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Thursday, July 02, 2009

Comments

"Slump" is not adequate to describe a 3+ month disappearing act.

curt: As I wrote yesterday, I think July is the tell-tale month for what to expect of Rollins' season. July is when Burrell & Howard turned around their miserable first halves in 2007 & 2008. On the other hand, when Burrell had his .209 season in 2003, he was just as bad in July as he had been up to that point.

From this, I conclude that 3 months of terrible hitting is a very long slump, but still not totally outside the normal ups and downs of a 162-game season. But if it continues for 4 months, then it's probably not going away -- at least this year.

My guess is that Rollins will finally start hitting this month. If he averages 4 ABs per game and hits .300 in July, he'll be hitting .232 on July 31. I'm guessing he'll hit above .300 for the month, and his average will actually be around the high .230s by July 31.

Mets hold off epic fail and win in 10. Still, they are showing just as many leaks as the Phils. This should be an awesome weekend filled with some ugly-a** baseball. Yeehaw! Can't wait. I will be there Saturday.

bap - fascinating extrapolation, but I'm not convinced the logic is sound. I agree that it is more likely that he will finally start hitting in July than in August, and, if not, that August is more likely than Sept. The unanswerable question is how likely any of it is.

Jimmy leading off.

Again.

....wow.

curt: There are really only 3 possible explantions: (1) it's a very long slump; (2) he's just having an epically bad year; or (3) he's simply shot as a hitter.

Rollins wouldn't be the first hitter to be shot at 30 (i.e., Andruw Jones, Marcus Giles, Carlos Baerga). But he would certainly be in a very small minority. I haven't heard any scouts say that he has lost bat speed; the consensus just seems to be that he's taking bad swings.

It's also a little hard to believe that Rollins is going to have an epically bad year, like Pat Burrell in 2003. Burrell was never a high-average hitter, so it's not terribly shocking that he would have the occasional dismal year. But it would be pretty rare for a veteran player, who hits for high average, to just drop off the cliff for a full season. The only similar cases I can think of are Christian Guzman in 2005 & Paul Konerko in 2003 (if you count a .234 average with 18 homeruns as dropping off a cliff).

The odds say this is just a very long slump. But, if he continues to struggle through July, then I think the odds change dramatically and we're more likely looking at a dismal year and maybe even a very early end of the line.

Let's go Phils! Do something unexpected and hit Vazquez well.

BAP: Excellent description

I JRo I Trust.

doubleh: Leaks? Leaks would be appropriate if their starting 1b, SS, and CF, set-up man, 2 starting pitchers, and a couple of bench players (Pagan) werent hurt. They are decimated, not leaking.

The thing with Rollins though is.. a slump is .240 or .250. He's hitting .210.. for 3 months.

b_a_p: I don't know that I'd call a guy w/ a career .273 average, & has never hit .300 or better for a season, a "high average hitter". Be that as it may, I'm not as surprised as others that J-Roll has been slumping, although the degree of the slump is worse than I expected. Keep in mind Jimmy's '02 (.245/.306) & '03 (.263/.320) seasons, which were unimpressive enough to launch the "should someone else bat leadoff" debate long before it returned in '09. The point being, Rollins has had incredibly mediocre years before, so the prospect of him having a similarly bad, or even worse, year now is hardly outlandish.

Feels like a win tonight, then they take it out on the ridiculous Mets. Time to act like champions. Let's go.

0 for 28

Whoever this Weitzel guy is, that kind of positivity doesn't belong on this here blog.

G-Town: It's a real stretch to find precedent in a guy's 2002/2003 seasons, when he has subsequently had 5 consecutive seasons in which his averages ranged from .277 to .296. He's not a "high average" hitter in the sense that Ichiro is a high average hitter, but he has hit for high enough average in recent years that I do think it would be fairly shocking if he ended up having a dismal 2009 season. And, just as I write that, he grounds out . . .

Isn't one of the Keys to the Game to wait around until the late innings for the Braves' bullpen to walk four or five with the bases loaded? It worked once, anyway.

