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Monday, July 27, 2009

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JW, excellent to mention Vic!

He is, indeed, the unsung hero of this hot stretch.

He's getting on base at a phenomenal clip, and judging by the number of throws over to 1B when he's there, he really bothers /distracts pitchers.

Pedro at 87-91 in the rain? Yeah, I think he's healthy.

And thus, if Pedro is healthy, you can trade Happ and thus give us HALLADAY!!!


Yes, I would be a bad GM most likely.

If the Dodgers get Lee and don't have to give up Billingsley or Kershaw, we absolutely HAVE to get Halladay.

Pedro will make 2 more minor league rehab starts before the Phillies decide whether he's MLB-ready, which means the team won't really know what it has before the Friday trade deadline.

There's a difference between being MLB-ready and knowing whether he will be MLB-ready. Unlike a young pitcher, I think it will be pretty easy to project Pedro from the minors to the majors. If he has command of certain pitches and a certain velocity, you can have a pretty good idea of whether he's going to succeed.

That being said, would have been nice if the Phils could have signed Pete Angry 2 weeks earlier.

Woohoo!

This part of this season is just plain fun.

I love Kentucky Joe, I really do, but it would be nice to see a wider variety of pitchers on the occasional weekend basic cable games. I know it's just how the rotation shakes out, but I still haven't seen Hamels this year! I did come home early from work to see Moyer last Wednesday. You all know how that worked out.

The site sure is looking boobalicious lately.

Have a good day.

I think the Phillies and Jays are just posturing. Jays asked for a lot at first, the Phils said no. The Phils gave them an ok deal, the Jays said no. I think you'll see the Phils up the ante by substituting Brown for Taylor. Which would be fine with me. I think Taylor is more ready to help this team.

And if we trade these players, they're most likely not going to hurt us in the long run even if they do turn out to be all stars

Make it happen, Rube!

It will end up being Drabek, Carrasco, Brown and Donald.

If the Jays reject that, it won't happen.

NEPP: I agree. Drabek, Carrasco, Brown and Donald will be the Phils' final offer. I hope Ruben has a back-up plan in case that isn't enough for the Jays.

FWIW, Scott Graham and Buck Martinez (on XM 175) think Ricciardi was insane to reject the Sat offer of Happ, Carrasco, Taylor and Donald.

So Happ is off the table?

phargo, please define "boobalicious"?

NEPP-
Agreed, although when you look at the previous 3 for 1 deal it looks like the substitution of Carrasco and Donald for Happ may be a little steep. Maybe we pry another Jay away in this deal.

Can we get Frasor in the deal for another low level player? Our bullpen is banged up right now, and Frasor could step in for either Condrey or Durbin.

Boobalicious (adj) boob-uh-lish-us: Start your journey now, my Lord.

My Lord, indeed!

Or Marco Scutrro, he's be the RH bench bat they've desperately needed for a while. I really don't think Halladay is going to happen sadly. It might be posturing but it sounds as if both sides are way apart from where they want to be. If the Dodgers get Cliff Lee and the Phils "stand pat" that's going to be a tall order for them to go back to the World Series, Dodgers lineup with Billingsly, Kershaw, and possibly Lee would be lights out in a seven game series.

Last year WSBGM's brought you Campaign Cheer, which coincided with the Phillies playing well through the rest of August until being crowned World Series Champions in October. This year I did a simple little post called "New Season" back on July 3rd, and at the time the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and Mets were all separated by only 2 games. Since that post, the Phils have gone 17-3 and now have a bit of a cushion in the NL East over the other three squads (6.5). I know this isn't the reason for their recent success, but just like last year with Campaign Cheer, I'm just sayin'...

The funny thing is that the Braves have played very well in that span...we've just gone nuts to widen the gap.

Pete Happy: I don't disagree, but are you saying the Phils could tell that from 1 1/3 innings yesterday? His next start is Friday, the trade deadline. Not sure if it's day or night game, but the deadline is 4 p.m. You get my point?

I took 3 dumps instead of my usual 2 on July 3rd and we have gone 17-3 since. Just sayin.

Reports have the Jays asking the Dodgers for Kershaw, who's been deemed untouchable. I can't imagine the Indians not asking for that, or at least making it hard on the Dodgers to get Lee without Kershaw.

