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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Comments

Repost from last thread:

Interesting about the inter-organizational conflict. If I were Rube, I would listen to the old heads. They know that winning a WS is tough to do. Winning multiples, even tougher. An opportunity like this doesn't come along very often.

Drabek, Brown and Donald. Do it Rube.

Our favorite little Stanford grad needs to do 3 things:

1. remember last night when moyer loaded the bases up and imagine it was vs the dodgers in the playoffs

2. clean up the dookie he just made in his pants after that image

3. Call J.P. up and steal the best player in baseball

From everything I've read, both Taylor and Brown are consumate professionals and great kids with great attitudes. I'm not sure which one I'd be willing to give up more than the other. Taylor is beating expectations, even after they rise. Brown has already shown that he is something special. I guess the one thing to consider is that Taylor is probably at least one year closer to the big leagues, and we probably won't need an outfielder til 2011. From that standpoint, I may rather trade Taylor.

I'm sitting out the Halladay conversation because I can't develop a solid opinion (not for the lack of trying), but I don't understand the argument that we are built to win. Considering the relative youth and generally cheap contracts of the core players, and the newfound depth of the farm, we seem more built for the long term than most teams. Yes, many of the core player contracts are up by 2012, but we only have $27m + Hamels' last arb year (so add ~$18m) on the books that year, and we'll still have Uts for two more seasons. If the FO plays it right, they resign a one or two core players and fill it out with whatever's left of today's Halladay bait and free agent signings, in that order. Seems to me they are without a doubt set to contend beyond this player generation. Of course, a Halladay deal will change the landscape.

I like p. red's trade suggestion, sure it's expensive but it gets it done.

Here's to hoping Cholly and Pat win this battle.

On a game related subject, but who else is really looking forward to tonight's affair? Hamels vs. Haren has the potential for an excellent pitcher's duel.

Of course Rueben would rather not trade the prospects. As things stand now the Phillies will remain contenders for years to come, meaning Amaro remains employed.

Winners seize the opportunity. Losers rely on hope and debate practicality.

Reading that SI story makes me think the Phillies would be insane not to trade for Halliday.

I'm doing a 180 and drinking the koolaide. trade the kids and get the ace.

Just imagine the pressure on Drabek if he's kept over Halliday. If the guy doesn't become a cy young winner he'll be unfairly considered a bust. Not to mention Dominic Brown will need to be Barry Bonds out there (1993 version not necessarily 2001) to justify keeping him.

I think the Drabek/Brown/Donald trade satisfies Ricciardi's desire to get some serious blue-chip prospects back AND gives him what could be a useful piece in Donald when Scutaro leaves.

He doesn't get a ML ready pitcher, but do the Jays really feel they're in it this year, anyway? Especially without Halladay? That's just more posturing.

Casey, RE "Considering the relative youth and generally cheap contracts of the core players, and the newfound depth of the farm, we seem more built for the long term than most teams."

The only core player who will be under 30 to start next year is Hamels, who as a pitcher is hard to project. I'm going both ways on this, and I can find great arguements on either side.

1) Our core players are aging and we need to try to win now.
2) Our core players are aging and we need to think about the future.

I can't decide which was I would go, but as a fan I'm probably more inclined to trade than not.

In Ruben's defense, why would he be anywhere other than on the development side of things? That's the only position he can take if he wants the best deal.

So its the 80 year old ex-Phil/ex-Jay GM + the 80 year old manager vs. the young GM who would like to hang around for a while.

It's utterly stunning that Cholly doesn't want to ensure a steady supply of rookie talent, while Rube doesn't want to go for broke and maybe get Gillick another WFC.

I like our chances with a postseason 4 of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, and (fingers crossed) Pedro.

It's obvious the Jays will walk if KD is not in the deal. There has to be a compromise there somewhere. Let them have KD but lessen the other players.

Dan: I was on the fence as well but I'd be happier if they did the deal. Let's go all in now for 09' and 10' and lets face it, by 11' their going to be talking about moving some of our stars for prospects, so we'll get the prospects back.

