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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Comments

It seems like the Phillies can get Halladay and keep Happ, Taylor, Marson, and Donald if they give up some combination of Drabek, Brown and Knapp. Whether or not that's a good deal, it'd be strange to see them give up all of their long term prospects and keeping all of their short term prospects.

Drabek and Brown is who they wanted all along. Add in Donald and I bet it gets done. It's a fair deal.

Good Job Ruben. Happ isn't the next roy halladay, and drabek will possibly be ten times the pitcher, but we need Happ to win now.

Could it go down today? If JP actually called Ruben and said "you can leave out happ" then i think this is a done deal.

Exciting... but it could still end in heartache.

From the last thread:

Worley was projected as a RH bullpen piece with a Scot Shields type upside when drafted last year.

He started off hot this year but has scuffled of late (18.00+ ERA last 3 starts). He has 4 decent but no GREAT pitches. Low 90s fastball.


On the Halladay deal, I think it will get done and we'll be out Drabek, Brown, Donald and another lesser piece (not Carrasco).

I'd be very happy with that deal...and I'd get to still follow Drabek as I get a good number of Toronto home games on TV up here.

i was just reading verducci's column, and he said you may be able to have them pick between drabek and knapp. Drabek, Taylor, Donald, and 2 more prospects? Or Knapp, brown, Donald, happ? Maybe?

So we're dealing our top pitching prospect and our top hitting prospect along with a lesser piece for Roy Halladay?

I'm fine with that.

We keep Happ and Carrasco for cheap young rotation pieces for the next couple of years. We keep Taylor and Marson who could help our club as early as next year.

Sign me up.

I'd give up Knapp over Drabek in a second. The success rate of hard-throwing 18 year old prospects is so low its laughable. Toss in his still somewhat rough delivery and he's got TJ surgery written all over him. Of course, he COULD be the next Lincecum too.

I would do Drabek, Brown and Donald for Halladay. I honestly think it's fair for both sides. Please please please make it happen.

And... if the Jays get Drabek and Brown, JP can save face by saying he got the Phils top pitching and hitting prospects. That's a good haul for them.

I think Drabek, Brown/Taylor and Donald will get it done.

...and I will be pleased with that deal.


I'm not sure what day on the Halladay watch it is. But nearly every day it seems I switch my allegiance on this trade. I was for the trade on Sunday. Which surpised my Dad because 2 weeks before I talked my Dad out of his excitement for a halladay possibility. "Knowing what you know now... would have you have traded Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard 4 years ago?"

I'm not saying Drabek or Brown are Hamels and Howard. But they both have potential to be those types of players.

Sunday however, I wanted Halladay because I didn't want ANYONE else to have him. And how can you NOT want Halladay? If he's not the best pitcher in the league he's the number 3 pitcher in the whole darn league. And why let anyone else jump ahead of you. It didn't hurt that the Cardinals made some nice moves to augment their lineup and now look to be a force heading to the playoffs (even though we took 2 of 3, that lineup is scary, Phillies-scary). You need a Halladay to keep teams like the Cardinals or the Dodgers at Bay. You need a guy to face the Yankees or the Red Sox in the World Series. That's it done deal.

Today, I'm coveting Drabek and Brown again. I really covet Michael Taylor above all, i think he's going to be special. Chase Utley special.

But that's the risk with baseball. There is little risk with standing pat or going the Blanton-type route with this team. You still have holes on the bench and the bullpen that Roy Halladay is just NOT going to fix. But we have a very good shot at making the playoffs and winning at least one series. And will have a similar opportunities in 2010 (perhaps Drabek is ready to roll next year for the big club? perhaps Taylor is too? And we have a 2006 Red Sox kind of run.)

Remember when all we had to worry about at the trade deadline was getting a Kyle Lohse type of player or not. Much easier to deal with.

Brown could very well be in their outfield by the 2nd half of 2010 as he will be in AA shortly and is a top talent. He'd already be in AA if not for the wrist injury.

Drabek would probably be given a shot at their 5th spot in the rotation next Spring.

Donald would be on their 25 man by the end of the year too to start taking over for Scutaro as he's gone and John McDonald is a 25th man for them.

Perhaps we toss in a KK/Carpenter type guy that fills in as a spot starter for them?

Let's pull the trigger, I have been against betting the farm, but we will have Roy and Cole at the top of the rotation for at least the next 2 years and then we have young pitchers in the system coming up to fill in the back of the rotation or possibly the 'pen. The Verducci article says that Cholly and Gillick are saying let's do it but the scouts and Rube are hesitant to get rid of Drabek. I don't want to get rid of Drabek but I want another championship.