@NEPP

Scott Graham is alive?
How many mailbombs do I need to send?

NEPP - I can't believe people would rip Ricciardi for turning down that deal. I don't think the Jays will trade Halladay for anything less than a Drabek-headlined package.

dlhunter: Best post of the week!

That is, unless the Jays want to win 70 games next year and Ricciardi wants to look for a new job. Then the Happ/Carrasco/Donald/Taylor deal is a no-brainer.

Drabek, Happ, Kendrick & Donald for Halliday and Scutaro.

Then cut Bruntlett.

My fingers are crossed.

Jason: Loved the post today. Good wrapup of the weekend and especially Vic. Shane has been a fantastic player to watch over the past few years. Sure, he still makes some dumb baseball plays (decisions on when to steal, overthrowing cutoff men), but there is no way we would be where we are without him. His offensive and defensive contributions to this team are huge. Is he the best CF in the NL? I'd say it's between him, Beltran, and Kemp. I'd probably rank him behind Beltran, but right there with Kemp.

And I can't wait for this week to be over! Either get the deal done or lets get back to baseball!

The Dodgers wont be able to keep Billingsly and Kershaw if they want Lee. I think the Indians would want Kershaw in the deal plus 3 or 4 more prospects

Concerning this Halladay stuff, I recommend Phillies fans read veteran Dodger blogger John Weisman, now at the LA Times.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgerthoughts/2009/07/plaschke.html

There is the same hysteria in LA in the media about the need to get Halladay. Weisman puts the issue in much needed perspective. With all due respect to Jason and others, I wish someone on the Phillie side had offered similar perspective.

As a general rule of thumb, any position taken by Bill Plaschke is highly dubious.

clout: a whole game would have been nice. I'm hoping that the 1 innings plus the bullpenn session after plus the simulated game last week would give them a good idea. He knows how to pitch, it's just velocity and location. We'll see.

I still think that Moyer is the odd man out, if present trends continue, unless the FO thinks that he can't contribute from the BP and Lopez can.

AF: Kendrick, IMO, has very little value. Including him in a trade for Halladay would be as a throw in, certainly not a main piece. That other pitcher I believe would have to be Carrasco, or maybe Worley or Stutes. I would even include Knapp if it got the deal done. Then the Phils could work like heck before the signing deadline to get Colvin signed.

Site question: Is there anyway to have the fields for name and email prefilled all the time?

Brad C: to my knowledge, only if you have Firefox or Safari (which fill in forms for you).

What is Keith Law's problem with the Phils? Did the Phanatic give him a wedgie once? Its obvious he has a problem with the Phils, that goes deeper then "not liking their prospects". What's the real story there?

Him saying last night, that JA Happ was a "fringe major leaguer" is ridiculous and makes him look like a tool. Hey Keith, "fringe major leaguers" are guys like Tyler Walker, not guys in the top 5 in the NL in ERA heading towards August 1.

I am not saying Happ is going to be a star or is a star pitcher, after about 1 full year of service. But to come out and say the guy is a "fringe major leaguer", when its very obvious at this point, that he isn't, just makes him look petty and uninformed.

BTW, Dan Patrick is reporting today that he has heard rumors from credible sources that Pete Rose may be reinstated for HOF consideration soon.

Knapp seems to have all but disappeared from the packages mentioned over the weekend. I wonder if that is because the Jays are either not that impressed, or if he is not available.

Regardless, put me in the boat of people anxious to have this behind us. I am definitely not fully enjoying the great stretch because of the distraction. This is a once-in-a-lifetime type of team, and as I learned last year, it is far too easy to make the minor issues overblown when you watch your squad day in and day out.

Yeah, I heard similar rumblings on ESPN Radio this morning re: Rose. Sounds like the groundwork is being laid in the media to make that happen.

We should not include Drabek/Taylor in any deal. I would give up Brown, Happ, Carrasco, Marson/Donald (maybe both of them).

Yes, BRown supposedly has the higher upside than Taylor, BUT Brown has never hit above A and Taylor has already proven it at all levels (albeit a short time in LHV).

After ALL of this speculation, it would be a bummer for our biggest pitching acquistion to be Pedro.

