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Saturday, July 25, 2009

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Phils reject Happ/Drabek/Brown proposal.

Rube is going to regret passing on this. The Phils will be lucky to hold off the Braves with this ragtag bullpen for a few weeks when no starter can go more than 6. Get Hallday and you only need to worry about the bullpen the other 4 days.

If they don't make a deal, and it is verified in some way that they could have made that deal, I'm going to be pissed.

How could you not acquire the best pitcher in baseball for one middle of the rotation starter (at what seems to be the peak of his trade value) and two prospects.

It does not make sense.

If you trade prospects now for established players, you can get young players back into your system later by trading proven veterans -- AFTER you've won two more WFCs.

All this hand-wringing about raiding the AA and AAA teams is driving me crazy.

Doc is a stud. He will improve both the starting rotation AND the bullpen because he pitches so many complete games/goes deep into so many games.

He's a gamer - and will only improve the clubhouse.

It's all posturing. Should Rube accept the first offer without trying to negotiate at all? You gotta haggle. It some countries it's considering insulting not to do so. You're a sucker if you take the first offer.

If the Phils and Jays go back and forth several times and the Jays still won't budge, then Rube will have to decide whether or not to up the ante or pass on the deal.

Plus, I don't know that I entirely believe all these reports. How do we know it's not just something to make other teams jump in and up their offer or act fast?

The deal is far from dead. Rube countered their first official offer, as any normal GM would do. They'll figure it out.

If you're Rube, you gotta ask yourself..."How much is too much?"

Who knows what the thinking is. If they were willing to spend the money in a couple of years, maybe they might wait for Halladay to become a FA after the 2010 season and still keep all of their prospects too. The Phillies hate watching prospects go elsewhere and thrive, but let's face it...what are the odds that all of these kids end up MLB All Stars?

don't know if anybody here watches south park, but i just got this mental image of rube as cartman on the phone with jp ricciardi:

"jp, you're breakin' my balls here man, breakin' my balls."

sell the farm, auntie ann

Although Halladay is obviously the best pitcher available, the Phillies are presumably looking at other options, as well. To me, Jarrod Washburn is probably the best of these options, but the Mariners are right on the threshold between contention and non-contention. Another game or two lost in the standings might be enough to induce the Mariners to make Washburn available. Hence, I have taken to rooting against the Ms, and for the RedSox and Angels.

I'm on record here as saying that Happ will be a very good future Big League pitcher. His peripherals will stay the same or get better in the future, even if his ERA and Wins normalize.

However, there is another way to look at the scenario. The Phillies are almost playing with found money. At the beginning of the year, Happ was considered a #5, and started in the bullpen. Drabek wasn't listed as one of the Phillies top prospects. Brown is the only top prospect from the off season who continues to garner heavy praise, despite his hand injury.

What would people have said if I told you at the beginning of the year that the Phillies would be able to pick up Halladay (in top form) for Happ, Drabek, & Brown? If someone out there says no, they are not being honest.

Shot in the dark: We end up dealing Drabek, Carrasco, Brown & Donald.

3 of the 4 would probably be on their 25 man roster next year.

Washburn's another LHP...do we really want to do that?

Plus, his FIP is 3.73. A little bit less impressive than his ERA.

As an add on to my previous post:

The Phillies thinking might be to get another first (Lee)or second tier pitcher (Harang) for less and maybe wait the year and a half for Halladay to become a FA. By then, Moyer will be on his last year and Myers may be gone too. The money to sign him will be available and the farm will remain intact.

At this point, I will be royally pissed if another team swoops in and outbids us at the last second...Last year I never expected us to get Sabathia or Harden so it wasn't a big deal when we didn't. But with all the build up, there will be a major letdown if it doesn't happen.

Lets not forget a deal for halladay would add a decent chunk to the payroll. Yes I know we have some stuff coming off the books at the end of the year, but i think most if not all of that savings is tied up in raises to current players. If they do this deal, they will most likely raise prices at the park for next year, perhaps a little higher then they originally planned. It's a decent business decision so let's all be patient. I think there gonna do it, personally, but as everyone has stated, you always reject the first formal offer. I have confidence in rube. He's a smart guy( i think).

question for bl - it's been claimed that philly is halladay's preferred destination if he gets traded. if true, does anyone think that counts for anything? does that influence ricciardi at all?

