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Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Comments

Some type of move for a pitcher needs to be made, whether that is Halladay or not. Though he has pitched well, I'm not sure I'm comfortable with the rookie Happ making a playoff start.

I'd love Halladay, but not at the price of mortgaging our future. People keep saying "win now", well they are winning now and I'd prefer if they keep winning in years to come. Trading one of Taylor, Brown, or Drabek is okay, but not 2 and certainly not all 3. Rube is sure to be tested here, but he'd be wise to just go get a decent righthanded bench bat because Mayberry and Bruntlett are beyond horrible, not opinion, but fact.

If you only plan on winning the World Series this season, sell the farm for Halladay.

If you plan on winning and making the playoffs for years to come, keep the prospects.

Very tough decision indeed.

Man, our can't-miss prospects are so good, I can't wait until 2012! In fact, instead of mortgaging the future, let's DOUBLE DOWN on the future instead, and just trade high on all of our stars! Think of all the "can't-miss prospects" we could get by trading Utley, Victorino, Werth, and Rollins! In fact, everybody on the team should be on the market except for J. A. Happ, who has a legitimate chance at never losing another game in his career. I heard St. Louis wanted to trade Pujols for Howard, but we nixed the deal because we would have had to give up JASON KNAPP, who scouts say could be the next J. A. Happ!!!

JW - Disagree about this year. Doing nothing is not the way to go. I can see passing on Lee/Halladay if the price is too high even if that would be the best way to improve their playoff chances.

At the minimum, they should get another bullpen option in case Lidge falters or is hurt (no one mentions it but it isn't that crazy to think that Lidge might not be able to make it through the rest of the season) and a right-handed bat off the bench.

You always have to give a little to get a little but neither one of those needs requiring emptying the minor league till to do so.

I don't necessarily agree with the strategy posted in the header, but it's one angle worth discussing that hasn't been given the same attention.

sifl: very balanced, thoughtful commentary there.

I love the Chad Qualls suggestion of yesterday. He may not be dominant, but he's a proven closer. If we added him, and Myers to the BP, and possibly Lopez/Pedro for the playoffs, you could see a scenario in which the Phils shorten most games.

A lot has been made about the need for high quality pitching in short series. Has anyone other than me noticed the Phils hit every good pitcher? CC/Lowe/Billingsley/Kazmir/Garza last playoffs; Lily last night. We need quality starts with our offense, and not necessarily complete games every time out.

MG: I agree - moves have to be made. They may not need to make a big splash with Halladay. But bullpen help, a RH bat, and a veteran pitcher could help a lot.

I am really tired of this future B.S. How quickly we forget the past. We did not win a World Series for some 26 years and now we have a shot to win 2 in a row and we are just going to pass? Did we all forget that this is Philadelphia and this is the Phillies? While planning for this awesome future it just may never happen. People could get injured we could get screwed like we typically do, who knows? But we do know that we have the best lineup in baseball and we have a shot to add the best pitcher and baseball. We have the shot now.

Therefore it is a lot less risky to sell the farm than to keep it. Cause as we all know we may not get the chance for another 26 years.

Also I don't know why anyone should assume that if we sell the farm now we would be a bad team in future years. Ever hear of free agency?

Good point GMCarson We are winning now. We will win the NL East, and as everyone saw last year, make it to the playoffs and you have a chance of winning it all.

The thing about the Halladay trade is we are in the driver seat, we are the team that can make the trade, but we are still going to make the playoffs if we don't. Toronto wants to move Roy because he is going to leave anyway and they have no possiblity for the playoffs this year or next.

Lets not have Toronto hold us hostage.

Ricciardi is asking for the moon. No deal will get done unless he gets realistic.

Its said he wants a Bedard type deal but with better prospects...well that ain't gonna happen as everyone thought the Bedard deal was ridiculous at the time and Bavasi was fired in large part because of it.

again the quandary (not Condrey) about now or later

Baseball leaves so little room for error in getting into the postseason; even third or fourth best record in the league is not guaranteed a spot.

And the five game division series is a significant opportunity to stumble, even with a very good team.

So the bird in the hand argument carries some weight for me.

oh, well, maybe more later; gotta go to lunch

I can't wait for the deadline, when all of the should they or shouldn't they talk continues with the same people taking the same sides but after July 31 it will be "they should have" or "see i told you"

Barring a complete meltdown, this team makes the playoffs even if another roster move isn't made. But, will they beat LA in a 7 game series? If they get passed LA, will they beat the Yankees or the Red Sox. Without Halladay, not likely. With him, much MORE likely.