I mean, maybe it will work out for the best--Pedro pitches well, Halladay ends up getting injured anyway, and the prospects the Phils save turn out to be good major leaguers--but if this deal, or some smaller surprise deal for Lee or Washburn, doesn't happen, I will be bummed (although I should have known better than to get my hopes up).

Brad C: You need Firefox, then get the "Grease Monkey" add-on, then go to userscripts.org, search for "typepad", and find the one that keeps your info filled in all the time. It's a lifesaver.

Here is the exact link to that user script, if you're interested:

http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/22048

Carrasco and Donald I can live without. But if the Phillies give up Drabek, Happ, and Brown just for Halladay, it's a bad trade for us. 2 of the 3 I can live with, but not all of them, because even if The Phils offer just those 3 players the Blue Jays will still say no. They want those 3 and more. The Jays want those 3 headlining a package.

Happ, Taylor, Carrasco, Donald was a good package for the Phillies, and if Taylor is replaced by Brown, and that's enough, fine. But there's no way the Phillies should ever, ever give up all 3. Halladay isn't worth that.

dennyb

Keith Law used to be employed by the Blue Jays.

Ed: USED to be employed. I think Ricciardi (and denny b) are on the record calling him an "idiot".

I'm still confused. Mac Tonight told us emphatically for a week that the Blue Jays had to absolutely trade Roy Halladay. They are in financial straits and need to cut payroll immediately.

Then near the end of last thread we get an article posted where Riccardi said the Blue Jays do not need to cut salary.

I thought Mac Tonight would have a better handle on what the Blue Jays finance sheet looks like.

Re Pete Rose: anybody have the current odds on that?

It's obvious that the Jays want Drabek and either Taylor or Brown. The deal doesn't get done without these pieces.

I think Ricciardi is just posturing.

Like Martino said on WIP yesterday after the game, the teams are in intense negotiations. The Jays asked for the moon with Drabek, Happ & Brown, the Phils countered with less than their final offer. Add Brown or Drabek to that offer, and the Jays may then be "wowed" to the sufficient degree. I just can't see how the Blue Jays hold on to Halladay now.

Drabek, Brown & whomever else!

Enough with the back & forth. Halladay is very much worth it. If we don't pony up the Red Sox can offer a helluva package & I think they're looking to reel in a big fish.

Keith Law was employed by the Jays for like 4 years. He was fired & if memory serves correct he later reported that Vernon Wells was gonna leave the team & then Ricciardi publically called him 'an idiot'.
I don't think Law has much love for the Jays either.

The Rangers tell Riccardi to stick it, with their demands.

Smoak (their 2nd ranked prospect and considered a "A" level guy), Holland (their 4th ranked prospect and considered a B+) and 2 other "very highly" ranked guys, were what JP wanted.

Texas says no way.

He's not going anywhere, folks. The "stars and moon" that JP wants, he ain't getting. Time to move on and quit wasting our time, on somebody that may not have made the team any better (because he's not a top-flight bullpen guy that the team TRULY needs) and would have cost way, way too much.

Do you think Rose being considered for the Hall of Fame has anything to do with the "should people who did PEDs be allowed into the HoF" debate? What's worse? Doing steroids or gambling on your own team?

fellow phils fan: not used to all this? not sure what to worry about? try this one on:

"the phils are peaking at the wrong time."

I have to believe that the Phillies will make one final offer before the deadline to try and land Halladay. I doubt it will include Drabek, and I doubt the Jays will accept.

I'm tired of reading, from a few posters, doubts that Halladay could actually help this team.

Sorry I missed the rest of the Moyer discussion last thread, especially since my name was invoked a couple of times.

FACT: Moyer is the worst pitcher in our starting rotation right now.

I'm not sure why we're arguing semantics. Is he "washed up?" Is he "trending up?" Who cares? He's pitching worse than any starter in our rotation right now by any measure.
-----------------

My last two thoughts:

Truth Injection wrote:
"CJ: It's better to work with monthly breakdowns as it is a defined criteria as opposed to randomly deciding where your trend starts and working from there.

All you are engaging in is distortion of stats to further your point"

Please, please, please tell me this is like 5th level comedy. It's so ironic I'm praying that this is meant to be a joke. I'm just going to assume it is, because it's hilarious.
-------------------

clout wrote"
"CJ: 4.91 isn't better than 8.15?