Abc: No. As long as he goes to a team he thinks can contend, he's gonna approve the trade, whether thats the phils, or another contender.

To abc: Not one bit. I doubt Ricciardi gives a damn about Halladay's preferences unless it comes down to Halladay outright refusing a trade. Otherwise, sending him to his 5th preference over his 1st means nothing.

Another deep playoff run will more than pay for any increase in salary (not saying that they won't still raise prices).

Beyond that, Rube has the nickname "The Negotiator" for a reason...he'll get it done and at a decent price I think.

Stark is saying the Jays stance is no deal w/o Happ & Drabek.

ESPN's coverage

Jayson Stark: The Phils "are not going to trade both Happ and Drabek in this deal. I'm hearing they have a list of 7 or 8 names they're batting back and forth, trying to figure out which pieces they can fit together to make this deal work."

For no reason whatsoever, and quite irrationally, I would like to see Lopez drill Holiday. Of course, it would be easier if he was batting no. 3, but that's my sentiment for the day.

Of course he is...he's Toronto's official mouthpiece and has been for the past 2 weeks.

Its all posturing on both sides.

Even better Hugh, he should drill him in the wrist and put him out of commission for the rest of the year...that'd show him!

~not serious~

Didn't Stark write a book on Phillies championship? He's a 'mouthpiece'?

So far he has been for this trade (which I find odd). He has stated that while he grew up in Philly, he stopped being a Phillies fan when he became a reporter.

Shouldn't you be objective if you're a reporter?

HH -

I get the haggling aspect. You gotta negotiate. But I'm still saying that if it turns out that they could have had Doc for Happ, Drabek, and Brown, and they don't pull the trigger, I'll be pissed.

It hasn't been all that often that my hometown team has had, unarguably, one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Just purely from the angle of being able to watch him pitch, even beyond what it means for our WFC chances for the next two years, I want to see this deal get done.

Mets are just snakebitten this year: John Maine was shutdown for the season right when they thought he was about to be back.

The "Halladay At All Costs" crowd conveniently ignores or discounts three very important factors:

(1) Halladay could, if traded to the Phillies, demand a trade at the end of this season. No, it's not likely ... but the possibility of this being a 2-3 month rental is there, nonetheless.

(2) Halladay has already stated that he will not sign an extension w/ any club he is traded to in favor of testing the free agent market in 2011.

(3) There is almost ZERO historical precedent for a move such as this one resulting in a Championship for the club acquiring the "name" player.

Personally, I see the Phillies as a team succeeding despite being beset by pitching injuries (esp. in the bullpen), & players performing far below their capabilities (Rollins, Hamels, Lidge). I'd rather take my chances w/ what's there now, even if it lessens the chance of repeating, in favor of coming back strong & healthy w/ Minor League options intact in 2010.

****Shouldn't you be objective if you're a reporter?****

Of course but its fairly clear that Toronto is feeding him propaganda. Just as Heyman tends to do it for both NY teams and Gammons does it for Boston.

Can we please get Lugo out today? What was that graphic last night, he's hitting .400+ against the Phillies. For crap's sake.

At least if you think Happ, Drabek, and Brown is too much, then offer Happ and Drabek and one of the other prospects. Trading Happ or Drabek shouldn't be the deal-breaker here, IMO.

Offer Happ, Drabek and Jason Donald.

I'd probably do that deal though I'm sure the BJs wouldn't.

*pulls hair out*

G-town,

How much precedent is there for a team to win the championship with a #1 that has performed badly all year, a #2 with career stats like Blanton, and a #3 who's a rookie that was generally projected as a back-end starter?

