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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Comments

JW: Jonas Bros?

This is an unbelievable move. It's a steal considering we killed 2 birds with one stone and got the bench bat.

Ruben Amaro is instantly in consideration for GM of the Year.

Stark on 950 belives Happ goes back to the pen. Precursor to another move?

I still feel like something's cooking.

Stark says Happ to pen? That can't be serious?

Happ to pen? No effing way. Moyer becomes the 6th starter.

He's 47, he's not gonna bitch about a couple of extra days off every week.

I'd be all for a six man rotation if we maintain this lead. It would allow everyone to get some extra days off. No sure if that is reasonable though.

I see it as very reasonable: because of the first half struggles, no starter on this staff is a cy-young contender, or anything, they won't be depriving themselves of better stats for more money. One or two more wins won't make or break any of these guys final line.

The team will be on board with it, i think.

I don't believe for a second that JA Happ is leaving this rotation.

Happ to the pen would piss me off beyond belief. Either Rodrigo or Moyer go to the pen. Personally, I feel you put Moyer there because of his inconsistency and ride the Lopez train until it pulls into station.

Great trade by Amaro, great!

This has to signal the end of Moyer. Are they really going to ride the year out with 4 lefties? Moyer DFA, Pedro to the 5 spot, if he doesn't work out Lopez goes back in.

Maybe Happ for Washburn?

No way Happ goes back to the pen after the way he's pitched. That's asinine.

Trade: Me Likey.

Moyer's not getting DFA'd.

I'd rather see a 6 man rotation than Happ moving back to the pen. However, in the absence of a 6 man rotation they'll almost certainly demote Happ before they do anything w/ Moyer. Remember, Pedro is already slotted to take RoLo's spot. Anyone who thinks the Phillies will remove Moyer from the rotation now haven't been paying attention to the way this team operates. For better or worse, if he wants to start & can walk to & from the mound unassisted, Jamie is gonna pitch. The only way that changes is if Moyer pretty much volunteers for bullpen duty ... which, given that he's (somehow) leading the team in Wins, isn't very likely.

You don't trade Happ for Washburn. Happ under team control for seasons to come, Washburn a free agent following 2009.

No way Moyer is cut. They owe him too much money. While Pedro MIGHT be a better option, they only owe him < 1 million which is definitely expendable.

I know everyone is all pumped up over the trade, but lets not get all crazy.

This is about to be a big time debate.

Starting pitchers: Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer, Lopez, and Martinez.

The first 3 are guaranteed spots in rotation. Happ should stay put, because he's been great. Moyer has been constantly up and down, and despite having 10 wins, is nowhere close to being one of our best alternatives for the rotation. Lopez is hot, but how long will it last? I say we keep letting him pitch and find out. Pedro is still a big question mark, and I could easily seem the team bringing him on as a reliever, especially since he said he'd do that if need be.

Lee
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Moyer

Rolo = Traded
Pedro = Bullpen

Just a guess.

Breaking News (via Twitter):

THE_REAL_WHEELS - "Word is that we're real close to making a move for Cliff Lee. Wow!"

:-D :-D :-D

Wow. Embarrassment of riches. Nice work, Rube.

So, who are the Phils 12 pitchers?

Rotation: Hamels, Blanton, and Lee are sure things.

Moyer, Happ, Lopez, and Martinez battle it out for back-of-the-rotation spots.

In the pen, Lidge (because of salary and Charlie's sticking with vets), Madson, Romero, and Park are sure things.

Eyre's a near lock.

Condrey and Durbin battle it out with the two rotation losers?

Then, if Myers comes back, another head has to roll.

Lot of trade chips available for what now rise to biggest problems: better utility infielder, better back-up catcher. And, of course, Lidge's untrustworthiness.

I think Happ is now a very tradeable commodity with either Brown or Taylor -- we've got a formidable rotation and Drabek in the wings...

Not sure what Rodrigo could net us, but if he could get a solid backup catcher or utility infielder to displace Bako or Brunlett, then I'd be in favor of dealing him. Just casting him aside makes no sense at this point though while he's pitching so well.

What are the chances that because of the fan backlash in Cleveland that they say there is something they don't like in the medical records and ask for the Phils to sweaten the pot?

