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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

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I think once the deadline passes, this Myers story will become very fascinating. Frankly, I was surprised he is considering this; with free agency looming, I thought he'd be safe and ride out the rest of the year on the DL.

The bullpen move raises so many questions. Is he just that much of a gamer? It's possible. I can see a guy like him just not allowing himself to sit out another potential Series run.

But there are bigger questions; namely, does he feel he needs to perform at the end of this year to get a good contract going forward? Furthermore, will he try to sign that next contract as a reliever? Who knows. He would command less money, but he admittedly loves the role.

I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Breaking news from the Iceman's twitter:

Iceman has gotten into the sweepstakes for Roy Halladay, offering up his kidney and two functioning organs to be named later. Riccardi has said this is not enough and also wants his girlfriend, plus financial considerations once he finishes his law degree. Iceman is said to be mulling the counterproposal.

I contend that Myers, if her returns as an effective force in the bullpen, will become more important to the Phillies success this year than Halliday. Doc won't get us to the playoffs, that's highly likely anyway. He will only start 1 or 2 games any given series, and will represent only 1 or 2 runs below what an avarage starter will produce in any given game. We may win without him or lose with him.

The bullpen, however, is the concern. Lidge is fragile this year. Madson doesn't seem to be able to handle the pressure. If Myers can step up, he can nail down those high leverage games, and make every Phillies game a 6 inning affair.

This Halladay thing is taking over my life. It's like I'm addicted to crack... Crack laced with Roy Halladay.

Iceman: Does the gf have a no-trade clause?

Dan: 1 or 2 runs below average = huge in the playoffs.

I agree a Myers return will be very important if he's healthy, but let's not kid ourselves. Plus, Lidge isn't being bumped from the closer role unless his leg falls off.

Clout: if the girlfriend had a no-trade clause she'd be his wife. I think the real question is, what is her VORP?

Tony D: Concur. Quite maddening really.

or VORGF?

From the end of last thread, regarding Donald and "value":

Clout: Actually, Bruntlett doesn't have value. He's clearly been far worse than replacement level this year, and he's being paid almost 1 million dollars, I believe. He definitely has negative value this year.

According to Fangraphs, Bruntlett has been worth -1 wins this year, 10 runs below replacement level.

So no, Bruntlett does not have "value".

Do you think Donald would be as bad as Bruntlett?

clout: word is she's got a list of teams she'd accept a trade to. Conditions need to be met- big city, a window to negotiate a long-term deal, near her winter residence, etc. No word if Riccardi will/is able to meet these requirements.

Another aspect of the potential trade from Rube's point of view:

If he wants to do what is fiscally the best thing, from a cost-benefit point of view, there is no way he would make this trade. We go to the playoffs without the trade, and wouldn't be able to offset the added cost by the incremental revenues between a playoff team and a WFC. Also, winning has diminishing returns to a fanbase. At the end of the Braves long run, they never sold out, and even were blacked-out in the playoffs because of lower attendance.

However, if Rube (and ownership) are more concerned with their legacies, then the $5 million (+ or -) difference in income is probably more than worth going all out.

Jack: "Do you think Donald would be as bad as Bruntlett?"

That is not possible. I am saying that Donald would not be very good.

JBird: VORGF. I like it. Of course it's all theoretical because replacing a gf isn't easy and may not even be possible in some cases, especially if you're trying to improve.

Jason Donald is hitting .230 in AAA currently, correct?

And his defense is questionable at both SS and 3B.

Is someone is suggesting he replace Bruntlett on the roster?

SmokeyJoe: I said in an earlier post that I think no matter how this trade deadline works out, the phillies are going to have a down couple of years after the entire team hits free agency in 2 years. And like you say here, it'd probably be a relatively good thing for the team's bottom line to coast on their (hopefully) 2 or 3 WFC's for 2 or 3 years save some money, horde some prospects and then when the fans start to get restless again, ramp up for another run. Makes sense to me.

Clout: That's why a good farm system of potential girl friends is important.

"Jason Donald is hitting .230 in AAA currently, correct?"


He's been hurt most of the year. I don't think he has played in AAA in a month and a half.

Donald can hit. He may not be a great fielder (Utley wasn't either in the minors), but he will hit in the majors as either a starter or utility guy.