Interesting."

clout: 4.91 isn't worse than 3.77?

Interesting.

JW: No matter how much you try, it always comes back to Halladay.

Before Raul went down, I would have scoffed at anyone else earning team MVP chatter. I'd still take Utley over Victorino, but the way Vic's been playing lately...

Clout: From yesterday, you told me why Brown was a better power-hitting prospect than Taylor. But I never asked that. I asked you why you described Brett Wallace, the key to the Holliday deal for the A's, as a "power-hitting" 3rd baseman. Wallace is 22 and was slugging .427 between Double-A and Triple-A (Triple-A in the hitter-friendly PCL).

As someone who has been consistently down on Michael Taylor's power potential (despite Taylor being 23 and slugging .560 this year), I am just wondering why you would be so high on Wallace's power, considering he's shown nothing close to it, and comments from scouts before this season noted there were questions about his power.

Would you reather trade Happ or CC in a deal for a top rotation pitcher, if the rival team valued them equally?

*rival

Meant the involved team the trade was with, not necessarily rival.


Anyway, the point of the question is that I believe Drabek is a MUST to include for the bjs, which i can understand. Would you rather package him with Happ or CC, if it was deemed necessary?

Carrasco, I think. I'd say Carrasco>Happ in the long run, but Happ does have more value for this current MLB roster.*

*I'd probably do Happ/Drabek/Brown.

Would rather package him with CC, but would not have a problem packaging with Happ either.

I am fine with a rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Moyer, Pedro/Lopez for the rest of this season and playoffs. That is better than Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Moyer, Pedro/Lopez, hands down.

tg: Thanks for the info and link. Can't use Firefox at work, but will install it at home.

"The Dodgers wont be able to keep Billingsly and Kershaw if they want Lee. I think the Indians would want Kershaw in the deal plus 3 or 4 more prospects"

Billingsley is a better pitcher than Lee right now and is 6 years younger. Kershaw is as good as Lee right now, but the issue there is they aren't sure if Kershaw is ready to go deep into games.

If the Dodgers put up one of these guys for Lee, it would be enough alone.

BB

"I'm tired of reading, from a few posters, doubts that Halladay could actually help this team."

No one, but no one, doubts that Halladay can help the team in the short run. The issue is 1) how much, 2) compared to the longer run good of the team, 3) given that he's signed only for a year and change, and is 32, how short is the short run.

CJ: I didn't expect you to understand it. I figured your silence was just you staring blankly at the computer before moving on. Sadly for you, it wasn't.

Here's something you should've been taught in junior high or high school match courses. Statistics can prove whatever you want it too. There are things you can do to intentionally manipulate the data to prove your point.


So let's go simple here. You have decided the way to break games up is 7,5,7 for him. That means in the middle 5 games he has given up 15 runs in 31 IP for an ERA of 4.35. The last 7 he has given up 22 runs in 40.1 IP for an ERA of 4.91.

However, let's say you change the breakdown to 7,6,6. That would move the first Toronto game to the middle bracket. That means in 6 games he gave up 18 ER in 37 IP for an ERA of 4.38. In the last 6 then he has given up 16 ER in 34.1 IP for an ERA of 4.22. So let's not act like you are picking numbers randomly.

Using the monthly ERA does not include picking and choosing where I want my trends to begin and end. Also the sample size is prtty much going to be the same month to month. He had an extra start in May because of it being a 5 week month and without the All-Star break but he will have 5 starts in June and 5 in July. It's not artifically creating sample groups.

But you want to work backwards from your hypothesis that Moyer is done. So you create the criteria to prove that. Data that is not manipulated proves you wrong. But you're not looking to be proven wrong. Keep engaging in logical fallacies all you want but don't expect to be taken seriously.

Ed:
"Time to move on and quit wasting our time, on somebody that may not have made the team any better"

I've seen a few posts like this over the last few days/week. Halladay no doubt helps this team a good amount. He's not a bullpen addition, but the fact that he pitches late into games is good for the pen. *


Using monthly ERA is basically just as stupid as picking random dates. It's not like the team makes any decisions based on what month it is, or starts the rotation over at the beginning of every month. So it's basically the same thing as just picking random dates.