Happ and Taylor for a closer? idk?

Need I point out (as someone else did earlier) that the Phils still have the main chips the Blue Jays asked requested for Halladay? We could always sell the farm (give away Drabek and keep Happ) and have an incredible rotation for 2 years:

Halladay
Hamels
Lee
Blanton
Happ
Moyer/Lopez/Pedro?

/Knows it doesn't even make sense and will never happen, but a man can dream...

Rev: Sweat in the pot? Yuck. :-S

Bay Slugga: And eat Lidge's salary? No way.

What do you think of trading Drabek, Happ and Brown to the Jays now and the rotation becomes: Lee, Hamels, Halladay, Blanton and Moyer/Martinez/Lopez?

Salary may not be possible to take on now, but who has a staff that can match that? Giants? Unlikely. Yankees?

To move Happ to the bullpen would be unconscionable. He's performed way too well.

Moyer has the contract and in his last 13 starts, since his back to back blow ups, has gone 7-4 with a 4.04 ERA.

Rolo has a shorter track record of success, and is much better suited to the bullpen than Moyer, so he goes.

You let Pedro start in AAA for the next couple weeks, then reevaluate your situation from there.

Not saying cut him. Just make him a setup man?

I'm not saying this is a good idea, just a thought.

There's no rush on Pedro just yet. We have a few weeks to play with there before having to make that decision.

Assuming there isn't another deal made, I say Lopez to the pen for now, and we see what happens (another injury for example).

You can't put Moyer in the pen, and you shouldn't release him. First, he deserves to be here. And second, he can now be Yoda to another younger lefty starter.

I haven't been able to read all of the posts today, so if someone has already discussed this just ignore me, but what effect do you guys think Cole Hamels' recent outings had on the decision to get Lee instead of Halladay. If Cole had continued to pitch poorly (relatively) the need for a true number one would have been greater. However, with Cole starting to look like the Cole of last year that need was filled and perhaps the Phillies decided that Lee will match up well enough with other playoff teams' #2.

Lopez to the bullpen ain't a bad idea. Unfortunately I can't see Moyer being useful out of the pen, but I'd also rather not have him starting. Can we make him deputy pitching coach?

Bay Slugga: I wouldn't be opposed to trying something like that, but Charlie is very attached to players & their "roles" ... & he has said on many occasions that Lidge is a closer, period. So whether that might make sense at some point or not, I can't really see it happening.

First, I'd like to state that I loveee this trade. I like everyone else wanted Halladay, but it's hard to complain after seeing what we traded away for Lee AND a right handed outfielder.

I forget what poster it was who noted that the save conversion rate is 65% or whatever but I wonder is that can be misleading. Yes Lidge is over the 65% mark but does this 65% include all relievers or just closers. If a pitcher come into a game in the 6th inning and his team is up 3-2 and he gives up a run, he is charged with a blown save. If he pitches a scoreless inning and doesn't give up a run, he only gets a hold. Since this reliever isn't a closer he will never get a save, only blown saves and holds. This will always lead to lower save % number if that 65% includes all relievers and not closers since closers are the only ones who can pick up a save. I'd be more interested in seeing what the % of saves converted by "closers".

Sorry for long post, but for those saying to trade for Halladay too, and those saying it's not feasible because of money or whatever. I know THERE's ZERO chance of it happening but if they did trade for Halladay also, they could use Lee and Halladay to win a World Series this year and then flip one of them to restock the farm after the season. I know not gonna happen but just a theory haha. But anyways it's a great time to be a Phillies fan and I can't wait to go to the stadium and use the tickets for the rest of my ticket plan.

@spark

Read the posts before you, then post.

*The More You Know!

As for the sideshow...Mets fans doing their best Neville Chamberlain impersonation on Metsblog. A sampling:

"Lee is not as imposing as Halladay. Arguably, his best season last year was the best he’ll see. Also, that is a bandbox he will be pitching in– although somehow Moyer does it."

In other words, Lee will not get better than 22-3 with an AL Cy Young on a 4th place team. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

"Yes, the Phillies do have Drabek and one or two other prospects left, but the other major “A” prospects are gone, so from now on to the foreseeable future they will not be in trade conversations (kind of like the Mets are now following the Johan trade; however, the Mets are starting to rebuild the next line with Holt, Mejjia, etc…)"

In other words, yes, they did keep every blue-chipper they'd have given up in the Halladay deal including Happ, who is a big part of their rotation this year, and Michael Taylor, who was not part of either discussion, but...but...but...we just got Jeff Francouer?