You have your core players - Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Hamels, Lidge - secured for two to three more seasons. If it takes two of Drabek/Taylor/Brown/Knapp to get Doc, get him. I don't understand why this is even a question!

Nope, not a tough decision at all for our conservative rookie GM. "Win the 2009 WS" is about 38th on Rube's list of priorities. Heck, he wouldn't even get credit if it happens.

Agree with those saying we need to make a move of some sort. The way I see it, there are 3 moves to improve the team: an Ace, a late inning bullpen arm (as in not someone like Durbin, Condrey, or Park), and right handed bench bat. I feel if you get the ace, you aren't as pressed to fill the other 2, but if no ace, it is very important to fill the other 2 needs.

On the ride to work this morning, Chuck Lamar was on 610 and had a couple interesting things to say. One was that one thing that the Braves had going for them during their stretch of division titles was the fact that their farm system was deep enough where they could hold onto a core of 3-4 players and trade other prospects and still have a strong system. I feel this is the position the Phils are in. Even in a trade for Halladay, assuming the deal is not totally outrageous and we don't trade all of our big 3, our farm system will still be deep and we won't be mortgaging our future as much as many think. He also said that Michael Taylor was an average outfielder, but had a huge arm. I had thought the scouting reports on him were that he was an above average outfielder? He also said he does not see Taylor as much of a basestealer in the majors. Of course, the morning crew did not ask about Brown, who I would have liked to hear his opinion of in comparison to Taylor.

Out of curiosity, who are the "two or three" Harangs that we have currently, as mentioned in the last thread? I see only one, Blanton.

The Phillies have my endorsement if they trade for Halladay, but I'm always guarded about big, popular moves like these.

Getting Roy Halladay doesn't equal a World Series championship.

Not getting Roy Halladay doesn't equal not winning the World Series.

We all know with Halladay the chances are substantially higher, but this team has a alright chance at repeating regardless.

Guys, Taylor, Carrasco, and Donald are rumored to be in the deal. So far, I'd say it's realistic. If it stays realistic, and we can move say D'Arnaud or a similar talent, in exchange for eating Halladay's contract, we should do it. If they want Drabek/Brown, and for us to eat it, we should say no thanks.

"Also I don't know why anyone should assume that if we sell the farm now we would be a bad team in future years. Ever hear of free agency?"

Unless you have the Yankees' payroll, you can't afford to address all your roster needs through free agency. You need to fill some key positions on the cheap, the way the Phillies have with Hamels, Werth, Vic, Ruiz, Madson, Happ, and Dobbs.

One more reason to like Halladay as a Phil: has held Manny to .266/.314/.443 with 6 GIDP in 86 lifetime PA.

Would be an improvement over last year, in one game, at least.

One thing to remember, and Charlie talked about this in 2007 as they were coming down the stretch, you can win in the regular season with hitting but in a short series it is the pitching that wins it. Those old Indians teams hit through the season but never won it all because they never has the pitching. Last year was the only year the phillies had the pitching in my lifetime and look what happened.
Also it is very tempting to let decent outings by Lopez, Happ, and Moyer lull you into thinking everything is ok. but it isn't enough and we all know this.
Winning the world series is the goal from here on out. It is very easy to be competitive in the wild card era. The phillies have been "good" or in it almost every year since 2001 and with revenue being what it is they will be able to contend down the road even without a few of their prospects.

Curt: is it possible though that, if he doesn't make this deal, he gets blamed for not winning?

It's a tough position. The praise will go to Gillick if they win. The blame will go to Amaro if they don't do this deal and they lose.

In that sense, it should be a priority.

If this deal gets done I think it will look like this:

a) either Carrasco or Drabek and
b) either Taylor or Brown plus
c) Donald and possibly one other less-heralded prospect.

I think the front office probably wants to hold onto Happ, and this deal does that plus still leaves them with one of two top pitching prospects and one of two top outfield prospects. I think if they give up more than this its too much, given the preference in the post-steroid era for young, cheap talent and the difficultly of re-signing Halladay.


Winter - Rube has upgraded and returned the WFC team, and they're 6 1/2 games up. Who's going to blame him if they don't win it all again? That's nuts.

I'm too used to following a winning team to risk throwing the future away to help ensure we get the perfect result in the present.

I want the chance to win a ws every year more than winning one this year.

gm-carson, I totally agree, "very tough decision indeed." Prospects are just that and maybe of the ones we have one maybe two will really be major impact players, but which ones? That's the problem isn't it. Will Taylor be the next Ted Savage or Andre Dawson? Is Drabek the next Ferguson Jenkins or Marty Bystrom? How do we know down the road who will blossom and who will bust?

