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« Calm, cool, collected Cole in total command of 4-3 win | Main | Breaking: Carrasco scratched, Donald, Marson out »

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Comments

Reposted from the previous thread:

Clout: Why are you so opposed to the notion that Lidge's knee isn't affecting his mechanics, and ultimately his performance.

This is a knee that he has had surgery on before (multiple times?), and he has already spent time on the DL THIS year for it. It isn't as if he is strictly having "bad luck" on the mound, as hitters now know Lidge can't throw his fastball with any command. This was extremely evident in Upton's AB last night.

The Phillies haven't exactly been open with injuries in the past, and Lidge kept saying he was "fine" before his previous DL stint.

Clout, what would you say is more important to the Phillies post season success - Trading for Halladay, or Brad Lidge finding his rhythm?

I contend that the closer situation is more important to thie October's success than another starter, no matter how good. We have an offense so good, we can go into any game confident of having a lead late in it. However, poor pitching by the closer and set up men can spell doom to any lead.

So, what's wrong with Lidge? I carefully examined the pitchFx data at Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=563&position=P&season=2009&date=2009-07-26&dh=0) and I can find nothing in any of his numbers vs. last year which tells me he's lost any velocity or movement from any of his pitches. So, is it just a small sample size thing? If so, then we can win it all without any pickup this year. If not, we need a fireman in the bullpen, ASAP. We cannot wait to see if Myers will come back effectively, we must trade even if it means renting someone for 2 months.

Go Phils!

Almost perfect? Really? With a team ERA that ranks 21st in MLB, and that after their best month of the season? Get Halliday! Offer them Happ, Brown and Knapp or Happ, Drabek and Donald.

Roy Halladay ain't Ivan DeJesus and he ain't the 35yo Larry Jackson.

I agree with most of J's post, except for the last line. This team is not close to perfect, Hamels / Blanton / (Happ / Moyer / Pedro) is not an OK playoff rotation. Yes, I know we're rocking an awesome July, and right now Blanton is pitching great. But I am still skeptical without that other starter.

I do agree that the next three days will probably define Ruben's tenure, no matter what happens. We won't know the real winners and losers until 2011. What a poker game, it's pretty exciting either way.

But from top to bottom, is there a better situation in baseball?

He ain't DeJesus, but he could easily become Schmidt, Zito. You never know, to present both sides of the argument, Dom Brown could become Reggie Taylor.

I find it hard to believe that folks are actually postulating that Myers as closer will be an answer to Lidge's struggles.

Myers always, and always will be, a mediocre pitcher. Lidge's struggles are hard to figure out, but despite his struggles, he clearly has better stuff then Myers has.

My guess is that if Lidge doesn't work things out before the playoffs (I doubt that the Phils will pick up another closer), Charlie will go with Madson as closer. Madson also has good stuff, and I have to think that his recent dropoff/poor performance in the closer role is more a matter of sample size than anything else.

I'd be willing to roll the dice with Madson as closer.

In short,

Hate to interrupt the Halladay orgy, but Rube has absolutely no reason to make such a high-stakes gamble with his young career.

Stand by for the Pedro signing.

Posted by: curt | Tuesday, July 07, 2009 at 11:38 AM

right, but let's remember that ryne sandberg was traded for ivan dejesus. not a difference-maker, not even an all-star. not roy halladay. and with all due respect to the senior correspondent, yes there are pitching busts, but there are far more prospect busts. plus zito and schmidt aren't even good comparisons - they're busts for their bloated contracts, not for the prospects surrendered to get them. and neither one of them had the track record of halladay when they moved to their new teams.

if the 28 year drought arose from the phillies undervaluing prospects, as your post suggests, i don't think we need to fear that. they clearly value them very highly, and have built a solid player development machine. this is one of the uses of such a machine - it can land you the best pitcher in baseball.

drabek, happ, brown for halladay. do it. put us out of our misery. do it already.

I don't know enough about the other teams' overall situation to answer that. I'm just nervous about the playoff pitching matchups, thats all. I agree that we have a great situation.

phlipper: But two weeks of sample size says he can't do it.

I'm not so worried about top to bottom. I'm woried about this October and next, while this core group is still together.

In a playoff series, I'd give the Dodgers the nod right now. But address 2 of 3 weak areas (top of rotation, pen, bench), and it swings heavily to us. Do that and the Phils would have at least a 75% shot of getting back to WS for at least two years.

Carrasco was just scratched from his scheduled start with no reason given. Marson and Donald are also not in the starting lineup for today's game.

Carrasco was scratched from today's day game start. Donald and Marson are also not in the lineup.