Trade Trade Trade!

I have season tix and if we make the playoffs I can sell off some of the less-desirable games to make up the cost. Who cares about the future.

Win now. Three, four, five years from now this team is going to look pretty different, and the veterans who are performing so well now that would surround these young guys will be needing walkers by then (oh, wait a minute ... one of those veterans already has a walker).

Win now. Win now. Win now.

I still don't get the logic behind "our core is old, therefore we must sacrifice our future". There is room for compromise. Trade Carrasco, Donald & Carpenter for Zach Duke, who is pitching well and under contract through 2011.

PHIinBK,

Conversely, Rube would appear a genius if Halladay breaks down in a year and our prospects go on to do well.

Re: "Drabek, Brown and Donald. Do it Rube."

Done Deal. Wholeheartedly agree, its time to get er done, trade for Doc, and be WFC again.

ozark - i like our chances with a postseason 4 of Halladay, Hamels, Lee, and Blanton. That would be a nice critical mass of pitchers.

I just looked up the 6/29 game in Toronto versus the Rays. Doc was starting. You know what the attendance was? 15,665. The next night, with Richmond pitching, it was 15,447. The next night was Canada Day with Ricky Romero pitching, and attendance was 30,553. So tell me why BJ's mgmt wants to pay Doc $16MM next year instead of paying Kyle Drabek $300K next year?

This deal gets done. Count on it.

Cholly, put Rueben in a headlock and got at him like he's Eskin until he does the trade.

Dan, fair point, but two things: to nitpick, Victorino will also be under 30, but
more to the point, of the starting offense only Ibanez will be over 31. We're a bit older on the mound, but it ain't exactly an old team. And again, as of this minute, we have a deep farm system.

curt - Why? Do you think Cholly will still be the manager of this team in another 3-4 years? He is just as likely to retire given that his age is creeping up there a bit and he will be get close to 70.

If we do end up getting Halladay prior to tomorrow's game, would he get the start?

Put me in the Cliff Lee column.
I think he serves the same purpose (playoffs) and comes at a much more palatable price.

Is this really that surprising that Cholly and Gillick would be in favor of "winning now" given that both guys likely won't have to deal with the future of the club in 3-4 years?

Casey - The Phils aren't a young team. Their core guys (with the exception of Hamels) are either in their peak years or slightly past them.

I've changed my mind. Keep Drabek. Look at the pictures on SI.com main site. Drabek looks calm cool and collected and Halladay looks like he's...special.

I'm not serious but it is just as arbitrary as some of the other reasons stated on here.

Sure it sounds great to say we could have this for that. Or let's do this cheaper, or what if so and so blows up and is a stud or what if Halladay falls apart.

mg - it was sarcasm. Obviously Cholly won't be around long, and he can't stand rookies anyway.

If I was Rube, I would get a "get out of jail free" card from Cholly & Gillick (think of the end of "Clear and Present Danger"), meaning written documentation from the two that they will defray future responsibility if the deal doesn't work out well. I know that won't help him with the fans, but it should with Monty & the ownership group. That way he won't feel like he has all the risk without an equitable share in the possible reward.

i have a feeling that this aint happening unless ruben caves

I'm not so sure that Cliff Lee costs less. Any deal for him will involve Kyle Drabek, too, according to multiple RUMINT sources.

With Happ out of the deal, Amaro has to pull the trigger. Someone made the point the other day that Drabek's AA stats are identical to (if not worse than) Adam Eaton's AA stats at the same age. 'Nuff said. Drabek (and Brown, Taylor, Donald, etc.) are wishes and hopes. Roy Halladay is a known commidity (the best pitcher in baseball). Drabek/Brown/Donald and if they need a throw-in, give it to them and wrap this deal up.

Interesting phillies tidbits on the pharm/Halladay...

http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2009/07/midday_trade_co.html#more


Re. Lee, Cliff. Anyone concerned about adding another lefty starter as opposed to the righty (or do I mean rightie) Halladay?