By the same token, I don't see that Halladay would guarentee another World Series win? Make the odds better to get there, yes. I think we make the playoffs with or without him, but his playoff experience is nil. Should that be a concern? Should all the innings he's logged this year be a concern?

I'm firmly on the fence on this one, I can see both sides and as you said, a very tough decision. I'll be happy whichever way the Phils chose to go, not like I really have a choice.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: name another blockbuster trade in the last 5 years where a team received a superstar pitcher and it put them over the top?

It doesn't work that way. One player never makes that much of a difference by himself, especially when he only plays 1 in 5 days. It's different if you land someone like Manny Ramirez, he plays every day. But Halladay? For 2 months and some 60 games? He makes 12 starts for us, tops.

Who will we give up for that in exchange? A very good starter in J.A. Happ from the looks of things, maybe not an ace, but a 2/3 starter, sure. A very, very impressive prospect with the potential to be an ace in Drabek. Or Carlos Carrasco, who projects as a number 3. Or a couple of outfield prospects who are 5 tool players. Is Halladay worth that? A year of success or two, when these guys can keep us at the top of the division for years?

My answer is no, not if Riciardi is asking for the moon. Several trade rumor sites have repeated the story that Riciardi's demands are: give me the list of your prospects and I circle the 4 or 5 I want. The Phillies would be very, very foolish to make such a deal. Halladay's not worth their top 4 or 5 prospects. No player is. If it's 3, I can live with it. But not 4 top prospects.

A couple of thoughts:

While many have made a big deal about the Phillies record in interleague play against the big bad AL teams, I remind you that 11 of the 15 interleague games were played while Raul was on the DL (6/18 - 7/10).

The Phillies record while he was DL'd was 10-11, but does include the beginning of the current hot stretch.

Now, do not in any way construe this as an endorsement to "stand pat". I am on the record as to what I believe they should do.

However, last night Ibanez gave a typical demonstration of what his consistent bat means to this lineup.

Would the interleague record be better if Ibanez had been playing at full strength?

No one can say for sure, but I'd wager that it would have.

That said, the Phils would be a better team with a few additions, including a #1-2 SP.

People keep saying that the Phils need a top of the line BP arm, but do they really? Even if Lidge goes down, I'm relatively comfortable with a playoff BP of:
Madson, Myers, Pedro, Lopez, Romero, Eyre, Park, Condrey, Durbin, Bastardo.
Of course, if they can pick up a solid reliever that's better than those guys for a sack of balls...

The priority should be on getting an impact starter and right-handed bench bat. The bat will probably come in August, but the starter will need to come before the trade deadline.

"Unless you have the Yankees' payroll, you can't afford to address all your roster needs through free agency"

Our payroll is large enough to fill needs of the 3 overrated prospects that we would send to toronto. Notice the raul ibanez signing. Also i love how everyone says they would rather follow a winning team for a long period of time instead of winning the world series this year. As if the phillies are incapable of signing halladay to an extention and are cole hamels, victorino, utley, and howard all going to get a disease and die soon or something? Also how many of these fans have seen these prospects play and can say that they will even be good pros?

I think Harang is a lot like Lohse was a couple of years ago -- a league-average starting pitcher (over the past two years, anyway) on a staff that could use another one of those. I wouldn't pay a lot, but I still think he'd be an upgrade over hoping Moyer gets a friendly ump.

curt - You don't invest much then or deal with the sell-side analysts. Granted the Phils aren't a publicly-traded firm but Amaro is actually in a very difficult spot here. Absolute worst position in to be as an executive is to take over a firm that has reached its zenith.

In the market, that may be having several years of margins at 30% or more YOY or having dominated market share for quite some time. Couple of different ways to define that.

In baseball, it is winning the World Series. Phils just came off a World Series title and have won 2 straight NL East titles. Granted the Phils are likely to win another NL East title this year and make the playoffs again. I would define that as a successful season and I bet most posters on here would as well.

There are some though in the general public or media who would not necessarily reach that same conclusion. Maybe they would expect the Phils to win the NL or maybe even repeat as champs. Doesn't matter if it is incredibly hard or a rarity in baseball to do so. Those are the expectations of some - right or wrong.

If the Phils do win a championship this year or next, Amaro could bank on that and point to it as an accomplishment while he was the GM. Doesn't matter if the core of the team was primarily in place or really the same group of players.