Plus, Iceman, you have to think, Roy Halladay isn't young and guarantees you nothing. At the end of this 1.5 yr stint, you're going to be looking to replace him. Or her, dependent upon what your owners think is the best course. Would you be as ready to give her up for Cliff Lee?

FYI The Nationals are on a 3 game win streak. Yea for a vacation from losing!! All vacations end though. The Nationals: The only AAA team allowed to play in the big leagues.

"Lidge isn't being bumped from the closer role unless his leg falls off."


I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Because if Doc Halliday comes here and Lidge continues to suck as one of the worst closers in the NL, there will be INTENSE pressure to replace him. ESPECIALLY, if Myers comes back healthy and ready to go.

This season, no matter who starts or who comes here in trade, will eventually come down to the 9th inning and the closer. That simple.

JW: Thank you for re-using the "schwing!" pic! I'd missed it so.

"it'd probably be a relatively good thing for the team's bottom line to coast on their (hopefully) 2 or 3 WFC's for 2 or 3 years save some money ..."

seems the entire board is suffering from delusions of wfc grandeur. this is the phillies we're talking about. the two world series titles since 1903 phillies. the phillies of 10,000 losses and a million little hearbreaks. roy halladay might be among the best pitchers in baseball, but he is not a god. he cannot walk across the international border, smile blithely, toe the mound and alter the landscape of history. enjoy 2008, store up the canned goods and water and prepare for inevitable doom.

OldPete: They've been losers my whole life, let a boy dream, will ya.

dennyb: on what date did Lidge last blow a save?

Answer: June 6th.

Since returning from the DL, Lidge is 6 for 6 in save opps. After his horrid appearance against Toronto in his first appearance since the DL stint, he's got a 4.22 ERA with no blown saves and a .250 BAA. I dare say that he has gotten better as the season has gone along.

Cholly is too loyal to ditch Lidge in the middle of a playoff chase, especially if he doesn't go on a Mesa-like string of blowing leads. I've said before, I heard his interview on The Pen and it was incredibly telling: all he said was "I know he can close games, I've seen him close games. He's the same pitcher he was last year in terms of stuff." It will take a seismic shift for him to be shaken from that position.

OldPete: save a tinfoil hat for me.

Having won the World Series w/ Lidge as closer last season, I don't believe for one second that Charlie would pull him from that role this season, no matter how poorly he performs. We've all seen how (a) loyal to guys he likes & (b) just plain stubborn the Phils' skipper can be. The only pressure that has any hope of swaying Charlie is pressure from his bosses, & even then I can't imagine him benching Lidge. Now I'm not saying that's the right thing, I'm just sayin'.

I have a question: If the scoreboard gun in Reading was spot-on last year, why did they need a new one this year? Did it break?

G-Town: Of course replacing Lidge is the right thing to do. Just like moving Rollins out of the lead-off spot is/was the right thing to do!

Donald has been rehabbinng in the GCL and he isn't even hitting there. This is basically a lost season for him, kind of like Happ's 2007 season.

Of course, if the threshold is to be better than Bruntlett, pretty much anyone would do. But there isn't much reason to believe that Donald would be an adequate bat off the bench either. There surely have to be better options out there.

Per MLBTR:
3:59pm: Dan Roche, an anchor for WBZTV, hears that the Red Sox did not offer Buchholz, Bowden and Westmoreland for Halladay.

As I said, this is all BS right now. I imagine newsrooms with monkeys flinging poo everywhere. This is absolute madness.

G-Town: I agree. I think most realists would say that Lidge has performed this year as such that if Cholly had a better option, he should at least consider going to him, especially if he starts blowing saves again. Problem is, there's no better option right now- and even if there were, loyalty is the guy's best- or worst- quality.

Iceman: Don't finish your law degree. There are no jobs for lawyers.

Yours sincerely,
Jonathan R. King, Esq.

"I have a question: If the scoreboard gun in Reading was spot-on last year, why did they need a new one this year? Did it break?"

Perhaps to fool other teams' scouts into thinking our prospects throw harder than they do.

In Chollie's defense, his loyalty to proven players has been rewarded more often than not.

Of course, I have no choice to but to believe that Bruntlett and Bako get at bats simply to demonstrate their futility to the FO

Spitz: Given the lack of viable replacement options, I'm thinking Charlie's probably right to stick w/ Lidge. However, I continue to believe that the Phils could've gotten a win or three more if J-Roll had been dropped in the order until he turned things around. Vic was/is a perfectly viable leadoff option, if needed.