****(3) There is almost ZERO historical precedent for a move such as this one resulting in a Championship for the club acquiring the "name" player.****

That is continually mentioned by everyone but what is the precedent of a defending WS Champion acquiring such a player. The teams that get a big name guy usually fail because they had other issues that made them borderline to begin with. Milwaukee and LA last year are perfect examples of this...both Sabathia and Manny carried them to the playoffs (something that arguably wouldn't have happened without either). I mean does Milwaukee make it without Sabatahia? Probably not, the Mets probably beat them out for the WC. Does LA make it or do the DBacks hang on to the division? I'm guessing that the DBacks would have won had Manny not shown up and hit .400 for 2 months.

Also, G-town. Succeeding as the Phils have done so far this year means performing pretty badly in series' against good teams and getting a lot of wins against bad teams.

Hey, the record is what it is - but do you really think that they project to do well once they get into the playoffs?

Of course, I should add that last year I was absolutely convinced that they'd go NOWHERE in the post-season if they didn't pick up a top of the rotation starter.

Way to bear down and come back to get Holliday.

Can someone please teach McCarver how to pronouce "Ruiz"? If I hear him say "Roowizz" one more time I'm going to punch myself in the face.

phlipper: Unless Halladay is going to pitch every game of every potential post season series, those weaknesses will still be there.

With the bullpen a hospital ward, Hamels & Lidge pitching the way that the have & the bench a complete joke, I don't think the Phillies are that much of a postseason threat as it is. Acquiring Halladay will not change any of those things, but will hurt the club's prospects for success in the very near future.

I've said it before & I'll say it again: If the Phils make a deal for Halladay it means anything less than a repeat WFC = Failure. Why gamble everything on a very slim chance of right now when you can afford, having already won it all, to stay stocked & competitive for the next 2+ years?

Smoked that one...right at Schumaker unfortunately.

Because when you have a shot to legitimately contend for a WS, you have to take it.

There's no prize for 2nd place.

Is Utley EVER gonna get a day off?

gotta love vic's speed...

who's to say if we acquire halladay we don't ship him somewhere next summer for a comparable haul? not likely, sure, but something to think about...

NEPP: Once they get a backup infielder who's not a complete offensive disaster? That's my guess, anyway.

Time to be a star, Ryno.

NEPP: And what I'm saying is, this team has so many issues that acquiring Halladay does not appreciably change the Phillies' chances of repeating ... not only that, but the prospective cost, in terms of talent & money, makes it a bad deal.

G-town,

Obviously, Doc would mean a highly improved chance of winning two additional games in any post-season series and possibly three games.

Adding him to the rotation would go a long way to maximizing what you could get out of the bullpen this year.

Getting Doc does not necessarily mean that the team won't have young talent in future years. As drake says, if you want to, you can trade him next year for a similar haul. And in future years the Phils will have a lot of very highly-valued veterans that they can trade for young talent if needed.

This notion that only by holding on to unproven prospects and the Phils assure themselves of being competitive in future years is based on a false dichotomy. They can let go of their young prospects and still remain competitive in future years.

Howard has not impressed so far at the plate this year.

If you think you've got a real possibility of winning it all either this year or next w/ Halladay, I think you gotta do it. If he goes to free agency, who cares! 2 WS championships in 3 years? That would be absolutely incredible & truly a golden age for the Phils. He leaves, take the 2 picks and be happy.

Trading those guys in this trade will certainly hurt but there's still lots of upside with the guys left. + it's not like we're not gonna be drafting anyone else along the way.

"acquiring Halladay does not appreciably change the Phillies' chances of repeating ."

That doesn't make sense to me. You repeated this statement so I'll repeat my rebuttal. Acquiring Doc gives them significantly better chances in two games of each post-season series, possibly three.

At least Raul can get a hit with RISP.

Raaaaúúúúúúúúúúúúúúúúllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-D

phlipper: Tell me you can't envision this -- Halladay starts Game 1 of the NLDS. He pitches 8 innings & gives up 2 runs, 1 earned. Unfortunately, the Phillies offense has suddenly gone cold (remember last October?), & only manages to score 1 run itself. Charlie decides to bring in Lidge for the 9th, & he promptly gives up 2 more runs. Bako, Gnome & Mayberry represent the Phils' last chance in the bottom of the inning ...