Not how it works. The Phils will have won a championship ring under Amaro's watch and he get some good leverage out of that for quite a while. If the Phils only say make the playoffs this year and maybe once in '10 or '11 but don't go deep into the playoffs, people might question Amaro's ability to deliver the goods especially if this team likely get really changed/modified after the '11 season.

Yeah that is thinking ahead but I am sure is weighing very heavily on Amaro's mind. Basically - what do I need to do to get a championship ring this year or next vs. sacrificing my potential success in the more intermediate future?

Alby -- That was my comment. Just a rough estimate on the number of #4/#5 guys we already have (RoLo, Blanton, Pedro, Moyer). And that's not even counting Hamels' struggles, which we all expect/hope will end soon.

Harang doesn't really help us in any appreciable way, that's all. Just my admittedly unqualified opinion.

The whole win now OR remain contenders for a long time is, in some respects, a false choice.

At the very least, almost everyone important to the team this season will be back next season. So they will contend next year as they have this year, regardless of what prospects they trade.

However, there is no one on this team except Utley whose contract currently has him in Philly past 2011. As good as Taylor or Brown or Drabek or Carrasco may become, they're not all going to turn out to be stars, and even if they did they're not going to make up for the potential loss of this really fantastic core group. These guys are a once-in-twenty eight years collection of players.

My point is we don't know, even if they keep all their prospects, that they'll be able to remain contenders in the future. These players deserve a shot at winning it all again, so in that sense I hope they go get Halladay.

Harang is heads and tails away better than Moyer at this point (or Pedro) and probably Blanton too. Hell, even Hamels has struggled a bit.

Harang isn't a world-beater but people seem to forget this is a mediocre rotation at best yet. It is the offense (and defense to a lesser degree) that has carried this team almost all year.

With Ibanez back and JRoll getting on base again, they are a pretty damn impressive unit even with a couple of dinks on the bench.

"The lineup is crammed with killers. The starting pitching has stabilized to the point where it’s become something of a strength. The bullpen, decimated during interleague play, has regained its footing."

The only part of what's quoted above that is certain to stay true two months from now is the lineup. It is very much championship caliber. The starting pitching and bullpen, however, are not. Last year the pitching performed above expectations, especially the bullpen, and they continued to perform exceptionally in the playoffs, translating in a relatively easily obtained WFC. This year's team has mostly mashed it's way to first place, with some good spurts by the pitching but nothing consistent.

That formula doesn't win you anything in October. Going into the postseason with the current pitching is risky at best. More depth is needed in the bullpen and a horse like Halladay would make the bullpen more rested and better. With Brett Myers possibly coming back and the Phils looking at maybe adding another bullpen arm that will greatly increase their chances of being 'dynastic.'

This trade is once in a generation opportunity. Do it.

When the Red Sox traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett, they gave up a guy who reached the best possible scenario. Think they'd give back that 2007 trophy? We have no idea how these prospects will pan out, we have no idea what our team will be like in 5 years. If you can significantly upgrade your team for the next two pennant runs, you owe it to your players to make that move.

The reason to make the deal is the one that Assistant GM Proefrock pointed out to the Inquirer yesterday - the playoff rotation. If the playoffs started today, we'd play the Giants in the NLDS. Yes, our offense is great, but do we really want to match Lincecum/Cain/Johnson with Hamels/Blanton/Happ?

We won the WFC because of our pitching, period. Think back to all the RISP that were left stranded by our offense. I think at one point in the WS we were 1-23 with RISP and the one hit was an infield single that didn't even score the run. I don't think we can count on Hamels or Blanton to duplicate their playoff showings from '08, which means we need to upgrade the rotation to win another World Series

"If you only plan on winning the World Series this season, sell the farm for Halladay.

If you plan on winning and making the playoffs for years to come, keep the prospects."

What about next season WS? They'll likely (since no trade has been made yet for us to analyze) have to give up some very good propspects, but the idea that they'll have nothing left in the cupboard to build from is bunk.

Forget what Toronto wants....we are BIDDING AGAINST OURSELVES...there is no reason to give away the farm when you can get Halladay and only give away one blue chipper. The only teams who can compete with us in what we can offer AND take on salary are the Yankees and Red Sox and you know Toronto will require a higher price from them that they probably can't make...which means...who are we bigging against? NO ONE

" but I am sure is weighing very heavily on Amaro's mind."

MG, I usually agree with you, but the quoted statement has no basis in fact.

That Dude: What about the Angels and Dodgers-their interest is imaginary?