Since Myers is the headliner for this link and Halladay is the topic of the month, are there any similarities between the two?

Myers was the Phillies number 2 prospect and MLB #33 rated prospect by Baseball America in 2002.

Both have great stuff and above average fastballs plus a little fire always burning in (and on occasion out of) control.

I am sure everyone here thinks Drabek will be better than Myers but also everyone would probably agree that Myers can be dominating at times but has not lived up to his hype or potential.

Maybe Drabek is the next Halladay but he could also be the next Myers.

G-Town: I'm glad you picked up my sarcasm.

I think Cholly has proven that he likes to keep guys in the role that they are comfortable in. Like J-Roll leading off and Vic in the two hole. And Lidge closing and Madson in the 8th. He'll do this even when players are in a slump.

So far, his strategy has returned us a WS championship and a 7 game lead in the division. I'll take that.

Jayson Stark reports the Jays are scouting the Phils AAA club tonight.

Why would they be doing that if the Halladay "deadline" was today?

Are we really going to quickly work out a trade after tonight's AAA game?

Or... is it possible that Ricciardi was trying to mislead people?

Yes, CJ, very possible. And Drabek becoming the next Myers isn't impossible, that's true. This early in Myers's career (or Adam Eaton's for that matter), there was very little to suggest that he (or Eaton) would become the underachieving headcase he became.

Keep this in mind: anything that any reporter would "find out" during trade negotiations would come from one of three types of sources - (1) a low level employee who wants to feel important, which probably isn't the most reliable source or (2) Someone really in the know, who would only report something that helps their cause or is strictly benign, otherwise they would defeat their own purpose and possibly lose their job or (3) pure conjecture from a reporter trying to sound credible and linked-in.

Buster Olney says the Phils and Indians are doing extensive background work on a trade. Sounds like Cliff Lee is a more serious Plan B than I thought. Phils are hoping to guide the Indians away from Drabek and perhaps towards Knapp.

Myers, if healthy, would hopefully provide a nice shot in the arm for the pen, but how would that impact his free agency? Would the Phillies offer him arbitration, or maybe try to sign him to a 1 year redemption deal, like Lohse did with St. Louis? It will be an interesting story to follow the rest of the year.

CJ, if you were the Indians and have heard what the Jays have turned down, you already kind of know where the bar is set. I would figure that if they are moving forward, it's more than just a "feeler" on the Indians part, that they know the parameters and are willing to work within them. On the other hand, the Phillies could be using the Indians as leverage.

In related news, the Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting (via Brad Childress) that Brett Favre will remain retired. I suppose that means Rachel Nichols can move from Favre's lawn to Roy Halladay's lawn now.

Do the Indians have an RH bat that we could get in the deal as well? I may prefer Lee + RH bat over Halladay.

Madden would only have retired if he knew for sure that Favre wasn't coming back.

Stark reports the Blue Jays will be scouting Jason Donald tonight as he makes his first start at SS for Lehigh Valley since coming off the DL.

"Since returning from the DL, Lidge is 6 for 6 in save opps. After his horrid appearance against Toronto in his first appearance since the DL stint, he's got a 4.22 ERA with no blown saves and a .250 BAA. I dare say that he has gotten better as the season has gone along."


All I have to go on is my eyes. And my eyes tell me, that Lidge is still the BIGGEST issue with this team going forward.

He couldn't have pitched any worse then he did the first few months, so he almost has to improve.

But does anyone here, have any confidence in him, in a 3-2 game in the 9th inning (how many of those has he actually had to save lately???).

You can have all the "loyalty" in the world (not saying that is a totally bad trait), but if/when this team comes up a little bit short in 09' because of a shaky closer, Cholly and the FO will be totally to blame for not doing anything about it, when they could have (at the trade deadline).

This is not the Lidge of 2008. This looks an awful lot like the guy who got run out of Houston. He eventually lost his job as closer there, BTW.

I hope Lidge magically can turn it around the last 2 months of the season. But I am not unrealistic to think that may not be in the cards this year. Whether its the knee or hitters figureing him out (he is very predictable) or a lack of confidence (which is my hunch) because some things have gone bad, he's not right.

According to PhuturePhillies.com, Donald is batting ninth in his first game back. I'm thinking that means they expect to pull him later in the game to ease him back in.