Just a great day to be a Phils fan. All the angst of the past few weeks was totally worth it even if we didn't get the guy we were all arguing about.

@ Brian G: I agree.

So if Lopez goes to pen, and so does Myers when he comes back, who gets cut? Guessing Durbin and Condrey? And if Martinez proves worthy, then...Eyre?

I heard a rumor that Ricciardi demanded we re-name the team to the "Toronto Phillies of Philadelphia", along with Drabek, Happ, Taylor, and Donald for Halladay.

We're in a great position for a run at the title for the next two years. Great time to be a Phils fan...I'm even more excited for the rest of this season!

DJMTWO - this hasn't been discussed much, if at all, but I don't think the Phils confidence level in Hamels has affected their decision to get Lee over Halladay.

I just don't think they wanted to give up so many young players that figure to be a part of their future success.

I applaud the trade (since Clout thought that I wouldn't). Hate to see Marson go, but hopefully DeArnaud is on the fast track to the bigs. He might need to be in the next year or so. CC will go into Cleveland's rotation and get a chance to learn some things and become the stud he could be. Knapp might be the best of all of them. But you never know how 19 year old kids will project 2 or 3 years out, when they are big league ready.

I think the sneaky best part of this deal is Francisco. Would they have been able to get a right-handed bat the quality of him from Toronto, if they had bent over for Halliday? No.

Lee is younger, cheaper and has the 2nd lowest % of flyballs to HR's in baseball. Which means, like Happ, he will throw some flyballs, but they aren't usually well struck and don't leave the park.

They got the 2nd and 3rd most important parts they needed. The #1 issue though, still has not been resolved. Its still the issue, no matter who starts or how great the starting pitching is, that will decide the fate of this team in 2009.

Which means, the pressure is going to be SQAURELY on Lidge to show something and get the job done. He has been the worst closer in baseball this year. If he doesn't turn it around, this team will go nowhere in the postseason. Either that, or Myers will HAVE to come back and take his 9th inning spot.

Again, Rube did good and kept the guys he wanted to keep. But it will still come down in the end, to the 9th inning. That hasn't changed today.

Shame on you, JW: "nice position prospects, but not the kind of players who win titles."

WS Titles:
----------
Eric Bruntlett: 1
J.A. Happ: 1
Alex Rodriguez: 0
Roy Halladay: 0

I still think Happ gets moves as part of a deal for a bullpen arm. Lopez moves to the pen most likely.

The Phillies don't need Halladay at this point. They certainly didn't need him at the price Riccardi wanted them to pay for him. Look if they got him now that would be a sick rotation. However, it is also the ultimate in "win now" moves because you aren't leaving the cupboard a little light- you are throwing everything from it in the trash.

With Lee they have a solid 1-2 punch for the next year and a half along with solid performers in Blanton and Happ. If Happ gets moved Moyer and Pedro can be fine on the back end of the rotation and maybe Kendrick or Drabek is ready to go to start 2010.


2 things people are overlooking in their excitement about the rotation:

1.) Moyer makes way too much money to be in the pen.

2.) Pedro most likely didn't sign to be a reliever. He wants to start in the regular season at least

Iceman: That place from which they speak is called bitterness. Phillies fans know it well from watching them get everything they wanted for a few years.

It's nice to finally be on the good side of things. I, for one, am enjoying this time in the sun and damn those who wish to ruin the good times. This doesn't happen often in Philadelphia.

Happ to the pen would be a typical Phillies move -- typically infuriating, that is. I'd like to think this trade signals a new Phillie mind-set, in which they worry about putting the best team on the field and stop making decisions based on tenure or loyalty or concern about hurting people's feelings.

In any case, they don't have to decide anything quite yet. Rolo to the bullpen is the obvious and immediate move, since he has pitched there before and done well. Then let's see how Pedro pitches in his minor league starts. For all the excitement about Pedro, his 2008 ERA+ was 6 points lower than Moyer's in 2009. He's still got to be considered a long shot to actually help the team. If 2009 Pedro is the same as 2008 Pedro, then Moyer > Pedro.

