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Thursday, July 30, 2009

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HAHAHA keep the rumor mill whirling!

Or Garland?

I heard that Bruntlett and Scutaro are also being swapped to cut costs in Toronto

I'm sure Charlie and Dubee wanted to talk to him in person before they officialy schedule his first start. Barring any unknowns, it will probably be Saturday.

You joke about this, but on ESPN2 today Skip Bayless and co. were saying the Phils should STILL trade Happ, Drabek, and Brown for Halladay!

reminds me of why I can't stand Skip Bayless

only if Skippy agrees to pick up Doc's 15.75 mil next year....

Moyer actually could be quite effective against the Giants. They are the kind of free-swinging, no BB taking team that Moyer dominates.

But I'd love to see Lee vs. Lincecum.

Oh, and Skip Bayless is a tool. He doesn't think the Phillies are good enough to win the division.

Maybe I misread, but was clout suggesting that we trade Happ for Garland on the basis that Happ is unlikely to sustain anything close to his current performance? This is the same poster who kept sticking up for Kyle Kendrick until about a month ago?

Yea something smells fishy in the Bay Area. The whole BJ Crown Feathers will be in the stands tonight to watch Lopez. He will be the wild card at the breakfast deal tomorrow for Halladay.

Happ is going to make 15.75 mil in arbitration next year so it's a moot point.

Why is the CN8 guy hosting DNL today? Is everyone on vacation?

"This can only mean one thing: Lee has been traded for Roy Halladay."

Or we got him to "bolster the bullpen."

Maybe Lee isn't good enough to push Moyer out of the rotation?

Its obvious that Jamie is the best pitcher on the staff and probably the #1 starter come playoff time.

I mean, if the starting pitcher on the staff with the lowest ERA (and one of the lowest in the NL) can be moved out, why not the reigning AL Cy Young winner too?

I just love the "bounce back" theory, for why Happ might be moved. Lets face some facts here. The spot that Happ (or whoever) would move into, would not be someone that pitches every day or even every other day. It would be the spot that Kendrick holds right now, Happ held early in the season and Taschner held after Happ moved into the rotation. The "he only pitches when everyone else is tired or we are up/down by 8 or more runs" spot. The "waste of a roster spot" spot.

That is why its asinine to think Moyer or Pedro or Lopez, because of their advanced age, couldn't pitch in that role. Moyer can sit in the bullpen and talk to the bullpen coach, just as well as Kendrick can right now.

If its about putting the BEST 5 starters on the field, Happ will be starting next Tuesday against Colorado. If its about money and "loyalty" and whatever lame excuse you want to come up with, then Happ will lose his spot to an inferior (by a BIG margin too) pitcher.

Which is why, he will not be moved. He's pitched way too well, in this role, to be moved now. What would this be telling the kid anyway?

He pitched well last year as a starter and won some big games down the stretch, and all that got him was a bullpen spot to start 09'. He bails them out this year, when the rest of their staff was crap (and the guy who took his spot was flat out AWFUL); wins 7 games; has an ERA under 3 on August 1 and is in the top 5 in ERA in the NL, and now could be put back in the bullpen? Huh???

Seriously, what does this kid have to do? That is why I can't see any rational argument on July 29, 2009, that makes any sense. He's been a very good starter at EVERY level of the system and is a very good starter RIGHT NOW, for a 1st place team. Its not "luck". Its not "sneaking up on the rest of the league". Its not other teams "not knowing him". He's a good, poised pitcher, who is tough to hit and tough to pick up the ball against.

Will he have some bad outings and will his ERA move into the '3's? Probably or maybe not. People have been waiting "for the other shoe to drop" it seems all year with him. People here have been waiting for him to fall on his face all year? People in the FO seem to think this may not last. They are still waiting, aren't they?

One last one... the comparisons to KK are bogus too. KK came up and pitched effectively, but also had several 5 2/3 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER type of games, where he would leave with the lead and the bullpen saved him. KK had poise too back then, but he didn't have "tough to hit" stuff. Happ does. He didn't get "swing and misses". Happ does.

Equating one pitcher's situation with the other, is not a relevent argument.

i'm with you denny. it just plain doesn't make sense in a competitive business/sport to give the better player/employee fewer opportunities. i seriously doubt there is anybody on this blog that thinks moyer is better than happ right now, even if happ does "come back to earth" or regress to the mean. i love jamie, i really hope he stays with the team as a coach after he retires, but he's just simply not as good as j.a. happ right now. i would just hope that he recognizes this and volunteers to give it a go from the pen, though i'd give that about a 0.001% shot of happening.