MPN: Agreed, Cleveland wants Drabek for Lee. Lee is a step below. If you part with Drabek, get Halladay.

clout always talks about BL conventional wisdom being almost always wrong.

In this case, with a couple of exceptions, the conventional wisdom says "make the trade". Interesting.


It's also the conventional wisdom among the sports media that the Phillies "ought" or "need" to trade for Halladay in order to have a better chance during the playoffs.


I just thought I'd point that out.

Regarding the company that owns the Jays:

TORONTO (AP) -- The company that owns the Toronto Blue Jays says it needs to control costs.

CEO Nadir Mohamed said Tuesday on a conference call discussing Rogers Communications' quarterly earnings that the company remains committed to the Blue Jays.

The team has put ace Roy Halladay on the trading block.

Rogers Media president Tony Viner says the club is doing better financially than last year but needs to bring costs more in line with revenues.

Rogers bought the Blue Jays in 2000. The company also owns the team's stadium and its flagship radio and television stations.

Halladay will earn $15.75 million next season and has indicated a desire to test the free agent market. The Blue Jays' 2009 payroll is approximately $80 million.

Lee will cost nearly as much as Halladay. If you're gonna get a guy - get Halladay. He's the guy you want paired with Cole.

Joel Sherman has a new story saying the Rangers are very involved. Can't see it happening there...but they've got some damn good prospects to give. Ugh.

C'mon Rube!

MG, I didn't say they're a young team; I said they're not an especially old team and that I don't consider them to be "built to win."

Putting it another way, if I was an assistant GM and today I was given a choice of the team I'd like to take over in 2013, the Phils would be among the finalists.

I have also been riding the fence on this one leaning side to side from day to day. I finally fell off the fence and landed on the get Halladay side and do it today. Please end the misery. Trades are always a crapshoot, but this one is about as sure as it gets. As for the prospects, they may be great down the road, or maybe not. If they are, good for them, if the trade gets us to the WS good for us and no complaints. I do believe we need an Ace at top of the rotation. Halladay fits that bill and unless Ruben also trades Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, and Knapp for Lee, we still have some kids with an upside. As Cholly would say, "Get'er done."

Put yourself in Rube's shoes. If he does this deal, here are two possible outomes.

1. World Series the next two years - He will share credit with Charlie and Gillick, as it is just a continuation of what they began

2. No world series and in three years, the team has to rebuild, and Drabek & Brown are All stars. He is lambasted for doing the deal. He will be the face of it, and Gillick and Cholly won't have to take any responsibility.

If they take Happ out of the deal, you do it. End of discussion.

The Rogers Centre was dead for the Phillies series. I'd say a good 15% of the crowd were Phillies camp followers, like me and my buddies. Of course the Rogers Centre is sort of in a weird hybrid zone between the old cookie cutter multi-sport stadiums and the Camden Yards model. On top of that, you have to go out of your way to find a Canadian beer there.... most of the concessions were Bud and Bud Lite with an occasional stand to buy Alexander Keiths or Stella Artois.

Unlike Toronto, Cleveland seems willing to accept quantity over quality. If you can get Cliff Lee without giving up Happ, Drabek or Brown, you take that deal. Carrasco, Knapp, Taylor, Donald, Worley for Cliff Lee.

By the way, for those of you living in the Bay Area, there are very affordable tix to the weekend series. Just bought $9 upper deck tix on Sat night (Lincecum start, use the code GIANTSK) and $30 lower box tix for Sunday night (Hamels start, use the code THANKS).

Hope to hear lots of LetsGoPhils in SF.

"Put yourself in Rube's shoes"

You mean the guy who actually gets to make the decision? What a wierd idea.

Reposted from end of last thread (I didn't realize we were into a new thread).

Mike Cunningham gave the best reason to want Halladay when he wrote: "I wanted Halladay because I didn't want ANYONE else to have him."