Great trade by Rube

-BUT I have trouble believing its that hard to get rid of Eric Bruntlett. There are players in the mexican league who can do his job better than him. Hell, there are players in business-park soft ball teams that can do his job better than him.

BTW, I think Toronto will have to trade Halliday to Boston and probably take a package lesser then they would have gotten from Philly. They will get Bucholtz though.

I also think Lopez will be traded as well. He has shown he can still pitch in the bigs as a starter and there are several AL teams out there (I am looking at you, Minnesota) that could use a cheap but effective starting pitcher. Maybe Rube brings a young minor league pitcher back in the deal.

Lopez will be the guy to go, when it all shakes out. He will have won 3 games for the Phils off the scrap heap; helped stretch the lead out in the NL East when he was here and then snagged a young prospect in return as he leaves. More brilliance from Rube.

DNL has byline on RHB that reads "Ben Francisco Treat" with his stats. Witty. It made Mitchypoo chuckle. Even that dour bastard Hayes had a laugh.

When did they allow Marcus back on this show?

dlhunter: Gnome has pictures of everyone in the FO. Very, very incriminating pictures. It's the only possible explanation.

I know now is not the time to look ahead, but this trade certainly makes it possible. Here's where we stand:

The Phils have $113.786 M committed in salary next year to 13 players (that includes us picking up Feliz's option). That money covers 1st, 2nd, SS, 3rd, LF, RF, 3 SP, CL, 2 RP, 1 BN.

We also have 5 arbitration eligible players and 2 players who will receive tenders that made $12.177 M this year and will get raises to next year. That money covers CF, C, 2 SP, 2 RP, 1 BN.

And there are 5 empty positions (Bako, Stairs, Bruntlett, Park, Eyre) of players who are either FAs or not likely to be retained. Those players made $7.65 M this year.

The total of committed salary and arbitration/tenders is $125.963. I'd expect that amount to climb to at least $132-$133 M after arbitration is over.

AND we have 5 more positions to fill: backup catcher, utility infielder, bench bat and two relief pitchers.

diehard: I had the exact same thought as you. 65% seems really low to me. I haven't researched it, but I simply can't believe that is the average conversion rate for closers. I'm almost positive that average refers to ALL relievers, in which case it is totally misleading, since a reliever who doesn't pitch in the 9th inning can only be charged with a blown save but not a save. So you wind up with totally misleading stats like Chad Durbin's 6 blown saves in 7 "chances" in 2008. In reality, he had almost no save chances. Pitching in the 6th inning is not a save chance, even though you can still get charged with a "blown save."

Moyer has to be given some time off. If anything, Pedro can spell Moyer and Happ/Lopez can fill in from the pen. Once Myers is back, this team is set...after we DFA Gruntlett. He sucks.

Truth: So Happ and his 7-1 record with a 2.98 ERA, as well as 5 years left worth of control, is just "part" of a deal for a reliever? Why would we want to just give this guy away? Yes, he's not as good as those stats suggest, but his FIP ERA has been 4.1 for each of the last two years... which is solidly above average. You don't trade starting pitchers who are solidly above average and have 5 years left worth of team control for relief pitchers.

doubleh: I can't stand Hayes. I go the George Costanza "Do the opposite" route w/ regard to him because if Marcus likes something, it cannot possibly be a good idea. His insistence that Lee was no good & the Phils MUST wipe out the farm to get Halladay was the final straw in pushing me completely over to the "against" camp. The only Philly sportswriter I like less is Fitzpatrick -- what a bitter, bitter old man.

In re: Gnome

Since EB is at .125 BA, I'm ready to accept Cairo. Even when he was the sucky RHB off the bench he was better than that. Surely Bruntlett can net some Future Considerations. (And for all you folks trying to trade Eskin, we'd have to include, like $7.38MM in cash considerations for anyone to take him away - I mean, really, what other team in their right mind would want his commentary going out on their airwaves?)

I think the deal has to be RoLo for a utility IF, back-up CA or good RP. Toss in Bruntlett (with option a), or Bako (with option b) if you can.