Obviously our rotation is so good that Lee has been moved to the bullpen.

I've learned from clout and others that Moyer is making too much and trending upward.

denny b, chill man! You're starting to sound like Davthom/Coste. The fact that he hasn't been traded (yet) is a good sign they like Happ.

And I am not ripping Moyer either. I applaud him for giving the team 10 wins at 46 years old. With the way he started the season, I didn't think he'd make 10 starts this season before he'd retire, let alone win 10 games.

But with Lee, Pedro, Lopez and Happ now all on the scene/coming to the scene, there just isn't room on a championship-hopeful team, for Jamie Moyer in the rotation full-time.

Can he make some starts in September, when (hopefully) the division is taken care of? Sure. Against young hitters (which September is usually full of) he should do fine. And with Pedro not likely to come back next year, Moyer may come back and get back into the rotation for 2010 (if he doesn't decide to hang it up).

But for the rest of 2009, with the staff of pitchers the Phils have now collected...Moyer simply isn't consistantly effective enough to merit a regular rotation spot.

Sneed, it's true you're confused.

Jack supports maximizing return on the budget imposed by ownership. You seem to think that's a judgment on the propriety of the budget itself.

Obviously it's not.

If you want to argue that the team would cease to function if they spent but one dollar more on players salaries, that's fine. I don't think you'll persuade anyone.

And how that disproves the generic normative claim that "players deserve the money more than billionare owners" is beyond me.

I don't know why everybody assumes Pedro is good again.

We all know that Lopez is expendable, so this whole thing really isn't an issue unless Pedro returns to his form of three or four years ago, which I feel is pretty far-fetched.

Certainly its ridiculous to want to send Happ to the pen or have Moyer volunteer to retire (ha!) until we know for sure that Pedro can really pitch liked he used to.

I'm waiting for Lee's CBP debut. StubHub here I come.

It's got to be Neckbeard, Lee and Happ for Halladay and Scutarro.

Lee appearing live on DNL... tune in if you can, its coming.

"denny b, chill man! You're starting to sound like Davthom/Coste. The fact that he hasn't been traded (yet) is a good sign they like Happ."


Davthom? He was a buddy of Coste, so his views were skewed.

I think Ruben and Cholly like Happ too. How could they not, at this point?

But I think the kid has to be wondering (at least privately) what is up and why rumors of a bullpen "demotion" are out now? Hopefully common sense prevails.

At least give the kid a chance to bomb in ONE outing (like Cole has a few times this year) before signaling for his demise and calling for his job. Even when he gave up some runs against St. Lou, many were bloopers and quails. Even that outing, wasn't that bad.

And if he falls off in August and September, then maybe you can put him in the pen and replace him with someone. But at least let him go out and fail first. He certainly hasn't yet.

First one to bomb is the odd man out.

Phils now have 18 pitchers (12 active, 6 DLed) looking to fill 12 slots during August. Should be interesting.

I suspect Kendrick is gone by tomorrow afternoon.

It should be pointed out Happ's FIP is 4.2, which suggests Happ has been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this season.

I was disappointed we didn't trade since his trade value will never be higher. I have much more faith right now in Blanton, Hamels, or Lee than Happ.

flefster: Who doesn't have more faith in Blanton, Hamels or Lee?

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting that Happ is better than any of them. Even if his ERA moved more in line with his FIP, he'd still be a more than acceptable 4th or 5th starter!

flefster: Happ was never the linchpin in any trade, was just filler on top.

All I can is right now the Phils have way to many starters and a move is going to be made before tomorrow. Lets see what happens.

Has 2 reigning CY Young winners ever faced each other in the regular season?

Would have to either be interleague or a trade involved.

I like the Lee for Halladay trade. That in essence keep Toronto whole, while reducing their salary obligations. That trade would be a genius trade. Here's the trades using equations:

Trade One

4 junk prospects = Cliff Lee

Trade Two

Cliff Lee = Roy Halladay

Using cross canceling, Rube's net trade:

4 junk prospects = Roy Halladay.

I'm with LF. What do you think the breakfast chit-chat will be tomorrow at the Bay? They will kiss and make up with two of prettiest flowers in exchange.