Has anyone else heard about a lupole that would allow Halladay or any other player who was signed after the 2006 season and is traded can opt out the following year? That would be a real shame if Halladay did that to test free agency one year earlier than he is scheduled to

I'd rather see Rose in the HOF instead of Bonds, Sosa, Manny and McGwire.

They could have a special room where the plaques are on a far wall, but you can't get into the room because the opened door is covered with jail bars! Shoeless Joe can get inducted, too.

All NL East teams won yesterday. Weak division? Blah!

Jack: It isn't. It's picking a sample size that isn't affected by what I want to improve. It's data that is not tainted by my own beliefs.

When you do experiments or try to write something to test a hypothesis you can't pick data that is just designed to prove your point. I mean you can, but it would lead to all kinds of questions about your data and would invalidate what you are looking to do.

As I pointed out in the example. If you change the sample size to 6 and 6 for the last 12 starts and not have it at 5 and 7 it changes the data. CJ's hypothesis is that Moyer is getting worse again after a 5 start period. To prove that he split the data into 5 and 7 games. When you do that versus the 6 and 6 scenario it changes the data to make you right.

In the 7,5,7 method CJ likes Moyer's ERA goes like this: 8.97, 4.35, 4.91.

If you use the 7,6,6 method it goes: 8.97, 4.38, 4.22.

So why do you think CJ would choose the 7,5,7 method?

He's engaging in intellectual dishonesty by presenting the data the way he does. That's why use neutral data markers is best in a situation like this.

It is pretty evident now this this team is going to make the playoffs in some form (probably via the NL East) but has some clear pitching issues especially in the starting rotation and the bullpen.

That's why posters and the common fan care so are fixated on the Halladay discussion. No, it is doesn't "guarantee you a trip to the World Series" but he certainly enables the Phils to match up in a short series very well with another team and Amaro doesn't have to go out and get another frontline starter this offseason (likely via trade).

Truth: You are exchanging your arbitrariness for someone's elses.

I agree there is less "mainpulation" if you use the calendar, but that also has its flaws. You're rarely actually finding anything meaningful looking at monthly splits. At least when you're "manipulating" the data by using your own markers you are telling an interesting narrative. Using monthly markers rarely finds anything interesting and rarely tells any story more "true" than picking either more detailed or more broad demarcations.

This is a ridiculous argument. Moyer is the worst pitcher in our rotation right now. How bout you take away all starts against the Marlins and Nationals and send his numbers? That's probably as good a sense as how he would fare against stiffer competition as anything.

Jamie Moyer is the weakest link in our starting rotation. I'm not sure how anyone could argue anyone else?

But on Thursdays in June and Sept, he's arguably the best.

sneed: agree. The only way I see Moyer in the rotation once Pedro returns (barring a sudden improvement in performance) is if the Phils decide that Lopez gives so much more out of the BP than Moyer that it makes sense to move Lopez.

Truth:

Thank you for pretty much proving my point. Picking any dates by which to measure a pitcher's "trend" is arbitrary whether you choose to use months or some other measure. I'm disappointed you weren't being ironic... because it was hilarious.

Is this more fair?

First 6: 7.26 ERA
Next 6: 5.09 ERA
Last 7: 4.91 ERA

Look! He's "trending" down!!!! All the way down to a 5 ERA. Let's put him in the Hall of Fame.

And he's still the absolute worst pitcher in our starting rotation by any measure.

My point to this whole discussion is that the trend is irrelevant because whoever is inventing the trend can manipulate the numbers any way they wish.

Moyer is the first pitcher to be removed from the rotation when a better option comes along. Why? Because he's the worst starting pitcher we got.

Care to argue that?

No, Lopez will be replaced before Moyer. Lopez is a journeyman starter making around 1 million this year, I believe. Moyer is a local hero making 6.5 million.

I would make a rather large wager that when Pedro is ready, he will replace Rodrgio Lopez, not Jamie Moyer.

Reason to hope that Rose never is reinstated and put up for the HoF ballot (although I think he belongs in the HoF, despite his gambling): if he were elected, (i) the media spectacle leading up to his enshrinement would be nauseating and (ii) his induction speech would almost certainly be the most self-aggrandizing, self-pitying pile of horse manure of all time.