"there is no one on this team except Utley whose contract currently has him in Philly past 2011"

I don't think that's all that unusual. Other than Utley, who's irreplaceable? Don't you think contract offers will be made to guys like Werth and Howard before their current ones expire? Granted, it's easier to replace people on paper than in the flesh, but a deep farm system gives a GM flexibility to fill holes --provided you don't trade off prospects four at a time.

On Harang, I'm with MG -- he's about the equal of Blanton (slightly better ERA+, slightly lower K rate). Combined with his age and track record, he's a better bet for continued success than most of our "#4/5" guys. A playoff rotation of Hamels, Blanton and Harang doesn't equal one with Hallady, obviously, but it's an upgrade over the current playoff rotation.

Honestly, how many things went our way last year to give us a WS? Do we win it all if Boston pulled out a Game 7 against Tampa? Halladay gives us a much much better shot to win.

This rotation is not a good playoff rotation right now.

Hamels, Blanton & Harang: Good thing they'll likely be playing the Giants who have no offense. Otherwise, their will be a lot of HRs.

We're still 10 days from the deadline. It's unlikely the Phils have posted a final offer and have taken Drabek completely off the table.

I like how Heyman (who is a complete NY homer) doubled down and repeated his ridiculous Tor-Mets trade offer in his most recent Halladay column; a scenario which Law blew up last night as bogus.

Ken rosenthal is a mental midget.

That's true enough. Wonder what the price would be.

BB - Agreed. That is largely an erroneous conclusion. If the Phils trade for Halladay, it is so that they try to maximize their chances for a WS this year and replace Myers next year/have another good shot to make the playoffs next year too.

The real question is what do they do next offseason with the impending FA of Howard in '11 and Hamels' only under contract through '11 (although they control him thorugh '12). Phils will have to figure out if they are essentially willing to commit to either guy long-term next off-season.

I have reached a state of zen regarding all this Halladay business. I think it's kind of a win-win situation for the Phils.

Make the deal and we've got a strong chance to repeat as WFC this year and next. Don't make the deal, and we get to watch the likes of Drabek, Taylor, Brown, etc. bloom over the next few years in red pinstripes -- while still having a solid chance to make a serious playoff run this year and next.

Now I just want this whole thing to be over already. It's exhausting.

Beard - they'll likely be playing the Rockies. which would be a much tougher matchup for the Phillies than the Giants.

When the Phillies won the World Series last year they did so because we had a dominant stud pitcher in Cole Hammels. He was as close to a lock as you could have. This year so far he is not close to being that same pitcher. Halladay is that stud pitcher who is available in a trade once in a lifetime.He would take the pressure off of our other pitchers in the playoffs. If Hammels comes aroun the Phillies would be poised to repeat.Prospects no matter how good they are projected to be are still a gamble. Halladay is a proven number 1. The Phils should get him now and worry about the future later.

Rube's nickname is "The Negotiator" for a reason. Lets let him put that Stanford education to the test and make a good trade for Halladay that doesn't kill us.

Its Hamels...not Hammels.

It is very rare that a GM quickly has his chance to stamp his reputation on a franchise in any sport. Amaro has a chance to do that now and hopefully it goes well. Stefanski it with the Sixers and the results have been a debacle.

mg - the people Rube answers to understand that a WS win is a crapshoot after making the playoffs. And they know that one more deal not made may or may not have made any difference. For Rube the calculus is pretty simple - maybe add one expensive guy who may or may not make a difference this year vs. maybe trade away a few cheap future major leaguers, one of whom may turn out to be the next Sandberg or Jenkins. He'll do exactly what you would do if you had just been handed his job after years of working for it.

Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer got us through the playoffs last year. Happ looks like an upgrade over Moyer. So...while Halladay would be nice to have, a replacement for Myers should suffice.

Speaking of good moves that the Phils didn't make, did anyone else see the comments by Soriano after last nights game?

He was talking about his swing: "I have the same swing, but it's a long season," he said. "Sometimes I get tired mentally. My body gets tired too. I disappear for like 40 games, and now I feel good. But I don't do anything different."

Can you imagine someone in Philly, on this team, ever saying that they disappear for 40 games? Maybe I'm taking this out of context, but my jaw dropped when I heard that one. If I'm a cubs fan I don't even hear about how much longer they are locked into that guy salary wise...

(I'm not sure how to post a link, but here is the article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-21-cubs-phillies-chicago-jul21,0,117595.story?track=rss)

****He'll do exactly what you would do if you had just been handed his job after years of working for it. ****

First thing I'd do is cut Bruntlett. Then dance around my new office with a stupid grin on my face. Then I'd resign Bruntlett and cut him again just for fun.

