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Saturday, July 25, 2009

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Happ, drabek, and brown for halladay and downs??

Frasor is the one to get. I mentioned him a few threads ago. We need another strong RH reliever.

Also, Heyman tweeted today:

"i still think halladay's going to #phils. teams in "intense" talks. i dont have a timetable, but no way he stays."

But, of course, there are those on this list that have told us there's "no way" Halladay gets traded, so I suppose Heyman has no idea what he's talking about.

Repost:

Agreed about Happ. I don't have much of a problem including him as his value is sky high. Drabek I fully expected to be included from the get go, as well as one of Taylor/Brown.

I would love to see them make the deal as either Drabek or Happ, but if it is both, it is worth the gamble.

I would certainly offer one of our prospect below Drabek/Brown/Taylor for a bullpen arm. If Arizona wants Marson, Donald, Worley, Savery, or Stutes, etc. for Qualls, I would easily part with 1 of them, and probably 2.

Re-post

I love how attached some guys get to prospects. It's as if they want the club to just sit on prospects until they are 30 years old and never trade any away. They have a draft every year don't they?

I can also see the other side, from management's point of view. If the Phillies believe that Drabek, Brown, Taylor and Happ are their "Can not miss" prospects, and are surefire, day 1 starting position players, #2 and #3 pitchers that is a very valuable asset.

It cost the Phillies 30million to replace Pat Burrell with a comparable player. It will cost the Phillies at least that much to replace Werth, Ibanzez, Myers and Blanton. Brown, Taylor, Drabek and Happ allow the Phillies to replace those players for next to nothing over a 3 year period. If they trade 3 of those players, its like trading as much as 90 million to the Jays, because of the Free agency money they will have to spend to replace those positions.

It's not my money. Trade 'em.

Kart Racer, CJ: I agree with both of you and would love to see a package deal including either Frasor or Downs. Both are good bullpen arms and would certainly help soften the blow of the big package we are going to be giving up.

JW: I heard your interview this morning. Good work. Did I read somewhere that Scutaro may be a type A free agent? If that is the case, it is going to take some good prospects to pry him away becuase the Jays are in line for 2 first round picks for him. Also, I love the idea of both of your other options here. What type of prospects do you think we are looking at giving up for Willingham or Wiggington?

Good point on Scutaro - Would need to think about Wigginton. I wrote last week that I thought Kendrick and Mayberry would be a fair package for Willingham.

I believe Marco Scutaro will be a type A free agent. No? If so I don't see Toronto moving him.

JW - If the Nats want Kendrick and Mayberry for Willingham, I'd drive them down to Washington.

Brad said "Scutaro may be a type A free agent"

Scuturo stinks. Even if he is a Type A free agent, the Jays would non-tender him for fear of him accepting arbitration. His status is a non-factor.

JW said, "Would need to think about Wigginton. I wrote last week that I thought Kendrick and Mayberry would be a fair package for Willingham."

I'd do it. But, not sure the Phillies would want to pay the rest of his contract for the limited amount of playing time.

How much is he making this year? The Jays have no other SS so they may offer him arb. and if he accepts, so be it. I can't imagine he will get a ton of money through arbitration.

But regardless of their intentions, it is just a potential stumbling block, that is the only reason I mention it.

Scutaro's only making $1.9 million...even if he accepted arbitration, it wouldn't be prohibitive for them. Its not a Pat Burrell situation.

Anybody hear if there is a possibility of the Jays wanting to include Rios or Wells in the potential deal?

I wouldn't take either if you gave them to us. Neither would be a starter in our outfield and their contracts are brutal. Rios a bit less so since he's decent but Wells ain't going anywhere.

Also, how has Halladay fared against the Cardinals lineup (inlcluding Holiday). Reason for the question is I think we'll be facing them in NLCS. If Doc hasn't fared well against them in past, then his potential acquisition has a huge downside in my opinion.

I agree NEPP - was just curious if Jays might want to "stick us" with their baggage in this deal.

I wonder if the Phils will bring a fresh body up for the bullpen before today's game.

Halladay has a 17-9, 3.03 ERA against the NL in general.

Halladay vs. STL

1 GS, 1-0, 9 IP, 1 ER.

Sorry, 17-8, 3.02 ERA vs the NL...that's what I get for doing it off the top of my head.

JW: I wondered that myself. Unfortunately Cedrick Bowers has had a few rough outings of late...

Our top pitching prospect, our top hitting prospect, our hot rookie pitcher and another secondary prospect?

That is too high a price, IMO. That's the Blue Jays' high asking price. They'll come down from there.