The Phillies' refusal to include Happ AND Drabek in any deal is as much an economic decision as a baseball one (although the two areas are intertwined). If we trade Happ, then the only guy from our present rotation who is under contract beyond 2010 would be Hamels -- and that's only for 1 season. Unless you're willing to spend like the Yankees, it's virtually impossible to assemble a credible 5-man rotation through trades and free agency alone. You need to have 1 or 2 younger guys who came up through your minor league system & can work for cheap. If they trade BOTH Happ and Drabek, the pipeline is pretty dry. You've got Carrasco, who everyone agrees has ability, but never seems to live up to it (and that's in the minors!). You've got Knapp, who everyone agrees has ability, but is years away. And then you've got the second-tier guys like KK, Worley, Carpenter, Stutes, and Bastardo. If you're lucky, maybe 1 of those guys improves enough in the next year to be a major league starter. The operative phrase is: "if you're lucky."

In a nutshell, the Phillies can afford to trade Happ OR Drabek but I sure don't fault them for being unwilling to trade BOTH.

Jack: If you're trying to engage someone in a logical and fair discussion then trying to be interesting is not the point. All you are doing is trying to prove your point and not actually have a back-and forth.

I'll take accuracy over interesting everytime because one involves a level of respect for the opposing opinion.

Also, I love how you say using monthly markers doesn't find anything interesting. That's absurd. The monthly markers are the same data that CJ uses, set up to not be disingenious.

Sneed: Moyer has struggled against some teams other than those two and has pitched well against some other than those 2. He has 8 "quality starts" on the year. 2 against FLA, 1 against WAS. The rest are against the Mets (2), LAD, Tampa, and Cincinnati. You can easily say his ERA against the league is worse than it is against FLA, and WASH. However, you can't just eliminate stats without balancing it out on the other end

Truth Injection: So what is "accurate" about this discussion? Please give me an "accurate" story as to why Moyer should not be replaced in the rotation.

Jack's right, Lopez will be the first to go, but I think this is going to be a more difficult decision for the front office than we think. Obviously they won't release Moyer, but I would imagine, should he have another disastrous start or two before Pedro is ready, that they seriously consider putting him on the shelf while we see what Pedro's got. In the meantime, Myers is working out, throwing bullpen, and preparing for a minor league rehab assignment. I don't know what, if anything, that means for this team, but if he can get his pitch count up, he's going to end up replacing Moyer in the rotation. Clearly this is a move they will wait until September to make and I would assume Moyer would still pitch on the playoff roster.

On Moyer being demoted, you just can't demote your winningest starter. He will be DLed.

cjp, your Rose to the HOF predictions are right on the mark.

I like what I see from Rolo. I'd leave him in the rotation, too.

Jack: You're right, in that the reasons Moyer wouldn't be replaced have nothing to do with performance.

Truth: Are you suggesting Moyer isn't the worst starter in our rotation right now?

One thing, I don't get though is why Dominic Brown is "off the table" when they've got Taylor, who is both more major league ready & seemingly just as good (in fact, seemingly better, judging from actual performance, as opposed to scouts' speculation).

If a Roy Halladay trade dies because they don't want to include both Happ & Carrasco, I can understand. If it dies because they won't include Dominic Brown instead of Taylor, I DON'T understand.

Bay Area Phan: I agree with you, I am reluctant to trade both of them away too. Hamels and Drabek could be 1 and 2 for years to come.

I would love to see a trade for Halladay involving Happ, Carrassco, Brown and Donald

But I hear from inside sources that Drabek is a head case

I disagree with Sneed re: Myers. I can't imagine Myers will come back as a starter. He will be in the bullpen if he appears at all for the Phils this year.

I may be wrong, but I believe Myers can come back in September and still be on the playoff roster since he is coming off the DL, correct? Does anyone know if this is the case?

phargo, thanks!

I thought you were referring to some of the posters on the board - you know - abunch of boobs.