Another point, it seems clear from the proposed trades that the Jays are not getting the "Blown away" offers they seemed to have been expecting. From that, I'd say that the Phils are correct in holding off on their #1 pitching prospect in this case.

Things may change, but I think we may get Halliday without giving up Drabeck.

Beat ya!

NEPP: you win the race : )

JW: The bottom end of this team is far from perfect. And will continue to be used just as disproportionately as Cholly spells his starters.

Re: lidge, I wonder about his initial fastball location. Last year he seemed to locate this very often for strike one. Pitching ahead in the count, his dirtbag slider was a devastating outpitch. He seems to be locating that first pitch less this year and players aren't biting on that slider as much. Anyone have numbers of this?


Burt: Great post. I think the point he's trying to make is just how tough it is to make a call like this, especially, as curt points out, so early in his career, while handed a great club like this.

Not that it matters, because I value the collective say most here, I'm on the record here and on radio saying the Phils should do it.

Was there anybody here saying J-Roll was injured when ehe was going through his slump? Baseball is very much a head game. Just because Lidge isn't doing what you expect of him, based on last year's performance - and as far as expectations there really is nowhere to go but down from there - doesn't mean he is injured.

It's all been said, so there really isn't much more to add - only I hope we are somehow able to make this deal without including Brown. I think he is the one we will regreat giving up for a long, long, long time.

Think Darryl Strawberry without the cocaine habit.

phlipper: While I kinda am leaning towards Madson as well, Myers has shown he can be a solid closer. As a reminder, here are his numbers as a closer:

53.1 IP, 21/24 SV, 64 K, 2.87 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

You telling me that wouldn't be better than Lidge right now?

Yeah because he only hit 325 or so HRs with the coke habit...

joe l - go to baseball-reference.com and look at the advanced pitching stats... first pitch for strike percentage for BL in 2008 = 55%, in 2009 = 57%.

Great pic of Sandberg in a Phils uni. I bet you searched the googles for 5 minutes to find that gem.

Here's (http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=400058&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1&count=0&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0) a plot of Brad's first pitch results this year. Kind of all over the place, and this article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brad-lidges-issues) from earlier in the year indicates the same issue: Can't get the first pitch strike, which sets the tone for everything.

NEPP - right so imagine without it? (Well, maybe he would have only hit 225 ... who knows?)

Seriously though, Brown's transition to the OF and middle of the line-up would line up well with Ibanez' departure after 2011.

Carrasco, Donald, & Marson were the top three prospects at last year's deadline, and Cleveland scouted them in detail in advance of Sabathia trade talks. They might have a higher opinion of them (based on that scouting last year) than other teams who are just looking at this year's numbers. Just saying...

Carrasco, Donald and Marson out of the line up today? Washburn trade incoming.

/cries

Carrasco, Donald, Marson I think leads me to believe Lee more than Washburn - or it is simply the Phils making the Jays nervous ...

I'm not sure what is going to happen here, but I have to give some props to Amaro - he seems to be holding his own in this pressure cooker thus far.

from cbssports:

According to reports, Carlos Carrasco has been scratched from his Triple-A start Wednesday. The Phillies top prospect has been rumored in trade deadline deals for a front-line starting pitcher like Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee.

**Great pic of Sandberg in a Phils uni. I bet you searched the googles for 5 minutes to find that gem.**

Era-correct logo, wrong color uni.

JW: I'm not b!tching, just sayin' to TonyD....

It was interesting to read in today's paper that Kyle Kendrick is now enjoying throwing his changeup in any count and has had recent success with it in the minors. I have always thought that with a third pitch, he had a real good chance to be a decent 4th starter.

I am hoping to see him get it together and become a viable option for the Phils for 2011 if they give up some of their best pitching prospects for Halladay.

I know that most people don't talk about the future much, but the core of this team is getting exponentially more expensive, and if the Front Office is going to hold it together, it's guys like Kendrick who are going to need to step in within a couple years.

SmokeyJoe: Good Point, I think Cliff Lee could be had for less but I want Halladay on this team sooooooo badly. We could definitely use another righty in our rotation

Re: Bullpen issues being central to our chances. I agree entirely, but there is a caveat----

Dealing for Halladay indirectly affects Lidge and the rest of the pen. If Halladay and Hamels (and possibly Blanton) go deep into games, it means less use (e.g. more rest) for the pen. It increases the possibility of CGs, and perhaps Lidge/Madson does better with a reduced workload.

MG: Regarding last thread. You asked how any person could trust Lidge. I gave you the numbers which are not that bad, and like I said- could very easily look better than they do.

