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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

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How old is Carrasco now?

Carrasco is going to be 30 by the time he comes up at this rate!

He turned 22 in March. He's still a young prospect agewise.

A damn shame on the rain as it'd be nice for him to be scouted well.

From the last thread:

I know he's not a top prospect or even really considered much of one at all but you cannot help but be impressed by Steve Susdorf so far:

42 of 101 on the year. Only 5 BB but also only 13 SO. Yeah, he's too old for Clearwater but he's batting over .400 (.416 to be exact). Perhaps they should promote him to see if its all just him being too old for Clearwater.

curt, in AWH's defense, he pointed out over a month ago that the Braaves had the pitching to cause problems and be reconned with.

oh wait....that was me....or was it?

Good news: J.A. Happ makes SI's 'Who's Hot, Who's Not' list. Bad news: They mistakenly run a picture of Jack Taschner.

JW: That's bad juju man. Bad juju.

I wouldn't be surprised if Happ breaks something using the toaster in his house now.

Better news: Since the 4th inning of today's game, Paul Bako is hitting .333. Time to start him every day?

As I've said before, arguing about whether Moyer is "washed up" is not a baseball debate; it's a semantical debate. The only relevant question is this one: It's August 1. The Phillies have not traded for a starting pitcher, but Pedro has pitched well in the minors and is ready to be called up. Whose spot in the rotation does he take? Or, to put it differently, who do you believe is likely to be the weakest link in our rotation going forward? You don't have to "declare" anyone "washed up" to make this assessment.

Though it's a semantical debate, I must ask clout this. If Moyer finishes the year with the same 5.65 ERA that he has today, would you agree that he's "washed up," or would you feel fine with bringing him back for the Phillies' rotation in 2010?

The Braves are a good team and are chock full of good pitching; however, the Giants are colder than a proverbial witches teat right now, and don't have a white hot offense to begin with, so it's a perfect storm of events for Atlanta. It's all about timing.

I hope the Pads continue to look as pathetic against the Phils tomorrow in South Philly as they just looked against the Fish. Here's hoping they aren't too p*ssed from having to fly all the way across the country to make up one lousy game.

Hopefully the Giants stay cold through the weekend.

Of slight concern on Drabek: Leftys are hitting a brisk .339 off him so far at AA. That's not exactly encouraging going forward. I hope its more of a sample size issue. Given his dropoff in Ks as well, he may need a bit more seasoning than we hope.

So the Red Sox get Chris Duncan ( a solid platoon guy, and left-hander off the bench) and either cash or another player for Julio Lugo.

The guy who many on here said could be had for a fringe prospect because the Red Sox are dying to get rid of him. Not only did they pay the contract but they got back a decent piece. this despite the absolute assertion that they would take anything because they wanted to get rid of him.

Anyone want to finish their crow now, or take it home?

Wow, the Mets lost 2 of 3 to the Nats. Yikes.

Sort of makes you feel bad for being upset that the Phils lost a series to the Cubs...oh wait.

I don't want to gloat because it bad form and all but I'm sure most Mets fans would agree with the following:

Seriously, WTF is up with the Mets? Are they the most dysfunctional franchise in baseball right now? Also, apparently Peter Gammons made a comment that that crazy VP deliberately fed Heyman that BS rumored Halladay deal. They are seriously f#*#ed up right now.

Not that that's a bad thing.

NEPP: Drabek definitely needs more seasoning. I'd like to see the K/BB numbers improve over the next month, and over the first couple months of next year. Once he shows he can be dominant in double-A like he was at Clearwater, then we can discuss his arrival in Philadelphia.

Going back a few threads to last night's game where Bay Area Phan posted about MVPTommy's google alert going off after Ibanez made that sliding catch:

Damn it, that was funny. I laughed out loud for about five seconds straight and my wife, who vaguely knows of this blog, asked me what was so funny.

My response: "Never mind, it would take 10 minutes to explain and you still wouldn't think it's funny."

NEPP: Yeah, supposedly the VP also had a shouting match with K-Rod and some story I read said he was the primary force behind getting Willie Randolph fired. He's a nutbar.

They are like the Oakland Raiders of baseball in terms of organizational dysfunction.

Drabek tonight so far:

6.0IP 3H 1R 1ER 1BB 5SO 0HR

Kendrick's final pitching line:

Kendrick, K P (L, 6-6, 3.58) 7.1IP 9H 5R 5ER 0BB 2SO 1HR

Pigs lose 3rd straight at Charlotte 6-3

He had a bad 4th but put up goose eggs otherwise except in the 8th. Left the game in the 8th with a runner on who scored after he left.

in the battle of former Phils, Coste just tied the game up with an RBI double double in the bottom of the 9th vs Ryan Franklin...