And although it is a 162 game season and I don't want to jump to any conclusions, I think a certain someone is washed up, along with his pointy little hat and scruffy little beard.


i guess i'm in the minority here, but i have my doubts about this trade. because:

1. LA feasts on lefties
2. i think we sold low on carrasco and donald when we could have sold high on drabek and (especially) happ.
3. there's still plenty of time before the deadline - was there really no chance to wave this deal in front of toronto and see if they'd relent a little?
4. now there's a logjam in the rotation.
5. cliff lee is good, but roy halladay is transcendent.

i do realize that #3 involves pure speculation on my part.

i am glad we kept brown and taylor.

b_a_p: Does this mean you're going to go to the 8/1 game in SF?

When is Lee's first scheduled start?

CJ: all the more reason we need to win another WFC this year, gotta make enough scratch to pay the bills!

BAP, yeah wasn't Durbin's one save that 3 inning save against the Cubs in the blowout game. Therefore, we need to figure out how Lidge stacks up against other closers to determine if he is league average, or as most of us think, one of the worst closers in the league this year.

Mike: Unfortunately, I don't think I can make it to any of the games, but I haven't 100% ruled it out yet.

There is a possibility, with Myers injury this year and regardless of a return to the pen this year, that he could be re-signed for relatively cheap next year (maybe 1 yr./5-7MM). That would give a rotation of:

Hamels
Lee
Myers
Blanton
Happ

That sounds good to me.

G-Town: Yeah, and there's the infamous fight Hayes had with the blogger, right? He's just so smug and smarmy. I was happy he got off of the Phillies beat, but now it would appear he's back on it?

Whatevs. Now he's all for the deal of course. Flip flopper.

Liked Mitch's assessment of Lidge from last night. Horrible pitch selection he says. First pitch slider when you're up by 3 runs to Mark Renyolds? I enjoy him so much more as an "analyst" than a pitcher. LOL.

Umm... now we're getting rid of Happ?
The guy's been the most consistent starter on the team, no way they trade him now or move him back to the pen.

Moyer isn't going anywhere either. He's too well-liked by Charlie and the FO and he has definitely improved since the first month of the season.

Lopez will head to the pen or back to AAA, he's pitched well but I doubt he's worth anything in a trade.

The only question mark here is Pedro, and as someone pointed out there's no hurry with that one. Let Pedro do his thing in at least a few more minor league starts and then, if he really seems like he's returned to form, then you have a tough decision. I don't think the Phils even know what they'll do yet if that scenario takes place, but I don't think they care anymore because they don't need to replace Lopez in the rotation.

this pending medical reviews thing still has a touch of "dewey defeats truman" to it... i've been a philly fan for too long, i'm not gonna be completely comfortable until it's official.

b_a_p: I considered the quick flight to SFO for the Saturday game a few months ago, but work prohibits it, unfortunately. Who would have known that the projected matchup would be in place?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Lopez can be sent back to AAA. I think he has to stay on the roster or we lose him, right?

G Simms: They feast on lefties? You mean like...Cole?

GSimms: LAD might hit lefties well ... but they face 4x more RHP than LHP. I think those numbers might dwindle under a consistent southpaw onslaught. Not to mention, Hamels and Lee are excellent lefties ... the kind LAD never get to see out in the NL West. Plus, we'd only get the LAD in a long-series, and with the log-jam, we might not have to throw them Moyer. Remember Hamels CG shutout this year? We are sitting pretty in the NL.

doubleh: I think I recall that Lopez would be exposed to waivers.

And I think they are considering putting Happ in the BP because he was so successful as a long man and has already done it for them. I don't particularly like it and I feel for Happ, but Lopez is a RHP so maybe they think having the 2 RHP in the rotation is better?

G. Simms: It's been reported that the Phils actually did give Toronto one last chance, adding Happ to the deal Cleveland got, but the Jays said no and repeated their demand for Happ, Drabek, Brown, etc.

does anyone else keep checking the projected pitchers for the weekend series just to see if cliff lee's name has been added?

Simms,

#4 is a nice problem to have.

Brian G's scenario makes the most sense and is the most likely to happen. The idea of moving Moyer to the pen is ludicrous. Lopez has pitched there before and is an upgrade over Durbin.