Well, you get the idea.

Mayberry walkoff?

Vote for Pedro.

PEEEEEEEEEEEETE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-D

G-Town,

I'm a Phillies fan. Of course I can envision that.

But I can't agree with what you said earlier. Again, their post-season chances are markedly improved by acquiring Doc. That seems self-evident.

Does anyone know how to program a macro for posting Raaaaaaaaaauuuuullll!

NEPP: Ha! I love the optimism ... it's just not in my nature. :-)

Wow, Feliz has come up with so many big hits this year. Anyone who had him hitting .300 back in March, let's see some hands...

Wow. "Ludwig makes the one-handed catch."

Pedro has been so good that he's silenced clout on matters about Pedro.

You caught that? I was thinking to myself "How many catches in baseball AREN'T one-handed?"

phlipper: Agree to disagree, then. Unless Roy is going to pitch a complete game shutout & hit a HR every time out, I'm not taking anything as self evident.

g-town - you are being absurd. you really think halladay doesn't give any team a better chance to win a game than a league average pitcher? yes, teams can lose games when he pitches, but the CHANCES of getting a W are much higher with Halladay on the bump.

Ro-Lo makes me nervous...just sayin'.

Reason's daughter: A game, yes. The whole thing, no. And he's not gonna pitch every game of every series.

G-Town just likes to bitch...let him go. He's really good at it.

An amazing ONE-HANDED catch by Albert Pujols!!!

So increasing the chances of winning 2-3 games in a series by pitching halladay doesn't logically increase the chances of winning the whole thing?

G-Town - Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but wouldn't having a better chance to win one or two games of a playoff series result in a better chance of winning the entire series?

G-Town's stance doesn't make sense to me. He's just finding a way to double down on his "don't trade for Hallday" stance.

Reason's daughter - Great minds.

bed beard: it makes sense, you just have to abandon logic

Also, Halladay has never pitched in the postseason. He could be the next C.C. Sabathia for all anyone knows.

Sabathia's issue was more of complete and utter overuse last year, not an inability to pitch in the playoffs.

jesus..KK is back in the bullpen..You know we have reached mediocrity when he is out there..

Just a bit suprised that the author of this web site was not on top of this development

Wahhhh!

WTF LUGO... Does not compute.

What was Hamels' playoff record heading into last year's postseason?

You guys really don't know about two-handed catches? Ask Luis Castillo to explain the difference.

Rodrigo owns Pujols. Spread the word.

@85 - rodrigo is pujols' daddy?

Good work Ryan.

the jays better not ask for rodrigo and happ (tongue firmly entrenched in cheek)

NEPP: Sabathia pitched 12 fewer innings in '07 than he did in '08, & sucked in the playoffs then, too. Also, Halladay is on pace to pitch almost exactly as many innings this year as Sabathia did last year.

i think we may really have something here in rodrigo lopez.

Okay, this is getting ridiculous with these ONE HANDED catches.

Ugh, what a catch.

*sigh*

I'm already so tired of Rick Ankiel ...

****(3) There is almost ZERO historical precedent for a move such as this one resulting in a Championship for the club acquiring the "name" player.****

Didn't the 92 Jays give up future HOF kent for David Cone (Cone being the name player) and ended up winning the WS?

G-Town, clearly your proximity to CBP is messing with your thinking.

Wasn't CC being thrown out on 3 days rest for the last month of the season or so?

this was from a 2007 espn report - hmmm

PHOENIX -- Rick Ankiel says any drugs he received in 2004 were prescribed by a licensed physician to help him recover from reconstructive elbow surgery.

Ankiel, whose comeback is one of the great stories of this season, initially acknowledged human growth hormone was among those medications during a brief session with reporters Friday, then refused to list his various prescriptions.

Just a thought but if the BlueJays are able to trade Scott Rolen to the Reds and thus, not pay his $11 million salary next year, that would seriously affect their NEED to trade Halladay.

Could be bad, eh?

What the hell was that?

Brutal Ryan, Brutal.

Airmailed to Ibanez.

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