Truth: I was being facetious. If anything, I'm with CJ that this is just semantics here. If Moyer improves down the stretch considerably, he would still be the 4th best starter in our current rotation; if he continues to only have slight improvements, and you get a healthy bullpen, aided by Myers and Lopez (whom they might like to keep rather than waive), Moyer may not even have a spot on the playoff roster. Whether or not he's had two decent months and two horrible months, and in what order they've occured matters not to me. I still don't trust him to start a playoff game this year based on a body of work that I've mostly witness with my own eyes. I check the stats as much as you do, but my own personal scouting report is that he's about finished. We can mix it anyway we want, and he's had fewer "disastrous" starts since early May, but overall, he's not getting the job done.

This team won't score 5.5 runs a game in the playoffs against good SP every night.

Drabek being a "headcase" is sooo 2 years ago.

Jack: That is the case. Myers is eligible for the postseason roster even if he doesn't come back until September.

Jack: There's nothing to disagree with since I didn't take a solid position. I said IF he can get his pitch count up, he would replace Moyer in the rotation. Most likely, they won't even try to get his pitch count up, and therefore he will pitch out of the pen.

I'd prefer if he could replace Lidge as an effective closer!

Jack - I thought a player had to be on the MLB roster by Sept. 1 to be an eligible player on the postseason roster but not sure. Good question to ask.

bap: I don't get the sense that Brown is the deal-breaker. I sense the Phils want to make it seem like he is so that they can "relent" on that point and get the deal done.

Everything I've read is that Myers believes he can come back, maybe as soon as August, but only in a bullpen role. But even if that's true, we have no idea how he'll pitch. It would behoove the Phillies to assume that they will get nothing from Myers for the rest of the season.

MG: If a player was on the active roster prior to Sept. 1st but on the DL on Sept. 1st, they'd still be eligible for the postseason roster.

SPF: Many pitchers are headcases. I think it comes with the territory. Carlton was considered by many to be a weirdo extraordinaire, but I think we know how he turned out.

I loathe the trade deadline and just want this to all be over.

A poster noted earlier in the thread about worrying about the Phils "peaking at the wrong time." I disagree. They have yet to play their best ball as a team. Lately the defense has been less than what we've come to expect, the pitching can still improve with additions/returns from DL, Howard still needs to kick it into gear, etc.

b_a_p: A deal for Halladay will not be held up because of the differences between Brown and Taylor. Even if Brown has a higher upside, as scouts suggest, trading Brown and keeping Taylor does not seem to be a huge step down. I SERIOUSLY doubt Amaro will turn down the opportunity to get the best pitcher in the game because he'd rather have a lefty with 30-homer potential rather than a righty who hits .300 at Double-A with gap power. That'd be insane.

The real problem is that the Jays want both Happ and Drabek, which causes the problems you mentioned earlier.

BAP: The Phillies have made it clear that they aren't expecting anything our of Myers this year. Regardless, I think we know what Myers in a best case scenario is, and even if he was healthy, they would still be after Halladay, albeit at a lower maximum price.

bap: We've been over this before on here. Brown is considered a better prospect by many in baseball because of his better power potential, better plate discipline, and better athleticism, I believe.

Brown's numbers in High-A this year are REALLY good, especially when you consider it's a pitcher-friendly league in general. He is hitting .295/.377/.500 at High-A this year at 21 (and those numbers include a recent slump since coming back from injury). At age 21, Taylor was hitting .227/.300/.365 in short-season ball.

I'm not saying I think Brown will end up way better than Taylor. I'm simply stating the case as to why the Phillies and many others believe Brown is the better prospect.

CJ: I agree completely. The Phils said Happ-Taylor-Carrasco-Donald so that later they can offer Happ-Brown-Carrasco-Donald. But now Buster Olney says the two sides slammed the phone down and are no longer speaking.

Just food for thought:

Pitchers and Catchers reported on February 14th. Myers made his first start against the Braves on April 5th. That's exactly a 50 day span.

Myers threw a bullpen session this past Saturday, July 25th. 50 days from the 25th is September 13th, giving us 21 days until the end of the regular season, in which we play 20 games. Remember the season goes into the first week of October this year because of the WBC.

So, is it inconceivable that he could make it a goal to be a starter this year? I would say no.

The argument against my logic is probably that Myers has the entire offseason to get prepared for February 14th, and comes into camp in better shape than he is now, coming off major surgery. To which I counter, is Brett Myers ever in good shape?

If we don't get Halladay, maybe we take a shot with Myers? It's an idea.

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EST. 2005

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