Marson not in the lineup today for LHV Ironpigs. Meaningful?

BedBeard, Jason Schmidt pitched last night and won for the Dodgers.

IMHO, they'll wait to see what they'll get from him (2 more starts?) before they make any kind of blockbuster trade.

Also, there have been reports that they may not be able to take on Halladay's contract. I don't think that's true, but I've read it more than one place.

The Angels could pick up Halladay, but again, unless Ricciardi is lying, and I don't think he is, he'll have to be "overwhelmed". From what I've read, the Angels may not have the prospects to 'overwhelm' him.

Lastly, the Blue Jays may think they have a chance to win next year if they keep Halladay, and certainly will sell more season tickets if they do. They've got decent pitching now, and a couple of pitchers have been injured and should be healty next season. If their lineup starts hitting just a little bit more, they could be in contention again next year.

Without Halladay, they probably have no shot.

So, it's a "very tough decision indeed" for Amaro, but, for the above mentioned reasons, Ricciardi's asking price may be too high for any team to meet.

If I'm Amaro I'd be looking elsewhere, and praying that the D'backs lose the next 8-10 games and decide they need to restock by trading Haren, who I would prefer over Hallday anyway.

curt - How is that a simple decision? It fundamentally shapes how the Phils approach the next 1 1/2 years if they trade for Halladay and maybe more.

NEPP, you are deliciously sick!!!! LMAO!!!

RIPPP - But that was always the rip on Soriano even when he was on the Yanks. He did things his way largely regardless of what teammates or coaches said to him. Generally was a poor fundamental guy then but I haven't seen him enough to say what he has been like on the Cubs.

Supposedly Soriano has looked a bit slower (bat-speed wise) at the plate. Don't know if that is injuries or age or maybe both. Not a good sign for a guy who swings wildly and depends on his bat speed to a large degree.

Considering the Cubs owe Soriano $18M from 2010-14 and he has a full no-trade clase, that is a contract I am glad the Phils don't have.

In fact, this Cubs team looks long in the tooth. Bunch of aging players who are past/slightly past their primes for the most part. Wonder if they show more life the next 2 games or enough to make the playoffs again this year.

mg - its simple for Rube. The safe play is the status quo, and he's not a gambler.

curt - Disagree. If the Phils largely underachieve (lets say make the playoffs this year but exit in the 1st round) and fail it accomplish much next 2 years, then Amaro will be looked at a guy who inherited a championship team with a great core and didn't do what required to enable them to win it all again. That might be unfair but that's will be the criterion on how he is judged.

mg - We're talking about the chances of Rube making a blockbuster deadline trade for Halladay, not whether he's going to sit on his hands for years.

"If the playoffs started today, we'd play the Giants in the NLDS."

Actually, the Rockies are ahead of the Giants, but since they're even in the loss column, the playoffs would start after SF played another game, and if they win it, there'd be a SF/COL playoff first. That might mess up their rotation some.

When, realistically, will the prospects be major contributors to the Phils? In that time, how many WS can they compete for?
Also, for those who haven't noticed, Hamels is the least consistent starter of late. I think the Phils need a true #1 starter and thus far it ain't Hamels.

Soriano is already an albatross on their payroll. $18 million for a 91 OPS+ is not money well spent. Considering his defense hurts them even more and it gets worse. He's probably the worst defender in baseball right now. Good thing they can just stash him at DH, right?

Fangraphs has him worth -$400K this year and -0.1 WAR

Greg s: I doubt it. Day game after a night game probably gets you a day off as a catcher even in the minors.

MG, if the Cubbies make they playoffs it will be because of their pitching. Demptster is due back soon.
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curt, excellent point about the FO believing the playoffs are a crapshoot - perhaps the point of the day.

That's one more reason they probably won't "overwhelm" the Blue Jays with an offer.
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clout - from the previous thread - I too noted what the one scout said about preferring Knapp over Drabek. Then again, it's one scout, and opinions vary greatly.

To wit, a list of 2009 Phillie contributors who's teams' released or given up on them, or didn't think they merited Rule 5 protection:

Vic
Eyre
Romero
Condrey
Lopez
Werth
Dobbs
Bako

Coste
Walker


That's fully 8 of the current 25 man roster - almost 1/3!

The scouts and talent elavuators sure weren't right about those guys.