Scott Mathieson's numbers so far this year, making his long road back from serious arm injuries:

10 IP, 6 hits, 0 ER, 3 BB's and 12 K's.

Reportedly his velocity has been pretty good too, early on.


Chris Coste got a big hit tonight for Houston.

Just skimmed the comments, but are people really upset that the Phillies lost today? It shouldn't even be thought about. Move on.

Hi this is Bob Karigan, this is the first time I have posted since that "incident" when many mean posters on here made fun of my father dying from being an alcoholic. I took some time off here and thought about my life and realized I should still post and ignore those mean goons, so I am back everybody!

any1 see the tony bernazard fight thing with the mets? gotta feel bad for those fans by now

Mathieson: Even though it's A ball, that's encouraging. I heard he was hitting 97mph. Still only 25 years old (right?).

Drabek update:

8.0IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 7SO 0HR

Reading batting in the top of the 9th and leading 7-2.

We're gonna trade Drabek for Halladay.

BAP: I'm still waiting for CJ to answer my question about this result, which is quite similar to Moyer's. But he's hiding.

4.2 IP, 4 R
4 IP, 7 R
7 IP, 1 R
6 IP, 5 R
5 IP, 1 R

As for your question, I would agree that if Moyer ends the season with an ERA around 5.50, he lkely should be replaced. Now a question for you, BAP, if Moyer finishes the season with an ERA of 5.01 would you say he should be cut and the Phillies eat his salary for 2010? Because he couldn't possibly improve from an ERA of 5.01, right?

Jack, apparently Toronto had some brass out in Altoona tonight and they had to like what they saw.

Can't see that being a straight up trade however. We'd probably have to throw a couple of other players their way and maybe they'll send one back.

My hunch is the Phils buy out Moyer next year and we won't have to worry much about whether he'll improve or not.

Based on skill level at this point in their careers, I give Hamels a lot better shot of turning it around this year than Moyer

limoguy: Of course. But I think the talk about Drabek being "untouchable" is just talk. I think we're going to trade him, and some other guys, and get Roy Halladay.

Bed's Beard: You think Hamels will turn it around before Moyer? Good call. Me too. I'll say it right now: Hamels will get back to form in the 2nd half and start to dominate again. He was straight up unlucky in the 1st half. His K/BB numbers were the best of his career. His HRs weren't up all that much. He merely got unlucky on hits in the park. If that luck evens out, he will get back to being the ace we know.

Phils tack on another W against the Padres. Two teams going in different directions, as the saying goes.

limoguy: Trap game. Hope Hamels has gotten his stuff together. The BP could use him going more than 7IP if at all possible.

Truth, before you ask anyone here to eat crow, I suggest you get your facts straight.

AWH merely repeated what Ken Rosenthal had written on foxsports.com.

For your benefit:

"The Red Sox, he said, recognize that Lugo is a "sunk cost," and would accept a fringe prospect for him in return. In other words, they are willing to assume the same financial burden that they would if they released him."

Here's the relevant link:

Source: BoSox willing to pay salary if Lugo is dealt


Sorry to spoil your party.

clout, very, very nice!!!

bap, be very careful about how you answer clout's question about Moyer having a 5.01 ERA.

clout: I would never say a player "couldn't possibly improve," but I WOULD say that the probability of a 47-year old pitcher improving upon his previous season would strike me as pretty low. If Moyer finished the year at 5.01, it would mean he had trended significantly upward over the last 2 1/2 months of the season. So I would probably conclude that it's not out of the question he could be serviceable next year. But I'm not sure I want to go into the season banking on a 47-year old starter, who had a 5.00 ERA the previous year and who "might" be serviceable.

The difference between a rotation with Halladay and without is a team that COULD win vs. a team that SHOULD win.

Best offense and defense in the NL + two #1 starters = money in the playoffs (on paper).

Right now, we've got a team that can mash + Hamels (assuming he regains form) and a bunch of wild cards (though calling Blanton a wild card at this point is shortchanging him a bit, with his pitching as of late) + a bullpen that doesn't inspire as much confidence in close games as it once did.