CJ - clearly JP's 'deadline' was a bunch of BS. Hopefully both Donald and Taylor play well for the 'Pigs tonight.

"Stark reports the Blue Jays will be scouting Jason Donald tonight as he makes his first start at SS for Lehigh Valley since coming off the DL."


Ohh, I hope he doesn't "melt-down" like Carrasco did when the Jays were scouting him (sarcasm alert).

Come on Jason. 5 for 5, with 4 runs scored, 3 RBI's a SB and 3 Web Gems. That's all we are asking for.

Depending on the kind of show the Jays scout sees tonight, we should offer Drabek/Taylor/Donald/Savery and see what JP has to say tomorrow. It would be nice to be able to get something done and slot Doc in on regular rest. A pipe dream, I know...

denny b: But why would the Jays be scouting Donald? According to Clout, he has no value to them.

OT, but CSN is reporting that former Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has died of cancer at the age of 68. RIP. :-( :-( :-(

Jim Johnson just passed away. I hate CSN Alerts.

For those of you not watching DNL, Jim Johnson died.

denny: I agree with everything you said there. My point is, Cholly's not going to pull the trigger on replacing him and hoping he will is wishful thinking.

Given that, I'll take the glass-half-full approach and be thankful we have someone who has been there/done that rather than some of the options we have had in the past- Mesa, Tom Gordon to name the two most-recent disasters.

It could be a lot worse. I realize I'm probably foolish to take the "Until he blows the season..." approach, but I have tons of faith in the guy after what he pulled off last year.

He was run out of Houston due to a damaged psyche, to be sure. But most of that can be attributed to lack of confidence the fans and FO showed in him that eventually led to a complete meltdown. I'm sure Cholly and Rube know this and are acting accordingly, giving him all the confidence they can that he can be THE guy in the 9th. Wavering at all at this point would completely destroy any value he has to this team down the stretch.

Given how quickly the Houston fans turned on him (and the amount of good that came from it), coupled with what he did for us last year, I think Philly fans should think twice before throwing him under the bus. But I understand that's not the acceptable negative approach that most here will take.

G-Town: I loved JJ. I miss him already.

RIP Jim Johnson

Getting Lee instead of Halliday sucks. Lee would have to cost like donald, Carpenter, and Kendrick to justify punting on Halliday. Well maybe not that cheap but it would have to be a SIGNIFICANT discount to go to plan B.

Rube don't make the same mistake Cashman did with Santana. Hows Joba, Hughes and Kennedy improving the Yankees title hopes this year vs. Santana? You go after the best pitcher in baseball. Period.

doubleh: A truly, truly great coach, & (in my view) the single biggest reason for the Eagles' success this past decade. For football fans who love the defensive aspect of the game, Jim Johnson was the best thing to happen to the Birds since Buddy Ryan. I feel so bad for his family, & his players/fellow coaches. :-(

Sad to hear about Johnson.

God Bless Jim Johnson, very sad.

Jack: You're being childish now.

On ESPN's ticker I just saw Padilla got scratched from his start with swine flu.

RIP Jim Johnson.

Tray: You mean on Farvecenter?

Favre*

The punishment for typing fast is looking dumb.

Knight, relax......everyone on this board has, from time to time, had problems with his or her fingers on the keyboard.

Knight: If ESPN has become FavreCenter, is this site now Halladayleaguer?

Tonight's Lineup (via Zolecki on Twitter): Rollins SS, Victorino CF, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Ibañez LF, Werth RF, Feliz 3B, Ruiz C, Hamels P.


Ahhh, mercifully Bako free ... :-)

Sox about to swoop in and seal the deal for Lee. Per MLBTR

In the midst of all this Cliff Halladay talk, I hope Hamels can prove tonight that he's a true ace by beating Haren.

Yea yea, but misspelling Favre as Farve is one of those really bad spelling mistakes. Like spelling it Lincon instead of Lincoln!

And just to discuss the Phillies a bit, I hope Hamels builds on his relative success in his last start (not that it takes all that much to beat the Padres).

Would like to see Hamels miss some bats for once. Seems like a bunch of teams have been running up pitch counts on him since he can't get quick punchouts. I have no statistic to prove he's missing bats less, and if someone could ground my speculation in fact, I'd appreciate it.

Halldayleaguer and Moyerleaguer. I dread Moyer starts just for the 3 hours of he said she said throughout the entire game.