Does anyone know anything about this Alex Concepcion kid who just got promoted to AAA? He doesn't strike out many, but has only surrendered 3 walks in 40+ innings. His GB/FO rate is 1.16 as a reliever, and 1.24 against righties.

Concepcion also started, the numbers above are his reliever numbers, but his combined numbers show that he's only walked 6 in 62.2IP, struck out 30, and had a WHIP of 0.958.

I'll take both our corner outfielders over Holliday any day of the week

I think the Jays could come down a bit in price...but not by very much.

They have the CY Young calibre pitcher. They have a franchise player, loved by their fans & coveted everywhere else. They have the guy who's dominating in a big league uniform & the guy who gives our team the best chance to win a championship.

I don't think they're going to come down very much. Doc's comments last night indicated he doesn't think a trades happening.

Halliday, on the other hand . . . we need to make that trade

Reading Stark: I wonder if the Phils put Knapp on the DL as a strategem to scare off the Jays... particular as they would know that they are going to lose either Drabek or Happ in a trade for Halladay.

i do think some perspective on prospects is needed. let's not forget that adam eaton was once a can't-miss prospect, the 11th overall pick in the draft. these guys have a lot of upside, but i think we often invest them with almost magical abilities because we haven't seen them fail yet. there's something exciting about raw potential, no doubt, but it also lends itself to fantastical thinking.

i say trade 'em. let's get halladay in here and go for the ring.

Jayson Stark echoes what I just said:

If the Blue Jays' asking price for Roy Halladay is J.A. Happ, top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek and high-ceiling outfield prospect Dominic Brown, the Phillies aren't buying.

But two baseball people familiar with the Phillies' thinking told ESPN.com on Saturday that that's not a deal the Phillies are willing to make.

More from Stark's article:

According to an executive of one team that has spoken with the Phillies' brass, the Phillies are adamantly opposed to giving up both Happ and Drabek. There are indications they would like to substitute pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco for one of those two, preferably in place of the highly regarded Drabek.

Blue Jays officials have told other clubs that Philadelphia still hasn't informed them it was unwilling to include both pitchers in a package for Holliday. But another source said the two sides are currently discussing "a list of seven or eight names" that will constitute the framework of a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 deal.


Drabek, Happ and Brown are on that list, along with Carrasco, outfielder Michael Taylor, catcher Lou Marson and shortstop Jason Donald. It's believed that hard-throwing Class A righthander Jason Knapp was also on the list at one time. But Knapp just went on the disabled list with "shoulder fatigue." So, according to one source, talk about him has "cooled."

Darn...I guess we'll just have to hang onto Knapp then.

I hate to do this but to gain some perspective on a prospect:

Here's two Age 21 seasons at AA Reading for comparison:

Player A

12 GS, 5-4, 2.92 ERA, 77 IP, 67 SO, 28 BB, 1.143 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.39 SO/BB

Player B

8 GS (9 G), 6-1, 3.12 ERA, 60.2 IP, 44 SO, 19 BB, 1.220 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.32 SO/BB


Note: Player A is Adam Eaton and Player B is Kyle Drabek.

If nothing else, balking over Happ shows the Phils regard him as a useful contributor to the roster now whereas he was jerked around last year and the victim of an unforeseen performance by Park in ST this year.

Would everyone be happy with a deal of Drabek, Carrasco, Brown & Donald?

That could very well end up being the final deal if we sub out Happ for 2 prospects.

Personally, while I'd miss Kyle and Dom, it'd be a deal I'd do as a Phillies GM.

NEPP: you never know what kind of a pitcher Eaton would have turned out to be if he was better at opening DVDs...

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/columns/top10/baseball_injuries.html#5

Cheap young pitching is hard to find. It's hard to see how the Phils won't dip into free agency for an extra starter if they get rid of both Carrasco and Drabek. It's sort of counterproductive to the homegrown model they have (seemingly) been cultivating.

For 2010:

Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Moyer

A good rotation for sure, but the insurance just won't be there. They'll need to get somebody else (a #4 or #5) and stash him in AAA.

Well paco, there are always plenty of Rodrigo Lopez's out there. Its a danger but we'd probalby have some emergency start guys available next year in the form of Stutes, Worley, Savery, etc. Granted they're not top talent but any of the 3 could probably handle a short emergency.

@NEPP: thanks for this.

we could probably make a similar comparison with michael taylor and wes chamberlain.

doesn't mean these prospects will fizzle too - just important to remember there's a long way for these guys to go. in the grand scheme of things, eaton and chamberlain had very successful pro baseball careers.

We would need to sign another Lopez-type, though, if possible - someone with some previous major-league success recovering from injury. Don't know I'd want more than a couple of starts out of Stutes/Worley/Savery - not what we need in the case of a prolonged need.