Every poster assumes Pedro will be great, but let's see him pitch a few minor league rehab starts first, OK guys? If he looks good, then you make a spot for him. Things have a way of opening up.

Clout: Dead right. I want to see some results from Myers and Pedro before I'm penciling their names anywhere.

Amaro has to be talking to folks about trading Lopez for either a relief pitcher or a utility infielder. He's got too many starting pitchers. Happ's not going to the bullpen, no way; he's pitched too well so far.

Hamels/Lee/Blanton/Happ/Moyer, Lopez in the 'pen, Pedro cooling his heels in AAA. I'll guarantee you there are talks going on involving Lopez.

What team would want to trade for Lopez? That's ridiculous.

CJ: thanks for that.

Mike and Philly Blunt - point taken.

i'm probably being a bit overly contrarian. it's just that the picture i've had all week of halladay in pin-stripes, and then the sight of him shredding the Mariners this afternoon give me just a twinge of buyer's remorse.

I do love the depth here, who's to say our entire rotation stays healthy? I don't think we'll see the likes of Andrew Carpenter making any more starts this year.

VOR: Chance of Myers coming back as a starting pitcher this season: Zero.

diehard: Yeah, our instincts were right. That 65% is a totally bogus stat.

I took a quick look at the league leaders in saves. In the NL, there are only 3 pitchers with more than 10 saves who have a save percentage lower than 80%. Lidge is one of them and the other 2 are Hawkins and Valverde of Houston. But Hawkins is a setup guy who was forced into closing only when Valverde got injured, and one of his blown saves came in a setup role. One of Valverde's blown saves also came in a setup role so, of the pure closers, Lidge is the only one in the NL whose save percentage is under 80%.

Same goes with the AL, where there are only 2 guys with more than 10 saves and a percentage under 80%. One is Kerry Wood, whose overall numbers are way better than Lidge's but who is repeatedly held up as one of the most blunderous free agent signings of the off-season. The other 2 are J.P. Howell and Andrew Bailey, neither of whom has been a closer the entire year and both of whom have been charged with blown saves in non-save situations (i.e., before the 9th inning).

Among closers, the average save percentage is closer to 85%. If you're not over 80%, you're going to be near the bottom of the league in this category and, sure enough, that is where Lidge is.

Maybe Baltimore will take him back.

doubleh: Amen on Mitchy-Poo. His salsa is pretty damn good, too. ;-) Did they mention anything about Lidge having thrown three straight days? I kinda wanted to chalk up last night's bomb at least in part to that.


Hayes is so full of crap:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/columnists/20090728_Marcus_Hayes__If_Phillies_can_get_Halladay__forget_future_with_Drabek.html?viewAll=y>If Phillies Can Get Halladay, Forget Future With Drabek

He'll probably be the first to say "I told you so!" if something were to go wrong w/ Lee, too.

Ok so I went through and looked at the top 30 closers in the league based on only total saves. Since I did it this way and not the top from each team, the Astros and Rangers were represented twice, but I thought it's still a good sample size either way. The top 30 guys in saves this year had a total of 597 saves in 678 oppurtunites. That's a 88% success rate. Lidge is 20/26 which is a 76.9% rate.

Phylan -
At this point, Seattle might. Even with Snell they're a little short on SP. I wonder, as well, if ARI might be interested since the bottom of their rotation has been less than stellar. I could see Rube asking the Snakes for Qualls but being okay with, like, Rauch.

Starting pitching is always something people need; and RoLo has looked good this year.

CJ: Those numbers look about right. I have us at $128M after figuring $5 for Shane and $7 for Blanton. The good thing is that all the positions you mentioned can be filled for below a mil each, as they're the edges of our roster and we can use AAAA guys or sign Rodrigo Lopez types. The most important thing is that our very large core that we're spending the big money on are all worth it, which means we'll be very very good no matter who fills in those other spots.

I'll breathe a lot easier once Knapp and Donald clear their physicals.
Also, I echo Denny B (who essentially echoed me), that w/o a reliable closer, the Lee addition will not count for enough.