BedBeard, if that's true it takes one competitor off of the Halladay table.

It could also be that the RSox won't meet the Jays price for Roy, and that they fell he's headed to Philly. Maybe the Sox are figuring they'll need an upgrade just in case they run into the Phils in the WS.

Who knows? We can specualte endlessly, and I bet we won't know a darn thing until 4:00 P.M. Friday.

BedBeard: If MLBTR is right about the Sox and Lee, then doesn't that leave us as the only viable (real) suitors for Roy?

Knight: Is Hallday related to Farve? ;-)

Yep, looks like our Plan B is about to be snatched up by the Red Sox.

Tweet:

"RT @WEEI850AM: the #redsox and #Indians are close to a trade that would send Lee to Boston for Bowden, Reddick and another prospect"

May be a bit early, but does anyone have an update as to how Pedro did this afternoon? Sorry, back to your regularly scheduled Halladay programming (get it, like holiday? thanks, I'll be here all week, tip your waitresses)

Bruntlett's OPS+ down to a measly 3. It's been fun tracking it, watching it drop a tick every two or three days, especially when he wasn't getting at bats.

Does anyone know about those guys from the Sox system? From what I've read on MLBTR it seems like a light haul.

Unikruk: Excellent post. Haha. There can't be a more useless player in all of baseball. I yearn for So Taguchi.

Crap ... that BoSox for Lee was a Twitter hack! Damn it! From MLBTR ...

5:40pm: Well isn't this ridiculous. Rob Bradford at WEEI tweets: "I have not reported anything. Somebody is hacking into my account."

While I don't think Bruntlett is as big of a leech on this team as some, it's a curious question as to whether or not Manuel would ACTUALLY keep him on the playoff roster if the Phils win the division.

It seems like a ridiculous notion: but Manuel and the FO have stuck with Bruntlett for this long when a scarecrow could do a better job out there, so why would they stray from him in October?

If Rube doesn't acquire a RH option off the bench (Willingham, etc.), I see some more playoff ABs for the unsung hero of World Series 2009 (two game-winning runs and a HR off the unhittable David Price!).

HA!

Rob Bradford at WEEI tweets: "I have not reported anything. Somebody is hacking into my account

Farewell Jim, we will miss you.

Red Sox prospects are worth 2 of any other teams prospects solely due to their status as Red Sox minor leaguers.

G-Town: Damnit I did it again. I surrender to the name spelling for the day.

Are we the only suitor for Halladay?

Blue Jays suggest the Rangers are real option (although Texas says Toronto would have to provide salary relief and Blue Jays say they won't).

Blue Jays suggest the Dodgers are real option (although LA says they can't come close to what Toronto wants).

It may help us if the Red Sox are out of the mix. But it also hurts us that Lee is out of the mix.

for the love of mike, somebody please trade for somebody!!!!!!

Well, looks like our Plan B isn't going anywhere.

Twitter hacking is evil!

Scratch that Lee to Boston trade.

Well, if the Sox do bag Lee, that could help the Phils make a better deal for Halladay, depending on the specific. One important thing it could do is, if the haul for Lee is somewhat modest, is allow Ricciardi to save face, if he doesn't come up with all of Drabek/Happ/Brown/etc. If Ricciardi's job really is on the line, managing his bosses' expectations is probably the most important part of whatever he does or doesn't do at the deadline.

Knight: Good idea. You're one misspelling away from being declared "washed up" ...

Iceman: Don't forget that masterful HBP! ;)

The Bourn-Bruntlett trade will be interesting to reevaluate over the next few years.

G-Town: It depends on what you set the cutoffs at though. My spelling could be trending upward or downward.

Knight: watch it. You're typing your way into a jam. I don't care if you get out of it...you're proving yourself not to be a serviceable BL poster.

Has there been any mention of Ricciardi playing an insanity strategy? As in, "whoa, that dude is crazy, I had better sweeten the deal or he'll back away from my entirely reasonably proposal and not trade Doc at all."

A real intrigue here. If the Phils-Halladay deal goes down, it will make an interesting chapter in Jayson Stark's retrospective book in five years.

Unilkruk: Interesting concept, but I think Ricciardi is just plain dumb. He comes out of the Billy Beane line of GMs. Which is kind of like the Bill Walsh line of football coaches, except pretend that Walsh never won a Super Bowl, or actually to be more accurate, a playoff game.

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