I don't want the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Fish or Muts getting anyone good. In fact using that reasoning, I think that after getting Halladay, we should trade whatever prospects are left to Cleveland and pick up Cliff Lee. Bleep the rest of the MLB teams.

Iceman: You and I are finally in complete agreement.

Any of you guys fans of Baseball Prospectus? I haven't spent much time on their site, but was looking at the playoff odds report (PECOTA adjusted) link (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php).

I don't understand the nuance of the adjustment yet. It is interesting because they project the Phis to win 91 games and project the Braves to win 90 games.

They have all the other races, except the Angels and the Dodgers, ending within a game or so.

Zolecki seems too think that Lee is the better bet right now, and that the possibility of getting Halladay is diminishing.

I would like to register my lack of support for a trade for Zach Duke. Who is he replacing in our rotation? Happ is better than him.

Either get a clear difference maker or don't bother. As for Halladay and the types of packages being talked about, I'm fine with whatever decision they make. Won't complain either way.

At 4:01 PM on Friday, no matter what happens, I plan on having a Yuengling or three. Or seven. I don't care that I'll be at work.

rolo: Zolecki's blog post was posted at noon yesterday. You get the impression from the reporting on SI that things have changed since then.

Stark's latest concludes that both Amaro and Ricciardi are in a position where they have to do everything they can to get a deal done. I tend to agree.

One interesting point Stark raises is that JP may be satisfied with the Phils' offer, but is willing to wait until the deadline to see if the Phils panic and up the ante, or another team swoops in with a better offer.

J.R.

Here's a link to Stark's latest, via MLBTR:


Pressure building on Amaro, Ricciardi

I wouldn't want to be Ruben right now.

How much of this frenzy is the media picking up any rumor they can find and building a story around it and how much is based on actually getting info from legitimate sources?

90% to 10%, maybe.

The Halladay trade back-and-forth comes down to little more than probabilities: is the probability of a 2009/2010 Phillies team including Halladay more or less likely than a 2011/2012/2013 team to win the World Series? No reasonable person can argue the latter if for no other reason than the latter scenario involves commodities that are not known whereas we know very well what we're getting from the former.
Amaro may not favor the trade because it puts the responsibility on his shoulders for the years 2011 on. As it stands, his predecesors have built the car he's currently driving. He should be thinking about putting his stamp on another Series win by making this trade.

Lee would probably cost 1 top prospect -- say Drabek. Hallday would cost Drabek & Brown. That's a big difference but, at the same time: (1) Taylor's presence at AAA substantially mitigates the effect of losing Brown; and (2) the difference between Lee & Halladay is vast.

Here's the stat that concerns me about Lee: .278. That's what opposing hitters are hitting off him. That means he is getting hit fairly hard, but is pitching his way out of it (largely by not yielding homeruns or walks). That's commendable but, nonetheless, a guy who is being hit at a nearly .280 clip is not my definition of an ace. An ace is someone who dominates opposing lineups.

Don't get me wrong. Lee would be a good addition if we can't get Halladay. But if we're going to give up Drabek anyhow, I'd sure rather have Halladay.

Shane the whole decision is arbitrary.

Hope to win a world series after 2010 or hope to win a world series before 2010.


I don't envy Rube, either. Very difficult position to be in. I agree with everything he's done up to this point in negotiations.

However, if he passes up on Halladay because of reluctance to part with Drabek (and was offered a deal w/out Happ included), he will have failed this test miserably.

Petey: "One interesting point Stark raises is that JP may be satisfied with the Phils' offer, but is willing to wait until the deadline to see if the Phils panic and up the ante, or another team swoops in with a better offer."

IMHO, that is exactly what is going on.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4360856

Article from ESPN about Brett Meyers talking about returning to the 'pen. That would be a huge boost for the playoffs.

This whole situation reminds me of the office episode where Dwight interviews Andy to be his "number 2":

Dwight: "You aren't doing so well"

Andy: "Yes. But on the other hand wouldn't you say I'm doing great?"