Old Picture of Rodrigo Lopez in a Rockies cap

Sure looks better clean shaven.


"That Dude: What about the Angels and Dodgers-their interest is imaginary?"

According to Gammons the Angels not only do not want to trade prospects, but cannot take on salary. As to the Dodgers, I think it is a smoke screen to drive the price up against us. What are their chips? As good as they have been, their attendance is down this year. I guess they could use the money saved on Manny to pay for it, but I doubt they take on salary.

@ Weitzel: The reason this stance hasn't been given equal attention in the media is because it's stupid. The Phillies right now are a team that is going to win the division and have a chance at going deep into the playoffs. As you know, anything can happen in the playoffs.

Except when you have Roy Halladay, in which case he wins the game he's pitching. This is a no-brainer. This team is built to win right now and is on the verge of creating a dynasty. Go get this man regardless of the cost. If you can keep J.A. Happ, all the better. Be willing to give up Drabek in order to get it done.

There's a much more colorful rant at the site, including a projected playoff matchup and the probable outcome. I just didn't want to lace this post with profanity.

also, according to either Olney or Heyman, a source close to Halladay says what he wants is..

1. NL teams
2. Contender
3. Spring Training in Florida.

Not sure why #3 is important unless Doc lives there, but that eliminates both LA teams.

For a team that's just won a championship, I'd have to admit the Phillies have an impressive farm system. However, without Drabek and at least two more other top prospects, it's really not much worth talking about. J.A. Happ may be able to compensate for one of those guy's, but he doesn't contain the same value. Plus, he's a big part of this Phillies team.

It's easy to believe the Phillies are poised for another WS title, but the way how they are right now is how they've been in September the last two years. Without a team to catch up to or closely poking them in the back at the end, will they respond the same way? Part of their motive for trading for Doc could be keeping him away from the Dodgers (you could imagine they're chances with him). Without at least a pennant though, they couldn't afford to re-sign him (plus he's aging and has had injury problems in the past). Anyone who believes it's not taking Kyle Drabek is not thinking logically. So the question is he worth giving up for him?

from MLBTR:

"Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the Phillies have decided not to include prospect Kyle Drabek in a package for Roy Halladay. If they haven't informed the Blue Jays of their decision, they're about to."


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/heyman-on-halladay-lee-rockies.html

The Heyman piece that's referenced above:

"The latest word from a source familiar with Philadelphia's thinking is that the front-running Phillies have decided they will not include top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek in a four-player package for superstar pitcher Roy Halladay, perhaps raising the chances that Halladay will be dealt elsewhere or maybe even stay with the Jays. The Phillies are believed to have told Toronto of their Drabek decision, but if they haven't yet they will inform the Jays very soon.

"Philadelphia has a bevy of respectable prospects, but opinions around baseball vary as to how decent the deal might be for Toronto without the inclusion of Drabek. The two teams have been discussing prospects, including outfielder Michael Taylor, shortstop Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco. One AL exec flatteringly referred to Taylor as "a beast," but another competing executive opined that Toronto would be unwise to deal with Philly and fail to come away without either Drabek or Jason Knapp, another pitching prospect. Yet another exec says they absolutely have to receive outfielder Dominic Brown if they can't get Drabek. In any case, the Phillies appear to be drawing a line below Drabek, and with them starting to run away in the NL East thanks to nine straight victories, it's almost understandable. Their need doesn't appear to be quite so urgent now."


Playing hardball. I like it.

Does Knapp, Brown, Carrasco, Donald get it done?

But yes, I am still exhausted...

Stupid stupid stupid. I hope it's all posturing.

That Dude: He has a house in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays have their ST home.

I'm starting to think Halladay might not be traded.

Posturing is good. Stick it to them, Rube.

"Hamels, Blanton & Harang: Good thing they'll likely be playing the Giants who have no offense. Otherwise, their will be a lot of HRs."

Yeah? And? Schilling gave up lots of homers, and that was before CBP. Robin Roberts frequently led the league in homers allowed.

I don't think it's stupid to not include Drabek in your first official offer. A successful poker player doesn't show all his cards, right?

This is like watching a high-stakes poker game without being able to see the cards in hand. In other words, it's insane.

The Halladay talk is getting tiresome, but it has led to some good debate. Well any post that doesn't involve the names Mac Tonight or mvptommy.

One little point I'd like to raise. A few guys have said now, "If the playoffs started today we'd be facing the Giants with Lincecum/Cain/Johnson. First off, the Rockies are in the lead in the Wild Card. Secondly, making a move based on the possibility of who you could face two months from now is not a sound idea. The Wild Card is still too close and the Braves or Marlins could still catch up there.