You've said in the past that 65% is the standard of saves around the league and Lidge has saved 76% of his games.

Like I said- not that I'm not worried about the guy at times, but had those three close saves swung the other way we are looking at a guy who is 22 of 25, and not 19 of 25. Those numbers are very different.

p. Red -

Myers never inspired confidence in me when he was the closer. I don't think he has the "stuff" that a closer needs. His curve ball is the only pitch that is better than mediocre - and not too many closers depend on a curveball.

Right now, I think Eaton would likely perform better than Lidge - but if Lidge doesn't turn things around, I sure hope we aren't placing our hopes on Myers.

Sounds like Cliff Lee is possible w/ those guys being out.

Burt: Excellent points, all. I would throw this out there, too. At the time of the trade, there was really no way to foresee that Ryne Sandberg was going to turn into a Hall of Fame player. His minor league numbers were kind of like Jason Donald's, only not as good. That's not to say I would have endorsed trading him away for Ivan Dejesus (hell, I wouldn't have traded Bowa for DeJesus straight up). I'm merely saying: sh*t happens. Sometimes you trade away a second-tier prospect and he turns into a star. Of course, the flip side is that sometimes you trade away a stud prospect and he turns into nothing -- as when the Phillies got Bud Smith in the Scott Rolen trade. Once you start taking lessons from 30-year old trades gone awry, you're entering slippery territory.

Its definitely not Halladay...they have no interest in Carrasco or Marson.

Have to agree with Burt. Too many disjointed arguments and qualifiers rolled into one statement.

Big difference between trading for a pitcher who has a 1 1/2 half left on his contract ans signing a FA pitcher to a long-term deal ala Zito.

Hello Lee + Halladay?

Hamels, Blanton, Lee and Happ is more than enough pitching to win any series. If it comes at a cost of Carrasco, Donald and Marson, while keeping the twin towers for the future I'm a happy man.

In fact, this deal keeps the window open until 2011, if Drabek and Knapp live up to the hype, longer. We dont NEED Halladay to win a WFCII.

Stark's saying Phils close on Lee. . . but then sticks a "?" on the end of the statement.

although i highly doubt it MLB Trade Rumors has the belief the three are being pulled for a trade for Halladay... I highly doubt it but if it does happen give Rube exec of the year right now!

New from Jayson Stark:

Three Cleveland scouts -- including the club's director of player personnel, Steve Lubratich, were in Lehigh Valley to watch the Phillies' Triple-A team play an 11 a.m. ET game.

Phillies starter Carlos Carrasco, who has been a subject of talks between the two teams, was abruptly scratched from his start in that game with no explanation from the club.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4363553

So if it's true and the Phils get Lee, who's that leave for Toronto? And how much less are they going to get. Riccardi may have overplayed his hand.

I wish it was 3:59 on Friday right now...all this suspense is killing me!!!!!!!!

I predict that the Phillies will trade Drabek, Donald and Taylor for Halladay on Friday at 3:53 PM.

refreshrefreshrefreshrefreshrefreshrefresh.

10:23am: MLB.com's Todd Zolecki hears Marson and Donald were scheduled to get the day off. Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail hears that Carrasco's absence from the game has nothing to do with Halladay.

from MLBTR

Truth - That 65% number for saves conversion is for all saves opportunities (1-2-3 run leads) for MLB. It is remarkable how consistent that number has been the last several years across MLB. Basically fluctuates a 1-2% either way for the past several years.

The real merit in evaluating in a closer though is looking at his performance in 3-run, 2-run, 1-run saves. 3-run saves usually a calk walk like Lidge had last night. 90% is the number I have seen on conversation rate there. That's really high.

Means that a closer really should be evaluated on 2-run and especially their performance in 1-run leads. Provides more descriptive validity because of the wider distribution in performances even if you have small sample sizes and pretty moderate fluctuations from year to year with most closers in their 1-save conversion rate (largely due to the small sample sizes).

All that aside, though I just don't see how any can defend's Lidge performance this year. It is historically awful and it is his worst year by far as a closer. Stats aside just look at him on the mound. Just doesn't have the confidence in his location.

And it isn't fare to say like Clout keeps repeating that Lidge was healthy in 2007. That's 100% crap.

Do you know how much Lidge is struggling due to his knee issues or can you quantify that? No. It is pretty ridiculous though to assert that Lidge is healthy and his struggles are solely based on "confidence" or "mechanics."

Where is the Yahoo story on the Boston offer? I'm seeing it referenced all over the place, but I can't find the actual story anywhere.

Yo, newer threads

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