Rube's in the same position. People have already made up their mind about the job he's done, long before they see what he did or didn't do (who he traded or didn't trade). All evaluation is subjective.

That's a really long way of saying: Rube can't win and it sucks to be in his shoes.

What number will Roy wear when he's here?

I'm not so sure I buy any report that says Rube deems Drabek untouchable.

His actions in the off-season were pretty clear: build a three-year window to win another WFC. He did that successfully.

To not capitalize on a chance to add the best pitcher in baseball for 1.5 of those seasons because of a reluctance to part with someone who will only significantly contribute AFTER that window is over just doesn't make any business sense at all.

If we find out after this is over that we didn't get Halladay because of Rube being gun-shy about losing Drabek, I will be absolutely shocked.

So if your the Jays, do you pitch Halladay tomorrow?

Do you risk possible injury (could be something as freaky as an ankle or a line drive) for one last start?

And put me in the camp of willing to give up more for Halladay as opposed to less for Lee.

bap: Regarding the cost of Halladay, Don McKee reported that a source stated that JP is likely to be willing to settle for either Happ/Brown + others or Drabek/Taylor + others.

Haven't seen this reported anywhere else, but food for thought for sure.

George: I hope 9 or 10 is available, because he won't be here in 11'. =) That's ok though.

has anyone mentioned the possibility that the phills as a team will be deflated a little if they don't get halladay. they all know about the rumors and all must have thought about how good they would be with him. if they don't get him it will take some wind out f their sails.

Rolo (if that is his real name): "It's also the conventional wisdom among the sports media that the Phillies "ought" or "need" to trade for Halladay in order to have a better chance during the playoffs."

Given that Halladay does give the Phillies a better chance, and that in order to have him we "need" to make a trade, I'd say that statement's 100 percent true.

I want to second clout's contention last thread, that the player the Phillies will most regret is Brown. Darryl Strawberry without the ruinous drug habit: just the sort of outfielder I like!

gobaystars: I haven't seen anyone mention it, but it is a valid point. John Kruk actually mentioned something similar on ESPN when he said back in 1993 the Phils were rumored to be in on a Randy Johnson deal, and when the Phils didn't get him at the deadline, it was disappointing to them.

Turns out it didn't cause them to lose a lot of games, but probably could have helped them in the postseason. Perhaps.

MLBTR:

1:57pm: Yahoo's Gordon Edes reports that the Red Sox offered Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Ryan Westmoreland to the Blue Jays for Halladay.

Have I ever mentioned before how much I detest the Red Sox?

How does that package compare to anything the Phillies have and can we still compete with that offer? Obviously, Buchholz is closer to competing at the MLB level, but I don't know about the other prospects.

Being a lifelong phillies fan here is the most likely scenario: Phils trade Drabek, Brown and Happ for Halladay. Halladay has a bad game in playoffs, Lidge blows another and Halladay is booed at home when phils elimiated.Because of booing doc wants to be traded next season. He is in a Curt Schilling/Rolen type deal. Drabek and Brown go on to be perennial all stars in Toronto.

doubleh: that deal is comparable to phillies if not a bit below but because they are in the same division the blue jays would want more. (Daniel Bard etc...)

I would love for Toronto to throw in Scutero to replace Bruntlet he would: 1) be the right handed bat off the bench, 2) Give a blow to Rollins and Utley down the stretch,and 3) give us a draft choice when he leaves next year as a type A free agent.

blimey -2 AM - When Ruben tries to sleep -your post will be on a continuous loop in his head.
Somehow Jack Nicholson will be featured.

Bowden and Westmoreland are their # 4 & 6 ranked prospects.

I agree with Iceman and a number of others on here. I have gone back and forth on this thing so many times I feel like I have forefitted my right to bitch, no matter what happens. This is an utterly fascinating situation. Also agree with Clout. I think Stark's assertation that it'll go to the wire because of the possibility of a last second swoop in, is correct. The only way the Jays get screwed by waiting til the deadline is if the Phils get antsy and turn to someone else at the last minute. This is awesome theatre. I'll bet I've eaten 100 Tums in the last week. Amaro and Ricciardi probably have started work on ulcers at this point.

