is why I think they'll keep Jamie around.

awh: Right, I didn't mean to imply that Amaro didn't want or seek Francisco. I meant to suggest that many people likely overlook that part of the deal, especially considering how widly successful Lee has been. I'm sure Amaro looked at this and saw an opportunity to fill a crucial need. Great trade.

A friend of mine was at Drabek's start on Friday night. He said some scouts or Reading Phils guys or something were sitting right behind him. They said that Drabek had just been put on a strict pitch count. Hence the short outing getting pulled I think in the middle of the fourth. A lot of posters have been expecting him not to finish the season as a way to protect his arm. Sounds like that is what will happen. These guys also told my buddy that Drabek has been getting pounded by left handed batters to the tune of something like .340 but he owns righthanders. Anybody know about the trouble with lefties part?

We should send Bruntlett to somewhere like Pittsburgh or the Mets where he can play every day. I think he could start for the Mets for the rest of the year.

CJ, agreed!

Good topic for the post, and I was actually thinking the same thing this morning; the bench and the bullpen haven't seen action since Sunday. When's the last time that the supporting cast has gotten that much time off during the regular season, not counting the AS Break?

I'll probably be accused of counting chickens here, but I think if the division lead stays around 5 or increases to 6 or 7, Cholly should start looking ahead to the post-season and resting starters sporadically. Ibanez needs rest, Vic could probably stand to rest his legs...even Bruntlett for Utley on occasion (sorry, there's no other option).

In any case, Dobbs needs a SIGNIFICANT upgrade in ABs if he's going to be a big contributor in the playoffs. He's just rotting on the bench right now. Feliz is solid, but he's not good enough to keep Dobbs from getting no PT whatsoever.

Drabek's entry over at Minor league Splits.com

her name is yoshimi...

...she's a black belt in karate.

flaming lips references on beerleaguer, what's next?

Chuckles has done a AWFUL job using his bench this year. Hard to produce, no matter who you are, if you never play.

Hopefully in September, he finally starts to rest some guys and get some bench guys some AB's.

For those on the Benny Francisco bandwagon, here are some stats for you:

BF's first 28 AB's with Phils: 7 hits, 2 HR's, 4 RBI's and 11 K's.

Mayberry's first 28 AB's with Phils: 8 hits, 3 HR's, 7 RBI's and 8 K's.


Not saying Francisco isn't a upgrade, but truthfully, he hasn't been any better then RFD was.

RFD's production went down the tubes, when he became nailed to the bench. Same thing has happened to Stairs and Dobbs this year. The less they play, the worse they are. Hopefully, Francisco bucks that trend.

denny b - Your kidding right? Francisco is is a clear overall offensive upgrade from Mayberry who was exposed pretty badly over time.

+1 denny b.

but francisco is a way cooler name than mayberry.

There's a reason bench players are bench players. Especially ours. If we ever need them to win games for us, we're probably in trouble. I'm all for dust.

Cliff Lee seems to be able to hit just fine after years of gathering dust.

this season is over
let's hope the nationals blow
so we don't finish last

there's your Mets haiku right there.

answering my own question, francisco is under team control til 2013.

I like that one sdphillie. Here's another:

The worst part for us
There is no one to dance with
Since Reyes got hurt

Drabek is still having major issues with LHB...till he figures that out, he's not going anywhere above AA.

thephightins:

Cot's blocked at your work? Here's what you do:
- Go to yahoo
- Search for "Phillies Contracts"
- (Cot's will be the first result)
- Click on "Cached"

My work blocks blogspot blogs, as well.

"Not saying Francisco isn't a upgrade, but truthfully, he hasn't been any better then RFD was."

Mayberry: .685 OPS
Francisco: .833 OPS

Not only do the Phillies get to miss Johann Santana in NY, but the Braves get him today? Double bonus.

I'm looking forward to the Braves and the Marlins beating up on one another this weekend.

(Doing my best Scooby Doo cartoon impression)

And I would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for Klaus and those confounding stats!

yo, new thread.

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