Its tough sometimes when you get wrapped up in how good we think/want our prospects to be. I'm a huge Kyle Drabek fan but it could very well happen that he doesn't pan out. The worst case scenario is you end up with a Bedard or Colon deal where all the pieces did work out and in startling fashion. Nobody in their right mind thought George Sherrill was anything but a throw-in for Bedard but he's been an AS closer for 2 straight years now. There were huge questions about Adam Jones and he's put them to rest in stunning fashion. Same with that Colon deal.

I'd hate to see that happen with any deal we make but its the risk you have to take, otherwise, why would Ricciardi even want to make a deal. We could look back in 4 years and be pissed that we gave up an AS OF in Dom Brown and a reigning CY winner in Kyle Drabek...or we could be saying,"ashame Kyle reinjured his elbow and never made it back but thank God we got Roy Halladay to help us win 3 straight WS."

Stutes, Worley and Savery added together don't make one prospect. I shouldn't say that because I've never seen Stutes pitch. But I'll add the other two together and we still only have half a prospect. I'd give Savery better odds of being a first baseman in the majors. Watching him pitch is an exercise in being unimpressive. Number lie in his case.

In fact, Rodrigo Lopez may be the answer this season if he can stay healthy. The guy simply gets people out. He has a track record. And he seems to know what he's doing out there. Maybe Pedro goes straight to the pen and Lopez stays in the rotation. Happ and Drabek go for Halladay. And we still have a good chance to win every day except for when Moyer pitches against a team that's not swinging from the heels.

I'm looking at it from an aspect of contributing to the major league roster in 2010. I could see Carrasco or Drabek out of the bullpen, or Drabek starting for maybe a month, and having some success in the case of a significant injury. I don't have that same confidence in the other guys. We lose depth now - that's my biggest concern if we ship out Carrasco AND Drabek.

NEPP - "3 straight WS" - I love your thinking!!

Why not take a look at Kotsay? Boston goes and makes the prerequisite Pirates trade deadline move in La Rouche and dumps off a capable player in Kotsay. He has a decent bat, I'll be honest I haven't followed the Red Sox bench that closely this season but I'm just thinking out loud here.

He's a LH hitter, we already have good LH hitting on the bench. Still, he'd be better than Gnome.

We need a legit RH middle infielder.

He's a LH hitter, we already have good LH hitting on the bench. Still, he'd be better than Gnome.

We need a legit RH middle infielder.

Another thing I forgot to mention. If we end up getting Halladay and we keep Happ, that makes for a crowded rotation. Instantly, we can throw a starter into the pen, preferably Pedro, who doesn't have a ton of leverage in arguing it being that we took the chance on him, and now you have a middle reliever who has a couple of Cy Youngs on his mantel. That sounds like a tiny upgrade from J.C wouldn't you say?

You know what, you couldn't be more correct there. I just have a good feeling about this Halladay deal but I'm far from convinced that Ruben is done shopping even if this trade goes through. Ryan Howard said it himself, they want to win now and there are still some pieces to our puzzle we need to fill that can be had out there.

Besides the obvious impact that Halladay brings, I wonder if the Phils aren't looking around and seeing the teams they might run into that have a much better 1-2 than they do right now.

People seem to overlook last year that Hamels was very good and very consistent in the 2nd half and until his last 2 starts Myers had pitched as well as anybody in the 2nd half in the NL.

Plus, the teams they ran into during the playoffs lacked that 1-2 punch. Brewers had an exhausted Sabathia and no Sheets. Dodgers had Lowe but a still a kid (Billinsgley) who was trying to figure it out. Cubs were probably the only team that did it with Zambrano and Harden.

This year though it is a largely different story. Hamels isn't pitching that well and there is no clear 2. On the other hand, the Cards have Carpenter-Wainwright, Giants have Lincecum-Cain, and the Dodgers have Billingsley-Kershaw. Only the Rockies with Cook and Jimenez seem to lack the really tough playoff rotation the Phils are likely to encounter in the NLDS.

If the Phils are serious about wanting to try to win a World Series again this year, you have to trade for Halladay. Next year is a crap shoot because you don't know what this team will look like from a health perspective at this time or if the NL East won't actually be full of such mediocre teams again.

McCarthy - Romero will be in the pen regardless because he is a lefty. As for shopping, Amaro probably picks up a waiver wire deal for a right-handed bat but it is hard to believe he would make any kind of meaningful move after trading for Halladay.

"Next year is a crap shoot because you don't know what this team will look like from a health perspective at this time or if the NL East won't actually be full of such mediocre teams again."