Either one of those deals that McKee mentions would be good for the Phillies. They get to keep a big bat, and a big arm plus get the big ace they covet.

I'd sort of prefer Happ/Brown + prospects because Drabek/Taylor gives up two guys that have outisde shots of being on the roster next season. Either way though I'd be ok with the deals.

I'm sure it has been mentioned here previously, but with the Jays kicking off a series against Oakland on Friday, and the Phils facing off against the Giants starting Thursday, Rube and JP can have all hands on deck for the final hours of deception, pandering, whining, tweaking and, of course, hand-shaking.

I think the fact that the Sox are seriously involved, our chances of getting Halladay are inching towards zero. Buchholz is a better prospect than anyone we have, and Bowden has some pretty good stats and was their #2 prospect according to BA. In addition, they have more to offer than we do if they want to, and may even be able to take back a bad contract.

Not only that, but this also most likely gets the Yankees involved.

All in all, I see this driving the price up (in terms of prospects) and the Phillies bailing out of the race. It may be time to turn our attention to Lee, but here's hoping Rube can work some magic and still get Roy.

Yes, and the Phils and Jays are staying in the same hotel in SF.

Deutchse: Not only that but the two teams are staying at the same hotel. Halladay wouldn't even need to switch rooms!

JUST DO IT ALREADY!!

OK now I feel better. :)

I can't believe the Jays would give him to the Sox.

Just reading some blogs and man, the Blue Jays fans are just as delusional as we are.

One fan says we had better throw in Drabek because Happ is garbage and Carrasco is questionable. He says Drabek and Brown along with Knapp and Taylor and he'll be happy.

This fan needs to seek a psychologist.

If a deal like this were to ever happen, Ruben should be fired on the spot.

Anyone else worried about the Red Sox stealing Halladay?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4359405>Source: Trade Talks 'Not Going Well'

I still say if the Blue Jays want Drabek AND Happ, they're crazy. Also, does Ricciardi remind anyone else of the http://media.photobucket.com/image/ice%20age%20%25252B%20squirrel/xiaoyenzi2/movie/scrat.jpg>tweaked out squirrel from 'Ice Age'?

Wait, you say that Stark is suggesting that JP is satisfied with the current deal and is just waiting? What is the current deal?

We're going to have to give up Drabek here. I say Drabek/Taylor/Donald and if that doesn't work, exchange Taylor for Brown. That's a fair trade and isn't mortgaging our future too much.

BaySlugga: It's a possibility. But I really think Ricciardi doesn't want to have to do that. Their offer isn't that much better than Drabek, Brown, and Donald. It might up the Phils urgency on this deal a bit, but I still think that if the Phils want to they would get a chance at matching that offer.

PS What's up with your blog? It's been down all day.

Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Ryan Westmoreland is a much better offer than Drabek, Happ and Brown.

I was worried that the Sox would get involved, and unfortunately we're at that point now. The best we can hope for is that the BJ's are using the Sox for leverage...

Bay Slugga: Extremely worried.

Verducci's story references the Blue Jays going for broke in acquiring Jack Morris and Paul Molitor. What it fails to mention is that Toronto hasn't won anything since.

No to Halladay.

G-Town: Talk about a misleading headline. It says "Talks Not Going Well" and then during the interview Stark says he thinks it will get done and the Phillies will get Halladay.

I've been dubious about the whole can't trade him inside the division thing since the start. Certainly, the Jays would rather avoid trading Halladay to the Sawx or Yankees. But if that's where you get the best return that's where you have to send him (assuming you are dead set on trading him and we can debate that til doomsday). I know they supposedly want a premium to deal him inside the division, but I wouldn't think the Red Sox would play that game. Besides it's an even money bet that Halladay will be a Red Sox or a Yankee after next season anyway. You're probably going to have to seem him in the division sooner rather than later. So take the best deal even if it is from Boston.

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