The Halladay acquisition squashes a lot of these flaws going into the playoffs. Halladay-Hamels going 1-2 in a short series (presumably at home) is incredibly imposing, and certainly a combo that no team in the NL can match. In a 7 game series, you've got games 1, 2, 5 and 6 covered by two aces (or 4, 5 and 7 if short rest is needed in desperation). It widens the bullpen in that it allows more arms to be ready in the 8th and 9th if needed (along with Halladay eating innings in August and September to keep them rested for October).

Acquiring someone like Halladay also gives you the option of shifting some of the 5th starter candidates to the bullpen for long-relief and trimming the excess futility (Durbin) at the bottom-rung. Pedro would be a long-relief possibility, as would Rodrigo Lopez and even Jamie Moyer (who could be used in matchup situations).

Simply put, the Halladay acquisition makes this team, hands-down, the best team in the NL, possibly in all of baseball, and the amount the team improves will not be measured simply in his stats. Media and fan scrutiny will be at an all-time high, Hamels may feel challenged as the 'King of the Hill' in Philly, and all kinds of new pressure will come along with being EXPECTED to win the league. The entire dynamic of this team will change for the next year and a half.

Would you give up a future of a sustainably good rotation (Drabek, Carrasco, possibly Happ)that will compete, but not dominate, for 1.5 years of an unmatchable 1-2 punch and possible dynasty?

As a fan, after a WFChampionship, I want greatness. I would do the deal. But I can understand the hesitation, as greatness isn't simply anointed (as we've seen with the Yankees' high-priced rosters and failed 1-2 punches) but earned. Greatness is never achieved, however, without risk: dealing Drabek, Taylor and others is certainly a risk, but the reward, in my opinion, is totally f'ing worth it.

On a side note, some have mentioned Lidge as a problem, we can't win it all with him, etc. I agree that his reliability isn't exactly off-the-charts, but from what I've heard Cholly say in various interviews, Lidge will not be pulled unless he is genuinely too injured to pitch. If Cholly has stuck with Bruntlett this long, he will not give up on Lidge after his performance down the stretch last year. It's just wishful thinking. A deal may be done to acquire a Qualls or someone similar who could form a nice trio with Madson and Romero as imposing setup men, but that person will not threaten Lidge's job. People need to get used to the idea that the Phils will ride or die with Lidge in the postseason, deadline deal or no deadline deal. I can think of worse positions to be in, however.

Also . . . I'll take a stab at the question for CJ. The questions were: Should the guy with the 5-game trend you listed be replaced? And the follow-up question was: "Or are you a hypocrite?"

Obviously, that guy is Hamels, and there is no hypocrisy in saying: No. He should not be replaced. You don't replace a guy because of his stat line. You replace him because you have lost confidence in his ability going forward, or because you simply have 5 other options in whom you are more confident. A pitcher's stat line is relevant only insofar as it is a predictor of what you can expect of him going forward.

As CJ pointed out, Moyer's peripherals -- as well as his ERA -- are considerably worse than Hamels'. Hamels has also been a star pitcher for almost all of his 2 1/2 year career, whereas Moyer -- except for last year -- has been a back-end starter for about the last 5 years. Finally, and most importantly, I don't know how anyone can, with a straight face, claim that a 25-year old pitcher having a down year and a 46-year old pitcher having a down year are similarly situated in terms of assessing the player's future likelihood of success.

Truth Injection: I'd look at Duncan's numbers the past 1.5 seasons before gloating. .711 OPS last season, .687 so far this season. That's not even a decent piece. The teams basically traded problem for problem.

Nice to see that guys around here will admit they were wrong when situations play out.

rolo- people on here said the Phillies could get Lugo for a fringe prospect AND the Red Sox would pay the whole salary. That almost never happens. A team will either pay the contract and take a better piece back, or not pay the contract and take a fringe guy in return. On here many said a combination of both scenarios would happen.

When presented with the normal situations people still held firm telling the other side they were wrong.

Fast forward a few days later and and the Red Sox pick up the entire deal and get back a guy with Major League service and either cash or another player in the deal. Does that sound like the Red Sox are taking "whatever" to get rid of Lugo>

yosoyseasn: Duncan has a career split of .851 against right-handers. That is why the Red Sox got him. He's nothing more than a platoon guy who will be a left-handed bat off the bench. The Cardinals absolutely needed a shortstop and they gave up what they had to so they could acquire him. They had a bit of a logjam in the outfield so they gave up depth for strength at another position.

Yo, new thread

Wow. It's nice to have a single, one page thread that clearly demonstrates that The Truth Injection is little more than a small minded, loud mouthed buffoon.

Way to make yourself look like an idiot, pal. :)

test

Why don't the Phillies and Blue Jays just make the trade and get it over with already?

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