Amen to that, and after next year Halladay is likely gone for good.

Glad it's Amaro's job to make this call. I'd sure be losing sleep right now. Think he wishes Gillick was still the one who had to pull the trigger?

The shrinking violet Carlos Carrasco allowed six runs on four hits in six innings last night, in fornt of BJ scouts. Thanks, Carlos.

Gillick would have pulled the trigger on the deal by now...Prospects were merely a means to an end with him (as his record as a GM has shown).

Bed Beard: Maybe Carlos didn't want to be a Blue Jay...

It's been an interesting season. Way back in the start, when there was talk of trading Peavy, people said the Phillies didn't have the good to land him. Now, we're the front runners for Roy Halladay...

Peavy getting injured may have been the best thing that ever happened to the Phillies. Thanks, Jake.

I have to agree, Gillick probably would have had him a few days ago. I keep hearing conflicting reports that "the ball is in our court" according to Ricciardi and ESPN says it's going to happen and a minute later they say the sides are drifting apart.

I've been on every blog and rumor mill I can find since Thursday trying to get a good idea of what the most recent talks have been. The best I've found thus far has been MLBtraderumors.com, if anyone is interested. Does anyone else have a better source?

Tim Dierkes is posting about the negotations on MLBTR. Apparently, he's their best. I don't think you'll find a better source than him.

Z. McCarthy: MLB Trade Rumors is a great clearinghouse for all rumors. Probably the best there is.

That Eaton guy looks like a terrific prospect. He should be regarded as untouchable.

Looks like its not gonna happen folks...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4355464

Kendrick was called up to AAA to replace Carpenter.

If they don't make the Halladay move now, then the pressure is going to be back on Amaro to come up with a frontline starter this offseason probably via trade too.

This issue isn't really going anywhere. Just dormant for a few months.

More Posturing, eaglesfan89

Kendrick again...great.

eaglesfan89: We talked about that Stark report already. That report merely states that we won't match what's reported to be the Blue Jays' first asking price. If that were enough to kill a trade, there'd never be a trade completed in baseball.

Though it is good to see that Jayson Stark is essentially a mouthpiece for Toronto.

With Taylor staring to flourish in AAA, i'm glad to NOT see him in the rumored deal. I'm starting to fall on the side that he can help the Philles (off the bench) now. Could easily do better than Mayberry. We'll probably see you in September, Taylor.

The Phillies are close to reaching an agreement on a six-figure bonus with RHP Steven Inch (Edmonton, Alberta), their sixth-round draft pick and a member of the Canadian National Junior team. *

Good-keep adding arms.

This wait is painful. I almost want the Phils to accept the Jays offer just to get it over with.

I find it interesting that many beerleaguers claim that Happ is pitching way over his head, is nothing but a #4 at best, and compare him to Kendrick, yet Toronto would much rather have him than Carrasco or Knapp, or other combinations of high prospects. Why do you suppose that is? Could there be some legitimacy to many scouts take that Happ is actually better than they first thought? His fastball is sneaky, he already has shown mcuh better feel for a changeup and slider than Kendrick ever did, he has poise. While I feel it's a fair assumption to assume that teams will get more acquainted with him as he pitches more (lessening any surprise effect), I also think it's fair to assume that his offspeed stuff improves over time. My personal opinion is that within 2 to 3 years, he will be a solid #2 for some team (and a very cheap #2 at that).

Off course, I hope he is a better #2 than Robert Wagner was...

Happ will never be a #2 on a playoff team.

IMHO at least.

The Jays want Happ because if they don't get 1 guy that can go right into their rotation, they're gonna get lynched. They'll probably get lynched anyways but I think that's the logic there.

I'd definitely be asking for Knapp if I were them.

By the way, my last post was misleading. Kendrick called up to the major league club to replace Carpenter.

Sounds like the Halos are stepping up for Halladay. C'mon Rube!

Condrey to the DL again. Steven Register called up to take his place.

Bullpen:
Lidge
Madson
Park
Eyre
Walker
Kendrick
Register

Who? (sorry, I follow our minor leagues pretty well but who?!?)

Speaking of #2, what is the equivalent in basebal trade terms to that scene in Austin Powers where #2 can see the cards and hits on 17 saying that he likes to live dangerously, then Austin, while showing 12, says "I'll stay; I too like to live dangerously"?

Spmething like Rube responding to Ricciardi with "Happ, Drabek, and Brown is too much. How about Hamels, Victorino, & Werth instead".

Ugh. Register is nothing more than minor league roster filler. Surely they had better options. That's just a horrendous bullpen. Time to make a trade.