I was upset giving up Outman and Cardenas last year, but honestly, haven't thought about those guys at all, anymore. You give to get.

rube, make it happen!

Riccardi may have blinkedbut depending on what story we believe of Amaro's it may not matter.

Amaro reportedly said Drabek was untouchable. He then reportedly said no one is untouchable.

I said it a few weeks ago and I'll say it again- Drabek will be the one you regret trading. He has ace written all over him. Roy Halladay is a stud no doubt about it though. It is a tough call.

If the Blue Jays would do a deal with Knapp in place of Drabek I would be all over it. I think Drabek is the lynchpin to any deal though. If we give up Drabek though I'd rather trade Brown over Taylor.

Brown could be Ryan Howard, or he could be Marlon Byrd.

Kyle Drabek could be Cole Hamels, or he could be Gavin Floyd.

Roy Halladay IS Roy Halladay.

How do you NOT make this deal?

Drabek, Brown and Donald. Drabek, Brown and Donald. I really think this is gonna happen now.

Is it wrong that I'm shaking with excitement thinking about Roy Halladay in red pinstripes?

NEPP, I think the Phils would have to play 4 outfielders for Brown to be out there next season.

plus if halladay walks in 2010 i would think you would get 2 first rounders ,am i correct on this?

For those who keep/kept bringing up Haren as a target:

"Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren will not be traded, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. A D'Backs official put it bluntly: "We're not trading him. We don't want to change our core."

****NEPP, I think the Phils would have to play 4 outfielders for Brown to be out there next season. ****

I meant in Toronto's OF, not Philly. As they are rebuilding, they can afford to have a prospect learn on the job so to speak.

They'll wind up with Wasburn. Just who we don't need. I say if it's close to being done, for Drabek, Brown, Donald and maybe 1 more lower-level guy not named Knapp, then go for it.

I sadi it would be difficult, and I'm all for keeping Happ, so let's hope Rube pulls the trigger. I agree with Manuel, get the horse and win now.

Rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer and Happ well I'm fine with that. Get the RH bat somewhere too.

If all we get is Washburn I'm gonna be pissed. I'll soon be 51. I want to see another WS apearance or 2 and soon.

Interesting dynamics:

"Meanwhile, SI's Tom Verducci weighs in. He talked to a scout who spoke of an organizational "tug of war" in Philly, with Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel pushing the win-now move for Doc while Ruben Amaro Jr. and other player development guys are reluctant to move top prospects."

Would you rather give up Drabek or Knapp and Happ? If you were Toronto, who would you rather get?

I get the impression that the Phils will try to deal Happ-Knapp-etc-etc first before offering to part with Drabek.

Yes, we would receive the first-round pick in 2011 of whoever signs Roy Halladay after 2010, as well as a sandwich pick at the end of the first round.

What's that picture of Richie Aprielle doing on there JW? What a weasley looking tool.

In another note:

Fan Confidence Rating at metsblog is now 19%. I would still short it if I could.

If I'm Toronto:

1. Drabek
2. Knapp
3. Happ

No question.

If I'm Rube (willingness to give up):

1. Knapp
2. Happ
3. Drabek

JR King: I would definitely do Happ, Knapp, Taylor/Brown and Donald, but we'll see if that's good enough for the Jays.

If I'm Rube, I say either that deal, or Drabek, Taylor, Donald and Carrasco.

Those are my two deals on the table, and that's what I'd put out there. Your choice, take it or leave it.

Glad to see my Drabek, Brown and Donald deal is getting support. I really think that is a fair deal all around.

Truth: Drabek isn't untouchable. That was Ruben doing some posturing. Drabek has to be in the deal or we won't get Halladay. I think Rube suspected that from the beginning but didn't want to give in too early.

If Drabek goes on to have a great career, good for him. Even if you told me right now that he would become an ace and be a Cy Young contender I would still do the deal because this team is built to win now, not 3 years from now. Remember, we are talking a chance at a dynasty people. Repeat champs. Maybe even three-peat. That is something very rare indeed.

Unless someone could guarantee me that Drabek is a 1st Ballot HOF, I do this deal.

If I guaranteed that Drabek was first ballot HoF, would you believe me?

We can stop including Carrasco in our trade discussions. He apparently "does nothing for them," according to SI.

As I stated last thread, the Jays are acting like they value Carrasco so low that they'd rather have Drabek-Brown rather than Drabek-Taylor-Carrasco. If that's the case, he has more value inside the organization than in a trade. The Phils have enough depth to take a chance on the risky player with a big upside like CC.