The last sentence of JW's post must be a dig at MLBTR posters. And I wholeheartedly approve.

thephaithful: Yes, it's happened twice. Interestingly, it happened 10 years ago (Clemens vs. Glavine) and 20 years ago (Viola vs. Hersheiser).

re: Happ one of the 'luckiest pitcher'

Happ is tied for 3rd in E-F(ERA-FIP) at -1.22 with Edwin Jackson of the tigers, behind Matt Cain and John Lannan.

A big reason is that he is 2nd in the majors in stranding runners on base at a marvelous 83.5% - no surprise that the E-F leader Matt Cain is also first in LOB% at 87.7%


Re: TWo Cy Young winners facing off, here's the answer. It has happened twice:

Aug. 28, 1989 – Frank Viola (Mets) vs. Orel Hershiser (Dodgers). Viola throws a shutout and wins, 1-0.

July 15, 1999 – Tom Glavine (Braves) vs. Roger Clemens (Yankees). Glavine wins, 6-2.

Lee says he's starting tomorrow?!

From the last thread: I hope I don't offend NEPP, but there may be more people living in South Jersey than Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine combined.

You're most likely easily right. VT has a population of 620K, Maine and NH have 1.3 million each.

Montgomery County alone (where I used to live in PA) has a population around 800K. There's about 18 million people in New England...but CT is pure Yankees country while VT and parts of western MA (while strictly on NESN) are too. I live in Burlington, VT (our largest "city") and its probably 60/40 between BOS and NY up here. I get NESN but I don't get YES (at least not on regular tv) so technically we're BOS territory.

Cliff Lee is starting tomorrow. According to Todd Zolecki. Also Shane is not in the lineup.

Off-topic -- how concerned is everyone with the Dodgers picking up Sherrill? Looking at his stats, he murders lefties .... He + Kuo is giving me October heartburn already

I'd rather they get Sherrill than Halladay.

BobWalk: As worried as I was about Beimel and Kuo last year when we beat the Dodgers.

So does that mean that everyone gets pushed back a day? They better keep Hamels on Sunday!

****5:57pm: Bill Shaikin of the LA Times reports that the Dodgers and Blue Jays spent the afternoon "negotiating extensively" over Roy Halladay. Apparently talks aren't "dead" after all. The Dodgers would allow the Jays to get a "haul of prospects" but are trying to acquire Halladay without giving up Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley.****

That would suck.

Very true NEPP, I'll be very happy if they keep to Sherrill. And believe me, I am hoping that we can take care of LA, whomever they throw at us, but I think that Sherrill offers a bit more than Beimel -- I live in Seattle and he was always solid here. Who knows ... was away in meetings all day and the first thing I read was about LA and Sherrill. Regardless, this can't come close to taking away the shine of Lee & Francisco :)

denny b - Agree about Happ although I would be included to leave Moyer in the rotation. There has been tons of argument about the 5th starter but they have almost become academic at this point.

This gist of this whole thing really boils down to "Who is your best option if you need a 4th starter in the playoffs?"

Maybe I am being incredibly presumptuous with 8 weeks to go but the race in the NL East is effectively over. Phils lead may wax and wane a bit but the Fish aren't playing better than .600 over the next 8 weeks to take the division. Ditto the Braves.

At this point, that is clearly Happ and it isn't even close if you compare him to Moyer/Lopez?/Pedro?. Maybe that does change over the next 8 weeks. Reevaluate that when the Phils are making their playoff roster and know who there matchup will be in the NLDS.

I just don't understand why you would take Happ out of the rotation now and mess with a good thing for a largely complete unknown in Pedro because that is what is going to happen.

If Dodgers get Halladay without giving up Billingsley or Kershaw, then the maligned Colletti deserves some some real kudos.

Still, getting Sherrill was a solid move to address their numerous injury concerns in the pen right now and having a fall-back option in case Broxton's big toe injury becomes a real problem.

Getting greedy now but that is the really the last piece for Amaro to address. Then this team would be set to rumble with anyone in the NL.

Sherrill a piece for Halladay? That would scare me much more than Sherrill. Sure, the NLCS last year needed a monster blow off a great closer, but I'd rather have that be a little harder than have two games against Halladay.

I wonder if relievers say a prayer when they get traded to a Joe Torre led team? I mean, they have to know that he's gonna take years off their career with overuse.

It must be so weird for Jason Donald and Lou Marson to both be playing on the field in Lehigh but in a different uniform (and for Carrasco to be on the bench)...so weird.

Yo, game thread

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