Hey. Still eight innings left to start acting like champions.

b_a_p: Even considering his age? I agree that this is a precipitous drop, but Jimmy's numbers were going to decrease eventually. Why not now?

Anyone else sick of Jimmy Rollins smiling and laughing in the dugout while his in the midst of an 0 for 28 slump now?

Sarge: Just wait 'til you see him pull up at the Bank in the "tricked out Red Bull MXT"!!!

G-Town Dave: Agreed, gotta love the question poised over at the700level.com if this might be the poorly timed athlete promotion in the history of sports.

Martin prado makes an out! Hallelujah!

*the most poorly timed

G-Town: Umm, because he's only 30. Like I said before, he COULD be done at 30, but it would be pretty unusual.

Christ, are we gonna complain again all night about Jimmy's attitude, saying he's smiling too much? Just complain about his performance. Stop with all the other crap.

Jack: Why not? He is supposedly one of the leaders on this team is he not? Is it wrong to ask for a look of frustration maybe? Maybe a sense of accountability? Maybe not riding around in souped up Red Bull cars, laughing after grounding out for an 0 for 28 slump, acting to the media like this slump is no big deal, still living off the World Series, acting like its a travesty if Maunel pulls him out of the leadoff spot,stating that it's only right he was the one who presented Obama the jersey because basically dancing around that he IS the Phillies, and just being the cocky primadonna he is... just to name a few? You know as a team leader, this may be lacksidasical way of carrying yourself on and off the field may be rubbing off possibly?

All I want is a simple "I'm not doing my job right now, and I need to get better" type quote. Just a little accountability. Is that too much to ask for?

Ugh...4 SO already. We know they can't pitch. If they can't hit then GAME=OVER.

Vazquez always seems to shut the Phils down. Figures he'd be on the mound tonight.

We've seen some impressive bunting from our opponents recently. Love that small ball.

I'd rather have Rollins smiling looking like he's "loose" and not all tensed up and aggravated.

I just personally don't care about that crap, and I think it's stupid. I want him to perform well. I don't care if he smiles, pouts, whatever. He doesn't owe it to us to show frustration or whatever. He owes it to us to get better.

If he shows frustration, but still doesn't hit, dpes that make an ounce of difference? Not to me.

Hey, I just noticed there's actually another manager who bats his .216 hitter in the leadoff spot. Of course, Cox might be forgiven, since Blanco's .216 average has occurred over just 42 PAs.

Yeah, that small ball really worked out well for them.

HOORAY!

WAHOO!

what the hell just happened?

J-ROLL! START DANCING, EVERYONE

Finally!!!

1-29!

1 for 29... Way to roll J-Roll

wow, that deserves multiple replays.

Big deal, a hit. What we want to see is more scowling.

Carrasco with a shutout through 4 up in Allentown. Thank goodness that guy's not pitching for the big club tomorrow night.

1for 29!

Nice. Let's score here. I mean, we want to score all of the time, but plating this one would be satisfying.

Seriously, Jimmy, it's not your hitting that matters. It's your attitude! The hit was OK, I guess, but what we really need is more yelling and screaming.

Franzke and LA are talking about furries. This is great.

tg082: I about dropped my drink when LA asked Franzke if he was a furry ... Classic! :-D

Happis really battling tonight

Funny game. The guy who couldn't make the rotation in March is the closest thing to astopper now.

I wonder if the Phils show any interest in Ryan Freel, who was DFA'd by the Cubs. They've had an eye on him in the past.

Braves playing Doobie Brothers on the PA??

I'd take Freel. Maybe then we could make that Dobbs for Batista and cash trade.

RSB: He's a RH batter, but can Freel play SS? I don't think he has (in MLB, anyway), & it'll be hard to dump Gnome unless his replacement can also back Jimmy up.

joe l: The Braves are playing the Doobie Brothers at Todd Zolecki's request. The organ player is in the press box and he has been requesting Michael McDonald. I'm still not sure why.