****If I guaranteed that Drabek was first ballot HoF, would you believe me?****

I'd need photos of your Delorean and Sports Almanac...

@ NEPP - I might even do it then...

Interesting about the inter-organizational conflict. If I were Rube, I would listen to the old heads. They know that winning a WS is tough to do. Winning multiples, even tougher. An opportunity like this doesn't come along very often.

Drabek, Brown and Donald. Do it Rube.

If the Phillies do that deal, it will be Brown they regret losing. Not Drabek.

No matter what the deal turns out to be, can we throw in Bruntlett for a bag of fungo bats?

How do we not do this deal? No one knows what the future holds. Prospect turns to suspect very quickly, very few guys project out to major league stardom. Halladay gives you the best shot to grab the brass ring in each of the next two years while the core of this team is intact and peaking. You have to take your shots while the window is open.

Jimmy is going to age, Cole could prove fragile, Drabek's elbow could explode ... anything. Win now.

Our favorite little Stanford grad needs to do 3 things:

1. remember last night when moyer loaded the bases up and imagine it was vs the dodgers in the playoffs

2. clean up the dookie he just made in his pants after that image

3. Call J.P. up and steal the best player in baseball

MG,
Metsblog confidence rating is what I call and STZ - Short to 0.

@mike : To some extent, though, he does fix the bullpen. If every fifth day he goes out and pitches 7+ (which he has done almost every time out), and he leaves with the kind of lead that ANY reliever can protect, that's a big burden off the pen.

We've been lucky cobbling together innings from a fifth (and sometimes fourth) spot in the rotation, and even still, the AS break didn't come a moment too soon for the relief corps. His innings pitched would make him a good deal at twice the ERA.

If this is Drabek and not both Happ and Drabek, let's do it up.

From everything I've read, bot Taylor and Brown are consumate professionals and great kids with great attitudes. I'm not sure which one I'd be willing to give up more than the other. Taylor is beating expectations, even after they rise. Brown has already shown that he is something special. I guess the one thing to consider is that Taylor is probably at least one year closer to the big leagues, and we probably won't need an outfielder til 2011. From that standpoint, I may rather trade Taylor.

new thread

I'm sitting out the Halladay conversation because I can't develop a solid opinion (not for the lack of trying), but I don't understand the argument that we are built to win. Considering the relative youth and generally cheap contracts of the core players, and the newfound depth of the farm, we seem more built for the long term than most teams. Yes, many of the core player contracts are up by 2012, but we only have $27m + Hamels' last arb year (so add ~$18m) on the books that year, and we'll still have Uts for two more seasons. If the FO plays it right, they resign a one or two core players and fill it out with whatever's left of today's Halladay bait and free agent signings, in that order. Seems to me they are without a doubt set to contend beyond this player generation.

I think with this trade or without the Phillies are going to have to reload for a year or two after the current window closes in 2011-2012. This team got lucky and hit big on a lot of low cost guys (Victorino & Werth especially) and that is just unlikely to happen again right away.

So according to Bedrosian's Beard's news story nj- dawg and dlhunter both look like idiots:one says that old baseball mentors don't exist and one swears you need to heed their opinions! Just get the pitcher here. I am too old for this sh!t.

"So we're dealing our top pitching prospect and our top hitting prospect along with a lesser piece for Roy Halladay?

I'm fine with that."

I'm not. If Halladay was 29 and had 3 years on his contract? Ok I'd do it. He IS 32 and we would get MAYBE 50 starts out of him.

I'd trade Knapp/Happ/Brown/Donald for Halladay, but Drabek is off the table. If Toronto wants Drabek, they can forget about Happ or Brown.

If we gave up Happ for Halladay, who'd pitch game 4? More importantly, who would pitch 2? Cole hasn't looked like himself all year and shows no sign of improvement. I wouldn't be shocked if it turns out he's pitching hurt and ends up missing a significant part of next season. Then what happens to our window? Can we afford to give up Happ OR Drabek with Cole looking so shaky? They could very well form 40% of our 2010 rotation, at relatively no expense.

Again, put me in the Cliff Lee column.
Less expensive with the promise of the same result (play-offs).
Also saves some room (prospects?) for needed relief help - the O's George Sherill?
And some bench improvment.

Mike Cunningham gave the best reason to want Halladay when he wrote: "I wanted Halladay because I didn't want ANYONE else to have him."

I don't want the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Fish or Muts getting anyone good. In fact using that reasoning, I think that after getting Halladay, we should trade whatever prospects are left to Cleveland and pick up Cliff Lee. Bleep the rest of the MLB teams.

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