****How about Hamels, Victorino, & Werth instead".****

I think the proper response to that would be:

"Throw in Utley too and we'll give up Scutaro"

Wow, that is not a very pretty bullpen. We're going to have to make a deal at this point.

Register pitched in 10 games for Colorado last year posting an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.900. He gave up 4 HRs in 10 IP.

He's got a 2.88 ERA in 25 IP with Lehigh Valley so far this year.

That Andrew "Aw, Carp" Carpenter has been replaced w/ Kendrick says a whole lot about the Phils opinion of the former ... &, for that matter, Mr. Trashner.

Anon, you do'nt know that Toronto would rather have Happ then Carassco. They asked for a reasonable package. Maybe they thought asking for the Phillies Top 3 preseason prospects was out of line.

For me, I'd rather give up Happ than Carrasco. Carrasco is 22. Happ is 27. Happ is'nt going to be a star that you regret trading 3 years from now. Carrasco is'nt much right now, but he still has the ability to make you regret trading him.

Is now a bad time to mention that Mike Koplove has a 1.26 ERA with 49 K in 50 IP in AAA this year?

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi at FOX Sports are reporting that the Angels have "intensified their bid" for Halladay. The Jays are said to be asking for one player from the Halos' major-league roster and "another who could make an impact in 2010."

Additionally, Jays officials are said believe Halladay's past two brilliant outings make their recent offers "reasonable." Sources don't believe a deal will be completed this weekend.

Ruben needs to pull his head out of the sand and make this deal. I know giving up both Drabak and Happ hurts but this is Roy Halladay. He isn't a B-lister, he's the best there is. He has a chance to do what every team exists for, to win a World Series. You trade for Halladay, you make the Phillies the team to beat 10 fold.

Register?! What the hell happened to Escalona?!

Escalona was doing so well at Lehigh that they "promoted" him to Reading.

Escalona was sent to Reading.

While Carrasco is young and has the potential to be good, he seems like a likely flameout to me. I would've thought that after a year in AAA, he would've started producing some better numbers, but I see no upwards trend. Happ, while he will not be a star, is a fairly good bet to give you an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 for the next few years. I'll take the (relatively) sure thing over the chance that Carrasco turns out to be great.

Does anyone remember when Gavin Floyd was our Drabak? We didn't pull the trigger on a few deals because we couldn't part with him. Last time I checked, he's in Chicago winning baseball games. The time is now, how do we know Drabak isn't going to walk or Happ down the road?

Why not take the sure thing and make your rotation the best in the league all while showing the players on your roster that the front office is behind the players and is doing everything they can to bring another championship to our city.

This trade is all anyone is talking about. I live in Niagara Falls, NY at the moment, and I just had a 35 minute conversation with the plumber about this who is a Yankee fan saying we'd be foolish not to do this.

In Carlos' defense, he's only 22. He simply might need more time. His stuff is there, if the mental part can ever catch up.

I agree that I'm not nearly as high on him now as I was last fall after his great stint in Lehigh to end the year.

Speaking of Carrasco, that's who I would have called up for bullpen duty. Either him or Stutes.

Of course, even Jack Taschner is better than Steven Register.

I forgot about Taschner. He can't be happy not being promoted over some of these guys.

Why would you call up Carrasco? To terrorize the opponents with his wildness?

I am Jack's sense of outrage...

-Additionally, Jays officials are said believe Halladay's past two brilliant outings make their recent offers "reasonable."-

I hate it when I hear things like that. Halladay's been in the majors for 12 years now and has had plenty of starts like his last two. How does that raise his value?

I'm not saying we should give up on Carrasco, just that I would rather have him in any potential deal than Happ. Carrasco could very well be great for us, but when it comes to prospects, I think it's almost always better to take the sure thing.

RE: Escalona

How many times did this kid get jerked back & forth between Lehigh & the big club? And didn't he pitch effectively the few times Charlie actually decided to use him? And after all that he gets demoted to Reading? Nice to know that one's AAA numbers are more important that what one does when given a shot in the Majors. I suppose that explains why Carpenter is still w/ the organization ... but then again, it doesn't even begin to explain why Kendrick is still around, let alone pitching in the bigs again. Sometimes I wonder if the FO just throws darts to decide who gets promoted, because none of their decisions seem to follow any logical pattern.

Escalona in Philly: 6 G, 6.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, 4 SO, 2 BB

It's funny how things look, depending on your perspective. From some of the posters on this board, Drabek and Happ is too much to ask for in a deal for one of the best starters in the game. On MLBtraderumors, fans of other teams think that it is a joke and Toronto would be getting fleeced with a package of Drabek, Happ and Dom Brown.

I think it's fair on both ends.

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