Rube needs to focus on the move he thinks is best for the team going forward based off what he has to give up. I'm very happy to read Drabek is most likely off the table. Something tells me we would've regretted sending him somewhere.

Here's a guy who makes a great point (click on my name for link)

"Sure, Halladay is a special talent. And yes, maybe it's a different calculus if the Phillies and Mets were locked in an epic battle for first place. But they're not. The Phillies, in all probability, are not going to have any trouble making the playoffs. Once they get there, fate will play a greater role in determining whether they repeat as champions than any one player's fastball.

It would be nice to have Roy Halladay. If the Jays decide to sell him at a bargan price you certainly make the deal. They are not, however, in a "must" situation with this, and to the extent Gammons or anyone else argues that they are, they're mistaken. "

"This is like watching a high-stakes poker game without being able to see the cards in hand. In other words, it's insane."

And we won't know who actually won the hand for another 3+ months (at least).

I remember an awesome regular season pitcher with minimal playoff experience... and i think in that experience he was about as good as an 80 woman throwing softtoss...

I believe his name is CC...

What makes us that much better in the post season with Roy? CC couldn't be touched at the end of last year, but the second October rolls around he's done. Whos to say Halladay aint the same?

Great! Our insurmountable 6.5 game lead dictates that we keep our roster intact. I mean, it's not like this team as presently construed has also gone 3-11 over 14 games. It's not like we've had a 1-9 homestand or been swept by the Orioles. Guess I'll go ahead and camp out for playoff tickets!

We don't want Halladay. He finally gets on national tv for the All Star game and look how bad he looked.

"Once they get there, fate will play a greater role in determining whether they repeat as champions than any one player's fastball."

Deus ex machina? Frankly I would like the Phils chances in a 5-game series with Halladay pitching two of those games instead.

I don't think the Phils are going to "stand Pat" and not make any deals, it's just that they may not make "the" deal. And that's OK.

Would you be upset if they were secretly working some multi-team deal for Haren and Qualls or something of that nature? I sure as hell wouldn't be.

Everyone at the deadline was talking about a potential matchup with Brewers, with a top 3 of CC, Sheets, & Suppan...we had to get another #1/#2 to compete...How'd that work out? Don't dwell on potential pitching matchups with potential opponents.

Taking Drabek off the table doesn't bother me. I'm actually pleased by it, because it tells me Amaro isn't look at this trade as though he has to make it no matter what. You don't ever want to have that attitude with any player, for any reason. It's how the worst deals in the business are made.

That's the great trap here: we need a #1 Starter, or #1 anything no matter what, so you do whatever it takes to get this guy. Look, if we have to give up a prospect who projects as the top of a rotation starter in Drabek, another who projects as a 2-3 in Carrasco or Knapp, and a 5 tool outfielder with an excellent bat so far, that's ultimately not a good trade for us, EVEN IF WE WIN THE WORLD SERIES WITH HALLADAY THIS YEAR (there's no Italics, the CAPS are for emphasis). We'll be shooting ourselves in the foot 5 years down the line.

Why? Because playoffs are just as much a crapshoot as anything else. It's why a weaker team beats a strong one if the former is "hot" and the latter isn't. All Halladay has to do is blow his one playoff start in the NLDS and suddenly the trade becomes a waste. So for me, I want to keep these guys, because it improves our odds for making the playoffs in successive years.

Remember, this deal empties half the great prospects in our system at least. It hurts too much for a team looking like it'll make the playoffs regardless. And that's actually good leverage the Phillies can use with the Blue Jays. They don't NEED to make this trade to win the division. That in turn lowers the asking price (I hope).

My last post notwithstanding: I do advocate making a move. I'm not as sold anymore that we need to sell a good portion of the farm for Halladay. Maybe bringing in someone who is a defined #3 for a lesser prospect is the move to make.

In addition to Happ, Blanton has been very good of late and pitched very well in the playoffs last year. Myers coming back in August could be the pen move.

There is enough right now that you may not need to buy the new car, but maybe give the engine a tune up so you can get another few years out of it.

Do we go all out for this year's WS or concentrate winning the next 3-4? These are the kind of conversations I used to think that only Yankee and Red Sox's fans go to have. It's really hard to believe that the Phils have built themselves into that kind of an organization.

Ruben seems like a pretty confident guy to me. I don't think he goes into negotiations thinking about his legacy, but about how to improve the team.

10 more days of this to go . . . . .

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