Vasquez is a quality starter but man this offense is just punchless right now. Like last June & July - no HRs, no runs.

Well, that'll make "Kotchman's Crotchmen" happy ... :-S

WTF - How does this pitching staff manages to turn powerless hitters like Kotchman and turn him into Babe Ruth?

229 ABs and 3 HRs (2 against the Phils).

G-town: Let Feliz be Rollins' SS backup. That's no reason to not go after a better player.

Kotchman's power numbers:

Phils' staff - 35 ABs and 2 HRs
Rest of MLB - 193 ABs and 1 HR

I guess that makes Lopez our stopper by default.

This team can't manufacture a run to save their lives.

Have seen you? - Ruiz's offense. Now hitting .169 since June 1st with a .470 OPS.

At least Happ turned the lineup over for next inning.

Happ turns the lineup over :)

Huh. Happ earned himself a World Series ring before he got his first Major League hit.

AMAZING!!!!

Red Bull!!!!!!!!!!!!

J-Roll is back boys and girls

Highly unlikely 2 out rally effort there - Happ, Jimmy.

Man I can't remember a single bounce going the Phils way this series.

Escobar committed some grand theft larceny there...

When was the last time Jimmy had 2 or more hits in a game?!

MPN - Yeah it wasn't hit hard but Escobar caught that flare behind 2B up the middle. Just one of those series where all of the crappy flares drop for the Braves and a couple of balls go out that just don't for the Phils. Tough series.

If he had gotten really angry instead of smiling after the first bat, Jimmy would have hit 2 home runs instead of 2 singles.

kilbillrain: Jimmy went 3-4 on 18 June vs. Toronto, which happens to be the game before his 0-28 streak began.

June 18th vs. the Jays, 3-4, 1R, 1RBI.

kill - June 18th. It had been a while.

Happ @ 71 pitches (47S/24B) through 5 so far. Can we get a full 7 out of him tonight?

That was also the last game he had a hit in before tonight....

Not that anyone cares, but I'm stuck at Logan airport, delayed for a flight to Pittsburgh. I never thought I'd say this, but thank god for MLBtv ...

Using Boingo George?

Hmmm...how many of us thought he had broken the spell on the 18th? I think Ill reserve judgment until after the Mutts series...

I am using Boingo. Another thing to be thankful for that work picks up the Internet tab wherever I am. Boingo account is actually pretty clutch.

On to more serious stuff. Happ really getting it done tonight. Some run support would be nice.

I was just reading the comment from Indiana Sarge about Rollins smiling in the dugout. What would you like him to do? Do you think if he stops smiling he'll start hitting?

McCarthy: "The Phillies are the only team in the division that's scored more runs than they've given up. That's unbelievable in this day and age."

What does this day and age have to do with it?

Vazquez is cooked, how many pitches has he thrown to Utley and Werth?

Dear God that was close.

Dobbs!

Greg Dobbs, Professional Hitter ...

Great job by Chase, too! :-)

Well, Charlie was right about Dobbs needing at-bats.

Alright. Cox with a move one batter too late.

Happs' fixin to outlast Vasquez. He deserves a few runs here.

Gotta love Chase. Gamer.

Awesome play. Wasn't it Chase who knocked McCann out for a while last season?

RSB: Mr. Met has said some dumb things, but that's right up there w/ the very dumbest. With each passing day I'm more grateful for the Franzke & LA option.

RSB - Who knows. The amount of common mistakes that McCarthy makes each broadcast are really pretty astounding. There are at least 3-4/night and some nights there are several. Just a poor broadcaster who know only doesn't bring much from an analysis standpoint but makes a bunch of gaffes with the play by play with the wrong name, inning, etc.

Casey: I thought it was Victorino. Didn't Chase knock out Molina? Or was that Bruntlett?

There have been more than a few catchers taken out over the last couple of seasons.

Nice job Feliz. Besides Utley, he has been really the only Phils' player who has been pretty consistent offensively all year.

If Ruiz were swinging a tree trunk, he might have had a shot at that 1-0 pitch.

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