So then basically Lidge has been the worst closer in the league this year? I'd say that's been pretty obvious just by watching him play. And whoever it was that suggested with luck (dribbler up the middle against Yanks, Feliz's error against Dodgers) his save percentage would be better, wouldn't that be the case with all closers though. Luck plays a part in a lot of what happens in baseball. Saying Lidge would be better if he had luck is assuming that other closers didn't blow their saves with some bad luck also, which is quite possible. K-rod has a BS where his 2B dropped a pop up for instance.

I definitely like this trade. Carrasco is clearly the best player we're giving up. His ERA is poor but his peripherals are pretty good. I say pretty good because, despite having a K/BB of around 3, his FIP remains in the 4 ERA area. He gives up a decent amount of HRs. He's young for his level, though, and if he's putting up a defense-adjusted ERA of around 4 at AAA at age 22, then he should be a pretty good player in the Majors some day. Plus a high ERA lets Cleveland keep him around in the minors a while longer, so they can have him cost-controlled for the better part of his prime.

Knapp is obviously the biggest question mark. If he gets better control, doesn't suffer too much degradation against higher levels of competition, and can survive the inevitable rise in his HR rate, he will be a good pitcher. 19 year old pitchers in A-level are simply too young to worry about giving up in trades.

As for Donald and Marson, their value was built on high BABIP. Once Donald got promoted to AAA, his once-Ichiroesque BABIP plummeted, and I'm not really confident it will ever return. Marson had one really good year that had everyone excited - on a really high BABIP. It's one reason to be worried about Taylor, though.

IMHO Rube could have pulled a "Stand Pat" and I would have been OK with it because of the performance of Lopez and the possibility of a serviceable Pedro...and an early Meyers return to the pen.

Selling the farm + Happ for Halladay would have been exciting. Though, personally I thought the price would have been too high considering our relative need.

Lee + Fransisco for small piece of the farm is a great deal on our end and I am happy. Lee looks like a good competitor...I like how he sprints off the mound. He can get outs on his fastball, change, and curve....work the corners. Kinda reminded me of Glavine for a sec on the one video. Add in a serviceable bat in Francisco and I go from feeling good to happy.

Here's what Keith Law says about Carrasco:

"Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is just 22 and has shown an above-average fastball, but he lacks a plus or even above-average secondary pitch, his command is poor and his on-field makeup has been a major question for two years; he doesn't respond well to adversity between the lines and, according to multiple sources, was so upset about seeing his name in trade talks last year that he pulled himself from a start during warm-ups and may have deliberately pitched poorly to try to hurt his trade value."

If he did deliberately pitch poorly to hurt his trade value then I'm not nearly as sorry to see him go. However, I won't necessarily take just Law's word for it.

For all those saying (like Keith Law is):

"The Phils didn't need Lee because they'll win the division anyway. And the playoffs are a crap shoot."

That leaves out one key fact: Lee will be here to help us toward a divisio crown next year, too!

Law must be overexaggerating. He's struggled this year but would the Tribe really take a guy that is purposely mailing it in without even making the majors? Besides, I thought Carrasco had plus stuff other than his fastball. I don't think we'll miss Carrasco, but I don't think he's as bad as Law has made him out to be.

From his body of work, I get the sense that Law doesn't much like the Phillies.

Since Carrasco is no longer a Phillies prospect, I assume in a week or two, Law will rave about his unbounded potential and devastating arsenal of pitches.

CJ: To be fair to Law, he followed that sentence about not needing Lee by saying:

"It's hard to argue with the value proposition, however -- if you can get an underpaid, top-three pitcher in the tougher league without giving up any of your top three prospects, you kind of have to make the trade."

NEPP: Carrasco will be the next Rick Sutcliffe.

Law tends to give more pessimistic reports than other sources on all prospects, not just Phillies.

Considering most prospects don't turn into the stars a lot of people envision, he's probably right to downplay expectations.

Happ/Drabek/Brown have to be breathing HUGE sighs of relief. Looks like they won't have to play in the Great White North and get paid in Canadian currency.

Let's assume that Myers comes back, and goes to the Pen, and the last starter in the post season is Happ/Pedro.

This potentially gives you the following arms in the pen, besides the guys at the top:

Park
Myers
Pedro/Happ
Lopez

One of those guys probably doesn't stay. But, it seems like that might give you enough quality arms that can go multiple innings, that you could potentially have another bat on the bench in the post-season.

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EST. 2005

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